Tax policies touted in the US presidential election could have a big impact on S&P 500 earnings, according to Goldman Sachs Inc. strategists.
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the August 2024 close.
The S&P 500 real monthly averages of daily closes reached a new all-time high in July 2024. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical bull and bear market trends in market performance.
With the Q2 GDP second estimate and the August close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 194.9%, down from 197.4% the previous quarter.
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. On August 4, 2020, the 10-year Treasury yield hit its all-time low of 0.52%. As of August 31, it was 3.91%.
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $17,095 for an annualized real return of 10.77%.
Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 27.2 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 34.9.
The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. The latest Q-ratio is at 1.71, down from 1.77 in July.
Quick take: At the end of August, the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 164% above its long-term trend, down from July.
About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, over-performance turns into underperformance and vice versa. Is there a pattern to this movement? Let's apply some simple regression analysis to the question.
Valid until the market close on September 30, 2024
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
The S&P 500 capped off the month of August just below its record high, finishing up 0.24% from last Friday. The index is currently 0.33% off its record close from July 16th, 2024 and is now up 19.09% year-to-date.
The almost $3 trillion rally in Nvidia Corp. shares over the roughly two years since ChatGPT’s unveiling has virtually rewired the US stock market, giving the artificial intelligence chipmaking giant an outsized influence on a bevy of equity indexes.
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® hit a six-month high in August. The index rose to 103.3 this month from July's upwardly revised 101.9. This month's reading was better than expected, exceeding the 100.9 forecast.
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through July. The latest debt level is at $810.84 billion, its highest level since February 2022. Margin debt is up 0.2% month-over-month (MoM) and up 14.2% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, debt level is up 0.1% MoM and 11.0% YoY.
The S&P 500 posted a near-perfect week, with gains every day except Thursday.
Piper Sandler & Co. is eliminating its price target for the S&P 500 Index. Its Wall Street counterparts should follow suit.
Shares of the largest US companies are moving wildly out of sync, creating a sense of calm in the S&P 500 Index not seen in years. But it’s a different story when it comes to the rest of the market.
The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow), and Nasdaq Composite are all stock market indexes used to measure the performance of various aspects of the U.S. stock market. The indexes generally rise and fall together, however the extent of gains or losses produced by each can differ depending on market conditions and the state of the economy.
Risk of a recession is abating as the capital markets could see interest rate cuts this year with signs of cooling inflation.
VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth discussed the NEOS S&P 500 High Income ETF (SPYI) on this week’s “ETF of the Week” podcast with Chuck Jaffe of “Money Life.”
You will find it very difficult to find good value in stocks in a bull market like we’ve had since 2008. As Warren Buffett says – “You cannot invest in what’s popular and expect to do well.”
Are the Next Top 10 best performing S&P 500 stocks in 2023 good investments now in 2024?
Are the top 10 best performing S&P 500 stocks in 2023 good investments now in 2024?
While S&P 500 index-based ETFs were down 4% in April, they remained positive for the year. We believe as more institutional and retail investors turn to ETFs, these products will further swell in size.
An update on Model Portfolio Number 3 to see how it’s performed against the S&P 500. The portfolio was to get maximum income out of the portfolio but still try to deal with risk at the maximum extent possible.
The S&P 500 has been touching new highs after a rocky start to the first quarter of 2024, and is doing the same thing again at the start of Q2. While market corrections will happen invariably, it’s a reminder that traders can always take advantage of any short-term weakness.
On August 24, 2021, Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, a.k.a. Mr. Valuation, built three portfolios for dividend income with different objectives. In this video, Chuck will do an update on dividend Model Portfolio Number 2 to see how it’s performed.
In this video Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, a.k.a. Mr. Valuation is going to share a surefire method or strategy to beat the overvalued S&P 500 in both a total income basis as well as a total return basis.
My last blog was titled “A Start to Remember for the Markets”—and it’s a story that continues to play out as we move further into 2024. With March’s closing price, the S&P 500 is now up 10.16 percent on the year.
As the S&P 500 continues climbing, investors don't need to worry about a sudden drop, which bodes well for high-yielding dividend funds.
The markets these days have been especially sensitive to economic data, as any indication of weakness could mean rate cuts may finally be close. That, in effect, should also push the S&P 500 to even higher heights.
Investors have been basking in the sunlight of a year-end market rally in 2023 that appears to be continuing in 2024 after a slow start to January.
Just months after setting a 2024 target for the S&P 500 Index, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists have boosted their forecast for a second time, reflecting Wall Street’s optimistic outlook for earnings.
The S&P 500 Index blew past a series of troubling markers in its relentless rally to 5,000. Now, after Tuesday’s rout, investors are staring at a potentially long way down before they find support.
Of course, the market peaked in January 2022, just four months later, at 4796.56. Fast forward 2-full years of returning investors to breakeven, and the market is again approaching that magical round number of 5000.
A period of market volatility and consolidation is likely as markets have already priced in much of the economy's good news.
On this episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth discussed the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Technology ETF (RSPT) with Chuck Jaffe of “Money Life.” The pair talked about several topics regarding the fund to give investors a deeper understanding of the ETF overall.
The expectation of higher corporate earnings in 2024 could help prop up the actively managed NEOS S&P 500 High Income ETF (SPYI). Of course, capital markets are brimming with optimism, with the expectation of rate cuts to come.
While the S&P 500's all-time high hasn't been accompanied by other parts of the market (notably, small caps), further gains are possible if breadth firms up.
Options traders are betting on more gains in the S&P 500 Index after it hit a record high on Friday.
A sense of torpor that’s descended on Wall Street’s chief fear gauge since the fall is starting to disappear.
Nvidia Corp. is off to its strongest-ever start to a year by one measure, keeping up a blistering rally that saw shares gain nearly 240% in 2023.
Investors anticipating blockbuster profits in 2024 will be disappointed, according to Bloomberg’s latest Markets Live Pulse survey.
Just one month after setting a 2024 target for the S&P 500, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists increased their forecast as the year-end rally shows no signs of abating.
Even a slight pushback from the Federal Reserve on interest-rate cuts could unravel the relentless stock rally since late October.
The fate of the S&P 500 is increasingly resting on whether a handful of the biggest technology companies can parlay artificial intelligence investments into even higher profits.
Widely regarded as a barometer for the overall stock market, the S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest companies listed on U.S. stock exchanges.
Jeremy Grantham is a famous bubble hunter, quick to point out speculative excess on Wall Street and beyond.
Don’t look to US stocks for big gains next year — or for at least the next decade. That’s the bold take from Stifel Nicolaus & Co.’s Barry Bannister, one of a few Wall Street strategists who predicted the rally in the first half of 2023.
As a rush of Wall Street strategists call for all-time highs in US stocks in the year ahead, JPMorgan Chase & Co. stands apart, releasing the gloomiest forecast so far among its peers.
As I wrote this blog, the S&P 500 index is up roughly 17% year-to-date. Most likely, your portfolio isn’t. This is a common frustration among many investors in the market this year in particular.
The bond market giveth and the bond market taketh away. The S&P 500 Index closed in the red Thursday, blowing its widely-hyped chance at a nine-day winning streak, which would have been its best run since 2004.
In this article, using data from LOGICLY, we will look at some of VanEck’s gold-related ETFs to see how the fund’s performance benefitted from the recent rally and look at how the funds have performed against the S&P 500 in the short-term and long-term.
Geopolitical factors and higher-for-longer interest rates have taken the steam out of 2023’s equities rally the past few months. But the recent rate pause could clear the path for gains in the S&P 500 for the remainder of the year.
Dividends play an important role in generating equity total return. Since 1926, dividends have contributed approximately 32% of total return for the S&P 500, while capital appreciations have contributed 68%. Therefore, sustainable dividend income and capital appreciation potential are important factors for total return expectations. The S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats index exhibits both capital growth and dividend income characteristics, as opposed to alternative income strategies that may be pure yield or pure capital-appreciation oriented.
The S&P 500 Index’s best week in a year has brought the broad equities benchmark to a decisive point where stocks can make a significant break higher or find their gains capped.
The S&P 500’s pitch is simple. Own it and get exposure to the biggest of the big among US firms. Lately, it’s gotten harder to maintain that point of distinction.
A Federal Reserve pause, seasonal tailwinds, an earnings-led rally. Many of the reasons that got Wall Street strategists increasingly bullish coming into the end of the year now look like wishful thinking.
The rout in US stocks has brought the S&P 500 Index to a crucial inflection point. It’s teetering near a correction after breaching 4,200 for the first time since May — a key technical level that may point to a longer-term selloff.
The latest Underlying Inflation Gauge full data set for September is 2.9%, down 0.1% from last month, while the prices-only measure is 2.2%, down 0.2% from last month. Current Headline CPI is now 3.7% and Core CPI is 4.2%.
The fate of stock options with a face value of trillions of dollars is being influenced by unusual trading activity in the S&P 500 outside regular market hours, new research has found.
US stocks continued their slog through the end of summer, but the S&P 500 Index just notched a resiliency milestone not seen in five years.
Stocks are up 18.7% year-to-date, which is good news for portfolios and 401(k)s, but did you know that most of the heavy lifting has been done by a very small number of S&P 500 stocks?
Surprised that the S&P 500 swung into the green Friday? Don’t worry. Just wait. It’ll fall again after the next opening bell.
Look closely at the contours of Tuesday’s tumble in the S&P 500 and fingerprints of a new market force come into focus.
Is unlimited paid time off good for a company's stock price? Most investors think so, according to the latest Markets Live Pulse survey.
It could take just a 1% move in the S&P 500 — up or down — every day for a week for the rally in US stocks to come under significant pressure.
Investors often conclude that they would have performed better by simply investing in the S&P 500 index rather than a well-diversified portfolio.
Bitcoin trading volume tumbled last month amid waning volatility and little notable price swings in a market that speculators traditionally gravitate to for its turbulence.
While US stocks may pull back in coming weeks amid concern over Federal Reserve policy, the S&P 500 will reassert itself around September before climbing to an all-time high, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s trading desk.
There’s a shift in tone happening across Wall Street.
With the Federal Reserve nearing the end of its most disruptive monetary-tightening campaign in a generation, a softening US dollar is poised to boost profit growth for nearly half of the companies in the S&P 500 Index over the next year.
With the S&P 500 up 25% in nine months and sitting at its best level since April 2022, people want to know: is an all-time high next? John Flood, a partner at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., thinks so.
There's more pain on the way for the S&P 500 as profit warnings and fears of higher interest rates combine to threaten the key US stock indicator, according to the latest Markets Live Pulse survey.
VettaFi’s vice chairman Tom Lydon discussed the NEOS S&P 500 High Income ETF (SPYI) on this week’s “ETF of the Week” podcast with Chuck Jaffe of “Money Life.”
With over 20 years of live performance, the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index’s history enables long-term comparisons to other indices and actively managed funds. The relative performance of the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index offers insightful perspectives on the drivers of performance in—and the value added or subtracted by—actively managed U.S. equity funds. Despite sharing a similar pattern of excess returns, very few active funds were able to match the index’s returns over the past two decades.
The artificial intelligence boom is handing a big win to hedge funds angling for an edge.
Some previously steadfast bears are showing signs of giving in after a seven-month advance put the S&P 500 on the edge of a key chart line.
A new exchange-traded fund is making the case that having women at the top of corporations translates into better returns.
Surging bond yields have been rattling investors for a year. Why they’re a problem for people hooked on an asset as volatile as equities can be seen by juxtaposing stocks with some of the safest securities in the world.
The popping of the bubble in US stocks is far from over and investors shouldn’t get too excited about a strong start to the year for the market, warns Jeremy Grantham, the co-founder and long-term investment strategist of GMO.
Emerging-market stocks extended their lead over US shares in the early days of the new year, with the equity benchmark rising to a six-month high against the S&P 500 Index.
Broad-market exposure meets sustainability. The S&P 500 ESG Index is a market-cap-weighted index that is designed to measure the performance of securities meeting sustainability criteria, while maintaining similar overall industry group weights as the S&P 500. Intentionally broad—including over 300 of the original S&P 500 companies—the index seeks to reflect many of the attributes of the S&P 500 itself, while providing an improved sustainability profile.
Recently, Bank of America discussed the “5-Lessons From The Nifty Fifty.”
At a time when virtually all of Wall Street is on guard against a recession, Jim Paulsen of The Leuthold Group said stocks are about to rally at least 25% in the next year.
“Web1” represents static websites, and “Web2” represents the shift in the delivery of the internet to user-centric, dynamic web offerings and platforms.
Equity investors are not being adequately compensated for the economic, geopolitical and financial risks they are bearing. The equity risk premium is too small.
A yield curve inversion, when rates for two-year US Treasury notes rise above those for 10-year notes, has preceded every recession since the 1960s. The first clear inversion in 15 years happened in July 2022, although there were brief and shallow inversions in August 2019 and April 2022.
Markets may continue to see volatility in 2023 as they navigate between global economic growth and inflation fears, with central banks' decreasing rate hikes and China's reopening.
S&P 500
S&P 500 Earnings Hinge on Trump, Harris Tax Plans, Goldman Says
Tax policies touted in the US presidential election could have a big impact on S&P 500 earnings, according to Goldman Sachs Inc. strategists.
The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since Their 2000 Highs
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the August 2024 close.
Secular Market Trends: Bull and Bear Markets
The S&P 500 real monthly averages of daily closes reached a new all-time high in July 2024. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical bull and bear market trends in market performance.
Buffett Valuation Indicator: August 2024
With the Q2 GDP second estimate and the August close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 194.9%, down from 197.4% the previous quarter.
Market Valuation, Inflation and Treasury Yields - August 2024
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. On August 4, 2020, the 10-year Treasury yield hit its all-time low of 0.52%. As of August 31, it was 3.91%.
The Total Return Roller Coaster
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $17,095 for an annualized real return of 10.77%.
Market Valuation: Is the Market Still Overvalued?
Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.
P/E10 and Market Valuation: August 2024
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 27.2 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 34.9.
Q-Ratio and Market Valuation: August 2024
The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. The latest Q-ratio is at 1.71, down from 1.77 in July.
Regression to Trend: S&P Composite 164% Above Trend in August
Quick take: At the end of August, the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 164% above its long-term trend, down from July.
About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, over-performance turns into underperformance and vice versa. Is there a pattern to this movement? Let's apply some simple regression analysis to the question.
Moving Averages: S&P Finishes August 2024 Up 2.3%
Valid until the market close on September 30, 2024
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
S&P 500 Snapshot: August Ends Just Below Record High
The S&P 500 capped off the month of August just below its record high, finishing up 0.24% from last Friday. The index is currently 0.33% off its record close from July 16th, 2024 and is now up 19.09% year-to-date.
Nvidia’s Earnings Will Test the S&P 500’s $4 Trillion Recovery
The almost $3 trillion rally in Nvidia Corp. shares over the roughly two years since ChatGPT’s unveiling has virtually rewired the US stock market, giving the artificial intelligence chipmaking giant an outsized influence on a bevy of equity indexes.
Consumer Confidence Hits 6-Month High in August
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® hit a six-month high in August. The index rose to 103.3 this month from July's upwardly revised 101.9. This month's reading was better than expected, exceeding the 100.9 forecast.
Margin Debt Up 0.2% in July; Highest Since February 2022
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through July. The latest debt level is at $810.84 billion, its highest level since February 2022. Margin debt is up 0.2% month-over-month (MoM) and up 14.2% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, debt level is up 0.1% MoM and 11.0% YoY.
S&P 500 Snapshot: A Near-Perfect Week
The S&P 500 posted a near-perfect week, with gains every day except Thursday.
Market Strategists Thankfully Abandon S&P 500 Targets
Piper Sandler & Co. is eliminating its price target for the S&P 500 Index. Its Wall Street counterparts should follow suit.
Big Names in S&P 500 Overshadow the Risk of a Volatility Jump
Shares of the largest US companies are moving wildly out of sync, creating a sense of calm in the S&P 500 Index not seen in years. But it’s a different story when it comes to the rest of the market.
The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since Their 2000 Highs
The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow), and Nasdaq Composite are all stock market indexes used to measure the performance of various aspects of the U.S. stock market. The indexes generally rise and fall together, however the extent of gains or losses produced by each can differ depending on market conditions and the state of the economy.
As Recession Risk Abates, Get S&P 500 Income Exposure
Risk of a recession is abating as the capital markets could see interest rate cuts this year with signs of cooling inflation.
NEOS S&P 500 High Income ETF (SPYI)
VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth discussed the NEOS S&P 500 High Income ETF (SPYI) on this week’s “ETF of the Week” podcast with Chuck Jaffe of “Money Life.”
The 10 Worst Performing S&P 500 Stocks in 2023
You will find it very difficult to find good value in stocks in a bull market like we’ve had since 2008. As Warren Buffett says – “You cannot invest in what’s popular and expect to do well.”
NEXT 10 Best Performing S&P 500 Stocks in 2023
Are the Next Top 10 best performing S&P 500 stocks in 2023 good investments now in 2024?
10 Best Performing S&P 500 Stocks in 2023-Should You Buy Them?
Are the top 10 best performing S&P 500 stocks in 2023 good investments now in 2024?
What’s Driving S&P 500 ETFs in 2024?
While S&P 500 index-based ETFs were down 4% in April, they remained positive for the year. We believe as more institutional and retail investors turn to ETFs, these products will further swell in size.
Update Model Portfolio No. 3 That Beat The Overvalued S&P 500 (Part 3 of 3)
An update on Model Portfolio Number 3 to see how it’s performed against the S&P 500. The portfolio was to get maximum income out of the portfolio but still try to deal with risk at the maximum extent possible.
Rough Q2 Start Puts Bearish S&P 500 ETF in Play
The S&P 500 has been touching new highs after a rocky start to the first quarter of 2024, and is doing the same thing again at the start of Q2. While market corrections will happen invariably, it’s a reminder that traders can always take advantage of any short-term weakness.
Update Model Portfolio No. 2 That Beat The Overvalued S&P 500 (Part 2 of 3)
On August 24, 2021, Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, a.k.a. Mr. Valuation, built three portfolios for dividend income with different objectives. In this video, Chuck will do an update on dividend Model Portfolio Number 2 to see how it’s performed.
Secret Recipe That Beat The Overvalued S&P 500 – Update Model Portfolio 1 – (Part 1 of 3)
In this video Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, a.k.a. Mr. Valuation is going to share a surefire method or strategy to beat the overvalued S&P 500 in both a total income basis as well as a total return basis.
Continued Momentum for the S&P 500?
My last blog was titled “A Start to Remember for the Markets”—and it’s a story that continues to play out as we move further into 2024. With March’s closing price, the S&P 500 is now up 10.16 percent on the year.
Past S&P 500 Performance Bodes Well for This Dividend ETF
As the S&P 500 continues climbing, investors don't need to worry about a sudden drop, which bodes well for high-yielding dividend funds.
Increased Jobless Claims Could Fuel Rate Cuts & S&P 500
The markets these days have been especially sensitive to economic data, as any indication of weakness could mean rate cuts may finally be close. That, in effect, should also push the S&P 500 to even higher heights.
Volatility Spikes Offer Inverse Play on S&P 500
Investors have been basking in the sunlight of a year-end market rally in 2023 that appears to be continuing in 2024 after a slow start to January.
Goldman Lifts S&P 500 Target With Profit Optimism to Drive Rally
Just months after setting a 2024 target for the S&P 500 Index, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists have boosted their forecast for a second time, reflecting Wall Street’s optimistic outlook for earnings.
Stock Momentum Slams Into a Wall in S&P 500’s Worst CPI Day In Years
The S&P 500 Index blew past a series of troubling markers in its relentless rally to 5,000. Now, after Tuesday’s rout, investors are staring at a potentially long way down before they find support.
S&P Index Set To Hit 5000 As Bull Run Continues
Of course, the market peaked in January 2022, just four months later, at 4796.56. Fast forward 2-full years of returning investors to breakeven, and the market is again approaching that magical round number of 5000.
Record Highs for S&P 500 Spotlight January Market Activity
A period of market volatility and consolidation is likely as markets have already priced in much of the economy's good news.
Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Technology ETF (RSPT)
On this episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth discussed the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Technology ETF (RSPT) with Chuck Jaffe of “Money Life.” The pair talked about several topics regarding the fund to give investors a deeper understanding of the ETF overall.
Higher S&P 500 Earnings Could Benefit This Active ETF
The expectation of higher corporate earnings in 2024 could help prop up the actively managed NEOS S&P 500 High Income ETF (SPYI). Of course, capital markets are brimming with optimism, with the expectation of rate cuts to come.
Back in Black: S&P 500 Hits All-Time High
While the S&P 500's all-time high hasn't been accompanied by other parts of the market (notably, small caps), further gains are possible if breadth firms up.
Shift in Key Options Bet Suggests S&P 500 Can Rally Even Further
Options traders are betting on more gains in the S&P 500 Index after it hit a record high on Friday.
S&P 500 Wobble Pushes ‘Fear Gauge’ to Highest Since November
A sense of torpor that’s descended on Wall Street’s chief fear gauge since the fall is starting to disappear.
Nvidia’s Red-Hot 2024 Start a Bright Spot as S&P 500 Eyes Record
Nvidia Corp. is off to its strongest-ever start to a year by one measure, keeping up a blistering rally that saw shares gain nearly 240% in 2023.
S&P 500 Record-Profit Outlook Is Too Optimistic, Survey Shows
Investors anticipating blockbuster profits in 2024 will be disappointed, according to Bloomberg’s latest Markets Live Pulse survey.
Goldman Strategists Lift S&P 500 Forecast a Month After Setting It
Just one month after setting a 2024 target for the S&P 500, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists increased their forecast as the year-end rally shows no signs of abating.
Sell S&P 500 in ‘Every Scenario’ Looms as Rally Is Overheating
Even a slight pushback from the Federal Reserve on interest-rate cuts could unravel the relentless stock rally since late October.
Big Tech’s Ability to Deliver on AI Profits Looms Over S&P 500
The fate of the S&P 500 is increasingly resting on whether a handful of the biggest technology companies can parlay artificial intelligence investments into even higher profits.
S&P 500 Index
Widely regarded as a barometer for the overall stock market, the S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest companies listed on U.S. stock exchanges.
GMO’s $8 Billion Fund Beats S&P 500 Even Without Nvidia, Tesla
Jeremy Grantham is a famous bubble hunter, quick to point out speculative excess on Wall Street and beyond.
Stifel Sees S&P 500 Delivering Little Returns Into Early 2030s
Don’t look to US stocks for big gains next year — or for at least the next decade. That’s the bold take from Stifel Nicolaus & Co.’s Barry Bannister, one of a few Wall Street strategists who predicted the rally in the first half of 2023.
JPMorgan’s S&P 500 Outlook for 2024 Is Grimmest on Wall Street
As a rush of Wall Street strategists call for all-time highs in US stocks in the year ahead, JPMorgan Chase & Co. stands apart, releasing the gloomiest forecast so far among its peers.
S&P 500 Market Returns And Why Your Performance Is Worse
As I wrote this blog, the S&P 500 index is up roughly 17% year-to-date. Most likely, your portfolio isn’t. This is a common frustration among many investors in the market this year in particular.
S&P 500’s Busted Winning Streak Was a Mirage Anyway
The bond market giveth and the bond market taketh away. The S&P 500 Index closed in the red Thursday, blowing its widely-hyped chance at a nine-day winning streak, which would have been its best run since 2004.
Gold-Related ETFs Are Outperforming the S&P 500
In this article, using data from LOGICLY, we will look at some of VanEck’s gold-related ETFs to see how the fund’s performance benefitted from the recent rally and look at how the funds have performed against the S&P 500 in the short-term and long-term.
Fed Rate Pause Could Clear Path for Further S&P 500 Gains
Geopolitical factors and higher-for-longer interest rates have taken the steam out of 2023’s equities rally the past few months. But the recent rate pause could clear the path for gains in the S&P 500 for the remainder of the year.
S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats: The Importance of Stable Dividend Income
Dividends play an important role in generating equity total return. Since 1926, dividends have contributed approximately 32% of total return for the S&P 500, while capital appreciations have contributed 68%. Therefore, sustainable dividend income and capital appreciation potential are important factors for total return expectations. The S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats index exhibits both capital growth and dividend income characteristics, as opposed to alternative income strategies that may be pure yield or pure capital-appreciation oriented.
S&P 500 Nears Its Next Roadblock After the Best Week in a Year
The S&P 500 Index’s best week in a year has brought the broad equities benchmark to a decisive point where stocks can make a significant break higher or find their gains capped.
Winner-Take-All Rally Spurs Big Distortion Among S&P 500 Members
The S&P 500’s pitch is simple. Own it and get exposure to the biggest of the big among US firms. Lately, it’s gotten harder to maintain that point of distinction.
Wall Street Cuts S&P 500 Expectations as Geopolitical Risk Rises
A Federal Reserve pause, seasonal tailwinds, an earnings-led rally. Many of the reasons that got Wall Street strategists increasingly bullish coming into the end of the year now look like wishful thinking.
S&P 500 Teeters on Brink of Correction as Technicals Break Down
The rout in US stocks has brought the S&P 500 Index to a crucial inflection point. It’s teetering near a correction after breaching 4,200 for the first time since May — a key technical level that may point to a longer-term selloff.
Underlying Inflation Gauge Falls for 15th Straight Month
The latest Underlying Inflation Gauge full data set for September is 2.9%, down 0.1% from last month, while the prices-only measure is 2.2%, down 0.2% from last month. Current Headline CPI is now 3.7% and Core CPI is 4.2%.
S&P 500 Options Quirk Mints Billions, Stirring Manipulation Talk
The fate of stock options with a face value of trillions of dollars is being influenced by unusual trading activity in the S&P 500 outside regular market hours, new research has found.
S&P 500 Marks 100 Days Without 1.5% Drop, First Time Since 2018
US stocks continued their slog through the end of summer, but the S&P 500 Index just notched a resiliency milestone not seen in five years.
Is It Time For Investors To Consider Sector Rotation Amid A Tech-Heavy S&P 500?
Stocks are up 18.7% year-to-date, which is good news for portfolios and 401(k)s, but did you know that most of the heavy lifting has been done by a very small number of S&P 500 stocks?
Traders Have S&P 500 Comebacks Fading at Historic Pace
Surprised that the S&P 500 swung into the green Friday? Don’t worry. Just wait. It’ll fall again after the next opening bell.
Goldman Sachs Blames Zero-Day Options for Fueling S&P 500 Selloff
Look closely at the contours of Tuesday’s tumble in the S&P 500 and fingerprints of a new market force come into focus.
Companies That Offer Unlimited Vacations Will Outperform S&P 500, Investors Say
Is unlimited paid time off good for a company's stock price? Most investors think so, according to the latest Markets Live Pulse survey.
A Week of 1% Moves on the S&P 500 Could Trigger Forced Selling
It could take just a 1% move in the S&P 500 — up or down — every day for a week for the rally in US stocks to come under significant pressure.
The Ups And Downs Of The S&P 500
Investors often conclude that they would have performed better by simply investing in the S&P 500 index rather than a well-diversified portfolio.
Bitcoin Turns Less Volatile Than S&P 500, Tech Stocks and Gold
Bitcoin trading volume tumbled last month amid waning volatility and little notable price swings in a market that speculators traditionally gravitate to for its turbulence.
JPMorgan’s Trading Desk Says Record S&P 500 ‘Feels Inevitable’
While US stocks may pull back in coming weeks amid concern over Federal Reserve policy, the S&P 500 will reassert itself around September before climbing to an all-time high, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s trading desk.
Strategists Scramble to Catch Up as S&P 500 Rally Rumbles On
There’s a shift in tone happening across Wall Street.
S&P 500 Profits Get a Lift From the Crack in King Dollar’s Reign
With the Federal Reserve nearing the end of its most disruptive monetary-tightening campaign in a generation, a softening US dollar is poised to boost profit growth for nearly half of the companies in the S&P 500 Index over the next year.
S&P 500 on Track to Hit Record High Before Year-End, Goldman's Flood Says
With the S&P 500 up 25% in nine months and sitting at its best level since April 2022, people want to know: is an all-time high next? John Flood, a partner at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., thinks so.
There’s More Pain Ahead for S&P 500 as Profit Warnings Loom, Investors Say
There's more pain on the way for the S&P 500 as profit warnings and fears of higher interest rates combine to threaten the key US stock indicator, according to the latest Markets Live Pulse survey.
ETF of the Week: NEOS S&P 500 High Income ETF (SPYI)
VettaFi’s vice chairman Tom Lydon discussed the NEOS S&P 500 High Income ETF (SPYI) on this week’s “ETF of the Week” podcast with Chuck Jaffe of “Money Life.”
More Equal than Others: 20 Years of the S&P 500® Equal Weight Index
With over 20 years of live performance, the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index’s history enables long-term comparisons to other indices and actively managed funds. The relative performance of the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index offers insightful perspectives on the drivers of performance in—and the value added or subtracted by—actively managed U.S. equity funds. Despite sharing a similar pattern of excess returns, very few active funds were able to match the index’s returns over the past two decades.
Goldman’s Hedge Fund ETF Is Crushing the S&P 500 With AI Bets
The artificial intelligence boom is handing a big win to hedge funds angling for an edge.
Hedge Funds Rush to Buy Stocks on S&P 500’s Momentum
Some previously steadfast bears are showing signs of giving in after a seven-month advance put the S&P 500 on the edge of a key chart line.
Fund of Women-Run Firms Is Beating the S&P 500 Since Launching
A new exchange-traded fund is making the case that having women at the top of corporations translates into better returns.
S&P 500 Haters Now Make Enough in Treasuries to Bid Stocks Farewell
Surging bond yields have been rattling investors for a year. Why they’re a problem for people hooked on an asset as volatile as equities can be seen by juxtaposing stocks with some of the safest securities in the world.
Jeremy Grantham Warns of a 17% Plunge in the S&P 500 This Year
The popping of the bubble in US stocks is far from over and investors shouldn’t get too excited about a strong start to the year for the market, warns Jeremy Grantham, the co-founder and long-term investment strategist of GMO.
Emerging-Market Stocks Rise to Six-Month High Versus S&P 500
Emerging-market stocks extended their lead over US shares in the early days of the new year, with the equity benchmark rising to a six-month high against the S&P 500 Index.
S&P 500 ESG Index: Defining the Sustainable Core
Broad-market exposure meets sustainability. The S&P 500 ESG Index is a market-cap-weighted index that is designed to measure the performance of securities meeting sustainability criteria, while maintaining similar overall industry group weights as the S&P 500. Intentionally broad—including over 300 of the original S&P 500 companies—the index seeks to reflect many of the attributes of the S&P 500 itself, while providing an improved sustainability profile.
Lessons From The “Nifty Fifty”
Recently, Bank of America discussed the “5-Lessons From The Nifty Fifty.”
Leuthold’s Paulsen Sees S&P 500 at 5,000 in New Bull Cycle
At a time when virtually all of Wall Street is on guard against a recession, Jim Paulsen of The Leuthold Group said stocks are about to rally at least 25% in the next year.
Read, Write, Own—How Web3 Can Restore Trust in Markets and Society
“Web1” represents static websites, and “Web2” represents the shift in the delivery of the internet to user-centric, dynamic web offerings and platforms.
Equity Investors Aren’t Being Paid for the Risks They Take
Equity investors are not being adequately compensated for the economic, geopolitical and financial risks they are bearing. The equity risk premium is too small.
What the Inverted Yield Curve Says About the Next Recession
A yield curve inversion, when rates for two-year US Treasury notes rise above those for 10-year notes, has preceded every recession since the 1960s. The first clear inversion in 15 years happened in July 2022, although there were brief and shallow inversions in August 2019 and April 2022.
Recovery and Risk
Markets may continue to see volatility in 2023 as they navigate between global economic growth and inflation fears, with central banks' decreasing rate hikes and China's reopening.