The S&P 500 finished the week in the red despite midweek gains, posting a 0.2% loss from last Friday. The index now sits 1.52% below its record close on January 23, 2025 and is up 2.68% year to date.
The yield on the 10-year note ended February 7, 2025 at 4.49%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 4.29% and the 30-year note ended at 4.69%.
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In January, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 143,000, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.0%.
Consumer sentiment declined for the second consecutive month, reaching its lowest level since July, according to the preliminary February report for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The index fell by 3.3 points (-4.6%), dropping to 67.8 from January's final reading of 71.1, and is down 11.8% from a year ago. The latest reading also came in below the forecasted 71.9.
The latest employment report showed that 143,000 jobs were added in January, falling short of the expected 169,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate edged down to 4.0%.
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the January 2025 close.
The S&P 500 real monthly averages of daily closes reached a new all-time high in December 2024 but fell slightly in January. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical bull and bear market trends in market performance.
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $16,444 for an annualized real return of 9.99%.
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. On August 4th, 2020, the 10-year Treasury yield hit its all-time low of 0.52%. As of January 31st, it was 4.54%.
With the Q4 GDP advance estimate and the January close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 205.1%, down slightly from the previous quarter.
In the week ending February 1st, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 219,000. This represents an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was higher than the 214,000 forecast.
The Ivy Portfolio is based on the asset allocation strategy used by endowment funds from Harvard and Yale. It is an equally weighted portfolio constructed with 5 ETFs that feature a mix of different asset classes. By allocating across different asset classes, diversification is achieved, and risk is reduced.
The Census Bureau released its latest quarterly report for Q4 2024 showing the latest homeownership rate is at 65.7%, up from Q3 but practically unchanged from a year ago.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its January Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 52.8—below the forecast of 54.2. Despite the miss, the reading marks the seventh consecutive month of expansion.
The January U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 52.9, slightly above the 52.8 forecast. The reading marks the 24th consecutive month of expansion but is the weakest since April.
Bitcoin's closing price dropped below $100,000 this week for the first time in over two weeks. BTC is now up ~4% year to date. Here are the latest charts on three of the largest cryptocurrencies by market share through 2/4/25.
The ADP employment report revealed that 183,000 nonfarm private jobs were added in January, higher than the expected 148,000 addition.
Gas prices inched down this week. As of February 3rd, the price of regular and premium gas were each down 1 cent from the previous week. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $73.16, unchanged from last week.
Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.
Based on the January S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E of 41.3 is 173% above its arithmetic mean, 198% above its geometric mean, and is at the 100th percentile of this 14-plus-decade series.
The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. The latest Q-ratio is at 1.84, up from 1.76 in December.
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 28.1 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 37.3.
At the end of January, the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index was 179% above its long-term trend, down from a record high of 186% in December.
The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report showed that job openings fell more than expected in December, while hiring and quits edged higher. Vacancies declined to 7.600 million, down from November's upwardly revised 8.156 million. The December figure came in below the expected 8.010 million and marked the second-lowest level of job openings since January 2021.
The moving average for vehicle sales per capita series peaked in August 1978. Fast forward more than 45 years, it is now down 36.9% from that peak.
Six of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through February 3, 2025. Germany's DAXK is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 7.01%. France's CAC 40 is in second with a year to date gain of 6.24% while England's FTSE 100 is in third with a year to date gain of 3.92%.
The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for December showed that core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 2.8%. The December core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 3.2%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.
As of January 31, 2025, the 10-year note was 406 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52% reached on August 4, 2020.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 50.9 in January, pushing the index into expansion territory for the first time since October 2022. The latest reading was better than the forecast of 49.3.
The manufacturing sector started the new year with renewed expansion, as the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ rose to 51.2 in January from 49.4 in December.
Valid until the market close on February 28, 2025.
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business Barometer) edged up in January but remains historically low. The index rose to 39.5 from 36.9 in December, marking its first increase in four months. However, it fell short of the 40.3 forecast and remained in contraction territory for the 14th consecutive month.
The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report showed inflation remained elevated at the end of 2024. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index, rose 2.6% year-over-year in December and 0.3% from November, aligning with expectations.
With the release of December's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.32% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.06% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 4.22% nominal and 1.63% real.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in December and is up 4.6% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.2% month-over-month and up 2.0% year-over-year.
The advance estimate for Q4 GDP came in at 2.25%, a deceleration from 3.07% for the Q3 final estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 1.66%, a slowdown from 2.47% for the Q3 headline number.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q4 GDP advance estimate, three of the four components made positive contributions.
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR)unexpectedly fell 5.5% in December to 74.2, the first monthly decline since July. Pending home sales were expected to be unchanged from the previous month. The index is down 5.0% from one year ago.
The U.S. economy grew at a slower pace than expected in the fourth quarter of 2024. Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.3% in Q4 2024, according to the advance estimate. The latest estimate is below the forecasted 2.7% growth and is slower than the Q3 final estimate of 3.1%.
The Federal Reserve concluded its first meeting of 2025 by keeping the federal funds rate (FFR) at 4.25-4.50%, marking the first time in four meetings that the Fed has not cut interest rates.
Consumer attitudes are measured by two monthly surveys: the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). In January, the MCSI fell for the first time in six months to 71.1. Meanwhile, the CCI dropped for a second straight month to 104.1.
Fifth district manufacturing activity remained soft in January, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index rose to -4 this month from -10 in December. This month's reading was better than the forecast of -13 and is the highest reading since May.
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® fell further in January, dropping for a second straight month. The index decreased to 104.1 this month from December's upwardly revised 109.5. This month's reading was lower than the 105.7 forecast.
Home prices continued to trend upwards in November as the benchmark national index rose for the 22nd consecutive month to a new all-time high. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.4% increase MoM, and a 3.8% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to 0.2% and YoY fell to -1.1%.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) rose to 433.4 in November, reaching a new all-time high. U.S. house prices were up 0.3 from the previous month and are up 4.2% from one year ago. After adjusting for inflation, the real index was flat month-over-month and up 2.6% year-over-year.
New orders for manufactured durable goods rose to $276.06B in December, the lowest level since June. This represents a 2.2% decrease from the previous month and a 3.9% decline from one year ago. The latest reading was worse than the expected 0.3% growth.
The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of January 17, the index was at 21.934, up 0.234 from the previous week, with 4 of the 6 components in expansion territory.
The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for January. The latest general business activity index came in at 14.1, the highest level for the index since October 2021. This marks the second consecutive month in expansion territory following 31 straight months of contraction.
The December release for new home sales from the Census Bureau came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 698,000 units, beating the 669,000 forecast. New home sales are up 3.6% from a revised rate of 674,000 in November and are up 6.7% from one year ago.
