An enduring image from 2024 will be the capture of the SpaceX booster rocket by the Mechazilla robot arms on its return to Earth. This achievement served as a powerful metaphor for the year: the improbable not only became possible but redefined expectations.
China’s economic ascent over the past four decades has been a remarkable story of growth, driven by several factors.
The U.S. economy and stock market are entering 2025 from a position of strength, but risks of volatility—especially pertaining to policy—are much higher compared to last year.
Amid concerns about the impact of rising deficits on U.S. Treasuries, it helps to differentiate bond investments by maturity, credit rating, and global relative value.
As a concept, environmentally responsible investing is in its flop era. Right-wing backlash has turned “ESG” into a four-letter word in terrified corporate boardrooms.
I am (mostly) bullish on crypto and (usually) skeptical of higher taxes, especially on capital gains.
Financial markets often move in cycles where enthusiasm drives prices higher, sometimes far beyond what fundamentals justify.
Whether you want to buy or rent, finding an affordable, comfortable home can be extremely difficult, if not impossible.
U.S. policies are set for a major reshaping as full Republican control takes hold in 2025.
CEO Ali Dibadj highlights the three macro drivers that investors must navigate in 2025 and beyond, as well as the importance of actively positioning for a brighter investment future.
Five of Franklin Templeton’s specialist investment managers provide their annual outlooks for the global economy and key asset classes, including global equities; global fixed income; global infrastructure; the macro fixed income environment; municipal bond market; high yield bond market; small cap equities; U.S. dollar; U.S. economy; and U.S. equities.
In the port city of Duluth, Minnesota, local activists and Washington-based groups are coalescing to scrutinize — and possibly stall — a $6.2 billion acquisition of a power utility led by Global Infrastructure Partners.
If you thought the detention and subsequent release of Resolute Mining Ltd.’s chief executive by the government of Mali two weeks ago was a one-off, you would have been wrong.
How to unlock value in a complex market landscape.
Our research suggests that healthcare firms with sound pay practices may yield healthier returns.
The WisdomTree BioRevolution Fund (WDNA) is showing signs of recovery, reflecting renewed investor confidence in biotechnology innovation.
The Fed could be ‘slower to lower,' while the Trend continues to rise, with an overly optimistic Crowd due to seasonality and post-election trends.
International markets are expected to clear the hurdles of uncertain trade policy, tighter fiscal policy and slower than average economic growth to support solid overall returns.
When it comes to personalized investment strategies, multiple perspectives come into play: the client, the provider and the advisor.
With human rights regulations expanding, investors need a broader approach to assessing risk and opportunity.
Investors are scrambling to decide if Donald Trump’s impending return to the White House will sustain or derail the rally in emerging-market bonds witnessed under Joe Biden.
The question on “everyone’s” mind, whether the back or the front, is where will the stock market be in two, three, six years?
Policy changes could reshape return potential for companies across the US market. Here’s how investors can start thinking about the challenges ahead.
VettaFi spoke recently with Nate Williams, a vice president and ETF specialist with Franklin Templeton, about the growth of its ETF business.
Following President Trump’s re-election, the S&P 500 has seen an impressive surge, climbing past 6,000 and sparking significant optimism in the financial markets. Unsurprisingly, the rush by perma-bulls to make long-term predictions is remarkable.
Growth prospects for the group of companies dubbed the Magnificent 7 are still above average, but they’re no longer magnificent. Consensus Wall Street forecasts suggest that, in aggregate, the seven large-capitalization companies will perform just a whisker better than the “S&P 493” next year...
This week, at the North American Blockchain Summit in Dallas, Texas, I had the distinct privilege of moderating a fireside chat with former Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper.
The second coming of Donald Trump is unquestionably bad news for Germany.
“Overheated” is how short-sellers Citron Research described MicroStrategy Inc. on Thursday.
Why the equity market rally following the U.S. presidential election could continue into year-end.
Paul Tudor Jones recently voiced concerns that rising U.S. deficits and debt and increasing interest rates could lead to a fiscal crisis. His perspective reflects the long-standing fear that sustained borrowing will trigger inflation, raise interest rates, and eventually overwhelm the government’s ability to manage its debt obligations.
In the months before Donald Trump entered the White House the first time around, speculation mounted that he would release mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from the federal conservatorship they’d operated under since being bailed out during the global financial crisis.
Top financial professionals have a clear understanding of their unique strengths and are able to convey them to clients. To set yourself up for success, distinguish yourself in the market through specialized expertise and tailored client services.
The global transition to clean energy should open opportunities for fixed income investors in bond funds that focus on the ESG theme.
Change is the sum of fundamental trends, the gradual elimination of accumulated extremes, and the random arrival of new shocks.
Investor exuberance has rarely been so optimistic. In a recent post, we discussed investor expectations of returns over the next year, according to the Conference Board’s Sentiment Index.
Germany’s Carl Benz might have invented the automobile, but it’s the United States that got us to drive them.
With President-elect Donald Trump set to assume office in January, the U.S. military and cybersecurity sectors could experience sweeping changes, creating opportunities for investors who recognize the long-term growth potential in defense and technology.
Healthcare companies often grab headlines for their exciting drug innovations. But we think the focus should be on business fundamentals.
U.S. rate cuts of up to 200bps are anticipated by the end of 2025 but with significant further downside if recession risks materialize.
As a major corn and soybean consumer, China is keeping prices in limbo. A potential trade war could add additional intrigue.
For DC plan sponsors, developing a short list of income solutions is a good first step.
I went to bed “early” on election night, around 10:30 pm. We are in the five months of the year where Puerto Rico is one hour ahead of Eastern time, and nothing I was seeing made me think it would be an early night. And by that I meant 3 or 4 am.
Maslow’s hierarchy of needs was a groundbreaking concept when it appeared in 1943. American psychologist Abraham Maslow argued that certain basic needs—food, water, shelter, etc.—must be met before a person can move on to higher levels of self-worth and fulfillment.
Corporate buybacks have become a hot topic, drawing criticism from regulators and policymakers. In recent years, Washington, D.C., has considered proposals to tax or limit them.
Bentley Motors Ltd. is delaying a plan to offer only fully electric vehicles by 2030 as EV sales continue to disappoint projections across the industry.
Over the past few years, investors and regulators have increased scrutiny of greenwashing.
Better than expected economic data drove interest rates higher, changing the market narrative and contributing to an equity market pullback early in the month. This unraveled expectations of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and resulted in real rates moving higher. The 10-year Treasury has moved up 48 basis points, ending the month at 4.27%.
Franklin Templeton Fixed Income believes investing in companies promoting gender equality and diversity can lead to inclusivity and strong financial returns. Despite the persistent gender gap, there's an increase in women in leadership roles, positively impacting financial performance, corporate governance and crisis resilience.
At GMO we have spent the last four decades taking a long-horizon approach to equity investing. Over time, a unique and reliable group of standout companies emerged from our research.
Last week's jobs report hit a "sweet spot" for the markets, confirming enough economic cooling to signal potential Fed rate cuts without yet sparking fears of a recession. I expect a 25-basis-point cut from the Fed this week and Powell may set us up for a data-dependent pause in December.
Key market indicators for November 2024 present a complex but opportunity-filled environment for traders and investors. Following the first phase of Federal Reserve rate cuts and growing global uncertainties, the technical landscape suggests several notable shifts. Let’s explore the key market indicators to watch.
Anyone else ready for the election to be over? This uncertainty is exhausting, no matter how you want it to end. But sadly, it won’t really end. We will just transition to a different uncertainty over what will happen next. I will offer my thoughts on the election at the end of this letter, after setting the stage.
Integrating the physical toll of climate change helps investors spot key risks—and opportunities.
In a corner of the credit market that regulators last year characterized as a potential hot-bed of greenwashing, there are signs that bankers have been cracking down on corporate pitches.
Wall Street has been steadily raising the alarm on mega-cap concentration risks, and recent notes have cranked up the hazard level a notch.
To paraphrase Milton Friedman: There are four ways in which you can spend money. You can spend your own money on yourself. You can spend your own money on somebody else. You can spend somebody else’s money on yourself. Finally, you can spend somebody else’s money on somebody else.
Join the experts at Adasina Social Capital for a free educational webcast that explores a social justice investing strategy that could boost your portfolio and help bring more equity into the world.
Seasonality has long influenced stock market trends, offering insights into predictable cycles of strength and weakness throughout the year. Yale Hirsch, the creator of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, is one of the most well-known contributors to studying these patterns.
Been with the same employer for 10 years or more? That doesn’t exactly make you a rarity in the US, where 30.2% of employed wage and salary workers were in that situation as of January 2024, according to data released last month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. And while this percentage is down from a decade ago, it’s close to where things stood for the much of the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s.
We don’t talk about China enough. I suspect this is for several reasons. First, because the country is so incomprehensibly big and populous. Second, it has been an economic miracle. Many Chinese enthusiasts just see a straight line projection of their growth. To the moon, Alice!
Even with inflation well and truly on the way down after the most aggressive interest-rate tightening in a generation, central banks are averse to declarations of victory. That the pace of price increases has been reined in without a major economic downturn is an accomplishment that warrants some trumpeting.
Advisors and their clients who seek to take advantage of the potential rewards of private equity investing should understand the performance dispersion between top- and bottom-performing managers, a factor that heightens both the risk and opportunity. Since private equity investments are designed to be long-term investments where capital can be locked up for years, getting the manager selection wrong can be a vexing obstacle to success.
Memory inflation of past events amplifies one's emotions and behaviors. As I will discuss, I believe that distress from recent price inflation is causing many investors to overly fear that a similar situation will reoccur.
When Warren Buffett calls a book on investing “by far the best book about investing ever written,” it is common sense to concede the point.
To those who argue that value investing has gotten too hard in today’s momentum-chasing, passive-driven world, Scott McBride’s results are a bit of a conundrum.
One of the only things growing faster than progress in AI applications is speculation about AI’s effect on the economy. I don’t have all the answers, not by a long shot, but I do think we should expect great unevenness in adaptation, and that itself will alter our world.
The Federal Reserve's dual mandate is to maintain stable inflation and maximize employment. The Fed manages liquidity through its policy tools, but it's crucial to remember that the Fed is just one source of liquidity among several. In this quick insight, Dan Suzuki examines why tight Fed policy doesn't always equate to tight liquidity and looks into the historical data on Fed cuts.
Two major labor unions, the Dock Workers Union and the Boeing Machinists Union, have attempted to reach an agreement with their employers on a contract. The dock workers agreement proposes an average 8.5% per year wage increase over six years, and the Boeing Machinists Union’s proposal is for an average 7.5% wage increase over four years.
Asset managers in Europe and the US have spent 2024 winding down hundreds of ESG funds, as the investment strategy continues to bump up against regulatory headwinds.
As Steward Health Care Systems LLC’s network of hospitals was struggling, it stopped paying some of its vendors. One of those vendors was a supplier of bereavement boxes, the tiny cases used to transport the remains of newborns who don’t survive.
The sharp selloff in Treasuries abated on Thursday, with US bonds rallying alongside European peers, after three straight days of declines.
If you listen to tech industry leaders, business-sector forecasters, and much of the media, you may believe that recent advances in generative AI will soon bring extraordinary productivity benefits, revolutionizing life as we know it. Yet neither economic theory nor the data support such exuberant forecasts.
The U.S. election outcome is anyone’s guess, so let’s try to game out the winners and losers from the candidates’ major policy proposals.
The robotics space has underperformed broader tech recently, leading to investment opportunities as the market underappreciates major tailwinds.
It’s inevitable that the market dynamics that have delivered cheaper airfares, used cars and rents in the past year will eventually turn around. One high-profile reminder came from United Airlines’ earnings last week.
Treasury yields climbed for the third straight day amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates at a gradual pace and as traders fretted about the potential inflationary implications of the US presidential election.
Determining your client’s risk tolerance is a critical first step in constructing a tailored investment portfolio.
With third quarter GDP being reported next Wednesday – less than a week before election day – the US is still not in recession.
Tighter fiscal policy in Europe and China may hinder the economic response to easing monetary policy, with a resulting shift in investors' focus.
Global oil markets are working through many disruptions.
Thanks to a variety of structural advantages, including favorable demographic trends, we believe the U.S. remains the most attractive investment environment in the world.
The latest economic data reveals a resilient economy, led by strong retail sales and a surprising drop in jobless claims. Despite some weakness in manufacturing, industrial production, and housing, overall economic strength is reflected in the projected third-quarter real GDP growth, expected to come in at a robust 3%—largely driven by productivity gains. This productivity led rebound is very positive and this confirms that despite tighter monetary conditions, the real economy remains strong.
Explore how AI fuels nuclear investments, drives energy demand, and attracts tech giants to nuclear power.
With polls showing Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in a close race, how do the key economic metrics favor each candidate?
Big Tech is going nuclear in its pursuit of artificial intelligence. Power-hungry datacenters are just one part of a broader freak-out over how the US grid will handle even bigger loads including electric vehicles and re-shored factories, plus withstand extreme weather, all while decarbonizing at a reasonable cost.
Energy policy decisions today will have long-lasting implications.
Even without new staff projections, the European Central Bank makes policy less restrictive and lowers its relevant rate to 3.25%.
It's important to stay informed regarding the latest updates to 529 college savings plans, for both current account holders and prospective savers. In recent years there have been significant changes, including The Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement (SECURE) 2.0 Act in December of 2022, which helps enhance the flexibility and benefits of 529 plans.
Sustainable Investing
2025 Annual Global Market Outlook: The Mechazilla Moment
An enduring image from 2024 will be the capture of the SpaceX booster rocket by the Mechazilla robot arms on its return to Earth. This achievement served as a powerful metaphor for the year: the improbable not only became possible but redefined expectations.
Watching China’s Economic Miracle (and Relevance) Fade Before Our Eyes
China’s economic ascent over the past four decades has been a remarkable story of growth, driven by several factors.
2025 U.S. Stocks and Economy Outlook
The U.S. economy and stock market are entering 2025 from a position of strength, but risks of volatility—especially pertaining to policy—are much higher compared to last year.
Thoughts From the Bond Vigilantes
Amid concerns about the impact of rising deficits on U.S. Treasuries, it helps to differentiate bond investments by maturity, credit rating, and global relative value.
ESG Is in Its Flop Era
As a concept, environmentally responsible investing is in its flop era. Right-wing backlash has turned “ESG” into a four-letter word in terrified corporate boardrooms.
Crypto Doesn’t Deserve a Tax Exemption
I am (mostly) bullish on crypto and (usually) skeptical of higher taxes, especially on capital gains.
Leverage And Speculation Are At Extremes
Financial markets often move in cycles where enthusiasm drives prices higher, sometimes far beyond what fundamentals justify.
Homes for Christmas
Whether you want to buy or rent, finding an affordable, comfortable home can be extremely difficult, if not impossible.
An Investor’s Guide to Potential U.S. Policy Changes in 2025
U.S. policies are set for a major reshaping as full Republican control takes hold in 2025.
Macro Drivers: Actively Navigating Change and Complexity in 2025
CEO Ali Dibadj highlights the three macro drivers that investors must navigate in 2025 and beyond, as well as the importance of actively positioning for a brighter investment future.
Franklin Templeton’s 2025 Outlooks for Equities and Fixed Income Sectors
Five of Franklin Templeton’s specialist investment managers provide their annual outlooks for the global economy and key asset classes, including global equities; global fixed income; global infrastructure; the macro fixed income environment; municipal bond market; high yield bond market; small cap equities; U.S. dollar; U.S. economy; and U.S. equities.
BlackRock’s Big Bet on GIP Puts Fink’s Firm in Local Spotlight
In the port city of Duluth, Minnesota, local activists and Washington-based groups are coalescing to scrutinize — and possibly stall — a $6.2 billion acquisition of a power utility led by Global Infrastructure Partners.
Africans Demand a Bigger Share of Their Natural Resources Wealth
If you thought the detention and subsequent release of Resolute Mining Ltd.’s chief executive by the government of Mali two weeks ago was a one-off, you would have been wrong.
Turning the Corner? Commercial Real Estate Themes for 2025
How to unlock value in a complex market landscape.
In Sickness and in Wealth: A Closer Look at Executive Pay in Healthcare
Our research suggests that healthcare firms with sound pay practices may yield healthier returns.
Opportunities in Biotechnology Will Follow Advancements in the Science
The WisdomTree BioRevolution Fund (WDNA) is showing signs of recovery, reflecting renewed investor confidence in biotechnology innovation.
Tactical Rules Hovering Above Neutral
The Fed could be ‘slower to lower,' while the Trend continues to rise, with an overly optimistic Crowd due to seasonality and post-election trends.
2025 Global Outlook: Clearing the Hurdles
International markets are expected to clear the hurdles of uncertain trade policy, tighter fiscal policy and slower than average economic growth to support solid overall returns.
How to Create a Personalized Portfolio with Direct Indexing
When it comes to personalized investment strategies, multiple perspectives come into play: the client, the provider and the advisor.
Human Rights and Portfolio Risk: Why Investors Should Think Big
With human rights regulations expanding, investors need a broader approach to assessing risk and opportunity.
Stocks Versus Bonds Dilemma Hits EM Traders as Trump Returns
Investors are scrambling to decide if Donald Trump’s impending return to the White House will sustain or derail the rally in emerging-market bonds witnessed under Joe Biden.
The Changing Nature of the Stock Market
The question on “everyone’s” mind, whether the back or the front, is where will the stock market be in two, three, six years?
Beyond the Trump Trade: US Equity Investing in a New Policy Era
Policy changes could reshape return potential for companies across the US market. Here’s how investors can start thinking about the challenges ahead.
Financial Giant Charts a Differentiated Course in Active ETFs
VettaFi spoke recently with Nate Williams, a vice president and ETF specialist with Franklin Templeton, about the growth of its ETF business.
Yardeni And The Long History Of Prediction Problems
Following President Trump’s re-election, the S&P 500 has seen an impressive surge, climbing past 6,000 and sparking significant optimism in the financial markets. Unsurprisingly, the rush by perma-bulls to make long-term predictions is remarkable.
The Magnificent 7 Are Beginning to Look Average
Growth prospects for the group of companies dubbed the Magnificent 7 are still above average, but they’re no longer magnificent. Consensus Wall Street forecasts suggest that, in aggregate, the seven large-capitalization companies will perform just a whisker better than the “S&P 493” next year...
Stephen Harper’s Blueprint for Economic Growth and Middle-Class Prosperity
This week, at the North American Blockchain Summit in Dallas, Texas, I had the distinct privilege of moderating a fireside chat with former Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper.
How Germany Can Make Peace With Trump on Trade
The second coming of Donald Trump is unquestionably bad news for Germany.
MicroStrategy's Infinite Money Glitch Won’t Last
“Overheated” is how short-sellers Citron Research described MicroStrategy Inc. on Thursday.
An Investor's Guide to Potential U.S. Policy Changes in 2025
U.S. policies are set for a major reshaping as full Republican control takes hold in 2025.
Why the Election Rally Could Continue
Why the equity market rally following the U.S. presidential election could continue into year-end.
Paul Tudor Jones: I Won’t Own Fixed Income
Paul Tudor Jones recently voiced concerns that rising U.S. deficits and debt and increasing interest rates could lead to a fiscal crisis. His perspective reflects the long-standing fear that sustained borrowing will trigger inflation, raise interest rates, and eventually overwhelm the government’s ability to manage its debt obligations.
Will Trump’s $280 Billion Housing Trophy Stay Out of Reach?
In the months before Donald Trump entered the White House the first time around, speculation mounted that he would release mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from the federal conservatorship they’d operated under since being bailed out during the global financial crisis.
What Top Financial Professionals Are Doing to Succeed
Top financial professionals have a clear understanding of their unique strengths and are able to convey them to clients. To set yourself up for success, distinguish yourself in the market through specialized expertise and tailored client services.
Green Energy Transition Opens ESG Opportunities in Bonds
The global transition to clean energy should open opportunities for fixed income investors in bond funds that focus on the ESG theme.
The Turtle and the Pendulum
Change is the sum of fundamental trends, the gradual elimination of accumulated extremes, and the random arrival of new shocks.
Exuberance – Investors Have Rarely Been So Optimistic
Investor exuberance has rarely been so optimistic. In a recent post, we discussed investor expectations of returns over the next year, according to the Conference Board’s Sentiment Index.
America Got the World Driving. Now It’s Going Home
Germany’s Carl Benz might have invented the automobile, but it’s the United States that got us to drive them.
How Trump’s Second Term Could Impact Defense and Cybersecurity Spending
With President-elect Donald Trump set to assume office in January, the U.S. military and cybersecurity sectors could experience sweeping changes, creating opportunities for investors who recognize the long-term growth potential in defense and technology.
Why Healthcare Investors Shouldn’t Bank on Drug Pipelines
Healthcare companies often grab headlines for their exciting drug innovations. But we think the focus should be on business fundamentals.
Fixed Income Survey 2024-2025: Cautious Optimism
U.S. rate cuts of up to 200bps are anticipated by the end of 2025 but with significant further downside if recession risks materialize.
China Demand, Trade Wars Keep Ag Commodities in Limbo
As a major corn and soybean consumer, China is keeping prices in limbo. A potential trade war could add additional intrigue.
Four Questions to Narrow the Field of Retirement Income Solutions
For DC plan sponsors, developing a short list of income solutions is a good first step.
Dogs Catching Cars
I went to bed “early” on election night, around 10:30 pm. We are in the five months of the year where Puerto Rico is one hour ahead of Eastern time, and nothing I was seeing made me think it would be an early night. And by that I meant 3 or 4 am.
Trump Prevailed by Running on the Need for Safety and Protection
Maslow’s hierarchy of needs was a groundbreaking concept when it appeared in 1943. American psychologist Abraham Maslow argued that certain basic needs—food, water, shelter, etc.—must be met before a person can move on to higher levels of self-worth and fulfillment.
Corporate Buybacks: A Wolf In Sheep’s Clothing
Corporate buybacks have become a hot topic, drawing criticism from regulators and policymakers. In recent years, Washington, D.C., has considered proposals to tax or limit them.
Bentley Motors Delays Its Master Plan for Electric Vehicles
Bentley Motors Ltd. is delaying a plan to offer only fully electric vehicles by 2030 as EV sales continue to disappoint projections across the industry.
Greenwashing Focus Not Indictment of ESG Investing
Over the past few years, investors and regulators have increased scrutiny of greenwashing.
Late Tech Losses Sink October Equity Market Gains
Better than expected economic data drove interest rates higher, changing the market narrative and contributing to an equity market pullback early in the month. This unraveled expectations of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and resulted in real rates moving higher. The 10-year Treasury has moved up 48 basis points, ending the month at 4.27%.
Empowering Change: The Role of Social Bonds in Promoting Gender Equality
Franklin Templeton Fixed Income believes investing in companies promoting gender equality and diversity can lead to inclusivity and strong financial returns. Despite the persistent gender gap, there's an increase in women in leadership roles, positively impacting financial performance, corporate governance and crisis resilience.
Quality: The Real McCoy
At GMO we have spent the last four decades taking a long-horizon approach to equity investing. Over time, a unique and reliable group of standout companies emerged from our research.
Jobs Report Signals Another Fed Cut This Week
Last week's jobs report hit a "sweet spot" for the markets, confirming enough economic cooling to signal potential Fed rate cuts without yet sparking fears of a recession. I expect a 25-basis-point cut from the Fed this week and Powell may set us up for a data-dependent pause in December.
Key Market Indicators for November 2024
Key market indicators for November 2024 present a complex but opportunity-filled environment for traders and investors. Following the first phase of Federal Reserve rate cuts and growing global uncertainties, the technical landscape suggests several notable shifts. Let’s explore the key market indicators to watch.
One-Way Road to Crisis
Anyone else ready for the election to be over? This uncertainty is exhausting, no matter how you want it to end. But sadly, it won’t really end. We will just transition to a different uncertainty over what will happen next. I will offer my thoughts on the election at the end of this letter, after setting the stage.
As Climate Change Gets Hyperphysical, Investors Should Too
Integrating the physical toll of climate change helps investors spot key risks—and opportunities.
JPMorgan Sees Fear Receding in a $1.8 Trillion Loans Market
In a corner of the credit market that regulators last year characterized as a potential hot-bed of greenwashing, there are signs that bankers have been cracking down on corporate pitches.
Desperate to Diversify: Concentration Risks Creep Higher
Wall Street has been steadily raising the alarm on mega-cap concentration risks, and recent notes have cranked up the hazard level a notch.
Markets are Smarter than Government
To paraphrase Milton Friedman: There are four ways in which you can spend money. You can spend your own money on yourself. You can spend your own money on somebody else. You can spend somebody else’s money on yourself. Finally, you can spend somebody else’s money on somebody else.
Beyond ESG: Social Justice Investing
Join the experts at Adasina Social Capital for a free educational webcast that explores a social justice investing strategy that could boost your portfolio and help bring more equity into the world.
Seasonality: Buy Signal And Investing Outcomes
Seasonality has long influenced stock market trends, offering insights into predictable cycles of strength and weakness throughout the year. Yale Hirsch, the creator of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, is one of the most well-known contributors to studying these patterns.
Haven’t Worked at the Same Place for 10 Years? Join the Club
Been with the same employer for 10 years or more? That doesn’t exactly make you a rarity in the US, where 30.2% of employed wage and salary workers were in that situation as of January 2024, according to data released last month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. And while this percentage is down from a decade ago, it’s close to where things stood for the much of the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s.
Broken China
We don’t talk about China enough. I suspect this is for several reasons. First, because the country is so incomprehensibly big and populous. Second, it has been an economic miracle. Many Chinese enthusiasts just see a straight line projection of their growth. To the moon, Alice!
The Inflation Struggle Is Over. Just Don’t Tell Anyone
Even with inflation well and truly on the way down after the most aggressive interest-rate tightening in a generation, central banks are averse to declarations of victory. That the pace of price increases has been reined in without a major economic downturn is an accomplishment that warrants some trumpeting.
Why Manager Selection Is Critical for Private Equity Investing
Advisors and their clients who seek to take advantage of the potential rewards of private equity investing should understand the performance dispersion between top- and bottom-performing managers, a factor that heightens both the risk and opportunity. Since private equity investments are designed to be long-term investments where capital can be locked up for years, getting the manager selection wrong can be a vexing obstacle to success.
Memory Inflation Warps Bond Yields
Memory inflation of past events amplifies one's emotions and behaviors. As I will discuss, I believe that distress from recent price inflation is causing many investors to overly fear that a similar situation will reoccur.
The Intelligent Investor Is Still Worth Reading 75 Years Later
When Warren Buffett calls a book on investing “by far the best book about investing ever written,” it is common sense to concede the point.
How a $33 Billion Fund Manager Scored a Perfect Record Betting on Value
To those who argue that value investing has gotten too hard in today’s momentum-chasing, passive-driven world, Scott McBride’s results are a bit of a conundrum.
AI’s Effect on the US Economy Will Be Wildly Uneven
One of the only things growing faster than progress in AI applications is speculation about AI’s effect on the economy. I don’t have all the answers, not by a long shot, but I do think we should expect great unevenness in adaptation, and that itself will alter our world.
Navigating the Tight Policy, Loose Liquidity Paradox
The Federal Reserve's dual mandate is to maintain stable inflation and maximize employment. The Fed manages liquidity through its policy tools, but it's crucial to remember that the Fed is just one source of liquidity among several. In this quick insight, Dan Suzuki examines why tight Fed policy doesn't always equate to tight liquidity and looks into the historical data on Fed cuts.
Inflation Mathematics
Two major labor unions, the Dock Workers Union and the Boeing Machinists Union, have attempted to reach an agreement with their employers on a contract. The dock workers agreement proposes an average 8.5% per year wage increase over six years, and the Boeing Machinists Union’s proposal is for an average 7.5% wage increase over four years.
Hundreds of ESG Funds Are Being Wound Down, Morningstar Says
Asset managers in Europe and the US have spent 2024 winding down hundreds of ESG funds, as the investment strategy continues to bump up against regulatory headwinds.
US Hospitals Are Hanging by a Thread
As Steward Health Care Systems LLC’s network of hospitals was struggling, it stopped paying some of its vendors. One of those vendors was a supplier of bereavement boxes, the tiny cases used to transport the remains of newborns who don’t survive.
US Treasuries Rebound as Market Takes Break From Days of Losses
The sharp selloff in Treasuries abated on Thursday, with US bonds rallying alongside European peers, after three straight days of declines.
Don’t Believe the AI Hype
If you listen to tech industry leaders, business-sector forecasters, and much of the media, you may believe that recent advances in generative AI will soon bring extraordinary productivity benefits, revolutionizing life as we know it. Yet neither economic theory nor the data support such exuberant forecasts.
The Race to Fiscal and Monetary Stimulus
The U.S. election outcome is anyone’s guess, so let’s try to game out the winners and losers from the candidates’ major policy proposals.
2024 Recap for Pure-Play Robotics Ecosystem & Outlook Ahead
The robotics space has underperformed broader tech recently, leading to investment opportunities as the market underappreciates major tailwinds.
Say Goodbye to Cheaper Rent and Airfares
It’s inevitable that the market dynamics that have delivered cheaper airfares, used cars and rents in the past year will eventually turn around. One high-profile reminder came from United Airlines’ earnings last week.
Treasuries Slide for Third Straight Day as Fed-Cut Bets Wane
Treasury yields climbed for the third straight day amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates at a gradual pace and as traders fretted about the potential inflationary implications of the US presidential election.
Your Clients Are Clueless About Their Risk Tolerance
Determining your client’s risk tolerance is a critical first step in constructing a tailored investment portfolio.
GDP Growth Still Solid
With third quarter GDP being reported next Wednesday – less than a week before election day – the US is still not in recession.
Pivot to Fiscal Policy
Tighter fiscal policy in Europe and China may hinder the economic response to easing monetary policy, with a resulting shift in investors' focus.
The Middle East, and Oil
Global oil markets are working through many disruptions.
Equity Outlook: Invest in the Best, Avoid the Rest
Thanks to a variety of structural advantages, including favorable demographic trends, we believe the U.S. remains the most attractive investment environment in the world.
Strong Retail Sales and Rising Yields Signal Resilience
The latest economic data reveals a resilient economy, led by strong retail sales and a surprising drop in jobless claims. Despite some weakness in manufacturing, industrial production, and housing, overall economic strength is reflected in the projected third-quarter real GDP growth, expected to come in at a robust 3%—largely driven by productivity gains. This productivity led rebound is very positive and this confirms that despite tighter monetary conditions, the real economy remains strong.
AI's Impact on the Surge of Nuclear Investments: Everything You Need to Know
Explore how AI fuels nuclear investments, drives energy demand, and attracts tech giants to nuclear power.
Can Economic Indicators Or Betting Markets Predict Election Results?
With polls showing Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in a close race, how do the key economic metrics favor each candidate?
AI's Power Drain Demands a Novel Solution: Us
Big Tech is going nuclear in its pursuit of artificial intelligence. Power-hungry datacenters are just one part of a broader freak-out over how the US grid will handle even bigger loads including electric vehicles and re-shored factories, plus withstand extreme weather, all while decarbonizing at a reasonable cost.
Tough Choices for Energy Policy
Energy policy decisions today will have long-lasting implications.
ECB: Growth Concerns
Even without new staff projections, the European Central Bank makes policy less restrictive and lowers its relevant rate to 3.25%.
Is College 529 Financial Planning Really That Simple?
It's important to stay informed regarding the latest updates to 529 college savings plans, for both current account holders and prospective savers. In recent years there have been significant changes, including The Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement (SECURE) 2.0 Act in December of 2022, which helps enhance the flexibility and benefits of 529 plans.