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Results 1–50
of 407 found.
Snapshots of Market History: The Bear Bottoming Process
by Doug Short,
Note from dshort: Since the middle of the last century, there have been nine bear markets in the S&P 500 using the 20% selloff of the "bear-market" benchmark. There have been two additional corrections that came within a hair's breadth of the -20% qualification. Here are snapshots of those official bears and initial recoveries. Rather than scrolling down, you can click on a chart for an enlarged version and a slide-show of the series.
Happiness Revisited: A Household Income of $75K?
by Doug Short,
Note from dshort: We've updated this commentary in the wake of the Census Bureau's release last month of the 2015 annual household income data from the Current Population Survey.
One of our favorite discussions on APViewpoint, which addressed "The Sad State of Happiness", included an indirect reference to a popular 2010 academic study by psychologist Daniel Kahneman and economist Angus Deaton. Their topic was the correlation between annual household income and day-to-day contentment. They analyzed more than 450,000 total responses to a Gallup weekly survey of households across the 50 states and DC. The survey was conducted in 2009.
The Financial Plight of White Working Class Males
by Doug Short,
With the US presidential election about five weeks away, the popular press has feasted on the campaign events and survey results, with the primary focus on the Trump spectacle. The fundamental question remains: How did The Don succeed in winning the Republican Party nomination in the first place? And how could he remain in contention in the wake of his bizarre campaign rhetoric? A provocative new report from Sentier Research gives us insight into what might be the key factor in the Trump phenomenon: A secular decline in the financial well-being of white working class males and what we can infer as the resulting anger directed at the political powers that be.
Validating the S&P Composite Stock Price Index
by Doug Short,
Visitors to Advisor Perspectives will recognize the S&P Composite Stock Price Index as a regular feature in our long-term charts of market and economic happenings. We're referring to the data series made popular in recent years by Yale Professor Robert Shiller, not to be confused with the S&P Composite 1500, an index that combines the S&P 500, the S&P Mid Cap 400, and the S&P Small Cap 600. Here's a an overlay of the Dow and the S&P Composite from May of 1896, the month the Dow Jones Industrial Average index of 12 stocks was established.
Equity Valuations, Recessions and Stock Market Declines
by Doug Short,
Note: In response to an email, I've updated the data in this article through the March month-end numbers and at the launch of the Q1 2016 earnings season.
Last year I had a fascinating conversation with Neile Wolfe, of Wells Fargo Advisors, LLC. Based on the underlying data in the adjacent chart, Neile made some cogent observations about the historical relationships between equity valuations, recessions and market prices:
Last year I had a fascinating conversation with Neile Wolfe, of Wells Fargo Advisors, LLC. Based on the underlying data in the adjacent chart, Neile made some cogent observations about the historical relationships between equity valuations, recessions and market prices:
Industrial Production: Those Ugly Annual Benchmark Revisions and the Heightened Risk of Recession
by Doug Short,
The big economic news on Friday was the Department of Labor's Employment Report for March. The mainstream press focused on two numbers: the 215K new jobs and the 5% unemployment rate. Over the next few days we'll dig in a bit deeper to look at some of the underlying employment demographics, which in many ways give a greater understanding of employment conditions. But the much more significant economic news on Friday was the Federal Reserve's noon release of the disturbingly negative annual benchmark revisions to Industrial Production.
Median Household Income Growth: Deflating the American Dream
by Doug Short,
What is the single best indicator of the American Dream? Many would point to household income growth. The Census Bureau has now published some selected annual household income data in a new report: "Income and Poverty in the United States: 2014". Last year the median (middle) household income was $53,657 — a 0.13% year-over-year increase that shrinks to -1.48% when adjusted for inflation. Let's put the new release into a larger historical context.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index: "Recoveries Remain Resilient"
ECRI currently features an article suggesting that concern over negative trend growth is no reason to panic. Recession is not imminent as we are not yet in a "window of vulnerability." The article also discusses Spain's recent cyclical upturn and warns that one shouldn't assume that a cyclical upturn also means positive long-term trend growth. The overall message is not to "fret about recession just yet".
ECRI Weekly Leading Index Continues With Little to No Change
ECRI's most recent article suggests that wage inflation does not support the case for a rate increase. "The recent rise in wage inflation, having become an obvious fact, is increasingly being used to support the case for rate hikes – including by Fed Chairman Janet Yellen, who now sees these “tentative signs of stronger wage growth” as a harbinger of inflation."
ECRI Weekly Leading Index: Little to No Change
ECRI's most recent article suggests that wage inflation does not support the case for a rate increase. "The recent rise in wage inflation, having become an obvious fact, is increasingly being used to support the case for rate hikes – including by Fed Chairman Janet Yellen, who now sees these “tentative signs of stronger wage growth” as a harbinger of inflation."
ECRI: "Shifting Patterns in Recessions and Recoveries"
ECRI's most recent article presents slides and notes from ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan talk at the Madrid Fund Forum conference. He discussed the relationship between lower trend growth and recessions. "ECRI believes that minimally we're returning to a period of more frequent recessions, as we saw in much of the twentieth century....Going back to at least the 1970s, growth has been stair-stepping down during each successive expansion."
ECRI: "Trend Real GDP Growth Is Converging to 1% a Year"
ECRI's most recent article offers a compelling analysis of the relationship between GDP and two key factors: productivity and the labor force: "With productivity growth and potential labor force growth both averaging 1/2% a year, trend real GDP growth is converging to 1% a year."
Is the Stock Market Cheap?
Here is a new update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. For the earnings, see the table below created from Standard & Poor's latest earnings spreadsheet.
ECRI: "Fed Rate Hike May Be Postponed Due to Inclement Data"
Friday's release of the publicly available data from the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 133.9, down slightly from 134.6 the previous week. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at 1.5, up from the previous week's 1.2, and off its interim low of -4.7 in mid-January.
ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
Friday's release of the publicly available data from the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 132.6, up slightly from 131.5 the previous week. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at -2.5, up from the previous week's -3.3 and off its interim low of -4.9 in mid-January.
ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
Friday's release of the publicly available data from the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 131.6, up slightly from 131.2 the previous week. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at -3.2, up from the previous week's -3.6 and off its interim low of -4.9 in mid-January.
ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
Today's new release of the publicly available data from the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 131.1, down slightly from 131.6 the previous week. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at -3.7, up from the previous week's -4.0 and off its interim low of -5.0 in mid-January.
ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
Today's new release of the publicly available data from the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 130.6, unchanged from the previous week. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at -4.6, down from the previous week's -4.5 but off the interim low of -5.0 in mid-January.
ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
Today's new release of the publicly available data from the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 130.6, up slightly from 130.4 the previous week. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at -4.5, down from the previous week's -4.2 but off the interim low of -5.0 in mid-January.
Equity Valuations, Recessions and Stock Market Declines
When I initiated the dshort web page in late 2005, one of my routine topics was equity valuations, initially inspired by Nobel laureate Robert Shiller's book, Irrational Exuberance, the second edition of which was published earlier that year. I gradually expanded my focus from his cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE) to include Ed Easterling's Crestmont P/E, Nobel laureate James Tobin's Q Ratio and my own monthly regression analysis of the S&P 500.
ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
Today's new release of the publicly available data from the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 130.0, down from 130.8 the previous week. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at -4.3, down slightly from the previous week's -4.0, but up from the interim low of -5.0 in mid-January.
ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
Today's new release of the publicly available data from the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 130.8, down from 131.6 the previous week. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at -4.0, up from the previous week's -4.3 and the interim -5.0 low in mid-January.
ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
Today's new release of the publicly available data from the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 130.8, unchanged to one decimal place from the previous week. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at -3.9, down from -3.3 the previous week. This is its lowest level since February 2012.
ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
Lakshman Achuthan made a recent appearance (December 24th) on Al Jazeera TV discussing the company's outlook for the US economy in 2015. Despite improvements in GDP and jobs data, Achuthan takes a cautious view. Among other things, he points out that latest year-over-year GDP growth rate of 2.7% (a more intuitive metric than the latest quarterly annualized rate of 5.0%), has happened before since the end of the last recession, only to slide back to lower levels. He identifies US manufacturing as a potentially weak area.
ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
by Doug Short,
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 133.2, up from the previous week's 132.0. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at -2.4, down from -2.9 the previous week. ECRI's latest public statements have focused on Japan. The website now features a November 17th response to the announcement of Japan's Fourth Recession Since 2008.
Is the Stock Market Cheap?
Here is a new update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month, which is 1,937.27. The ratios in parentheses use the monthly close of 2,018.05. For the earnings, see the table below created from Standard & Poor's latest earnings spreadsheet.
Is the Stock Market Cheap?
by Doug Short,
Here is a new update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly averages of daily closes for the past month, which is 1993.23. The ratios in parentheses use the monthly close of 2003.37. For the earnings, see the table below created from Standard & Poor's latest earnings spreadsheet.
ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 134.9, down slightly from the previous week's 135.6. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at 2.0, down slightly from the previous week's 2.1. On Wednesday, September 10th, Lakshman Achuthan appeared on Wall Street Journal Live, where he stated that Japan is on track for another recession. He included comments about what that means for Europe and the United States.
Median Household Incomes by Age Bracket: 1967-2013
Earlier today I updated my commentary on household income distribution to include the Census Bureau's release of the 2013 annual data. My focus was on arithmetic mean (average) household incomes by quintile (and the top 5%) over the 46-year history of this data series. The analysis offered some fascinating insights into U.S. household incomes.
Median Household Income Growth: Deflating the American Dream
by Doug Short,
What is the single best indicator of the American Dream? Many would point to household income growth. The Census Bureau has now published some selected annual household income data in a new report: Income and Poverty in the United States: 2013. Last year the median (middle) household income was $51,939 -- a 1.8% year-over-year increase that shrinks to 0.3% when adjusted for inflation. Let's put the new release into a larger historical context.
ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 134.9, little changed from the previous week's 134.8. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) dropped to 1.8 from the previous week's 2.3. Last Friday, August 29th, ECRI treated the general public to a new commentary on its website focused on the Fed's seeming complacency about inflation becaused of stalled wage growth. ECRI sees a substantially higher inflation risk.
Is the Stock Market Cheap?
Here is a new update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly averages of daily closes for the past month, which is 1,961.53. The ratios in parentheses use the monthly close of 2003.37. For the earnings, see the table below created from Standard & Poor's latest earnings spreadsheet.
ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 134.3, unchanged from the previous week. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) dropped to 2.8 from the previous week's 3.5. On Monday of this week, ECRI broke its silence to the general public with a new commentary on its website focused on housing affordability and home price growth
ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
by Doug Short,
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 134.9, down from the previous week's adjusted 135.3. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) fell to 4.8 from 5.3. Last Friday (May 30th), ECRI posted a brief overview of post-recession GDP forecasts from the Fed's Open Market Committee and the less optimistic series from the Congressional Budget Office.
ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 134.9, down from the previous week's adjusted 135.3. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) fell to 4.8 from 5.3. Last Friday (May 30th), ECRI posted a brief overview of post-recession GDP forecasts from the Fed's Open Market Committee and the less optimistic series from the Congressional Budget Office.
Real Median Household Income Fell 0.42% in April
The Sentier Research monthly median household income data series is now available for April. The nominal median household income was down $84 month-over-month and up only $1,420 year-over-year. Adjusted for inflation, it was down $222% MoM and only $409 YoY. The real numbers equate to a -0.42% MoM decline and a 0.78% YoY increase.
ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 134.9, up from last week?s 133.6 (revised from 133.5). The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) rose to 3.3 from last week?s 3.0. Here are some notable developments since ECRI?s public recession call on September 30, 2011: 1) The S&P 500 is up 61.0% at yesterday?s close, although off its record close on April 2nd. 2) the unemployment rate has dropped to 6.7%, and 3) Q4 GDP was revised upward to 2.6%.
ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 133.6, unchanged last week (which was revised from 133.5). The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) rose to 3.0 from last week?s 2.9.
Here are some notable developments since ECRI?s public recession call on September 30, 2011: 1) The S&P 500 is up 61.9% at yesterday?s close, fractionally off its record close on April 2nd. 2) the unemployment rate has dropped to 6.7%, and 3) Q4 GDP was revised upward to 2.6%.
Results 1–50
of 407 found.
