Tax Planning

The Federal Reserve is creating the potential for extreme bouts of volatility surrounded economic data releases.

Investors should be careful what they wish for in hoping for an aggressive Fed rate cutting cycle, given stocks tend to do better when cuts are slow and steady.

A bright spot in Chinese investment could spell trouble for its financial institutions.

After a decade of consistent outperformance, Japanese small caps began underperforming their large cap peers in 2018, a trend that has accelerated since 2023.

In this edition, Harold Evensky explores the challenges facing sustainable and active funds, the implications of the new DOL Fiduciary Rule, and the value of long-term performance projections. With candid observations and critical analysis--read on to gain perspective on navigating the complex world of investing, the importance of risk management, and the role of fiduciary advisors in securing your financial future.

The case for infrastructure investment is rising, but so are its costs.

With his Jackson Hole speech, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell all but promised rate cuts were coming. That’s cool. But it is why that matters.

A soft landing for the U.S. economy still appears to be the most likely outcome.

On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Director and Senior Investment Strategist Alex Cousley and ESG and Active Ownership Analyst Zoe Warganz discussed key takeaways from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

In our view, stagflation scenarios tend to be worse for balanced portfolios than recessions.

I asked my great friend and business partner David Bahnsen, who is about as politically wired as anyone and one of the truly great economic and investment minds, to reflect on the intersection of politics and markets. It is a quick, balanced, and reasonable read...

As I write this, gold continues to trade above $2,500 an ounce after surging past the psychologically important level for the first time ever in mid-August. For seasoned gold mining investors, this should be a moment of validation. After all, the yellow metal has long been seen as the ultimate hedge against economic uncertainty.

The forthcoming presidential election is certainly adding a healthy dose of intrigue into the municipal bond space.

Establishing the optimal workplace retirement plan follows a pecking order, which starts by prioritizing plan design over investments. Our Mike Dullaghan discusses the process.

As tax season draws nearer, advisors and investors increasingly look to their portfolio to optimize exposures for taxation purposes.

When you see that behavior at extreme valuations, it tends to be a sign of underlying skittishness and risk aversion. When valuations are setting record extremes because the news can’t get any better, even a slightly less optimistic outlook becomes a risk.

College students may want to secure legal documents to ensure their parents can access important information and help them in medical emergencies. Our Bill Cass highlights the key documents students can prepare before leaving for college.

The path for lower rates in the U.S. has finally arrived.

While short-term fluctuations and sudden selloffs have tested the markets, key indicators such as corporate profits, employment data, and economic resilience have held firm.

Is the Japanese yen carry trade back on? Tough question. We think it is, now that the Bank of Japan has toned down its hawkish rhetoric. More on that later. Still, even if we are wrong, the reality is that the market will be talking about the violent ructions of August 2024 for the rest of our careers.

HSAs are increasingly coming into use. They are a more tax-efficient means of investing, withdrawing money to cover large healthcare expenses, or simply preparing for higher medical costs in one’s later years.

An extended period of elevated interest rates may have long-term implications for both consumers and businesses—affecting how investors value company shares.

We analyze Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell’s comments about the potential for rate cuts in September and beyond.

Will 2030 DC plans perform better at preparing U.S. workers for retirement?

The healthcare sector offers a compelling mix of defensive characteristics and growth potential driven by innovation. It also features ample dispersion that presents stock pickers with an opportunity to parse potential leaders and laggards in pursuit of above-market return.

High-yield bonds have been one of the best-performing bond investments so far this year, but there may be better entry points down the road.

The most glaring uncertainties today, which contributed to early August seeing some of the largest market moves in the last several years, are the risks associated with the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate.

With US payroll and unemployment data surprising to the downside two Fridays ago, Treasury markets quickly repriced the probability of impending recession, helping set off a volatility spike in stocks across the world. According to Bloomberg, economists’ consensus probability of a US recession in the next twelve months is now approximately 30%.

A Soft Landing Scenario Is Still a Realistic Base Case.

Elevated budget deficits imply growing US Treasury issuance. Receding demand from central banks could leave more price-sensitive buyers to pick up the slack. Who are the buyers of US government debt, and how is the market responding? In part two of our series, let’s examine Treasury market supply and demand.

The 19th Century American author Mark Twain once said: “Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one’s lifetime.”

Happy National Cheap Flight Day! Yes, you heard that right—there is a national celebration day to mark the start of a lull in travel demand. Who knew this would be a day to celebrate? Regardless, it’s good news for consumers as airfares should continue their recent downward trend!

We all knew it was coming…and in Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said it will come next month. He said, “the time has come,” and the futures markets have priced in either a 25 or 50 basis point rate cut at the meeting on September 18.

That anthem was characteristic of the era. After two decades of economic frustration, free market policies had prompted a surge of growth and a bull market for stocks. The captains of industry were corporate raiders, who purchased companies, slashed expenses, pushed up prices and reaped outsized rewards.

As a businessman and ex-business owner, the idea of firms ‘hoarding’ workers never made sense. As an economist, the idea of firms hoarding workers never made sense either.

This week, before she accepted the Democratic Party’s nomination for president, Vice President Kamala Harris threw her support behind President Joe Biden’s tax proposals for 2025, which include a steep 44.6% capital gains rate and an unprecedented 25% tax on unrealized gains.

Over nearly three decades, I’ve been dedicated to the sport of running. For the last five years, I chased the elusive goal of qualifying for the Boston Marathon, my ultimate aspiration. It wasn’t until I sought the expertise of a professional coach that I finally achieved this dream.

Deep value stocks are currently our highest conviction long-only investment idea. For the avoidance of any doubt, when we talk about “deep value,” we simply mean stocks that are cheap, often screamingly so, relative to our appraisal of their fair value. We do not care about a “growth” or “value” label that has been assigned, sometimes seemingly arbitrarily, by one index provider or another.

Although we think it's too early to declare the economy is in a recession, risk is elevated. For investors who are concerned about a recession, municipal bonds may help buffer a portfolio.

Recent economic data points have been mixed. On the more positive side of the ledger, there’s evidence that inflation is cooling and consumer spending remains sturdy. Conversely, the jobs market is cooling.

Are we going to have a recession? Are we already in a recession?

With recent cooling in economic growth, an uptick in unemployment, inflation moderating back to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% target, and expectations for rate cuts, we believe the winds are shifting in the U.S. fixed income market.

Since our last update of the Three Tactical Rules on June 25, 2024, equity markets have retraced most of the rally from the spring. The change in market sentiment came abruptly, due to the labor market showing signs of weakness as the number of jobs available per unemployed worker fell to 1.2 and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The recent market volatility has had a dramatic impact on our tactical rules.

Amid expectations of rate cuts from major central banks, managers are increasing their exposure to more cyclical and value-oriented names, including autos, transportation, and short-cycle industrials.

The last two years of high school can be particularly important as students approach the final college decision. Our Bill Cass highlights some action items for students and parents.

Since the end of the financial crisis, economists, analysts, and the Federal Reserve have continued to predict a return to higher levels of economic growth. The hope remains that the Trillions of dollars spent during the pandemic-driven economic shutdown will turn into lasting organic economic growth.

Active management can lead to high portfolio turnover and a higher tax bill. Wealth managers might feel that an active strategy could be too inefficient for clients who are sensitive to taxes. Find out how implementing a core-satellite portfolio with a direct indexing core may improve tax efficiency.

We explore how strong fundamentals and a resilient economy may position high-yield bonds as a potentially compelling choice in today’s fluctuating market.

Since the release of ChatGPT, mega-cap technology companies poised to profit from AI-enhanced software tools or cloud AI-model training capabilities have seen a surge in their stock prices. Yet, many have yet to realize significant AI-driven revenue growth, let alone a substantial impact on their bottom lines.