Historically, staying invested has been, in our view, an effective strategy and one to consider when it comes to election years and beyond.

Investors should be careful what they wish for in hoping for an aggressive Fed rate cutting cycle, given stocks tend to do better when cuts are slow and steady.

Looking back at the 14 Fed rate cycles since 1929, certain patterns emerge. Still, investors instead need to examine what factors are driving the Fed now.

While it's too early to declare small caps' recent outperformance as a meaningful trend shift, we continue to think high-quality companies and industries will likely perform well.

The labor market continues to normalize and soften, but we think any further weakening might push the Fed to cut rates before the 2% inflation target is reached.

This year's tale of two markets has underscored resilience at the index level but considerable weakness at the individual member level, leading to massive performance divergences.

Certain segments of the economy and stock market have experienced much stronger recoveries this year, underscoring a severe bifurcation between the "haves" and "have nots."

The housing market looks to be on the road to recovery, but not without significant scarring for a considerable portion of potential homeowners.

Bank lending standards are still restrictive, underscoring the Fed's view that financial conditions remain tight and any resulting economic weakness could keep rate cuts in play.

First-quarter earnings results have been healthy thus far, but key to the ongoing rally will be companies' recovery in revenue growth and strengthening forward guidance.

While major indexes have seemingly been calm this year, there are notable and stealthy sector leadership shifts that have happened under the surface.

Inflation looks to still be trending lower, but a relatively stubborn decline will likely inspire the Fed to start cutting rates later (and slower) than expected.

Over the past 70 years, rising government debt generally has been accompanied by weaker economic activity. But it's not a simple relationship.

Between adjustments in Fed policy and a coming presidential election, it's going to be an emotional year, but historical data shows staying invested is the best course for investors.

Investor sentiment and stock market valuations are getting increasingly stretched as indexes trek higher, but solid underlying breadth has been a positive offset for now.

Relatively hot inflation reports might be blips, but they reinforce why the Fed's rate-cutting cycle might be more gradual, which could be a better backdrop for stocks.

While focus remains on when the Fed will start cutting rates, history suggests other factors must be looked at when assessing forward stock market performance.

While the S&P 500's all-time high hasn't been accompanied by other parts of the market (notably, small caps), further gains are possible if breadth firms up.

While headline payroll growth was relatively strong in December, weaker details under the surface continue to paint a mixed labor market picture.

Economic pain is likely in 2024, but that doesn’t mean stocks will struggle all year, especially if there is a continuation of the rolling recessions that have hit the economy.

Like some advances earlier this year, the market's current surge hasn't been defined by strong breadth underneath the surface—which will be key for a sustained, durable advance.

Earnings results thus far underscore the strong bifurcation within the market, which is confirmed by the continued deterioration in breadth throughout the current correction.

Interest expense is a large and growing issue for both the economy and stock market, which reinforces why investors should stay up in quality amid interest-rate-driven headwinds.

A return to the Great Moderation Era looks unlikely, which might lead to an increasingly volatile—and somewhat unfamiliar—inflationary, economic, and geopolitical landscape.

The August jobs report confirms the labor market's continued slowdown, which is for now consistent with the Fed's soft-landing desires—but not without warning signs.

With the path of least resistance for stocks seemingly lower for now, key to watch will be a stabilization in interest rate volatility and clarity on the path of monetary policy.

Earnings season has thus far been a mixed bag, and despite a notable increase in the beat rate, the market is rightfully shifting focus to guidance for the rest of the year.

The recent broadening out in market breadth has been accompanied by frothier investor sentiment, but using sentiment as a market-timing tool is tricky (if not impossible).

The recent collection of labor data has painted a mixed jobs picture, but underlying wage strength and still-strong payroll growth will likely keep the Fed in a hawkish position.

After falling into its own recession last year, the housing market has started to turn decisively higher; but a sustained recovery might not be the strongest elixir for the economy.

A broadening out in market performance would help bolster a more sustainable stock rally, but that hinges on increasing clarity for monetary policy, recession risk, and bank stress.

The concentration of gains up the cap spectrum isn't itself a precursor to weakness; it's the lack of participation from the "average stock" that warrants some caution.

Leadership shifts at the sector and style levels warrant some additional caution, as well as a closer look as to what investors are buying when it comes to "growth vs. value."

In the face of banking stress and a hawkish Federal Reserve, stocks have advanced impressively so far this year, but narrow breadth doesn't bode well for continued strength.

Given the topsy-turvy nature of the market thus far in 2023, it remains crucial for investors to know what they are buying—especially as it relates to growth, value, and quality.

Weaker economic trends will likely form heading into 2023 as the Fed battles inflation, but a (hopefully) mild recession may help set stocks up for a better second half of the year.

Much attention has been paid to the elevated risk (and announcement) of a recession, but investors should instead focus on signals coming from leading economic indicators.

The August jobs report delivered something for both economic bulls and bears, but what matters more in the near term is the Fed's focus on seeing a continued easing in labor demand.

Second-quarter earnings growth will mark an expected deceleration in profits, but focus will likely continue to shift to the pace at which outlooks are downgraded.

Rising inflation, rate hikes, supply-chain problems and the Russia-Ukraine war have contributed to growing recession fears.

Sharp, countertrend rallies may continue this year, but aggressive Fed policy, the turning of the liquidity tide, and slower economic growth will likely keep pressure on stocks.

It was quite a month.

Recession chatter has picked up increasingly for numerous reasons, not least being the spike in oil prices, slowdown in economic growth estimates, and the Fed's transition from accommodative to tighter monetary policy.

There is no shortage of headwinds facing both the market and the economy: the tragic Russian invasion of Ukraine and attendant commodity/energy crisis; the Federal Reserve's transition from accommodative to tighter monetary policy; and increased chatter of a recession on the horizon; among others.

The war between Russia and Ukraine—and subsequent economic and financial ripple effects—has exacerbated stress in global markets and ushered in an acute risk-off environment.

“Jobs day” last Friday was a bit of a dud.

Bear with us as (no pun intended) you read this longer-than-usual outlook!

With less than two months left in what has been an extraordinary (and mystifying) year on multiple fronts, stocks have maintained a largely uninterrupted trek higher (at the index level) in the face of myriad headwinds...

The speculative exuberance around special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) seems to be over, but investors still have questions about them.

Special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs)—also known as blank-check companies—have gained immense popularity among investors since the beginning of 2020, despite being around for decades.