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Why Are U.S. Wages Stuck In A Rut?
by Carl R. Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 8/12/17
Supply and demand theories suggest worker scarcity would increase the price paid for labor. This has certainly been the case during recent American expansions, when annual wage gains topped 4%.

Monetary Policy Rules: Revisited
by Carl R. Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, and Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 8/5/17

Monetary Policy Rules: Revisited and Giving Japan Credit

Will Bond Markets Need Saving?
by Carl R. Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 7/29/17
Long-term interest rates in developed markets have been on a 35-year secular decline, despite the fact that governments in developed markets have gone much more deeply into debt during that interval.

Automation and Anxiety
by Carl R. Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 7/22/17
With artificial intelligence now trained on more commercial applications, many are wondering what other things machines might eventually do better than people. And that prospect is creating economic unease around the world.

French Revolution
by Carl R. Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 7/14/17
Entering 2017, the potential for anti-European Union (EU) forces to gain ground in spring elections was a distinct downside risk.

The U.S. Labor Market Through A Different Lens
by Carl R. Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 7/9/17
The U.S. economy completed eight years of business expansion last week.

Mid-Year Musings
by Carl R. Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 7/2/17
The remainder of 2017 promises to be eventful. The following are key themes we will be watching in the months ahead.

Europe Is On The March
by Carl R. Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 6/23/17
Economic conditions in Europe may not be ideal, but they are looking better than they have in quite some time.

The United Kingdom Faces a Rising Degree of Difficulty
by Carl R. Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 6/17/17
For the second year running, a British Prime Minister has taken an electoral gamble that has backfired. We are left with more questions than answers: what will British leadership look like in six weeks or six months’ time?

Will High-Rises Come Down to Earth?
by Carl R. Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 6/11/17
Property values have escalated briskly, encouraging overdevelopment and pricing residents out of the market. The authorities are now engaged in a campaign to ease conditions without having them crash.

We Should Be Giving More Credit to Students, Not Less
by Carl R. Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 6/2/17

Seniors and their families approach this milestone with a mix of pride and trepidation. Pride arises from the achievement of heightened status within the community of educated women and men. But there is trepidation about what lies ahead at the next level.

Interesting Times In Asia
by Carl R. Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 5/27/17
"May you live in interesting times" is a traditional Chinese curse disguised as a blessing. Looking at emerging Asia today, it can certainly be said that it is both cursed and blessed.

What Does It Mean To “Buy American?”
by Carl R. Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 5/12/17

In this commentary we will summarize:

  • What Does It Mean To “Buy American?”
  • European Populists Lost, But Their Spirit Lives On
  • The ECB Is Right To Stand Pat

The Fed Contemplates the Great Reduction
by Carl R. Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 4/29/17

Having accumulated a massive portfolio of securities during its quantitative easing (QE) program, the Fed has now arrived at a point where reduction is appropriate. But trimming the weight of monetary accommodation may not be easy.

Will the French Election Prove Revolutionary?
by Carl R. Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 4/23/17
The French take great pride in the uniqueness of their culture, which was once their leading export. But there is nothing particularly French about French politics these days.

Bring On Brexit
by Carl R. Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 3/24/17
The British government is set to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty next week, formally signaling its intention to separate from the EU.

Global Supply Chains Contain Inflation
by Carl R. Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 3/17/17
Globalization has profoundly affected politics, society and economic performance. Among its most significant results has been persistent downward pressure on prices.

The Fed’s Rationale for Raising Rates
by Carl R. Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 3/10/17
As recently as a week and a half ago, we were comfortable with our prediction that the Federal Reserve would wait until the middle of the year to take the next step in normalizing U.S. monetary policy.

The World Can’t Afford to Retire
by Carl R. Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 3/3/17
Today, with populations aging, the challenge of fulfilling retirement expectations is an immensely expensive problem.

If You Build It, Will They Come?
by Carl R. Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 2/24/17

Today, it seems as if there is a mysterious voice speaking to politicians all over the world, urging them to build.

An Economic Look at Deregulation
by Carl R. Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 2/11/17
Once entrenched, bureaucracies can be difficult to unearth. In rare instances where restrictions have been relaxed, others have arisen to take their place.

NAFTA’s Complicated Legacy
by Carl R. Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 2/4/17
A huge fraction of U.S. imports and exports travel immediately north and south. Geography is certainly a contributing factor, and the benefits of proximity have been accentuated by the implementation of NAFTA in 1994.

Fuzzy Math on Fiscal Policy
by Carl R. Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 1/27/17
Economic trends and economic policies, which are difficult to evaluate, drive revenues and expenses. Past patterns may not be a good guide to future performance, and there are countless interdependencies among variables.

Cash to Chips, Bricks to Clicks
by Carl R. Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 1/20/17
Consumption is the largest share of gross domestic product in all of the world’s developed markets, and consumption by developed markets provides export opportunities for emerging markets.

Playing Chess With China
by Carl R. Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 1/13/17
China suffered the twin indignities of a currency correction and an equity correction on the first trading day of last year. Fortunately, order was restored and investor attention turned to other global developments.

Global Economic Outlook - January 2017
by Carl R. Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 1/6/17
The incoming U.S. administration and Congress have mapped out some ambitious plans for steering the economy. New governments in several other key countries will be taking their seats and making their marks this year.

U.S. Job Report: The Wage Bill Comes Due
by Carl R. Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 1/6/17

The first significant U.S. economic release of the new year was a solid one. The U.S. Department of Labor reported this morning that 156,000 new jobs had been created in December.

Highlights of the Year
by Carl R. Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 12/17/16
A main lesson to be learned from this year’s events is that we must pay attention to the texture of economic performance.

FOMC Preview: Getting Ready for the New Regime
by Carl R. Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 12/10/16
As the Federal Reserve prepares for its final monetary policy gathering of 2016, it will look back on a year of inactivity and look forward to a year that could very well be an active one.

Decision Day for Italy
by Carl R. Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 12/2/16
The referendum will have critical implications for Italy, of course, as its government could collapse next week. But it is also a warm up for Dutch, French and German elections next year.

An Economic Analysis of the U.S. Election
by Carl R. Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore and Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 11/10/16

A mistake many in my profession have made in the past year has been underestimating the difference between overall economic performance and its translation to the fortunes of constituents. This was at the heart of the Brexit vote last June and was the driving force behind yesterday’s U.S. outcome.

The Two Faces of the U.S. Labor Market
by Carl R. Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 11/5/16
The October employment report was another in a long line of positive readings. A net of 161,000 new positions were created in October, putting the year-to-date average at 181,000.

Trying to Avoid a Bad Trade
by Carl R. Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 10/28/16
In the present day, there are an increasing number of people around the world whose attitudes toward trade are darkening.

A Taxing Campaign
by Carl R. Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 10/15/16
Tax policy is one of the central issues that American voters will consider in making their choices on Election Day.

The Myths of Manufacturing
by Carl R. Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 10/7/16
2016 has not been the most robust of years for the global economy, but recent news on manufacturing has been upbeat.

U.S. Health Care Needs Major Surgery
by Carl R. Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 10/1/16
Covering the subject comprehensively would require far more space than we normally allot to our weekly musings. In the main, it seems clear that the system’s costs and benefits are dangerously misaligned.

Rulers and Rules
by Carl R. Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 9/24/16
Rules play an important role in an economy. Most regulations are designed, at least in theory, to facilitate the achievement of good overall outcomes. But some directives beget unintended consequences and others take on a life that goes far beyond their initial purpose.

Where's the Inflation?
by Carl R. Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 9/17/16
At its peak, the United States was experiencing 15% inflation, a level that is now seen as unconscionable even in emerging markets. The problem seemed intractable.

Focus on the Forest Not the Trees
by Carl R. Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 9/14/16
Doubts about the underlying momentum of the U.S. economy surfaced in the past few weeks. There are soft spots in the economy, but these are not enough to shake the positive fundamentals in place.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl R. Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 11/6/15
The weekly commentary is a review of current activity in global financial markets, with an emphasis on the U.S. fixed income market.
40 results found.