The key moment during the Tesla Inc. robotaxi event Thursday night came when a member of the audience interrupted Chief Executive Elon Musk’s spiel about the benefits of autonomous vehicles. He had just opined about Airbnb-like fleets of money-earning robotaxis that you could care for like a shepherd tends their flock — stirring stuff, this — presaging “a glorious future” when someone shouted: “When will they be available?”
Musk’s response was interesting. He began by saying that Tesla expects “fully autonomous, unsupervised” Full Self-Driving to be deployed in California and Texas next year. As a reminder, the curiously named FSD is actually an advanced driver assistance feature that requires you to be alert and holding the steering wheel. Musk specified this rollout would involve the Models 3 and Y.
That rather raised the question about all the other models Tesla sells that are supposedly on the cusp of autonomy. A minute or two later, Musk then almost casually included “and the Model S and X, too!” Then someone chimed in: “What about the Cybertruck?” So Musk duly also included that one before upping the ante to “all cars that we make.” When that drew further questions about whether this applied to different hardware generations on existing Teslas, Musk brushed them off with a laugh and a “let’s not get nuanced here.”
Or maybe let’s? I’m all for audience participation, but given that the question of when Tesla will actually produce working robotaxis has been out there for at least five years, this all came across as a bit improvised. It didn’t help that a CEO prepared to while away two hours spitballing with former President Donald Trump on X only had about 20 minutes worth of stuff to say about a vaunted revolution in transportation.
Then again, since the whole event was rooted in a reaction to a news story earlier this year about Tesla’s missing low-cost electric vehicle, this perhaps merely continued the theme. Even the claim about hands-free FSD in certain states next year was qualified by Musk with a “wherever regulators approve it,” which muddies the timeline and has the benefit of blaming bureaucrats for holding back progress if, once again, a target is missed.
The centerpiece of the event was a two-seater “cybercab” sporting gull-wing doors but dispensing with pedals and a steering wheel, that Tesla says will cost less than $30,000 and begin production before 2027. Again, Musk deployed his by-now hackneyed caveat about tending to be “optimistic” with timing. And pricing, one might add, given the continued absence of the low-cost electric vehicle he pitched in 2023 that teed up this year’s hard pivot to robotaxis in the first place.
You don’t generally schedule major strategic announcements for 10 p.m. eastern if your main intention is to wow financial institutions with details. Besides seemingly making autonomy commitments for various Tesla models on the fly, there were no new disclosures about Tesla’s supposedly robust safety stats for its driver assistance features or of how many vehicle buyers are actually paying for these systems. Similarly, there was no discussion of exactly what needs to happen ahead of the supposedly imminent unsupervised FSD rollout in Texas and California, or of how Tesla will run remote teleops for cybercabs, nor a discussion about the crucial issue of who holds legal liability for vehicles running without hands on the wheel (or even a wheel, period).
Like the surprise “robovan,” a futuristic-looking autonomous people-and-goods carrier that Musk dropped as an easter egg later on, the cybercab has the look of a concept car, such as you might find at any big autos show. Judging from the livestream I watched, it appeared to drive around the rented studio lot by itself. That is cool, of course. But a vehicle driving slowly around a closed set rather evokes the sense of watching a movie rather than real life. It also doesn’t live up to the promise of imminent robotaxis capable of driving anywhere that Musk delivered at Tesla’s autonomy day five years ago. Plus, it serves to highlight the contrast with Alphabet Inc.’s Waymo LLC, which operates robotaxis carrying actual people on public roads today.
Whereas concept cars rarely garner much interest from investors, this teasing of new products — solar roofs, the Semi truck, an updated roadster and, of course, robotaxis themselves — has so far worked for Tesla where it counts. Even when these wonders are late or completely MIA, the sheer allure combined with belief in Musk have worked their magic on the stock price. Bullish analysts now routinely ascribe the majority of Tesla’s value to visions of robotaxis and robots, leaving a lot riding on Thursday’s glimpse of the future.
And yet, for all the futurism, so much of the night’s show felt like a rerun. The caveats about schedules and the next-yearism are virtually catchphrases at this point. Musk also played many of the old hits about robotaxis being far safer than humans; how passenger vehicles today sit idle most of the time; how people will be able to fall asleep and wake up at their destination in these things. Even the dancing Optimus robots, and Musk’s claim that everyone on Earth will ultimately own one, are not new anymore.
Few companies have Tesla’s knack for painting a picture of tomorrow. But it’s a worrying sign when even the faithful gathered in front of Musk himself are demanding to know when tomorrow will actually arrive.
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