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Turkey Gets an Upgrade
The IMF offered a sober assessment of the global economy this week when it released the September 2011 update of its World Economic Outlook. The IMF stated the global economy is in a dangerous new phase, citing two main downside risks: The possibility the crisis in the eurozone will be too much for the regions policymakers to handle, and soft economic activity in the U.S. is due to a weak housing market, deteriorating financial conditions and a political impasse regarding fiscal consolidation. Accordingly, the IMF cut its projections for global growth to 4 percent through 2012.
World Running Low on its
Did you know that Chinas energy demand is set to grow so dramatically over the next 25 years that its consumption is expected to be 68 percent higher than that of the U.S.? That was only one of the findings of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). In its new International Energy Outlook 2011, the EIA reports that throughout the world, energy consumption is expected to rise by 53 percent from 2008 through 2035 driven by robust economic growth and expanding populations in the developing countries.
A Yuan, Euro and Dollar Walk Into a Bank...
Currency markets have been the pawns in central bankers chess games around the world in recent weeks, as each country looks to gain the slightest edge in todays economy. Weeks ago we saw an intervention from the Bank of Japan, which tried to stop the yens downward slide. Last week, the Swiss National Bank moved to improve the Swiss francs stature. Also recently announced was that the Hong Kong dollar will no longer be pegged to the U.S. dollar. Given the important role paper currency plays, weve developed a quiz so you can test how much you know.
Perfect Storm Creates Tidal Wave of Gold Demand
In the East, gold is not only celebrated, acquired, worn or displayed during holidays or special occasions; it is seen as an everyday symbol of wealth. Increases in demand from China and India have driven a 7.5 percent increase in demand for gold jewelry during the first half of the year despite a 25 percent increase in the price, according to a report released this week from GFMS. However, much of Indias potential gold demand remains untapped.
Six Reasons to Sell Economy, Buy Stocks
Money supply is a key lubricant of the economy and financial markets. Historically, if money is growing faster than nominal GDP, the excess money has found its way to other uses such as investment in stocks, commodities and other financial assets. The risk/reward profile for owning stocks appears positively skewed. While bond investors have enjoyed a 30-year bull market, equity investors can now use long-term mean reversion to their advantage by buying those undervalued companies that are flush with cash, reward their shareholders with a dividend payment and have envy worthy balance sheets.
Economic Resilience of Emerging Markets
A boxers stamina is judged by how quickly he rebounds from a blow. Strength of a country, then, could be measured by how quickly the economy can bounce back from a crisis. The Economist provided one measure when it compared countries percentage change in real GDP per person from the fourth quarter of 2007 through the second quarter of 2011.
China Fears Much Ado About Nothing
There are many questions surrounding the global market but the Chinese economy remains headed toward the moon. The country, of course, remains vulnerable to external forces but we believe the economys strong momentum will be enough to carry the country through, should volatile times persist.
Chart of the Week - Can Russia Stay #1?
Siberias western oil fields have been a mainstay of Russias economic growth for decades, but the worlds largest producer of oil is now looking elsewhere in its country to replenish its stagnating supplies. Western Siberias oil fields have proven to be fertile hunting grounds for Russian oil companies, producing nearly 70 percent of the countrys exported oil. But most of W. Siberia's oil fields are considered brownfieldsregions where roughly 75 percent of fields have been exploited. The firm says oil and gas firms must now consider the big picture to maintain growth of their resources.
How to Find Opportunities from Blood, Debt & Fears
For the long-term investor, the risk/reward profile for owning stocks appears positively skewed. Equity investors have suffered through one of the most difficult decadesrivaling even the Great Depressionwhile bond investors have enjoyed a 30-year bull market. Long-term mean reversion is a powerful tool that investors can use to help them attain their long-term goals.
Valuation Gap Makes Gold Miners Attractive But All Miners Arent Created Equal
Goldwatchers were reminded golds volatility works in both directions this week, with prices falling more than $100 an ounce in just one day. We forecasted the selloff last week, explaining a 10 percent correction would be a non-event. Once again the CME Group hiked the exchanges margin requirements for gold investment to shake out overleveraged speculation. This is a positive for long-term investors.
Oceans 2011: Venezuelan Gold
Now might be a good time for Daniel Ocean to start assembling his gang of 11. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez announced last week that he was ordering the countrys ample gold reserves back to Caracas for safe keeping. Not a bad idea given the global geopolitical environment, but with some 211 tons of 400-ounce gold bars to be moved from bank vaults in London, President Chavez has a logistical nightmare on his hands.
Deflation or Inflation? The Answer is Gold
There are tectonic plates pushing against each other in Washington these days, and Im not talking about the 5.8 earthquake felt along the East Coast. Rather, it is a product of the governments rising levels of debt and a printing press pumping out money and weakening the dollar. In an excellent video, James Turk and James Rickards converse about golds role in this monetary issue. They discuss the tension building between natural deflation coming from the depression and inflation coming from policy. Eventually there will be a break, and the outcome is either deflation or hyperinflation.
The Neverending Story of a
Gold continued to make headlines last week, reaching nearly $1,900 an ounce on Friday before resting around the $1,850 level. Golds 15 percent rise to new nominal highs over the past month has rekindled gold bubble talk from many pundits. Long-term gold bulls have been forced to listen to these naysayers since gold reached $500 an ounce. If you would have joined their groupthink then, you wouldve missed golds roughly 270 percent rise since. That said, gold is due for a correction.
Gold's Sun Also Rises in the East
During the second quarter, golds rising value didnt deter Chinese and Indian buyers. In its webcast, the World Gold Council (WGC) said these predominant drivers of gold demand accounted for 52 percent of bars and coins and 55 percent of jewelry demand. Chinas demand grew 25 percent, while India saw an increase of 38 percent. WGC attributes this growth to increasing levels of economic prosperity, high levels of inflation and forthcoming key gold purchasing festivals.
Is Business Choking on Red Tape?
About a year ago, I wrote about The Shocking Cost of Regulation and the unintended consequences new rules can have on our business system without proper cost-benefit analysis being done. A year later, its clear the swarm of red tape is choking companies and impeding growth.
The Silver Lining for Markets and the U.S. Economy
There is a silver lining: Despite all the negative news out there, the global economy will continue to grow. In fact, the U.S. economy has had several positive developments recently. The four-week average for unemployment claims dropped to 402,000 during the week ending August 13. There is still a large chunk of America unable to find a job, but that group has shrunk 13 percent since August 2010 and is about 40 percent of peak 2009 levels.
Buy, Sell or Hold? Relax and Don't Panic
There was more blood in the streets Monday as the world continued to digest S&Ps downgrade of US debt, the two-week market selloff, and the likelihood the US economy could possibly slide back into recession. These concerns, combined with continued political/economic struggles in the eurozone from socialist policies, have created a potent concoction of fear across global markets and sent volatility skyrocketing Monday to its highest level since the May 2010 Flash Crash. While many investors are running for the exits, others have chosen to ride the wave of volatility or buy depressed shares.
Chart of the Week - Which Luxury Brands Do Best in China?
Rising incomes in China are also affecting sales of gold jewelry. Year-over-year sales have outpaced the other five categories of the retail sector. CEBM forecasts wealthier consumers to drive sales of gold and jewelry products up 55-60 percent on a year-over-year basis in 2011. In addition, Chinese citizens have purchased nearly 91 tons of gold bars and coins in 2011, more than double the 2010 total, according to the Financial Times.
Indians Celebrate Holiday with Offerings of Gold
No country in the world has a richer history with gold than India. One of golds strongest cultural bonds is with the holy Hindi month of Shraavan. The Varalakshmi Vratham, the festival of offering prayers to the symbol of prosperity and wealth, is said to be incomplete without a touch of gold. Many thought consumers would be priced out from participating this year, but the World Gold Council (WGC) has teamed up with local jewelers in India to offer discounts and small installment plans to those seeking to include gold in their puja.
Run, Ride or Buy? What Should Investors Do? Dont Sell on Mondays!
With trillions of dollars in debt acting as a ball-and-chain for much of Europe, the U.S. and the rest of the developed world, must detoxify their balance sheets before hitting the ground running. On the other hand, emerging market economies carry low levels of debt and operate like a cash business, making them the final frontier for strong economic growth. A key reason is emerging market governments have the long-term policies in place to facilitate growth of their economies.
Advisor Alert - Placing This Week's Selloff Into Context
The major market indices were lower this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 5.75 percent. The S&P 500 Stock Index decreased 7.19 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 8.13 percent.
Barra Growth outperformed Barra Value as Barra Value finished 7.53 percent lower while Barra Growth decreased 6.88 percent. The Russell 2000 closed the week with a loss of 10.34 percent.
The Hang Seng Composite Index finished lower by 6.80 percent, Taiwan fell 9.15 percent, and the KOSPI declined 8.88 percent.
The 10-year Treasury bond yield closed 24 basis points lower at 2.56 percent.
Gold Bugs Rejoice
Many felt disbelief when they saw gold prices breach $1,675 an ounce in early trading, but you werent dreaming. Gold danced above $1,675 into the wee hours of the night before settling in at $1,663.45 this afternoon. Since pulling back to $1,487 an ounce on July 1, gold has surged nearly 12 percent. Over the past 10 years, golds normal volatility has been about 15 percent, so weve seen nearly a years worth of price movement in just 34 days! Does this mean were due for a correction? Possibly. Gold could easily correct 5-10 percent but I dont think thats what will happen.
The 2011 Gold Season is Just around the Corner
September has traditionally been the beginning of the gift-giving season for gold. This is the time of year when gold jewelers are the busiest. The Muslim holy month of Ramadan begins in August and concludes with generous gift-giving in early September. Then its Diwali, known as the festival of lights in India, Christmas in the U.S., and Chinese New Year. The key to this seasonal strength over the past few years has been demand from China and India.
2011 Halftime Report: Oil Outlook Remains Strong
Todays oil market is much different than what we experienced back in the 1970s. Back then, countries such as China, India and Russia had no global footprint; they were isolationists. Today these countries are building their economies and squeezing the existing supply of the worlds resources, including oil. These factors indicate that growth in global oil demand will likely outpace increases in production capacity and create a tighter market than what the IEA expected back in 2010.
Commodities 2011 Halftime Report
Commodities don?t all perform in the same way. In any given year, a particular commodity will go gangbusters and outperform the group. However, that commodity will typically come back to Earth and underperform the following year or the year after that. This is why active management is important when investing in commodities. Active managers can benefit from rotating from winners to laggards or by investing in the companies which produce, farm or mine commodities most effectively.
Should You Bank on Turkey's Growth?
While much of Europe?s economy remains stuck in the mud, Turkey expanded 11 percent during the first quarter of 2011. In fact, Turkey?s economic growth outpaced China?s this quarter and most of the world?s larger economies last year, leading The Wall Street Journal to declare the country ?Eurasia?s rising tiger.? Despite the acclaim, many investors have yet to warm up to Turkey. We?re not one of them.
Don't Miss Your Chance to Catch a Bull Market
Many people missed the market?s enormous appreciation during the latest equity bull market because they were late to the game or chose to sit on the sidelines. The sideline is a crowded place these days as investors have been reluctant to fully embrace equities. Household savings for the past 12 months totaled $711 billion, the highest level ever recorded in dollar terms. You can see from the chart that?s roughly double the amount of savings recorded following the Tech Bubble. In fact, household debt-to-savings ratios are currently at levels so low, they?ve not been seen since the mid-1990s.
India's Demand for Iron Ore Made of Steel
Much has been made of China?s insatiable appetite for the world?s natural resources but demand growth from another Asian giant is changing the dynamics of the global steel market. Indian demand for steel grew 10 percent last year, helping push global demand to a record 1.4 billion tons in 2010. This rise has been driven by the Indian government?s focus on building out the nation?s infrastructure. According to an Urban Land Institute and Ernst & Young publication, ?Infrastructure 2011,? initiatives in India have been extensive.
China Opens World's Longest Cross-Sea Bridge
When the new Qingdao Jiaozhou Bay Bridge opened to traffic this week in China, it made the Guinness World Records for the longest cross-sea bridge in the world. The 26.4-mile long and 110-foot wide bridge stretches across the bay, linking the Huangdao district to the city of Qingdao and Hongdao Island. China spent 17 years planning and designing the engineering marvel to be able to withstand the bay?s high salt content and icy winters. Yet, it only took four years to build, with at least 10,000 workers on the construction team.
Emerging Markets Building Highways to Wealth
Last summer, IBM surveyed more than 8,000 motorists in 20 cities across 6 continents to determine the emotional and economic toll of commuting. They measured the amount of time it took to commute and time stuck in traffic along with whether there was an agreement of the following: the price of gas is already too high, traffic has gotten worse, and driving causes stress and anger. According to IBM, 13 cities other than LA cause more commuter angst. The top three hail from three different countries: Beijing and Mexico City tie as the world?s worst, with Johannesburg coming in third.
Playing Cat and Mouse with Global Oil
Oil markets took another dose of global geopolitics this week when the International Energy Agency (IEA) unexpectedly announced that it would be releasing 60 million barrels of oil from strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) around the globe. Thursday?s surprise announcement gave oil prices a 4.5 percent hair cut and oil prices closed Friday at $91.25, down 20 percent from their April 29 peak.
The Malleable Market for Global Aluminum
Last week?s Investor Alert highlighted a Macquarie Research chart showing a recent notable upswing in aluminum production around the world. Following a huge dip in output in China and worldwide throughout 2009, China once again surpassed the rest of the world in producing the most aluminum. China?s massive production makes sense considering the country consumes the most aluminum. According to Jeremy Grantham of GMO, China uses 40 percent of the world?s aluminum as it rapidly develops its railway transportation, increasingly purchases automobiles and demands more energy.
What?s Driving Platinum?
Following a substantial 90 percent increase since the financial crisis, platinum prices have been sluggish. During the first six months of 2011, the metal gained only a few basis points. Platinum has significantly lagged silver (up 15.72 percent) and gold (up 7.72 percent), but has outpaced palladium, its closest relative. In recent days, the market has discounted the metal because of weaker car sales in the U.S. According to the WSJ, Japan?s earthquake shut down car production, and higher vehicle prices and continued bad news about the U.S. economy prevented consumers from purchasing cars.
Will Gold Equity Investors Strike Gold?
While the party continues for gold bullion prices, stocks of gold companies have been a no-show. The NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index (HUI) has fallen more than 13 percent year-to-date and the Philadelphia Gold & Silver Index (XAU) has toppled more than 16 percent. Companies such as High River Gold Mines, Jaguar Mining and NovaGold Resources are off 45 percent from 2007-2008 highs. This has been exacerbated in recent weeks making it a hot topic of discussion among investors. This chart shows gold equities of all market capitalization sizes were holding up quite well until late April.
Is Gold About to Have Its Status Upgraded?
Central banks have been on a gold buying spree. Mexico, Russia and Thailand, were adding to their gold reserves. And in 2010, central banks became a net buyer of gold for the first time in 21 years. Central bank gold buying could soon be matched with other global banks if gold?s quality as an asset gets upgraded to Tier 1 status by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. The BCBS is an international banking supervisory committee that provides a forum for determining global standards to ensure that banks all around the world have adequate capital.
China is World's Largest Energy Consumer
World consumption of energy has increased 5.6 percent in 2010, according to BP?s Statistical Review of World Energy. This is the largest increase since 1973, which happened to be a memorable year in energy history. At the time, the U.S. was by far the largest consumer of energy, devouring 1,812 million tons of oil equivalent (mtoe)?more than 30 percent of the world?s total?as the country faced an energy crisis, oil embargo and record high oil prices. In 2010, another pivotal moment occurred in energy history: The country consuming most of the world?s energy was no longer the U.S., but China.
Is Peru's Humala Jekyll or Hyde for Mining?
The Peruvian stock market has had a very strong reaction to the recent outcome of the country?s presidential election. With Keiko Fujimori?s surprise loss to Ollanta Humala, many Peruvian stocks saw share prices sink before quickly recovering the following day. Grana y Montero, a large engineering company in Lima, reached a three-month high shortly before the election, and then plummeted 20 percent just after. We digest the outcome and discuss the implications a shift in Peru?s government policies would have on the country?s economy and largest industries.
Active Hurricane Season May Threaten Offshore Oil
It?s hurricane season in the Atlantic, and another year of above-normal activity is expected. If the prediction comes to fruition, the potential disruption of offshore oil production may add to already turbulent oil prices. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says due to a continuing high activity conditions, warmer water, and La Nia?s wind sheers, this season may produce 12 to 18 named storms, six to 10 of which could become hurricanes. Two or three of these hurricanes may be major. Seasonal averages are 11 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major.
Natural Resources Q&A with the Global Resources Fund Team
This week Frank Holmes and the co-managers of the U.S. Global Investors Global Resources Fund (PSPFX), Evan Smith and Brian Hicks, participated in a special webcast for the Peak Advisor Alliance. Here are some candid portions of the Q&A: Q. How are interest rates currently affecting commodity prices? A. The magic number for real interest rates is 2 percent. That?s when you can earn more than 2 percent on a U.S. Treasury bill after discounting for inflation. Our research has shown that commodities tend to perform well when rates fall below 2 percent.
Global Infrastructure a $6 Trillion Opportunity
Each week, more than one million people are either born in or migrate to cities. Much of this rapid urbanization comes from the emerging world, putting tremendous pressure on that country?s feeble infrastructure. Merrill Lynch estimates that $6 trillion will need to be spent by selected emerging market countries over the next three years to meet the basic needs of these citizens. Water, transportation and energy investments will consume the bulk of these funds, 82 percent of total projected spending. Nearly every emerging market country Merrill researched will make an investment in all three.
Railway Revolution Builds China's Consumer Culture
China is building the world?s largest network of high speed rails. Since opening the first high speed line between Beijing and Tianjin in 2008, the country has laid down more than 4,600 miles of new tracks. This is three times more than Japan, where the bullet train was invented. Once completed near the end of this decade, the high speed rail system will connect more than 250 Chinese cities, span 18,641 miles and reach roughly 700 million people. Currently, the high speed rail network connects about one-third of China?s cities. That figure is set to nearly double over the next two years.
Why Asia is the Epicenter of Oil Demand Growth
A few weeks back we highlighted the strong link between GDP growth and oil consumption by showing you how oil consumption per capita has risen in selected countries as per capita incomes rise. Specifically, we noted the potential for China?s oil consumption?already the second-largest oil consumer in the world?to catch up on a per capita basis with other Asian countries such as Taiwan and South Korea. That?s where we think China?s oil consumption is headed, but this shows how strong oil consumption per capita growth has been over the past 50 years.
Asian Tiger Sinks Teeth Into Gold
The World Gold Council (WGC) released its quarterly ?Gold Demand Trends? report this week and, as always, it was filled with fascinating data on the strength of the global gold market. Gold demand grew 11 percent to 981.3 tons during the first quarter of 2011, worth $43.7 billion at quarter-end?s price levels. The increase was driven by a significant rise in demand for gold as an investment, up 26 percent from a year ago, as emerging markets look to protect their assets from rising inflation. Demand for gold bars and coins was up 62 percent and 42 percent, respectively.
The Dollar and Oil Debate on CNBC Europe
This week in London, I joined CNBC Europe?s Commodities Corner to discuss an earlier post regarding my Three Reasons to Believe in $100 Oil. Of the three reasons I gave, most striking to this group was my belief that higher oil prices will continue because of a weakness in the dollar. What I explained during the discussion was that a falling dollar causes short-term volatility. As the demand for a particular commodity increases and the dollar weakens, or vice versa, investors need to deal with an exaggerated movement in the price. However, I stressed the short-term nature of these events.
Chart of the Week: Emerging Europe's Middle Class
Middle-class, affluent, bourgeois - they describe a group of people who enjoy a comfortable life, have access to healthcare and, have discretionary income. And across developing nations, there is a growing group that are just settling in to this lifestyle. A few weeks ago we discussed how economic power is gradually shifting eastward and highlighted a McKinsey Global Institute report that showed China, Latin America and South Asia are projected to account for most of the middle class children by 2025. Those regions aren?t the only ones. A surging middle class exists in Eastern Europe as well.
Policy Reforms Pave Way for Indonesia
Known as the world?s largest archipelago, Indonesia is made of 17,000 islands?eight major ones?between the Indian and Pacific Oceans with the most volcanoes in the world. Almost half of the country?s population lives in an urban environment. Jakarta, the capital and largest city, is home to more than 9 million people. Literacy in Indonesia is high: 90 percent of the population aged 15 and over can read and write. Yet this highly literate country lags nearby southeastern Asian countries when it comes to infrastructure, according to a recent report by Morgan Stanley.
Visiting a West African Gold Mine
This week I?m back on the continent of Africa. Along with 20 analysts from investment firms around the world, I spent a total of 17 hours traveling to Tasiast, Mauritania, kicking the tires and checking out Kinross Gold?s open pit operations there. Kinross is among the top 10 gold mining production companies in the world. According to the CPM Gold Yearbook 2011, the company produced 2.2 million troy ounces of gold in 2009, nearly 3 percent of the world?s total.
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