Join the experts at abrdn as they discuss the nuances of municipal bond investing, how current events are shaping the opportunities for this asset class as we head into 2025, and where municipal bonds may fit within your fixed-income allocation.
Multiple jobholders account for 5.4% of civilian employment. The survey captures data for four subcategories of the multi-job workforce, the relative sizes of which we've illustrated in a pie chart.
Let's take a close look at November's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. The latest data shows that 82.8% of total employed workers are full-time (35+ hours) and 17.2% of total employed workers are part-time (<35 hours).
Wholesale inflation rose 0.4% last month, above economist estimates of 0.2%. The producer price index for final demand was up 0.1% month-over-month (s.a.). On an annual basis, headline PPI accelerated from 2.6% in October to 3.0% in November.
In the week ending December 7th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 242,000. This represents an increase of 17,000 from the previous week's figure and is worse than forecasts for 221,000.
China got a head start on a looming trade war with the US by showcasing a new range of tools it’s prepared to use if Donald Trump makes good on his threat to punish the world’s second-biggest economy with tariffs.
The near-$5 trillion hedge fund industry is having one of the toughest years in decades in convincing fee-conscious investors to fork out cash for new market players.
To most of us, a power plant is a source of electricity. To Exxon Mobil Corp., it’s a machine that converts natural gas into money. And this is a propitious time for doing that.
In the two years since ChatGPT burst onto the scene, artificial intelligence has come to dominate investor consciousness more than any other technological breakthrough in the past two decades.
We expect high yield bond issuers to maintain healthy balance sheets and defaults to remain low.
SpaceX and its investors have agreed to purchase as much as $1.25 billion of insider shares in a transaction valuing Elon Musk’s rocket and satellite maker at about $350 billion, according to an internal email seen by Bloomberg.
Republicans have lashed out at the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a landmark package of incentives for clean energy, since it was passed two years ago.
Inflation optimists were riding high at the start of 2024. Price pressures seemed to be cooling quickly, and market pricing suggested that the Federal Reserve might lower policy rates by a whopping 1.75 percentage points this year.
Our outlook on the 11 S&P 500 equity sectors.
To maximize tax benefits from year-end charitable giving, you may want to use strategies like lumping contributions, making qualified charitable distributions from IRAs, and gifting appreciated assets.
An enduring image from 2024 will be the capture of the SpaceX booster rocket by the Mechazilla robot arms on its return to Earth. This achievement served as a powerful metaphor for the year: the improbable not only became possible but redefined expectations.
To improve potential returns and mitigate risks, investors should choose from the widest range of opportunities.
Better than expected economic data in November appears to be thwarting the FOMC's efforts to engineer lower short-term interest rates.
Riverfront's stock selection team performs analysis on individual equities that provides useful insights into how we position our portfolios.
The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of November 29, the index was at 32.851, up 1.819 from the previous week, with 5 of the 6 components in expansion territory.
This series has been updated to include the November release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $51,510, down 6.5% from over 50 years ago. After adjusting for inflation, hourly earnings are below their all-time high from April 2020.
Inflation rose slightly in November. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index rose to 2.75% year-over-year, right in line with economist expectations. Additionally, core CPI came in at 3.3% as expected.
Here are six key areas where AI can make a transformative impact on financial advisory practice.
US consumer prices rose at a firm pace in November that was in line with expectations, solidifying expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next week.
US Treasuries gained and traders boosted their bets on a Federal Reserve interest-rate reduction next week after a report showed consumer prices last month accelerated in line with expectations.
What is there to say with Bitcoin at $100,000 for those of us who thought $10,000 looked nuts.
ByteDance Ltd.’s options for TikTok in the US are looking increasingly desolate, as the tech war between Washington and Beijing boils over.
Google debuted a new version of its flagship artificial intelligence model that it said is twice as fast as its previous version and will power virtual agents that assist users.
China’s economic ascent over the past four decades has been a remarkable story of growth, driven by several factors.
There are not many attractive opportunities in the US large-cap space. History suggests the market is overdue for a correction.
For a twist on this week’s column, I will share some stress management techniques I often teach to help mitigate the overwhelming feeling of “I can’t do this all!” and to find ways to enjoy the December rush.
Effective listening can help convert more prospects into clients. Your ability to listen effectively can be the deciding factor in whether they choose to work with you.
Help overcome market timing and loss aversion with dollar-cost averaging.
The U.S. economy and stock market are entering 2025 from a position of strength, but risks of volatility—especially pertaining to policy—are much higher compared to last year.
We examine how a potentially complex bond market in 2025 could still offer opportunities in high-yield bonds, municipal bonds, and inflation-protected securities.
For us as investors, we can say that this is déjà vu all over again as we practice our stock picking discipline.
The Santa Claus rally that started a few weeks back continued as the market logged its 53rd record high for 2024. While the Scrooges bemoaned inflation and tariffs, other investors embraced the strong economic data and loaded their sleds with market returns.
The surprise nomination of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to head healthcare policy in the U.S. caused substantial volatility in November. But despite heightened uncertainty, the sector’s long-term outlook appears intact, say Portfolio Managers Andy Acker and Dan Lyons – giving investors a potential opportunity to invest at attractive valuations.
Financial advisors are in a prime position to help clients adopt preventive measures against tax-related identity theft. Effective protection involves a mix of robust security practices, ongoing fraud prevention education, and tools for monitoring client accounts.
We decided to see which companies saw the greatest spillover effects from these two revolutionary technologies.
Waiting until 67 or 70 may not feel like the best choice in the moment. Yet the extra income could mean more freedom from financial stress and more ability to enjoy your later years with peace of mind.
India’s institutional strength used to be reflected in the reliability of its national accounts.
December is a big month for stock buybacks, and by month’s end, companies are expected to spend more money repurchasing shares this year than ever before.
A bout of selling buffeted crypto as the optimism sparked by President-elect Donald Trump’s embrace of the sector begins to cool.
Alphabet Inc.’s Google is investing in mega energy parks that will generate renewable power as the company races to fuel its data centers.
Today’s video on the Healthcare Sector Stocks is another in the continuing series of videos where we are looking for value in each of the 10 major sectors as reported by Standard & Poor’s. This particular video is going to be on the Healthcare Sector.
Strong 2024 performance may be tough to replicate given tight credit spreads, but we still have a favorable view on corporate bond investments given the strong economy.
The markets sure had a lot to process this year – from surprisingly resilient economic data, to the Fed kicking off its easing cycle to an unprecedented presidential election season.
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Investment Strategist BeiChen Lin discussed the ouster of France’s prime minister and the potential market implications. He also provided an update on the health of the U.S. economy.
When the ECB’s rate-cutting cycle ends, should the neutral rate be far higher than pre-pandemic? Not in our view.
Why hasn’t tighter monetary policy caused a recession? One reason: federal budget deficits have been huge.
Last week we processed robust economic data and growing clarity on Federal Reserve policy, instilling a consensus view for a strong market that is now well reflected in positioning.
Join the experts at Invesco and VettaFi for a deep dive on what investors need to consider going into the new year. Jason Bloom will join us in the second half to discuss the outlooks for Fixed Income
Amid concerns about the impact of rising deficits on U.S. Treasuries, it helps to differentiate bond investments by maturity, credit rating, and global relative value.
Might another market liquidity event be on the horizon? While there is generally good liquidity in the financial system, there are some nascent signs that problems could arise.
As the office buildings market faces headwinds, investors look to alternative sectors.
A resilient US economy and deepening geopolitical tensions around the world are making asset managers rethink their expectations for a weaker dollar.
'The past is not necessarily prologue,' said VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth, in advance of tomorrow’s Market Outlook Symposium.
he economic-policy consensus that prevails in the US is right about one thing.
As a concept, environmentally responsible investing is in its flop era. Right-wing backlash has turned “ESG” into a four-letter word in terrified corporate boardrooms.
I am (mostly) bullish on crypto and (usually) skeptical of higher taxes, especially on capital gains.
We believe municipal bonds currently offer a compelling balance of risk and reward for investors in higher tax brackets.
Financial markets often move in cycles where enthusiasm drives prices higher, sometimes far beyond what fundamentals justify.
Whether you want to buy or rent, finding an affordable, comfortable home can be extremely difficult, if not impossible.
Just a few short years (months?) ago, few would have believed it possible. But it happened: Bitcoin has traded above $100,000 for the first time ever.
Investment themes are highly dynamic, shouldn’t your investment process be too? Learn about a systematic framework to help with identifying and investing across the themes driving markets.
Do you recall the famous line from the movie Glengarry Glen Ross? “Always Be Closing.” This may be good advice later in the process of working with a prospective client, but in the first conversation, try this instead: Always Be Curious.
U.S. policies are set for a major reshaping as full Republican control takes hold in 2025.
CEO Ali Dibadj highlights the three macro drivers that investors must navigate in 2025 and beyond, as well as the importance of actively positioning for a brighter investment future.
Five of Franklin Templeton’s specialist investment managers provide their annual outlooks for the global economy and key asset classes, including global equities; global fixed income; global infrastructure; the macro fixed income environment; municipal bond market; high yield bond market; small cap equities; U.S. dollar; U.S. economy; and U.S. equities.
China’s central bank will deliver the biggest interest-rate cuts in a decade next year as policymakers intensify efforts to shore up growth and arrest deflation, in the view of a number of Wall Street lenders.
Private credit may be all the rage among investors, but there are better alternatives, according to JPMorgan Asset Management.
In the port city of Duluth, Minnesota, local activists and Washington-based groups are coalescing to scrutinize — and possibly stall — a $6.2 billion acquisition of a power utility led by Global Infrastructure Partners.
Our Cash Indicator methodology acts as a plan in case of an emergency. This is analogous to the multiple safety systems in a modern automobile, which includes an airbag. Importantly, each of these systems work together to potentially help smooth the ride.
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has released its November services purchasing managers' index (PMI). The headline composite index is at 52.1, worse than the forecast of 55.5. The latest reading moves the index back into expansion territory for 51st time in the past 54 months.
Bitcoin has shot up more than 40% since Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election, in part on hopes that he’ll champion a government reserve devoted entirely to the cryptocurrency.
Bond traders seeking support for bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later this month will closely watch Friday’s US employment report for November.
Hedge fund executive Cliff Asness says artificial intelligence is becoming “annoyingly better” at doing parts of his job.
Historical trends are being permanently broken in real time as mega forces, like the rise of artificial intelligence (AI), transform economies.
How to unlock value in a complex market landscape.
Over the past few years, I’ve written numerous articles and given numerous presentations on Direct Indexing.
With year-end looming, consider taking action now to determine if annual gifts make sense. Our Bill Cass shares useful strategies to consider for estate planning.
The bond market is caught between the Federal Reserve's plans to cut interest rates and the risk of higher inflation and federal debt levels.
The explosive growth of the ETF industry has attracted a full range of new entrants this year — from smaller individuals to the largest hedge funds in the world. More and more fund managers are making their foray into the world of ETFs.
Will the Fed make one more rate cut to end 2024? One more cut would top off what has been a very positive fall for rate cut hopefuls considering how long the Fed waited.
The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for October showed that core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 2.3%. The October core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 3.3%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $17,236 for an annualized real return of 10.94%.
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. On August 4, 2020, the 10-year Treasury yield hit its all-time low of 0.52%. As of November 29, it was 4.18%.
With the Q3 GDP second estimate and the November close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 194.7%, unchanged from the previous quarter.
Fixed Income
2025 Municipal Bond Outlook: Building a pathway to tax-advantaged income
Join the experts at abrdn as they discuss the nuances of municipal bond investing, how current events are shaping the opportunities for this asset class as we head into 2025, and where municipal bonds may fit within your fixed-income allocation.
Multiple Jobholders Account for 5.4% of All Employed
Multiple jobholders account for 5.4% of civilian employment. The survey captures data for four subcategories of the multi-job workforce, the relative sizes of which we've illustrated in a pie chart.
A Closer Look at Full-time and Part-time Employment
Let's take a close look at November's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. The latest data shows that 82.8% of total employed workers are full-time (35+ hours) and 17.2% of total employed workers are part-time (<35 hours).
Producer Price Index: Wholesale Inflation Rose in November
Wholesale inflation rose 0.4% last month, above economist estimates of 0.2%. The producer price index for final demand was up 0.1% month-over-month (s.a.). On an annual basis, headline PPI accelerated from 2.6% in October to 3.0% in November.
Unemployment Claims Up 17K, Much Worse Than Expected
In the week ending December 7th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 242,000. This represents an increase of 17,000 from the previous week's figure and is worse than forecasts for 221,000.
Xi Readies Bargaining Chips for US Trade War
China got a head start on a looming trade war with the US by showcasing a new range of tools it’s prepared to use if Donald Trump makes good on his threat to punish the world’s second-biggest economy with tariffs.
Hedge-Fund Startups Dwindle as Managers Battle Pressure on Fees
The near-$5 trillion hedge fund industry is having one of the toughest years in decades in convincing fee-conscious investors to fork out cash for new market players.
Exxon's AI Power Play Aims to Beat Nuclear
To most of us, a power plant is a source of electricity. To Exxon Mobil Corp., it’s a machine that converts natural gas into money. And this is a propitious time for doing that.
Big Tech Is Betting on AI. Should You?
In the two years since ChatGPT burst onto the scene, artificial intelligence has come to dominate investor consciousness more than any other technological breakthrough in the past two decades.
Yields and Credit Quality Make High Yield Bonds Attractive for 2025
We expect high yield bond issuers to maintain healthy balance sheets and defaults to remain low.
SpaceX Valuation Jumps to About $350 Billion in Insider Deal
SpaceX and its investors have agreed to purchase as much as $1.25 billion of insider shares in a transaction valuing Elon Musk’s rocket and satellite maker at about $350 billion, according to an internal email seen by Bloomberg.
The Future of the Inflation Reduction Act
Republicans have lashed out at the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a landmark package of incentives for clean energy, since it was passed two years ago.
Inflation Anxiety Just Got a Reality Check
Inflation optimists were riding high at the start of 2024. Price pressures seemed to be cooling quickly, and market pricing suggested that the Federal Reserve might lower policy rates by a whopping 1.75 percentage points this year.
Sector Views: Monthly Stock Sector Outlook
Our outlook on the 11 S&P 500 equity sectors.
End-of-Year Giving Tips: Tax Savings Through Charitable Contributions
To maximize tax benefits from year-end charitable giving, you may want to use strategies like lumping contributions, making qualified charitable distributions from IRAs, and gifting appreciated assets.
2025 Annual Global Market Outlook: The Mechazilla Moment
An enduring image from 2024 will be the capture of the SpaceX booster rocket by the Mechazilla robot arms on its return to Earth. This achievement served as a powerful metaphor for the year: the improbable not only became possible but redefined expectations.
Seeking Sterling Bond Exposure? Look Beyond the UK
To improve potential returns and mitigate risks, investors should choose from the widest range of opportunities.
Better Than Expected Economic Data in November
Better than expected economic data in November appears to be thwarting the FOMC's efforts to engineer lower short-term interest rates.
Value Investing in the US and Beyond
Riverfront's stock selection team performs analysis on individual equities that provides useful insights into how we position our portfolios.
RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Economic Index
The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of November 29, the index was at 32.851, up 1.819 from the previous week, with 5 of the 6 components in expansion territory.
Middle Class Hourly Wages as of November 2024
This series has been updated to include the November release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $51,510, down 6.5% from over 50 years ago. After adjusting for inflation, hourly earnings are below their all-time high from April 2020.
Consumer Price Index: Inflation Edges Up to 2.75% in November
Inflation rose slightly in November. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index rose to 2.75% year-over-year, right in line with economist expectations. Additionally, core CPI came in at 3.3% as expected.
How Artificial Intelligence Can Transform Your Practice
Here are six key areas where AI can make a transformative impact on financial advisory practice.
US Inflation in Line With Forecasts Solidifies Bets on Fed Cut
US consumer prices rose at a firm pace in November that was in line with expectations, solidifying expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next week.
Treasuries Rise as Inflation Data Fuels Wagers on a Fed Rate Cut
US Treasuries gained and traders boosted their bets on a Federal Reserve interest-rate reduction next week after a report showed consumer prices last month accelerated in line with expectations.
Does Bitcoin at $100,000 Signal a Last Laugh for HODLers?
What is there to say with Bitcoin at $100,000 for those of us who thought $10,000 looked nuts.
From TikTok to Nvidia, the Tech War Is Getting Uglier
ByteDance Ltd.’s options for TikTok in the US are looking increasingly desolate, as the tech war between Washington and Beijing boils over.
Google Rolls Out Faster Gemini AI Model to Power Agents
Google debuted a new version of its flagship artificial intelligence model that it said is twice as fast as its previous version and will power virtual agents that assist users.
Watching China’s Economic Miracle (and Relevance) Fade Before Our Eyes
China’s economic ascent over the past four decades has been a remarkable story of growth, driven by several factors.
Valuations Have Richened, But Areas Outside of Large-Caps Remain Attractive
There are not many attractive opportunities in the US large-cap space. History suggests the market is overdue for a correction.
‘Tis the Season to Be Stressed
For a twist on this week’s column, I will share some stress management techniques I often teach to help mitigate the overwhelming feeling of “I can’t do this all!” and to find ways to enjoy the December rush.
You're Not Listening!
Effective listening can help convert more prospects into clients. Your ability to listen effectively can be the deciding factor in whether they choose to work with you.
No Timing Needed
Help overcome market timing and loss aversion with dollar-cost averaging.
2025 U.S. Stocks and Economy Outlook
The U.S. economy and stock market are entering 2025 from a position of strength, but risks of volatility—especially pertaining to policy—are much higher compared to last year.
Bond Market Opportunities for Investors in 2025
We examine how a potentially complex bond market in 2025 could still offer opportunities in high-yield bonds, municipal bonds, and inflation-protected securities.
Déjà Vu All Over Again
For us as investors, we can say that this is déjà vu all over again as we practice our stock picking discipline.
Market Continues Record Streak: Santa Claus Rally in Full Swing
The Santa Claus rally that started a few weeks back continued as the market logged its 53rd record high for 2024. While the Scrooges bemoaned inflation and tariffs, other investors embraced the strong economic data and loaded their sleds with market returns.
Despite Political Headwinds, Healthcare Stocks Stay Anchored to Innovation
The surprise nomination of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to head healthcare policy in the U.S. caused substantial volatility in November. But despite heightened uncertainty, the sector’s long-term outlook appears intact, say Portfolio Managers Andy Acker and Dan Lyons – giving investors a potential opportunity to invest at attractive valuations.
A Taxpayer Horror Story: How One Client’s $800,000 Tax Refund Was Stolen and What Advisors Can Do About It
Financial advisors are in a prime position to help clients adopt preventive measures against tax-related identity theft. Effective protection involves a mix of robust security practices, ongoing fraud prevention education, and tools for monitoring client accounts.
The Spillover Effects of NVIDIA and Ozempic
We decided to see which companies saw the greatest spillover effects from these two revolutionary technologies.
The $182,000 Social Security Mistake That Could Limit Your Retirement
Waiting until 67 or 70 may not feel like the best choice in the moment. Yet the extra income could mean more freedom from financial stress and more ability to enjoy your later years with peace of mind.
India Shouldn’t Let Its Data Turn Chinese
India’s institutional strength used to be reflected in the reliability of its national accounts.
Worried About Stocks? $1 Trillion in Buybacks Will Help
December is a big month for stock buybacks, and by month’s end, companies are expected to spend more money repurchasing shares this year than ever before.
Crypto Volatility Picks Up as Trump-Fueled Rally Starts to Fray
A bout of selling buffeted crypto as the optimism sparked by President-elect Donald Trump’s embrace of the sector begins to cool.
Google Invests in Venture to Build Energy Parks for Data Centers
Alphabet Inc.’s Google is investing in mega energy parks that will generate renewable power as the company races to fuel its data centers.
13 Healthcare Sector Stocks With Healthy Valuation
Today’s video on the Healthcare Sector Stocks is another in the continuing series of videos where we are looking for value in each of the 10 major sectors as reported by Standard & Poor’s. This particular video is going to be on the Healthcare Sector.
2025 Corporate Bond Outlook
Strong 2024 performance may be tough to replicate given tight credit spreads, but we still have a favorable view on corporate bond investments given the strong economy.
The Fed Is Still Leaning Toward a December Rate Cut
The markets sure had a lot to process this year – from surprisingly resilient economic data, to the Fed kicking off its easing cycle to an unprecedented presidential election season.
What Investors Should Know About Political Turmoil in France
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Investment Strategist BeiChen Lin discussed the ouster of France’s prime minister and the potential market implications. He also provided an update on the health of the U.S. economy.
European Interest Rates: How Far to R*?
When the ECB’s rate-cutting cycle ends, should the neutral rate be far higher than pre-pandemic? Not in our view.
Irresponsible and Addictive Deficits
Why hasn’t tighter monetary policy caused a recession? One reason: federal budget deficits have been huge.
Over-Exuberant Positioning for a December Rally
Last week we processed robust economic data and growing clarity on Federal Reserve policy, instilling a consensus view for a strong market that is now well reflected in positioning.
Is your portfolio ready for 2025?
Join the experts at Invesco and VettaFi for a deep dive on what investors need to consider going into the new year. Jason Bloom will join us in the second half to discuss the outlooks for Fixed Income
Thoughts From the Bond Vigilantes
Amid concerns about the impact of rising deficits on U.S. Treasuries, it helps to differentiate bond investments by maturity, credit rating, and global relative value.
Frontrunning the Fed: Liquidity Is Worth Watching
Might another market liquidity event be on the horizon? While there is generally good liquidity in the financial system, there are some nascent signs that problems could arise.
The Shifting Landscape of Commercial Real Estate
As the office buildings market faces headwinds, investors look to alternative sectors.
Dollar Optimism Is Spreading From Hedge Funds to Asset Managers
A resilient US economy and deepening geopolitical tensions around the world are making asset managers rethink their expectations for a weaker dollar.
Tomorrow's Market Outlook Symposium Brings Critical Insight
'The past is not necessarily prologue,' said VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth, in advance of tomorrow’s Market Outlook Symposium.
The US Can’t Manufacture Its Way to a Thriving Middle Class
he economic-policy consensus that prevails in the US is right about one thing.
ESG Is in Its Flop Era
As a concept, environmentally responsible investing is in its flop era. Right-wing backlash has turned “ESG” into a four-letter word in terrified corporate boardrooms.
Crypto Doesn’t Deserve a Tax Exemption
I am (mostly) bullish on crypto and (usually) skeptical of higher taxes, especially on capital gains.
2025 Municipal Bond Outlook
We believe municipal bonds currently offer a compelling balance of risk and reward for investors in higher tax brackets.
Leverage And Speculation Are At Extremes
Financial markets often move in cycles where enthusiasm drives prices higher, sometimes far beyond what fundamentals justify.
Homes for Christmas
Whether you want to buy or rent, finding an affordable, comfortable home can be extremely difficult, if not impossible.
Bitcoin’s Rise to $100,000 Signals Global Adoption Shift
Just a few short years (months?) ago, few would have believed it possible. But it happened: Bitcoin has traded above $100,000 for the first time ever.
Thematic Investing: Tomorrow’s Themes, Today
Investment themes are highly dynamic, shouldn’t your investment process be too? Learn about a systematic framework to help with identifying and investing across the themes driving markets.
The ABCs of Introducing Yourself
Do you recall the famous line from the movie Glengarry Glen Ross? “Always Be Closing.” This may be good advice later in the process of working with a prospective client, but in the first conversation, try this instead: Always Be Curious.
An Investor’s Guide to Potential U.S. Policy Changes in 2025
U.S. policies are set for a major reshaping as full Republican control takes hold in 2025.
Macro Drivers: Actively Navigating Change and Complexity in 2025
CEO Ali Dibadj highlights the three macro drivers that investors must navigate in 2025 and beyond, as well as the importance of actively positioning for a brighter investment future.
Franklin Templeton’s 2025 Outlooks for Equities and Fixed Income Sectors
Five of Franklin Templeton’s specialist investment managers provide their annual outlooks for the global economy and key asset classes, including global equities; global fixed income; global infrastructure; the macro fixed income environment; municipal bond market; high yield bond market; small cap equities; U.S. dollar; U.S. economy; and U.S. equities.
Wall Street Banks Predict Biggest China Rate Cuts in Decade
China’s central bank will deliver the biggest interest-rate cuts in a decade next year as policymakers intensify efforts to shore up growth and arrest deflation, in the view of a number of Wall Street lenders.
JPMorgan Asset Prefers Real Estate and PE to Direct Lending
Private credit may be all the rage among investors, but there are better alternatives, according to JPMorgan Asset Management.
BlackRock’s Big Bet on GIP Puts Fink’s Firm in Local Spotlight
In the port city of Duluth, Minnesota, local activists and Washington-based groups are coalescing to scrutinize — and possibly stall — a $6.2 billion acquisition of a power utility led by Global Infrastructure Partners.
The December 2024 Dashboard: Our Three Layers of Risk Management
Our Cash Indicator methodology acts as a plan in case of an emergency. This is analogous to the multiple safety systems in a modern automobile, which includes an airbag. Importantly, each of these systems work together to potentially help smooth the ride.
ISM Services PMI Expanded for Fifth Straight Month in November
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has released its November services purchasing managers' index (PMI). The headline composite index is at 52.1, worse than the forecast of 55.5. The latest reading moves the index back into expansion territory for 51st time in the past 54 months.
A Bitcoin Reserve Would Be a Bad Deal for Americans
Bitcoin has shot up more than 40% since Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election, in part on hopes that he’ll champion a government reserve devoted entirely to the cryptocurrency.
Bond Traders Leaning on Fed Rate Cuts Eye Payrolls for Clues
Bond traders seeking support for bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later this month will closely watch Friday’s US employment report for November.
Asness’ AI Twin Heralds End of Human Fund Managers
Hedge fund executive Cliff Asness says artificial intelligence is becoming “annoyingly better” at doing parts of his job.
2025 Investment Outlook: Building the Transformation
Historical trends are being permanently broken in real time as mega forces, like the rise of artificial intelligence (AI), transform economies.
Turning the Corner? Commercial Real Estate Themes for 2025
How to unlock value in a complex market landscape.
Direct Indexing: The Smart Strategy Advisors Can’t Afford to Ignore in 2025
Over the past few years, I’ve written numerous articles and given numerous presentations on Direct Indexing.
Year-End Estate Planning: Strategies for Maximizing Tax Benefits and Legacy Planning
With year-end looming, consider taking action now to determine if annual gifts make sense. Our Bill Cass shares useful strategies to consider for estate planning.
2025 Treasury Bonds and Fixed Income Outlook
The bond market is caught between the Federal Reserve's plans to cut interest rates and the risk of higher inflation and federal debt levels.
ETFs Gone Hollywood? Heavyweights Enter the ETF Fray
The explosive growth of the ETF industry has attracted a full range of new entrants this year — from smaller individuals to the largest hedge funds in the world. More and more fund managers are making their foray into the world of ETFs.
Potential December Rate Cut to Kick-Start Active Investing Into 2025
Will the Fed make one more rate cut to end 2024? One more cut would top off what has been a very positive fall for rate cut hopefuls considering how long the Fed waited.
European Interest Rates: How Far to R*?
When the ECB’s rate-cutting cycle ends, should the neutral rate be far higher than pre-pandemic? Not in our view.
Two Measures of Inflation: October 2024
The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for October showed that core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 2.3%. The October core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 3.3%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.
The Total Return Roller Coaster
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $17,236 for an annualized real return of 10.94%.
Market Valuation, Inflation and Treasury Yields - November 2024
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. On August 4, 2020, the 10-year Treasury yield hit its all-time low of 0.52%. As of November 29, it was 4.18%.
Buffett Valuation Indicator: November 2024
With the Q3 GDP second estimate and the November close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 194.7%, unchanged from the previous quarter.