We are entering a time I think will include a deep crisis. We are going to need each other. We really do need to “find our tribe.”
In a recent discussion with Adam Taggart via Thoughtful Money, we quickly touched on the similarities between the U.S. and Japanese monetary policies around the 11-minute mark. However, that discussion warrants a deeper dive. As we will review, Japan has much to tell us about the future of the U.S. economically.
Despite pullbacks and elevated volatility in the earlier days of the month, major equity indices were up in August.
In this edition, Harold Evensky explores the challenges facing sustainable and active funds, the implications of the new DOL Fiduciary Rule, and the value of long-term performance projections. With candid observations and critical analysis--read on to gain perspective on navigating the complex world of investing, the importance of risk management, and the role of fiduciary advisors in securing your financial future.
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Director and Senior Investment Strategist Alex Cousley and ESG and Active Ownership Analyst Zoe Warganz discussed key takeaways from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
The August S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ fell to 47.9 in August from 49.6 in July, indicating a modest deterioration in business conditions for a second straight month. The latest reading was just below the forecasted reading of 48.0 and is the index's lowest level of the year.
As I write this, gold continues to trade above $2,500 an ounce after surging past the psychologically important level for the first time ever in mid-August. For seasoned gold mining investors, this should be a moment of validation. After all, the yellow metal has long been seen as the ultimate hedge against economic uncertainty.
China's economic transformation presents both challenges and opportunities for global markets.
Last week’s meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole was a kind of victory lap for the Fed. It may have also marked the peak of its power.
The level of U.S. Treasury yields and the changing shape of the Treasury yield curve provide investors with critical feedback regarding the market’s expectations for economic growth, inflation, and monetary policy
Midstream’s second quarter earnings calls reinforced the positive outlook for US natural gas demand driven in part by expected power demand from data centers. This note discusses the advantages of natural gas for data centers, additional factors contributing to demand growth, and how midstream is uniquely positioned to benefit from these trends.
This week, before she accepted the Democratic Party’s nomination for president, Vice President Kamala Harris threw her support behind President Joe Biden’s tax proposals for 2025, which include a steep 44.6% capital gains rate and an unprecedented 25% tax on unrealized gains.
Chair Jerome Powell said the time has come for the Federal Reserve to cut its key policy rate, affirming expectations that officials will begin lowering borrowing costs next month and making clear his intention to prevent further cooling in the labor market.
Since our last update of the Three Tactical Rules on June 25, 2024, equity markets have retraced most of the rally from the spring. The change in market sentiment came abruptly, due to the labor market showing signs of weakness as the number of jobs available per unemployed worker fell to 1.2 and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The recent market volatility has had a dramatic impact on our tactical rules.
With questions swirling around Federal Reserve policy, the state of the economy and the US presidential race, at least one thing seems clear on Wall Street: spending on artificial intelligence remains a central priority.
As the AI halo begins to fade, equity investors are seeking companies that can profit from—and not just pontificate about—artificial intelligence.
Ethical Capital's Sloane Ortel marshals the data to counter the arguments against aggressively fighting climate change laid out in Larry Siegel's recent article.
This year’s presentation by Chair Jerome Powell is eagerly awaited due to the economic fluidity and financial volatility that the US has been experiencing, and its spillovers to the rest of the world.
Powell will hint at normalizing monetary policy, but at a measured pace.
BlackRock Inc. says the market for blended finance has now reached a “turning point,” as it targets growth in deals that combine private and public funding.
When US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks at next week’s annual economic conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, people will be listening intently for any hint about what the central bank will do with interest rates at its September policy making meeting.
Alphabet Inc. investors are facing a long period of uncertainty as they grapple with a scenario they previously saw as unlikely: a possible breakup of Google.
Builder confidence fell further in August as a lack of affordability and buyer hesitation continue to slow down the market. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) dropped to 39 this month, its lowest level of the year. The latest reading came was below the forecast of 43.
The inflation numbers this week — both for producer and consumer prices — have served to reassure markets in two distinct ways: confirming continued progress in the battle against high price increases and supporting the ongoing shift in the Federal Reserve’s focus from its inflation mandate to its employment mandate.
It's a good time to revisit which equity market sectors are defensive themes. Certain products are nondiscretionary we can't live without.
A bid to break up Alphabet Inc.’s Google is one of the options being considered by the Justice Department after a landmark court ruling found that the company monopolized the online search market, according to people with knowledge of the deliberations.
The KraneShares Sustainable Ultra Short Duration Index ETF (KCSH) offers low risk income investing with notable yields and diversification.
The Jensen Quality Growth ETF is a high-conviction U.S. large-cap ETF with a growth tilt. The ETF’s investment approach is rooted in bottom-up fundamental analysis, focusing on quality companies that have demonstrated consistent performance and resilience over time.
Everybody loves a good comeback story: Seabiscuit. The Mighty Ducks. 493 stocks in the S&P 500 index.
Four interlinked principles form a compelling investment philosophy for uncovering promising growth companies.
The early August sell-off could represent just the market taking a breather after seven months of fantastic returns and could be right back on track, albeit with additional volatility.
Savvy advisors that blend classic prospecting methods with modern tech are not only reviving successful strategies from the past but are also setting the stage for sustainable future growth.
Andy Rothman provides four reasons why he’s stubbornly convinced that Xi Jinping will eventually overcome his stubbornness and make the changes necessary to put China back on track to reach its potential growth rate.
Economist Claudia Sahm developed the “Sahm Rule,” which states that the economy is in recession when the unemployment rate’s three-month average is a half percentage point above its 12-month low.
While strategy provides direction, a strong culture is the foundation that supports and sustains an organization’s success. Culture influences every aspect of an organization and defines the purpose and values that guide the actions of employees.
For a technology that promises to help businesses cut costs, artificial intelligence has had a big problem with being so costly.
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Investment Strategist BeiChen Lin and ESG and Active Ownership Analyst Zoe Warganz discussed key takeaways from recent central bank meetings. They also provided an update on how U.S. small cap companies are performing during second-quarter earnings season.
A recent mid-year strategist pulse check from Natixis revealed where strategists believe the top opportunities exist across markets.
De Leus and Gijsels, both originating in the world of institutional brokerage identify the five principal trends affecting investments in the near future. The two take turns writing chapters so that the book is a straight man/funnyman show, with the straight man providing mostly sound, conventional analysis and the funnyman interviewing dead economists and Fed chairmen not yet born.
With stock markets plunging around the world, traders are talking up the prospect of an emergency interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve after the US central bank passed up the opportunity to ease policy last week. Not only is this highly unlikely, it would be counterproductive.
Advisors and investors that want to try to outperform can still gain some diversification benefits using concentrated ETFs.
The central bank’s latest policy statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks suggest that an initial interest rate cut could come as soon as September.
Today’s passive index investing requires active choices, as customization and innovations in index funds have resulted in new considerations for investors and the potential for greater control.
Reasonable Treasury debt ratios and more than enough buyers put Treasuries in a much better light than is commonly heard.
Macro drivers mixed with market narratives last week to sustain the volatility cocktail being served in July
Unfortunately, investors have little else to work with given the table scraps of useful data being offered by the tech giants. None of the top companies have yet adequately spelled out the financial performance of AI adoption on their income statements.
Improving inflation and growth scenarios should enhance the equities and bond dynamic for multi-asset investors.
President Joe Biden’s withdrawal and endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris has sent shockwaves through the political establishment, and while former President Donald Trump remains the frontrunner, the wind has certainly shifted in Harris’s favor.
Yes, the market could continue to rotate massively from large-cap to small and mid-capitalization companies. However, given the current levels of bullish sentiment and allocations against a backdrop of weakening economic data and widening spreads, this suggests the current rotation may be nothing more than a significant short-covering rally.
Progress toward a goal usually isn’t linear. The first 50% isn’t too bad, the next 40% is harder, and the last 10% consumes most of the effort and resources. Business strategists call this the “last mile” problem… and it applies to inflation, too.
The Momentum factor picked up where it left off at the end of the first quarter, turning in another standout performance in the April-through-June timeframe and ending the second quarter as the factor most relevant to positive performance.
The small cap rally has primarily been a de-risking event. It's unclear at this point whether it’s just a blip or the beginning of a new trend in market leadership.
It's been another strong first half for the U.S. ETF industry, with overall flows set to challenge or surpass historic records.
For taxable investors, an appreciating portfolio can be a mixed blessing. But regular loss harvesting isn’t the only way to reduce your portfolio’s tax bill, especially as its value rises. We share some important tax-management techniques for the future.
The momentum we've seen in U.S. equity markets over the past year continued in the second quarter of 2024. With large technology stocks leading the wave, the S&P 500 index has risen 23% in the 12 months ended June 30.
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Director of Investment Strategies, Shailesh Kshatriya, discussed the recent strength in U.S. small cap stocks and the likelihood of a September rate cut from the Fed. He also provided an update on the latest inflation numbers from Canada and the UK.
Slower spending is a part of the return to normal economic conditions.
Looking for a rate-sensitive ETF for rate cuts? This strategy is performing well over the last several periods per YCharts even before cuts.
Issuance of green bonds surged in the first half of 2024. That could put more eyeballs on the VanEck Green Bond ETF (GRNB).
For more than two years, inflation has eclipsed everything else at the Federal Reserve. In a shift eagerly awaited by global markets, that’s poised to change.
As the U.S. evolved from a goods economy to a services economy, expansionary cycles more than doubled in length. But a recent resurgence in manufacturing may be taking us back to the future.
In the post-pandemic fiscal landscape, government debt trajectories may be volatile, but appear broadly sustainable.
At some of the world’s biggest asset managers, ESG fund launches are quietly stalling.
A transition to alternative energy is helping to fuel a 4th industrial revolution. In turn, this will increase critical minerals demand.
At Institutional Investor, keeper of Wall Street’s version of the Oscars for financial analysts, the winner in one category this year is — nobody.
The initiation of the excessive deficit procedure will hinder European unity.
Leveraging essential tools will energize teams, streamline operations, and drive growth. Financial advisors should actively promote education, training, networking, and personal development to foster a net wealth-supporting environment.
We want to repeat what we have said in the past: “One data point doesn’t a trend make.” However, the June data, after weaker than expected readings for April and May, confirm our suspicion that inflation numbers during the first quarter of the year were a fluke.
Softening inflation supports the potential for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in coming months, but there are complexities below the surface.
Thursday’s wildly encouraging consumer price index report shows that the Federal Reserve should be cutting policy rates at its meeting later this month. Unfortunately, they’ll probably keep us waiting until September.
Trust is a precious commodity and the importance of authenticity cannot be overstated. Whether in healthcare, education, or business, being genuine and transparent is essential for building strong, lasting relationships. However, nowhere is this truer than in the financial advisory industry.
AI and automation will revolutionize the financial advisory industry. These technologies enhance efficiency, improve client communication, and enable data-driven decision-making. By 2035, AI will be integral to most advisory firms.
Almost every industry could ultimately incorporate AI, leaving a puzzle for investors seeking exposure. Using the internet as an example may provide some breadcrumbs.
What should equity investors look for to find companies with strong economic profits, backed by clear business advantages?
If the companies that derive revenue from products and services that help reduce carbon emissions were taken as a single industry group, they would have had the second-best financial performance of any equity sector over the past decade.
The oil company declared its traditional business was all but over. “The demand for fossil oil products will continue to decline,” it said in late 2020 as the pandemic slashed consumption. Even when Covid-19 is over, consumption wouldn’t “recover to previous levels.”
The bond trade that some of Wall Street’s biggest banks say will dominate the rest of 2024 is gaining steam before a crucial inflation reading that will help seal the wager’s fate.
Wall Street analysts continue significantly lowering the earnings bar as we enter the Q2 reporting period. Even as analysts lower that earnings bar, stocks have rallied sharply over the last few months.
Philanthropy is not a substitute for government action in areas like health, education, and the distribution of income and wealth, but it can advance public goods and improve human well-being. The key is to design institutions that deliver the reputational benefits that donors crave.
Ongoing budget deficits linger amid the post-COVID economic recovery. While markets appear unconcerned now, the accumulation of debt may exhaust investor patience. Anxiety about the sustainability of the nation’s debt could escalate with the upcoming elections in November. In part one of our series, let’s look at fiscal policy and Treasury debt.
In 1539, 30 years after San Juan was founded, the Spanish began building defenses of its harbor on the northern shore of Puerto Rico. Construction continued for another 250 years. Now that’s a long time-horizon! The mammoth fort known as Castillo San Felipe del Morro (or “El Morro”) is still standing.
Unlocking your practice's full potential involves strategic planning and a comprehensive understanding of these critical factors. Whether you’re planning an exit or aiming for growth, these insights will help you maximize your practice's value.
To protect your investments and ensure they retain their value over time, you must implement proactive strategies that combat the effects of inflation. In this article, we discuss seven strategies to help shield your investments from inflation’s impact.
The Generation X report released by Natixis Investment Managers included a check of investment sentiment and opportunities for advisors.
We review the key themes of the first half of a busy year.
The giant federal debt we’ve been talking about isn’t just borrowed money. It is also lent money. Loans are two-party transactions. One side receives temporary use of cash which it agrees to repay with interest. The other gives up the current use of that cash in exchange for receiving interest. Ideally, it works out for both… but not always.
Initial rate cuts by the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada may signal a transformative trend toward monetary easing.
A richer dialogue between human experts and large language models may improve outcomes.
FedEx Corp. dropped a bomb on the market Tuesday afternoon with the announcement that it will do an “assessment” of its freight unit. Investors seemed to like the move, pushing up the shares as much as 15%, on the possibility of a windfall and a more pure-play package delivery and logistics company.
After years of insufficient investment and sagging productivity in the UK, the Labour Party recognizes that achieving high-quality growth will require a comprehensive policy approach that builds on many intermediate objectives. But devising a strategy is only the first step; the real challenge lies in implementation.
Sustainable Investing
The Time Has Come
We are entering a time I think will include a deep crisis. We are going to need each other. We really do need to “find our tribe.”
Japanese Style Policies And The Future Of America
In a recent discussion with Adam Taggart via Thoughtful Money, we quickly touched on the similarities between the U.S. and Japanese monetary policies around the 11-minute mark. However, that discussion warrants a deeper dive. As we will review, Japan has much to tell us about the future of the U.S. economically.
Fed Rate Cuts Give Higher Probability of the Great Rotation Occurring
Despite pullbacks and elevated volatility in the earlier days of the month, major equity indices were up in August.
Navigating the Investment Landscape: Insights and Warnings
In this edition, Harold Evensky explores the challenges facing sustainable and active funds, the implications of the new DOL Fiduciary Rule, and the value of long-term performance projections. With candid observations and critical analysis--read on to gain perspective on navigating the complex world of investing, the importance of risk management, and the role of fiduciary advisors in securing your financial future.
Key Highlights From Q2 Earnings Season Around the Globe
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Director and Senior Investment Strategist Alex Cousley and ESG and Active Ownership Analyst Zoe Warganz discussed key takeaways from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Lowest Level of 2024
The August S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ fell to 47.9 in August from 49.6 in July, indicating a modest deterioration in business conditions for a second straight month. The latest reading was just below the forecasted reading of 48.0 and is the index's lowest level of the year.
Why Gold Stocks Could Be a Contrarian Investor’s Dream Right Now
As I write this, gold continues to trade above $2,500 an ounce after surging past the psychologically important level for the first time ever in mid-August. For seasoned gold mining investors, this should be a moment of validation. After all, the yellow metal has long been seen as the ultimate hedge against economic uncertainty.
China's Growth Evolution: Opportunities and Challenges for the Global Economy
China's economic transformation presents both challenges and opportunities for global markets.
The Fed Is No Longer the Only Game in Town
Last week’s meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole was a kind of victory lap for the Fed. It may have also marked the peak of its power.
Yield Curve Shifts Offer Signals for Stockholders
The level of U.S. Treasury yields and the changing shape of the Treasury yield curve provide investors with critical feedback regarding the market’s expectations for economic growth, inflation, and monetary policy
AI, Natural Gas & Midstream’s Emerging Opportunities
Midstream’s second quarter earnings calls reinforced the positive outlook for US natural gas demand driven in part by expected power demand from data centers. This note discusses the advantages of natural gas for data centers, additional factors contributing to demand growth, and how midstream is uniquely positioned to benefit from these trends.
How Price Controls Could Harm the U.S. Economy Under a President Harris
This week, before she accepted the Democratic Party’s nomination for president, Vice President Kamala Harris threw her support behind President Joe Biden’s tax proposals for 2025, which include a steep 44.6% capital gains rate and an unprecedented 25% tax on unrealized gains.
Powell Says ‘Time Has Come’ for Fed to Cut Interest Rates
Chair Jerome Powell said the time has come for the Federal Reserve to cut its key policy rate, affirming expectations that officials will begin lowering borrowing costs next month and making clear his intention to prevent further cooling in the labor market.
Tactical Rules Turn Bullish
Since our last update of the Three Tactical Rules on June 25, 2024, equity markets have retraced most of the rally from the spring. The change in market sentiment came abruptly, due to the labor market showing signs of weakness as the number of jobs available per unemployed worker fell to 1.2 and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The recent market volatility has had a dramatic impact on our tactical rules.
Nvidia Eyes Return to Record as AI Spending Bonanza Continues
With questions swirling around Federal Reserve policy, the state of the economy and the US presidential race, at least one thing seems clear on Wall Street: spending on artificial intelligence remains a central priority.
In an AI Arms Race, Investors Should Focus on Profit Potential
As the AI halo begins to fade, equity investors are seeking companies that can profit from—and not just pontificate about—artificial intelligence.
A Rebuttal to an Energy Transition “Realist”
Ethical Capital's Sloane Ortel marshals the data to counter the arguments against aggressively fighting climate change laid out in Larry Siegel's recent article.
The Stakes Are High for Powell and the Fed at Jackson Hole
This year’s presentation by Chair Jerome Powell is eagerly awaited due to the economic fluidity and financial volatility that the US has been experiencing, and its spillovers to the rest of the world.
A Script for Jackson Hole
Powell will hint at normalizing monetary policy, but at a measured pace.
BlackRock Says Blended Finance at ‘Turning Point’ as Deals Grow
BlackRock Inc. says the market for blended finance has now reached a “turning point,” as it targets growth in deals that combine private and public funding.
Five Big Questions for the Fed at Jackson Hole
When US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks at next week’s annual economic conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, people will be listening intently for any hint about what the central bank will do with interest rates at its September policy making meeting.
Alphabet Shares Face Months of Uncertainty on New Breakup Risk
Alphabet Inc. investors are facing a long period of uncertainty as they grapple with a scenario they previously saw as unlikely: a possible breakup of Google.
NAHB Housing Market Index: Builder Confidence Hits Lowest Level of the Year
Builder confidence fell further in August as a lack of affordability and buyer hesitation continue to slow down the market. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) dropped to 39 this month, its lowest level of the year. The latest reading came was below the forecast of 43.
The Market May Be Too Aggressive on Fed Rate Cuts
The inflation numbers this week — both for producer and consumer prices — have served to reassure markets in two distinct ways: confirming continued progress in the battle against high price increases and supporting the ongoing shift in the Federal Reserve’s focus from its inflation mandate to its employment mandate.
Disruptive Theme of the Week: Playing Defense
It's a good time to revisit which equity market sectors are defensive themes. Certain products are nondiscretionary we can't live without.
US Considers a Rare Antitrust Move: Breaking Up Google
A bid to break up Alphabet Inc.’s Google is one of the options being considered by the Justice Department after a landmark court ruling found that the company monopolized the online search market, according to people with knowledge of the deliberations.
Diversify Your Income Portfolio Without Sacrificing Yields
The KraneShares Sustainable Ultra Short Duration Index ETF (KCSH) offers low risk income investing with notable yields and diversification.
Jensen Investment Management Launches the Jensen Quality Growth ETF
The Jensen Quality Growth ETF is a high-conviction U.S. large-cap ETF with a growth tilt. The ETF’s investment approach is rooted in bottom-up fundamental analysis, focusing on quality companies that have demonstrated consistent performance and resilience over time.
The Comeback Kids
Everybody loves a good comeback story: Seabiscuit. The Mighty Ducks. 493 stocks in the S&P 500 index.
Lessons from Equity Investing with a Very Long Lens on Growth
Four interlinked principles form a compelling investment philosophy for uncovering promising growth companies.
The Windshield Is Bigger Than the Rearview Mirror for a Reason
The early August sell-off could represent just the market taking a breather after seven months of fantastic returns and could be right back on track, albeit with additional volatility.
Classic Rewind: How RIA Prospecting Tactics From the Past Are Making a Comeback
Savvy advisors that blend classic prospecting methods with modern tech are not only reviving successful strategies from the past but are also setting the stage for sustainable future growth.
Stubborn
Andy Rothman provides four reasons why he’s stubbornly convinced that Xi Jinping will eventually overcome his stubbornness and make the changes necessary to put China back on track to reach its potential growth rate.
The Sahm Rule, Employment, And Recession Indicators
Economist Claudia Sahm developed the “Sahm Rule,” which states that the economy is in recession when the unemployment rate’s three-month average is a half percentage point above its 12-month low.
Assessing Culture in the Evaluation of Investment Strategies
While strategy provides direction, a strong culture is the foundation that supports and sustains an organization’s success. Culture influences every aspect of an organization and defines the purpose and values that guide the actions of employees.
AI Is Getting Cheaper. That Won’t Fix Everything
For a technology that promises to help businesses cut costs, artificial intelligence has had a big problem with being so costly.
Fed Signals Rate Cuts Could Begin in September
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Investment Strategist BeiChen Lin and ESG and Active Ownership Analyst Zoe Warganz discussed key takeaways from recent central bank meetings. They also provided an update on how U.S. small cap companies are performing during second-quarter earnings season.
Where Strategists See Market Opportunities in Second Half
A recent mid-year strategist pulse check from Natixis revealed where strategists believe the top opportunities exist across markets.
A Straight Man and a Funnyman Explain the World Economy
De Leus and Gijsels, both originating in the world of institutional brokerage identify the five principal trends affecting investments in the near future. The two take turns writing chapters so that the book is a straight man/funnyman show, with the straight man providing mostly sound, conventional analysis and the funnyman interviewing dead economists and Fed chairmen not yet born.
An Emergency Fed Rate Cut Would Be A Mistake
With stock markets plunging around the world, traders are talking up the prospect of an emergency interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve after the US central bank passed up the opportunity to ease policy last week. Not only is this highly unlikely, it would be counterproductive.
Diving Into Concentrated Active Large Cap ETFs
Advisors and investors that want to try to outperform can still gain some diversification benefits using concentrated ETFs.
Fed Sets Stage for Rate Cuts Amid Growing Confidence on Inflation
The central bank’s latest policy statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks suggest that an initial interest rate cut could come as soon as September.
Index Investing as an Active Decision: Implications for Equity Investors
Today’s passive index investing requires active choices, as customization and innovations in index funds have resulted in new considerations for investors and the potential for greater control.
U.S. Treasuries and the Fiscal Situation
Reasonable Treasury debt ratios and more than enough buyers put Treasuries in a much better light than is commonly heard.
The Good and Evil Angels and Powell’s Shoulders
Macro drivers mixed with market narratives last week to sustain the volatility cocktail being served in July
Will Investors Get Good AI News This Week? Don’t Bet on It
Unfortunately, investors have little else to work with given the table scraps of useful data being offered by the tech giants. None of the top companies have yet adequately spelled out the financial performance of AI adoption on their income statements.
Multi-Asset Mid-Year Outlook Global Growth Picture Supports Risk Assets
Improving inflation and growth scenarios should enhance the equities and bond dynamic for multi-asset investors.
How 2024’S Election Could Reshape Your Portfolio
President Joe Biden’s withdrawal and endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris has sent shockwaves through the political establishment, and while former President Donald Trump remains the frontrunner, the wind has certainly shifted in Harris’s favor.
The Bull Market – Could It Just Be Getting Started?
Yes, the market could continue to rotate massively from large-cap to small and mid-capitalization companies. However, given the current levels of bullish sentiment and allocations against a backdrop of weakening economic data and widening spreads, this suggests the current rotation may be nothing more than a significant short-covering rally.
A Sticky Last Mile
Progress toward a goal usually isn’t linear. The first 50% isn’t too bad, the next 40% is harder, and the last 10% consumes most of the effort and resources. Business strategists call this the “last mile” problem… and it applies to inflation, too.
Q2 2024 Active Management Review: Momentum Keeps Rolling
The Momentum factor picked up where it left off at the end of the first quarter, turning in another standout performance in the April-through-June timeframe and ending the second quarter as the factor most relevant to positive performance.
The U.S. Small Cap Rally Has Been Fast and Furious. But Is It Here to Stay?
The small cap rally has primarily been a de-risking event. It's unclear at this point whether it’s just a blip or the beginning of a new trend in market leadership.
U.S. ETF Flows: Investors Are Getting Polarized
It's been another strong first half for the U.S. ETF industry, with overall flows set to challenge or surpass historic records.
Four Ways to Manage Taxes as Loss-Harvesting Opportunities Fade
For taxable investors, an appreciating portfolio can be a mixed blessing. But regular loss harvesting isn’t the only way to reduce your portfolio’s tax bill, especially as its value rises. We share some important tax-management techniques for the future.
Navigating the Markets: Insights From Our Q2 Economic and Market Review
The momentum we've seen in U.S. equity markets over the past year continued in the second quarter of 2024. With large technology stocks leading the wave, the S&P 500 index has risen 23% in the 12 months ended June 30.
What’s Behind the Recent Rally in U.S. Small Cap Stocks?
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Director of Investment Strategies, Shailesh Kshatriya, discussed the recent strength in U.S. small cap stocks and the likelihood of a September rate cut from the Fed. He also provided an update on the latest inflation numbers from Canada and the UK.
Are U.S. Consumers Tapped Out?
Slower spending is a part of the return to normal economic conditions.
Returns Spiking for This Rate-Sensitive ETF
Looking for a rate-sensitive ETF for rate cuts? This strategy is performing well over the last several periods per YCharts even before cuts.
Green Bond Sales Boomed in First Half of 2024
Issuance of green bonds surged in the first half of 2024. That could put more eyeballs on the VanEck Green Bond ETF (GRNB).
Fed Prepares for September Cut as Powell Shifts Focus to Jobs
For more than two years, inflation has eclipsed everything else at the Federal Reserve. In a shift eagerly awaited by global markets, that’s poised to change.
Third Quarter Equity Outlook
As the U.S. evolved from a goods economy to a services economy, expansionary cycles more than doubled in length. But a recent resurgence in manufacturing may be taking us back to the future.
Developed Market Public Debt: Risks and Realities
In the post-pandemic fiscal landscape, government debt trajectories may be volatile, but appear broadly sustainable.
Backlash Against ESG Seen in Sharp Decline of Fund Launches
At some of the world’s biggest asset managers, ESG fund launches are quietly stalling.
4th Industrial Revolution Could Bolster This Critical Minerals ETF
A transition to alternative energy is helping to fuel a 4th industrial revolution. In turn, this will increase critical minerals demand.
Wall Street Starts Calling Time on ESG Labels After Backlash
At Institutional Investor, keeper of Wall Street’s version of the Oscars for financial analysts, the winner in one category this year is — nobody.
Europe Is Dealing With Deficits
The initiation of the excessive deficit procedure will hinder European unity.
The Power of Employee Investment and Net Wealth Mindset
Leveraging essential tools will energize teams, streamline operations, and drive growth. Financial advisors should actively promote education, training, networking, and personal development to foster a net wealth-supporting environment.
Good June CPI Print Raises Bets for Rate Cuts
We want to repeat what we have said in the past: “One data point doesn’t a trend make.” However, the June data, after weaker than expected readings for April and May, confirm our suspicion that inflation numbers during the first quarter of the year were a fluke.
Schwab Market Perspective: Connecting the Pieces
Softening inflation supports the potential for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in coming months, but there are complexities below the surface.
The Fed Should Cut Rates Now. Sadly, It Won’t.
Thursday’s wildly encouraging consumer price index report shows that the Federal Reserve should be cutting policy rates at its meeting later this month. Unfortunately, they’ll probably keep us waiting until September.
The Importance Of Authenticity In Financial Advising
Trust is a precious commodity and the importance of authenticity cannot be overstated. Whether in healthcare, education, or business, being genuine and transparent is essential for building strong, lasting relationships. However, nowhere is this truer than in the financial advisory industry.
What Your Advisory Firm Will Look Like in 2035 (If It Still Exists)
AI and automation will revolutionize the financial advisory industry. These technologies enhance efficiency, improve client communication, and enable data-driven decision-making. By 2035, AI will be integral to most advisory firms.
Beyond Nvidia: How the AI Picture Could Evolve for Investors
Almost every industry could ultimately incorporate AI, leaving a puzzle for investors seeking exposure. Using the internet as an example may provide some breadcrumbs.
Profits and Persistence: The Secret to Investing for Long-Term Growth
What should equity investors look for to find companies with strong economic profits, backed by clear business advantages?
Returns of $7.2 Trillion Green Sector Outpaced Only by Tech Stocks
If the companies that derive revenue from products and services that help reduce carbon emissions were taken as a single industry group, they would have had the second-best financial performance of any equity sector over the past decade.
Another Green Bubble Is Deflating in Biofuels
The oil company declared its traditional business was all but over. “The demand for fossil oil products will continue to decline,” it said in late 2020 as the pandemic slashed consumption. Even when Covid-19 is over, consumption wouldn’t “recover to previous levels.”
Big Bond Bet Favored by Citi, JPMorgan Gets Boost Before CPI
The bond trade that some of Wall Street’s biggest banks say will dominate the rest of 2024 is gaining steam before a crucial inflation reading that will help seal the wager’s fate.
Earnings Bar Lowered As Q2 Reports Begin
Wall Street analysts continue significantly lowering the earnings bar as we enter the Q2 reporting period. Even as analysts lower that earnings bar, stocks have rallied sharply over the last few months.
The Economics of Philanthropy
Philanthropy is not a substitute for government action in areas like health, education, and the distribution of income and wealth, but it can advance public goods and improve human well-being. The key is to design institutions that deliver the reputational benefits that donors crave.
Gradually then Suddenly: US Debt and Deficits
Ongoing budget deficits linger amid the post-COVID economic recovery. While markets appear unconcerned now, the accumulation of debt may exhaust investor patience. Anxiety about the sustainability of the nation’s debt could escalate with the upcoming elections in November. In part one of our series, let’s look at fiscal policy and Treasury debt.
Morro the Same
In 1539, 30 years after San Juan was founded, the Spanish began building defenses of its harbor on the northern shore of Puerto Rico. Construction continued for another 250 years. Now that’s a long time-horizon! The mammoth fort known as Castillo San Felipe del Morro (or “El Morro”) is still standing.
Unlocking the True Value of Your Financial Advisory Practice
Unlocking your practice's full potential involves strategic planning and a comprehensive understanding of these critical factors. Whether you’re planning an exit or aiming for growth, these insights will help you maximize your practice's value.
Hedging Inflation’s Impact on Your Portfolio
To protect your investments and ensure they retain their value over time, you must implement proactive strategies that combat the effects of inflation. In this article, we discuss seven strategies to help shield your investments from inflation’s impact.
Advisor Opportunities for Generation X
The Generation X report released by Natixis Investment Managers included a check of investment sentiment and opportunities for advisors.
2024 Mid Year Themes
We review the key themes of the first half of a busy year.
Debtors and Creditors
The giant federal debt we’ve been talking about isn’t just borrowed money. It is also lent money. Loans are two-party transactions. One side receives temporary use of cash which it agrees to repay with interest. The other gives up the current use of that cash in exchange for receiving interest. Ideally, it works out for both… but not always.
Rate Cuts Begin
Initial rate cuts by the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada may signal a transformative trend toward monetary easing.
Prompting AI: Can Better Conversations Drive Better Investment Research?
A richer dialogue between human experts and large language models may improve outcomes.
FedEx Stokes Investors With Hint of a Freight Deal
FedEx Corp. dropped a bomb on the market Tuesday afternoon with the announcement that it will do an “assessment” of its freight unit. Investors seemed to like the move, pushing up the shares as much as 15%, on the possibility of a windfall and a more pure-play package delivery and logistics company.
The Growth Agenda for the United Kingdom
After years of insufficient investment and sagging productivity in the UK, the Labour Party recognizes that achieving high-quality growth will require a comprehensive policy approach that builds on many intermediate objectives. But devising a strategy is only the first step; the real challenge lies in implementation.