Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.
Industrial production rose more than expected in June, increasing 0.3% from May. This was more than the expected 0.1% monthly growth. Compared to one year ago, industrial production is up 0.7%.
Bitcoin's closing price surged to a new record high this week, jumping nearly 10% to $120,000. BTC is up ~25% year to date.
Wholesale inflation cooled to its lowest level in nine months in June. The producer price index for final demand was flat month-over-month after rising 0.3% in May. This was lower than the expected 0.2% growth.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) release for June puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 2.67%. The latest reading keeps inflation below the 3.73% average since the end of the Second World War for a 25th straight month. Additionally, for a 5th consecutive month, inflation sits below the 10-year moving average which is at 3.01%.
Gas prices were practically unchanged this week, remaining near their lowest level in a month. As of July 14th, the price of regular gas was unchanged while the price of premium gas was down 1 cent from the previous week.
This series has been updated to include the June release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $52,327, down 6.5% from over 50 years ago.
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.
Manufacturing activity expanded for the first time in five months in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing July survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions rose 21.5 points to 5.5. The latest reading was better than the forecast of -8.3.
Inflation heated up for a second straight month in June. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index was at 2.7% year-over-year, up from 2.4% in May and higher than the expected 2.6% growth.
Eight of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through July 14, 2025.
Now that we're more than halfway through 2025, let's take a look at the top 10 most-read charts so far for the year.
The S&P 500 retreated on Friday from its record high set the previous day.
The yield on the 10-year note ended July 11, 2025 at 4.43%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.90% and the 30-year note ended at 4.96%.
The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We've created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present.
Today, one in three of the 65-69 cohort, one in five of the 70-74 cohort, and one in ten of the 75+ cohort are in the labor force.
In the week ending July 5th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 227,000. This represents a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was lower than the 236,000 forecast.
The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the civilian labor force (people aged 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the civilian non-institutional population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution). As of June, the labor force participation rate is at 62.3%, down from 62.4% the previous month.
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for June. The unemployment rate unexpectedly inch lower to 4.1%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 147,000.
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index held steady in June, inching down 0.2 points to 98.6.
June's employment report showed that 82.8% of total employed workers were full-time (35+ hours) and 17.2% of total employed workers were part-time (<35 hours).
Multiple jobholders accounted for 5.3% of civilian employment in June.
What does the ratio of unemployment claims to the civilian labor force tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?
Last week, the U.S. labor market took center stage, delivering conflicting signals. The S&P 500 reached many record highs during the shortened trading week.
The moving average for the per-capita light vehicle sales series peaked in August 1978. Almost 50 years later, it is down nearly 37% from that peak.
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In June, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 147,000 while the unemployment rate unexpectedly inched lower to 4.1%.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its June Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 50.8. This was consistent with the forecast and moves the index back into expansion territory after one month of contraction.
The June U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 52.9, above the 52.8 forecast. The reading marks the 29th consecutive month of expansion but was a slight slow down from May's 53.7 reading.
The U.S. trade deficit expanded nearly 19% to -$71.5B, as exports declined more than imports declined.
The latest employment report showed that 147,000 jobs were added in June, up from 144,000 in May and higher than the expected 111,000 addition. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate unexpectedly inched lower to 4.1%.
Inflation remains a hot topic, directly impacting everything from your grocery bill to interest rates. As of May 2025, two key inflation gauges — the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — show that prices are still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with the core PCE at 2.7% and core CPI at 2.8%.
This chart series features an overlay of four major secular bear markets: the Crash of 1929, the Oil Embargo of 1973, the Tech Bubble, and the Financial Crisis. The numbers are through the June 30, 2025 close.
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the June 2025 close.
The S&P 500 real monthly averages of daily closes reached a new all-time high in December 2024 but has retreated from it over the past few months. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical bull and bear market trends in market performance.
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation?
With the Q1 GDP third estimate and the June close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 197.6%, down slightly from the previous quarter.
The ADP employment report revealed that 33,000 nonfarm private jobs were unexpectedly lost in June, down from the 29,000 addition in May. This is the first monthly reduction since March 2023 when there was a decline of 53,000 jobs. The latest reading was lower than the expected 99,000 addition.
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. This analysis focuses on the P/E10 ratio, key indicator of market valuation, and its correlation with inflation and the 10-year Treasury yield.
Based on the June S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E of 40.0 is 163% above its arithmetic mean, 187% above its geometric mean, and is in the 99th percentile of this 14-plus-decade series.
The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. The latest Q-ratio is at 1.83, down from 1.91 in May.
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 27.2 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 36.1.
At the end of June, the inflation-adjusted S&P Composite Index was 173% above its long-term trend, up from 163% in May. This is the largest variance in four months.
Job openings unexpectedly jumped to a six-month high in May, reaching 7.769 million vacancies, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). This marks the second straight monthly increase and was higher than the expected 7.320 million openings. Meanwhile, hires and layoffs declined, and quits increased.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 49.0 in June, indicating contraction in U.S. manufacturing for a fourth straight month. The latest reading was above the forecast of 48.8.
U.S. manufacturing expanded for the sixth consecutive month in June, with the S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI reaching a three-year high of 52.9. This was higher than the forecast of 52.0. However, tariffs continued to affect the sector, leading to increased inventory buildup and a sharp acceleration in inflation.
The 10-year Treasury yield has experienced dramatic fluctuations, ranging from a peak of 15.68% in October 1981, during the height of the Volcker era, to a historic low of 0.55% in August 2020, amidst the economic uncertainty of the pandemic. At the end of June 2025, the weekly average stood at 4.30%.
Valid until the market close on July 31, 2025
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
What are consumers thinking about the economy? Their collective mood offers crucial clues for businesses, investors, and policymakers alike. Two prominent monthly surveys, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), aim to capture this vital pulse. In June, these gauges sent mixed signals: the MCSI rose for the first time in six months, reaching 60.7, while the CCI retreated to 93.0, erasing nearly half of its prior gains.
The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for June. The general business activity index rose for a second straight month but remained in negative territory at -12.7. This marks the fifth straight month of worsening business conditions.
