Join the experts at VettaFi and KraneShares for an in-depth exploration of the generative AI space and learn how you can set your portfolio up to capture the potential of this exciting new technology.
Since the end of the “Yen Carry Trade” correction in August, bullish positioning has returned with a vengeance, yet two key risks face investors as September begins. While bullish positioning and optimism are ingredients for a rising market, there is more to this story.
The U.S. economy may be heading into choppy waters, and investors might be wise to buckle up.
The main focus for investors should is no longer if the Fed will cut rates in 2024, but how much and how quickly the Fed will lower interest rates.
Gold is typically an asset that doesn’t generate yield, but there are ETFs that deliver yield on a gold position through options.
Most people see “blockchain” and “funds” in the same sentence and immediately think of pools of money betting on cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ether. That isn’t how Singapore sees the utility of distributed ledgers.
The world’s biggest asset manager is taking some chips off the table as markets enter a “new phase” of turbulence ahead of a Federal Reserve interest rate cutting cycle and the US presidential election.
High interest rates have had the predictable effect of restraining the performances of dividend stocks and related exchange traded funds.
The Federal Reserve is creating the potential for extreme bouts of volatility surrounded economic data releases.
Despite pullbacks and elevated volatility in the earlier days of the month, major equity indices were up in August.
Jane Street Group LLC and Citadel Securities are on a tear. First-half revenue at the two predominantly electronic market makers grew about 80% compared with the first six months of 2023, according to Bloomberg News. That’s enough to make traditional Wall Street executives green with envy — but these upstarts aren’t going to completely devour the old guards’ lunch.
Investors should be careful what they wish for in hoping for an aggressive Fed rate cutting cycle, given stocks tend to do better when cuts are slow and steady.
This week’s data reflects the resilience of the U.S. economy. Currently, the economy is holding steady with jobless claims in the 230,000 range and recent inflation data showing stability. Friday’s inflation report was essentially at expectations and indicates that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will make a rate cut of at least 25 basis points (bps) at the September meeting. Whether the cut is 25 or 50 will depend mostly on this week’s employment report.
Using infographics to illustrate your firm’s financial planning process is a great way to show the value you provide. Whether in your marketing materials, initial consultations, or new client onboarding, these visuals can help set the stage for a successful and growing relationship.
Equity bulls looking for signs of relief after Tuesday’s stock rout may get a hand from a familiar friend: corporate America.
The sharp selloff that wiped a record $279 billion off Nvidia Corp.’s market value on Tuesday has traders scouring charts for clues as to where the pain might end.
The case for infrastructure investment is rising, but so are its costs.
A soft landing for the U.S. economy still appears to be the most likely outcome.
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the August 2024 close.
Few human activities are more central to historiography than war, and yet historians are poorly equipped to understand its evolutionary and psychological roots: Why War? attempts, with only partial success, to close this gap.
Half your coworkers might have just spent August in Europe, but there were no holiday doldrums in the booming world of ETFs.
It’s the story of so many stock market manias: A transformative technology juices a few companies, a bunch of more questionable outfits follow in their wake, and Wall Street buys it all. Then time sorts out what’s real from fake.
Apple Inc.’s upcoming iPhone release has sent its stock price soaring because of promised artificial-intelligence features. Those gains appear vulnerable, at least in the short term, if history is any guide.
After a bit of an early-August swoon, the stock market came roaring back in the last few weeks of the month. The S&P 500 finished up 2.4%, though certainly in the early days of August, that did not feel like a particularly likely outcome. In client conversations a few days into the selloff, our feeling was to stay put and not tinker with the portfolios we suggested in early August.
In our view, stagflation scenarios tend to be worse for balanced portfolios than recessions.
This week saw a nontech giant cross a unique milestone and a tech giant’s earnings report become a Mainstreet sensation.
I asked my great friend and business partner David Bahnsen, who is about as politically wired as anyone and one of the truly great economic and investment minds, to reflect on the intersection of politics and markets. It is a quick, balanced, and reasonable read...
As I write this, gold continues to trade above $2,500 an ounce after surging past the psychologically important level for the first time ever in mid-August. For seasoned gold mining investors, this should be a moment of validation. After all, the yellow metal has long been seen as the ultimate hedge against economic uncertainty.
Copper has been trending lower since the middle of May, but supply disruptions in Latin America could help reverse that trend.
When you see that behavior at extreme valuations, it tends to be a sign of underlying skittishness and risk aversion. When valuations are setting record extremes because the news can’t get any better, even a slightly less optimistic outlook becomes a risk.
China's economic transformation presents both challenges and opportunities for global markets.
There’s an adage in Silicon Valley: Hardware is hard. And expensive. And time-consuming. That’s the case even when you’re a company that’s really good at it — like Nvidia Corp., whose market value has grown to $3 trillion thanks to its extraordinary prowess in the trickiest hardware challenge today: building cutting-edge chips for artificial intelligence.
Nvidia Corp., the world’s biggest chipmaker, has discussed joining a funding round for OpenAI that would value the artificial intelligence startup at more than $100 billion, according to people familiar with the matter.
The late Jack Bogle — father of the first index fund — famously loathed their exchange-traded offspring, warning that it only incentivize speculative trading among “fruitcakes, nut cases and lunatic fringe.” Fast forward to 2024, and critics warn a new generation of ETFs are designed to do exactly that.
When global equity markets tumbled in early August, investors got a glimpse of what a deeper correction could like for the US giants, and it wasn’t pretty. The so-called Magnificent Seven have dominated US and global equity market returns since late 2022—and valuations have soared—as earnings growth rebounded and on expectations that they will be the big winners from artificial intelligence (AI).
The path for lower rates in the U.S. has finally arrived.
If your home and/or its contents are destroyed or damaged by a disaster such as a fire or flood, the insurance company will need a complete list of what was lost. Do you have such a list?
Chair Jerome Powell cemented a shift in focus from inflation to employment last week when he said that the Federal Reserve does not seek a further cooling in the labor market. It was a welcome message for those concerned about an economic slowdown. But there are reasons to expect today’s sluggish hiring environment to persist at least into early next year, frustrating job seekers and policymakers alike.
Nvidia Corp.’s earnings report needed to be perfect for a stock that’s added nearly $2 trillion in market value in the past year. In the end, a broad beat still sparked a selloff.
Nvidia Corp.’s earnings report was impressive by virtually any metric — except its own recent history.
Nvidia Corp. failed to live up to investor hopes with its latest results on Wednesday, delivering an underwhelming forecast and news of production snags with its much-awaited Blackwell chips.
The Big Tech boom is causing headaches for all-powerful index providers on Wall Street, who can send billions of benchmark-tracking dollars on the move with just a stroke of the pen.
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. became the first US company outside of the tech sector to surpass $1 trillion in market value.
Try a combination of things to get people energized. Often once people do engage, they find themselves enjoying it!
The almost $3 trillion rally in Nvidia Corp. shares over the roughly two years since ChatGPT’s unveiling has virtually rewired the US stock market, giving the artificial intelligence chipmaking giant an outsized influence on a bevy of equity indexes.
Portfolio managers should always have good explanations for their underweight positions. These days, it matters more than ever.
After a downward slide at the end of July and beginning of August, markets are attempting to recover losses. Through Friday, the S&P 500 experienced seven consecutive “up” days. Three of these up days qualified as “outlier” days (more than +/-1.50%).
Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas discusses his top ETF stories, industry “white space”, crypto ETFs, and much more. VettaFi’s Cinthia Murphy offers perspective on the future of ARK Invest and Cathie Wood.
Midstream’s second quarter earnings calls reinforced the positive outlook for US natural gas demand driven in part by expected power demand from data centers. This note discusses the advantages of natural gas for data centers, additional factors contributing to demand growth, and how midstream is uniquely positioned to benefit from these trends.
Improve your income potential with a tactical, unconstrained strategy that sources opportunities across geographies and asset classes. BlackRock Multi-Asset Income Fund takes a risk-first approach while seeking to deliver a consistently attractive yield.
Artificial intelligence has the potential to reshape our economies, labor markets, societies, and politics. But despite the rosy forecasts of an AI-driven boom, history shows that technological advances rarely lead to immediate improvements in living standards and often lead to profound disruption.
The potential of AI in wealth management is undeniable, but realizing that potential requires more than just adopting the latest technology. By engaging advisors in the process, providing thorough training, and setting realistic expectations, firms can bridge the gap between C-suite optimism and frontline reality.
To make an organizational change effort stick, you have to start with the people, not with KPIs or quotas. If you want to move your firm to a client-centric model, you need to consider influencing factors such as your organizational structure and culture...
The market’s 8.5% decline during August sent shockwaves through the media and investors. The drop raised concerns about whether this was the start of a larger correction or a temporary pullback. However, a powerful reversal, driven by investor buying and corporate share repurchases, halted the decline, leading many to wonder if the worst is behind us.
This week, before she accepted the Democratic Party’s nomination for president, Vice President Kamala Harris threw her support behind President Joe Biden’s tax proposals for 2025, which include a steep 44.6% capital gains rate and an unprecedented 25% tax on unrealized gains.
Mark Zuckerberg may have a history of copying of others’ ideas, but when it comes to navigating the generative AI hype cycle, he’s the one forging a smarter path.
New orders for manufactured durable goods rose to $289.65B in July, the highest level since November. This represents a 9.9% increase from the previous month and better than the expected 4.0% growth. The series is up 1.3% year-over-year (YoY). If we exclude transportation, "core" durable goods were down 0.2% from the previous month and up 0.6% from one year ago.
Our outlook on the 11 S&P 500 equity sectors.
Deep value stocks are currently our highest conviction long-only investment idea. For the avoidance of any doubt, when we talk about “deep value,” we simply mean stocks that are cheap, often screamingly so, relative to our appraisal of their fair value. We do not care about a “growth” or “value” label that has been assigned, sometimes seemingly arbitrarily, by one index provider or another.
With recent cooling in economic growth, an uptick in unemployment, inflation moderating back to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% target, and expectations for rate cuts, we believe the winds are shifting in the U.S. fixed income market.
Robust U.S. stock momentum hit a slowdown in the third quarter, even as strong company earnings results rolled in. Fundamental Equities’ U.S. and Developed Markets CIO Carrie King weighs in on the incongruence with three reflections from Q2 earnings season.
One of the most widely followed gauges of the stock market, for decades a reliable indicator of future returns, has led investors astray in recent years. Its misdirection comes down to the freakish earnings growth of big technology companies such as Apple Inc. and Alphabet Inc.
Technology giants that want to spend big on artificial intelligence and stay in the good graces of investors should take a page out of Meta Platforms Inc.’s playbook.
Emerging-market stocks are trading at the steepest discount to US equities since the Covid-19 panic in March 2020 as skittish investors look elsewhere for growth opportunities.
Since our last update of the Three Tactical Rules on June 25, 2024, equity markets have retraced most of the rally from the spring. The change in market sentiment came abruptly, due to the labor market showing signs of weakness as the number of jobs available per unemployed worker fell to 1.2 and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The recent market volatility has had a dramatic impact on our tactical rules.
Amid expectations of rate cuts from major central banks, managers are increasing their exposure to more cyclical and value-oriented names, including autos, transportation, and short-cycle industrials.
Many financial advisors exhibit a risk-averse attitude, leading to missed opportunities for growth and innovation.
With questions swirling around Federal Reserve policy, the state of the economy and the US presidential race, at least one thing seems clear on Wall Street: spending on artificial intelligence remains a central priority.
As the AI halo begins to fade, equity investors are seeking companies that can profit from—and not just pontificate about—artificial intelligence.
Since the release of ChatGPT, mega-cap technology companies poised to profit from AI-enhanced software tools or cloud AI-model training capabilities have seen a surge in their stock prices. Yet, many have yet to realize significant AI-driven revenue growth, let alone a substantial impact on their bottom lines.
More than any of the megacap technology stocks, Amazon.com Inc.’s big spending ways are coming at the expense of profits, and its shares are being punished as a result.
Looking back at the 14 Fed rate cycles since 1929, certain patterns emerge. Still, investors instead need to examine what factors are driving the Fed now.
Silver is an important component of solar photovoltaic (PV) panels, meaning that for China to reach its ambitious climate targets, it must import massive amounts of the white metal. In June alone, China spent over $228 million on silver, a new monthly record based on Bloomberg data going back to 2009.
Ethical Capital's Sloane Ortel marshals the data to counter the arguments against aggressively fighting climate change laid out in Larry Siegel's recent article.
The recent rebound in US tech stocks isn’t convincing options traders just yet.
Markets were recently rattled by concerns the U.S. may slip into recession, but it's not clear that those fears are justified.
Earlier this year, around the time Nvidia Corp.’s market cap eclipsed that of the entire S&P 500 energy sector, I wrote about whether oil and gas stocks might offer a decent hedge when AI-fever breaks. The past several weeks have offered a test.
Portfolio Manager Jeremy Sutch, CFA, and Chief Investment Officer Sean Taylor assess the issues besetting the region’s key markets—from domestic challenges to geopolitical headwinds—as well as their structural strengths, and whether prospects may brighten with the onset of a U.S. rate-cutting cycle.
Value has been in a protracted slump versus growth for years, but it’s been undergoing something of a makeover during that time.
With US equities on the rebound, this summer’s selloff is looking more like a pause in the bull market than the beginning of its end.
Because there is unprecedented use of the word “unprecedented,” we thought it appropriate to expand our annual Charts for the Beach from 5 charts to 10 charts and tables this year. So, probably best to stay under the beach umbrella as you read our unprecedented extended edition.
Alphabet Inc. investors are facing a long period of uncertainty as they grapple with a scenario they previously saw as unlikely: a possible breakup of Google.
George Soros and Stanley Druckenmiller’s investment firms trimmed their holdings in “Magnificent Seven” stocks before this year’s ebullient run-up in technology companies gave way to a major downturn in mid-July.
Warren Buffett’s longtime business partner Charlie Munger brought quality to value investing. Now Buffett is bringing value to quality investing.
Manufacturing activity declined slightly in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing August survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions was little changed at -4.7. The latest reading was better than the forecast of -5.9.
This year, the bears have asserted themselves after the bulls controlled the first half. Shares of companies that recently announced stock splits are well off their highs, generally not benefiting from the historical trend of outperformance.
Technology stocks led the market for much of this year, with AI euphoria in full effect. Recent cracks in the momentum caused some investors to question whether the enthusiasm has been exhausted. Technology investors and active stock pickers Tony Kim and Reid Menge offer answers ― and an optimistic outlook.
It's a good time to revisit which equity market sectors are defensive themes. Certain products are nondiscretionary we can't live without.
With the Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) lower, it might not yet be safe for investors to rush back to mega-cap growth stocks.
Innovative ETFs
Understanding the AI Ecosystem & Investment Opportunity
Join the experts at VettaFi and KraneShares for an in-depth exploration of the generative AI space and learn how you can set your portfolio up to capture the potential of this exciting new technology.
Risks Facing Bullish Investors As September Begins
Since the end of the “Yen Carry Trade” correction in August, bullish positioning has returned with a vengeance, yet two key risks face investors as September begins. While bullish positioning and optimism are ingredients for a rising market, there is more to this story.
The Yield Curve Inversion Just Ended, but Economic Risks Remain
The U.S. economy may be heading into choppy waters, and investors might be wise to buckle up.
Fed Rate Cuts Coming in September: What’s Next?
The main focus for investors should is no longer if the Fed will cut rates in 2024, but how much and how quickly the Fed will lower interest rates.
Why Now & How: 3 ETF Ways to Access Gold Ahead of Rate Move
Gold is typically an asset that doesn’t generate yield, but there are ETFs that deliver yield on a gold position through options.
Why Singapore Is Bringing Blockchain Into Mutual Funds
Most people see “blockchain” and “funds” in the same sentence and immediately think of pools of money betting on cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ether. That isn’t how Singapore sees the utility of distributed ledgers.
BlackRock Dials Back Risk Across $131 Billion Model Portfolios
The world’s biggest asset manager is taking some chips off the table as markets enter a “new phase” of turbulence ahead of a Federal Reserve interest rate cutting cycle and the US presidential election.
Rate Cuts Could Stoke Dividend Stock Renaissance
High interest rates have had the predictable effect of restraining the performances of dividend stocks and related exchange traded funds.
Volatility Cocktail
The Federal Reserve is creating the potential for extreme bouts of volatility surrounded economic data releases.
Fed Rate Cuts Give Higher Probability of the Great Rotation Occurring
Despite pullbacks and elevated volatility in the earlier days of the month, major equity indices were up in August.
Jane Street and Citadel Won’t Devour All of Wall Street’s Revenue
Jane Street Group LLC and Citadel Securities are on a tear. First-half revenue at the two predominantly electronic market makers grew about 80% compared with the first six months of 2023, according to Bloomberg News. That’s enough to make traditional Wall Street executives green with envy — but these upstarts aren’t going to completely devour the old guards’ lunch.
It's Time … For a Fed Pivot
Investors should be careful what they wish for in hoping for an aggressive Fed rate cutting cycle, given stocks tend to do better when cuts are slow and steady.
A Careful Recalibration Needed
This week’s data reflects the resilience of the U.S. economy. Currently, the economy is holding steady with jobless claims in the 230,000 range and recent inflation data showing stability. Friday’s inflation report was essentially at expectations and indicates that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will make a rate cut of at least 25 basis points (bps) at the September meeting. Whether the cut is 25 or 50 will depend mostly on this week’s employment report.
Showcase Your Value With Financial Planning Process Infographics
Using infographics to illustrate your firm’s financial planning process is a great way to show the value you provide. Whether in your marketing materials, initial consultations, or new client onboarding, these visuals can help set the stage for a successful and growing relationship.
Would-Be Corporate Dip Buyers Armed With Fresh $107 Billion
Equity bulls looking for signs of relief after Tuesday’s stock rout may get a hand from a familiar friend: corporate America.
Nvidia Rout Has Traders Watching $100-Share Level Amid ‘Vacuum’
The sharp selloff that wiped a record $279 billion off Nvidia Corp.’s market value on Tuesday has traders scouring charts for clues as to where the pain might end.
Reinforcing Economic Foundations
The case for infrastructure investment is rising, but so are its costs.
August Sees Markets Close Strong After Tough Start
A soft landing for the U.S. economy still appears to be the most likely outcome.
The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since Their 2000 Highs
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the August 2024 close.
The Problem with Human Beings
Few human activities are more central to historiography than war, and yet historians are poorly equipped to understand its evolutionary and psychological roots: Why War? attempts, with only partial success, to close this gap.
Sizzling ETF Flows in Manic Markets Fuel a $609 Billion Haul
Half your coworkers might have just spent August in Europe, but there were no holiday doldrums in the booming world of ETFs.
Shorts Are Circling Some of the AI Boom’s Biggest Question Marks
It’s the story of so many stock market manias: A transformative technology juices a few companies, a bunch of more questionable outfits follow in their wake, and Wall Street buys it all. Then time sorts out what’s real from fake.
Apple Rally Fueled by AI Promises Approaches a Crucial Test
Apple Inc.’s upcoming iPhone release has sent its stock price soaring because of promised artificial-intelligence features. Those gains appear vulnerable, at least in the short term, if history is any guide.
Quant Street September 2024 Investor Letter: All Eyes on the Fed
After a bit of an early-August swoon, the stock market came roaring back in the last few weeks of the month. The S&P 500 finished up 2.4%, though certainly in the early days of August, that did not feel like a particularly likely outcome. In client conversations a few days into the selloff, our feeling was to stay put and not tinker with the portfolios we suggested in early August.
Stagflation vs. Recession
In our view, stagflation scenarios tend to be worse for balanced portfolios than recessions.
Berkshire Hathaway vs Nvidia: The Battle Between Value & Growth
This week saw a nontech giant cross a unique milestone and a tech giant’s earnings report become a Mainstreet sensation.
Your Portfolio and the Election
I asked my great friend and business partner David Bahnsen, who is about as politically wired as anyone and one of the truly great economic and investment minds, to reflect on the intersection of politics and markets. It is a quick, balanced, and reasonable read...
Why Gold Stocks Could Be a Contrarian Investor’s Dream Right Now
As I write this, gold continues to trade above $2,500 an ounce after surging past the psychologically important level for the first time ever in mid-August. For seasoned gold mining investors, this should be a moment of validation. After all, the yellow metal has long been seen as the ultimate hedge against economic uncertainty.
Supply Disruptions Could Push Copper Prices Higher
Copper has been trending lower since the middle of May, but supply disruptions in Latin America could help reverse that trend.
Fed Pivots and Baby Aspirin
When you see that behavior at extreme valuations, it tends to be a sign of underlying skittishness and risk aversion. When valuations are setting record extremes because the news can’t get any better, even a slightly less optimistic outlook becomes a risk.
China's Growth Evolution: Opportunities and Challenges for the Global Economy
China's economic transformation presents both challenges and opportunities for global markets.
Nvidia Investors Must Remember — Hardware Is Hard
There’s an adage in Silicon Valley: Hardware is hard. And expensive. And time-consuming. That’s the case even when you’re a company that’s really good at it — like Nvidia Corp., whose market value has grown to $3 trillion thanks to its extraordinary prowess in the trickiest hardware challenge today: building cutting-edge chips for artificial intelligence.
Nvidia Discusses Joining OpenAI’s Latest Funding Round
Nvidia Corp., the world’s biggest chipmaker, has discussed joining a funding round for OpenAI that would value the artificial intelligence startup at more than $100 billion, according to people familiar with the matter.
One-Day-Only Funds Are Jack Bogle’s Nightmare Brought to Life
The late Jack Bogle — father of the first index fund — famously loathed their exchange-traded offspring, warning that it only incentivize speculative trading among “fruitcakes, nut cases and lunatic fringe.” Fast forward to 2024, and critics warn a new generation of ETFs are designed to do exactly that.
Expanding the Hunt for Attractively Valued Equities
When global equity markets tumbled in early August, investors got a glimpse of what a deeper correction could like for the US giants, and it wasn’t pretty. The so-called Magnificent Seven have dominated US and global equity market returns since late 2022—and valuations have soared—as earnings growth rebounded and on expectations that they will be the big winners from artificial intelligence (AI).
The Shot Heard Round The World
The path for lower rates in the U.S. has finally arrived.
How to Get Full Protection From Your Homeowners Insurance
If your home and/or its contents are destroyed or damaged by a disaster such as a fire or flood, the insurance company will need a complete list of what was lost. Do you have such a list?
Fed Rate Cuts Are No Magic Fix for Anemic Hiring
Chair Jerome Powell cemented a shift in focus from inflation to employment last week when he said that the Federal Reserve does not seek a further cooling in the labor market. It was a welcome message for those concerned about an economic slowdown. But there are reasons to expect today’s sluggish hiring environment to persist at least into early next year, frustrating job seekers and policymakers alike.
Nvidia Pays Price of Lofty Expectations, Stoking Fear for Rivals
Nvidia Corp.’s earnings report needed to be perfect for a stock that’s added nearly $2 trillion in market value in the past year. In the end, a broad beat still sparked a selloff.
With AI Story Intact and Rate Cuts Imminent, Markets Turn Higher
Nvidia Corp.’s earnings report was impressive by virtually any metric — except its own recent history.
Nvidia Tumbles After Disappointing Forecast, Blackwell Chip Snags
Nvidia Corp. failed to live up to investor hopes with its latest results on Wednesday, delivering an underwhelming forecast and news of production snags with its much-awaited Blackwell chips.
Big Tech Dominance Is Forcing Index Superpowers to Rethink Rules
The Big Tech boom is causing headaches for all-powerful index providers on Wall Street, who can send billions of benchmark-tracking dollars on the move with just a stroke of the pen.
Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Tops $1 Trillion in Market Value
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. became the first US company outside of the tech sector to surpass $1 trillion in market value.
Think Outside the Box When Looking to Boost Morale, Motivation
Try a combination of things to get people energized. Often once people do engage, they find themselves enjoying it!
Nvidia’s Earnings Will Test the S&P 500’s $4 Trillion Recovery
The almost $3 trillion rally in Nvidia Corp. shares over the roughly two years since ChatGPT’s unveiling has virtually rewired the US stock market, giving the artificial intelligence chipmaking giant an outsized influence on a bevy of equity indexes.
So Why Don’t You Own It?
Portfolio managers should always have good explanations for their underweight positions. These days, it matters more than ever.
Emotional Markets Go in Both Directions
After a downward slide at the end of July and beginning of August, markets are attempting to recover losses. Through Friday, the S&P 500 experienced seven consecutive “up” days. Three of these up days qualified as “outlier” days (more than +/-1.50%).
Talking ETFs with Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas
Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas discusses his top ETF stories, industry “white space”, crypto ETFs, and much more. VettaFi’s Cinthia Murphy offers perspective on the future of ARK Invest and Cathie Wood.
AI, Natural Gas & Midstream’s Emerging Opportunities
Midstream’s second quarter earnings calls reinforced the positive outlook for US natural gas demand driven in part by expected power demand from data centers. This note discusses the advantages of natural gas for data centers, additional factors contributing to demand growth, and how midstream is uniquely positioned to benefit from these trends.
Multi-Asset Income
Improve your income potential with a tactical, unconstrained strategy that sources opportunities across geographies and asset classes. BlackRock Multi-Asset Income Fund takes a risk-first approach while seeking to deliver a consistently attractive yield.
Will the AI Revolution Lead to Greater Prosperity?
Artificial intelligence has the potential to reshape our economies, labor markets, societies, and politics. But despite the rosy forecasts of an AI-driven boom, history shows that technological advances rarely lead to immediate improvements in living standards and often lead to profound disruption.
Bridging the AI Confidence Gap Between the C-Suite and Advisors
The potential of AI in wealth management is undeniable, but realizing that potential requires more than just adopting the latest technology. By engaging advisors in the process, providing thorough training, and setting realistic expectations, firms can bridge the gap between C-suite optimism and frontline reality.
Successful Change Needs Buy-In from Staff, Clients
To make an organizational change effort stick, you have to start with the people, not with KPIs or quotas. If you want to move your firm to a client-centric model, you need to consider influencing factors such as your organizational structure and culture...
Market Decline Over As Investors Buy The Dip
The market’s 8.5% decline during August sent shockwaves through the media and investors. The drop raised concerns about whether this was the start of a larger correction or a temporary pullback. However, a powerful reversal, driven by investor buying and corporate share repurchases, halted the decline, leading many to wonder if the worst is behind us.
How Price Controls Could Harm the U.S. Economy Under a President Harris
This week, before she accepted the Democratic Party’s nomination for president, Vice President Kamala Harris threw her support behind President Joe Biden’s tax proposals for 2025, which include a steep 44.6% capital gains rate and an unprecedented 25% tax on unrealized gains.
AI Giants Can Learn a Thing or Two From Mark Zuckerberg
Mark Zuckerberg may have a history of copying of others’ ideas, but when it comes to navigating the generative AI hype cycle, he’s the one forging a smarter path.
Durable Goods Orders: July 2024
New orders for manufactured durable goods rose to $289.65B in July, the highest level since November. This represents a 9.9% increase from the previous month and better than the expected 4.0% growth. The series is up 1.3% year-over-year (YoY). If we exclude transportation, "core" durable goods were down 0.2% from the previous month and up 0.6% from one year ago.
Sector Views: Monthly Stock Sector Outlook
Our outlook on the 11 S&P 500 equity sectors.
Deep Value
Deep value stocks are currently our highest conviction long-only investment idea. For the avoidance of any doubt, when we talk about “deep value,” we simply mean stocks that are cheap, often screamingly so, relative to our appraisal of their fair value. We do not care about a “growth” or “value” label that has been assigned, sometimes seemingly arbitrarily, by one index provider or another.
Big Tech Dominance Is Forcing Index Superpowers to Rethink Rules
The Big Tech boom is causing headaches for all-powerful index providers on Wall Street, who can send billions of benchmark-tracking dollars on the move with just a stroke of the pen.
The Winds of Change Are Blowing: Why MBS Now?
With recent cooling in economic growth, an uptick in unemployment, inflation moderating back to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% target, and expectations for rate cuts, we believe the winds are shifting in the U.S. fixed income market.
Amid Solid Q2 Earnings, Volatility More About Sentiment Than Fundamentals
Robust U.S. stock momentum hit a slowdown in the third quarter, even as strong company earnings results rolled in. Fundamental Equities’ U.S. and Developed Markets CIO Carrie King weighs in on the incongruence with three reflections from Q2 earnings season.
Apple and Alphabet’s Freakish Earnings Broke This Market Barometer
One of the most widely followed gauges of the stock market, for decades a reliable indicator of future returns, has led investors astray in recent years. Its misdirection comes down to the freakish earnings growth of big technology companies such as Apple Inc. and Alphabet Inc.
Meta Shares Are Flying High as Zuckerberg Sells His AI Vision
Technology giants that want to spend big on artificial intelligence and stay in the good graces of investors should take a page out of Meta Platforms Inc.’s playbook.
EM Stocks Getting Cheaper as Investors Cool to Analyst Optimism
Emerging-market stocks are trading at the steepest discount to US equities since the Covid-19 panic in March 2020 as skittish investors look elsewhere for growth opportunities.
Tactical Rules Turn Bullish
Since our last update of the Three Tactical Rules on June 25, 2024, equity markets have retraced most of the rally from the spring. The change in market sentiment came abruptly, due to the labor market showing signs of weakness as the number of jobs available per unemployed worker fell to 1.2 and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The recent market volatility has had a dramatic impact on our tactical rules.
August 2024 Active Management Insights: Positive Outlook for Cyclical and Value-Oriented Stocks
Amid expectations of rate cuts from major central banks, managers are increasing their exposure to more cyclical and value-oriented names, including autos, transportation, and short-cycle industrials.
Transform Risk Into Opportunity
Many financial advisors exhibit a risk-averse attitude, leading to missed opportunities for growth and innovation.
Nvidia Eyes Return to Record as AI Spending Bonanza Continues
With questions swirling around Federal Reserve policy, the state of the economy and the US presidential race, at least one thing seems clear on Wall Street: spending on artificial intelligence remains a central priority.
In an AI Arms Race, Investors Should Focus on Profit Potential
As the AI halo begins to fade, equity investors are seeking companies that can profit from—and not just pontificate about—artificial intelligence.
Where Are the AI Revenues? A Look at Mega-Cap Tech Sales Multiples
Since the release of ChatGPT, mega-cap technology companies poised to profit from AI-enhanced software tools or cloud AI-model training capabilities have seen a surge in their stock prices. Yet, many have yet to realize significant AI-driven revenue growth, let alone a substantial impact on their bottom lines.
Amazon’s AI Spending Plans Keep Stock From Joining Tech Rebound
More than any of the megacap technology stocks, Amazon.com Inc.’s big spending ways are coming at the expense of profits, and its shares are being punished as a result.
What Past Fed Rate Cycles Can Tell Us
Looking back at the 14 Fed rate cycles since 1929, certain patterns emerge. Still, investors instead need to examine what factors are driving the Fed now.
The Fine Line Between Content Moderation and Censorship in the Digital Age
Silver is an important component of solar photovoltaic (PV) panels, meaning that for China to reach its ambitious climate targets, it must import massive amounts of the white metal. In June alone, China spent over $228 million on silver, a new monthly record based on Bloomberg data going back to 2009.
A Rebuttal to an Energy Transition “Realist”
Ethical Capital's Sloane Ortel marshals the data to counter the arguments against aggressively fighting climate change laid out in Larry Siegel's recent article.
As Tech Stocks Rebound, High Hedging Costs Indicate Skepticism
The recent rebound in US tech stocks isn’t convincing options traders just yet.
Schwab Market Perspective: Spinning
Markets were recently rattled by concerns the U.S. may slip into recession, but it's not clear that those fears are justified.
Oil’s AI Hedge Works, Just Don’t Mention a Recession
Earlier this year, around the time Nvidia Corp.’s market cap eclipsed that of the entire S&P 500 energy sector, I wrote about whether oil and gas stocks might offer a decent hedge when AI-fever breaks. The past several weeks have offered a test.
Latin America's Long-Term Potential
Portfolio Manager Jeremy Sutch, CFA, and Chief Investment Officer Sean Taylor assess the issues besetting the region’s key markets—from domestic challenges to geopolitical headwinds—as well as their structural strengths, and whether prospects may brighten with the onset of a U.S. rate-cutting cycle.
The Forgotten Style: What Ever Happened to Value?
Value has been in a protracted slump versus growth for years, but it’s been undergoing something of a makeover during that time.
What Panic? Stocks Are Quickly on Way Back to Record Highs
With US equities on the rebound, this summer’s selloff is looking more like a pause in the bull market than the beginning of its end.
Charts for the Beach 2024
Because there is unprecedented use of the word “unprecedented,” we thought it appropriate to expand our annual Charts for the Beach from 5 charts to 10 charts and tables this year. So, probably best to stay under the beach umbrella as you read our unprecedented extended edition.
Alphabet Shares Face Months of Uncertainty on New Breakup Risk
Alphabet Inc. investors are facing a long period of uncertainty as they grapple with a scenario they previously saw as unlikely: a possible breakup of Google.
Soros, Druckenmiller Pared Megacap Holdings Ahead of Summer Rout
George Soros and Stanley Druckenmiller’s investment firms trimmed their holdings in “Magnificent Seven” stocks before this year’s ebullient run-up in technology companies gave way to a major downturn in mid-July.
Buffett’s Apple Sale Brings Value Back to Quality Investing
Warren Buffett’s longtime business partner Charlie Munger brought quality to value investing. Now Buffett is bringing value to quality investing.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Activity Declines Slightly in August
Manufacturing activity declined slightly in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing August survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions was little changed at -4.7. The latest reading was better than the forecast of -5.9.
Sour Stock-Split Performances Amid a Possible Sequel to Last Year’s Pullback
This year, the bears have asserted themselves after the bulls controlled the first half. Shares of companies that recently announced stock splits are well off their highs, generally not benefiting from the historical trend of outperformance.
Can AI and Technology Stocks Keep on Keeping On? An Expert Take
Technology stocks led the market for much of this year, with AI euphoria in full effect. Recent cracks in the momentum caused some investors to question whether the enthusiasm has been exhausted. Technology investors and active stock pickers Tony Kim and Reid Menge offer answers ― and an optimistic outlook.
Disruptive Theme of the Week: Playing Defense
It's a good time to revisit which equity market sectors are defensive themes. Certain products are nondiscretionary we can't live without.
Some Growth Stocks Suddenly Attractively Valued
With the Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) lower, it might not yet be safe for investors to rush back to mega-cap growth stocks.