Bloomberg News
Xi Readies Bargaining Chips for US Trade War
China got a head start on a looming trade war with the US by showcasing a new range of tools it’s prepared to use if Donald Trump makes good on his threat to punish the world’s second-biggest economy with tariffs.
Hedge-Fund Startups Dwindle as Managers Battle Pressure on Fees
The near-$5 trillion hedge fund industry is having one of the toughest years in decades in convincing fee-conscious investors to fork out cash for new market players.
Exxon's AI Power Play Aims to Beat Nuclear
To most of us, a power plant is a source of electricity. To Exxon Mobil Corp., it’s a machine that converts natural gas into money. And this is a propitious time for doing that.
Big Tech Is Betting on AI. Should You?
In the two years since ChatGPT burst onto the scene, artificial intelligence has come to dominate investor consciousness more than any other technological breakthrough in the past two decades.
SpaceX Valuation Jumps to About $350 Billion in Insider Deal
SpaceX and its investors have agreed to purchase as much as $1.25 billion of insider shares in a transaction valuing Elon Musk’s rocket and satellite maker at about $350 billion, according to an internal email seen by Bloomberg.
Inflation Anxiety Just Got a Reality Check
Inflation optimists were riding high at the start of 2024. Price pressures seemed to be cooling quickly, and market pricing suggested that the Federal Reserve might lower policy rates by a whopping 1.75 percentage points this year.
US Inflation in Line With Forecasts Solidifies Bets on Fed Cut
US consumer prices rose at a firm pace in November that was in line with expectations, solidifying expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next week.
Treasuries Rise as Inflation Data Fuels Wagers on a Fed Rate Cut
US Treasuries gained and traders boosted their bets on a Federal Reserve interest-rate reduction next week after a report showed consumer prices last month accelerated in line with expectations.
Does Bitcoin at $100,000 Signal a Last Laugh for HODLers?
What is there to say with Bitcoin at $100,000 for those of us who thought $10,000 looked nuts.
From TikTok to Nvidia, the Tech War Is Getting Uglier
ByteDance Ltd.’s options for TikTok in the US are looking increasingly desolate, as the tech war between Washington and Beijing boils over.
Google Rolls Out Faster Gemini AI Model to Power Agents
Google debuted a new version of its flagship artificial intelligence model that it said is twice as fast as its previous version and will power virtual agents that assist users.
India Shouldn’t Let Its Data Turn Chinese
India’s institutional strength used to be reflected in the reliability of its national accounts.
Worried About Stocks? $1 Trillion in Buybacks Will Help
December is a big month for stock buybacks, and by month’s end, companies are expected to spend more money repurchasing shares this year than ever before.
Wall Street Wealth Chiefs See Hottest Money in Private Markets
Morgan Stanley and Citigroup Inc. wealth executives are seeing private markets increasingly shape their businesses, marking a major shift from liquid assets that historically drove financial markets.
Dollar Optimism Is Spreading From Hedge Funds to Asset Managers
A resilient US economy and deepening geopolitical tensions around the world are making asset managers rethink their expectations for a weaker dollar.
Nvidia Hit With China Probe in Escalation of Global Tech Wars
China has opened a probe into Nvidia Corp. over suspicions that the US chipmaker broke anti-monopoly laws around a 2020 deal, taking aim at the AI heavyweight as Washington ramps up sanctions.
The US Can’t Manufacture Its Way to a Thriving Middle Class
he economic-policy consensus that prevails in the US is right about one thing.
ESG Is in Its Flop Era
As a concept, environmentally responsible investing is in its flop era. Right-wing backlash has turned “ESG” into a four-letter word in terrified corporate boardrooms.
Crypto Doesn’t Deserve a Tax Exemption
I am (mostly) bullish on crypto and (usually) skeptical of higher taxes, especially on capital gains.
Wall Street Banks Predict Biggest China Rate Cuts in Decade
China’s central bank will deliver the biggest interest-rate cuts in a decade next year as policymakers intensify efforts to shore up growth and arrest deflation, in the view of a number of Wall Street lenders.
JPMorgan Asset Prefers Real Estate and PE to Direct Lending
Private credit may be all the rage among investors, but there are better alternatives, according to JPMorgan Asset Management.
GM Is on a Road to Nowhere in China
Getting a stay of execution doesn’t mean you’re no longer on death row.
BlackRock’s Big Bet on GIP Puts Fink’s Firm in Local Spotlight
In the port city of Duluth, Minnesota, local activists and Washington-based groups are coalescing to scrutinize — and possibly stall — a $6.2 billion acquisition of a power utility led by Global Infrastructure Partners.
Africans Demand a Bigger Share of Their Natural Resources Wealth
If you thought the detention and subsequent release of Resolute Mining Ltd.’s chief executive by the government of Mali two weeks ago was a one-off, you would have been wrong.
A Bitcoin Reserve Would Be a Bad Deal for Americans
Bitcoin has shot up more than 40% since Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election, in part on hopes that he’ll champion a government reserve devoted entirely to the cryptocurrency.
A $500 Billion Haul Reignites Passive Controversy on Wall Street
The passive-investing juggernaut is picking up speed — and it’s stirring up fresh angst about the dangers posed by the index-tracking boom across Wall Street.
Asness’ AI Twin Heralds End of Human Fund Managers
Hedge fund executive Cliff Asness says artificial intelligence is becoming “annoyingly better” at doing parts of his job.
Bitcoin Soars Past $100,000 on Trump’s Pro-Crypto Pick for SEC
President-elect Donald Trump’s pick of a crypto proponent to be the next head of the US securities regulator lifted Bitcoin to $100,000 for the first time as traders warmed to the prospect of relaxed regulations.
Hedge Funds Make MicroStrategy Wall Street’s Hottest Trade
To sate his multibillion dollar rampant appetite for Bitcoin, Michael Saylor has tapped demand from retail investors transfixed by MicroStrategy Inc.’s more than 500% rally this year. He’s also benefited from hedge funds who care far less where the stock trades.
This Is Not France’s "Truss" Moment
Quite a few observers have described the dramatic fall of the Barnier government in France not just as a political crisis but also an economic and financial crisis.
$8 Billion for Intel Won’t Fix America’s Chip Problem
Since its enactment in 2022, the Chips and Science Act — a $280 billion splurge intended to revive US semiconductor manufacturing — has been at best a mixed success. A $7.9 billion grant to Intel Corp., announced by President Joe Biden’s administration last week, shows how this gravy train may be headed off the rails.
Emerging Currencies Hold Gains After Powell While Won Rebounds
Emerging-market currencies held gains after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said policymakers could move cautiously as they lower interest rates. The South Korean won rebounded on Wednesday as President Yoon Suk Yeol rapidly reversed his martial law declaration.
Fed’s Powell Expects Good Relations With Trump Administration
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell downplayed the prospects of tension with the incoming Trump administration and said he expects officials can move cautiously as they continue lowering interest rates.
China Tech Stocks Left Behind in Traders’ Hunt for AI Winners
China’s major technology stocks have been left behind in this year’s global frenzy over artificial intelligence, and a lack of demand for actual AI usage coupled with geopolitical pressures make it unlikely they can cash in anytime soon.
Health-Care Spending Is Sinking the Federal Budget
The $1.8 trillion federal budget deficit in the fiscal year that ended in September was the third biggest ever in dollar terms, trailing only the pandemic deficits of the 2020 and 2021 fiscal years. As a share of gross domestic product, a better gauge for historical comparisons, it was, at 6.4%, the biggest ever outside of a large war or global crisis.
How the ECB Can Safely Store Its Crisis Toolkit
Next week’s European Central Bank meeting is more important than it might first appear.
BlackRock Pays $12 Billion to Catch Up in Private Credit
The trend is your friend. Or, in Larry Fink’s case, your primary acquisition tickbox.
Tariff Inflation Will Likely Be Transitory, But Fed Won’t Say So
Donald Trump’s tariff barrage may trigger a response from the Federal Reserve that the new president won’t like.
Bond Traders Position for US Treasury Market to Extend Rebound
Bond traders are positioning for the US Treasuries market to extend its recent advance, showing confidence that yields will continue to pull back from the peaks hit after Donald Trump’s election victory.
Dollar Faces Treacherous December on Trump, Rate Risks
Dollar bulls emboldened by Donald Trump’s win are entering a month that has historically punished the greenback.
Enron 2.0 — So Bad It’s Good?
It’s the anniversary of the first-ever controlled nuclear fission chain reaction. And it’s the day that Enron filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 2001.
Smarter Taxes and Higher Revenues Are Vital in 2025
One of the most important issues for Congress next year is tax reform.
The Fed’s Next Big Policy Rethink Needs Rethinking
Next year, the US Federal Reserve will undertake an exercise with global implications: the periodic monetary policy framework review, at which it rethinks its approach to managing the world’s largest economy.
Investment Banks Will Lose Billions of Dollars to Private Rivals
Big banks have been warning their investors about the competition they face from private credit, electronic market makers and others for some time.
The Wrong Oil Price Is Truthfully a Problem for OPEC+
he best scandals are those that start when someone, somewhere, decides to say something utterly shocking: the truth! A senior official of the OPEC+ oil cartel has said publicly what many thought privately — the group has been keeping oil prices too high, effectively subsidizing its rivals.
Stocks Versus Bonds Dilemma Hits EM Traders as Trump Returns
Investors are scrambling to decide if Donald Trump’s impending return to the White House will sustain or derail the rally in emerging-market bonds witnessed under Joe Biden.
Treasuries Drop as Market Braces for Big Data Week, Fed Speakers
US Treasuries fell on Monday as traders awaited a hefty week of economic data and speeches from Federal Reserve officials that will likely determine expectations for the central bank’s policy decision later this month.
Biggest Hedge Funds Make the Most of the Trump Trade in November
The world’s biggest hedge funds made the most of trading opportunities sparked by Donald Trump’s reelection last month, keeping the industry on track to post its strongest returns in at least four years.
The Vintage Year for US Stock Markets That Few People Expected
2024 is set to enter Wall Street’s hall of fame of bull years.
This $7 Trillion Pile Won’t Save the Bulls
The money-market industry just reached a significant milestone with Crane Data reporting that these cash-like funds have amassed a record $7 trillion in assets. There are many ways to think about this development.
ChatGPT’s $8 Trillion Birthday Gift to Big Tech
Saturday marks two years since OpenAI posted an oddly named widget called ChatGPT to the web. Its staffers placed bets on how many users it would accumulate, the highest estimate being 100,000. How wrong they were.
US Bitcoin ETFs Head for Record Monthly Inflow on Trump Optimism
A group of one dozen US Bitcoin exchange-traded funds is on the cusp of a record monthly net inflow, bolstered by the digital asset’s historic surge toward $100,000 on President-elect Donald Trump’s embrace of crypto.
Corporate Bond ETFs Are Fueling a Rise in Monster Block Trades
The boom in portfolio trading, where investors can buy or sell scores of corporate bonds with just a few clicks of a mouse, is fueling mega trades that were rare in credit markets just a few years ago.
Buffett’s Life Advice May Be More Valuable Than His Portfolio
On Monday, Warren Buffett announced that he was donating more than $1 billion in Berkshire Hathaway Inc. shares to four family foundations — a continuation of his commitment to give away the vast majority of his wealth to charity rather than pass it on to his family.
Payment Scams Are Surging. Banks Need Help
’Tis the season for a surge in financial frauds and scams, a huge and growing problem that caused nearly $500 billion in losses globally last year, along with untold human suffering.
Kneecapping Google Would Be Bad For Tech Competition
We call them “Silicon Valley rivals,” but when you think about it, the big tech titans have mostly stayed in their respective lanes for the past 20 years.
Bessent Has $6.7 Trillion Mountain of Worry Waiting at Treasury
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen came under fire this year from economists such as Nouriel “Dr. Doom” Roubini for stepping up the issuance of short-term Treasury bills.
Trump’s Trade Chief Advocates ‘Strategic Decoupling’ From China
President-elect Donald Trump’s pick for the top trade position sees China as a “generational challenge” to the US and has advocated for a strategic decoupling from the country.
JPMorgan Sees US Equities Extending Global Dominance in 2025
The dominance of US equities over the rest of the world is unlikely to abate unless geopolitical and trade policy risks fade, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists.
In Hot Credit Market, Simple Fixed-Maturity Funds Are Booming
Credit investors squeezed by the tightest spreads in almost 20 years are opting for bare-bones strategies, creating a boom for Europe’s fixed-maturity funds.
US GDP Grows at Solid 2.8% Pace, Helped by Consumer Spending
The US economy expanded at a solid pace in the third quarter, largely powered by a broad-based advance in consumer spending as inflation continued to cool.
Google Chrome's Divorce Is the DOJ's Antitrust Warm-Up Act
News broke this week that the US Department of Justice wants to force Alphabet Inc.’s Google to sell Chrome, its dominant web browser. That has led to much head scratching in the tech industry.
Rocket Lab Shows SpaceX Isn’t the Only Game in Orbit
While space startup Rocket Lab USA Inc. prepares to test-launch its new medium-sized rocket next year, its shares have already blasted into orbit.
MicroStrategy Accelerates Bitcoin Buying With Record Purchase
MicroStrategy Inc. bought a record $5.4 billion in Bitcoin, the third major purchase announced this month by the crypto hedge fund proxy.
Apple Should Have Learned a Chinese Lesson on EVs
High-tech manufacturing in China over the past year has often felt like watching a looking-glass parody of the US.
Bond Market Halts Brutal Run as Buyers Pounce on 4.5% Yields
The US bond market is finally showing signs of steadying after a two-month selloff, with investors starting to swoop in whenever yields test new peaks.
Dollar, US Yields Fall on Bets Bessent Will Dilute Trump Plans
The dollar fell and US government bonds rallied after Donald Trump picked Scott Bessent to run the Treasury, a Wall Street veteran who investors expect will take the sting out of the administration’s more aggressive trade and economic policy proposals.
Booming MicroStrategy ETFs Are Straining Limits at Prime Brokers
Amid a red-hot run in the shares of MicroStrategy Inc. last month, Matt Tuttle got some bad news from the prime brokers for his booming leveraged ETF linked to the shares of the crypto-centric company.
Backdoor Private Credit Funds Are Luring Billions From Insurers
The world’s biggest private credit managers are turning to an obscure investment product to help raise billions from deep-pocketed insurance companies, testing the limits of industry safeguards meant to curb risk.
How Germany Can Make Peace With Trump on Trade
The second coming of Donald Trump is unquestionably bad news for Germany.
Charles Schwab Eyes Spot Crypto Trading Once Regulations Change
Charles Schwab Corp.’s incoming chief executive officer, Rick Wurster, said the firm is looking to offer spot cryptocurrency trading once US regulations make doing so easier — something that’s more likely once President-elect Donald Trump takes office.
Snowflake Shares Soar by Most in Four Years After Strong Outlook
Snowflake Inc. shares surged by the most in more than four years after the company issued a sales outlook that surpassed investors’ expectations, suggesting new products are attracting strong demand.
Goldman Gives the Blockchain Revolution a Home
Most important advances in technology occur when someone combines a variety of innovations in different fields in a commercially successful way.
MicroStrategy's Infinite Money Glitch Won’t Last
“Overheated” is how short-sellers Citron Research described MicroStrategy Inc. on Thursday.
Blackstone Private Credit Fund Taps Debt Market for $1.5 Billion
Blackstone Inc.’s main private credit fund stormed the investment-grade bond market to raise a combined $1.5 billion in a single day, adding to the rush of direct lenders trying to lock in cheaper financing costs.
Trump Is Making the 60/40 Portfolio Great Again
The post-election stock market is already giving investors a wild ride. Big individual stock selloffs, massive rallies, and a dizzying array of market narratives built on Wall Street’s best attempts to read President-elect Donald Trump’s mind.
Fidelity Ramps Up Quant Franchise With Five New Active ETFs
Fidelity Investments is expanding its reach in the competitive world of systematic strategies for the masses, with the launch of five new active ETFs.
Banks Hoping For Looser Trump Reins Are Too Giddy
US banks enjoyed a sharp stock price jump on Donald Trump’s election victory; two weeks later, they’ve held onto those gains. There’s one good reason for this — and several poor ones, all to do with regulation.
Buffett’s $325 Billion Cash Hoard Is an Early Warning Signal
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. reported its stock holdings last week — a widely anticipated quarterly update of Warren Buffett’s latest trades. There were some notable ones, including the addition of Domino’s Pizza Inc. to Berkshire’s portfolio and more trimming of its stake in Apple Inc.
Bitcoin Climbs Closer to $100,000 on Trump’s Support for Crypto
Bitcoin approached the historic $100,000 level, fueled by optimism that President-elect Donald Trump’s support for crypto heralds a boom as the US pivots to friendly regulations in place of a crackdown.
Elon Musk’s Neuralink Cleared to Start Brain Chip Trial in Canada
Canada’s University Health Network said its Toronto Western Hospital would be the first non-US site of a trial for a device created by Neuralink Corp., Elon Musk’s brain-implant company.
Bitcoin Rises to Record With MicroStrategy Stepping Up Purchases
Bitcoin climbed to a record high for a second consecutive day, with MicroStrategy Inc. accelerating the pace of its massive purchases of the cryptocurrency.
Roubini Launches Treasury-Alternative ETF to Ride Trump-Era Risk
Nouriel Roubini is seizing on Donald Trump’s inflation-threatening policy agenda to make a case for an alternative haven trade to Treasuries in a world of elevated volatility.
Will Trump’s $280 Billion Housing Trophy Stay Out of Reach?
In the months before Donald Trump entered the White House the first time around, speculation mounted that he would release mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from the federal conservatorship they’d operated under since being bailed out during the global financial crisis.
AI’s Slowdown Is Everyone Else’s Opportunity
The multi-trillion-dollar artificial intelligence boom was built on certainty that generative models would keep getting exponentially better. Spoiler alert: they aren’t.
Bitcoin Sets Another Record Amid US’s Growing Embrace of Crypto
Bitcoin set another all-time high, supported by a series of developments highlighting the deepening embrace of the digital-asset industry in the US under crypto cheerleader Donald Trump.
Trump Should Bring On a Great American Housing Boom
Most Americans, from both parties, say the government needs to increase the supply of affordable housing. For President-elect Donald Trump, that should offer a good opportunity to summon his instincts for development — and self-promotion — to get America building again. Call it the “Trump Building Boom.”
Nvidia Is Helping Google Design Quantum Computing Processors
Nvidia Corp., the chipmaker at the center of a boom in artificial intelligence use, is teaming up with Alphabet Inc.’s Google to pursue another technology once relegated to science fiction: quantum computing.
Powell’s Wait-and-See on Trump Policies Is a Switch From 2016
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell says he wants to wait and see what policies the incoming Trump administration will implement before the central bank forecasts what it means for the economy.
Citadel’s Ken Griffin Says Multistrategy Hedge Fund Boom Is Over
The era of explosive growth in multistrategy hedge funds is over, according to billionaire Ken Griffin, who runs one of the biggest such firms.
Google’s Chrome to Fetch Up to $20 Billion If Judge Orders Sale
Alphabet Inc.’s Chrome browser could fetch as much as $20 billion if a judge agrees to a Justice Department proposal to sell the business, in what would be a historic crackdown on one of the world’s biggest tech companies.
America Got the World Driving. Now It’s Going Home
Germany’s Carl Benz might have invented the automobile, but it’s the United States that got us to drive them.
Crypto’s Coming Back. Here’s How to Avert Disaster
The crypto party seems to be getting restarted. Bitcoin is surging and big players are celebrating amid expectations that President-elect Donald Trump will make the US, as he put it, “the crypto capital of the world.”
Holiday Outlooks Due From Major Retailers in Test of US Consumer
Last week’s selloff, which comes on the heels of what has been a generally successful earnings season for Corporate America, has investors bracing for one final test: a reading on the state of the consumer from a series of retail bellwethers who report in the coming days.
Prominent Wall Street Bear Wilson Sets Bullish US Stocks Target
Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson, well known for his bearish views on US equities in recent years, has an outright bullish outlook for 2025.
Trump’s Scoreboard Is the S&P 500, and It’s Wall Street’s Best Hope
If Wall Street learned one thing during Donald Trump’s first term as president, it’s that the stock market is a way he keeps score. At various points he took credit for equities rallies, urged Americans to buy the dip, and even considered firing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who he blamed for a selloff.
Musk Escalates Altman Legal Feud, Casting OpenAI as Monopolist
Elon Musk is ramping up his feud with Sam Altman, alleging in a court filing that OpenAI is trying to corner the market for generative artificial intelligence and sacrificing safety in a race to get ahead.
Traders See Just a 50% Chance That Fed Cuts Rates in December
Traders see an interest-rate cut next month as a coin toss as resilient economic data empowers Federal Reserve officials to take a potentially more-cautious approach to easing.
Gold Faces Worst Week Since 2021 as Fed Signals No Rate-Cut Rush
Gold traded near a two-month low, on course for its worst week since June 2021 as traders wind back expectations for a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut next month.
Treasury Yield Surge Draws Buyers After 10-Year Tops 4.5%
The highest Treasury yields in months — reached Friday after a batch of strong economic data cast additional doubt on whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again next month — proved appealing to bond investors.
China Trade War Is One Trump Doesn’t Have to Fight
This isn’t the same China that greeted Donald Trump after his first win in 2016. The economy, once widely believed on a course to knock the US off its perch as the preeminent commercial power, has since revealed some acute vulnerabilities that don’t seem to be going away. And the president-elect seems to be gearing up for a trade war he no longer needs to fight.
Big Tech Traders Are in Wait-and-See Mode on Trump’s Second Term
Big Tech stocks have had a relatively muted reaction to Donald Trump’s election victory, as investors parse how his second term might play out. So far, many are reserving judgment.
Fink Pushes BlackRock Into High-Stakes Bet on Private Markets
Larry Fink turned to big deals to get BlackRock Inc. out in front of a decade of money gushing into index funds. Now he’s doing the same to make sure his firm isn’t left behind in the stampede into private assets.
Druckenmiller Leads Family Offices Boosting US Bank Stock Bets
Stanley Druckenmiller’s family office led investment firms for the world’s rich in boosting allocations to US bank shares last quarter, putting them in line to profit from a rally in financial stocks.
A Near-$1 Trillion ETF Rush This Year Breaks Wall Street Records
This year was already a landmark one for exchange-traded funds, but as of Friday the ETF universe can add another superlative: biggest annual inflows on record.
Trump’s ‘Epic’ Deregulation Must Preserve Financial Stability
Given that he was just elected, Donald Trump’s plans for financial regulation are, like so much else, a mystery. Yet his campaign’s disdain for the administrative state — and the public’s growing exasperation with red tape — suggests the country is in for a period of bureaucratic humility. Here’s hoping the financial system doesn’t become vulnerable as a result.
Trump Is Right: Expat Taxes Are Too Complicated
President-elect Donald Trump pledged last month to eliminate “the Double Taxation of overseas Americans.” Never mind the clumsy wording — taxes on US citizens working abroad aren’t excessive so much as excessively complicated — this is one campaign promise that may actually be fulfilled, given the Republican control of both houses of Congress. That would be a good thing not only for those Americans but also for America.
US Producer Prices Rise, Risking Pressure in Fed’s Favored Gauge
US producer prices picked up in October, fueled in part by gains in portfolio management costs and other categories that feed into the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.
Bitcoin Briefly Tops $93,000 on Trump Agenda, Fed Policy Outlook
Bitcoin spiked above $93,000 for a short period as expectations of further interest-rate reductions by the Federal Reserve added to the impetus from President-elect Donald Trump’s pro-crypto stance.
Private Equity Finds Yet Another Way to Keep the Money Coming In
Private equity’s recent splurge of piling ever more debt onto already highly leveraged bets has sparked fears about financial-system risks. Banks, however, are positioning themselves to take advantage.
Bitcoin Rises Above $90,000 as Rally Resumes on Trump Optimism
A surge in Bitcoin that paused earlier Wednesday is regaining steam, sending the original cryptocurrency above $90,000 for the first time, as traders assess the remaining market impact of President-elect Donald Trump’s rhetorical support for crypto.
Trump May Be Good for Crypto — But Bad for Bitcoin
The price of Bitcoin has jumped by more than $20,000 since the Nov. 5 elections in the US, with about one-third of the gains coming with favorable early results for Republicans, and the rest trickling in as Donald Trump’s victory became certain and his party continued to pick up seats in the Senate and House of Representatives.
Wall Street Sees Dollar Soaring More, But Splits on How Much
The US dollar’s rally is gaining momentum alongside Donald Trump’s threat of sweeping tariffs, leaving currency strategists in agreement it has further to rise while war-gaming just how far it will go.
Buffett’s Berkshire Is Being Packaged Into a Leveraged ETF
Warren Buffett created Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s Class B shares almost 30 years ago to stymie money managers who sought to split the high-priced conglomerate’s stock.
Wall Street’s Higher-for-Longer Rate Brigade Plunges Into Loans
Investors are piling into US leveraged loan ETFs, betting that President-elect Donald Trump’s policies will potentially boost inflation and push the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer.
Powell Doesn’t Fear Trump. He Also Can’t Contain Him
The US Federal Reserve and its chair, Jerome Powell, are rightly choosing not to act on any assumptions about what Donald Trump might do as president. That said, if he follows through on his more extreme campaign promises, they’ll struggle to contain the economic consequences — a problem that equity investors ignore at their peril.
The Bitcoin Bubble Isn’t All About Trump
I think I finally understand value of cryptocurrencies: They add some volatility to your portfolio. Maybe that’s why they have found such a champion in Donald Trump, who if nothing else adds some volatility to our politics.
BlackRock Targets Money-Market Fund Business in New ETF Push
BlackRock Inc. is throwing its weight behind an early push to bring exchange-traded funds to money-market investors.
Wall Street Bets on New Riches Ahead in Markets All-In on Trump
All year, a slew of Wall Street pros have questioned the durability of an indiscriminate risk rally that has fattened stock prices by trillions of dollars, sent Bitcoin soaring, fueled a credit bonanza, and more.
Bitcoin Options Show Traders Betting on $100,000 by Year-End
Bitcoin options traders buoyed by Donald Trump’s election victory are already eyeing a landmark price of $100,000 for the original cryptocurrency, after it surged to a fresh record on hopes for a more crypto-friendly administration.
Can Chevron Win Back Wall Street in 2025?
Mike Wirth became the king of Big Oil on Oct. 7, 2020. That was the day the chief executive officer of Chevron Corp. elbowed out archival Exxon Mobil Corp. to become America’s largest oil corporation by market value. It was the zenith of a honeymoon between Wall Street and Wirth.
Trump Inherits an Economy at a Tricky Time
Donald Trump will inherit, to all appearances, a solid economy when he assumes the presidency in January. After all, the stock market is at record highs, unemployment is low by historical standards and gross domestic product has been expanding at a healthy pace of around 2.5% so far this year.
Bond Market on Risky Path as Traders Regroup From Wild Week
The bond-market selloff unleashed by Donald Trump’s presidential victory last week ended almost as quickly as it began.
Oil Falls on China Demand Woes Even as Market Remains Rangebound
Oil fell after Chinese stimulus measures disappointed speculators, but not enough to jolt prices from the narrowest trading band since July.
AI Takeoff Turns Data Centers Into America’s New Building Boom
US companies are plowing money into building data centers as they race to get ahead in artificial intelligence.
Banks’ New Trick Could Mean Trouble for Everyone
If you’re unfamiliar with synthetic risk transfers, there’s a chance you’ll hear all about them when the next financial crisis hits. They’re the latest way for big banks to game rules designed to safeguard the system, and they’re growing fast. So far, regulators seem all but oblivious.
Online Travel Firms Show Post-Pandemic Boom Still Has Steam
A few months ago, travel companies were warning that the great post-pandemic boom in consumer travel was losing steam.
S&P 500 Is on Track for Its 50th Record This Year
Stocks rose at the end of their best week in 2024 after solid consumer sentiment data and bets that newly elected President Donald Trump’s pro-growth agenda will keep fueling Corporate America.
Debt, Arms and Nuclear Power Are Key to German Renaissance
The collapse of Germany’s deeply unloved and dysfunctional three-party coalition offers Europe’s biggest economy an opportunity for political and economic renewal. Two important questions arise: Will Germany put aside political squabbles and grab its golden opportunity.
Austin Exposes New York City’s Broken Housing Market
Here’s something that would have seemed pretty much inconceivable two years ago: According to Zillow, home prices have now risen more in New York City and its environs since the beginning of 2020 than in metropolitan Austin, Texas.
Tesla and Detroit’s Automakers Price In a Trump Joyride. Good Luck.
Detroit voted overwhelmingly for Vice President Kamala Harris, but investors in “Detroit” backed President-elect Donald Trump. Shares in General Motors Co. and Ford Motor Co. jumped on news of Trump’s election win, with GM reaching a new high for the year and Ford up by almost 6% on Wednesday, more than double the S&P 500 Index’s gain.
Bentley Motors Delays Its Master Plan for Electric Vehicles
Bentley Motors Ltd. is delaying a plan to offer only fully electric vehicles by 2030 as EV sales continue to disappoint projections across the industry.
Nvidia Is Clear Winner In a Lackluster Big Tech Earnings Season
Results from tech giants largely underwhelmed this earnings season — but they included plenty of good news for Nvidia Corp.
Does Nvidia’s CEO Dream of Electric Androids?
One of the memorable moments of Nvidia Corp.’s most recent conference for developers came toward the end of the chip giant’s semi-annual event.
AI Will Transform Medicine. There's Just One Catch
Cerebrospinal fluid leaks, caused by tears or holes in the spinal cord, are rare and difficult to identify. Because the symptoms aren’t uncommon — including nausea, neck pain, ringing in the ears and debilitating positional headaches — patients can spend years without a proper diagnosis. Some have been told they have allergies.
Traders Sense an Inflation-Constrained Fed Is Back
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower its benchmark federal funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point on Thursday to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%. The big question is how much lower the Fed might go from there during this rate-cutting cycle. The bond market suggests it won’t be as low as some expect or as low as policymakers signaled less than two months back.
Commodities Slide as Trump Win Boosts Dollar, Threatens Trade
Commodities broadly declined on prospects that a stronger dollar and potential trade disputes under a Donald Trump presidency will weaken the appeal of raw materials in global markets.
The LNG Market Will Remain Tight Until 2027
At the height of summer, Europe had hoped that the coming winter would be its last difficult one to secure enough natural gas. By the middle of next year, liquefied natural gas was expected to turn into a buyer’s market, easing the squeeze the region has suffered since Russia invaded Ukraine. No longer.
The ‘Happiness Plateau’ Doesn’t Exist
The idea that money can’t buy you happiness is one of the world’s most persistent tropes. King Midas is granted his wish that everything he touches will turn to gold only to starve to death.
Credit Risk Drops in a Knee-Jerk Reaction to Trump’s Win
Credit risk fell in reaction to Donald Trump’s US presidential win, even though his presidency may be marred by tariffs and possible trade wars.
Palantir Earnings Provide Litmus Test for 140% AI-Fueled Rally
Palantir Technologies Inc.’s premium valuation will be put to the test when the data analysis and software company reports results after the market close on Monday.
Apple Explores Push Into Smart Glasses With ‘Atlas’ User Study
Apple Inc. is exploring a push into smart glasses with an internal study of products currently on the market, setting the stage for the company to follow Meta Platforms Inc. into an increasingly popular category.
Treasuries Slip on Election Day as Volatility Hits One-Year High
Treasuries fell as a strong report on services ahead of Thursday’s Federal Reserve interest-rate decision added to volatility around the US election.
US Bitcoin ETFs Suffer Record Outflows Ahead of Election Day
US exchange-traded funds investing in Bitcoin recorded their highest daily net outflow to date as markets brace for Election Day.
US Voting Day Is Here at Last After a Bruising 2024 Campaign
The 2024 presidential campaign was marked by two assassination attempts, a candidate switch, divisive rhetoric and warnings about the fate of democracy. And that may have only been the beginning.
Bond Traders Greet a Momentous Week With Their Wagers Reeled In
After driving Treasury yields higher for weeks, traders are taking chips off the table before the US election, reluctant to take bold bond bets with the presidential race too close to call.
Typical US Homebuyer More Likely to Be Older, Single and a Woman
The age of a typical homebuyer jumped to an all-time high of 56 in the US, with many young people locked out of the housing market while older owners tap their accumulated home equity for cash purchases or to make large down payments, according to a report.
‘Trump Trade’ Doubts Drag on Dollar, Boosting US Treasuries
Treasury yields fell sharply and the dollar weakened as investors pared bets on Republican Donald Trump prevailing in Tuesday’s US election.
‘Dead Heat’ Election Has S&P 500 in Wavering Mode: Markets Wrap
Stocks struggled for direction, bonds rose and the dollar fell, with polls continuing to depict a tight race in the US presidential election ahead of the Federal Reserve decision.
Ryanair Cuts Passenger Growth Target Amid Boeing Jet Delays
Ryanair Holdings Plc cut its passenger growth target for next year because of delivery delays from aircraft supplier Boeing Co.
Intel, Samsung Results Rallies Seen Short-Lived on AI Challenges
Intel Corp. and Samsung Electronics Co. have shed a total of $227 billion in market value this year on their lack of leadership in artificial intelligence.
Amazon Reassures Investors With Cloud Growth, Cost-Cutting
Amazon.com Inc. reported strong results that showed a company humming on all cylinders, a testament to its efforts to cut and reallocate costs and put the cloud computing and e-commerce giant on sounder footing.
Bond Traders Scour US Jobs Data for Clues on Fed’s Rate Plan
Investors who’ve been hedging against a deeper selloff in US Treasuries are preparing for volatility as Friday’s hurricane- and strike-tinged US employment report offers final clues ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve policy decision.
Brain Tech Is Here and Not as Creepy as You Think
A middle-aged man who works in emergency services in the US had been battling depression and suicidal thoughts for 17 years, unable to sleep most nights and leaving his wife and teen daughter walking on eggshells because of his irritability, before he opted for a shot in the dark.
Squeezed Homebuilders Are Bad News for the Housing Market
Builders are an important part of any plausible fix for the housing shortage in the United States — not only constructing more homes but also finding ways to improve affordability.
Apple Sparks Concerns With Tepid Forecast, China Weakness
Apple Inc., heading into its most critical sales period of the year, sparked fresh concerns about revenue growth and lingering weakness in an intensely competitive China market.
Apple’s AI and Vision Pro Products Don’t Meet Its Standards
Today, Apple is having to become a different type of company. Its two most important products are being developed very much in the full view of the public, and I would say before they have met the previous Apple standard. “It just works” is now “we’re working on it.”
DoubleLine Sees Compelling Case to Buy Asset-Backed Securities Tied to Data Centers
It’s a good time to buy asset-backed securities tied to data centers, according to a October research note from DoubleLine Capital LP, as demand for digital infrastructure is booming and supply is constrained by energy requirements.
Meta Warns of Worsening AI Losses After Sales Narrowly Beat
Meta Platforms Inc. CEO Mark Zuckerberg will ramp up heavy investments in AI and other futuristic technologies, continuing a years-long tug-of-war between the company’s long-term bets and the core advertising business that provides the vast majority of Meta’s revenue.
Open Banking Will Be Great — With Guardrails
For the land of free markets and open competition, the US has surprisingly little choice when it comes to payments. Americans use cards for most of their purchases, and most of those transactions are handled by just two companies, Visa or Mastercard, which levy billions of dollars of fees on the merchants that rely on them.
Key US Inflation Gauge and Spending Pick Up in Solid Economy
The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of underlying US inflation posted its biggest monthly gain since April, bolstering the case for a slower pace of interest-rate cuts following last month’s outsize reduction.
A Hybrid That America’s Truck Lovers Can Love — for Now
If Elon Musk sold plug-in hybrid vehicles, he surely wouldn’t call them plug-in hybrid vehicles, or PHEVs, or anything else that sounds coined by an engineer. Far too clunky. Surely “Cyborgtruck” would offer a more futuristic spin on these marriages of gasoline and batteries?
JPMorgan Sees Fear Receding in a $1.8 Trillion Loans Market
In a corner of the credit market that regulators last year characterized as a potential hot-bed of greenwashing, there are signs that bankers have been cracking down on corporate pitches.
Gold Rises to Record High as Looming US Election Fans Demand
Gold rose to a record on Wednesday on haven demand before the US election, and held a narrow gain after jobs and GDP data that showed the ongoing resilience of the US economy.
Alphabet’s Pricey AI Bet Pays Off With Cloud, Search Growth
Google parent Alphabet Inc. is showing an expensive foray into artificial intelligence is starting to pay off, delivering better-than-expected sales for its cloud-computing business and driving more usage of its flagship search engine.
Private Credit’s Banking Romance May Turn Sour
To understand the wave of bank partnerships with private-credit fund managers during the past year or so, think back to the boom in mortgage lending through securitization in the early 2000s. The same forces are at work: a huge demand for finance, limited and costly bank capital and investment bankers’ ingenuity and desire to generate business.
Alphabet Needs More Than Strong Results to Tame Wall of Worries
Alphabet Inc. shares have gone nowhere for months, trailing Magnificent Seven peers as investors struggle to price risks confronting the company. It’s a stretch to believe Tuesday’s results will blow away those concerns.
Wall Street CEOs Tout US Resilience Against Concerns Over Europe
The titans of finance who congregated in Riyadh this week for Saudi Arabia’s annual Davos-style confab were mostly upbeat on the prospects for the US economy, but concerned about more sluggish growth in Europe.
Banks’ New Trick Could Mean Trouble for Everyone
If you’re unfamiliar with synthetic risk transfers, there’s a chance you’ll hear all about them when the next financial crisis hits. They’re the latest way for big banks to game rules designed to safeguard the system, and they’re growing fast. So far, regulators seem all but oblivious.
Weird Things Are Happening in the Bond Market
The US presidential election Nov. 5 is shaping up to be the mother of event risks so you’d think the safest of all havens would be holding up. But it’s not — and that’s only one of the notable anomalies springing up in financial markets. Yields on 10-year US Treasuries have risen nearly 70 basis points since the Federal Reserve's punchy half-point initial rate cut on Sept. 17.
Apple Ships $6 Billion of iPhones From India in Big China Shift
Apple Inc.’s iPhone exports from India jumped by a third in the six months through September, underscoring its push to expand manufacturing in the country and reduce dependence on China.
Yardeni Sees Bond Vigilantes Mustering as US, UK Prep Debt Sales
Wall Street veteran Ed Yardeni says the approaching US election could augur the return of the market’s bond vigilantes as the Treasury Department readies new debt issuance plans.
Bitcoin Traders Refocus on $70,000 With Cash Flowing Into ETFs
Bitcoin traders are targeting the $70,000 price level last reached in June once again after cryptocurrencies briefly dipped across the board late Friday and US exchange-traded funds continued to see steady inflows.
Apple Rolls Out AI Platform Alongside New iMac With M4 Chip
Apple Inc., heralding a “new era” for its devices, started rolling out its first set of Apple Intelligence features and introduced a new 24-inch iMac desktop with a faster, AI-focused M4 processor.
The Porterhouse at Weis Points to Inflation’s Demise
Although Americans say they don’t like paying the current level of prices for goods and services that resulted from the worst bout of inflation in 40 years, they can take comfort from the fact that those prices, while admittedly not coming down in most cases, are actually becoming more affordable.
A Boeing Space Exit Would Be a Win-Win-Win
A true win-win-win situation doesn’t come along often. One could be brewing with a Boeing Co. decision to look at a potential sale — or perhaps more realistically a spinoff — of its space business.
AI Power Demand Might Actually Turn Out to Be Good for Climate
Big energy companies are making the case that skyrocketing electricity demand from data centers — and the need to build more power sources to meet it — will end up being good for the climate.
Haven’t Worked at the Same Place for 10 Years? Join the Club
Been with the same employer for 10 years or more? That doesn’t exactly make you a rarity in the US, where 30.2% of employed wage and salary workers were in that situation as of January 2024, according to data released last month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. And while this percentage is down from a decade ago, it’s close to where things stood for the much of the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s.
Starmer Looks to Win Over Skeptics With UK Plan to Lead on AI
At his party’s inaugural investment summit last week, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer positioned himself as a champion for artificial intelligence. Appearing alongside former Google Chief Executive Officer Eric Schmidt, Starmer called AI an “opportunity,” rather than something to be scared of, and said his country “needs to run towards” it.
The Inflation Struggle Is Over. Just Don’t Tell Anyone
Even with inflation well and truly on the way down after the most aggressive interest-rate tightening in a generation, central banks are averse to declarations of victory. That the pace of price increases has been reined in without a major economic downturn is an accomplishment that warrants some trumpeting.
Stock Investors Grapple With String of Coin-Toss Risk Events
Equity investors face a bewildering sequence of tough-to-predict outcomes and confusing market signals. Patience and a steady hand look like valuable attributes in navigating through the noise.
How a $33 Billion Fund Manager Scored a Perfect Record Betting on Value
To those who argue that value investing has gotten too hard in today’s momentum-chasing, passive-driven world, Scott McBride’s results are a bit of a conundrum.
Economists Boost US Growth, Spending Forecasts Into Early 2025
Economists nudged up quarterly US economic growth projections through early next year on more sanguine views of consumer demand and maintained views that limited inflation will keep the Federal Reserve on a path toward lower borrowing costs.
AI’s Effect on the US Economy Will Be Wildly Uneven
One of the only things growing faster than progress in AI applications is speculation about AI’s effect on the economy. I don’t have all the answers, not by a long shot, but I do think we should expect great unevenness in adaptation, and that itself will alter our world.
Hundreds of ESG Funds Are Being Wound Down, Morningstar Says
Asset managers in Europe and the US have spent 2024 winding down hundreds of ESG funds, as the investment strategy continues to bump up against regulatory headwinds.
US Hospitals Are Hanging by a Thread
As Steward Health Care Systems LLC’s network of hospitals was struggling, it stopped paying some of its vendors. One of those vendors was a supplier of bereavement boxes, the tiny cases used to transport the remains of newborns who don’t survive.
The World Bank Somehow Lost Track of at Least $24 Billion
Imagine if humanity decides it doesn’t have enough amusement parks. All the world’s nations announce they will be financing new ones across the planet. Bankers stand next to models of future parks and hand comically large loan checks to the developers. It’s not nearly enough to end the global amusement-park crisis, but they still win accolades and shareholder approval for doing their part.
US Treasuries Rebound as Market Takes Break From Days of Losses
The sharp selloff in Treasuries abated on Thursday, with US bonds rallying alongside European peers, after three straight days of declines.
Tesla Delivers Blowout Quarter and Upbeat Outlook for 2025
Tesla Inc.’s shares surged after the carmaker reported surprisingly strong earnings and forecast as much as 30% growth in vehicle sales next year.
Disney’s Happily Ever After Iger Is Finally On Track
Last year, James Gorman told the In Good Company podcast that now that he had stepped down as CEO of Morgan Stanley, he wanted a board role that was more than an easy paycheck. "I want something that is complicated. I like solving problems,” he said.
Say Goodbye to Cheaper Rent and Airfares
It’s inevitable that the market dynamics that have delivered cheaper airfares, used cars and rents in the past year will eventually turn around. One high-profile reminder came from United Airlines’ earnings last week.
US Previously Owned Home Sales Fall to an Almost 14-Year Low
US sales of previously owned homes declined to an almost 14-year low in September as prospective buyers waited for a further decline in mortgage rates and more attractive asking prices.
Treasuries Slide for Third Straight Day as Fed-Cut Bets Wane
Treasury yields climbed for the third straight day amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates at a gradual pace and as traders fretted about the potential inflationary implications of the US presidential election.
Vanguard Sticks to Higher-Quality Debt ‘Playbook’ as US Economy Expected to Slow
Vanguard Group Inc. sees more opportunities in the lowest rung of investment-grade bonds, even as spreads for triple-B notes reached their tightest since 1998 last week.
Bonds Slump Globally as Traders Rethink Fed’s Rate Cut Path
Bonds extended losses as investors mulled the prospect of slower US interest-rate cuts, a trend that risks upending debt positions everywhere.
AI's Power Drain Demands a Novel Solution: Us
Big Tech is going nuclear in its pursuit of artificial intelligence. Power-hungry datacenters are just one part of a broader freak-out over how the US grid will handle even bigger loads including electric vehicles and re-shored factories, plus withstand extreme weather, all while decarbonizing at a reasonable cost.
China Stimulus Is More Than Just One ‘Damn Number’
Ironically, China’s President Xi Jinping has been cornered into the same uncomfortable spot reserved for high-profile chief executives like JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Jamie Dimon: Impatient stock investors are brushing aside the intricacies of running complex businesses and demanding simplistic numbers to justify their euphoria.
Decade of Big S&P 500 Gains Is Over, Goldman Strategists Say
US stocks are unlikely to sustain their above-average performance of the past decade as investors turn to other assets including bonds for better returns, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists said.
Fears of False Start for Fed Leave Emerging Markets in Limbo
Price action in some of the world’s most risk-sensitive assets is signaling concern that the Federal Reserve’s decision to begin lowering interest rates may have been premature — or unsustainable.
Hazard-Obsessed Stock Investors Risk Missing a Year-End Rally
Investors laser-focused on the risks looming in the next few weeks may be left unprepared if their worst fears don’t come to pass.
Treasury 10-Year Yields Will Test 5% in Six Months, T. Rowe Says
Benchmark Treasury yields may soon hit a key level on the back of rising inflation expectations and concerns over US fiscal spending, according to T. Rowe Price.
The Energy Transition Is Powered By — Wait for It — Coal
In what should be one of the least surprising developments, global electricity demand is soaring everywhere as the world moves to electrify everything. Out go gasoline cars, in come electric vehicles; out go gas boilers, in come heat pumps; and so on and so forth. That’s the energy transition.
Boeing's Union Finally Has a Labor Deal That Makes Sense
A dark cloud will be hanging over Boeing Co. when it releases its third-quarter earnings report Wednesday morning and Chief Executive Officer Kelly Ortberg, who has only been in the job since August, presides over his first quarterly conference call with analysts for the storied planemaker.
Netflix Beats Wall Street’s Forecasts in Every Major Metric
Netflix Inc. added more than 5 million customers in the third quarter and eclipsed Wall Street’s expectations on every major financial metric despite a new programming slate constrained by last year’s strikes in Hollywood.
IPhone 16 Sales Soar 20% in China Debut as Demand Returns
Sales of Apple Inc.’s newest iPhones in China are up 20% in their first three weeks compared with 2023’s model, a positive sign for a device that struggled this year to gain traction in the world’s largest smartphone market.
How Market Forces Came for the Dinosaurs
Around 110 million years ago, a dinosaur went hunting. Stalking through ferns along a riverbank, he twitched his nose to the wind and caught scent of a plant-eater ahead. His head darted upward. His eyes locked on the target. The dinosaur drew his sickle claws upward, ready to make a lethal strike. But something wasn’t right.
A Bull Run in Emerging Markets Is Overdue and Easily Missed
In China’s resurgent stock market, there’s a lesson for investors about the perils of market timing.
In Space, No One Can Hear Musk's Rivals Scream
Navigating space is hard. It’s expensive, complex, time-consuming and dangerous. And yet you have to hand it to Elon Musk: His SpaceX firm makes it look easy.
Shakeup in Bond Futures Stands to Reignite Burned Treasury Trade
The unwinding of positions in Treasury futures stands to rekindle a popular bond-market wager that’s been burned as traders pare back expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts.
US Mortgage Rates Climb to 6.52%, Highest Since Early August
US mortgage rates rose sharply for a second straight week, reaching the highest level since early August while prompting steep declines in both home-purchase and refinance activity.
TSMC Hikes Revenue Outlook in Show of Confidence in AI Boom
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. raised its target for 2024 revenue growth after quarterly results beat estimates, allaying concerns about global chip demand and the sustainability of an AI hardware boom.
Boeing Is Flexing the Financial Muscle It Has Left
Boeing Co. is flexing its financial muscle even in light of a crippling labor strike and a disgraceful period of execution that resulted in two deadly plane crashes, the near-disaster of a midair door-panel blowout and whistleblowers who have detailed a culture of putting profit over quality.
BlackRock’s Third Pivot Is Its Most Adventurous Yet
When BlackRock Inc. completed its initial public offering in 1999, it fell a bit flat. There was no first day pop; Founder and Chief Executive Officer Larry Fink didn’t even get to ring the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange. Valued at just under $900 million, the firm was one of 30 large investment-managers in the US, managing $165 billion of assets.
Toyota Joins With Hyundai's Boston Dynamics on AI-Powered Robots
Toyota Motor Corp.’s research unit and Hyundai Motor Co.’s Boston Dynamics are joining forces to speed up development of humanoid robots with artificial intelligence.
Fitch Sees More Stress for Colleges With Budgets Under Pressure
Fitch Ratings predicts an even gloomier financial outlook for US colleges and universities, with smaller private schools being hit the hardest.
Some Hedge Funds Are Missing a Trick — Volume Alpha
Machine learning is ubiquitous in financial markets, and we tend to associate it with the sexy parts of hedge fund investing: what to buy, what to sell and how to pick a bottom or a top.
US Weighs Capping Exports of AI Chips From Nvidia and AMD to Some Countries
Biden administration officials have discussed capping sales of advanced AI chips from Nvidia Corp. and other American companies on a country-specific basis, people familiar with the matter said.
Bitcoin Rally Pauses as Traders Assess US Outlook, ETF Inflows
A rally in Bitcoin paused as traders evaluated whether an improving regulatory outlook in the US and rising exchange-traded fund inflows will be sufficient to spur further gains.
Jerome Powell Is Not the Greatest Fed Chair Ever
Even if he does oversee a soft landing for the US economy, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will not deserve a place in the annals of history as the greatest central banker of all time.
Boeing’s Endless Doom Loop Gives No Respite to CEO Ortberg
As Boeing Co. lurches from one crisis to the next, there’s been one constant for the embattled planemaker: Its predicament appears to be only getting worse.
Five Themes for Traders to Watch as Earnings Season Kicks Off
Earnings season is here, and the US stock market’s furious $9 trillion 2024 rally is facing perhaps its biggest test of the year.
Money Should Work Better. Crypto Can Actually Help
If money makes the world go around, it hasn’t been doing a very good job lately. Beyond developed nations — in eastern Europe, Latin America and Africa — people and businesses are increasingly finding themselves cut off from global payments. An unintended consequence of necessary measures to enforce sanctions and thwart criminals, the trend is doing significant damage to trade and economic growth.
Volatile Bond Market Puts Traders on Defense Amid Fed-Cut Doubts
Bond investors are going on defense as the outlook for the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cutting path turns more uncertain.
Hedged-Up Wall Street Traders Still Haunted by August Meltdown
Take a snapshot of markets right now, and it’s a picture of health. Stocks are at records, corporate bonds show no signs of worry and commodities remain buoyant on global economic optimism.
Nvidia Rides Fierce Blackwell Demand Toward Stock Record Again
Nvidia Corp.’s shares are roaring back after the company successfully calmed investor concerns about product delays and its long-term growth prospects.
Boeing Needs Some Help to Stem Its Cash Burn and Losses
It’s almost always bad news when a statement from a prominent company hits late on Friday. For those who missed Boeing Co.’s release at 4:30 p.m. New York Time ahead of a three-day weekend for the bond market, Boeing laid out the ugly truth of blowout operating losses at its commercial aircraft and defense businesses during the third quarter, which combined for about $6.4 billion.
Jamie Dimon Is Right. Forget the ‘Damn Number.’
The top corporate conference calls are attended by dozens of Wall Street analysts whose job it is to maintain detailed earnings and valuation models filled with minutiae. Quarter after quarter, they populate their spreadsheets with revenue and cost assumptions to predict exactly what earnings per share will be months and years into the future.
Chinese Stocks Climb as Traders See Hope in Beijing’s Promises
Chinese stocks overcame a bout of early volatility to post their biggest gain in a week on Monday, suggesting that investors are hopeful the government will deliver on its promise of more fiscal support.
Bond Traders’ Big Week Ends With Fed Rate Cuts Even Less Certain
The bond market is growing less convinced by the day that the Federal Reserve will embark on two further interest-rate cuts this year.
When Will Musk’s Robotaxis Actually Arrive?
The key moment during the Tesla Inc. robotaxi event Thursday night came when a member of the audience interrupted Chief Executive Elon Musk’s spiel about the benefits of autonomous vehicles. He had just opined about Airbnb-like fleets of money-earning robotaxis that you could care for like a shepherd tends their flock — stirring stuff, this — presaging “a glorious future” when someone shouted: “When will they be available?”
BlackRock Enters New League With $450 Billion in Alternative Assets
BlackRock Inc. reaching $450 billion in alternative assets is putting a finer point on a case it has been making all year: it’s not just an ETF powerhouse.
JPMorgan’s Silver Lining Still Comes With a Cloud
JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s net interest income was the hot topic of its third-quarter results, much to the irritation of Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon, who grew impatient with quibbling over details of the bank’s outlook on its earnings call on Friday.
US Credit Draws In Foreign Investors Eying Lower Costs to Hedge
Foreign investors have been buying more US corporate bonds, a trend that will likely continue as Federal Reserve monetary easing lowers the cost of hedging and investors hunt for yield.
Hong Kong ETF Investors Make Record Bet on Stock Market Decline
Investors in Hong Kong have bet a record amount on exchange-traded funds that profit when stocks decline, showing how quickly sentiment is shifting following a breakneck rally.
Dollar Extends Weekly Gaining Trend as Traders Trim Fed Cut Bets
Traders are pushing the dollar toward its second-straight weekly gain in anticipation of a slower pace of interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
The IPO Slump Is Fine Unless You’re Jamie Dimon
Two senior Wall Street executives complained this week that over-regulation is discouraging initial public offerings. JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon partly blamed the zeal of securities regulators for the drop in IPOs that began in March 2022, a sentiment echoed by Citadel Securities CEO Peng Zhao.
Musk Shows Tesla Cybercab, Sees Sub-$30,000 Cost and 2026 Production
Elon Musk unveiled Tesla Inc.’s highly anticipated self-driving taxi at a flashy event that was light on specifics, leaving investors questioning how the carmaker expects to achieve its ambitious goals.
For Bond Traders, It’s Wait Till Next Year (Again)
A return to lower yields has been every bond fund manager's dream since the nightmare of 2022. But now, with expectations dashed that they’d get their wish this year, it appears they’ll have to hang their hopes on 2025.
China Has Taken Out an Insurance Policy, Not a Bazooka
With many having characterized China as “uninvestible” just a few months ago, investors’ enthusiastic response in recent weeks to a perceived shift in the authorities’ policy reaction function is also likely to be an overreaction. It grossly oversimplifies the competing priorities of a country with internal imbalances, inefficient resource allocation channels, and exposure to further geopolitical tensions.
US CPI Rises More Than Forecast, Stalling Inflation Progress
Underlying US inflation rose more than forecast in September, representing a pause in the recent progress toward moderating price pressures.
Big Banks Prep for Billions More in Bond Issuance After Earnings
Wall Street banks are expected to launch a barrage of bond sales as soon as next week, capitalizing on ultra-low credit spreads and strong demand from investors after they report quarterly results.
Investors Buying CLOs Are Increasingly Using ETFs, Bank of America Says
Investors who buy bundles of loans packaged into bonds are increasingly using exchange-traded funds to do so, according to a report from Bank of America.
Elon Musk Readies the Robotaxi He Is Betting Tesla’s Future On
Elon Musk went all-in to get robotaxis onto roads, sacrificing a widely anticipated cheaper car, gutting teams focused on other projects and downplaying Tesla Inc.’s sales slowdown.
US Weighs Google Breakup in Historic Big Tech Antitrust Case
The US Justice Department is considering asking a federal judge to force Google to sell off parts of its business in what would be a historic breakup of one of the world’s biggest tech companies.
Why Robinhood Is Seeking Merry Traders Overseas
Britain’s stock-investing culture has been withering for years, with the only real growth coming from consultants, policymakers and commentators generating ideas on how to revive it. So why is Robinhood Markets Inc. so keen to expand in the UK? The draw may be more the country’s enthusiasm for online betting than allocating savings to equities.
Unions Need to Join the 21st Century Economy
It is hard to be “the most pro-union president in American history,” as Joe Biden likes to claim, while also leading an effort to “reimagine and rebuild a new economy,” as he has also promised. That’s because these goals are fundamentally incompatible: America’s unions no longer fit the modern economy.
Google Should Worry About Regulators’ Case Against Its AI Push
If investors in Alphabet Inc. weren’t all that worried at first about the possible consequences of Google losing its search antitrust case, they perhaps should be now.
Is China Breaking Out or Breaking Bad?
China’s recent stimulus announcements sparked a massive rally in its stocks, and a growing chorus of analysts see more gains ahead. Is this a reawakening of the country’s long slumbering stock market or just another false start? Bloomberg Opinion’s Nir Kaissar and Shuli Ren, based in the US and Hong Kong respectively, met online to discuss the risks and opportunities.
How to Think About the Surprising US Jobs Data
Judging from the public commentary, last Friday’s US jobs report confused economists in terms of their understanding of economic developments in the world’s largest economy and the policy approach of the Federal Reserve.
US Corporate Bond Spreads Rally to Three-Year Low, Bucking Risks
US investment-grade corporate bond spreads have narrowed to the lowest level in more than three years, a clear sign of just how bullish credit investors are even as macro and geopolitical risks mount.
America’s Jobs Market Has Entered the Twilight Zone
The strong gain of 254,000 jobs in September was a welcome surprise after months of cooling in the labor market and reinforced other signs of strength in the US economy. However, one month does not make a trend, and even with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, a sustained turnaround in hiring will take time.
Raise the $1,000 Limit on Emergency 401(k) Withdrawals
Thanks to new legislation, Americans with retirement plans now have easier access to cash in the event of a financial emergency. A provision in the Secure Act 2.0 that took effect this year allows individuals with 401(k)s and other retirement plans to withdraw up to $1,000 without triggering a 10% early distribution penalty.
Oil Bets Most Bullish in Two Years as Mideast Tension Flares
Oil futures posted their largest gain in more than a year last week. And the frenzy was even bigger in the options market.
Corporate Bonds Gain an Edge Over Stocks as Fed Cuts
The outlook for corporate debt is improving now that the Federal Reserve has begun cutting interest rates, according to the latest Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey.
Bond Traders Buckle Up for ‘No Landing’ After Jobs Surprise
The “no landing” scenario – a situation where the US economy keeps growing, inflation reignites and the Federal Reserve has little room to cut interest rates – had largely disappeared as a bond-market talking point in recent months.
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Private Equity-Backed Texas Housing Development Taps Muni Market
In suburban Texas, a neighborhood complete with an amphitheater, dance hall and goat farm is scheduled to be erected 40 miles from Houston’s downtown — providing municipal-bond investors a window to bet on one of the fastest-growing areas of the US.
Traders Rip Up Bets on Big Fed Cuts as Jobs Data Hits Bonds
Traders slashed their bets on the pace of future Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts after September US employment data blew past estimates and signaled a robust hiring trend.
OpenAI Gets $4 Billion in Credit on Top of $6.6 Billion Fundraise
OpenAI has tapped global banks for a $4 billion revolving line of credit on top of its recent $6.6 billion fundraising, building a massive war chest to stay ahead in the costly race to develop more sophisticated artificial intelligence.
El-Erian Warns Fed After Jobs Data: ‘Inflation Is Not Dead’
Mohamed El-Erian says the Federal Reserve needs to renew its focus on its fight against rising prices after September’s surprisingly hot jobs report served as a reminder that “inflation is not dead.”
Dollar Set for Best Week in Two Years as Big Fed Cut Bets Erased
The dollar is about to notch its best week in two years. Geopolitical unrest, the odds of lower borrowing costs overseas and a resilient US economy are all spurring the world’s reserve currency higher.
Strong Jobs Report Takes Pressure Off Fed for Next Meeting
Surprisingly strong hiring in September has taken pressure off the Federal Reserve by reducing worries over the US labor market, giving policymakers room to continue cutting interest rates at a more gradual pace in coming months.
Meta Unveils AI Video Generator, Taking On OpenAI and Google
Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc. debuted a new artificial intelligence tool that can generate or edit videos based on a simple text prompt, elevating competition with rivals like OpenAI and Google in the race to develop the world’s most advanced AI technology.
Druckenmiller Is Wary of Fed’s Next Move After Hot Jobs Data
Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller is concerned that the Federal Reserve has boxed itself into a corner when it comes to future interest-rate cuts.
India Won’t Grow Without Taking on the World
Ever since Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced his “Make in India” policies shortly after being elected prime minister in 2014, New Delhi has chased the dream of a prosperous manufacturing sector. There have been some successes — when it comes to making mobile phones, for example.
Retailers Have No Room for Error This Holiday
With interest rates lower, inflation collapsing and wages rising faster than prices, there’s potential for a very happy holiday for US retailers.
One Underappreciated Way to Reduce Inequality: Work More
The various bestselling books on income inequality cite a variety of driving factors. Robert Kuttner blames global capitalism. Paul Krugman pins it on bad domestic economic policies. Thomas Piketty writes of capitalists as if they are rentiers, extracting royalties from the system.
The Fed Needs to Tread Carefully in Twitchy Money Markets
It might not be time to really get nervous about US money markets, but it’s definitely time to pay more attention. Signs of strain emerged as September turned into October this week — it wasn’t completely wild, but the tensions were the worst since early 2020.
Nvidia Insider Share Sales Top $1.8 Billion and More Are Coming
Nvidia Corp. insiders have cashed in on shares worth more than $1.8 billion so far this year — and more selling is on the horizon.
TSMC Gets Single-Stock ETF as Direxion Funds Allow Leverage Bets
Direxion Funds has launched two exchange-traded products that focus on a single emerging-market stock — Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. — allowing investors to make outsized bullish bets on it or take positions against the direction of the market.
Boeing’s Frail Finances Give Strikers All the Power
While a strike by East Coast port workers is strangling the flow of goods from Maine to Texas and grabbing headlines, news of machinists at Boeing Co. about to enter their fourth week of picketing near Seattle has receded a bit into the background.
How My Hard Economic Landing Forecast Went Wrong
I’ve been too pessimistic about the risks of a so-called hard landing for the US economy over the past few years. Although most of my conclusions that led to that view were correct, such an outcome remains very much in doubt.
Tesla Really Needs Musk’s Robotaxis to Live Up to the Hype
Guys, you were so close. If it wasn’t for that last little bounce of Wall Street optimism on the last day of September, Tesla Inc.’s latest sales figure would have beaten estimates — just.
Nvidia Partners With Accenture to Boost Corporate AI Adoption
Nvidia Corp. has expanded a partnership with technology consultant Accenture as part of an effort to drive adoption of artificial intelligence within businesses and boost orders for the chipmaker’s products.
Fidelity Raises First Fund Dedicated to Venture Capital
Fidelity Investments has raised $250 million for its first fund dedicated to venture capital investments, pushing the firm further into private assets.
The Stock Market Is Becoming a Dumping Ground
A lot of people are worried about the shrinking number of public companies in the US, but quality is an even bigger problem than quantity.
Dalio, Abu Dhabi Royal’s G42 Said to Shelve Investment Venture
Ray Dalio’s family office and Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan’s artificial intelligence firm G42 have abandoned plans to set up an asset management venture together in Abu Dhabi, according to people familiar with the matter.
The US Economy’s Landing Isn’t as Soft as We Think
For all the talk of a soft landing in the US, there’s one corner of the economy where the hazard lights are flashing: the $1.6 trillion motor-vehicle lending market, which accounts for around a quarter of non-mortgage consumer credit. For the past three years, bad debts have been rising.
Fink Sees Boom in Infrastructure Fueling Global Economic Growth
BlackRock Inc. Chief Executive Officer Larry Fink said infrastructure is a major component to help stimulate growth in every economy and there’s enough capital in the private sector to fund investment.
Suddenly Asia Is Place to Be as Stocks, Currencies Outperform
Asian assets swung violently over the past three months, rocked by a succession of epochal events that culminated in a giant stimulus boost for China and propelled the region’s equities to world beaters.
Biden Should Intervene in the East Coast Port Strike
The much-anticipated labor strike at ports along the East and Gulf coasts has begun, and the impact is a bit anticlimactic — for now.
In Markets, Crystal Balls Lose to the Many Quiet Voices
Victor Haghani, James White and Jerry Bell of Elm Partners Management conducted a fascinating experiment to investigate the value of getting tomorrow’s headlines today, and the trading acumen of finance students. The results may suggest to some that finance courses need an upgrade...
Market-Boosting Moves in US, China Yet to Convince Economists
A stronger-than-expected pivot to stimulus in the world’s two biggest economies has brightened the market outlook. For economists, the jury is still out.
JPMorgan Slips as Morgan Stanley Sees Fewer Benefits From Rate Cuts
JPMorgan Chase & Co. has been the best performing big bank stock since the Federal Reserve started hiking interest rates more than two years ago. But as the US central bank begins to unwind those moves, Morgan Stanley says it’s time for investors to wait before they buy more shares.
Stocks Are In and Bonds Are Out: Top Trades for the Rest of the Year
US stocks will outperform the nation’s government and corporate bonds for the rest of this year as the Federal Reserve keeps cutting interest rates, the latest Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey shows.
Your Next Financial Adviser Will Be on an App
Just as the industrial revolution changed the way goods are manufactured and consumed, so the technological revolution will do for services. Once something can be made at scale, the market for it can expand and be segmented. The same goes for financial planning.
Gold’s Record Run Can’t Continue Forever, Right?
Gold is what you buy when everything isn’t goldilocks. Inflation, deflation, war, pestilence — gold is a certain anxious state of mind made tangible in a seductive but mostly useless metal. In a weird spin, gold has been enjoying a goldilocks period itself, hitting a new record last week. More that that, it seems almost immune to things that would usually drag it down.
Murdoch’s Bid Still on the Wrong Side of Rightmove
Rupert Murdoch has so far made it easy for Rightmove Plc to resist his takeover bid.
Costco Profit Beats Estimates Amid Moderating Inflation
Costco Wholesale Corp. posted higher-than-expected profit as moderating prices fueled consumer spending and store traffic climbed.
Quarter-Trillion Dollars of Breakups Drive Dealmaking Recovery
Chief executive officers are no longer trying to be all things to all people.
Blame NFL’s Revenue-Sharing Model for David Tepper
If on-field success is a measuring stick, Appaloosa Management co-founder David Tepper’s 2018 purchase of the Carolina Panthers has been a disaster.
The Fed Should Stop Tying Its Hands on Interest Rates
So far, so good. The Federal Reserve’s efforts to engineer a soft landing for the economy are going well.
The Cheating Game Inside the OPEC+ Oil Cartel
Since the beginning of the year, the OPEC+ countries that are subject to output caps have pumped together more than 600,000 barrels a day above their self-imposed limits.
Who’s Really Keeping Ozempic and Wegovy Prices So High?
On Tuesday, congressional leaders spent two hours taking to task Novo Nordisk Chief Executive Officer Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen over the high price of the company’s diabetes and obesity drugs, Ozempic and Wegovy. Now the question is whether those prices will change.
Wall Street’s ETF Assets Hit $10 Trillion Milestone
Assets held by exchange-traded funds in the US hit $10 trillion for the first time as the investor-friendly products continue their relentless takeover of Wall Street.
‘Crystal Ball’ Breaks as Traders Fail to Get Rich in New Study
If investors had known in advance the size of the Federal Reserve’s latest interest-rate cut, would they have made big money on stocks and bonds trading on this market-moving intel?
The $6.3 Trillion Money-Market Industry Just Got Its First ETF
A new exchange-traded fund attempting to carve out a slice of the $6.3 trillion sitting in traditional money-market funds is launching Wednesday.
Bonus-Starved Bankers Are Jumping Ship for Private Credit Riches
At a finance conference in London this summer, four senior investment bankers set about persuading the room that the $1.7-trillion private credit market isn’t a threat to Wall Street. Barely three months later, two of them have jumped ship to seek their fortunes in the upstart asset class.
Blaming Greedflation for High Food Prices Is Misguided
Vice President Kamala Harris’ recent proposal to ban price gouging in the grocery industry has raised tricky questions about the recent history of grocery prices, inflation and market power. Markups in grocery stores appear to be persistently higher than before the pandemic. But don’t rush to the conclusion that market power is the only explanation here.
OpenAI Is Just Like the Rest of Silicon Valley After All
That is much clearer and far more accurate. On Wednesday, Reuters first reported that the company is set to announce a restructuring under which its nonprofit board will lose control over the company’s core business.
Private Equity Calls in Experts to Fix Firms They Can’t Sell
Buyout heavyweights are increasingly resorting to the old-fashioned way of making money — actually running the companies they’ve bought.
Wall Street Drives Office Revival on Manhattan’s Ritziest Street
Financial services companies are office hunting on one of New York City’s fanciest addresses, Park Avenue, and the biggest beneficiary may be a once-beleaguered real estate investment trust that happens to find itself in the right place at the right time.
Sam Altman Is Spreading Himself Too Thin
Sam Altman has his hands in countless projects while also building “mankind’s last invention”: artificial general intelligence, or AI systems that surpass our own cognitive abilities. These galactic aspirations were reinforced on Monday when Altman published a dramatic blog post reminding us that superintelligence will bring prosperity for everyone. It’s just a “few thousand days” away, he added.
We Asked a Nobel Prize-Winning Economist How to Fix Fintech
Financial services, like many institutions, are losing Americans’ trust. That’s a problem. Economies depend on a healthy financial system, as became painfully evident during the 2008 financial crisis, and that system operates largely on trust — confidence that people can access the money in their bank accounts, that their investment accounts are secure, and that their trades will be filled at quoted market prices, to name just a few everyday financial interactions.
Wall Street Has Proven That Trust Can Be Rebuilt
America’s financial industry has long had trust issues. Never mind the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-08; mistrust of the markets dates back to at least 1929, if not the Dutch East India collapse of 1769. But this history has an upside: Financial institutions have a lot of experience creating systems to build, maintain and restore trust — and have learned lessons that can be applied across the economy.
OpenAI Pitched White House on Unprecedented Data Center Buildout
OpenAI has pitched the Biden administration on the need for massive data centers that could each use as much power as entire cities, framing the unprecedented expansion as necessary to develop more advanced artificial intelligence models and compete with China.
AI Market Will Surge to Near $1 Trillion by 2027, Bain Says
The global market for AI-related products is ballooning and will hit as much as $990 billion in 2027, as the technology’s quick adoption disrupts companies and economies, Bain & Co. said.
Intel Doesn’t Need a Takeover. It Needs a Turnaround
They say if there’s ever a Silicon Valley Mount Rushmore, the first face to be chiseled into the stone would be that of Gordon Moore. The Intel Corp. co-founder’s famous prediction about the rate at which semiconductors would improve has provided the bedrock to American technology leadership.
Microsoft’s Three Mile Island Deal Is Great News
At risk of understatement, let’s call it a big deal. Microsoft Corp.’s agreement with Constellation Energy Corp. to reopen the Three Mile Island nuclear plant in Pennsylvania could prove highly consequential — for the green-energy transition and much else besides.
Retail Investors Won on Fees But Are Losing on Risk
Retail investors have won the battle of fees. Brokerage accounts are free. Trading commissions are history. Anyone can own the entire stock market through a single exchange-traded fund for basically nothing. It’s a huge win for investors and terrible for the investment industry.
Rate Cut Kickoff Sparks Rush to Emerging Market Bond ETFs
Investors poured money into exchange-traded funds that buy emerging-market bonds last week as optimism around the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle fueled risk appetite.
Yardeni Says Fed Cut Raises Odds of ‘Outright Melt-Up’ in Stocks
US stocks can soar to fresh highs thanks to the Federal Reserve’s aggressive half-point interest rate cut last week, but it also could cause inflation to resurface if central bankers don’t tread carefully, according to Wall Street strategist Ed Yardeni.
Fed Officials Leave Door Open to Another Large Interest-Rate Cut
A handful of Federal Reserve officials on Monday left open the door to additional large interest-rate cuts, noting that current rates still weigh heavily on the US economy.
Traders, Don’t Fall in Love With Your Machines
Gary Gensler, chief US securities regulator, enlisted Scarlett Johansson and Joaquin Phoenix’s movie “Her” last week to help explain his worries about the risks of artificial intelligence in finance. Money managers and banks are rushing to adopt a handful of generative AI tools and the failure of one of them could cause mayhem, just like the AI companion played by Johansson left Phoenix’s character and many others heartbroken.
Fischer Black Would See Bubbles as Traps for Traders
Cliff Asness, co-founder of AQR Capital Management, made the news recently with the provocative claim that financial markets are getting less efficient. I worked at AQR for 10 years, but long before that I spent nearly two decades as the only mentee the renowned economist Fischer Black ever had. Fischer had a very different view of market efficiency and would, I think, have reached a different conclusion from Cliff’s data.
Stocks’ Post-Fed Rally Risks Adding ‘Accelerant Fuel’ to Selloff
While the stock market rallied after the long-awaited Federal Reserve rate cut last week, there’s a sense of unease accompanying the gains.
Fed’s Bostic Says Large Cut Bolsters Labor Market, Pace Not Set
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said starting the central bank’s cutting cycle with a large move will help bring interest rates closer to neutral levels as the risks between inflation and employment become more balanced.
We Get Either 4% Mortgage Rates or a Stable Job Market
The Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut last week has led many to wonder what it means for mortgage rates. The housing website Redfin noted that some would-be homebuyers aren’t aware that we’ve already seen a steep decline, while others are waiting for mortgage rates to fall more.
America’s Fiscal Exceptionalism Is All Too Real
A popular rebuttal of the idea that the US ought to worry about its surging public debt is, “What about Japan?” America’s taxpayers are currently on the hook for 123% of gross domestic product, exceeding the previous record of 118% in the aftermath of the second world war, and the number is going up.
Good Luck to Qualcomm in Getting Intel Inside
There’s opportunism — and there’s Qualcomm Inc.’s approach to buy Intel Corp. The acquisitive semiconductor giant has an opening to attempt such a momentous deal thanks to the yawning gap between their market capitalizations. The snag is that many obstacles remain to a successful transaction.
Summers Sees Fed Rate Projections Upended, Higher Mortgage Rates
Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said inflation will probably prevent the Federal Reserve from lowering interest rates as much as expected in coming years.
Jay Powell Makes a Heckuva Car Salesman
Jay Powell: Federal Reserve Chair, soft-landing pilot … car dealer extraordinaire?
Risky Banks Are Regulators’ Fault
It’s understandable that bank regulators, facing zealous industry opposition, are retreating from their effort to require the biggest lenders to fund their assets with more equity. After all, there hasn’t been a major blowup in 18 months and the banks insist they have more than enough capital.
Where the US and China Can Find Common Ground on AI
Earlier this month, OpenAI released its most-advanced models yet, saying they had the ability to “reason” and solve complex math and coding problems. The industry-leading startup, valued at some $150 billion, also acknowledged that they raised the risk artificial intelligence could be misused to create biological weapons.
A US Soft Landing Will Rest on Increasingly Shaky Ground
Americans might be forgiven for basking in self-satisfaction when it comes to the economy. The country’s most prominent CEO, Jamie Dimon, has called the country’s boom “unbelievable,” and its most stimulating magazine, The Atlantic, has dubbed it a “superstar.”
Dow’s Lack of AI Stocks Puts Blue-Chip Index ‘Behind the Curve’
The rise of artificial intelligence has reordered the American stock market, pushing the likes of Nvidia Corp. and other chipmakers into the upper echelons. There’s one storied corner, though, where the changes wrought by AI haven’t shown up: the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Big Banks Are Split on How Fast Fed Will Cut Interest Rates
Wall Street’s biggest banks are divided over how fast and deep the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates over the next year, setting the stage for jittery financial markets until the outlook clears.
Americans Face Credit Hit as Student Debt Goes Delinquent Again
Millions of Americans are falling behind on student loan payments a year after the pandemic freeze ended – and soon that will start hurting their credit scores.
Microsoft’s AI Power Needs Prompt Revival of Three Mile Island Nuclear Plant
The owner of the shuttered Three Mile Island nuclear plant in Pennsylvania will invest $1.6 billion to revive it, agreeing to sell all the output to Microsoft Corp. as the tech titan seeks carbon-free electricity for data centers to power the artificial intelligence boom.
Apple Wins Big as $250 Billion of Index Trades Hit Wall Street
An action-packed week on Wall Street ends with a bang as index-tracking funds are set to reshuffle $250 billion of shares, just as a “triple witching” trading event hits.
ETF-Volatility Race Heats Up on 200% Leveraged MicroStrategy Bet
An ETF that just last month was dubbed the most volatile to ever hit Wall Street has already been upstaged, after the debut of a competing product that adds even more leverage.
Exciting Economics Is Often Misguided Economics
In the long-running popular series about what’s wrong with economics, there is a new entry: Our profession is too insular. “Economists generally agree that competition is good, and that markets with only a few dominant players are inefficient,” writes the economist David Deming in the Atlantic. “We may need to take a hard look in the mirror.”
Salesforce Is a Dark Horse in the AI Race
In the frothy business of selling artificial intelligence service, Salesforce Inc. has been punching above its own weight. “Salesforce?” I hear you wonder. The folks in the dull business of selling customer relationship management software?
The Fed’s Uncertain Destination Troubles the Bond Market
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday began its policy easing with a bang. Much of the focus was on its decision to cut interest rates by half a percentage point from a two-decade high. But the key question for the bond market is where rates will land once all is said and done. Nobody knows for sure, and Chair Jerome Powell injected enough uncertainty to ensure a choppy ride ahead.
Wall Street’s $5.1 Trillion Triple-Witching Is Next Market Test
Just as Wall Street traders come to grips with the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cut, Friday’s US options expiration threatens to whipsaw the market some more.
Wall Street’s New Era Off to Rocky Start Despite Big Fed Cut
Jerome Powell delivered exactly what traders up and down Wall Street had long hoped for: A big interest-rate cut that would justify this year’s steep rally in stocks and bonds as the era of tight monetary policy finally began to reverse.
Dalio Downplays Next Fed Move as Investors Flag China Risks
The size of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut this week won’t be a game changer for global investors, though risks from China’s slowdown continue to weigh on their minds, according to participants at a regional forum.
Junk Bond Investors Are Getting Ahead of ‘Rate Cutting Party’
The Federal Reserve’s looming rate cuts are fueling a rally in the riskiest corner of the US corporate bond market, but some investors are concerned the party may not last.
The Fed Is a Poor Guide for Stock Investors
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to begin cutting interest rates this week as moderating inflation allows the central bank to roll back some of its previous rate increases. I expect that some investors will be tempted to chase stocks given the stubborn conventional wisdom that interest rates and stock prices move in opposite directions. They should reconsider.
New Chatbot ETF Promises to Mimic Warren Buffett, David Tepper
It might just be the most audacious bid on Wall Street to exploit newfangled AI tools to mimic the legends of finance.
Mortgage Market’s Historical Sway Dulled as Fed Gears Up to Ease
The $8 trillion mortgage market can trigger big swings across fixed income when the Federal Reserve shifts interest rates, but investors say this time is different.
Vanguard Buys Dollars Saying Fed Rate-Cut Bets Gone Too Far
Vanguard, one of the world’s biggest asset managers, is buying the dollar this week on the view that market bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts are overdone.
Alphabet’s Antitrust Woes Have Made It a Cheap Buy for Bulls
Alphabet Inc. shares have been struggling for the past two months amid mounting regulatory uncertainty. For some bulls, that’s a buying opportunity.
AI Heralds a New Deal for Old Coal Plants
The new thing in electricity is datacenters. The new new thing is … coal?
Microsoft Plans New $60 Billion Buyback, Raises Dividend 10%
Microsoft Corp. raised its quarterly dividend 10% and unveiled a new $60 billion stock-buyback program, matching the size of a repurchase plan three years ago.
Risk Traders Buy Emerging-Market Bond ETFs Ahead of Fed’s Cut
Investors piled money into exchange-traded funds that buy emerging-market bonds on Friday amid optimism that developing-nation debt will get a boost from a highly anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut this week.
Mortgage Rates Puzzle Is a Worry for Housing and the Fed
There’s a puzzle developing in the housing market — mortgage rates have fallen rapidly to their lowest level since early 2023, but would-be homebuyers don’t seem to care. It’s possible this is just a timing issue with rates falling during the slow season for transactions and election jitters giving buyers additional reason to hold off.
Traders See Half-Point Fed Rate Cut Likelier Than Quarter-Point
Bond traders once again see Federal Reserve policymakers as more likely to cut interest rates by a half point than a quarter point at their meeting this week.
Pimco CEO Roman Says Investors Are Piling into Fixed Income
Investors are adding to their fixed income exposure as imminent interest rate cuts create opportunities, according to Emmanuel Roman, chief executive officer of Pacific Investment Management Co.
BlackRock Warns on Bonds, Saying Fed Rate Bets Are Overdone
BlackRock Inc. strategists turned underweight short-dated US Treasuries from overweight, saying the extent of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts the market is betting on is unlikely to pan out.
The US Is Locked in a State of Debt Denial
Perhaps it’s unsurprising that Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are saying nothing about the country’s biggest economic-policy challenge – namely, how to rein in public borrowing. With an election to win, they’d rather emphasize lower taxes and/or higher public spending.
The Fed Should Go Big Now. I Think It Will.
The US Federal Reserve faces a crucial decision at its policy-making meeting this week: Ease off slightly on monetary restraint with a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut, or go for a rare 50-basis-point cut to fend off a recession.
Walmart Has Seized the Baton From Nvidia. What?
Consumer staples are one of the sleepiest sectors of the US stock market. Investors buy them for their low volatility and generous dividends, not exhilarating upside potential. But lately, toothpaste, bleach and certain big-box food retailers seem to be acting like the new semiconductors.
China Bond Yields Sink to Record Low With Intervention in Focus
China’s bond traders defied signs of intervention to push sovereign yields to a record low, setting the stage for a showdown with authorities seeking to tame the blistering debt rally.
The Spirit of Fracking Comes to US Lithium Mining
“Fracking” is an expletive in environmental circles. Yet the spirit of shale is creeping into a business with transformational potential for the energy transition. Schlumberger NV, the industrial giant best known for sucking oil and gas from shale, the seabed (and other places besides), this week announced a breakthrough in direct lithium extraction, or DLE.
Epic Yen Rally Is a Lesson in the Lost Art of FX Intervention
Japan's currency is enjoying an epic rally, heading for the biggest quarterly advance in years. That's quite a shift from a few months ago, when yen bulls were few and far between. Who can claim credit for this turnaround?
OpenAI, Nvidia Executives Discuss AI Infrastructure Needs With Biden Officials
OpenAI Chief Executive Officer Sam Altman and Nvidia Corp. CEO Jensen Huang met with senior Biden administration officials and other industry leaders at the White House, where they discussed steps to address massive infrastructure needs for artificial intelligence projects.
Single-Stock ETF Boom Intensifies With 18 Bets on Overseas Firms
The single-stock ETF frenzy is going global, with a new bid to launch products that give US traders a way to bet directly on overseas companies — without fretting about currency risk.
The Fed Has No Choice But to Assume the Worst
Earlier this year, the Federal Reserve seemed to have time on its side. Payrolls were growing at a healthy clip and the unemployment rate hovered near a five-decade low. Even though there were signs that inflation was licked, there didn’t appear to be much harm in keeping interest rates elevated for a while longer — just in case.
Hedge Fund Arb Trade Surfs $140 Billion Wave of Debt Coming Due
In a niche corner of the bond market, an almost $140 billion wave of maturing debt is poised to lend momentum to what is already one of Wall Street’s hottest hedge fund trades.
Fed to Pursue Three Quarter-Point Cuts This Year, Economists Say
The Federal Reserve is likely to lower interest rates by a quarter-point next week and at each of the two meetings that follow, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
El-Erian Says Cash on Sidelines Is Minimizing Bond Market Losses
Investors are using their massive cash piles to lock in attractive yields in global bond markets, helping to limit losses in the asset class, according to Mohamed El-Erian.
Private Debt Looks for Growth as Traditional Capital Flatlines
Institutional investors, which have traditionally made up private debt’s largest pool of money, are no longer a source of growth for the $1.7 trillion industry.
Gold Climbs to a Record as US Data Bolster Fed Rate Cut Case
Gold climbed to a record after another faster-than-forecast US inflation print and an uptick in applications for unemployment benefits substantiated bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week.
Where Money Managers See Dollar Going as Fed Cuts, US Votes
All signs point to a tough few months ahead for investors charting the dollar’s path, after the US presidential debate and a key inflation reading left markets anticipating heightened volatility through year-end.
Powell’s Inertia Leaves the Fed in a Bind After CPI Surprise
In some ways, central banking requires a trader’s instincts. Policymakers need to marry academic rigor with quick reflexes. There is a time for rumination and a time for action.
Big Tech’s Easy Ride Is Coming to an End
Tech companies of a certain size have long expected an easy ride from authorities, and for good reason. They always got it. Apple Inc. for years abused loopholes to pay virtually zero tax in the European Union while generating record profits there, thanks to special treatment from Ireland, where it bases its European headquarters.
Draghi’s Love Letter to Industrial Strategy Risks Heartbreak
Mario Draghi wants Europe to follow the United States and China down the road marked “industrial strategy.” As Europe’s most influential economist — a former head of the European Central Bank, prime minister of Italy and technocrat supreme — Draghi had enormous leeway in preparing his report on European competitiveness.
Wall Street’s Hottest Business Is About to Cool
Banks and shadow banks are meant to exist in separate worlds, but the financial links between them are increasingly seen as a source of potential instability. That’s a problem for banks because the business of forging those ties has lately been among the hottest activities on Wall Street.
US CPI to Show Another Muted Rise as Fed Debates Rate-Cut Size
Forecasters expect a monthly report on US consumer prices to show another month of muted increases, possibly playing into a Federal Reserve debate over how much to cut interest rates.
Goldman’s Kostin Urges Putting Brake on Stock-Index Reshufflings
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has a message for benchmark managers who are weighing big reshufflings of their indexes to account for a handful of stocks growing to interstellar size: slow down.
US Two-Year Yield Falls to Lowest Since 2022 Ahead of CPI Report
US Treasuries rallied ahead of a closely watched inflation reading that could cement bets on the size of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cut this month.
US 30-Year Mortgage Rate Slides to Lowest Since February 2023
US mortgage rates slid last week to the lowest level since February 2023, emboldening homebuyers and spurring a pickup in refinancing applications in welcome news for the real estate market.
State Street, Galaxy Launch Crypto-Linked ETFs Even as Outflows Build
State Street Global Advisors and Galaxy Asset Management are launching a trio of cryptocurrency-focused exchange-traded funds even as investors pull back from spot Bitcoin funds.
The Stocks, Bonds and Currencies Investors Are Watching During the Trump-Harris Debate
Investors weighing election risks ahead of the first US presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are already a lot more jittery than they were before Trump and his onetime opponent, President Joe Biden, met onstage in June.
Apple, Google Lose Multibillion Dollar Court Fights With EU
Apple Inc. lost its court fight over a €13 billion ($14.4 billion) Irish tax bill and Google lost its challenge over a €2.4 billion fine for abusing its market power, in a double boost to the European Union’s crackdown on Big Tech.
Nvidia’s Blackwell Chip Delay Is Center Stage Amid Stock Slump
The next-generation processor was unveiled six months ago, but has faced engineering snags that delayed its release. While Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang tried to reassure the market last month that revenue from the chip is coming soon, some investors were left wanting for details.
Musk’s AI Side Gig Should Keep Its Distance From Tesla
The all-in view of Tesla Inc. was summed up in a line from a report this summer by one of the more all-in analysts covering the company: “The car is to Tesla what the video game chip is to Nvidia.
Big Oil Faces a ‘Good Sweating.’ Some Aren’t Fit
When John D. Rockefeller wanted to punish a rival, he cut prices to force them to operate at a loss. The father of the modern oil industry had a name for it: a “good sweating.” A century later, OPEC+ is giving Big Oil the modern equivalent of Rockefeller’s time-tested tactics. Not everyone will be fit enough for it.
US Bitcoin ETFs Bleed $1.2 Billion in Longest Run of Net Outflows
US Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have posted their longest run of daily net outflows since listing at the start of the year, part of a wider retreat from riskier assets in a challenging period for global markets.
The Bond Market Rally Rides on How Fast the Fed Cuts Rates
Bond traders who struggled to predict how high the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates are finding the way down just as vexing.
Oracle Cloud Growth Could Cement Wall Street’s Next AI Favorite
Cloud computing has been one of the first industries to get a demonstrable boost from artificial intelligence. Oracle Corp.’s quarterly results on Monday are likely to extend that trend.
Stock-Selloff Fears for September Are Overblown
The US stock market has given us plenty of real and perceived calendar anomalies to think about. There’s the observed tendency for stocks to experience a “Santa Claus rally” (during the last five trading days of the year and the first two of the next) and the weekend effect (where stocks have a habit of slumping on Mondays).
Americans Have a New Piggy Bank to Raid — Their Houses
American consumers have surprised many economists this year by continuing to spend even as their savings shrink and the labor market cools. They’ve been aided in part by pockets of deflation that have boosted their purchasing power on things such as gasoline, automobiles and airfares.
Summers Says Jobs Weakness Makes It Closer Call on Fed Going 50
Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said that while the August employment report wasn’t particularly poor, it did make predicting the size of the Federal Reserve’s likely interest-rate cut this month a tougher call.
Amundi Tie-Up Offers US Private Credit to Wealthy Individuals
Amundi SA and First Eagle Investment Management are looking to raise as much as $5 billion for a new private credit strategy that will offer wealthy individuals in Europe, the Middle East and Asia access to private loans made to mid-size US companies.
Nvidia’s $400 Billion Tumble This Week Makes Bitcoin Look Calm
Nvidia Corp. has wiped out more than $400 billion in value this week, weighing on key equity benchmarks as jitters spread over the health of the US economy and an AI trade that may have gotten ahead of itself.
Blue-Chip Company Debt Deluge Hits Record Two-Day Streak
After two days of record sales in the US blue-chip corporate debt market, another 11 companies are looking to sell bonds on Thursday, and demand for the securities is holding strong by key measures.
Voters Love No Tax on Tips, But Split Over $25,000 Housing Help
Former President Donald Trump’s proposals for targeted tax breaks are resonating with battleground-state voters, who overwhelmingly approve of his ideas to eliminate taxes on tipped income and retirement benefits.
Big Fed Rate Cuts Are Needed for the Young and the Jobless
Despite what you may have heard from the doomers, the US labor market is hardly falling apart at the seams. Layoffs are still extraordinarily low and a report Friday showed that the overall unemployment rate slipped to just 4.2%.
OPEC+ Kicks the Can Down a Very Uphill Road
OPEC+ is like a teabag – it only works in hot water. The late Robert Mabro, one of the savviest oil-market observers, liked to say the cartel only got the job done when it was under prolonged financial pain. To judge by its latest actions, OPEC+ has yet to realize it’s inside a warming kettle.
Why Singapore Is Bringing Blockchain Into Mutual Funds
Most people see “blockchain” and “funds” in the same sentence and immediately think of pools of money betting on cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ether. That isn’t how Singapore sees the utility of distributed ledgers.
US Job Growth Comes Up Short in Possible Warning Sign for Fed
US hiring fell short of forecasts in August after downward revisions to the prior two months, a development likely to fuel ongoing debate over how much the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates.
Traders Add to Bets on Jumbo Fed Cuts as Data Fuels Bond Rally
US Treasuries gained and traders ramped up their bets that the Federal Reserve will opt for a supersized interest-rate cut this month after a mixed report on the US labor market.
BlackRock Dials Back Risk Across $131 Billion Model Portfolios
The world’s biggest asset manager is taking some chips off the table as markets enter a “new phase” of turbulence ahead of a Federal Reserve interest rate cutting cycle and the US presidential election.
S&P 500 Earnings Hinge on Trump, Harris Tax Plans, Goldman Says
Tax policies touted in the US presidential election could have a big impact on S&P 500 earnings, according to Goldman Sachs Inc. strategists.
Wall Street’s Big Bet on Jumbo Fed Cuts Hangs on US Jobs Report
The bold bet from the likes of Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. that the Federal Reserve will slash interest rates by a half-percentage-point this month faces its biggest test yet from Friday’s US jobs report.
American Drivers Signal a Top in Gasoline Demand
Labor Day weekend, marking the end of the US summer driving season, is typically the year’s last hurrah for gasoline producers. This year, the high-fives were reserved for drivers (and White House occupants): The average pre-long weekend pump price was down 13% from last year after gasoline refining margins collapsed in August. Pump prices have eased further this week.
Jane Street and Citadel Won’t Devour All of Wall Street’s Revenue
Jane Street Group LLC and Citadel Securities are on a tear. First-half revenue at the two predominantly electronic market makers grew about 80% compared with the first six months of 2023, according to Bloomberg News. That’s enough to make traditional Wall Street executives green with envy — but these upstarts aren’t going to completely devour the old guards’ lunch.
US Yield Curve Disinverts as Soft Labor Data Fuels Fed Cut Bets
A key segment of the US Treasury yield curve briefly turned positive as weaker-than-anticipated labor-market data bolstered bets on steep interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Would-Be Corporate Dip Buyers Armed With Fresh $107 Billion
Equity bulls looking for signs of relief after Tuesday’s stock rout may get a hand from a familiar friend: corporate America.
Bond Volatility in US Eclipses Europe as Recession Angst Rises
Bond traders are bracing for wilder market swings in the US than in Europe, as signs the world’s largest economy is faltering fuel bets on a jumbo interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve.
Nvidia Rout Has Traders Watching $100-Share Level Amid ‘Vacuum’
The sharp selloff that wiped a record $279 billion off Nvidia Corp.’s market value on Tuesday has traders scouring charts for clues as to where the pain might end.
The Fed Is Containing Yuan Bears. That’s Ironic
After a bruising few years, Asian currencies have suddenly become fashionable again. But this enthusiasm is dependent on words and deeds far away. The direction of global markets is driven overwhelmingly by the US. For now, that means interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
AI Culture Will Be Weirder Than You Can Imagine
There are two radically different visions of our AI future, and they depend on the cost of energy.
Firms Pile Into Bond Market in Busiest Day on Record
A record number of blue-chip firms swarmed the US corporate bond market on Tuesday, taking advantage of cheaper borrowing costs as they look to issue debt ahead of the US presidential election.
Sizzling ETF Flows in Manic Markets Fuel a $609 Billion Haul
Half your coworkers might have just spent August in Europe, but there were no holiday doldrums in the booming world of ETFs.
Cliff Asness Is ‘Old Man Whinging’ as Markets Get Less Efficient
Cliff Asness says he sounds like an “old man whinging,” but that’s not stopping him from writing 23 pages on his latest thesis: Financial markets these days aren’t what they were.
Shorts Are Circling Some of the AI Boom’s Biggest Question Marks
It’s the story of so many stock market manias: A transformative technology juices a few companies, a bunch of more questionable outfits follow in their wake, and Wall Street buys it all. Then time sorts out what’s real from fake.
Apple Rally Fueled by AI Promises Approaches a Crucial Test
Apple Inc.’s upcoming iPhone release has sent its stock price soaring because of promised artificial-intelligence features. Those gains appear vulnerable, at least in the short term, if history is any guide.
Wall Street Strategists Face Their Own Short Squeeze
Since the pandemic, Wall Street strategists have repeatedly underestimated the performance of the US stock market in their annual projections, leading to a mad dash to boost their outlooks in the back end of the year.
Yes, Let’s Reverse Brexit (a Bit) for Gen Z
What’s the point of Keir Starmer’s massive electoral majority if he remains hesitant to do something for young people on Brexit that’s not just compassionate and sensible, but also very popular?
BLS Data Slipups Are Becoming a Pattern
This can’t keep happening. With trust in government already ebbing, there’s yet one more reason to question the integrity of the office that distributes key data about jobs and prices. The problems at the Bureau of Labor Statistics need to be addressed quickly for the good of financial markets, the economy and public confidence in the state.
King Dollar's Softening Is Good News for Nearly Everyone
Has the tide turned decisively against King Dollar? A fall of around 5% in the greenback versus major currencies in the past two months, pushing the dollar index to a 13-month low, suggests its post-pandemic surge has meaningfully faltered.
Swap Bonds for Commodities in 60/40 Funds, BofA Strategists Say
Investors pursuing widely followed 60/40 strategies should consider swapping out bonds for commodities, according to strategists at Bank of America Corp.
Fed Favored Inflation Gauge’s Mild Gain Sets Stage for Rate Cut
The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of underlying US inflation rose at a mild pace and household spending picked up in July, reinforcing policymakers’ plan to start cutting interest rates next month.
What Jack Nicholson Knew About Forecasting Errors
Forecasting anything, let alone something as complicated as the economy, is fraught. Stretches of decent growth and low inflation that look, in retrospect, like happy days, can be upended by unforeseen events. Covid, the descent into recession and the sharp rebound are just a few examples. Errors, unfortunately, are an unavoidable part of trying to map the future.
Nvidia Investors Must Remember — Hardware Is Hard
There’s an adage in Silicon Valley: Hardware is hard. And expensive. And time-consuming. That’s the case even when you’re a company that’s really good at it — like Nvidia Corp., whose market value has grown to $3 trillion thanks to its extraordinary prowess in the trickiest hardware challenge today: building cutting-edge chips for artificial intelligence.
Nvidia Discusses Joining OpenAI’s Latest Funding Round
Nvidia Corp., the world’s biggest chipmaker, has discussed joining a funding round for OpenAI that would value the artificial intelligence startup at more than $100 billion, according to people familiar with the matter.
One-Day-Only Funds Are Jack Bogle’s Nightmare Brought to Life
The late Jack Bogle — father of the first index fund — famously loathed their exchange-traded offspring, warning that it only incentivize speculative trading among “fruitcakes, nut cases and lunatic fringe.” Fast forward to 2024, and critics warn a new generation of ETFs are designed to do exactly that.
The Fed Is No Longer the Only Game in Town
Last week’s meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole was a kind of victory lap for the Fed. It may have also marked the peak of its power.
Fed Rate Cuts Are No Magic Fix for Anemic Hiring
Chair Jerome Powell cemented a shift in focus from inflation to employment last week when he said that the Federal Reserve does not seek a further cooling in the labor market. It was a welcome message for those concerned about an economic slowdown. But there are reasons to expect today’s sluggish hiring environment to persist at least into early next year, frustrating job seekers and policymakers alike.
Treasury Yields Rise After Resilient Data Suggests Measured Fed
US Treasury yields edged higher after resilient economic reports prompted traders to slightly trim their expectations for the scope of Federal Reserve easing this year.
Nvidia Pays Price of Lofty Expectations, Stoking Fear for Rivals
Nvidia Corp.’s earnings report needed to be perfect for a stock that’s added nearly $2 trillion in market value in the past year. In the end, a broad beat still sparked a selloff.
With AI Story Intact and Rate Cuts Imminent, Markets Turn Higher
Nvidia Corp.’s earnings report was impressive by virtually any metric — except its own recent history.
Nvidia Tumbles After Disappointing Forecast, Blackwell Chip Snags
Nvidia Corp. failed to live up to investor hopes with its latest results on Wednesday, delivering an underwhelming forecast and news of production snags with its much-awaited Blackwell chips.
Why the Fed Shouldn’t Stop Worrying About Inflation
At the recent central-bank symposium at Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered a widely expected message on interest rates: “The time has come for policy to adjust.” He all but confirmed that the Fed would cut rates by at least a quarter-point when its policymakers next meet in September.
Nvidia’s Earnings Will Test the S&P 500’s $4 Trillion Recovery
The almost $3 trillion rally in Nvidia Corp. shares over the roughly two years since ChatGPT’s unveiling has virtually rewired the US stock market, giving the artificial intelligence chipmaking giant an outsized influence on a bevy of equity indexes.
Fed Embraces Gradualism, a Familiar Policy for Uncertain Times
With a September interest-rate cut all but certain and attention turning to the pace of future reductions, Federal Reserve officials are coalescing around a gradual approach to the last mile of their inflation fight.
NFL Owners Set to Vote on Letting Private Equity Invest in Teams
NFL owners are set to vote on selling stakes in their franchises to private equity, potentially joining a shift by professional sports leagues to attract institutional investors.
California’s EV Dreams Face an Awkward Reality
California wants some insurance against pump prices. But in proposing that oil companies there hold a minimum stockpile of fuels, the state is also, and less obviously, seeking insurance against the complications of its own energy policies. In seeking to kill off gasoline demand but ensure suppliers stay engaged for years to come, the state is confronting one of the central challenges of the energy transition.
When Did the Great Stagnation Actually Begin?
“What happened in 1971?” It is one of the most important and debated questions in US economic history, and new research suggests that the answer may be lurking a few decades earlier — in 1948, to be precise.
Global Money Piles Into Indonesia as Fed Easing Cycle Approaches
Global money has flooded into Indonesia’s financial markets this month, signaling the country’s assets have quickly become a preferred investment destination as the US Federal Reserve’s easing cycle nears.
‘T-Bill and Chill’ Is a Hard Habit for Investors to Break
It’s been the ultimate no-brainer for more than a year: Park your money in super-safe Treasury bills, earn yields of more than 5%, rinse and repeat. Or as billionaire bond investor Jeffrey Gundlach put it last October, “T-bill and chill.”
PDD’s $55 Billion Stock Crash Sends Warning on China Economy
One of the last remaining bright spots for Chinese consumption is rapidly fading, as the nation’s economic malaise takes a toll on demand for even the most accessible of goods.
Nvidia to Keep Surfing Tech Spending Wave: Earnings Week Ahead
Expectations heading into Nvidia Corp.’s Wednesday report are high, with analysts anticipating another strong consensus beat that could prompt the chipmaker to raise its profit guidance.
Powell Ignored the Elephant in the Fed’s Jackson Hole Lodge Jonathan Levin
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday removed all doubt that interest rate cuts are just around the corner. “The time has come for policy to adjust,” he said at his much-hyped annual speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, setting off a knee-jerk rally in stocks and bonds.
AI Giants Can Learn a Thing or Two From Mark Zuckerberg
Mark Zuckerberg may have a history of copying of others’ ideas, but when it comes to navigating the generative AI hype cycle, he’s the one forging a smarter path.
Fed Criticism Is Cheap, and It’s Mostly Mistaken
I have listened to people bellyache about the Federal Reserve my entire adult life: Alan Greenspan lowered interest rates too much after the dot-com crash in 2000. Ben Bernanke printed too much money to bail out banks during the 2008 financial crisis.
Trump’s ‘Made in USA’ Bitcoin Threatens China Juggernaut Bitmain’s Reign
For years, a Chinese company has dominated one of the most lucrative corners of the cryptocurrency universe. Rising political tensions, and the prospect of Donald Trump retaking the White House, pose an unprecedented threat to that reign.
‘It’s Just Atrocious’: Jobs Snafu Stokes Fury on Wall Street
There’s no shortage of market-moving events on the docket to keep Wall Street busy right now.
Tesla’s Steep Price Cuts Help Get the Used EV Market Humming
Since early last year, the cars rolling off Tesla Inc.’s California assembly lines have been selling for steadily lower prices. This has had a happy knock-on effect on a car lot just across the freeway from the company’s San Francisco Bay area factory.
Countries Risk Overestimating Debt Capacity, Jackson Hole Paper Shows
Governments in the US and other developed countries, thanks to their central banks, may be deluded over how much debt they can pile up without significantly raising their costs to borrow.
Oaktree Plans to Seek Partner for 3,800 Home Project in Dublin
An Oaktree Capital Management LP venture plans to seek an equity partner to help develop a Dublin project that’s expected to be valued at billions of euro when it’s completed, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
Treasuries Rally as Powell Locks in Bets on a September Rate Cut
Treasuries rallied after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole cemented expectations that the central bank will cut interest rates next month.
Powell Says ‘Time Has Come’ for Fed to Cut Interest Rates
Chair Jerome Powell said the time has come for the Federal Reserve to cut its key policy rate, affirming expectations that officials will begin lowering borrowing costs next month and making clear his intention to prevent further cooling in the labor market.
Private Credit Loses Ground in Fight for Family Office Money
It’s the hottest trade on Wall Street. Everywhere you turn, money managers have upped their investments in private credit, helping the asset class balloon into a $1.7 trillion industry. But there’s one group where interest appears to already be waning — the family office.
Economists See Faster Labor Cooling, Steeper Fed Cuts in Survey
A labor market softening more so than previously thought should spur faster and steeper interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, according to the latest Bloomberg monthly survey of economists.
Big Tech Dominance Is Forcing Index Superpowers to Rethink Rules
The Big Tech boom is causing headaches for all-powerful index providers on Wall Street, who can send billions of benchmark-tracking dollars on the move with just a stroke of the pen.
Is Elon Musk the Bankers’ Moby Dick? Not Yet
Call me Ishmael. The biggest question about an investment banking client like Elon Musk is whether he turns out to be a Moby Dick.
Apple and Alphabet’s Freakish Earnings Broke This Market Barometer
One of the most widely followed gauges of the stock market, for decades a reliable indicator of future returns, has led investors astray in recent years. Its misdirection comes down to the freakish earnings growth of big technology companies such as Apple Inc. and Alphabet Inc.
Meta Shares Are Flying High as Zuckerberg Sells His AI Vision
Technology giants that want to spend big on artificial intelligence and stay in the good graces of investors should take a page out of Meta Platforms Inc.’s playbook.
EM Stocks Getting Cheaper as Investors Cool to Analyst Optimism
Emerging-market stocks are trading at the steepest discount to US equities since the Covid-19 panic in March 2020 as skittish investors look elsewhere for growth opportunities.
Euro Rally Risks Being Abruptly Cut Short by Jerome Powell
The euro’s August gains have been relentless, taking it to a one year high against the dollar on Wednesday, but a cautious tone from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday could turn that momentum around.
Powell Confronts Policy Crossroads With All Eyes on Jackson Hole
Chair Jerome Powell will usher in the next chapter in the Federal Reserve’s inflation battle on Friday, when he’s expected to set the table for an interest-rate cut while reassuring investors that policymakers can stave off a sharp economic slowdown.
Homes Will Be Affordable Again – Just Not Anytime Soon
The worst of the housing affordability crisis is behind us. But the past two years have shown that housing isn’t a bubble that is likely to pop overnight, nor can prices be forced lower in the short term with government intervention. Rising incomes, falling mortgage rates, more construction and thoughtful policy will slowly chip away at the affordability problem.
Bond Traders Amassing Historic Level of Risk on Rate-Cut Bets
Bond traders are taking on a record amount of risk as they bet big on a Treasury market rally fueled by expectations the Federal Reserve will embark on its first interest-rate cut in more than four years.
Nvidia Eyes Return to Record as AI Spending Bonanza Continues
With questions swirling around Federal Reserve policy, the state of the economy and the US presidential race, at least one thing seems clear on Wall Street: spending on artificial intelligence remains a central priority.
Asset Managers Must Invest in Private Markets Now, Bain Says
A wide variety of asset managers need to look at investing in private markets if they want to avoid wipe-out, while revamping their entire strategies to ride the wave, according to Bain & Co.
Fed Confronts Up to a Million US Jobs Vanishing in Revision
US job growth in the year through March was likely far less robust than initially estimated, which risks fueling concerns that the Federal Reserve is falling further behind the curve to lower interest rates.
Citi Says Hedge Funds Are Using Dollars for New Carry Trades
Citigroup Inc. says the carry trade is back, but with a key difference: hedge funds are borrowing US dollars rather than the yen for their wagers on emerging markets.
Amazon’s AI Spending Plans Keep Stock From Joining Tech Rebound
More than any of the megacap technology stocks, Amazon.com Inc.’s big spending ways are coming at the expense of profits, and its shares are being punished as a result.
Welcome to the End of the Biggest Commodity Boom
Oil, copper, soybeans and a handful of others monopolized the attention — but of all commodities, the humble lump of iron ore benefited the most from the Chinese economic boom of the last 25 years.
Recession Guesswork Is Just as Reliable as It Sounds
The term “recession” made a big comeback in news stories and social media posts this month. Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s Chief Economist Jan Hatzius was among those who formally bumped up his odds of a downturn to considerable media hoopla.
JPMorgan, Aviva Shrug Off EM Rout on Bet for Soft US Landing
Investors including JPMorgan Asset Management, M&G Investments and Aviva Investors say they seized on the retreat in riskier assets at the start of the month to bolster their holdings of emerging-market bonds.
As Tech Stocks Rebound, High Hedging Costs Indicate Skepticism
The recent rebound in US tech stocks isn’t convincing options traders just yet.
The Stakes Are High for Powell and the Fed at Jackson Hole
This year’s presentation by Chair Jerome Powell is eagerly awaited due to the economic fluidity and financial volatility that the US has been experiencing, and its spillovers to the rest of the world.
How the Treasury Is More Powerful Than the Fed
Decisions made by the Treasury get much less attention than those made by the Federal Reserve, but they can be even more consequential for interest rates — and the entire US economy.
Global Bond Traders Are Seeking Protection From Inflation Threat
Just as bond traders grow more assured that inflation is finally under control, a camp of investors is quietly building up protection against the risk of a future spike in prices.
Texas Instruments Wins $4.6 Billion in Chips Act Grants, Loans
Texas Instruments Inc. is set to receive $1.6 billion in Chips Act grants and $3 billion in loans, the Biden administration announced Friday, marking the latest major award from a program designed to boost American semiconductor manufacturing.
Tech Rally Propels Emerging Stocks to Best Week in Four Months
Emerging-market stocks rallied on Friday, driven by tech companies in Asia, following US data which boosted investor optimism that the world’s biggest economy will avoid a recession.
Oil’s AI Hedge Works, Just Don’t Mention a Recession
Earlier this year, around the time Nvidia Corp.’s market cap eclipsed that of the entire S&P 500 energy sector, I wrote about whether oil and gas stocks might offer a decent hedge when AI-fever breaks. The past several weeks have offered a test.
New US Home Construction Falls to Slowest Pace Since May 2020
New-home construction in the US fell in July to the lowest level since the aftermath of the pandemic as builders respond to weak demand that’s keeping inventory levels high.
We Need to Talk About Taxes
At the end of next year, most of the provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 are set to expire. If nothing is done, taxes will go up. Both presidential contenders say they won’t let this happen and have promised to extend many or most of the law’s changes.
BlackRock Says Blended Finance at ‘Turning Point’ as Deals Grow
BlackRock Inc. says the market for blended finance has now reached a “turning point,” as it targets growth in deals that combine private and public funding.
Wall Street Just Got Its Most Volatile ETF as Risky Bets Boom
In a part of the US market for exchange-traded funds that has become known for increasingly risky products, a new offering has debuted that stands out in the crowd.
Carry Trade That Blew Up Markets Is Attracting Hedge Funds Again
A popular yen-centered carry trade that blew up spectacularly two weeks ago is staging a comeback.
Man Group Quants Are Riding Private Boom for Public Stock Trades
Quant traders at Man Group Plc are betting that unlocking the secrets of private markets will give them an edge in trading public stocks.
What Panic? Stocks Are Quickly on Way Back to Record Highs
With US equities on the rebound, this summer’s selloff is looking more like a pause in the bull market than the beginning of its end.
Five Big Questions for the Fed at Jackson Hole
When US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks at next week’s annual economic conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, people will be listening intently for any hint about what the central bank will do with interest rates at its September policy making meeting.
Walmart Shoppers Explain State of the US Economy
If rising layoffs and weakening consumption are going to snowball into a US recession at some point, my interpretation is that the mass of macroeconomic ice crystals is still only about the size of a marble.
Alphabet Shares Face Months of Uncertainty on New Breakup Risk
Alphabet Inc. investors are facing a long period of uncertainty as they grapple with a scenario they previously saw as unlikely: a possible breakup of Google.
Soros, Druckenmiller Pared Megacap Holdings Ahead of Summer Rout
George Soros and Stanley Druckenmiller’s investment firms trimmed their holdings in “Magnificent Seven” stocks before this year’s ebullient run-up in technology companies gave way to a major downturn in mid-July.
Is Private Equity a Threat? We Need a Better Answer
Is private equity a problem? To what extent could this class of investment funds, which manages almost $9 trillion worldwide on behalf of everyone from wealthy individuals to California teachers, cause or propagate the next financial crisis?
The Market May Be Too Aggressive on Fed Rate Cuts
The inflation numbers this week — both for producer and consumer prices — have served to reassure markets in two distinct ways: confirming continued progress in the battle against high price increases and supporting the ongoing shift in the Federal Reserve’s focus from its inflation mandate to its employment mandate.
Buffett’s Apple Sale Brings Value Back to Quality Investing
Warren Buffett’s longtime business partner Charlie Munger brought quality to value investing. Now Buffett is bringing value to quality investing.
Bond Traders Trim Bets on Fed Rate Cuts After Inflation Data
Bond investors pared back their expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts slightly as data showed US inflation ebbed further in July, reinforcing the case for a quarter-point reduction next month.
Receding AI Stock Euphoria Has Bulls Seeing Some Opportunities
Skeptics had long warned that artificial intelligence-related stocks were in a bubble. Now that some of the froth has come off, bulls see an opportunity.
US Considers a Rare Antitrust Move: Breaking Up Google
A bid to break up Alphabet Inc.’s Google is one of the options being considered by the Justice Department after a landmark court ruling found that the company monopolized the online search market, according to people with knowledge of the deliberations.
UBS’ Yard Sale Is the Star of Its Earnings Show
A year after UBS Group AG completed its emergency takeover of failing rival Credit Suisse, the project is faring better than the Swiss bank dared hope. It’s cut unwanted assets, people and costs faster than it promised — enabling it to deliver forecast-beating profits so far in 2024.
A Break in the Weather: Good News From the World’s Farms
The headlines suggest catastrophe for the global food supply: Biblical heatwaves, floods, storms and wildfires. And yet, in the world’s breadbaskets, the weather has been fair this growing season — so good that we’re facing an oversupply of key agricultural commodities and thus much lower prices than in 2022 and 2023.
There’s Something Fishy About Insiders’ ‘Other’ Trades
Regulators and investors have always had a keen interest in the trades that corporates executives and board members make in their companies’ own shares. The government has to look out for the integrity of financial markets, of course, while investors are eager to ride insiders’ coattails. Unfortunately, it’s never been easy to read the insider tea leaves.
Dimon Says He’s Skeptical Inflation Will Return to Fed’s 2% Target
JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said he’s skeptical that inflation will return to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, citing risks including deficit spending and “remilitarization of the world.”
MSCI Trims China’s Index Presence by Removing DozenAbhishek Vishnoi and Sangmi Chas of Stocks
MSCI Inc. continues to cull China stocks from its indexes, setting the stage for a further drop in the nation’s share of a key emerging-market benchmark.
US Producer Prices Rise Less Than Forecast, Dragged by Services
US producer prices rose in July by less than forecast, reflecting the first decline in services costs this year amid an ongoing moderation in inflationary pressures.
How Big Is the Yen Carry Trade, Really?
When two popular trades, such as buying US big tech stocks and selling the Japanese yen, are unraveling at the same time, investors naturally think they are somehow related.
Interest-Rate Cuts Rely on Inconvenient Truths About Inflation
The tricky last yards of closing in on — and then maintaining — the hallowed 2% inflation target that all the major central banks adhere to requires a change of tactics. Over the past two years, a mantra of economic data-dependency has been drummed into us, keeping interest rates higher for longer.
Emerging Stocks, Currencies Diverge as Markets Price Fed Easing
The benchmark indexes for emerging-market equities and currencies, respectively, moved in opposite directions Monday, deepening a trend that emerged last week, when their short-term correlation was interrupted for the first time in 21 years.
Apple and Alphabet’s Freakish Earnings Broke This Market Barometer
One of the most widely followed gauges of the stock market, for decades a reliable indicator of future returns, has led investors astray in recent years. Its misdirection comes down to the freakish earnings growth of big technology companies such as Apple Inc. and Alphabet Inc. But there’s a way to revamp this market barometer as worries about elevated expectations and prices grow.
The Fed Is Too Late to Save the Housing Market This Year
The recent decline in mortgage rates on stronger evidence that the Federal Reserve is poised to ease policy has fueled hopes of better times ahead for companies tied to the housing market. That’s likely true, but the evidence of the past few weeks suggests it’s already too late for a revival this year.
Private Credit Enters Risky Terrain With Huge Bets on Consumers
First the private credit firms came for the banking industry’s lucrative corporate loan business. Now they’re grabbing a chunk of their consumer-lending work. The pressing question for this thriving multi-trillion dollar industry is whether it has timed its latest incursion badly.
Big Tech, Health-Care and High-Yield Stocks Are Dip-Buying Targets
A dizzying start to August, which saw US stocks whiplashed by economic jitters, lackluster earnings and the unwinding of the global yen carry trade, has left Wall Street searching for corners of the market that may have been unfairly punished.
Emerging-Market Currencies Gain, Set for Best Week of 2024
Emerging-market currencies are set to clock their biggest weekly gains of 2024, led by a rise in Brazil’s real on expectations its central bank could raise interest rates later this year.
With US Chips Act Money Mostly Divvied Up, the Real Test Begins
The Biden administration is nearly finished divvying up $39 billion in grants under the Chips and Science Act, the landmark bipartisan legislation aimed at revitalizing the domestic semiconductor industry. The bigger test still lies ahead.
Buffett’s Apple Share Dump Is Set to Reshape Major Stock Gauges
Warren Buffett’s sudden sale of a huge pile of Apple Inc. shares has come with a surprise silver lining for investors in the iPhone maker: Its influence in major stock indexes is set to be fully unleashed.
The S&P Always Looks Good Next to European Stocks
When markets gyrated at the turn of the month, US and Japanese stocks had the cushion of an earlier surge to fall back on. In Europe, the rout hit share prices that had been weakening since May. An earnings season dominated by pessimism from many of the region’s bosses has vindicated investors’ caution.
Fed Seen Rejecting Calls for Jumbo Rate Cut in Economist Survey
A large majority of economists surveyed see only a quarter-point decrease in interest rates coming in September — a finding that’s at odds with calls from some large Wall Street banks for a jumbo cut at the next meeting.
Investor Behind Record $2.7 Billion Bond Bet Says Recession Near
Back in June, a mystery investor made a record wager on long-dated Treasuries, creating waves in the ETF market where trading pros seek clues about sentiment on Wall Street. Now the firm behind that bet has revealed itself, and says its recession call is finally coming to fruition.
Wall Street Sees End of Fed’s Balance-Sheet Runoff This Year
The end of the Federal Reserve’s balance-sheet unwind is in sight, though its actual conclusion depends on the pace of interest-rate cuts and stresses in funding markets.
Nvidia Value Takes $900 Billion Hit Even as AI Spending Ramps Up
On the surface, Nvidia Corp.’s $900 billion selloff since its June record would suggest the artificial intelligence spending boom that propelled it there is cooling. But the undercurrents tell a far less dire story.
Steven Mnuchin Says It’s Time to Kill the New Treasury Bond He Created
It only takes a quick glance at the US bond curve to realize something is off. One Treasury security — the 20-year — is detached from the rest of the market. It hovers at yields that are far higher than those on the bonds surrounding it — the 10-year and the 30-year.
Gig Economy Emerges as a Bright Spot Amid Gloomy Tech Earnings
It has been a tough earnings season for the technology industry, and markets more broadly.
How Much Should Stocks Correct? Less Than You May Think
The stock selloff of the past month is forcing investors to think about whether the market remains too high, and if so, how far it might fall.
The Fed’s Wild Ride Has Just Begun
Has the US Federal Reserve gone too far in its fight against inflation, tipping the world’s largest economy into a damaging recession?
Beware the Bombs Baked Into Modern Stock Markets
Investor complacency is often blamed when rising stock markets ignore potentially unsettling data for weeks and then viciously sell off. But this very human-sounding characteristic mostly isn’t in the minds of traders: It’s baked into the structure of modern investment strategies.
Corporate America Stampedes Into Debt as Sales Pass $1 Trillion
Corporate borrowers are selling investment-grade bonds at the fastest clip since 2020 as companies take advantage of lower yields to issue debt before the November election.
The Fed Should Resist Placating Markets
Family Feud, a popular game show when I was growing up, would ask contestants to guess how a group of people had answered a specific question. It served as a regular and early reminder for me of the importance of supplementing one’s thinking with external perspectives.
A Recession Wouldn’t Be So Bad This Time
Turmoil in the markets has renewed fears that the US did not escape history after all, that a hard landing — a recession — is coming. Whether this is all a blip from a rising yen or a justified reaction to an actual weakening of the US economy is still unknowable.
America’s Debt Crisis Is Getting Too Big to Solve
Fiscal conservatism has more or less vanished from America’s political landscape. Government borrowing, despite the strong economy, continues to push public debt to record levels – and the presidential contenders and their parties say scarcely a word about it.
Big Tech Traders Struggle to Find Reasons to Buy This Dip
For months investors have faced a dilemma — pay through the nose for technology giants trading at eye-watering multiples, or wait for a cheaper entry point and risk missing out on the year’s biggest bull run.
Goldman Says Buying S&P After 5% Drop Is Usually Profitable
Buying US stocks after a slump of the scale witnessed over the past month has usually been profitable, according to a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysis of four decades of data.
Treasury Rally Ignites Debate on How Fast Fed Needs to Cut
A major rally in the $27 trillion Treasury market is laying bare anxiety that the US economy is sliding into recession and the Federal Reserve will need to start aggressively cutting interest rates.
What Bankers Say You Should (and Shouldn’t) Do When Markets Crash
On days like Monday’s dramatic selloff, which capped a three-week loss of $6.4 trillion in global wealth, personal finance experts usually have the same advice for wary retail investors:
AI Is Getting Cheaper. That Won’t Fix Everything
For a technology that promises to help businesses cut costs, artificial intelligence has had a big problem with being so costly.
The Fed Should Cut Rates Swiftly — Recession or Not
Friday’s weaker-than-expected jobs report has sparked a robust debate about whether the economy is sliding into recession or whether the rise in the unemployment rate in July was due to a continuing post-pandemic normalization of the labor market.
Buffett's $277 Billion Cash Hoard After Selling Apple Is a Warning
Warren Buffett has been selling a lot of stock, and that revelation is inducing his many admirers to follow suit. His Omaha, Nebraska-based conglomerate, Berkshire Hathaway Inc., reported Saturday that it reduced several positions and slashed its stake in top-holding Apple Inc., a sign to some in markets that the “Oracle of Omaha” was bracing for deep stock-market declines.
Nasdaq 100 Futures Indicate Gauge’s Worst Open in Four Years
The Nasdaq 100 is set for its biggest opening drop in more than four years, with investors bracing for days of volatility amid rising concerns over a slowing US economy and overheated gains in the tech sector.
Global Bond Rally Accelerates as Market Bets on Big Rate Cuts
Global bonds rallied as traders bet the Federal Reserve and fellow central banks will turn more aggressive in cutting interest rates amid mounting concern that economic growth is faltering at a faster pace than expected just weeks ago.
Wall Street’s Bears Warn on Risks to Stocks From Slowing Economy
The US stock plunge is vindicating some of Wall Street’s most prominent bears, who are doubling down with warnings about risks from an economic slowdown.
An Emergency Fed Rate Cut Would Be A Mistake
With stock markets plunging around the world, traders are talking up the prospect of an emergency interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve after the US central bank passed up the opportunity to ease policy last week. Not only is this highly unlikely, it would be counterproductive.
Bitcoin Plunges, Ether Has Worst Drop Since 2021 as Crypto Sinks
Cryptocurrencies reeled from a bout of risk aversion in global markets on Monday, at one point sending Bitcoin down more than 16% and saddling second-ranked Ether with the steepest fall since 2021.
Bezos’ Wealth Drops by $21 Billion as Amazon Sinks on AI Fears
Jeff Bezos’ wealth slumped by more than $21 billion after Amazon.com Inc. said it planned to continue spending big on artificial intelligence even at the expense of short-term profits.
Munis Extend Rally as Jobs Miss Cements Path to Fed Rate Cut
Municipal bonds extended their rally on Friday after a lackluster jobs number cemented expectations that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates by the end of its next meeting in September.
JPMorgan, Citi See Fed Dealing Two Half-Point Rate Cuts in 2024
Wall Street banks are calling for aggressive interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve based on the latest evidence that the labor market is cooling.
Jobs Report Should Put a Jumbo Fed Rate Cut on the Table
In markets and economics, you sometimes have to hold two thoughts in your head simultaneously — an important lesson on a day in which the US unemployment rate unexpectedly surged to its highest in nearly three years.
Even Convertible Arbitrageurs Are Abandoning China
Global investors are gobbling up bonds that can be turned into stocks, feeling good about the prospects and return potentials of smaller companies.
A $1 Trillion Time Bomb Is Ticking in the Housing Market
Cassandras seldom get opportunities to be right about two disasters. Even the original Cassandra scored no notable victories after predicting the fall of Troy. But when a seer who successfully called one catastrophe warns of another coming, you might want to listen.
Big Tech Fails to Convince Wall Street That AI Is Paying Off
Amazon.com Inc., Microsoft Corp. and Alphabet Inc. had one job heading into this earnings season: show that the billions of dollars they’ve each sunk into the infrastructure propelling the artificial intelligence boom is translating into real sales.
Bonds Surge After Soft Jobs Data Raises Pressure on Fed to Cut
The bond-market rally escalated Friday after a report showed that job growth slowed sharply last month, further stoking speculation that the Federal Reserve will start aggressively cutting interest rates to keep the economy from stalling.
Nasdaq 100 Is in Correction Territory With AI Darlings Sinking
The violent rotation from Big Tech plunged the Nasdaq 100 Index into correction territory, wiping out more than $2 trillion in value in just over three weeks, as traders unwound bets that had been minting money for over a year.
Power Plants’ 833% Windfall May Unleash a Political Firestorm
A fifth of Americans are on the hook for an 833% jump in the cost to ensure the lights stay on. The folks being paid that premium, mostly electricity generators in this instance, face that most welcome of problems: What to do with a windfall.
Roubini Confuses Yellen’s Pragmatism for Treasury Activism
Economists Stephen Miran and Nouriel Roubini are making waves by suggesting in a paper published last week that the Treasury Department has actively engineered easier financial conditions by increasing the issuance of short-term bills and, consequently, reducing the share of longer-term notes and bonds, thereby keeping yields lower than they would otherwise be.
Fed on Course for September Rate Cut as Risks to Job Market Grow
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled central bank officials are on course to cut interest rates in September unless inflation progress stalls, citing risks of further labor-market weakening.
Nvidia Adds Record $329 Billion in Value as Volatility Soars
Nvidia Corp.’s wild ride this week is headed for the record books.
US Hiring and Wage Growth Both Slowed in ADP July Data
US companies added the fewest number of workers since the start of the year and wage growth slowed, consistent with signs of a softer labor demand.
Pension Funds Are Hooked on Private Equity, No Matter the Risks
Private equity has been in the news frequently in the last few weeks, and not in a good way.
Trump Likes the Idea of a Federal Bitcoin Reserve. Don’t Laugh
Which financial assets a central bank should buy and sell is hardly a novel question. Historically, the US Federal Reserve has focused on shorter-term Treasury securities, but quantitative easing had the Fed buying mortgage securities and quality commercial paper in significant quantities. More generally, central banks often hold gold and foreign currencies.
US Plans to Hold Note, Bond Sales Steady for ‘Several Quarters’
The US Treasury left its quarterly issuance of longer-term debt unchanged for the second straight time, and maintained its guidance that it doesn’t expect to need increasing issuance of notes and bonds for “several quarters.”
History Favors Stock and Bond Bulls Alike When the FOMC Meets
History is on the side of stock and bond bulls as Federal Reserve officials kick off a two-day policy meeting.
Ackman-Backed Tech Founder Tries to Fulfill His ‘Berkshire 2.0’ Promise
Canadian entrepreneur Andrew Wilkinson’s early decision to ditch a career as a journalist and teach himself web design has proved lucrative, making him the majority owner of a technology investment firm worth more than $300 million.
Will Investors Get Good AI News This Week? Don’t Bet on It
Unfortunately, investors have little else to work with given the table scraps of useful data being offered by the tech giants. None of the top companies have yet adequately spelled out the financial performance of AI adoption on their income statements.
Traders Eye Fed, BOJ Rate Talks With Markets Roiled by Earnings
Volatility is back — at least a little — heading in to a week filled with central bank interest-rate decisions and quarterly earnings for some of the world’s biggest companies.
Even Boom Economies Can Use a Break. Ask South Korea
For South Korea’s economy, it’s not quite a case of first in, first out. But it could be close: Despite some bullish growth forecasts, interest-rate cuts are coming.
Fed’s First Cut Shouldn’t Tie It Down
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently testified that he’d like to see more good news on inflation before cutting interest rates. He got what he asked for.
Big Business Signals to Fed It’s Either Rate Cuts or Job Cuts
When the Federal Reserve signals the likely path of monetary policy to investors this week, including an anticipated start to interest rate cuts in September, it can no longer be complacent about the labor market.
Goldman Sachs Makes Bigger Bet on $129 Billion Muni ETF Market
Goldman Sachs Asset Management is launching four new municipal-bond exchange-traded funds, adding to the $129 billion corner of the state and local government debt market.
Want Good Value on a Home? Check Out San Francisco
San Francisco has been the subject of a lot of negative press over the past several years. It was hit hard by the pandemic exodus from cities, the shift to work from home that emptied offices, the crime and homelessness that marred its national reputation, and pledges by corporate leaders such as Elon Musk to relocate their company headquarters elsewhere.
Jamie Dimon’s Crack at Shadowy Proxy Firms Is Resonating
Pressure is again mounting on the proxy advisory firms that recommend how investors should vote on executive pay and other corporate matters. Regulators need to remember who should be prioritized here — investors, not company management.
Treasuries Lead Global Bond Rally as Traders Bet Cuts Are Near
US bonds rallied sharply as signs of a slowing economy and a recent stock-market rout fueled calls for quicker interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, further juicing bets on a steeper yield curve.
Markets Tear Up the Popular Trades That Reached ‘Stupid Levels’
The assumptions that have driven this year’s global financial markets are being rapidly rethought.
Bitcoin, Ether Slide as Risk Aversion Spreads to Crypto Market
Ether, the second-largest token, paced a drop in digital assets following a slump in equities that spread unease in global markets.
$1 Trillion Rout Hits Nasdaq 100 Over AI Jitters in Worst Day Since 2022
Investors soured on the promise of artificial intelligence Wednesday, sparking a $1 trillion rout in the Nasdaq 100 Index as questions swirled over just how long it will take for the substantial investments in the technology to pay off.
The Fed May Be Two Meetings Away From a Policy Mistake
The US inflation rate, which had surged to over 9% two years ago, is now around 3%. Based on current trends, it should settle at 2.5%-3%, a range that most economists would deem consistent with financial stability, including a firm anchoring of inflationary expectations.
Two-Year Treasuries See Record Investor Demand at Auction
Investors flocked to the US Treasury’s monthly sale of two-year notes in a powerful demonstration of faith in Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts beginning this year.
IPOs Finally Bring Summer Heat With $5.5 Billion in Deals on Tap
US initial public offerings should get a boost this week from as much as $5.5 billion in first-time equity issuance that could be the opening investors have been clamoring for during this latest new listings slump.
US Spot-Ether ETFs Exceed $100 Million Net Inflow in Debut
US exchange-traded funds investing directly in Ether achieved overall net inflows of $107 million on their first day of trading in launches that will provide a window onto mainstream crypto demand outside of Bitcoin.
I Changed My Mind. The Fed Needs to Cut Rates Now
I’ve long been in the “higher for longer” camp, insisting that the US Federal Reserve must hold short-term interest rates at the current level or higher to get inflation under control.