China’s major technology stocks have been left behind in this year’s global frenzy over artificial intelligence, and a lack of demand for actual AI usage coupled with geopolitical pressures make it unlikely they can cash in anytime soon.
The Nasdaq 100 has soared about 78% since ChatGPT was introduced two years ago, compared with Hang Seng Tech Index’s 16% gain. The underperformance reflects investor pessimism toward China’s economic revival efforts, on top of concerns over monetization and trade bans.
The latest earnings season disappointed, with neither Beijing’s recent stimulus nor the AI euphoria yet to offer much upside. Tencent Holdings Ltd. President Martin Lau said the firm’s cloud computing business won’t be “exploding” from AI demand the way it has for US peers, as Chinese customers just aren’t spending that much on the technology.
“Obviously, the next thing we’re hoping for is AI, but there are some factors that make it a bit more challenging in China,” said Richard Clode, who manages Janus Henderson’s $1.85 billion Global Technology Leaders Fund in London. With fewer startups, slower digitalization and restricted access to the latest chips, “the new trend is just not as powerful in China as in some other bits of the world,” he said.
The biggest driver of the huge gains in US tech stocks has been Nvidia Corp., the AI juggernaut that China has little chance of rivaling near term. While the Biden administration’s latest restrictions on tech exports stop short of prior threats, incoming US president Donald Trump has taken a hardline stance against China and his plans remain to be seen.
Meanwhile, China’s internet pioneers are reeling from the impact of weak consumer demand and fierce competition on their e-commerce and game operations. AI business is providing little comfort as the nation lags in adoption of the new technology.
Cloud revenue for the September quarter rose 11% from a year ago at Baidu Inc. and 7% at Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. amid sluggish AI-related business. That compares with over 30% growth at Microsoft Corp.’s Azure and an almost 20% gain for Amazon.com Inc.’s AWS.
Despite trade restrictions, Baidu and Tencent have said over the past year that they have enough chips to train their large language models for the foreseeable future. However, monetization of AI operations has been a key challenge.
Alibaba, Tencent and state-backed competitors have been locked in a lengthy price war to attract cloud customers who are reluctant to spend. Baidu’s recent results showed AI-powered search content is failing to drive advertising sales.
Unlike US peers, China’s tech industry doesn’t have a mature enterprise software industry racing to incorporate AI, or lots of startups consuming computing power from the cloud, said Daisy Li, a fund manager at EFG Asset Management HK Ltd. “Although investors may speculate on Chinese AI application firms based on the trading of their US counterparts, the fundamentals of the two markets are actually quite different.”
With confidence in Beijing’s economic measures slipping and lack of support from corporate earnings, the Hang Seng Tech Index is down 18% from an October peak. The Nasdaq 100 has gained more than 7% in the same span.
One positive from this is that Chinese tech stocks are now more than 40% cheaper than American peers. The Hang Seng Tech trades at 15 times estimated forward earnings versus more than 26 times for the US tech gauge. That may not be enough to lure growth-focused investors back for now.
In China, “I think the internet story is just maturing, which means to a lower growth outlook,” said Janus Henderson’s Clode, who has been investing in Chinese tech stocks for about 20 years. “There’s not much growth and there are a lot of players trying to get that growth. So that’s not the best backdrop for investing.”
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