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"It is impossible to produce superior performance unless you do something different from the majority." - John Templeton
For the last five years, bond market experts have unfailingly and wrongly predicted a rise in interest rates. If the current rate-hike fears prove unfounded again, municipal-backed closed-end funds (M-CEFs) is an asset subclass likely to perform well. Here are eight such funds to consider.
Before discussing those funds, let’s look at the trends driving the interest rate environment. In a 720 Global article from March 2015, “What deadly summers, Sandy Koufax and lucky golfers can tell us about bonds,” I concluded: “Deflationary forces around the globe are legion. Despite the battalion of seemingly gargantuan efforts by central bankers to prop up inflation and restart growth, those stated objectives remain elusively out of reach. Ignoring the truth of these circumstances will not diminish their impact on U.S. yields.”
That article proposed that a sluggish economy and ongoing deflationary pressures would continue to drive U.S. interest rates lower. Since then, yields (U.S. and German) have risen despite weaker economic activity and further deflationary signals. The Federal Reserve’s perceived stalling of rate increases, pronounced bond market illiquidity and bouts of foreign central bank selling were three of the chief justifications behind the recent increase in yields.
Since the great bull market in interest rates started in October 1981, we have seen numerous short-term counter-trend increases in rates. The result each time was curtailed lending, slower growth and a re-emergence of deflationary forces. Ironically, higher yields ultimately were followed by lower yields each time.
Despite the low absolute level of interest rates currently, the downtrend in yield is not over.
This current bond market sell-off has many of the markings of the so called “taper tantrum” sell-off in mid to late 2013. As in 2013, bond bears are declaring an end to a rally of over 30 years. In 2013 the bears believed the end of quantitative easing (QE3) would arrest the bull market in bond yields. In early 2014, despite QE3 ending and a distinctly bearish bond market tone, bond prices not only completely reversed the losses of the prior seven months, but went on to achieve new lows in yields.
Many factors suggest the current move higher in yield is a short-term retracement similar to the taper tantrum and other prior counter trend sell-offs. This instance will once again result in what technicians call a “lower low” in yields.
10 Year U.S. Treasury Yields (Long-Term Bull Market)
Data Courtesy: Bloomberg
10 Year U.S. Treasury Yields (Short-Term)
Data Courtesy: Bloomberg
For investors with a similar short-term forecast (six months to one year), there are a wide selection of fixed income securities to choose from that will profit from a decrease in yields. One such security that most investors tend to overlook is M-CEFs. In a bullish bond market, M-CEF’s benefit from lower yields and tightening spreads like most fixed income products. However, they also currently offer an opportunity to indirectly purchase municipal bonds at a discount to their price.
M-CEF’s priced at a discount offer value in a world where there is very little to be found.
What are CEF’s?
Closed-end funds (CEF’s) are mutual funds with a fixed number of shares, unlike most other mutual funds whose share count fluctuates daily with investor purchases and sales. Also differentiating CEF’s from open-end mutual funds is the fact that CEF shares are bought or sold on exchanges, not via direct transactions with the associated mutual fund company. It is this unique feature that results in CEF’s trading at a premium or discount to their net asset value (NAV).
The three biggest factors that determine why a CEF might trade at a premium or discount to its NAV are:
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Strong demand and/or low supply of the fund may result in a premium, while weak demand and/or excess supply will frequently result in a discount
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The higher the quality of the fund management team, the greater the premium (or smaller the discount).
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The greater the liquidity of the underlying fund holdings, the greater the premium (or smaller the discount).
The change in the premium or discount to NAV is just one return factor determining total return for CEFs. The table below highlights all of the factors influencing the total return for M-CEF’s.
| Total Return Factor |
Comment |
| Underlying municipal bond yields |
As yields decrease, prices increase helping total return. The opposite occurs when yields increase. |
| Coupon/yield |
Most of the CEF’s we researched have a yield ranging from 6 to 8%. |
| Discount divergence from NAV |
As the discount normalizes towards zero, the price of the M-CEF increases. If the discount widens, the price falls. |
| Leverage |
Leverage used by the M-CEFs amplify price changes (gains and losses) and dividends. |
| Expense ratio |
The fee that the fund manager decreases the M-CEF’s return. Higher fees erode returns. |
Selecting the right M-CEF
My firm analyzed 50 M-CEF’s taking into account the following attributes: current discount to NAV, 2013/2014 performance, expense ratio, underlying bond ratings, specific holdings, duration and leverage. The table below shows some of the funds we analyzed and a sampling of the statistics used in our analysis. The eight M-CEFs highlighted in blue offer the best value based on self-imposed factors and risk constraints.
Data Courtesy: Bloomberg, Morningstar and various fund prospectuses
Below are considerations for investing in M-CEFs:
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M-CEF’s should represent a piece of a fixed-income allocation and not the entire allocation. While the yield and potential price return are alluring, they also introduce a level of risk. Diversifying within the fixed income arena will mitigate specific risks of holding M-CEFs and in particular municipal bonds. Given the current news regarding Puerto Rico and worsening fiscal problems of other states and municipalities, diversification is critical.
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Market timing is very hard. Investors in M-CEFs should scale into purchases over time. Investors that bought M-CEF’s 3-4 months before the rally began in 2013 still profited handsomely from their decisions (shown in the chart below).
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Diversify amongst M-CEF’s. Different managers and funds provide access to a wider array of underlying bonds, which limits the potential difficulties that one manager or a certain bond can cause.
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Liquidity is an issue. It is common for less than 150,000 shares of M-CEF’s to trade in a given day. As a result, bid-offer spreads are a little wider than those to which one may be accustomed. Buying over time with discipline makes it harder for market makers to take advantage of a buyer.
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Monitor the discount. As the discount normalizes, one should consider re-allocating a portion of M-CEF holdings to deeper discounted M-CEF’s or to other traditional fixed income products.
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Many CEF’s have tax advantages. Consider each client’s need for tax efficiency and be sure to analyze returns on an after tax basis.
Comparable performance 2013/2014
The chart below contrasts the eight selected M-CEFs (those shaded in blue in the table above) to a comparable U.S Treasury ETF and municipal bond ETF over different time frames, including the 2013 swoon and the 2014 rally. As noted earlier, investors in M-CEF’s that were 3-4 months early in 2013 still profited handsomely from their decisions (see the September 2013-May 2014 time frame below). For reference purposes, the “temper tantrum” occurred from April through December of 2013. During this period 10-year yields increased 1.35%. Starting in January of 2014, yields reversed course and fell 1.43% over the following 13 months.
Annualized Returns – M-CEFs vs U.S. Treasuries and Municipal Bonds
Data Courtesy: Bloomberg
Michael Lebowitz is the founding partner of 720 Global, an investment consultant specializing in macroeconomic research, valuations, asset allocation and risk management. Our objective is to provide professional investment managers with unique and relevant information that can be incorporated into their investment process to enhance performance and marketing. We assist our clients in differentiating themselves from the crowd with a focus on value, performance and a clear, lucid assessment of global market and economic dynamics. 720 Global research is available for re-branding and customization for distribution to your clients. For more information about our services please contact us at 301.466.1204 or email [email protected]If the recent rise in bond yields is in fact a counter trend that ultimately results in lower yields, M-CEFs offer unique value. A normalization of the CEF discounts in such an environment has the potential to make a good bond call a great trade.
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