2024 Midyear Outlook estimates two rate cuts and a 17-20 percent total return for the S&P 500
Carson Group released its 2024 Midyear Outlook, “Eyes on the Prize.” The investments research team forecasts an economy that continues to see a solid rate of expansion as a result of strong jobs growth and robust consumer balance sheets. As the research shows, investors are still well-positioned to take advantage of a young bull market ripe with potential and buoyed by strong earnings growth and profit margins, a resilient consumer and easing inflation.
“The data simply does not support the doom-and-gloom forecasts and headlines we’ve seen. The resilience of the U.S. economy is not to be underestimated,” commented Ryan Detrick, CMT, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group. “We were one of the few places who expected no recession last year and advised investors that stocks would perform well. Now, 18 months later, we still have many positives, thanks to strong consumer balance sheets, healthy corporate profits and likely a more dovish Fed.”
The Carson Group Investment team believes inflation will continue to fall and the Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates by September, with a base case of two cuts in 2024.
“Earnings growth will continue to reinforce this young bull market while economic strength will support cyclical stocks. The combination of strong business growth and a resilient economy will create a wealth of opportunities for investors moving forward,” explained Sonu Varghese, Ph.D., Vice President, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group.
Key takeaways:
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Carson remains overweight stocks relative to bonds, with a focus on the U.S.: A potential major driver for stocks during the second half of this year will be an improvement in inflation, which likely will lead to two cuts from the Federal Reserve this year. This should be a boost to both small and midcaps, areas where Carson remains overweight.
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Globally, Carson Group is more neutral on developed markets outside the U.S. and remains underweight in emerging markets (mainly due to China).
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Industrials and financials are ripe for continued strength after a nice start to 2024. These cyclical areas will benefit from broadening sector leadership.
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Separate political beliefs from investments. So far, 2024 is playing out like other election years under a first-term President, with nice gains. The S&P 500 was higher the past 10 times a president was up for re-election, and this year is following the trend.
Carson Group Investment Research believes in strategic long-term decision making. It’s important when making tactical investing decisions to first, do no harm. The midyear outlook is a general guide for investors to help them achieve their long-term financial goals and focus on the real prize—living a life of freedom and purpose.
Visit https://www.carsongroup.com/economic-outlook/ to download the 2024 Midyear Outlook
About Carson Group
Founded in 1983 by Ron Carson and headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska, Carson Group serves financial advisors and investors through its three businesses -- Carson Wealth, Carson Coaching and Carson Partners. Carson Group has created an ecosystem dedicated to helping financial advisors unleash the full potential of their firms by providing marketing, compliance, technology, investment strategies, succession planning, M&A support, and coaching. The company currently manages $36 billion* in AUM and serves more than 50,000 families among its advisor network of 150+ partner offices, including 50+ Carson Wealth locations. For more information, visit www.carsongroup.com.
*Combined AUM of CWM, LLC and NWCM.
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