A time-honored belief holds that inflation is bad for stocks, but recent developments may be challenging this view.
In his testimony before the House Financial Services Committee February 12, Federal Reserve Chair Powell was questioned about why mortgage rates had not declined.
In a first quarter 2025 asset allocation report, Confluence expects resilient economic growth in the short term.
We suspect many investors today think the “American Exceptionalism” they studied in high school or college no longer applies to the U.S.
Concerns about the outlook for Treasuries have fueled a resurgence of interest in the Magnificent 7 as a target for safe-haven flows.
Even for dedicated investors, Social Security retirement benefits can be an important part of their financial security.
The yield curve indicates that US economic growth has slowed, with only limited signs that the economy could be heading into a broad decline.
The “Sahm Rule,” a widely used metric for determining the early stages of recession, was triggered in July.
In Part II, we discuss the reasons for the breakdown of the order prior to President Trump and follow this discussion with the impact of the current president. We project the likely actions of the nations in the region and, as always, conclude with market ramifications.
In past reports we have discussed America’s evolving hegemony, noting that America’s hegemonic narrative centered on containing communism which united Americans to accept the burden of the superpower role.
In Part II, we explain why Japanese-Korean hostilities have suddenly broken out into the open again and conclude by discussing the implications of the dispute for the countries’ economies and for investors.
The press has been reporting on a trade spat between Japan and South Korea, ostensibly tied to South Korean anger over Japan’s behavior in the runup to World War II. The dispute is only the latest chapter in a long history of conflict between Korea and Japan.
In Part I, we reviewed the U.S. current account problem, examined how the persistent deficit affects the economy, and discussed how the U.S. current account deficit is tied to American hegemony and ways the deficit could be addressed.
Last month, we wrote a two-part report on weaponizing the dollar. The continued strength of the dollar has become newsworthy recently, prompting us to provide an update to those earlier reports and include an analysis of new legislation introduced in the Senate.
Indian PM Modi’s latest surprising policy move was the sudden announcement that the northern state of Jammu and Kashmir would no longer have the special autonomy it has enjoyed since India’s independence.
The Financial Crisis consumed what was in many ways an overgrown and brittle economic system within the world’s developed countries. The conflagration destroyed many traditional politicians identified with the highly globalized economy and encouraged disruptive, populist leaders to begin reaching for their place in the sun.
In Part I, we began our analysis with a discussion of Mundell’s Impossible Trinity. We also covered the gold standard model and Bretton Woods model. In Part II, we examine the Treasury/dollar standard and introduce what could be called Bretton Woods II.
The Bretton Woods agreement established a system of fixed exchange rates that lasted until Nixon ended foreign dollar holders’ ability to swap for gold. Since 1971, most developed nations have adopted floating exchange rates and open capital accounts.
In Part I, we referenced the basic philosophies of David Hume and Adam Smith and how their writings evolved into the economic theory of supply and demand.
People tend to think in paradigms. We adopt a certain worldview or narrative for how things work and then impose them on reality. The problem is that our worldview or paradigm may not be true.
Thirty years ago, troops descended upon Tiananmen Square to forcibly remove protestors who were agitating for democracy, an end to corruption and a more inclusive political system. Details remain unsettled, but hundreds of students were killed or injured.
Historians tend to view the shift from one hegemon to another as a clear, abrupt break. But, in reality, faded hegemons tend to cling to elements of former glory. As we watch Brexit unfold, one persistent theme has emerged—much of Brexit is about unresolved issues surrounding the end of the British Empire.
In Part III, we examined the role of economic paradigms in the equality/efficiency cycle. All the major economic paradigms previously discussed lead to eventual problems. Capital-friendly policies eventually lead to inequality, while policies less friendly to capital eventually become inflationary.
In Part II, we discussed the principles and consequences of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). This week’s installment will be devoted to the importance of paradigms. Next week, we will conclude the series with a discussion on the potential flaws of MMT along with market ramifications.
In Part I of this four-part series, we introduced this report and discussed the origin narratives of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). This week, we will examine the principles and consequences of the theory. MMT begins its analysis with a focus on macroeconomic identities and flows. Assuming MMT does hold, what does it mean for policy and the economy?
Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) has recently become a hot topic of discussion. In our opinion, the rise of MMT reflects the continued shift in the equality/efficiency cycle. The goal of this report is to describe MMT, examine its key elements and potential policy ramifications, and let the reader decide what to think.
Last week, we examined the geopolitics of Britain and offered an abbreviated history of Irish/British relations. This week, we will begin by analyzing the Good Friday Agreement, followed by an analysis of Brexit regarding the Irish question. As always, we will conclude with market ramifications.
As the U.K. continues on its path to withdraw from the EU, a key element that needs to be considered is the border issue in Ireland. The Northern Ireland/Ireland frontier has broader geopolitical implications beyond just a border issue.
On February 16, 2019, Nigeria will hold its 6th presidential election since it ended military rule in 1999. Even though the last election saw a relatively peaceful transition of power, historically, elections in Nigeria have been violent. Thus, this election has garnered international attention as it could lead to broader conflict within the region.
In Part I of this report, we laid out the two narratives that the U.S. and China are using to frame relations between the two countries. This week, we will summarize the two positions and examine the potential for war using the historical examples of British policy toward the U.S. and Germany...
Over the past few years, we have noted steady changes in American views toward China, and vice versa, that will likely lead to superpower competition and the potential for conflict. In Part I of this report, we will discuss the American and Chinese viewpoints.
In Part I, we discussed the issues surrounding predicting inflection points, defined as reversals of long-term trends. This week, we examine two long-term trends that we believe are approaching inflection points and offer guideposts that we think will signal further progress toward inflection.
History seems to move in broad cycles. Beliefs come into and fall out of favor. Despite evidence of these cycles, people tend to assume trends that are in place will remain in place forever, and it can come as a shock to society when trends shift.
As is our custom, we close out the current year with our geopolitical outlook for the next one. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that we believe will dominate the international landscape in the upcoming year.
This week, we conclude our series by describing what we view as a new model for the superpower role, the Malevolent Hegemon. We will discuss the differences between this model and the previous one. With this analysis in place, we will examine the potential outcomes from this shift and conclude with potential market ramifications.
In Part I, we examined the basic role of the hegemon and the unique model the U.S. has created, which we dubbed the “Benevolent Hegemon.” This week, we discuss why many Americans have become disenchanted with this model, which is pressuring policymakers to either jettison the superpower role or significantly redefine it.
Since Trump’s election, there has been much discussion about the demise of the “Liberal International Order” (LIO). The general tenor is that the US is giving up global leadership and the world is in trouble. We’ve been making this argument as well for a long time.
In May, the Trump administration exited the Iran nuclear deal and implemented new sanctions. Because the US has a tendency to implement financial sanctions against its perceived adversaries, there have been growing calls for an alternative to dollar-based trade.
Part II begins with a discussion on migration with a focus on emigrant flows. We include an analysis of the problems caused by migration followed by an examination of the possible end to this crisis and the broader geopolitical issues. As always, we conclude with potential market ramifications.
Venezuela has gone from “bad to worse” in recent years. After Hugo Chavez died in 2013, Nicolas Maduro has been the nation’s chief executive, presiding over an accelerating political and economic disaster. His mismanagement has led to a migration crisis.
Two years ago, Islamic State, Kurds and various rebel groups controlled much of Syria. With Russian and Iranian assistance, Syrian President Assad has been steadily winning back territory.
Last week, we covered Turkey’s geopolitics and history. This week, we complete the series, starting with a discussion on Turkey’s economy with a focus on the changes brought by the Justice and Development Party (AKP), led by President Erdogan. We also examine how foreign debt affects Turkey’s economy and financial system, highlight the impact of the 2016 coup and analyze the causes of the current crisis in Turkey. From there, we discuss the debt problem and Turkey’s options for resolving the crisis. As always, we conclude with market ramifications.
Turkey has become a major topic of interest. A 2017 constitutional referendum gave the president sweeping powers, and President Erdogan won re-election in June 2018. Since then, an economic crisis has developed, with falling financial asset prices and a sharp currency decline.
The Trump administration withdrew from the Iranian nuclear deal and plans to implement sanctions on the country in two phases. In Part I, we introduced this topic and covered the first two potential responses from Iran, which were restarting the nuclear program and projecting power. Last week, we covered the threat to the Strait of Hormuz.
Last week, we introduced the topic of the Trump administration’s decision to implement sanctions on Iran and covered two potential responses from Iran, which were restarting its nuclear program and projecting power. This week, we discuss the threat to the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal with Iran in May. Although the rest of the signatories remain committed to the original agreement, the U.S. plans to implement sanctions on Iran in two phases.
We occasionally run across a book that we deem important enough in the arena of geopolitics to warrant a full report dedicated to its review, The Marshall Plan: Dawn of the Cold War by Benn Steil. This book details the history of the Marshall Plan, discusses how the plan developed and identifies the major historical figures who created it.
The Cuban National Assembly recently elected Miguel Diáz-Canel as Cuba’s new president. There has been much media conversation about a generational shift in Cuba. In this report, we discuss the potential for change on the island nation, which has been communist since the 1959 Cuban Revolution.
This week, we will conclude our series on globalization with a discussion of how China and Russia threaten U.S. hegemony, the potential responses and close with market ramifications.
Last week, we introduced this topic by discussing the Cold War. This week, we will continue our analysis with a reflection on markets, an examination of hegemony and a discussion of the expansion of globalization and the rise of meritocracy and its discontents.
