Asian/European Markets

In this edition, Harold Evensky explores the challenges facing sustainable and active funds, the implications of the new DOL Fiduciary Rule, and the value of long-term performance projections. With candid observations and critical analysis--read on to gain perspective on navigating the complex world of investing, the importance of risk management, and the role of fiduciary advisors in securing your financial future.

A soft landing for the U.S. economy still appears to be the most likely outcome.

As more Chinese companies get comfortable paying dividends, investors may find new sources of equity return potential.

On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Director and Senior Investment Strategist Alex Cousley and ESG and Active Ownership Analyst Zoe Warganz discussed key takeaways from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

This week saw a nontech giant cross a unique milestone and a tech giant’s earnings report become a Mainstreet sensation.

As noted in this past weekend’s newsletter, following the “Yen Carry Trade” blowup just three weeks ago, the market has quickly reverted to more extreme short-term overbought conditions.

I asked my great friend and business partner David Bahnsen, who is about as politically wired as anyone and one of the truly great economic and investment minds, to reflect on the intersection of politics and markets. It is a quick, balanced, and reasonable read...

As I write this, gold continues to trade above $2,500 an ounce after surging past the psychologically important level for the first time ever in mid-August. For seasoned gold mining investors, this should be a moment of validation. After all, the yellow metal has long been seen as the ultimate hedge against economic uncertainty.

Copper has been trending lower since the middle of May, but supply disruptions in Latin America could help reverse that trend.

China's economic transformation presents both challenges and opportunities for global markets.

While short-term fluctuations and sudden selloffs have tested the markets, key indicators such as corporate profits, employment data, and economic resilience have held firm.

The path for lower rates in the U.S. has finally arrived.

Is the Japanese yen carry trade back on? Tough question. We think it is, now that the Bank of Japan has toned down its hawkish rhetoric. More on that later. Still, even if we are wrong, the reality is that the market will be talking about the violent ructions of August 2024 for the rest of our careers.

We analyze Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell’s comments about the potential for rate cuts in September and beyond.

The healthcare sector offers a compelling mix of defensive characteristics and growth potential driven by innovation. It also features ample dispersion that presents stock pickers with an opportunity to parse potential leaders and laggards in pursuit of above-market return.

High-yield bonds have been one of the best-performing bond investments so far this year, but there may be better entry points down the road.

The most glaring uncertainties today, which contributed to early August seeing some of the largest market moves in the last several years, are the risks associated with the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate.

Portfolio managers should always have good explanations for their underweight positions. These days, it matters more than ever.

A Soft Landing Scenario Is Still a Realistic Base Case.

Elevated budget deficits imply growing US Treasury issuance. Receding demand from central banks could leave more price-sensitive buyers to pick up the slack. Who are the buyers of US government debt, and how is the market responding? In part two of our series, let’s examine Treasury market supply and demand.

The 19th Century American author Mark Twain once said: “Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one’s lifetime.”

Artificial intelligence has the potential to reshape our economies, labor markets, societies, and politics. But despite the rosy forecasts of an AI-driven boom, history shows that technological advances rarely lead to immediate improvements in living standards and often lead to profound disruption.

Powell’s remarks in Jackson Hole were more dovish than I anticipated. Powell did not hedge; the clear direction of policy was lowering rates. The focus of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed's) narrative was shifting away from inflation risk to employment.

That anthem was characteristic of the era. After two decades of economic frustration, free market policies had prompted a surge of growth and a bull market for stocks. The captains of industry were corporate raiders, who purchased companies, slashed expenses, pushed up prices and reaped outsized rewards.

This week we take a not-so-random walk through the data, trying to simplify what is actually a fairly complex subject. I think it is quite fun, but also important. Let's dive in.

This week, before she accepted the Democratic Party’s nomination for president, Vice President Kamala Harris threw her support behind President Joe Biden’s tax proposals for 2025, which include a steep 44.6% capital gains rate and an unprecedented 25% tax on unrealized gains.

Recent economic data points have been mixed. On the more positive side of the ledger, there’s evidence that inflation is cooling and consumer spending remains sturdy. Conversely, the jobs market is cooling.

Are we going to have a recession? Are we already in a recession?

Since our last update of the Three Tactical Rules on June 25, 2024, equity markets have retraced most of the rally from the spring. The change in market sentiment came abruptly, due to the labor market showing signs of weakness as the number of jobs available per unemployed worker fell to 1.2 and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The recent market volatility has had a dramatic impact on our tactical rules.

Amid expectations of rate cuts from major central banks, managers are increasing their exposure to more cyclical and value-oriented names, including autos, transportation, and short-cycle industrials.

With its current course leading only to economic stagnation, the EU must establish a vision for a more dynamic, productive future. Above all, Europeans must answer a simple but critical question: What should the EU look like – in terms of innovation, the economy, security, and resilience – in a decade?

We explore how strong fundamentals and a resilient economy may position high-yield bonds as a potentially compelling choice in today’s fluctuating market.

It's been 38 years since I began my career on Wall Street and the lessons I learned along the way from some all-time investment greats always hold true.

Silver is an important component of solar photovoltaic (PV) panels, meaning that for China to reach its ambitious climate targets, it must import massive amounts of the white metal. In June alone, China spent over $228 million on silver, a new monthly record based on Bloomberg data going back to 2009.

U.S. consumer-price gains eased to 2.9% in July—the lowest increase since 2021

Powell will hint at normalizing monetary policy, but at a measured pace.

Markets were recently rattled by concerns the U.S. may slip into recession, but it's not clear that those fears are justified.

Portfolio Manager Jeremy Sutch, CFA, and Chief Investment Officer Sean Taylor assess the issues besetting the region’s key markets—from domestic challenges to geopolitical headwinds—as well as their structural strengths, and whether prospects may brighten with the onset of a U.S. rate-cutting cycle.

We manage risk within our strategic, long-term allocations based on diversification across equity, fixed income, and alternative assets.

The tea trade has lessons for today’s global commerce.