Advisors continue to seek out diversified strategies to gain stable income this year. In addition to the growing universe of fixed income mutual funds and ETFs, there are other alternatives to consider.
Consider gaining AI market exposure through data center ABS (asset-backed securities) and CMBS (commercial mortgage-backed securities).
Last week’s economic data reflected resilience and uncertainty. Key indicators pointed to ongoing expansion.
Seven of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through February 10, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 9.68%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 9.42% while France's CAC 40 is in third with a year to date gain of 8.28%.
Alex Mackey of MFS delved into the active bond strategies underpinning MFSB and MFSM in the recent Q1 2025 Fixed Income Symposium.
Multiple jobholders account for 5.3% of civilian employment. The survey captures data for four subcategories of the multi-job workforce, the relative sizes of which we've illustrated in a pie chart.
Let's take a close look at January's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. The latest data shows that 83.0% of total employed workers are full-time (35+ hours) and 17.0% of total employed workers are part-time (<35 hours).
Adding cash-flow-matched bond strategies to a total return strategy appears to improve total return relative to risk by reducing the likelihood of poor outcomes.
Whether its crypto last quarter or the Mag Seven-led S&P of the past two years, FOMO is natural when we see big gains. Hey, we’re all human.
In this note, we'd like to share our analysis of one potential solution we've been hearing about a lot lately. It involves leveraged direct index tax-loss harvesting.
If you’re looking to a popular stock market tracker like the S&P 500 Index to gauge the effect of President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs, don’t. It’s likely to be insulated from much of the fallout and therefore fail to reflect the true impact on US businesses.
Markets, as many of you are aware, don’t like uncertainty. And right now, there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy.
Since our last update of our ‘Three Tactical Rules’ on November 26, 2024, equity markets are up slightly.
Broadcom looks to build off last year's strength, which should give bullish traders another year of potential gains.
The yield on the 10-year note ended February 7, 2025 at 4.49%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 4.29% and the 30-year note ended at 4.69%.
We hope you enjoy the latest newsletter from Harold Evensky.
The first month of 2025 is now in the rearview mirror, and investors recently experienced a fortnight (14 days) of headline-making activity, ranging from President Trump taking office, the January FOMC meeting, and of course, the developments surrounding the DeepSeek news.
Raymond James CIO Larry Adam looks at how the proposed tariffs may impact the economy and financial markets.
In a first quarter 2025 asset allocation report, Confluence expects resilient economic growth in the short term.
VettaFi discusses tariffs and transportation ETFs.
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the January 2025 close.
2025's complex market environment lays the groundwork for active bond strategies to potentially shine, according to MFS and AllianceBernstein.
The equity market appears to be showing signs of broadening beyond technology.
Many market observers are forecasting leadership from active fixed income exchange traded funds this year.
The ETF industry reached a significant milestone on Wednesday, as there are now over 4,000 ETFs trading at the same time.
The Ivy Portfolio is based on the asset allocation strategy used by endowment funds from Harvard and Yale. It is an equally weighted portfolio constructed with 5 ETFs that feature a mix of different asset classes. By allocating across different asset classes, diversification is achieved, and risk is reduced.
Last week, DeepSeek’s emergence as an AI threat wiped half a trillion dollars of value off Nvidia Corp. Last night, Alphabet Inc.’s disappointing earnings sparked questions about its capital expenditures and put its stock on pace for the worst drop in more than a year.
Vanguard Group Inc.’s biggest salvo yet in its campaign to cut fees for the investing masses presents industry rivals with a painful choice.
The Census Bureau released its latest quarterly report for Q4 2024 showing the latest homeownership rate is at 65.7%, up from Q3 but practically unchanged from a year ago.
The January U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 52.9, slightly above the 52.8 forecast. The reading marks the 24th consecutive month of expansion but is the weakest since April.
Stocks rallied in early 2025 as market leadership shifted, with Large Cap Value outperforming growth stocks, while a major AI development from China triggered a sell-off in U.S. technology stocks, raising concerns about the future of AI leadership and high-end chip demand. For investors the implications are more significant for fixed income portfolios, while equities should continue to do well as long as the labor market holds up.
In the case of bond ETFs, it was a strong year in 2024, and key areas could be touch points for investment opportunities.
Mortgage-backed securities and MTGP’s steadiness against the backdrop of Fannie/Freddie privatization talk could be seen as a positive.
Gas prices inched down this week. As of February 3rd, the price of regular and premium gas were each down 1 cent from the previous week. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $73.16, unchanged from last week.
Investors plowed record cash into a pair of leveraged loan ETFs last week, in a high-conviction bet that the Federal Reserve will be slow to slash interest rates.
Despite being targeted by Beijing in retaliation to US trade tariffs, Alphabet Inc.’s durable growth and attractive valuation may offer insulation from all the geopolitical uncertainty.
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why gold may continue to advance in 2025 despite a stronger dollar and elevated real rate environment.
The moving average for vehicle sales per capita series peaked in August 1978. Fast forward more than 45 years, it is now down 36.9% from that peak.
Economic indicator SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) fell 1.01% last week while the Invesco S&P 500® Equal Weight ETF (RSP) was down 0.53%.
We suspect many investors today think the “American Exceptionalism” they studied in high school or college no longer applies to the U.S.
The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for December showed that core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 2.8%. The December core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 3.2%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.
While it’s true that every administration brings policy shifts that can directly impact retirement savings, the speed and breadth of what is currently being proposed feels like we are headed into unprecedented territory.
As of January 31, 2025, the 10-year note was 406 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52% reached on August 4, 2020.
Vanguard Group has slashed the fees for dozens of its mutual funds and ETFs in a record move that’s likely to send a shock wave through the asset management industry.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 50.9 in January, pushing the index into expansion territory for the first time since October 2022. The latest reading was better than the forecast of 49.3.
The manufacturing sector started the new year with renewed expansion, as the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ rose to 51.2 in January from 49.4 in December.
A surprise is a completely unexpected outcome. By definition, a surprise is improbable, and its occurrence is rare. It seems strange then to try to predict three of them every year.
The artificial intelligence (AI) revolution is moving at lightning speed, and one of the biggest stories this past week underscores just how critical the technology has become—not just for Silicon Valley, but for America’s national security and global competitiveness.
Karen Carpenter was one the greatest singers of my lifetime. One of her biggest hits was called, “Top of the World.” The key line of the song says, “I’m on top of the world looking down on creation and the only explanation I can find, is the love that I’ve found ever since you’ve been around, you most put me at the top of the world!”
Jeff and Ron Muhlenkamp discuss ongoing inflation and modest but steady GDP growth. In 2024 stock markets mirrored 2023, with AI-related tech companies driving growth, while long-term bonds yielded little.
For the first time since the Fed began cutting rates at their September FOMC meeting, the voting members decided to keep rates unchanged to begin 2025.
The fourth quarter was particularly volatile in fixed income markets, with U.S. government bond yields surging on worries over the rising fiscal deficit and the potential for inflation to reaccelerate.
The higher yields they currently offer can be a benefit for income-oriented investors, but those yields reflect the additional risks they face.
Looking back to 2024, global equity markets remained resilient despite a challenging final few weeks. U.S. equities led both annually and quarterly, buoyed by robust corporate earnings, supportive fiscal policies and market optimism following the Republicans’ red sweep in November.
Valid until the market close on February 28, 2025.
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
Meta Platforms Inc. shares are on track for their longest streak of daily gains in almost a decade, with its latest earnings report adding to investor confidence about its strategy with artificial intelligence.
Concerns over Apple Inc.’s first-quarter results have met with 11th-hour optimism that it could eventually benefit from the same force that recently wreaked havoc on the tech sector.
A small band of Wall Street skeptics are moving to protect their credit portfolios against a market priced like nothing in the economy could possibly go wrong.
In the report, Portfolio Managers Andy Acker and Dan Lyons explain the reasons for healthcare’s recent underperformance and why they believe valuations are now disconnected from the sector’s long-term prospects.
Investors may be at a crossroad in early 2025. US equities have recovered from the 2022 bear market with two exceptional years of +25% returns.
Despite continued underperformance in 2024, the biotech sector enters 2025 with a brighter outlook driven by groundbreaking innovations like mRNA cancer vaccines and CRISPR-based therapies.
Economic indicators provide insight into the overall health and performance of the economy. They are closely watched by many.
What does Nvidia’s historic rout mean for investors?
Can corporate profits reignite after a rocky 2024? This earnings season could either fuel the market’s fire or leave it gasping for air.
Concerns about the outlook for Treasuries have fueled a resurgence of interest in the Magnificent 7 as a target for safe-haven flows.
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR)unexpectedly fell 5.5% in December to 74.2, the first monthly decline since July. Pending home sales were expected to be unchanged from the previous month. The index is down 5.0% from one year ago.
In today’s post, we will examine the money supply represented by M2, the Federal budget deficit, the Fed’s previous adventures with QE, and the correlation to inflation.
In this article, we will demonstrate how the use of daily options within a covered call strategy has the potential to generate substantial income while also targeting the total return of equities.
Fixed income comes into 2025 on the heels of an explosive 2024. But with 2025’s landscape shifting, investors need guidance.
While planning for a CMA (Capital Market Assumptions) at the close of the year—and in the wake of an unexpected U.S. election result—it’s tempting to adopt a short-term perspective, focusing on the uncertainties and anxieties generated by President-elect Trump’s policies and their potentially disruptive impact on the economy and the market.
Calamos’ Matt Kaufman explains the mechanics and rationale behind the Calamos Bitcoin Structured Alt Protection ETF – January (CBOJ). VettaFi’s Roxanna Islam examines the best-performing ETFs so far this year and discusses a recent surge of legacy asset managers entering the ETF space.
Consumer attitudes are measured by two monthly surveys: the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). In January, the MCSI fell for the first time in six months to 71.1. Meanwhile, the CCI dropped for a second straight month to 104.1.
Pacific Investment Management Co. is among asset managers looking at buying a portion of $3 billion of debt tied to Elon Musk’s buyout of X, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
Tech leaders gathered at the White House to announce Stargate Project, a new venture that plans to invest $500 billion over the next four years on AI infrastructure and datacenters.
Fifth district manufacturing activity remained soft in January, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index rose to -4 this month from -10 in December. This month's reading was better than the forecast of -13 and is the highest reading since May.
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® fell further in January, dropping for a second straight month. The index decreased to 104.1 this month from December's upwardly revised 109.5. This month's reading was lower than the 105.7 forecast.
Home prices continued to trend upwards in November as the benchmark national index rose for the 22nd consecutive month to a new all-time high. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.4% increase MoM, and a 3.8% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to 0.2% and YoY fell to -1.1%.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) rose to 433.4 in November, reaching a new all-time high. U.S. house prices were up 0.3 from the previous month and are up 4.2% from one year ago. After adjusting for inflation, the real index was flat month-over-month and up 2.6% year-over-year.
The Q4 earnings season continued on a positive note after big banks and other financials struck a bullish tone in the first two weeks of reporting.
Not all companies in emerging markets will be hurt by President Trump’s agenda. Here’s what equity investors should look for.
Exchange-traded fund investors who placed record bets on the US technology space last week are getting crushed Monday as anxiety over competition from a Chinese startup’s AI model is hitting tech stocks hard.
Chinese artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek’s latest AI model sparked a $1 trillion rout in US and European technology stocks, as investors questioned bloated valuations for some of America’s biggest companies.
Are U.S. stocks in a massive valuation bubble? We don’t think so. Will U.S. stocks outperform their European and Asian counterparts over the next 10 years? Maybe.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies tumbled, following technology stocks lower, as the emergence of a new Chinese artificial-intelligence model triggered a global selloff in riskier assets.
Last year, the chief executive officer of a leading AI firm was asked at a private Silicon Valley dinner about how his company differentiated from others building “foundation models,” the systems underpinning chatbots like ChatGPT.
Today, if you only invest in the US, you’re experiencing two hells. Your stocks are underperforming, and even inexpensive stocks are expensive. Yes, welcome to double hell. European stocks, however, offer paradise today.
The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for January. The latest general business activity index came in at 14.1, the highest level for the index since October 2021. This marks the second consecutive month in expansion territory following 31 straight months of contraction.
The December release for new home sales from the Census Bureau came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 698,000 units, beating the 669,000 forecast. New home sales are up 3.6% from a revised rate of 674,000 in November and are up 6.7% from one year ago.
The Second Trump Era has begun. If you are confident about what it will bring (either good or bad), I would like to gently suggest you reconsider. None of us should be sure what is coming.
Markets have responded with gusto since November’s presidential election, especially in a few key—and perhaps expected—industries. The biggest winner so far is the automobile industry...
Exchange-Traded Products
Income Investment Strategy Symposium
Advisors continue to seek out diversified strategies to gain stable income this year. In addition to the growing universe of fixed income mutual funds and ETFs, there are other alternatives to consider.
Securitizing AI: The Role of Data Center ABS & CMBS
Consider gaining AI market exposure through data center ABS (asset-backed securities) and CMBS (commercial mortgage-backed securities).
Weekly Economic Snapshot: Jobs, Inflation, & Sentiment Keep Markets on Edge
Last week’s economic data reflected resilience and uncertainty. Key indicators pointed to ongoing expansion.
World Markets Watchlist: February 10, 2025
Seven of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through February 10, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 9.68%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 9.42% while France's CAC 40 is in third with a year to date gain of 8.28%.
MFS Brings Signature Bond Mutual Fund Strategies to ETFs
Alex Mackey of MFS delved into the active bond strategies underpinning MFSB and MFSM in the recent Q1 2025 Fixed Income Symposium.
Multiple Jobholders Account for 5.3% of Workers in January 2025
Multiple jobholders account for 5.3% of civilian employment. The survey captures data for four subcategories of the multi-job workforce, the relative sizes of which we've illustrated in a pie chart.
A Closer Look at Full-time and Part-time Employment: January 2025
Let's take a close look at January's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. The latest data shows that 83.0% of total employed workers are full-time (35+ hours) and 17.0% of total employed workers are part-time (<35 hours).
Putting ‘Fixed Income’ Back Into Fixed Income: Cash-Flow-Matched Bond Strategies for Retirees
Adding cash-flow-matched bond strategies to a total return strategy appears to improve total return relative to risk by reducing the likelihood of poor outcomes.
The Mirage of More: Why Chasing Big Returns and Bold Bets Undermine Long-Term Success
Whether its crypto last quarter or the Mag Seven-led S&P of the past two years, FOMO is natural when we see big gains. Hey, we’re all human.
Out of the Frying Pan and Into the Fire: Selling a Highly Appreciated Stock Without Paying Taxes?
In this note, we'd like to share our analysis of one potential solution we've been hearing about a lot lately. It involves leveraged direct index tax-loss harvesting.
The S&P 500 Is Too Big to Falter on Trump’s Tariffs
If you’re looking to a popular stock market tracker like the S&P 500 Index to gauge the effect of President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs, don’t. It’s likely to be insulated from much of the fallout and therefore fail to reflect the true impact on US businesses.
Could Trump’s Tariff Revenues Fund a New U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund?
Markets, as many of you are aware, don’t like uncertainty. And right now, there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy.
Tactical Rules Turn Bullish
Since our last update of our ‘Three Tactical Rules’ on November 26, 2024, equity markets are up slightly.
Broadcom Looks to Build Off Last Year's Strength
Broadcom looks to build off last year's strength, which should give bullish traders another year of potential gains.
Treasury Yields Snapshot: February 7, 2025
The yield on the 10-year note ended February 7, 2025 at 4.49%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 4.29% and the 30-year note ended at 4.69%.
Newsletter January 2025
We hope you enjoy the latest newsletter from Harold Evensky.
Trump, Powell and Rates: A Look Ahead
The first month of 2025 is now in the rearview mirror, and investors recently experienced a fortnight (14 days) of headline-making activity, ranging from President Trump taking office, the January FOMC meeting, and of course, the developments surrounding the DeepSeek news.
Potential Impact of Tariffs Weighing on Markets, Corporations
Raymond James CIO Larry Adam looks at how the proposed tariffs may impact the economy and financial markets.
Confluence Asset Allocation Quarterly (First Quarter 2025)
In a first quarter 2025 asset allocation report, Confluence expects resilient economic growth in the short term.
Transportation ETFs: Tariffs Take the Wheel
VettaFi discusses tariffs and transportation ETFs.
The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since 2000 Highs as of January 2025
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the January 2025 close.
Active Managers Talk Bond Investing in 2025
2025's complex market environment lays the groundwork for active bond strategies to potentially shine, according to MFS and AllianceBernstein.
Market Performance Reflects Continued Optimism for US Economy
The equity market appears to be showing signs of broadening beyond technology.
Active Fixed Income ETFs Can Extend Momentum in 2025
Many market observers are forecasting leadership from active fixed income exchange traded funds this year.
U.S. ETF Count Reaches 4,000 With Launches From Cohen & Steers, Thornburg & More
The ETF industry reached a significant milestone on Wednesday, as there are now over 4,000 ETFs trading at the same time.
Moving Averages of the Ivy Portfolio and S&P 500: January 2025
The Ivy Portfolio is based on the asset allocation strategy used by endowment funds from Harvard and Yale. It is an equally weighted portfolio constructed with 5 ETFs that feature a mix of different asset classes. By allocating across different asset classes, diversification is achieved, and risk is reduced.
Magnificent Seven’s Slowing Growth Threatens S&P 500 Rally
Last week, DeepSeek’s emergence as an AI threat wiped half a trillion dollars of value off Nvidia Corp. Last night, Alphabet Inc.’s disappointing earnings sparked questions about its capital expenditures and put its stock on pace for the worst drop in more than a year.
Vanguard’s Record Fee Cut Puts Rivals BlackRock, Invesco in Tough Spot
Vanguard Group Inc.’s biggest salvo yet in its campaign to cut fees for the investing masses presents industry rivals with a painful choice.
Home Ownership Rate: 65.7% in Q4 2024
The Census Bureau released its latest quarterly report for Q4 2024 showing the latest homeownership rate is at 65.7%, up from Q3 but practically unchanged from a year ago.
S&P Global Services PMI: Weakest Expansion Since April
The January U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 52.9, slightly above the 52.8 forecast. The reading marks the 24th consecutive month of expansion but is the weakest since April.
Stocks Rally in Early ’25, New Winners Emerge
Stocks rallied in early 2025 as market leadership shifted, with Large Cap Value outperforming growth stocks, while a major AI development from China triggered a sell-off in U.S. technology stocks, raising concerns about the future of AI leadership and high-end chip demand. For investors the implications are more significant for fixed income portfolios, while equities should continue to do well as long as the labor market holds up.
2 Funds to Ponder After a Strong Year for Bond ETFs
In the case of bond ETFs, it was a strong year in 2024, and key areas could be touch points for investment opportunities.
Mortgage-Backed Securities Don’t Need GSE Privatization to Deliver for Investors
Mortgage-backed securities and MTGP’s steadiness against the backdrop of Fannie/Freddie privatization talk could be seen as a positive.
Gasoline Prices Inch Down From Last Week
Gas prices inched down this week. As of February 3rd, the price of regular and premium gas were each down 1 cent from the previous week. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $73.16, unchanged from last week.
Traders Rush to Safety in Loan ETFs Again on Interest-Rate Pain
Investors plowed record cash into a pair of leveraged loan ETFs last week, in a high-conviction bet that the Federal Reserve will be slow to slash interest rates.
Alphabet’s Discounted Valuation Is an Antidote to Tariff Risk
Despite being targeted by Beijing in retaliation to US trade tariffs, Alphabet Inc.’s durable growth and attractive valuation may offer insulation from all the geopolitical uncertainty.
Stay Long Gold, Just Not as a Hedge
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why gold may continue to advance in 2025 despite a stronger dollar and elevated real rate environment.
Vehicle Sales: January 2025
The moving average for vehicle sales per capita series peaked in August 1978. Fast forward more than 45 years, it is now down 36.9% from that peak.
Weekly Economic Snapshot: Growth, Inflation & Confidence Amid Market Volatility
Economic indicator SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) fell 1.01% last week while the Invesco S&P 500® Equal Weight ETF (RSP) was down 0.53%.
American Exceptionalism and the Markets
We suspect many investors today think the “American Exceptionalism” they studied in high school or college no longer applies to the U.S.
Two Measures of Inflation: December 2024
The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for December showed that core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 2.8%. The December core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 3.2%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.
How a Transformed Washington May Change Retirement Savings
While it’s true that every administration brings policy shifts that can directly impact retirement savings, the speed and breadth of what is currently being proposed feels like we are headed into unprecedented territory.
Treasury Yields Long-Term Perspective: January 2025
As of January 31, 2025, the 10-year note was 406 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52% reached on August 4, 2020.
Vanguard’s Average Fee Is Now Just 0.07% After Biggest-Ever Cut
Vanguard Group has slashed the fees for dozens of its mutual funds and ETFs in a record move that’s likely to send a shock wave through the asset management industry.
ISM Manufacturing Index Expands for First Time Since 2022
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 50.9 in January, pushing the index into expansion territory for the first time since October 2022. The latest reading was better than the forecast of 49.3.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Renewed Expansion to Start New Year
The manufacturing sector started the new year with renewed expansion, as the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ rose to 51.2 in January from 49.4 in December.
Three Surprises for 2025: Overcoming One-way Investor Sentiment
A surprise is a completely unexpected outcome. By definition, a surprise is improbable, and its occurrence is rare. It seems strange then to try to predict three of them every year.
China’s AI Breakthrough Sends NVIDIA Reeling and Sparks National Security Fears
The artificial intelligence (AI) revolution is moving at lightning speed, and one of the biggest stories this past week underscores just how critical the technology has become—not just for Silicon Valley, but for America’s national security and global competitiveness.
Index Mania: On Top of the World
Karen Carpenter was one the greatest singers of my lifetime. One of her biggest hits was called, “Top of the World.” The key line of the song says, “I’m on top of the world looking down on creation and the only explanation I can find, is the love that I’ve found ever since you’ve been around, you most put me at the top of the world!”
Quarterly Market Commentary – January 2025
Jeff and Ron Muhlenkamp discuss ongoing inflation and modest but steady GDP growth. In 2024 stock markets mirrored 2023, with AI-related tech companies driving growth, while long-term bonds yielded little.
Fed Watch: A Pause That Refreshes?
For the first time since the Fed began cutting rates at their September FOMC meeting, the voting members decided to keep rates unchanged to begin 2025.
Quarterly Trading Report – Q4 2024: Volatility returns
The fourth quarter was particularly volatile in fixed income markets, with U.S. government bond yields surging on worries over the rising fiscal deficit and the potential for inflation to reaccelerate.
Are Preferred Securities Still Attractive?
The higher yields they currently offer can be a benefit for income-oriented investors, but those yields reflect the additional risks they face.
Looking Back at Equity Factors in Q4 2024 with WisdomTree
Looking back to 2024, global equity markets remained resilient despite a challenging final few weeks. U.S. equities led both annually and quarterly, buoyed by robust corporate earnings, supportive fiscal policies and market optimism following the Republicans’ red sweep in November.
Moving Averages: S&P Finishes January 2025 Up 2.70%
Valid until the market close on February 28, 2025.
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
Meta’s Aggressive AI Bet Sets Up Stock’s Longest Gain Since 2015
Meta Platforms Inc. shares are on track for their longest streak of daily gains in almost a decade, with its latest earnings report adding to investor confidence about its strategy with artificial intelligence.
Apple’s Flagging AI Hopes Get Revival From DeepSeek’s Emergence
Concerns over Apple Inc.’s first-quarter results have met with 11th-hour optimism that it could eventually benefit from the same force that recently wreaked havoc on the tech sector.
Credit Skeptics Place a $10 Billion Bet in High-Priced Market
A small band of Wall Street skeptics are moving to protect their credit portfolios against a market priced like nothing in the economy could possibly go wrong.
Trailing the S&P 500, Healthcare Stocks Look Deeply Undervalued
In the report, Portfolio Managers Andy Acker and Dan Lyons explain the reasons for healthcare’s recent underperformance and why they believe valuations are now disconnected from the sector’s long-term prospects.
2025 Equity and Volatility Outlook: Is the US Equity Investor at a Crossroad?
Investors may be at a crossroad in early 2025. US equities have recovered from the 2022 bear market with two exceptional years of +25% returns.
From Underperformance to Opportunity: Biotech's Case for 2025
Despite continued underperformance in 2024, the biotech sector enters 2025 with a brighter outlook driven by groundbreaking innovations like mRNA cancer vaccines and CRISPR-based therapies.
Weekly Economic Snapshot: Signs of Strength & Softness
Economic indicators provide insight into the overall health and performance of the economy. They are closely watched by many.
AI in Flux
What does Nvidia’s historic rout mean for investors?
Trading Q4 Earnings: Will Bulls Fly or Just Get Gored?
Can corporate profits reignite after a rocky 2024? This earnings season could either fuel the market’s fire or leave it gasping for air.
Magnificent 7 to the Rescue!
Concerns about the outlook for Treasuries have fueled a resurgence of interest in the Magnificent 7 as a target for safe-haven flows.
Pending Home Sales Unexpectedly Fall for First Time in Five Months
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR)unexpectedly fell 5.5% in December to 74.2, the first monthly decline since July. Pending home sales were expected to be unchanged from the previous month. The index is down 5.0% from one year ago.
Do Money Supply, Deficit And QE Create Inflation?
In today’s post, we will examine the money supply represented by M2, the Federal budget deficit, the Fed’s previous adventures with QE, and the correlation to inflation.
Balancing Yield & Total Return
In this article, we will demonstrate how the use of daily options within a covered call strategy has the potential to generate substantial income while also targeting the total return of equities.
How Should Investors Approach Fixed Income in 2025?
Fixed income comes into 2025 on the heels of an explosive 2024. But with 2025’s landscape shifting, investors need guidance.
Missing the Forest For the Tree: Lumen R4A Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions
While planning for a CMA (Capital Market Assumptions) at the close of the year—and in the wake of an unexpected U.S. election result—it’s tempting to adopt a short-term perspective, focusing on the uncertainties and anxieties generated by President-elect Trump’s policies and their potentially disruptive impact on the economy and the market.
Calamos’ Matt Kaufman Explains World’s First 100% Downside Protected Bitcoin ETF
Calamos’ Matt Kaufman explains the mechanics and rationale behind the Calamos Bitcoin Structured Alt Protection ETF – January (CBOJ). VettaFi’s Roxanna Islam examines the best-performing ETFs so far this year and discusses a recent surge of legacy asset managers entering the ETF space.
Two Measures of Consumer Attitudes: January 2025
Consumer attitudes are measured by two monthly surveys: the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). In January, the MCSI fell for the first time in six months to 71.1. Meanwhile, the CCI dropped for a second straight month to 104.1.
Pimco, Apollo Among Funds Looking at Next $3 Billion of X Debt
Pacific Investment Management Co. is among asset managers looking at buying a portion of $3 billion of debt tied to Elon Musk’s buyout of X, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
Disruptive Theme of the Week: ETF Plays on the Stargate Project
Tech leaders gathered at the White House to announce Stargate Project, a new venture that plans to invest $500 billion over the next four years on AI infrastructure and datacenters.
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Activity Remained Soft in January
Fifth district manufacturing activity remained soft in January, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index rose to -4 this month from -10 in December. This month's reading was better than the forecast of -13 and is the highest reading since May.
Consumer Confidence Falls Further in January
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® fell further in January, dropping for a second straight month. The index decreased to 104.1 this month from December's upwardly revised 109.5. This month's reading was lower than the 105.7 forecast.
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index: Hits 18th Consecutive All-Time High in November
Home prices continued to trend upwards in November as the benchmark national index rose for the 22nd consecutive month to a new all-time high. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.4% increase MoM, and a 3.8% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to 0.2% and YoY fell to -1.1%.
FHFA House Price Index Up 0.3% in November
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) rose to 433.4 in November, reaching a new all-time high. U.S. house prices were up 0.3 from the previous month and are up 4.2% from one year ago. After adjusting for inflation, the real index was flat month-over-month and up 2.6% year-over-year.
Can the Magnificent 7 Maintain an Upbeat Earnings Season
The Q4 earnings season continued on a positive note after big banks and other financials struck a bullish tone in the first two weeks of reporting.
How to Invest in Emerging Market Equities as New US Policies Bite
Not all companies in emerging markets will be hurt by President Trump’s agenda. Here’s what equity investors should look for.
Bullish Tech Traders Made Record Wrong-Way ETF Bets Before Rout
Exchange-traded fund investors who placed record bets on the US technology space last week are getting crushed Monday as anxiety over competition from a Chinese startup’s AI model is hitting tech stocks hard.
DeepSeek Buzz Puts Tech Shares on Track for $1 Trillion Drop
Chinese artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek’s latest AI model sparked a $1 trillion rout in US and European technology stocks, as investors questioned bloated valuations for some of America’s biggest companies.
The Mother of All Bubbles?
Are U.S. stocks in a massive valuation bubble? We don’t think so. Will U.S. stocks outperform their European and Asian counterparts over the next 10 years? Maybe.
Bitcoin Follows Tech Stocks Lower as New AI App Rattles Markets
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies tumbled, following technology stocks lower, as the emergence of a new Chinese artificial-intelligence model triggered a global selloff in riskier assets.
DeepSeek Shows Silicon Valley’s Huge Blindspot on AI
Last year, the chief executive officer of a leading AI firm was asked at a private Silicon Valley dinner about how his company differentiated from others building “foundation models,” the systems underpinning chatbots like ChatGPT.
Escaping Stock Market Double Hell
Today, if you only invest in the US, you’re experiencing two hells. Your stocks are underperforming, and even inexpensive stocks are expensive. Yes, welcome to double hell. European stocks, however, offer paradise today.
Dallas Fed Manufacturing: Business Activity Reaches Highest Level Since October 2021
The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for January. The latest general business activity index came in at 14.1, the highest level for the index since October 2021. This marks the second consecutive month in expansion territory following 31 straight months of contraction.
New Home Sales Up 3.6% in December; Beats Forecast
The December release for new home sales from the Census Bureau came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 698,000 units, beating the 669,000 forecast. New home sales are up 3.6% from a revised rate of 674,000 in November and are up 6.7% from one year ago.
Crucial Questions
The Second Trump Era has begun. If you are confident about what it will bring (either good or bad), I would like to gently suggest you reconsider. None of us should be sure what is coming.
Arctic Resource Boom Pits U.S. Against Russia and China in the New “Red Cold War”
Markets have responded with gusto since November’s presidential election, especially in a few key—and perhaps expected—industries. The biggest winner so far is the automobile industry...