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Commentaries
Timely market commentaries from leading investment firms
Investment Considerations for the Second Trump Presidency
With all eyes focused on the White House, investors must decide what the incoming President’s policies will mean for markets and how to position accordingly. Ahead of the inauguration, we asked our portfolio managers what they think should be front of mind.
A Deep Dive on the Recent Spike in U.S. Treasury Yields
U.S. Treasury yields have increased notably since September, particularly at the long end of the curve, with the 10-year yield up over 100 basis points from its recent lows. We unpack the drivers behind this big move in rates and our outlook for bonds going forward.
A US ETF Split Surge in Q4 2024: Digging Into the Data and What It Means for Investors
Something unusual came down the chimney late last year. During the holidays and the preceding weeks, there were a slew of splits among US ETFs – the most in the past four years, according to Wall Street Horizon’s data.
Balancing Caution and Optimism: Navigating 2025’s Market Dynamics
As we step into 2025, it’s time to revisit our expectations for the markets and provide an updated perspective for investors.
Assessing the Potential Impact of California’s Wildfires on Municipal Bonds
Natural disasters test—but don’t break—municipalities’ resilience.
Will Higher Rates Doom Stocks? Not Necessarily
While stocks can move higher, the bond market will continue to matter. Higher rates suggest that equity leadership may continue to reside in companies that are relatively rate insensitive.
Social Security Changes Mean Higher Benefits for Certain Public Workers
The Social Security Fairness Act is expected to enhance benefits for many starting in 2024. Our Bill Cass explains the significance of the new law.
US Economic Outlook: Pre-Season Prospects
The Northern Trust Economics team shares an outlook for U.S. growth, inflation, employment and interest rates.
Is Your Fixed Income Manager Delivering Tax Alpha?
Reflecting ongoing uncertainty around inflation and the trajectory of monetary policy, yield volatility posed challenges in 2024. Yet it also highlighted the importance of tax-efficient strategies like loss harvesting in fixed income portfolios.
2024 and 2025 Investment Insights: The Magnificent 7 Stocks, Sector Growth, and Emerging Themes
Despite challenges, the U.S. market saw strong returns in 2024 with a "soft landing" for the economy, leading to key questions and emerging themes for investors in 2025.
Bull vs. Bear: Using Sector ETFs to Make Bets on the New Regime
For this edition of Bull vs. Bear, the VettaFi writers debate the case for using sector ETFs to make bets on the new market regime.
Uncertainty Is Certain
Amid an unsettled global economic outlook and elevated equity valuations, bond markets present attractive yields and important diversification benefits.
Bonds – The Dual Benefit
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
New Congress Faces Massive Policy Agenda
Donald Trump and Republicans support sweeping changes that could affect the economy, markets and investors. But narrow margins in Congress could complicate that agenda.
Shock-Proofing the UK Economy
No country wants external developments to drive up its borrowing costs and weaken its currency, which is what the UK is facing today, together with serious cyclical and structural challenges. But if the British government responds appropriately, recent market volatility might turn out to have a silver lining.
Transforming 2024 Insights Into 2025 Action
Use this guide to transform our 2024 Retirement Insights into action in 2025, focusing on areas of plan design, tax credits and participant engagement. Our Mike Dullaghan shares the highlights.
Strategic Income Outlook: Magic 8-Ball Says, “Cannot Predict Now”
Although we are loath to make predictions, conditions appear to be favorable for fixed income in the coming year, and we think investors should consider adjusting their allocations accordingly.
Why More Asset Managers Are Outsourcing or Co-sourcing Trading
Outsourced trading is a growing trend among asset managers, with recent headlines illustrating how firms are reassessing their approach to how trading fits in their broader strategic plans.
Tariff Threats Boost Silver & Copper Prices
The threat of tariffs is ramping up ahead of the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump. This is pushing up silver and copper prices.
High Rates, Tight Supply: Housing’s 2025 Balancing Act
The US housing market faces a delicate balancing act in 2025, influenced by effects of the pandemic and persistently high mortgage rates.
What's Ahead for China in 2025?
Economic data and policies out of China are typically delayed until mid-March. Stock volatility may be prevalent until initiatives are clarified after the Lunar New Year.
Slimming Down a Top-Heavy Market
The strong performance of large-cap stocks over the past decade has left the market exceptionally top-heavy. By some measures, stock market capitalization has never been more concentrated among a handful of large stocks as today.
Early Groundwork Is Key for Implementing Lifetime Income Solutions
Engaging up front with four key workstreams may smooth the process of adding a solution.
Tax Planning in 2025: Five Key Topics to Discuss With Your Clients Now
The calendar page has turned, and that means we have the opportunity to get 2025 off to a good start.
Investor Resolutions For 2025
I publish an updated version of my New Year “investor” resolutions yearly. The purpose of the process is to take an annual inventory of what I did and did not do over the last year to improve my portfolio management practices.
Bond Yields Surge’s Potential Impacts on the Equity Market
US equities had a stellar 2024, with the S&P 500 up 25%, but the year ended on a softer note. The sharp rise in bond yields has caught the market's eye
How Parametric Strives to Stay Ahead in Direct Indexing
Direct indexing has been around for more than 30 years, yet many people still don’t know what it is or how it continues to grow and evolve.
2025 Outlook: Run It Back
The global economic landscape continues to evolve, and 2025 promises to be a year of adaptation and resilience.
Europe Moves Further Away From Russian Gas
Most of us like to ring in the new year with fresh energy. The Europeans appear to have made good on this resolution.
Expect Innovation Led American Exceptionalism to Continue
Nothing is more fundamental to the current health of the economy than jobs creation and income growth.
Amid Rate Uncertainty, Shorten Duration With This Active ETF
Uncertainty with regard to interest rate policy warrants an active management strategy inherent in the Vanguard Short Duration Bond ETF.
Asset Allocation Interactive at 10 Years: The Good, the Not Too Bad, and the Ugly
Ten years ago, Research Affiliates launched the Asset Allocation Interactive online tool, making our CMEs freely available to the public. With one full cycle complete, we can see what has worked well and where we can improve.
The Case for Active Fixed Income in 2025
Active fixed income could stand out in 2025, with active offering a way to refresh bond portfolios and allocations.
Economic Resilience Meets “Higher for Longer” Rates
As we kick off 2025, the economic landscape showcased a strong economy and resilient job market even as higher interest rates weigh on market sentiment. This week’s data underscore the delicate interplay between inflation expectations, real growth, and the Federal Reserve’s policy stance.
Private Credit Outlook: Expanding the Universe
The journey from niche asset to core allocation looks set to continue.
PMI Report Highlights: Inflation Pressures Persist Amid Services Sector Growth
The December PMI report, released on January 5, 2025, indicates that the U.S. services sector continued to grow, albeit at a measured pace, suggesting resilience in certain areas of the economy.
Health Check: How Is the Global Economy Holding Up?
On the inaugural edition of Market Week in Review for 2025, Senior Director and Chief Investment Strategist for North America, Paul Eitelman, discussed Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation as well as the latest batch of U.S. and global economic data.
What We're Worrying About
We identify four categories of risks to the growth outlook.
2025 Political Outlook
Managing Director, Washington Policy Analyst Ed Mills looks at how several of the top market-relevant Washington DC issues could play out in 2025.
Market Predictions & ETF Ideas for a New Year
Every new year brings with it a new opportunity to stop for a moment, revisit resolutions, and refresh outlooks.
Chasing Alpha: Top Active Equity Strategies for 2025
Markets are coming off back-to-back gains of more than 20% each on an annual basis. The chances of a hat trick in 2025 are slim to none.
Washington's Time Line
When and how will new policies take shape?
Triggers to Change Our Pro-Risk View
We are pro-risk, with the biggest overweight in U.S. stocks, yet eye three areas that could spur a view change.
Labor Market Strong, But Normalization Continues
The US labor market has remained relatively strong, but the trend over the last year or so has been one of normalization back to the pre-pandemic levels.
The Housing Outlook: 2025
If you’re going to remember one important fact about the housing market, it’s that with the brief exception of COVID, the US has consistently built too few homes almost every year since the housing bust got rough in 2007.