News headlines this week have been dominated by recession fears in the U.S., with the S&P 500 and the Magnificent 7 shedding value. Yet, amid this rising uncertainty, a positive story is emerging—the performance of European markets.
The share of US workers represented by a union ended 2024 at 9.9%. Strip out public sector workers and the rate was 5.9%.
Markets will be laser focused on Federal Reserve policy and economic projections next week, looking for signs about where interest rates are heading.
News related to tariffs, DOGE, geopolitical unrest, NVIDIA earnings, and more significantly impacted U.S. stock markets recently, with the S&P 500 retreating over 2.5% during the second half of February. There are signs that meaningful structural shifts are taking place in the market.
The 60/40 portfolio, where 60% is invested in stocks and 40% in bonds, is the initial starting point for many portfolios. The exact asset mix is often adjusted based on an investor’s time horizon, risk tolerance, and financial goals, but the simple, proportional stock-bond combination is what is often considered a “balanced” portfolio.
It was inevitable. Certain pieces of the market roared to insane valuations last year. Investors poured money into the markets and speculated stocks would keep rising forever. But, sentiment has shifted.
March came in like a lion, much to the bears’ delight. The S&P 500® plunged from its February 19 high on the heels of stern tariff talk and phrases like “a little bit of an adjustment period” from President Trump and the economy entering a “detox period,” as Treasury Secretary Bessent said last week.
US stocks gained after a volatile session as dip buyers emerged after a cooler-than-forecast February inflation report.
In a few short weeks, President Donald Trump has started silencing the buy-the-dip stock traders who set the tone on Wall Street for the better part of two decades.
After a search for a new chief executive officer that lasted more than three months, Intel Corp. has decided Lip-Bu Tan is the best choice to salvage the company’s future. He’ll take up the most difficult job in the chip business, Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday evening.
Three months into 2025, the U.S. IPO (initial public offering) market remains in a rut. Why? And, perhaps just as importantly, is a rebound still possible?
Recent US stock weakness may be related to a downturn in US economic data and headline shocks related to tariffs.
As we wade into March, market volatility is at the forefront, leaving investors grappling with uncertainty surrounding tariffs and mixed economic signals. Though the S&P 500 experienced a bounce towards February's end, it slipped 1% overall, revealing lingering challenges for iconic tech stocks and the broader equity landscape.
For decades, the U.S. dollar’s dominance has rested on two pillars: America’s deep capital markets and its global security alliances. Today, both are under strain.
Global investment themes are shifting toward infrastructure, cybersecurity and energy expansion as demand outpaces supply in key sectors.
Economic growth, earnings performance, and rising fiscal spending coupled with "America First" policies are driving international stock markets.
The EV shakeout is underway. When the dust settles, only a few players will remain. Many more will be relegated to the scrapyard of failed ambitions.
Modern direct indexing tools, using sophisticated technology, can identify tax loss opportunities on a daily or even minute-by-minute basis. As time progresses, I believe more advisors will see the potential of direct indexing.
Please join VettaFi and Nasdaq for a free one-hour, Asset Allocation Summit. Register today for this free summit and learn how to take advantage of all that asset allocation has to offer.
As more advisors look to private equity as an effective means of diversifying their clients’ portfolios and providing a fertile source of uncorrelated alpha, the middle market merits a closer look.
US Treasuries surged and investors boosted their bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts Monday as fear of a economic slowdown took hold across US markets.
Apple Inc. is preparing one of the most dramatic software overhauls in the company’s history, aiming to transform the interface of the iPhone, iPad and Mac for a new generation of users.
At the start of the year, our Investment Strategy Committee outlook was positive for both the economy and the equity market, supported by strong consumer, labor market, and corporate fundamentals.
Though mergers and acquisitions were expected to roar back in 2025 thanks to the new administration, uncertainty around Washington policy appears to be holding back new deals.
It is true that tariffs are a tax. It is also true that tariff policies have been volatile…on and off again…different carve outs…different countries…phone calls that change things. All of this clearly has an impact on the market. So, we are not surprised to see stock market volatility.
On this episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth talks about the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) with Money Life host Chuck Jaffe. The pair covered a range of topics related to the fund, providing investors with a deeper understanding of the ETF.
WEIRDness provides rewards – wealth, the pursuit of happiness, political freedom – that should cause it to succeed, over the long run, in the Darwinian competition between social systems that we call “history.” I hope it wins. WEIRD is good.
The PPA has made a mistake in designating an MA as a QDIA. Perhaps the drafters of the PPA were thinking about accounts that are actually managed, but those participants do not default, so that flavor of MA is not a QDIA, and is typically reserved for executives of the sponsoring firm.
A chorus of Wall Street strategists is warning about rising volatility in the stock market, with Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson the latest to sound the alarm on slumping economic growth amid President Donald Trump’s trade wars.
The U.S. has poured more than $120 billion into Ukraine since its war with Russia began three years ago, but with a new administration in Washington, that support is grinding to a halt.
The deal just announced for Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. is above all a massive transaction.
Will artificial intelligence take my job? This question is really starting to preoccupy me and millions of other white-collar workers. There’s even a word for it — FOBO, or fear of becoming obsolete — and, regrettably, our apprehension isn’t entirely unfounded.
The Nasdaq 100 Index sank into a correction on Friday, as investors continue to sour on the megacap technology stocks that led the stock market rally over the past two years.
Broadcom Inc. shares jumped after the chip supplier for Apple Inc. and other big tech companies gave an upbeat forecast, reassuring investors that spending on artificial intelligence computing remains healthy.
Cambria Investments CIO and founder Meb Faber explores David Swensen’s legendary investment strategy at Yale’s endowment, comparing its long-term performance to traditional portfolios and examining whether individual investors can replicate its success.
Q4 company earnings offered a lot to cheer at the start of the year, even as U.S. stocks contended with bouts of volatility.
In this video Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, a.k.a. Mr. Valuation will go over three super growth stocks that Chuck is often asked to cover but reluctant to because of valuation issues.
One month into President Donald Trump’s new term, financial markets are adjusting to a rapidly shifting economic and policy environment. Investors are watching closely as tariffs, interest rate expectations and regulatory changes take center stage.
Volatility is back in town. Tariff jitters and concerns about growth and inflation have resulted in an S&P 500® dip and the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) jumping above 20. Investors grapple with a very sanguine backdrop painted by the fourth-quarter earnings season and policy uncertainty.
As daily headlines drive volatility, the market has avoided overreacting thus far.
We view quarterly earnings season as a critical checkup on how markets are handling current challenges.
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the February 2025 close.
President Donald Trump is set to announce changes to the tariffs on Canada and Mexico he slapped on earlier this week, with potential relief for automobiles and other sectors, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Wednesday.
Unlike most of the rest of the world, I will attempt to minimize all there is to say about the beginning of the next 4 years, as the persistent yack and what to make of it reverberates in all corners of the financial globe.
According to Research Affiliates’ Asset Allocation Interactive (AAI) online capital market expectations tool, U.S. large-cap equities are expected to yield 3.4% annually over the next 10 years compared to 9.1% for EM equities and 7% for REITs. This left many webinar participants wondering, How does this extra return square with these assets having similar betas?
In this primer we define small cap growth funds, provide practical suggestions on how to invest in them, and explain why we believe they are a strategically important asset class.
While investors were fixated on inflation data Friday, the most significant surprise came from the advanced trade balance, which posted an unprecedented $37 billion deterioration
February’s market turbulence saw investors pivot toward defensive strategies as policy uncertainty intensified, driving a broad market rotation from mega-cap tech stocks to bonds, gold, and international equities.
Heightened economic uncertainty—propelled mainly by trade policy—has unearthed weakness in the equity market, with most pain felt under the market's surface.
Many major stocks connected to artificial intelligence have lost their luster of late, but perhaps none more so than Microsoft Corp.
US Treasuries are now outperforming stocks since Donald Trump was elected President, and some strategists say there’s room for those gains to run.
The Chinese artificial intelligence startup that rocked global markets earlier this year with its low-cost and high-performance AI models has outlined a potential path to major profitability.
We wrote in last month's letter that the U.S. stock market had to meet lofty earnings expectations to maintain its strong performance relative to global benchmarks, while the latter had a lower bar because of considerably cheaper valuation multiples and higher dividend yields.
The central question we want to address in this note is how to quantify how “price sensitive” insurance buyers should be, and in the context of insurance, what is the “price” they should be sensitive to?
The future is impossible to predict, but looking at the patterns around price/earnings ratios can provide some insight about what one might expect.
There’s an old Wall Street saying that “the stock market is not the economy.” That’s usually true. But, in this economic cycle, stock market gains have become an increasingly important driver of consumer spending, helping to fuel growth as other areas of the economy cool.
Today we are going to revisit that matrix updated through 2024. We will see what we got right and wrong, what further inferences we can now make and why I think it confirms my general shift in market strategy over the past few years.
For more than half a century, Warren Buffett has penned annual letters that chronicled economic and market shifts while underscoring Berkshire Hathaway's steady philosophy yet ever-evolving outlooks. With Buffett's 2024 letter freshly published, we take this opportunity to contrast his latest views with the remarkable continuity of his investment philosophy.
They’re a tempting proposition for anyone getting worried about the bull market’s longevity: exchange-traded funds that keep you from losing money — should stocks suddenly go south.
For some time now, there have been plenty of reasons to worry about Big Tech stocks. Stretched valuations after a big run up, heavy spending on artificial intelligence and lofty expectations for future growth. For months, though, none of it seemed to matter.
More than a century ago, then-Representative William McKinley pursued an aggressive tariff strategy that sought to protect American industry and reduce reliance on foreign imports. The McKinley Tariff Act of 1890 raised import duties to an average of 50%, one of the highest levels in U.S. history.
With major US policy change unfolding, flexibility across and within asset classes will be critical.
U.S. equity investors face an interesting allocation question in 2025: Why buy anything other than the S&P 500?
Tencent Holdings Ltd. became the latest tech company to unveil or enhance an AI model intended to eclipse DeepSeek, joining a spate of rollouts since the startup’s emergence energized the US-China technology race.
AI drug developer Recursion Pharmaceuticals Inc. is considering an Amazon Prime-style subscription model for selling its pipeline of medicines.
Valid until the market close on March 31, 2025
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
The perfect pairing for your U.S. large-cap portfolio?
The fourth quarter 2024 earnings season more-or-less wraps up this week with the final trickle of retailers coming in, as well as the highly anticipated report from Nvidia which was out yesterday afternoon.
The last time we heard from Amazon.com Inc. Chief Executive Officer Andy Jassy, he was breaking it to investors that his company was forecasting $100 billion in capital expenditures this year — the largest outlay of the tech giants in the pursuit of artificial intelligence.
Investor sentiment around small-cap companies is worse than it’s been in months. As it turns out, the mood isn’t much better inside their corporate boardrooms.
Investors hoping that Nvidia Corp.’s earnings would rejuvenate the artificial intelligence trade didn’t exactly get the report they wanted.
Nvidia Corp., the chipmaker at the center of an AI spending boom, delivered good-but-not-great quarterly numbers on Wednesday, drawing a muted response from investors accustomed to blowout results.
A diversified investment strategy that seeks to juice returns through leverage is finding new love among big money managers — more than a decade after it blew up during the 2008 financial crisis.
Nvidia, the biggest AI chip firm, reports Wednesday with investors watching sales of Nvidia's newest chips and worried about cheaper competition from systems like DeepSeek.
The U.S. economy remains structurally productive. American Economic Exceptionalism is powered by innovation and labor flexibility.
Nvidia Corp.’s earnings are set to dictate whether artificial intelligence can regain its status as the key driver behind Wall Street gains — or trigger more weakness after the Magnificent Seven group of technology stocks fell into correction territory.
We explore drivers that may contribute to continued outperformance of European stocks since the bull market began in October 2022.
When it comes to stocks and the stock market, do you speculate in stocks or do you invest in stocks? In this video, Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, a.k.a. Mr. Valuation is going to look at the distinctions between investing or speculating, and going to make sure that you understand the differences between speculating and investing, and how that should alter your behavior.
Tax season can be stressful, but with the right approach, advisors can turn it into an opportunity.
A crowded trade is defined as a position characterized by a high concentration of institutional investors relative to the underlying liquidity.
Donald Trump’s administration is sketching out tougher versions of US semiconductor curbs and pressuring key allies to escalate their restrictions on China’s chip industry, an early indication the new US president plans to expand efforts that began under Joe Biden to limit Beijing’s technological prowess.
Home prices continued to trend upwards in December as the benchmark national index rose for a 23rd consecutive month to a new all-time high. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.5% increase MoM, and a 4.0% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to 0.2% and YoY fell to -0.8%.
A strong conviction trade is being shaken. As international stocks are outperforming this year, global investors are asking if their faith in US exceptionalism has gone too far.
Equities were continuing to grind higher until Friday’s selloff, as the market got caught up in weaker economic data and potential tariff changes, which could shake up earnings expectations and global trade flows.
In the second half of 2024 the risk premia associated with inflation releases declined relative to labor market data as the Fed shifted focus toward labor market and away from inflation risk. With elevated S&P 500 Index concentration and the market leadership of the artificial intelligence (AI) theme, some single company earnings (NVIDIA) have been rising risk events for the entire index.
Earnings season is winding down, and the spotlight will soon shift toward 2025 trends after an impressive end to last year.
What are the hidden advantages of living away from “noisy” investing centers like New York? We’ll dive into the pros and cons of being in a financial hub versus a more laid-back flyover state like Colorado.
With our most reliable valuation measures more extreme than both the 1929 and 2000 market peaks, we continue to believe that the stock market is tracing out the extended peak of the third great speculative bubble in U.S. history.
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. pledged to invest more than 380 billion yuan ($53 billion) on AI infrastructure such as data centers over the next three years, a major commitment that underscores the e-commerce pioneer’s ambitions of becoming a leader in artificial intelligence.
Salesforce Inc. has signed a multibillion-dollar cloud deal with Alphabet Inc.’s Google, part of a larger effort to combine forces and attract corporate customers currently using Microsoft Corp.’s productivity and artificial intelligence products.
Large Cap Growth
Europe – A Bright Spot Amid Market Uncertainty
News headlines this week have been dominated by recession fears in the U.S., with the S&P 500 and the Magnificent 7 shedding value. Yet, amid this rising uncertainty, a positive story is emerging—the performance of European markets.
How to Revive America's 'Golden Middle’
The share of US workers represented by a union ended 2024 at 9.9%. Strip out public sector workers and the rate was 5.9%.
Latest Inflation Readings Put the Federal Reserve in a Bind
Markets will be laser focused on Federal Reserve policy and economic projections next week, looking for signs about where interest rates are heading.
Quality Is On Sale
News related to tariffs, DOGE, geopolitical unrest, NVIDIA earnings, and more significantly impacted U.S. stock markets recently, with the S&P 500 retreating over 2.5% during the second half of February. There are signs that meaningful structural shifts are taking place in the market.
Rebuilding Resilience in 60/40 Portfolios
The 60/40 portfolio, where 60% is invested in stocks and 40% in bonds, is the initial starting point for many portfolios. The exact asset mix is often adjusted based on an investor’s time horizon, risk tolerance, and financial goals, but the simple, proportional stock-bond combination is what is often considered a “balanced” portfolio.
Are You Ready for the Rotation?
It was inevitable. Certain pieces of the market roared to insane valuations last year. Investors poured money into the markets and speculated stocks would keep rising forever. But, sentiment has shifted.
Honeywell’s Planned Spinoff and What It Means Amid Macro Volatility
March came in like a lion, much to the bears’ delight. The S&P 500® plunged from its February 19 high on the heels of stern tariff talk and phrases like “a little bit of an adjustment period” from President Trump and the economy entering a “detox period,” as Treasury Secretary Bessent said last week.
US Stocks Rebound After Volatile Session on Softer CPI Data
US stocks gained after a volatile session as dip buyers emerged after a cooler-than-forecast February inflation report.
‘Buy The Dip’ Calls Fade as Trump Selloffs Rattle Wall Street
In a few short weeks, President Donald Trump has started silencing the buy-the-dip stock traders who set the tone on Wall Street for the better part of two decades.
Lip-Bu Tan’s ‘New Intel’ Is the Last Throw of the Dice
After a search for a new chief executive officer that lasted more than three months, Intel Corp. has decided Lip-Bu Tan is the best choice to salvage the company’s future. He’ll take up the most difficult job in the chip business, Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday evening.
Why Is the IPO Market Struggling? Here’s What Active Managers Have to Say
Three months into 2025, the U.S. IPO (initial public offering) market remains in a rut. Why? And, perhaps just as importantly, is a rebound still possible?
Data Determination vs. Headline ‘Hell’: Making Sense of the US Market’s Crosscurrents
Recent US stock weakness may be related to a downturn in US economic data and headline shocks related to tariffs.
Navigating Market Turbulence: Decoding the Impact of Tariffs and Economic Trends
As we wade into March, market volatility is at the forefront, leaving investors grappling with uncertainty surrounding tariffs and mixed economic signals. Though the S&P 500 experienced a bounce towards February's end, it slipped 1% overall, revealing lingering challenges for iconic tech stocks and the broader equity landscape.
Why the U.S. Dollar Is Losing Some of Its Luster
For decades, the U.S. dollar’s dominance has rested on two pillars: America’s deep capital markets and its global security alliances. Today, both are under strain.
From AI to Infrastructure: The 10 Investment Themes Defining the Next Five Years
Global investment themes are shifting toward infrastructure, cybersecurity and energy expansion as demand outpaces supply in key sectors.
Making International Great Again?
Economic growth, earnings performance, and rising fiscal spending coupled with "America First" policies are driving international stock markets.
The EV Shakeout
The EV shakeout is underway. When the dust settles, only a few players will remain. Many more will be relegated to the scrapyard of failed ambitions.
Still Working the Night Shift
Modern direct indexing tools, using sophisticated technology, can identify tax loss opportunities on a daily or even minute-by-minute basis. As time progresses, I believe more advisors will see the potential of direct indexing.
Asset Allocation Summit
Please join VettaFi and Nasdaq for a free one-hour, Asset Allocation Summit. Register today for this free summit and learn how to take advantage of all that asset allocation has to offer.
Unlock Alpha in Mid-Market Private Equity
As more advisors look to private equity as an effective means of diversifying their clients’ portfolios and providing a fertile source of uncorrelated alpha, the middle market merits a closer look.
US Bonds Rose as Recession Angst Fuels Haven Demand
US Treasuries surged and investors boosted their bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts Monday as fear of a economic slowdown took hold across US markets.
Apple Readies Dramatic Software Overhaul for iPhone, iPad and Mac
Apple Inc. is preparing one of the most dramatic software overhauls in the company’s history, aiming to transform the interface of the iPhone, iPad and Mac for a new generation of users.
Despite Recent Volatility, We Maintain Our Constructive Outlook
At the start of the year, our Investment Strategy Committee outlook was positive for both the economy and the equity market, supported by strong consumer, labor market, and corporate fundamentals.
M&A Still on Hold Amid Policy Uncertainty
Though mergers and acquisitions were expected to roar back in 2025 thanks to the new administration, uncertainty around Washington policy appears to be holding back new deals.
It's Not All About Tariffs
It is true that tariffs are a tax. It is also true that tariff policies have been volatile…on and off again…different carve outs…different countries…phone calls that change things. All of this clearly has an impact on the market. So, we are not surprised to see stock market volatility.
ETF of the Week: KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB)
On this episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth talks about the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) with Money Life host Chuck Jaffe. The pair covered a range of topics related to the fund, providing investors with a deeper understanding of the ETF.
It’s Good to Be Weird: Joseph Henrich’s ‘WEIRDest People in the World’ Five Years On
WEIRDness provides rewards – wealth, the pursuit of happiness, political freedom – that should cause it to succeed, over the long run, in the Darwinian competition between social systems that we call “history.” I hope it wins. WEIRD is good.
Managed Account Is a Misnomer When it Comes to QDIAs
The PPA has made a mistake in designating an MA as a QDIA. Perhaps the drafters of the PPA were thinking about accounts that are actually managed, but those participants do not default, so that flavor of MA is not a QDIA, and is typically reserved for executives of the sponsoring firm.
Strategists See More S&P 500 Volatility as Tariff Fears Kick In
A chorus of Wall Street strategists is warning about rising volatility in the stock market, with Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson the latest to sound the alarm on slumping economic growth amid President Donald Trump’s trade wars.
European Defense Stocks Go Parabolic as War Spending Surges
The U.S. has poured more than $120 billion into Ukraine since its war with Russia began three years ago, but with a new administration in Washington, that support is grinding to a halt.
Private Equity’s $24 Billion Walgreens Bid Is Wild
The deal just announced for Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. is above all a massive transaction.
How To Hedge Against AI Stealing Your Job
Will artificial intelligence take my job? This question is really starting to preoccupy me and millions of other white-collar workers. There’s even a word for it — FOBO, or fear of becoming obsolete — and, regrettably, our apprehension isn’t entirely unfounded.
Nasdaq 100 Tumbles Into a Correction as Tech Selloff Intensifies
The Nasdaq 100 Index sank into a correction on Friday, as investors continue to sour on the megacap technology stocks that led the stock market rally over the past two years.
Broadcom Shares Jump as AI Growth Fuels Upbeat Forecast
Broadcom Inc. shares jumped after the chip supplier for Apple Inc. and other big tech companies gave an upbeat forecast, reassuring investors that spending on artificial intelligence computing remains healthy.
Can We All Invest Like Yale?
Cambria Investments CIO and founder Meb Faber explores David Swensen’s legendary investment strategy at Yale’s endowment, comparing its long-term performance to traditional portfolios and examining whether individual investors can replicate its success.
Q4 Company Earnings Reveal Key Areas of U.S. Equity Exceptionalism
Q4 company earnings offered a lot to cheer at the start of the year, even as U.S. stocks contended with bouts of volatility.
3 Super Growth Stocks: 2 to Buy – 1 to Sell
In this video Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, a.k.a. Mr. Valuation will go over three super growth stocks that Chuck is often asked to cover but reluctant to because of valuation issues.
Trump’s Economic Landscape: What Investors Need to Know
One month into President Donald Trump’s new term, financial markets are adjusting to a rapidly shifting economic and policy environment. Investors are watching closely as tariffs, interest rate expectations and regulatory changes take center stage.
March’s Interim Data Highlights: Economic Clues from Costco, Taiwan Semi, and Brokers
Volatility is back in town. Tariff jitters and concerns about growth and inflation have resulted in an S&P 500® dip and the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) jumping above 20. Investors grapple with a very sanguine backdrop painted by the fourth-quarter earnings season and policy uncertainty.
Strength of US Economy Continues to Offer Stability
As daily headlines drive volatility, the market has avoided overreacting thus far.
Q4 Earnings Recap: US Large-Cap Earnings Justify Their Current Valuation
We view quarterly earnings season as a critical checkup on how markets are handling current challenges.
The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since 2000 Highs as of February 2025
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the February 2025 close.
Trump to Decide on Canada, Mexico Relief Today, Lutnick Says
President Donald Trump is set to announce changes to the tariffs on Canada and Mexico he slapped on earlier this week, with potential relief for automobiles and other sectors, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Wednesday.
Anarchy in the USA
Unlike most of the rest of the world, I will attempt to minimize all there is to say about the beginning of the next 4 years, as the persistent yack and what to make of it reverberates in all corners of the financial globe.
Beta Paradox: Why REITs and EM Stocks May Beat/Outshine U.S. Large Caps
According to Research Affiliates’ Asset Allocation Interactive (AAI) online capital market expectations tool, U.S. large-cap equities are expected to yield 3.4% annually over the next 10 years compared to 9.1% for EM equities and 7% for REITs. This left many webinar participants wondering, How does this extra return square with these assets having similar betas?
What is a Small Cap Growth Fund?
In this primer we define small cap growth funds, provide practical suggestions on how to invest in them, and explain why we believe they are a strategically important asset class.
Tariff Uncertainty Weighs on Markets as Growth Slows
While investors were fixated on inflation data Friday, the most significant surprise came from the advanced trade balance, which posted an unprecedented $37 billion deterioration
Wall Street Goes Defensive as Policy Uncertainty Rattles Markets
February’s market turbulence saw investors pivot toward defensive strategies as policy uncertainty intensified, driving a broad market rotation from mega-cap tech stocks to bonds, gold, and international equities.
The (Not So) Magnificent Seven?
Heightened economic uncertainty—propelled mainly by trade policy—has unearthed weakness in the equity market, with most pain felt under the market's surface.
Microsoft’s Fading AI Mojo Keeps Shares in Lengthy Purgatory
Many major stocks connected to artificial intelligence have lost their luster of late, but perhaps none more so than Microsoft Corp.
Trump Trades Are Upended as Treasury Returns Beat US Stocks
US Treasuries are now outperforming stocks since Donald Trump was elected President, and some strategists say there’s room for those gains to run.
DeepSeek’s ‘Theoretical’ Profit Margins Are Just That
The Chinese artificial intelligence startup that rocked global markets earlier this year with its low-cost and high-performance AI models has outlined a potential path to major profitability.
QuantStreet March 2025 Letter: Geopolitics
We wrote in last month's letter that the U.S. stock market had to meet lofty earnings expectations to maintain its strong performance relative to global benchmarks, while the latter had a lower bar because of considerably cheaper valuation multiples and higher dividend yields.
How Much Insurance Is Right for You?
The central question we want to address in this note is how to quantify how “price sensitive” insurance buyers should be, and in the context of insurance, what is the “price” they should be sensitive to?
Three History Lessons Frame Market Expectations
The future is impossible to predict, but looking at the patterns around price/earnings ratios can provide some insight about what one might expect.
Where the Stock Market Goes, the US Economy Will Follow
There’s an old Wall Street saying that “the stock market is not the economy.” That’s usually true. But, in this economic cycle, stock market gains have become an increasingly important driver of consumer spending, helping to fuel growth as other areas of the economy cool.
The Bull’s Eye Matrix: Updated
Today we are going to revisit that matrix updated through 2024. We will see what we got right and wrong, what further inferences we can now make and why I think it confirms my general shift in market strategy over the past few years.
Buffett’s 2024 Vision: What Investors Can Learn from Six Decades of Letters
For more than half a century, Warren Buffett has penned annual letters that chronicled economic and market shifts while underscoring Berkshire Hathaway's steady philosophy yet ever-evolving outlooks. With Buffett's 2024 letter freshly published, we take this opportunity to contrast his latest views with the remarkable continuity of his investment philosophy.
Boom in Loss-Limiting Funds With $51 Billion Sparks Backlash
They’re a tempting proposition for anyone getting worried about the bull market’s longevity: exchange-traded funds that keep you from losing money — should stocks suddenly go south.
Big Tech Pain Is Mounting as Risk-Wary Traders Dump Winners
For some time now, there have been plenty of reasons to worry about Big Tech stocks. Stretched valuations after a big run up, heavy spending on artificial intelligence and lofty expectations for future growth. For months, though, none of it seemed to matter.
President McKinley’s Tariff Mishap Could Be a Warning Sign for Trump’s Trade War
More than a century ago, then-Representative William McKinley pursued an aggressive tariff strategy that sought to protect American industry and reduce reliance on foreign imports. The McKinley Tariff Act of 1890 raised import duties to an average of 50%, one of the highest levels in U.S. history.
Multi-Asset Positioning in a Trump 2.0 Policy Regime
With major US policy change unfolding, flexibility across and within asset classes will be critical.
Mid-Caps: A "Sweet Spot" Opportunity
U.S. equity investors face an interesting allocation question in 2025: Why buy anything other than the S&P 500?
Tencent Fires Up AI Race With Model It Says Outdoes DeepSeek
Tencent Holdings Ltd. became the latest tech company to unveil or enhance an AI model intended to eclipse DeepSeek, joining a spate of rollouts since the startup’s emergence energized the US-China technology race.
AI Drug Firm Recursion Wants to Be the Amazon Prime of Pharma
AI drug developer Recursion Pharmaceuticals Inc. is considering an Amazon Prime-style subscription model for selling its pipeline of medicines.
Moving Averages of the Ivy Portfolio and S&P 500: February 2025
Valid until the market close on March 31, 2025
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
International Quality
The perfect pairing for your U.S. large-cap portfolio?
Earnings Season Wraps Up: US CEOs Signal Highest Confidence in Two Years
The fourth quarter 2024 earnings season more-or-less wraps up this week with the final trickle of retailers coming in, as well as the highly anticipated report from Nvidia which was out yesterday afternoon.
Hey, Alexa, Do You Finally Have a Real Business Model?
The last time we heard from Amazon.com Inc. Chief Executive Officer Andy Jassy, he was breaking it to investors that his company was forecasting $100 billion in capital expenditures this year — the largest outlay of the tech giants in the pursuit of artificial intelligence.
Small-Cap Stocks’ Gloom Deepens as Executive Sentiment Sours Too
Investor sentiment around small-cap companies is worse than it’s been in months. As it turns out, the mood isn’t much better inside their corporate boardrooms.
Nvidia and Salesforce Leave Bulls Wanting as AI Trade Stalls
Investors hoping that Nvidia Corp.’s earnings would rejuvenate the artificial intelligence trade didn’t exactly get the report they wanted.
Nvidia Sees Mixed Outlook After Two Years of Blowout Results
Nvidia Corp., the chipmaker at the center of an AI spending boom, delivered good-but-not-great quarterly numbers on Wednesday, drawing a muted response from investors accustomed to blowout results.
Big Money Flocks Back to a Levered Trade That Went Bust in 2008
A diversified investment strategy that seeks to juice returns through leverage is finding new love among big money managers — more than a decade after it blew up during the 2008 financial crisis.
Nvidia Up Next with New Chips, DeepSeek in Focus
Nvidia, the biggest AI chip firm, reports Wednesday with investors watching sales of Nvidia's newest chips and worried about cheaper competition from systems like DeepSeek.
American 'Economic Exceptionalism' Isn't Dead: How the US Is 'Built Different'
The U.S. economy remains structurally productive. American Economic Exceptionalism is powered by innovation and labor flexibility.
Nvidia’s Shaken Aura of Invincibility Is Set for Earnings Test
Nvidia Corp.’s earnings are set to dictate whether artificial intelligence can regain its status as the key driver behind Wall Street gains — or trigger more weakness after the Magnificent Seven group of technology stocks fell into correction territory.
The New Magnificent Seven?
We explore drivers that may contribute to continued outperformance of European stocks since the bull market began in October 2022.
Investing or Speculating? How to Tell Them Apart
When it comes to stocks and the stock market, do you speculate in stocks or do you invest in stocks? In this video, Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, a.k.a. Mr. Valuation is going to look at the distinctions between investing or speculating, and going to make sure that you understand the differences between speculating and investing, and how that should alter your behavior.
How Advisors Can Turn Tax Season Into a Strategic Advantage by Reviewing Their Clients’ 1099 Forms
Tax season can be stressful, but with the right approach, advisors can turn it into an opportunity.
Lost in the Crowd
A crowded trade is defined as a position characterized by a high concentration of institutional investors relative to the underlying liquidity.
Trump Team Seeks to Toughen Biden’s Chip Controls Over China
Donald Trump’s administration is sketching out tougher versions of US semiconductor curbs and pressuring key allies to escalate their restrictions on China’s chip industry, an early indication the new US president plans to expand efforts that began under Joe Biden to limit Beijing’s technological prowess.
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index: 19th Straight Record High in December
Home prices continued to trend upwards in December as the benchmark national index rose for a 23rd consecutive month to a new all-time high. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.5% increase MoM, and a 4.0% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to 0.2% and YoY fell to -0.8%.
A Chinese Alternative to the Magnificent Seven Has Arrived
A strong conviction trade is being shaken. As international stocks are outperforming this year, global investors are asking if their faith in US exceptionalism has gone too far.
Tariff Uncertainty Looms
Equities were continuing to grind higher until Friday’s selloff, as the market got caught up in weaker economic data and potential tariff changes, which could shake up earnings expectations and global trade flows.
What Scares the S&P 500?
In the second half of 2024 the risk premia associated with inflation releases declined relative to labor market data as the Fed shifted focus toward labor market and away from inflation risk. With elevated S&P 500 Index concentration and the market leadership of the artificial intelligence (AI) theme, some single company earnings (NVIDIA) have been rising risk events for the entire index.
Shareholder Meeting Season Gets Going: Tariffs, AI, and Farmland in Focus
Earnings season is winding down, and the spotlight will soon shift toward 2025 trends after an impressive end to last year.
The Hidden Advantages of Investing from NOT New York City
What are the hidden advantages of living away from “noisy” investing centers like New York? We’ll dive into the pros and cons of being in a financial hub versus a more laid-back flyover state like Colorado.
The Government Deficits Land in the Deepest Pockets
With our most reliable valuation measures more extreme than both the 1929 and 2000 market peaks, we continue to believe that the stock market is tracing out the extended peak of the third great speculative bubble in U.S. history.
Alibaba Plans to Spend $53 Billion on AI in a Major Pivot
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. pledged to invest more than 380 billion yuan ($53 billion) on AI infrastructure such as data centers over the next three years, a major commitment that underscores the e-commerce pioneer’s ambitions of becoming a leader in artificial intelligence.
Google Wins Salesforce Cloud Deal in Bid to Counter Microsoft
Salesforce Inc. has signed a multibillion-dollar cloud deal with Alphabet Inc.’s Google, part of a larger effort to combine forces and attract corporate customers currently using Microsoft Corp.’s productivity and artificial intelligence products.