The yield on the 10-year note ended June 20, 2025 at 4.38%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.90% and the 30-year note ended at 4.89%.
Given that the bill’s failure to reduce the deficit is due in part to its extension and expansion of the special tax treatment for non-corporate businesses that Johnson insisted on in 2017, which will cost an estimated $820 billion over the next decade, the senator does not make for the most credible of deficit hawks.
US banks seem likely to get the changes they want to an obscure but important rule known as the supplementary leverage ratio.
This is the first in a three-part series outlining why I believe bonds are set to outperform. Here, I focus on the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate, the June 2025 meeting, and why the Fed’s approach is positive for bond investors. Parts 2 and 3 will address valuation, politics, recession risk, and the secular horizon.
How big data, AI and the human element can combine to better pursue consistent alpha.
CEO Ali Dibadj provides an update on the three macro drivers we believe will shape markets in the second half of 2025 and how Janus Henderson is helping clients position for a brighter investment future.
New strategies, shifting flows, and innovative technologies are driving a more dynamic and diversified marketplace in fixed income ETFs.
The overall U.S. equity market has fully recovered from its April lows, landing in an essentially flat position as of 5/31/2025. However, it’s been a wild ride for many investors.
Drew O’Neil discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
It's important to consider non-hardship 401(k) withdrawals carefully. Our Bill Cass explains why individuals should check plan eligibility and consider asset protection and tax implications.
Despite consumer fears of 1970s-style inflation, actual CPI has cooled to just 2.4%. Jeff Weniger makes the case that we may be living in a Goldilocks scenario, where price trends align with a stable and balanced economic environment.
The U.S. economy is growing accustomed to elevated uncertainty.
The Federal Reserve concluded its fourth meeting of the year by keeping the federal funds rate (FFR) at 4.25-4.50%, as expected.
Blackstone Inc. sees a $200 billion investment opportunity in European credit over the next 10 years, underscoring the region’s appeal to investors looking for alternatives to the US.
Not much seems to faze the stock market these days even as risks abound, from war in the Middle East, to trade tensions, to slowing growth. But Wall Street’s biggest fear arrives today when the Federal Reserve meeting ends and Chair Jerome Powell explains the central bank’s outlook.
US stocks gained on Wednesday with investors looking ahead to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision.
Many small deals have done through, including ones from overseas, and an active calendar of corporate shareholder meetings could offer fresh insights into capital plans.
In the week ending June 14th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 245,000. This represents a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was lower than the 246,000 forecast.
We remain bullish about many of the corporate changes taking place in Japan. Toyota Group recently announced it was taking Toyota Industries private (its auto parts and forklift business) to simplify the group’s structure.
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses the recent performance of gold and its ongoing role as a store of value in investors’ portfolios.
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, co-founder of FAST Graphs, aka Mr. Valuation analyzes Eversource Energy (ES), for Income and Total Return, a New England-based utility known for its consistent earnings and dividend growth.
What happens in global supply chains can provide insight into how tariffs and the trade war may affect economies around the world.
The first half of the year has left investors with many questions about the path ahead for the economy and markets. Unfortunately, there haven’t been many concrete answers. Tariff announcements and trade negotiations have commanded the room.
The Iran-Israel conflict and equity markets are now in sharp focus. As direct strikes escalated in June 2025, global financial markets responded immediately. Israel’s airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and energy infrastructure triggered retaliatory missile and drone attacks from Iran.
Smart beta strategies have endured a prolonged stretch of disappointing results, falling short of investor expectations. This article explores the underlying causes of that performance and outlines why the conditions ahead could be more favorable.
The United States consumes a large share of its GDP; China, not so much. The result is Yin and Yang. On net, China produces and the US consumes.
The draft of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) runs more than 1,000 pages. Analysis of the legislation has focused primarily on its impact on the U.S. federal deficit: the Congressional Budget Office estimates that passage would add almost $3 trillion to the national debt over the coming decade.
Treasury yields declined Tuesday as US economic data left intact expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least once more in 2025.
A record share of the world’s central banks plans to accumulate more gold over the next 12 months, drawn by bullion’s performance during times of crisis and protection against inflation.
Describes how what is happening to the economy is bigger than tariffs, it is the business cycle. It includes a comment on the FOMC meeting tomorrow, uses economic data up through this morning (retail sales), and includes a nice cartoon which can be used as a thumbnail (below).
Let’s talk about life expectancy. More specifically – should it play a role in retirement planning?You might be surprised to learn that the answer is: Absolutely not.
The ETF market has hit a symbolic turning point: active funds now outnumber passive ones for the first time, marking a sharp break from the industry’s index-tracking origins — even if actively managed assets still account for just a tenth of assets.
Builder confidence fell for a second straight month in June as elevated rates, tariffs, and economic uncertainty dragged builder sentiment to its lowest level in 2.5 years.
Ever since their near collapse during the 2008 financial crisis, the mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have performed impressively under the conservatorship of the US government.
The fund shines through as a prime option worthy of consideration among the vast alternatives present in the muni market. With their rare combination of credit quality and yield, munis are offering fixed income investors prime benefits in a still-uncertain bond environment.
Bonds hit a headwind in May as rates rose, but year to date, they have helped offset some of the volatility seen in stocks. See Table 2 for bond index returns for May 2025, Q1 2025, and YTD.
The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of June 6th, the index was at 8.404, down 1.218 from the previous week, with 3 of the 6 components in expansion territory.
In this video, 5 Stocks That Subscribers Asked To See, Chuck Carnevale, co-founder of FAST Graphs, aka Mr. Valuation addresses subscriber requests by providing a high-level review of five companies, AES Corp (AES), Amgen (AMGN), Air Products (APD), ASML Holding (ASML) and Broadcom (AVGO).
Michael Browne, Chief Investment Officer at Martin Currie discusses inflation, energy and the art of the possible.
President Donald Trump’s announcement on Wednesday of a new trade agreement with China is the kind of headline that gives markets a sense of relief. As I overheard this week at Wealth Management’s EDGE conference, which I attended in Boca Raton, Florida, we may have dodged a recession.
This week’s market resilience in the face of rising geopolitical tensions underscores an important structural shift. The Israeli strikes and broader Middle East dynamics, while concerning, sparked only a modest reaction—a far cry from the volatility such events triggered in past decades.
How do we give clients what they’re truly looking for — income certainty, simplicity, peace of mind —without triggering resistance that shuts the conversation down?
The ever-louder brouhaha surrounding BBD is much ado about nothing. It is expensive, dangerous, and likely to benefit only bankers and brokerage firms.
Investors are betting the months-long rally in emerging markets has further to run even as tariff threats and escalating geopolitical tensions signal a rocky path ahead.
Last week’s economic signals showed cautious optimism and renewed concern. Inflation saw a slight uptick in May.
Blackstone Inc. hired Joseph Cassanelli, a banker who drove major Wall Street deals, as the private equity firm prepares to invest more in banks and insurers.
Hiive Markets Ltd., an online trading platform for shares of venture-backed companies, is hoping to raise as much as $100 million as soon as this year, its chief executive officer said.
The Gold Reserve Transparency Act of 2025 (House Bill 3795), calls for a full, modern audit of America's gold holdings—something that hasn't occurred in over 65 years.
Lately, the “deficit narrative” has dominated much of the financial media, particularly those channels that are continual “purveyors of doom.” In this post, we will discuss the “deficit narrative,” the likely outcomes, and why the cure for the deficit may be found in Artificial Intelligence.
Separating the signal from the noise may be the hardest challenge investors face. We’re all surrounded by constantly changing but mostly unimportant information. Of the small part that really is important, we must decide if it affects our investments.
Tariff policy has clouded expectations for the second half of the year, but there are ways to navigate through the fog.
Fears of an impending recession may be fading, but economists are still expecting tepid GDP growth for the year.
Just one day after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba likened Japan’s debt situation to that of Greece, the country faced its weakest demand for 20-year bonds since 2012.
A 529 plan can play a strategic role in estate planning, especially for families looking to reduce taxes while saving for education. Contributions to a 529 plan may be excluded from your taxable estate, potentially lowering future estate tax liability.
In part one of our new series, AI Alpha, we explored the sweeping potential of artificial intelligence (AI) as a transformative force.
Investment banks and private equity firms are fighting over the kids again.
US economic data continue to send mixed signals, keeping uncertainty high on interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve later this year.
Alex Veroude, Global Head of Fixed Income, believes fixed income investors can prepare for an uncertain journey by recognising trends and diversifying across different assets.
Global markets may be more rattled than ever, but advisors can count on closed-end funds to offer yield, portfolio diversity, and more.
Unlike most other US public retirement plans of its size, the Tampa Fire & Police Pension Fund doesn’t invest in hedge funds, private equity or private credit.
Vanguard Group Inc., the investment giant famous for low-cost index funds, is seeking regulatory approval to expand its signature tax-saving fund structure — as anticipation grows that the Securities and Exchange Commission under Paul Atkins will soon embrace the design en masse.
For US traders, developing-country stocks have been a surprising source of returns as Donald Trump’s trade war roiled the S&P 500 Index.
The Senate is continuing to work behind the scenes to develop its version of the "One Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill that passed the House by a singe vote in May.
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, co-founder of FAST Graphs, aka Mr. Valuation presents a detailed analysis of Enterprise Products Partners (EPD), a midstream master limited partnership (MLP) known for its high income potential, offering investors a stable and growing dividend yield.
Summer re-runs are popular on TV, but a repeat of last August's "yen-carry" market upheaval isn't likely on the schedule. A shift in positioning by investors is one reason.
In the history of technological progress, there's often a critical misreading. We think the leap is in the product—the engine, the chip, the app.
The US 2025 tax bill enhances certain deductions and includes provisions for business growth and development. Our Bill Cass shares the highlights of what is being debated on Capitol Hill and the impact on business owners.
Head of EMEA and Asia Pacific Equities Lucas Klein and Head of Americas Equities Marc Pinto argue that progress on the trade impasse, further monetary easing, pro-growth reforms, and an innovation revolution should all prove supportive to equities over the mid term once the market moves past near-term volatility.
With tariff news providing constant equity market fluctuations, the case for bonds becomes more compelling. The added uncertainty also punctuates the need for an active management strategy, which one particular Vanguard ETF offers.
Financial markets have been experiencing some of their wildest trading days in history this year. Stock and bond prices have been moving in unison—an alarming scenario for investors and their advisors. With increased volatility, long-term investors might benefit from additional exposure to alternative strategies within their portfolio allocations.
If I told someone with even a little investing experience that I own an asset that pays like stocks but is stable like bonds, they would probably think I was a huckster or a fool. Yet many of the most sophisticated investors claim to own such a thing.
Despite inflation worries, fiscal deficit concerns, and continued geopolitical conflict, equity markets posted strong returns in May on the back of easing tariff tensions, lower probability of recession, and better than expected US Q1 earnings.
Wholesale inflation heated up in May but was still cooler than anticipated. The producer price index for final demand was up 0.1% month-over-month after falling 0.2% in April. This was lower than the expected 0.2% growth.
After weeks of hand-wringing around demand for long-term US debt, all eyes are on Thursday’s 30-year Treasury auction for a fresh read on whether spiraling deficits are causing investors to shun the maturity.
While crypto’s roots are libertarian and anti-state, stablecoins could serve to entrench the existing tech and monetary order dominated by the US, as 95% of them are dollar-denominated.
The first half of 2025 has been driven by headlines that have caused volatility in both the stock and bond markets. While tariff negotiations have commanded the most attention, we are now pivoting to the federal budget deficit, which feels like a perpetual headline over the last 15 years.
Today, Vanguard released its newest bond fund, the Vanguard Multi-Sector Income Bond ETF (VGMS).
Integrating volatile and illiquid assets into the ETF structure is something to be avoided, Doubleline CEO and CIO Gundlach said.
A new culture of reform at Japanese companies offers exciting potential for equity investors.
In the current land of uncertainty the markets and investors find themselves in, the monthly Employment Situation report is ‘must-see TV’ and will remain that way for the foreseeable future.
Supporters of tax cuts argue that they eventually "pay for themselves" and lower deficits through economic growth and increased revenue, even without significant spending cuts.
What's the debt ceiling? Learn how the debt ceiling works and how a default on federal debt could impact the U.S. stock market and economy.
With the world order in flux, investors can look to fortify portfolios by diversifying across global markets and capitalizing on attractive, high quality yields.
This series has been updated to include the May release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $52,538, down 5.8% from over 50 years ago.
Inflation rose for the first time in four months in May. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index was at 2.4% year-over-year, up from 2.3% in April but lower than the expected 2.5% growth.
US Treasuries surged as easing US consumer inflation prompted traders to increase their wagers on more than one Federal Reserve interest-rate cut this year.
Back in 2016, Intercontinental Exchange Inc., the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, revealed that it was considering an offer for the London Stock Exchange Group Plc.
US stocks oscillated between small gains and losses on Wednesday, as traders look past an upbeat report on cooling consumer prices and assess the outlook for global trade.
Underlying US inflation rose in May by less than forecast for the fourth month in a row, suggesting companies are largely holding back on passing higher tariff costs through to consumers.
While the immediate path for tariffs may drift lower, the U.S. legislative branch is hammering out a tax and spending bill that seems to favor tax cuts over lower spending, reviving worries over the U.S. budget deficit and a growing debt burden that cannot be ignored.
Fixed Income
Treasury Yields Snapshot: June 20, 2025
The yield on the 10-year note ended June 20, 2025 at 4.38%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.90% and the 30-year note ended at 4.89%.
Why Cutting Federal Spending to Pre-Pandemic Levels Is So Hard
Given that the bill’s failure to reduce the deficit is due in part to its extension and expansion of the special tax treatment for non-corporate businesses that Johnson insisted on in 2017, which will cost an estimated $820 billion over the next decade, the senator does not make for the most credible of deficit hawks.
Bessent’s Top Bank Reform is Good for Markets
US banks seem likely to get the changes they want to an obscure but important rule known as the supplementary leverage ratio.
The Fed’s Waiting Game: Why It’s Good News for Bond Investors
This is the first in a three-part series outlining why I believe bonds are set to outperform. Here, I focus on the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate, the June 2025 meeting, and why the Fed’s approach is positive for bond investors. Parts 2 and 3 will address valuation, politics, recession risk, and the secular horizon.
Alpha Reimagined
How big data, AI and the human element can combine to better pursue consistent alpha.
Macro Drivers: Positioning for 2025’s Geopolitical Realignment
CEO Ali Dibadj provides an update on the three macro drivers we believe will shape markets in the second half of 2025 and how Janus Henderson is helping clients position for a brighter investment future.
5 Themes Defining Bond ETF Investing Today
New strategies, shifting flows, and innovative technologies are driving a more dynamic and diversified marketplace in fixed income ETFs.
The Case for Going Global Now
The overall U.S. equity market has fully recovered from its April lows, landing in an essentially flat position as of 5/31/2025. However, it’s been a wild ride for many investors.
Buying a Bond at a Premium Doesn’t Mean You Will Lose Money
Drew O’Neil discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
Key Considerations for Evaluating Non-Hardship 401(k) Withdrawals
It's important to consider non-hardship 401(k) withdrawals carefully. Our Bill Cass explains why individuals should check plan eligibility and consider asset protection and tax implications.
A Goldilocks Inflation Moment, Tariffs and All
Despite consumer fears of 1970s-style inflation, actual CPI has cooled to just 2.4%. Jeff Weniger makes the case that we may be living in a Goldilocks scenario, where price trends align with a stable and balanced economic environment.
Dog Days Ahead
The U.S. economy is growing accustomed to elevated uncertainty.
Fed’s Interest Rate Decision: June 18, 2025
The Federal Reserve concluded its fourth meeting of the year by keeping the federal funds rate (FFR) at 4.25-4.50%, as expected.
Blackstone Sees $200 Billion in Potential European Credit Deals
Blackstone Inc. sees a $200 billion investment opportunity in European credit over the next 10 years, underscoring the region’s appeal to investors looking for alternatives to the US.
Wall Street Fears Hawkish Fed Will Trigger Stock Market Selloff
Not much seems to faze the stock market these days even as risks abound, from war in the Middle East, to trade tensions, to slowing growth. But Wall Street’s biggest fear arrives today when the Federal Reserve meeting ends and Chair Jerome Powell explains the central bank’s outlook.
US Stocks Rise as Investors Await Federal Reserve Rate Decision
US stocks gained on Wednesday with investors looking ahead to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision.
M&A Watch: A String of Hot IPOs Could Spark Second-Half Dealmaking
Many small deals have done through, including ones from overseas, and an active calendar of corporate shareholder meetings could offer fresh insights into capital plans.
Unemployment Claims Down 5K, Lower Than Expected
In the week ending June 14th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 245,000. This represents a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was lower than the 246,000 forecast.
As Japanese Companies Change, Investment Opportunities Bloom
We remain bullish about many of the corporate changes taking place in Japan. Toyota Group recently announced it was taking Toyota Industries private (its auto parts and forklift business) to simplify the group’s structure.
Hold Onto Your Gold
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses the recent performance of gold and its ongoing role as a store of value in investors’ portfolios.
Eversource Energy for Income and Total Return
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, co-founder of FAST Graphs, aka Mr. Valuation analyzes Eversource Energy (ES), for Income and Total Return, a New England-based utility known for its consistent earnings and dividend growth.
Supply Chain Messages About the Trade War
What happens in global supply chains can provide insight into how tariffs and the trade war may affect economies around the world.
2025 Midyear Outlook: Where the Economy and Markets Go From Here
The first half of the year has left investors with many questions about the path ahead for the economy and markets. Unfortunately, there haven’t been many concrete answers. Tariff announcements and trade negotiations have commanded the room.
The Iran-Israel Conflict And The Likely Impact On The Market
The Iran-Israel conflict and equity markets are now in sharp focus. As direct strikes escalated in June 2025, global financial markets responded immediately. Israel’s airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and energy infrastructure triggered retaliatory missile and drone attacks from Iran.
How Can “Smart Beta” Go Horribly Right?
Smart beta strategies have endured a prolonged stretch of disappointing results, falling short of investor expectations. This article explores the underlying causes of that performance and outlines why the conditions ahead could be more favorable.
Dueling Economies
The United States consumes a large share of its GDP; China, not so much. The result is Yin and Yang. On net, China produces and the US consumes.
Treasury Tax Tension
The draft of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) runs more than 1,000 pages. Analysis of the legislation has focused primarily on its impact on the U.S. federal deficit: the Congressional Budget Office estimates that passage would add almost $3 trillion to the national debt over the coming decade.
Treasuries Hold Gains as Fed Rate-Cut Expectations Remain Intact
Treasury yields declined Tuesday as US economic data left intact expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least once more in 2025.
More Central Banks Than Ever Plan to Build Up Their Gold Hoards
A record share of the world’s central banks plans to accumulate more gold over the next 12 months, drawn by bullion’s performance during times of crisis and protection against inflation.
Bigger Than Tariffs
Describes how what is happening to the economy is bigger than tariffs, it is the business cycle. It includes a comment on the FOMC meeting tomorrow, uses economic data up through this morning (retail sales), and includes a nice cartoon which can be used as a thumbnail (below).
Life Expectancy: The (F)Law of Averages
Let’s talk about life expectancy. More specifically – should it play a role in retirement planning?You might be surprised to learn that the answer is: Absolutely not.
Active ETFs Now Outnumber Passive Funds in Industry Watershed Moment
The ETF market has hit a symbolic turning point: active funds now outnumber passive ones for the first time, marking a sharp break from the industry’s index-tracking origins — even if actively managed assets still account for just a tenth of assets.
NAHB Housing Market Index: Builder Confidence Drops to 2.5-Year Low
Builder confidence fell for a second straight month in June as elevated rates, tariffs, and economic uncertainty dragged builder sentiment to its lowest level in 2.5 years.
Fannie and Freddie Can Never Be Truly Privatized: The Editorial Board
Ever since their near collapse during the 2008 financial crisis, the mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have performed impressively under the conservatorship of the US government.
As Munis See Increased Issuance, Here’s an Active Choice
The fund shines through as a prime option worthy of consideration among the vast alternatives present in the muni market. With their rare combination of credit quality and yield, munis are offering fixed income investors prime benefits in a still-uncertain bond environment.
Stocks Rally in May as Tariff Fears Subside; Long Yields Move Higher
Bonds hit a headwind in May as rates rose, but year to date, they have helped offset some of the volatility seen in stocks. See Table 2 for bond index returns for May 2025, Q1 2025, and YTD.
RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Economic Index
The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of June 6th, the index was at 8.404, down 1.218 from the previous week, with 3 of the 6 components in expansion territory.
5 Stocks That Subscribers Asked To See: AES Corp, Amgen, Air Products, ASML, Broadcom
In this video, 5 Stocks That Subscribers Asked To See, Chuck Carnevale, co-founder of FAST Graphs, aka Mr. Valuation addresses subscriber requests by providing a high-level review of five companies, AES Corp (AES), Amgen (AMGN), Air Products (APD), ASML Holding (ASML) and Broadcom (AVGO).
It’s Not About Trump
Michael Browne, Chief Investment Officer at Martin Currie discusses inflation, energy and the art of the possible.
Trump’s Trade Deal with China Is a Tailwind for Global Shipping
President Donald Trump’s announcement on Wednesday of a new trade agreement with China is the kind of headline that gives markets a sense of relief. As I overheard this week at Wealth Management’s EDGE conference, which I attended in Boca Raton, Florida, we may have dodged a recession.
Muted Market Response to Iran Attacks
This week’s market resilience in the face of rising geopolitical tensions underscores an important structural shift. The Israeli strikes and broader Middle East dynamics, while concerning, sparked only a modest reaction—a far cry from the volatility such events triggered in past decades.
Giving Retirees More Income Security — Without Triggering Annuity Aversion
How do we give clients what they’re truly looking for — income certainty, simplicity, peace of mind —without triggering resistance that shuts the conversation down?
Buy, Borrow, Die: Why This Popular Tax Strategy for the Rich Doesn’t Work
The ever-louder brouhaha surrounding BBD is much ado about nothing. It is expensive, dangerous, and likely to benefit only bankers and brokerage firms.
Traders Hold Their Nerve to Ride Bumpy Emerging-Market Rally
Investors are betting the months-long rally in emerging markets has further to run even as tariff threats and escalating geopolitical tensions signal a rocky path ahead.
Weekly Economic Snapshot: Inflation Edges Up While Sentiment Rebounds
Last week’s economic signals showed cautious optimism and renewed concern. Inflation saw a slight uptick in May.
Blackstone Taps Ex-Lazard Top Dealmaker, Aims to Back More Banks
Blackstone Inc. hired Joseph Cassanelli, a banker who drove major Wall Street deals, as the private equity firm prepares to invest more in banks and insurers.
Pre-IPO Marketplace Hiive Eyes Funding as Competition Rises
Hiive Markets Ltd., an online trading platform for shares of venture-backed companies, is hoping to raise as much as $100 million as soon as this year, its chief executive officer said.
Time to Audit the Gold: Why Congress Is Finally Asking Hard Questions
The Gold Reserve Transparency Act of 2025 (House Bill 3795), calls for a full, modern audit of America's gold holdings—something that hasn't occurred in over 65 years.
The Deficit Narrative May Find its Cure in Artificial Intelligence
Lately, the “deficit narrative” has dominated much of the financial media, particularly those channels that are continual “purveyors of doom.” In this post, we will discuss the “deficit narrative,” the likely outcomes, and why the cure for the deficit may be found in Artificial Intelligence.
The Investment Signal in the Noise
Separating the signal from the noise may be the hardest challenge investors face. We’re all surrounded by constantly changing but mostly unimportant information. Of the small part that really is important, we must decide if it affects our investments.
Schwab Market Perspective: 2025 Mid-Year Outlook
Tariff policy has clouded expectations for the second half of the year, but there are ways to navigate through the fog.
Building Steady Streams: Dividend ETFs in Focus
Fears of an impending recession may be fading, but economists are still expecting tepid GDP growth for the year.
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly: The Japan Problem
Just one day after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba likened Japan’s debt situation to that of Greece, the country faced its weakest demand for 20-year bonds since 2012.
How 529 Plans Are Treated for Estate Planning and Taxes
A 529 plan can play a strategic role in estate planning, especially for families looking to reduce taxes while saving for education. Contributions to a 529 plan may be excluded from your taxable estate, potentially lowering future estate tax liability.
AI: The Challenges for Investors
In part one of our new series, AI Alpha, we explored the sweeping potential of artificial intelligence (AI) as a transformative force.
JPMorgan Can Retain Junior Bankers With Cash, Not Threats
Investment banks and private equity firms are fighting over the kids again.
The South Is Beating Inflation — But Not Housing
US economic data continue to send mixed signals, keeping uncertainty high on interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve later this year.
Fixed Income Outlook: A Not-so-Random Walk
Alex Veroude, Global Head of Fixed Income, believes fixed income investors can prepare for an uncertain journey by recognising trends and diversifying across different assets.
What Closed-End Funds Could Offer Amid Uncertain Times
Global markets may be more rattled than ever, but advisors can count on closed-end funds to offer yield, portfolio diversity, and more.
The Florida Pension Fund Managers Who've Beaten the S&P 500 Over 50 Years
Unlike most other US public retirement plans of its size, the Tampa Fire & Police Pension Fund doesn’t invest in hedge funds, private equity or private credit.
Vanguard Seeks SEC Approval to Expand Tax-Busting Fund Design
Vanguard Group Inc., the investment giant famous for low-cost index funds, is seeking regulatory approval to expand its signature tax-saving fund structure — as anticipation grows that the Securities and Exchange Commission under Paul Atkins will soon embrace the design en masse.
Options Signal EM Firms’ Outperformance Could Fade: Taking Stock
For US traders, developing-country stocks have been a surprising source of returns as Donald Trump’s trade war roiled the S&P 500 Index.
Washington: What to Watch Now
The Senate is continuing to work behind the scenes to develop its version of the "One Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill that passed the House by a singe vote in May.
Invest in Enterprise Products Partners for High and Stable Income
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, co-founder of FAST Graphs, aka Mr. Valuation presents a detailed analysis of Enterprise Products Partners (EPD), a midstream master limited partnership (MLP) known for its high income potential, offering investors a stable and growing dividend yield.
"Yen-Carry" Anniversary Nears, but Worries Fade
Summer re-runs are popular on TV, but a repeat of last August's "yen-carry" market upheaval isn't likely on the schedule. A shift in positioning by investors is one reason.
The Compute Capital Supercycle: AI’s Silent Infrastructure Revolution
In the history of technological progress, there's often a critical misreading. We think the leap is in the product—the engine, the chip, the app.
What Business Owners Need to Know About the New Tax Bill
The US 2025 tax bill enhances certain deductions and includes provisions for business growth and development. Our Bill Cass shares the highlights of what is being debated on Capitol Hill and the impact on business owners.
Equities Outlook: Era of Rapid Change Creates Opportunities
Head of EMEA and Asia Pacific Equities Lucas Klein and Head of Americas Equities Marc Pinto argue that progress on the trade impasse, further monetary easing, pro-growth reforms, and an innovation revolution should all prove supportive to equities over the mid term once the market moves past near-term volatility.
An Active Option to Ponder as Bonds Look More Compelling
With tariff news providing constant equity market fluctuations, the case for bonds becomes more compelling. The added uncertainty also punctuates the need for an active management strategy, which one particular Vanguard ETF offers.
Should Investors Consider Options-Based Strategies to Help Manage Portfolio Risk?
Financial markets have been experiencing some of their wildest trading days in history this year. Stock and bond prices have been moving in unison—an alarming scenario for investors and their advisors. With increased volatility, long-term investors might benefit from additional exposure to alternative strategies within their portfolio allocations.
Harvard and Yale Will Finally Lift the Veil on Private Assets
If I told someone with even a little investing experience that I own an asset that pays like stocks but is stable like bonds, they would probably think I was a huckster or a fool. Yet many of the most sophisticated investors claim to own such a thing.
Cautious Optimism: Shift Exposure, Stay Balanced
Despite inflation worries, fiscal deficit concerns, and continued geopolitical conflict, equity markets posted strong returns in May on the back of easing tariff tensions, lower probability of recession, and better than expected US Q1 earnings.
Producer Price Index: Wholesale Inflation Cooler Than Expected in May
Wholesale inflation heated up in May but was still cooler than anticipated. The producer price index for final demand was up 0.1% month-over-month after falling 0.2% in April. This was lower than the expected 0.2% growth.
US Long-Dated Debt Faces Crucial Test in $22 Billion Auction
After weeks of hand-wringing around demand for long-term US debt, all eyes are on Thursday’s 30-year Treasury auction for a fresh read on whether spiraling deficits are causing investors to shun the maturity.
A Digital Dollar Is a Trade War Weapon
While crypto’s roots are libertarian and anti-state, stablecoins could serve to entrench the existing tech and monetary order dominated by the US, as 95% of them are dollar-denominated.
Deficit Pressures Treasuries… But No Crisis: US Treasury Market Is ‘Too Big to Fail’
The first half of 2025 has been driven by headlines that have caused volatility in both the stock and bond markets. While tariff negotiations have commanded the most attention, we are now pivoting to the federal budget deficit, which feels like a perpetual headline over the last 15 years.
Vanguard Debuts New Active Multi-Sector Bond ETF
Today, Vanguard released its newest bond fund, the Vanguard Multi-Sector Income Bond ETF (VGMS).
Gundlach: Illiquid Assets Don’t Belong in Liquid Vehicles
Integrating volatile and illiquid assets into the ETF structure is something to be avoided, Doubleline CEO and CIO Gundlach said.
Japan’s Corporate Reforms Create a Catalyst for Equity Returns
A new culture of reform at Japanese companies offers exciting potential for equity investors.
The More Things Change, the More They Stay the Same
In the current land of uncertainty the markets and investors find themselves in, the monthly Employment Situation report is ‘must-see TV’ and will remain that way for the foreseeable future.
Will the Trump Tax Cuts Pay for Themselves?
Supporters of tax cuts argue that they eventually "pay for themselves" and lower deficits through economic growth and increased revenue, even without significant spending cuts.
What Is the Debt Ceiling and Why Does It Matter?
What's the debt ceiling? Learn how the debt ceiling works and how a default on federal debt could impact the U.S. stock market and economy.
The Fragmentation Era
With the world order in flux, investors can look to fortify portfolios by diversifying across global markets and capitalizing on attractive, high quality yields.
Real Middle Class Wages as of May 2025
This series has been updated to include the May release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $52,538, down 5.8% from over 50 years ago.
Consumer Price Index: Inflation Rises to 2.4% in May, Lower Than Expected
Inflation rose for the first time in four months in May. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index was at 2.4% year-over-year, up from 2.3% in April but lower than the expected 2.5% growth.
Treasuries Rally as Soft Inflation Fuels Bets on Fed Rate Cuts
US Treasuries surged as easing US consumer inflation prompted traders to increase their wagers on more than one Federal Reserve interest-rate cut this year.
London’s Incredible Shrinking Stock Market
Back in 2016, Intercontinental Exchange Inc., the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, revealed that it was considering an offer for the London Stock Exchange Group Plc.
US Stocks Waffle as Traders Weigh US-China Trade Progress
US stocks oscillated between small gains and losses on Wednesday, as traders look past an upbeat report on cooling consumer prices and assess the outlook for global trade.
US Core Inflation Rises Less Than Forecast for Fourth Month
Underlying US inflation rose in May by less than forecast for the fourth month in a row, suggesting companies are largely holding back on passing higher tariff costs through to consumers.
A Focus on Fundamentals
While the immediate path for tariffs may drift lower, the U.S. legislative branch is hammering out a tax and spending bill that seems to favor tax cuts over lower spending, reviving worries over the U.S. budget deficit and a growing debt burden that cannot be ignored.