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Results 651–700
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Technically Speaking: Time To Sell Oil/Energy?
Over the last several weeks, in both the daily blog and weekly newsletter, I have been laying out the technical case for a breakout above the downtrend. As I stated, while such a breakout would demand a subsequent increase in equity risk in portfolios, I didn’t like it.
The Great American Economic Growth Myth
Since the end of the financial crisis, economists, analysts, and the Federal Reserve have continued to predict a return to higher levels of economic growth. As I showed in my discussion of the Fed’s forecasts, these predictions have continued to fall short of reality.
Technically Speaking: Bull Versus Bear Case
As the trumpets sound to signal the start of earnings season, the battle between fundamentals and “hope” begins. Despite weakening earnings, which on an as reported basis are far worse than the rather manipulated “operating” levels currently suggest, the bulls have remained steadfast in their belief that prices are on a one-way trip higher.
Is Trump’s “Recession Warning” Really All Wrong?
Over the weekend, Donald Trump, in an interview with the Washington Post, stated that economic conditions are so perilous that the country is headed for a “very massive recession” and that “it’s a terrible time right now” to invest in the stock market.
3 Things: Fed Levitation, Employment, Savings Rate
What is going on at the Federal Reserve? On Tuesday, Janet Yellen comes out and announces that despite inflation being on the rise and employment below 5%, she is not going to raise the Fed Funds rate 4-times this year, nor even two times this year, but rather most likely none. Of course, this “one and done” scenario is what I suggested back in December following the first rate hike given the ongoing deterioration in the underlying economic backdrop.
7-Deadly Investing Sins
If you were raised in a religious household, or were sent to a Catholic school, you have heard of the seven deadly sins. These transgressions — wrath, greed, sloth, pride, lust, envy, and gluttony — are human tendencies that, if not overcome, can lead to other sins and a path straight to the netherworld. In the investing world, these same seven deadly sins apply. These “behaviors,” just like in life, lead to poor investing outcomes. Therefore, to be a better investor, we must recognize these “moral transgressions” and learn how to overcome them.
Common Mistakes Most Investors Make
Individuals are consistently promised that investing in the financial markets is the only way to financial success. After all, it’s so easy. Financial pundits across the country state the one simply buys a basket of mutual funds and they will make 8, 10 or 12% a year.
Technically Speaking: Psychology Of Loss
In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the formation of a very important “head and shoulders” topping pattern in the market.
I know…I know. As soon as I wrote that I could almost hear the cries of the “perma-bull” crowd exclaiming “how many times have we heard that before.”
They would be right. The problem with the majority of technical analysis, in my opinion, is that time frames are too short for most investors. When looking at technical price patterns using daily data, there have been numerous occasions where analysts have spotted “Head and Shoulder” patterns,
Why You Should Question “Buy And Hold” Advice
I recently received an email from an individual that contained the following bit of portfolio advice from a major financial institution:
“Despite the tumble to begin this year, investors should not panic. Over the long-term course of the markets, investors who have remained patient have been rewarded. Since 1900, the average return to investors has been almost 10% annually…our advice is to remain invested, avoid making drastic movements in your portfolio, and ignore the volatility.”
7-Investment Lessons From Mom
When I was growing up my mother had a saying, or an answer, for just about everything…as do most mothers. Every answer to the question “Why?” was immediately met with the most intellectual of answers; “…because I said so”. Seriously, my mother was a resource of knowledge that has served me well over the years and it wasn’t until late in life that I realized that she had taught me the basic principles to staying safe in the world of financial investments.
5 Investing Myths That Will Hurt You
In the summer of 1885 William R. Travers, prominent NYC businessman and builder of Saratoga Race Track, was vacationing in Newport, Rhode Island. He pointed out a long line of beautiful yachts tied up in the harbor. When he was informed that they all belonged to Wall Street brokers he simply asked, “Where are their clients’ yachts?”.
3 Charts The Fed Should Consider
This week, the Fed will meet to decide the “fate of the universe,” as they are highly anticipated to announce the first rate hike in a decade. This is a momentous occasion as it marks the end of the “ultra-accommodative” monetary policy that has been the primary driver behind asset prices since the end of the financial crisis.
The Inherent Problem Of Eternal Bullishness
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
This past weekend, Akin Oyedele penned an article via Business Insider entitled "I went to a seminar with one of the world's largest banks and almost everything said there was really bearish." Akin seems genuinely shocked the data suggests economic growth may not be on the cusp of surging and stocks might fail to deliver double-digit returns.
However, since I was long ago excised by the media for allowing the "data to speak," let me clarify, for both you and Akin, why HSBC is likely correct in their analysis.
4 Warnings And Why You Should Pay Attention
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
When I was growing up my father, probably much like yours, had pearls of wisdom that he would drop along the way. It wasn't until much later in life that I learned that such knowledge did not come from books, but through experience.
Technically Speaking: The Real Correction Is Still Coming
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
In last week's update, I discussed the short-term oversold condition that existed at that time. To wit:
"As you will notice, the reflexive rally, and subsequent failure, have tracked the original predictions very closely up to the point. With the market once again very oversold on a short-term basis, it is likely that the markets could manage a weak rally attempt over the next few days."
The 80/20 Rule Is Crushing The Economy
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
In business, the 80/20 rule states that 80% of your business will come from 20% of your customers. In an economy that is more than 2/3rds driven by consumption, such an imbalance of the "have" and "have not's" impedes real economic growth.
Technically Speaking: DeJa Vu All Over Again
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
In yesterday's missive "It All Comes Down To This," I discussed the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and the expectation that the Fed once again delays hiking rates due to global economic and market weakness.
With markets oversold on a short-term basis combined with a spike in volatility and bearish sentiment, a "punt" by the FOMC will likely spark a short-term rally in the market. Such an outcome would NOT be surprising by any means since the market has rallied the week of an FOMC "no hike" meeting since 2013.
Technically Speaking: A Sucker's Rally?
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
In last week's technical review "The Mark Of A Bear," I stated:
"The Bulls have remained firmly in charge of the markets as the reach for returns exceeded the grasp of the underlying risk. It now seems that has changed. For the first time since 2007, as we see initial markings of a potential bear market cycle."
The problem in stating that we MAY be seeing the initial markings of a potential bear market cycle is that individuals assume this means the markets will crash immediately. When such an outcome does not occur, the analysis is presumed wrong.
Why This Time Could Be Different
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
In yesterday's post, I discussed the current correction within the context of previous "bull market" corrections. Specifically, the corrections in 1987, 1998, 2010 and 2011.
However, today, I want to look at the current correction in the context of previous starts to "bear markets" and subsequent recessions.
All Bubbles Are Different
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
If stock market bubbles are driven by speculation, greed, and emotional biases – the valuations and fundamentals are simply a reflection of those emotions.
In other words, bubbles can exist even at times when valuations and fundamentals might argue otherwise.
3 Things: Freight, Deflation, No Hike
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
We often look at broad measures of the economy to determine its current state. However, we can often receive clues about where the economy may be headed by looking at data that feeds into the broader measures. Exports, imports, wage growth, commodity prices, etc. all have very important ties to the health of the consumer which is critical to an economy that is nearly 70% driven by their consumption.
When Will We Ever Learn?
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
Life is full of irony. When I was in school, I hated history. It was boring. It was pointless. How was reading about a bunch of dead people ever going to be useful in life? Today, I consume everything I can find on history. Particularly, financial history. Ironic.
Who's Right - Commodities Or Fed?
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
I have been suggesting for quite some time that the Federal Reserve is stuck in a "liquidity trap" which makes it very difficult for monetary policy to be effective. More importantly, beginning in January of this year, I have suggested that the Fed is being forced to choose between the "lesser of two evils."
Predicting The Future Is Difficult
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
Predictions of the future are indeed very difficult, and yet individuals are challenged every day with doing precisely that. For traders, it is what the market, or a particular investment, will do in the next few minutes to days. For longer-term investors, those predictions move out to months or years.
"Debt Gone Wild" - Debt Funded Stock Buybacks Soar
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
I penned an article recently discussing the many measures that corporations have used in recent years to "beat" Wall Street estimates. Of course, the beating of Wall Street estimates, so adamantly adored by mainstream media, always ignores the fact that estimates are continually reduced so that companies to "beat" them. This is the equivalent of moving the "target to the arrow."
The Earnings Season "Scandal"
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
Just like the hit series "Scandal" in which a political "fixer" delves into the manipulation, deceit and obfuscation that prevails in the dark corners of Washington, D.C., so to has Wall Street's earnings. From time to time, I analyze the previous quarters earnings for the S&P 500 to reveal the "quality" of earnings rather than the "quantity" as focused on by Wall Street. One of the most interesting data points continues to the be the extremely low level of "top line" revenue growth as compared to an explosion of the bottom line earnings per share.
Recession Check: Updating The Indicators
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
In December of 2007, I wrote in my weekly newsletter that we were "...either in, or about to be in, the worst recession since the 'Great Depression.'"
At that time, the warning rang hollow as GDP growth was positive, and the markets were still marching higher as the calendar turned to 2008. It was a year later, in December of 2008, that the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), stated that the recession did, in fact, begin in December of 2007.
OMG: Putting Jump In Interest Rates Into Perspective
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
During my daily radio broadcast yesterday, I received a rather "panicked" call regarding the "dramatic plunge" in his bond funds due to the recent jump in interest rates. Of course, he is not alone. Over the last few weeks the media has done its normal headline-grabbing spin by dragging out every bond "bear" they can find to discuss why this time, unlike like the last 30 times, is definitely the end of the "great bond bull market."
The Dangerfield Recovery Or A Skousen Reality
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
During my morning reading I ran across this article by my friend Cullen Roche, via Pragmatic Capitalist, entitled "The Economic Recovery That Can't Get Any Respect," or more commonly known as the "Dangerfield Recovery."
The Mistake Eveyone Is Making About Fed Rate Hikes
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
With the Federal Reserve now indicating that they are "really serious" about raising interest rates, there have come numerous articles and analysis discussing the impact on asset prices. The general thesis is based on averages of historical tendencies as discussed recently by David Rosenberg in his daily commentary.
The Real Financial Crisis That Is Looming
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
There is a financial crisis on the horizon. It is a crisis that all the Central Bank interventions in the world cannot cure. It is a financial crisis that will continue to change the economic landscape of America for decades to come.
BofA Is Confusing Liquidity Fueled And Secular Bull Markets
by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live,
Over the past couple of years, there has been a growing chorus of individuals claiming that the financial markets have finally shaken the shackles of the secular bear market that began at the turn of the century. This, of course, suggests that the markets have now begun the next long-term secular bull market.
Results 651–700
of 767 found.
