The Peril of Relying on Incomplete Information

Dan solinAdvisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.

Dan’s new book for millennials, Wealthier: The Investing Field Guide for Millennials, is now available on Amazon.

If I didn’t think I were “right,” I wouldn’t offer an opinion. When I do opine, it’s always in good faith.

I think I have all the information I need to provide a view that others can confidently rely on, whether personal or professional advice.

There’s just one problem: I’m often wrong.

Why is that?

The illusion of information adequacy

According to a recent study, I suffer from the “illusion of information adequacy,” which refers to our tendency to believe we have sufficient information to understand a situation and make informed decisions, even when we are only exposed to a limited or biased set of information.

The researchers, associated with Johns Hopkins University, Stanford University, and Ohio State University, set out to explore the extent to which we mistakenly believe we have adequate information and the consequences of this belief on our judgments and decisions. They sought to investigate several critical aspects of this phenomenon:

Perception of information sufficiency: The study aimed to determine whether participants who received only partial information would still perceive their information as adequate, like those who received complete information.

Impact on decision-making: The researchers were interested in how this illusion of adequacy influenced participants' decision-making processes. They wanted to see if participants felt competent in making decisions based on incomplete information and whether their initial recommendations remained unchanged even when presented with additional, potentially contradictory information.

Cognitive biases in the real world: The study aimed to highlight the implications of this cognitive bias in real-world situations, particularly in contexts characterized by polarized opinions and selective exposure to information.

The researchers sought to illustrate how participants might not recognize the limitations of their knowledge, which can lead to poor decision-making and misunderstandings in interpersonal relationships and conflicts.