Commentaries

Timely market commentaries from leading investment firms

Investment Considerations for the Second Trump Presidency

With all eyes focused on the White House, investors must decide what the incoming President’s policies will mean for markets and how to position accordingly. Ahead of the inauguration, we asked our portfolio managers what they think should be front of mind.

A Deep Dive on the Recent Spike in U.S. Treasury Yields

U.S. Treasury yields have increased notably since September, particularly at the long end of the curve, with the 10-year yield up over 100 basis points from its recent lows. We unpack the drivers behind this big move in rates and our outlook for bonds going forward.

A US ETF Split Surge in Q4 2024: Digging Into the Data and What It Means for Investors

Something unusual came down the chimney late last year. During the holidays and the preceding weeks, there were a slew of splits among US ETFs – the most in the past four years, according to Wall Street Horizon’s data.

Balancing Caution and Optimism: Navigating 2025’s Market Dynamics

As we step into 2025, it’s time to revisit our expectations for the markets and provide an updated perspective for investors.

Assessing the Potential Impact of California’s Wildfires on Municipal Bonds

Natural disasters test—but don’t break—municipalities’ resilience.

Will Higher Rates Doom Stocks? Not Necessarily

While stocks can move higher, the bond market will continue to matter. Higher rates suggest that equity leadership may continue to reside in companies that are relatively rate insensitive.

Social Security Changes Mean Higher Benefits for Certain Public Workers

The Social Security Fairness Act is expected to enhance benefits for many starting in 2024. Our Bill Cass explains the significance of the new law.

US Economic Outlook: Pre-Season Prospects

The Northern Trust Economics team shares an outlook for U.S. growth, inflation, employment and interest rates.

Is Your Fixed Income Manager Delivering Tax Alpha?

Reflecting ongoing uncertainty around inflation and the trajectory of monetary policy, yield volatility posed challenges in 2024. Yet it also highlighted the importance of tax-efficient strategies like loss harvesting in fixed income portfolios.

2024 and 2025 Investment Insights: The Magnificent 7 Stocks, Sector Growth, and Emerging Themes

Despite challenges, the U.S. market saw strong returns in 2024 with a "soft landing" for the economy, leading to key questions and emerging themes for investors in 2025.

Bull vs. Bear: Using Sector ETFs to Make Bets on the New Regime

For this edition of Bull vs. Bear, the VettaFi writers debate the case for using sector ETFs to make bets on the new market regime.

Uncertainty Is Certain

Amid an unsettled global economic outlook and elevated equity valuations, bond markets present attractive yields and important diversification benefits.

Bonds – The Dual Benefit

Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.

New Congress Faces Massive Policy Agenda

Donald Trump and Republicans support sweeping changes that could affect the economy, markets and investors. But narrow margins in Congress could complicate that agenda.

Shock-Proofing the UK Economy

No country wants external developments to drive up its borrowing costs and weaken its currency, which is what the UK is facing today, together with serious cyclical and structural challenges. But if the British government responds appropriately, recent market volatility might turn out to have a silver lining.