Corporate Credit

Nick Goetze discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.

Yield spreads are critical to understanding market sentiment and predicting potential stock market downturns. While yield spreads have widened, they remain well below the long-term averages. However, if recession risks increase due to tariffs, sentiment, or illiquidity, those yield spreads will widen further.

Another period of heightened volatility in the markets reminds us why tax management can be such an essential part of fixed income investing.

It was a wild week on Wall Street after President Donald Trump announced a broad new tariff policy that went beyond what most analysts had anticipated, spurring a plunge in both stock and bond markets.

Spending cuts, tariffs and recession risk—Jan van Eck’s latest outlook breaks down what to watch and why he’s focused on gold, bitcoin, semiconductors and India.

Concerns about a trade war have rattled markets so far in 2025, but we believe fixed income investors need to be patient, stay defensive, and see how things evolve before making any big decisions.

Given the abundance of market uncertainty, it may be best to adhere to Treasuries, or for additional yield, to municipal bonds.

Last week President Trump announced tariffs on nearly all US trading partners, a move that far exceeded the most pessimistic expectations of market participants.

A Wall Street axiom states that the stock markets lead the economy by about six months. While not a perfect predictor, the stock market reacts to investor expectations about future corporate earnings, economic activity, interest rates, and inflation.

Callable bonds make up a large share of the bond market—and introduce one more variable into the bond-investing process.

An enduring image from 2024 will be the capture of the SpaceX booster rocket by the Mechazilla robot arms on its return to Earth.

Last week, we noted that “nothing good happens below the 200-DMA,” and the tariff-induced market crash this past week confirmed that statement. However, we also noted that over the last 30 years, previous failures at the 200-DMA have also often been buying opportunities.

Moving forward, investors may want to keep investment-grade options close with a few from Vanguard to consider.

The tariff chaos continues … but the economy remains intact. For now.

The stock market faces severe downside risk ahead, and the U.S. is constrained in the unsystematic monetary and fiscal expansion that both amplified that bubble and fueled record but wholly impermanent corporate profit margins. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy now faces an imminent recession, and if we fail to be vigilant, we, once united Americans, risk losing what is far greater and more valuable than money.

In the report, Fixed income portfolio managers Brent Olson and Tim Winstone reflect on the initial credit market response to President Trump’s tariffs.

The combination of slowing economic growth and stubborn inflation, combined with uncertainty about U.S. tariff policy, is keeping investors cautious.

To summarize the market action of March of 2025: U.S. stocks (SPX) did poorly, international stocks (especially Europe, VGK) did well in dollar terms, and gold (IAU) did spectacularly well. The main culprit appears to market concerns about the Trump administration’s tariff policies.

With nearly half of the bond market now outside of the Agg, a number of opportunities exist for those seeking exposure beyond the benchmark.

Active ETFs just topped the $1 trillion threshold, making up nearly 10% of the total ETF pie. Enhanced yield is the name of the game.

The tariffs that the U.S. is imposing on its trading partners will bring about several costs that are important for investors to understand. Some of those costs are inherent to what a tariff is, while others stem from the fact that U.S. industrial policy has, and looks to continue to have, a huge amount of uncertainty associated with it.

Turbulence is expected to continue until markets gain more clarity.

2025 has been marked by U.S. tariff news, geopolitical tensions and market volatility. Recent comments by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and President Donald Trump seem to confirm that the “Trump put” of his first presidential term is no longer in place.

Since mid-January, a new political regime in Washington has shaken the geopolitical landscape and global markets. In this volatile environment, bonds have performed well, resuming their traditional role as ballast against falling stock prices and attracting strong demand from investors.

Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.

The world has entered a period of geopolitical uncertainty, with the U.S. now at the center of the storm.

Fixed income investors can opt for corporate bonds to maximize yield opportunities without sacrificing too much credit risk.

In the current installment of The Roundup, Oaktree experts explore various investment risks and opportunities, including the heightened demand for mezzanine financing, potential entry points for special situations investors, the limited competition for unrated asset-backed finance investments, and the growing need for specialized life sciences lenders.

Economic activity hit a soft patch in the first quarter—whether it was fueled by the big pullback in confidence or one-off factors such as cold weather, a harsh flu season and an acceleration of imports ahead of pre- announced tariffs, our economist expects the slowdown will prove short-lived.

Portfolio Managers John Kerschner, Nick Childs, and Jessica Shill discuss the AAA CLO ETF landscape and highlight the most important considerations for investors.

Inflation uncertainty makes it tricky to foresee the Fed's next moves. In moments like these, it may be time to turn to active fixed income.

The stock market sell-off appears to be signaling a recession. However, we believe the bond market disagrees.

With a name reflecting its expertise in smart indexing, Indexperts is carving out a balanced strategy that recognizes market realities.

Investment-grade floating-rate notes prices tend to be more stable than their fixed-rate counterparts, so they may be worth considering during periods of volatility.

The equity market tends to see a correction every 18 months. If it's not a recession-induced bear market, it may be a buying opportunity.

It's been full steam ahead for active ETFs, with total assets now rapidly approaching the $1 trillion milestone.

Tariffs among developed countries could mean emerging market (EM) assets like bonds could garner interest.

One of the textbook drivers of alpha is an information edge. Having more information, advanced ways to use that information, and the ability to react to it before anyone else has been a massive advantage throughout the history of markets.

Several indicators used by fixed income investors to measure value have recently taken a positive turn, potentially flashing an entry-point opportunity for investors with money to put to work.

Unpredictable U.S. tariff policy has heightened concerns about a potential U.S. economic recession.

One of the biggest challenges investors face today is navigating the most concentrated U.S. stock market in history, where the largest stocks represent a record share of total market value.

News related to tariffs, DOGE, geopolitical unrest, NVIDIA earnings, and more significantly impacted U.S. stock markets recently, with the S&P 500 retreating over 2.5% during the second half of February. There are signs that meaningful structural shifts are taking place in the market.

The 60/40 portfolio, where 60% is invested in stocks and 40% in bonds, is the initial starting point for many portfolios. The exact asset mix is often adjusted based on an investor’s time horizon, risk tolerance, and financial goals, but the simple, proportional stock-bond combination is what is often considered a “balanced” portfolio.

At the start of the year, our Investment Strategy Committee outlook was positive for both the economy and the equity market, supported by strong consumer, labor market, and corporate fundamentals.

Ever since interest rates got up off the floor in 2022, there’s been increased interest in credit, and that’s why I’m devoting this memo to it. It’ll come a little closer than usual to “talking my book,” but I think the subject justifies that.

The value today of quality bond exposure in your high yield portfolio.

One of the most referenced valuation measures is Dr. Robert Shiller’s Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings Ratio, known as CAPE.

As daily headlines drive volatility, the market has avoided overreacting thus far.

We manage risk tactically over the short-term by investing across a broad array of themes and asset classes including cash.

Unlike most of the rest of the world, I will attempt to minimize all there is to say about the beginning of the next 4 years, as the persistent yack and what to make of it reverberates in all corners of the financial globe.

A holistic approach may help insurance investors navigate an expansive opportunity set.

February’s market turbulence saw investors pivot toward defensive strategies as policy uncertainty intensified, driving a broad market rotation from mega-cap tech stocks to bonds, gold, and international equities.

Should you avoid lower-rated, riskier investments like high-yield corporate bonds or bank loans? Not necessarily, but you should understand the risks.

In the report, John Kerschner, Head of US Securitized Products & Portfolio Manager, and John Lloyd, Lead for the Multi-Sector Credit Strategies & Portfolio Manager, review the best-performing U.S. fixed income sectors of 2024 – what worked, what didn’t, and what it means for investors going forward.

We recently sat down with Justin Owens, our senior director and co-head of strategic asset allocation, to discuss the next phase of liability-driven investing (LDI) and the key trends driving this evolution. Below is a recap of our conversation.

Investors should not be overly distracted by the recent spate of political headlines and social media updates.

When constructing a target-date fund (TDF) glide path, providers have many decisions to make, such as what asset classes to include, when to include them, and how much to allocate to each.