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Emerging Monetary Divergence
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 4/7/17

Over the last decade, a combination of unprecedented global financial integration and unconventional monetary policy in global financial centers created new challenges for central banks in emerging markets (EM).

Global Economic Outlook - April 2017
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital, Brian Liebovich of Northern Trust, 4/6/17

The world’s major economies have performed quite well in recent months despite the influence of political and policy upheaval. Brexit and the outcome of the U.S. election have yet to produce the negative outcomes some had feared.

Political Reality Trumps Policy Ambition
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 4/2/17

The effort to replace the Affordable Care Act (ACA) was an important test for Washington. Congress had elected to take up this debate first, for both procedural and symbolic reasons.

The Fed's Window of Opportunity
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 3/16/17

The Federal Reserve spent a good portion of last year talking tough about raising rates, only to back away at several turns when intimidated by international uncertainty.

Animal Spirits Are High, But the Forecast is Stable
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 3/13/17

The outlook for the U.S. economy is nearly unchanged from expectations at the start of the year. Congress will address tax cuts and infrastructure spending only after passage of an updated health care law.

Policy Uncertainty Looms Large
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 2/15/17
Despite a great deal of news volatility, the U.S. economic landscape is satisfactorily stable. Growth continues, and inflation is not overly threatening.

Positive Backdrop for Growth in 2017
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 1/12/17

The economic setting within the United States as the new year commences is largely constructive. Data received in the latter weeks of 2016 were encouraging, and there seems to be an improving economic sentiment.

FOMC Preview: Getting Ready for the New Regime
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 12/15/16

As the Federal Reserve prepares for its final monetary policy gathering of 2016, it will look back on a year of inactivity and look forward to a year that could very well be an active one.

The View From Far Away
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 11/23/16
Encounters with local residents provide a rich window into the soul of a place as well as a perspective on ourselves that we might not get at home.

The Bond Market’s Ballot
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 11/19/16

The U.S. bond market has retreated since the election. Long-term yields have risen by almost 40 basis points. It appears that the 30-year-old bull market in bonds is really over.

Election Outcome Promises Change
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 11/16/16

Needless to say, the surprise victory of Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election has changed the economic outlook on many fronts.

Global Economic Outlook - October 2016
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Brian Liebovich, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 10/27/16

At the three-quarter pole, the global economy is muddling through a disappointing 2016. Growth in developed and emerging markets continues, but at a pace that has fallen short of expectations.

Breaking Up Is Hard to Do
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 10/21/16
The narrow victory for the Brexit camp last June led many analysts to predict the worst.

A Resilient Economy
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 10/13/16

There were concerns throughout the summer that U.S. economic conditions had weakened. Based on incoming reports, though, the weight of economic evidence remains positive.

A Hawkish Hold
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 9/22/16
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ended the meeting today without a change to the policy rate. But they sent clear signals that a rate increase in December is a strong possibility.

Beware of Larger for Longer
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 9/12/16
Business cycles were disrupted by the chaos of 2008. To respond, central banks have extended themselves in an effort to reach a more settled equilibrium.

Emerging Markets in Improved Position
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 9/3/16
With the Fed getting closer to another interest rate increase, questions are being asked about the resilience of Emerging Markets, given the experience of three years ago.

Looking Past the Olympic Carnival
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 8/28/16
Growing substantially from the first modern Olympics in 1896, which included just 34 events contested by 241 athletes from 14 countries, this year included 306 events and 11,303 competitors from 207 countries.

LIBOR: Checkered Past, Pressured Present
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 8/19/16
The London Interbank Offering Rate sounds like something the financial gentry might discuss in a back room at the Oxford and Cambridge Club.

Slow Summer Daze
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 8/18/16
The subdued performance of the U.S. economy in the second quarter planted doubts about the underlying fundamentals. Is activity going through seasonal doldrums, or is something more fundamental at play?

Global Economic Outlook - July 2016
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore, Victoria Marklew, Marshall Birkey, Ben Trinder, Brian Liebovich, Ankit Mital of Northern Trust, 8/3/16
In late June, the United Kingdom elected to initiate the process of leaving the European Union. In the immediate aftermath of the referendum, pessimists were predicting significant collateral damage to global markets and global economic growth.

Man vs. Debt
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 7/31/16
Whether for religious or cultural reasons, an aversion to indebtedness has deep roots in many parts of the world. And yet the ability for savers to lend their money to others and earn interest in return is at the core of modern financial systems.

The Perils of Populism
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 7/23/16
Populism is not new, and its current incarnation is certainly not its most extreme expression. Wikipedia describes populism as “a political position which holds that the virtuous citizens are being mistreated by a small circle of elites...the elites are depicted as trampling in illegitimate fashion upon the rights, values and voice of the people.”

The Helicopters Have Arrived
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 7/16/16
Japan was the darling of the global economy thirty years ago. Its industry was ascendant, its products were viewed as best-in-class, its banks occupied the top ten places on the global list and its management techniques were studied and emulated worldwide.

Will Brexit Be a Bother?
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 7/12/16
Last week, the United States celebrated 240 years of independence from the United Kingdom. While relations after the separation were initially complicated, the two countries have grown to become close allies.

Brexit Has Created a Run on U.S. Treasuries
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 7/11/16
The U.K. situation remains highly uncertain. Investors continue seeking the safety of government securities, but an increasing number of sovereign bonds around the world carry negative interest rates.

Separating the Signal from the Noise Around Brexit
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 7/3/16
Today, by contrast, we are overloaded with high-frequency communication. We have business networks, countless internet sites and social media all providing continuous news and opinion.

Reaction to the Brexit Vote
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 6/25/16
Some have described the Roman Empire as the first true European Union. Its modern-day successor now faces an existential challenge in the wake of The United Kingdom’s vote to take back some of its sovereignty.

Decision Day Nears for Britain
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 6/17/16
With the European Union (EU) referendum now less than a week away, it is difficult here in Britain to think about much else. Given market movements this week, it appears this is the case throughout much of the globe.

FOMC Preview: Resetting the Timeline
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 6/12/16
Without doubt, last Friday’s U.S. unemployment report initiated some substantial reconsideration within the halls of the Federal Reserve, scarcely a week before a critical policy meeting.

Weighing the Positives and the Negatives
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 6/9/16
Based on the data available, the second quarter appears to have started on strong footing after a soft performance in the first three months of the year.

Reflections from a Round-the-World Tour
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 6/4/16
How does a country achieve the benefits of association without ceding too much control? That seems to be a central question, from Washington to London to Hong Kong.

Compared With Other Countries, U.S. Health Care Looks Sick
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 5/27/16
Health care was a major campaign issue in the last four election cycles. It is too early in the game to determine whether health care becomes the defining issue this time around.

“Trade” Has Become a Four-Letter Word
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 5/21/16
For most of the past generation, trade was in the ascendance. The mantra, “Do what you do best and trade for the rest,” drove policy in most countries.

Is Banking Going Back Into the Shadows?
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 5/13/16
Interest rates have been very low for a long time now. One of the stated intentions of the policy was to encourage investors to be somewhat less conservative, placing their capital in areas that would be more helpful to economic growth.

Better Times Ahead
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 5/12/16
The U.S. economy went through a soft patch in the first quarter. Seasonal adjustment issues played a small role in tipping growth to the soft side. More importantly, a positive outlook for the rest of the year remains in place.

The Plaza Accord Cannot be Reincarnated
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 5/6/16
Thirty-one years ago, the finance ministers from Japan, France, West Germany, Britain and the United States met to synchronize economic policy in support of global objectives. The “Plaza Accord” set the stage for significant shifts in world markets.

The Plaza Accord Cannot be Reincarnated
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 5/1/16
Thirty-one years ago, the finance ministers from Japan, France, West Germany, Britain and the United States met to synchronize economic policy in support of global objectives. The “Plaza Accord” set the stage for significant shifts in world markets.

Global Economic Outlook - April 2016
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 4/27/16
If you had somehow fallen asleep last New Year’s Eve and awoken on March 31, you might not have realized that you’d slept through the first quarter. Economic prospects and market levels were little changed from point to point.

The Sorry State of the States
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 4/23/16
In a broader sense, though, we are all living through an ongoing fiscal nightmare. The budget news at the Federal level is troubling enough, as we discussed in February.

The Pros and Cons of the “Gig Economy”
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 4/15/16
The “gig economy” is terribly difficult to measure. Claims about its size vary widely; the consensus is that employment of this kind remains very modest, but it appears to be growing rapidly.

Should Central Banks Call in the Helicopters?
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 4/9/16
For the past eight years, major central banks used unconventional monetary policies to promote economic growth and lift inflation. But success is incomplete on these fronts, and there is an active debate about whether forward guidance, negative interest rates and quantitative easing (QE) remain potent. It may be time for “helicopter money.”

Driving in the Slow Lane, for Now
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 4/8/16
After a turbulent start, the first quarter ended on a calmer note. There were moments when the U.S. economy appeared to defy expectations, and there were moments when the outlook was not rosy. On net, forward momentum remains in place.

First Quarter Odds and Ends
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 4/2/16
Four months after terrorist attacks struck the streets of Paris, Europe was hit again, at its heart – Brussels. The sophistication of the attacks amid tightened security has once again raised questions around intelligence-sharing across Europe’s borders, and added fuel to the migration debate.

The Collision of Aspiration and Reality in India
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 3/27/16
As China falters somewhat, India has become the world’s new economic darling. Hopes of residents and global investors are lofty, but reality suggests a cautiously optimistic stance.

The Economy and the Election
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 3/19/16
The number one question I have been asked during the first quarter is: what will the American election mean for the economy?

The ECB’s Race Against Time
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 3/14/16
Buffeted first by the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and then by the sovereign debt crisis two years later, the eurozone has struggled to restore prosperity. Real gross domestic product (GDP) has still not recovered to the level recorded eight years ago, and growth has been uneven.

The Resilient Economy
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 3/10/16
A Headwinds from China, market turbulence and soft economic reports cast doubt about the strength of U.S. economic fundamentals as 2016 began. But the most recent data provide evidence to the contrary.

The “Gasoline Dividend” May Not Be That Powerful
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 3/6/16
The price of gas has again burst through a threshold once thought unapproachable. This time, though, the invisible line was at $2 per gallon. But happily, we breached it on the downside.

China Faces Capital Punishment
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore | of Northern Trust, 2/26/16
The Chinese are presently giving a lot of consideration to gaps in a different kind of barrier, one that restricts the flow of money instead of people. Despite a system of controls, capital has left the country in significant amounts, pressuring Chinese markets and the Chinese currency.
Results 351–400 of 557 found.