As you know, economists are normally criticized and accused of being ‘two-handed.’ This is because when we talk, we typically say, “on the one hand, and on the other hand.” Many argue that we are hedging our bets and lack the spine to take a position. While we disagree with that simplistic view of our job, we can understand why we are accused of being ‘two-handed.’
After more than six months of indicating that it lacked conviction regarding the path of inflation, the Federal Reserve (Fed) seems to have gotten a conviction boost so large that it pushed it to lower the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
As a businessman and ex-business owner, the idea of firms ‘hoarding’ workers never made sense. As an economist, the idea of firms hoarding workers never made sense either.
When the Federal Reserve (Fed) cut rates in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, mortgage rates fell below 3% in 2021 and many households refinanced or obtained new loans.
Retail trade sales in the U.S. are reported by distribution channel. For example, gasoline sales are reported through the gasoline stations distribution channel, although those gasoline stations’ sales also include everything else sold at gasoline station convenience stores, i.e., hot dogs, tobacco, sodas, gum, chips, coffee, etc.
We are free trade enthusiasts, in economic terms, even at a time when free trade has been losing some of its aura within the U.S. political system.
To say that inflation data during the first quarter of the year surprised us and the markets is clearly an understatement and by Tuesday of this week, with the higher-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) print for April, markets were clearly on edge as they were also potentially expecting a higher reading for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday.
Markets seem to have been basking in the spring sun as they wait for the approaching summer heat, so to speak.
Markets have been very positive this week on better-than-expected inflation numbers. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) printed a better than expected 0.1% in March with the year-over-year rate declining to 5.0% compared to a 6.0% year-over-year rate reported in February of this year.
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
