Rising inflation in January, the potential added pressure from tariffs, and ongoing volatility create a strong backdrop for gold price appreciation this year. The precious metal currently makes up the largest holding in the actively managed Neuberger Berman Commodity Strategy ETF (NBCM) as of mid-February.
Last year’s dynamic inflation and rate environment resulted in a 26% appreciation in gold prices, reported Forbes, as investors flocked to the safe-haven precious metal. Prices continued to make significant gains in the opening months of 2025. Gold climbed to $2,950 per troy ounce in trading on Tuesday after notching record highs last week. As the precious metal flirts with the key $3,000 psychological threshold, ongoing macroeconomic risks create the potential for further tailwinds for gold prices this year.
“Gold is trading at an all-time high. Surveys suggest that even longer-term consumer inflation expectations are stuck above 3%, and market inflation expectations are creeping upward,” Jeff Blazek, co-CIO, multi-asset strategies and Erik Knutzen, CFA, Co-CIO, multi-asset strategies at NB explained in the firm’s CIO Weekly Perspectives. “Most prominently, seemingly every commentator worries about the inflationary impact of tariffs.”
The threat of climbing inflation and the potential for interest rate hikes instead of cuts this year could lead to further market volatility. It’s an environment where safe havens, such as gold, generally hold great appeal for investors and banks alike. Many central banks also continue to buy gold, driving consistent demand and the potential for further pricing pressures.
