Markets have had a wild ride these past couple of weeks, alongside chaotic tariff-related news, with volatility (and its policy triggers) most elevated in the bond market.
It was a wild week on Wall Street after President Donald Trump announced a broad new tariff policy that went beyond what most analysts had anticipated, spurring a plunge in both stock and bond markets.
Amid a market correction and heightened policy, inflation and growth concerns, valuations are back in the spotlight.
Recession fears have risen sharply of late as economic soft data have rolled over, upping the risk that hard data start to catch down.
Unpredictable U.S. tariff policy has heightened concerns about a potential U.S. economic recession.
Heightened economic uncertainty—propelled mainly by trade policy—has unearthed weakness in the equity market, with most pain felt under the market's surface.
Growth and value are often thought of simplistically, but subsurface details in growth- and value-labeled indexes challenge pre-conceived notions of the factors.
Stocks bounced back after tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada were delayed, but tariff issues are not yet solved and still hold the potential to drive market volatility.
Some soft data metrics have started to rebound sharply and catch back up to relatively resilient hard data, but it's too soon to say whether the gap is definitively closing.
Stocks are coming off another banner year, but strength has bred a frothy sentiment environment, which continues to loom as a risk for likely coming volatility.
The U.S. economy and stock market are entering 2025 from a position of strength, but risks of volatility—especially pertaining to policy—are much higher compared to last year.
Some post-election stock market excitement has receded, but the story of strong breadth—which predated the election—has not changed and continues to support the market for now.
The period from the 1960s to the 1990s defined by record-setting inflation and big swings in GDP bears a striking resemblance to the current environment.
Declining inflation has been a theme for the economy since mid-2022, but we still believe the road may have some curves.
The Fed cut rates by 0.25%, with limited changes to the statement, while Powell's blunt "no" response about any coming political pressure to resign was headline grabbing.
Earnings season is shaping up to be relatively strong so far, but the market will likely continue to shift focus to an increasingly murky sales picture.
This unique bull market is still young relative to history and, for now, supported by relatively healthy breadth and broadening participation.
Historically, staying invested has been, in our view, an effective strategy and one to consider when it comes to election years and beyond.
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Investors should be careful what they wish for in hoping for an aggressive Fed rate cutting cycle, given stocks tend to do better when cuts are slow and steady.
It's been 38 years since I began my career on Wall Street and the lessons I learned along the way from some all-time investment greats always hold true.
Looking back at the 14 Fed rate cycles since 1929, certain patterns emerge. Still, investors instead need to examine what factors are driving the Fed now.
While it's too early to declare small caps' recent outperformance as a meaningful trend shift, we continue to think high-quality companies and industries will likely perform well.
The labor market continues to normalize and soften, but we think any further weakening might push the Fed to cut rates before the 2% inflation target is reached.
This year's tale of two markets has underscored resilience at the index level but considerable weakness at the individual member level, leading to massive performance divergences.
Certain segments of the economy and stock market have experienced much stronger recoveries this year, underscoring a severe bifurcation between the "haves" and "have nots."
Historically, the level of U.S. debt has had no correlation with the performance of the stock or bond markets.
The housing market looks to be on the road to recovery, but not without significant scarring for a considerable portion of potential homeowners.
Inflation data has continued to fuel uncertainty about when the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates. It's a question with global implications.
Bank lending standards are still restrictive, underscoring the Fed's view that financial conditions remain tight and any resulting economic weakness could keep rate cuts in play.
First-quarter earnings results have been healthy thus far, but key to the ongoing rally will be companies' recovery in revenue growth and strengthening forward guidance.
While major indexes have seemingly been calm this year, there are notable and stealthy sector leadership shifts that have happened under the surface.
There are signs that some previous "rolling recessions" are starting to turn into rolling recoveries.
Inflation looks to still be trending lower, but a relatively stubborn decline will likely inspire the Fed to start cutting rates later (and slower) than expected.
Over the past 70 years, rising government debt generally has been accompanied by weaker economic activity. But it's not a simple relationship.
Between adjustments in Fed policy and a coming presidential election, it's going to be an emotional year, but historical data shows staying invested is the best course for investors.
Sentiment data is beginning to match relatively strong "hard" economic data.
Investor sentiment and stock market valuations are getting increasingly stretched as indexes trek higher, but solid underlying breadth has been a positive offset for now.
Relatively hot inflation reports might be blips, but they reinforce why the Fed's rate-cutting cycle might be more gradual, which could be a better backdrop for stocks.
While focus remains on when the Fed will start cutting rates, history suggests other factors must be looked at when assessing forward stock market performance.
As expected, the Fed held rates steady in January, but importantly downplayed the likelihood that rate cuts will start as soon as March.
While the S&P 500's all-time high hasn't been accompanied by other parts of the market (notably, small caps), further gains are possible if breadth firms up.
Economic data has provided encouragement for both stock market bulls and bears.
While headline payroll growth was relatively strong in December, weaker details under the surface continue to paint a mixed labor market picture.
Economic pain is likely in 2024, but that doesn’t mean stocks will struggle all year, especially if there is a continuation of the rolling recessions that have hit the economy.
Like some advances earlier this year, the market's current surge hasn't been defined by strong breadth underneath the surface—which will be key for a sustained, durable advance.
With unanimity, the Fed opted to keep the fed funds rate unchanged but remains attentive to the idea that inflation risk should still be paid attention to.
Earnings results thus far underscore the strong bifurcation within the market, which is confirmed by the continued deterioration in breadth throughout the current correction.
