The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index increased more than expected in February, rebounding from the previous month's record low. The index came in at 72.0, a 2.0% rise from the previous month but a 3.6% drop from one year ago. Pending home sales were expected to rise 0.9% month-over-month.
"Despite the modest monthly increase, contract signings remain well below normal historical levels," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "A meaningful decline in mortgage rates would help both demand and supply – demand by boosting affordability, and supply by lessening the power of the mortgage rate lock-in effect."
"Considering the Federal Reserve's recent forecast for slower economic growth, we expect mortgage rates to slide moderately lower," said Yun. "But the current high national debt will prevent mortgage rates from falling drastically – and certainly not to the 4%-to-5% range seen during President Trump's first term."
"Home price growth will moderate due to more supply coming onto the market," added Yun. "Having income and wages rise faster than home prices are welcome to improve affordability."
Pending Home Sales Background
The pending home sales index (PHSI) was created by the National Association of Relators to track home sales where the contract is signed, but the transaction has not yet closed. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. The PHSI is a leading economic indicator of future existing home sales.
The chart below gives us a snapshot of the index since 2001, the first year data was analyzed.
Over this time frame, the US population has grown by 20.3%. For a better look at the underlying trend, here is an overlay with the nominal index and the population-adjusted variant. The focus is pending home sales growth since 2001.
The above chart shows the percent off turn-of-the-century values. The index for the most recent month is currently 44% below its all-time high from August 2020. The population-adjusted index is 51% off its high from April 2005.
