AllianceBernstein
Global Macro Outlook: Fourth Quarter 2024
Monetary policy began to transition from restrictive to neutral last quarter, and we’re optimistic that continued easing can prevent a hard landing.
Equity Outlook: As Volatility Rises, Resist the Tactical Temptation
Market conditions are shifting fast. But making impulsive changes to equity portfolios and allocations can be counterproductive.
Fixed-Income Outlook: Strategies for a Controlled Descent
We expect bond yields to trend gradually lower—but it may be a bumpy ride. These seven strategies may help investors take advantage.
Why the Euro High-Yield Market May Be Worth the Risk
We think it would be a mistake for investors to let tighter spreads and upcoming maturities deter them from the euro high-yield market.
Emerging Markets: Five Opportunities for Equity Investors
Emerging-market stocks are showing signs of life amid hints of earnings improvements. Where should investors look?
Thematic Investing: More Than Just a Good Story
Strategies and best practices for equity portfolios.
Demystifying Private Credit
A new wave of opportunity seems set to flow into private credit markets, which could enhance risk-adjusted returns and diversify portfolios. What's driving this potential?
Core Score: How a New Approach to Credit Investing May Harness More Alpha
Historically, investors have struggled to add meaningful alpha through security selection. A dynamic new credit scoring approach could change that.
Is Your Multi-Asset Strategy Equipped for an Economic Surprise?
With their unrivaled depth and breadth, US capital markets lend themselves well to multi-asset strategies. The US equity market is a key portfolio building block and has outpaced the stock markets of other developed markets over the past decade.
High-Yield Opportunity Persists, Despite Tight Spreads
High-yield investors put off by today’s narrow spreads could be missing out.
The 2024 US Election and Municipal Bonds: What to Know
Candidate tax policies could affect municipal bonds, but the bigger picture is important too.
Chinese Equities: How Investors Can Unlock the Power of Dividends
As more Chinese companies get comfortable paying dividends, investors may find new sources of equity return potential.
Expanding the Hunt for Attractively Valued Equities
When global equity markets tumbled in early August, investors got a glimpse of what a deeper correction could like for the US giants, and it wasn’t pretty. The so-called Magnificent Seven have dominated US and global equity market returns since late 2022—and valuations have soared—as earnings growth rebounded and on expectations that they will be the big winners from artificial intelligence (AI).
In an AI Arms Race, Investors Should Focus on Profit Potential
As the AI halo begins to fade, equity investors are seeking companies that can profit from—and not just pontificate about—artificial intelligence.
Should Retirement Income Planning Be “Do It Yourself” or “Just Do It for Me”?
Most DC plan participants pursue retirement readiness unassisted, but few grasp what’s required, according to our latest survey.
The Forgotten Style: What Ever Happened to Value?
Value has been in a protracted slump versus growth for years, but it’s been undergoing something of a makeover during that time.
Consumer Debt: Not a One-Size-Fits-All Investment Strategy
It’s a good time to check on consumer health.
China's Nuanced Outlook May Favor Corporate Bonds
China’s two-speed economy and the internationalization of the renminbi suggest long-term opportunities may be found amid near-term challenges.
Dynamic Landscape for Multi-Asset Income Seekers
Multi-asset strategies must adapt to a promising—but changeable—environment for generating income.
Lessons from Equity Investing with a Very Long Lens on Growth
Four interlinked principles form a compelling investment philosophy for uncovering promising growth companies.
Scanning the US Consumer: Conservatism, Not Collapse
Demand growth is cooling, but evidence suggests that overall fundamentals are still sound.
Multi-Asset Mid-Year Outlook Global Growth Picture Supports Risk Assets
Improving inflation and growth scenarios should enhance the equities and bond dynamic for multi-asset investors.
Capital Markets Outlook 3Q 2024: Distinguishing Signal from Noise
With growth moderating and inflation cooling, the US seems on track for a soft landing—as markets digest a stream of incoming information. Equity performance may be on the verge of broadening beyond a handful of stocks, and still-sizable bond yields bolster return potential.
Why the Fed’s Picking Up Speed Toward Rate Cuts
Earlier interest-rate cuts would come as good news for the US economy.
European Bonds: Have France’s Elections Changed the Game?
Across Europe, ruling parties are under pressure. Bond investors should stay active and invested, in our view.
Overcoming Inertia: How Home Bias Hurts US Investors
US investors often stick to US markets. But that could be a costly mistake—especially today.
Is AI a New Engine for Emerging-Market Equity Investors?
There’s more to artificial intelligence (AI) than the US tech giants. Equity investors can find overlooked opportunities in emerging-market companies.
Municipal Mid-Year Outlook: End the Waiting Game
With high yields and compelling opportunities, we think the muni market looks exceptionally attractive today.
Profits and Persistence: The Secret to Investing for Long-Term Growth
What should equity investors look for to find companies with strong economic profits, backed by clear business advantages?
Global Macro Outlook: Third Quarter 2024
There’s more evidence that growth is slowing, but it appears manageable and unlikely to lead to recession. While rate cuts have begun outside the US, we expect the Fed to follow suit by December. Political developments, especially the election cycle, are now coming into frame.
Equity Outlook: Making Way for the Magnificent Others
Despite narrow market concentration, we see opportunities in high-quality stocks that haven’t yet been rewarded.
Midyear Equity Outlook: Investing Beyond the Megacaps
If you told me at the beginning of the year that we were going to go from starting with six interest-rate cuts to now we’re hoping to get one, I would be shocked to say that the equity markets are up 15%.
Fixed-Income Midyear Outlook: Sail with the Tide
Don’t miss out. Prepare to take advantage of opportunities in the second half.
Asia’s New Balance: High-Yield Market Offers More Diversity, Lower Risk
The Asian high-yield market is evolving faster than investor perceptions.
Emerging-Market Stocks: Great Businesses Hide in a Murky Market Landscape
Sour sentiment toward emerging-market stocks is obscuring uncommon opportunities for equity investors.
Prompting AI: Can Better Conversations Drive Better Investment Research?
A richer dialogue between human experts and large language models may improve outcomes.
Calculated Risk Management: Strategy, Tools and Culture for Equity Portfolios
Investors need a better grasp of risk-management tools to gauge a portfolio’s strategic resilience in a rapidly changing world.
The New Frontier in Fixed Income: Systematic Investing
Bond investors have been looking for an approach that delivers attractive, repeatable, uncorrelated active returns. Is their wait over?
Mix of Participant Optimism and Anxiety Offers DC Plan Sponsors New Avenues for Engagement
Confidence is up, but inflation and other worries offer ways to work toward better outcomes.
Income…with a Side of Growth Potential
We think today’s market landscape calls for a different mix in multi-asset income strategies.
Premium Municipal Bonds: Myth vs. Fact
Higher coupons and interest payments can make premium municipal bonds worth the extra upfront cost.
AI Ethics and Regulation: How Investors Can Navigate the Maze
From potentially brand-damaging ethical risks to regulatory uncertainty, AI poses challenges for investors. But there is a path forward.
Value Stocks: Cracking the Quality Code
Today’s value stocks offer a magnificent mix of quality, forward-looking profitable firms.
Underwriting the Underwriters: Finding Opportunity in Consumer Loans
When it comes to investing in consumer debt, headlines may be misleading. We see opportunity.
Quality and Growth: Striking a Balance
When the economy is picking up steam, growth stocks offer the potential to capture market gains. But hallmarks of quality—including sustained earnings growth and sound underlying fundamentals—may help weather economic headwinds.
Office Space: Looking Past the Doom and Gloom
Will Americans return to the office? It may depend on where it is and what it offers.
A New Frontier for Equity Investors: The Middle East Transformation
Investors in emerging-market equities haven’t typically paid much attention to the Middle East. It’s time to take a closer look.
Trade Wars and Tariffs Test Equity Investing Research
How can global equity investors incorporate the impact of tariffs into fundamental analysis of companies?
How to Capture AI Innovation in a Risk-Aware Equity Portfolio
Technological disruption creates opportunity—and volatility. But there are ways to capture AI innovation while managing risk.
Asset-Based Finance: Private Credit’s Key Diversifier
Private capital is increasingly being used to finance consumer spending.
How Should DC Plans Deliver Lifetime Income to Typical Participants?
Steady income and access to remaining assets are key considerations for DC plan sponsors.
Healthcare Stocks: Testing the Vital Signs of Managed Care Providers
Questions are being asked about the US managed care industry, but some businesses are equipped to rise to the challenge.
Update on Fiscal Policy—the “Other” Policy to Watch
Investors have seemed transfixed lately by endless news headlines on the path of monetary policy. But fiscal policy outcomes have far-reaching impacts on long-run growth and fundamentals in the world’s economies. On that score, many regions continue to wrestle with the challenges of deficits and debt.
Resilient US Housing Market Defies Lofty Rates
US housing has weathered surging mortgage rates. Thin inventory and pent-up demand could create opportunity.
Capital Markets Outlook: 2Q 2024
We think the intersection of hope and fear offers opportunity across asset classes and market segments. Tapping into it, however, requires in-depth research and a discerning eye. Waiting for a clarion bell to ring before deploying capital might leave investors a step behind.
Actively Managing the Fed: How to Fix Your Fixed Income
Register now to hear from AllianceBernstein’s fixed income experts, who will tackle those questions and more.
What’s Up With Short-Maturity High-Yield Bonds? Yield.
It makes sense that longer-maturity bonds typically provide higher yields than shorter-term bonds. After all, more bad things can happen in a longer period than a shorter one, and visibility is poorer for the next 10 years than for tomorrow. Investors expect to be paid for these risks.
Opportunity Knocks: The Case for Emerging-Market Corporates
Emerging-market (EM) corporate bonds are too-often overlooked by investors who presume the asset class is too niche or too risky. But the aggregate fundamentals of EM corporates are stronger than those of their developed-market counterparts.
Decisive Factors: Understanding the Drivers of Equity Returns
Stocks have been buoyant this year, but market conditions are still in flux. Looking at equity factors can help investors make informed judgments about how allocations are prepared for different scenarios.
Reading the Room: Harnessing AI to Uncover Equity Investing Clues
If investors are detectives seeking clues for outperformance in the US large-cap equity market, natural language processing is a team of tireless assistants.
Do You Have Questions About CRTs? We Have Answers.
We demystify the credit risk transfer securities market.
US Economic Growth Up, Fed Rate Cuts Coming Later
Stronger economic growth is allowing the Fed to stay patient. That means a likely delayed start for expected interest-rate cuts.
Inflation Progress May Be Bumpy, But Is Likely to Continue
Inflation, one of many inputs to multi-asset decision-making, cooled substantially last year, but upside surprises in early 2024 for the US and Europe have many investors concerned that the path back to normal has hit a roadblock.
AI-Driven Spending Boom Is No Dot-Com Bust for Investors
Today’s technology boom is being driven by real efficiency gains, which is why we think comparisons with the dot-com bubble are misguided.
Painting a Fuller Picture: A Framework for Comparing Lifetime Income Solutions
It can be a tall task to compare diverse lifetime income solutions. Applying a comprehensive framework may enable a level playing field.
Are the Stars Finally Aligned for US Financial Stocks?
Market and industry trends are shining on US financial stocks, whose fortunes might be changing for the better across diverse sub-industries.
Tesla’s Troubles Signal a Speedbump for Investors in the EV Story
Competition for electric vehicles is mounting, but demand persists. So how can equity investors capture the potential of the fast-changing industry?
Responsible Investing: Four Themes to Follow in 2024
From biodiversity and blended finance to a just transition and the cost of drugs, we preview the key ESG issues we’re targeting through research.
Global Macro Outlook: Second Quarter 2024
An economic soft landing in 2024 remains our base case. Inflation continues to cool, which we think will prompt central banks to follow through on rate cuts by late in the second quarter. Meanwhile, political and policy risks could rise, as over half the world holds key elections in the coming months.
Why Investors Need Inflation Protection Now
Investors have been selling inflation protection in the mistaken belief that it’s no longer needed. They’ve helped create a unique opportunity.
Equity Outlook: Earnings Step Back into the Market Spotlight
Too many companies with solid earnings growth haven’t been rewarded in narrow equity markets. That may be about to change.
Fixed-Income Outlook: Don’t Miss the Forest for the Trees
Bond investors who are overly focused on individual data points may lose sight of the bigger opportunity picture.
How Does Global “Friend-Shoring” Affect Chinese Manufacturers?
Geopolitical tensions in recent years have prompted companies to reconfigure their supply chains, with US firms increasingly moving production outside of China.
Ahead of the Fed: Don’t Delay Return to the Muni Market
Many investors seem content to sit in cash. But with the market pricing in rate cuts by July, we think it’s time for muni investors to jump back in now. Here’s why.
AB Disruptor Series: The US Banking Transition Accelerates
But a bigger story has been afoot: the incredible shrinking US bank sector. Its numbers, which have withered for decades, are the lowest in over a century. The current environment should accelerate that decline, raising multi-trillion-dollar questions: Why? What does it mean for consumers and investors?
Finding Pockets of Growth in Europe’s Overlooked Equity Market
Attractive growth companies are scattered across Europe’s otherwise lackluster market landscape. Here’s how to find them.
Taking Flight: The Opportunity in Aircraft Financing
Investments in aircraft can offer steady cash flow and a return profile that’s uncorrelated to broad market indices.
Governance Matters: The Proof Is in the Proxy
Our research shows a correlation between strong governance and higher stock returns.
Could ECB Rate Cuts Beat the Fed to the Punch?
Although markets expect both the Fed and the ECB to cut rates in June, macro developments could change that forecast.
Investing with Impact: How Municipal Bonds Are Leading the Way
Issues like water scarcity are felt most intensely at the local level. That makes it incumbent on municipal bond issuers to lead the response.
Designing Multi-Asset Income: It’s Complementary
Multi-asset income strategies are becoming more popular, but some may bake in more risk than expected. The key is designing complementary exposures.
European Sovereign Debt: Is the Periphery a Problem?
Sovereign debt levels soared during the pandemic, and countries at the eurozone’s periphery may look high risk. But appearances can be deceptive.
Are Healthcare Stocks a Risky Prescription in a US Election Year?
Despite conventional wisdom, political uncertainty doesn’t necessarily pose acute risks to the healthcare sector.
Keeping an Eye on Liquidity as Risks Converge
The Fed’s close monitoring and well-signaled tapering of QT should prevent disruptions to the short-term funding markets—despite converging risks.
Apples and Oranges: Understanding Lifetime Income Options
Secure lifetime income is a top wish-list item for defined contribution plan participants, and it has benefits for plan sponsors too. But there are very different ways to deliver it.
Climate-Focused Investing Two Approaches for Equity Portfolios
There's been a lot of focus, especially in the media, around things like renewable energy and electric vehicles. But if you think about the challenge of reducing emissions, we're going to have to do that across a diverse set of solutions, including things like heating and cooling, manufacturing, infrastructure, agriculture.
Finding Hidden Value in the Future of Global Security
Companies supporting efforts to create a more secure and stable world could provide equity investors with an attractive source of long-term returns.
Concentrating on Earnings Perspectives on Profit for Equity Investors
Earnings haven’t been consistently rewarded in equity markets recently. That could change faster than you think.
Breaking the ESG Barrier Empowering Credit Investors Through Better and Faster Data
A new approach to environmental, social and governance (ESG) research could ease investors’ frustrations with sourcing and evaluating the data required for objective credit analysis. Thanks to a surge in company reporting, ESG metrics can now be quantified and incorporated into analyses that were historically rooted in fundamental research alone.
European Bonds: Will Cash Stay King as Rates Reverse?
Investors who stay too long in cash may find they’ve missed out.
Nurturing Nature: Why Investors Should Care About Biodiversity
Investors face an urgent challenge in understanding, analyzing and managing biodiversity risks.
The Fed’s Rate Message Makes the Sidelines Risky
The Fed poured cold water on a March rate cut, but the underlying message still has rates coming down—by a lot. Waiting for the starting point can be risky for investors.
Rethinking Three Misconceptions About Emerging-Market Equities
Emerging-market equities have a bad rap. But a lost decade may have set up promising conditions for a recovery.
Could Falling US Rates Elevate Emerging-Market Returns?
Emerging-market (EM) assets were resilient in 2023, gaining ground despite conflict in the Middle East, concerns over slowing economic growth in China, and the US dollar’s strength against other regional currencies. Now, with the Fed signaling rate cuts in 2024, the news could get better.
Is the “Vibe-cession” for US Consumers on Its Way Out?
Falling inflation hasn’t yet translated into good feelings among US consumers. Based on the latest data, that might be changing.
It’s Time to Say Goodbye to ‘T-Bill and Chill’
Investors who wait too long to get off the sidelines may find they’ve missed out.
Downs and Ups: Managing Equity Volatility Goes Both Ways
Defensive equity strategies that limit downside losses but lag too much in up-markets may be missing the mark. Is there another way to reduce volatility?
China’s Struggling Economy Masks a Promising Investing Landscape
Investor sentiment toward China has soured after a tough year for the economy and stock market. But the painful economic transition is also creating real opportunity.
Multi-Asset Investing in a Post-Peak Rate Climate
Rate cuts don’t happen in a vacuum—staying nimble with asset allocation can help investors adapt.
Muni Investors, Take Heed of Fed Pause
Still doing “T-bill and chill”? As a strategy, rolling Treasury bills may have worked well so far this year, but history suggests it’s time for municipal bond investors to get off the sidelines and back into the market—and soon.
The Weather Is Changing for Climate-Focused Investors
As equity investors hunt for opportunities, why should they consider climate-focused investing?
ESG Opportunities: Emerging Markets and Biodiversity
AB’s Chief Responsibility Officer previews areas of research focus for our Responsible Investing teams in 2024.
Private Credit Outlook: Evolution and Opportunity
Private credit has in a little more than a decade evolved from a niche asset class to a key component of a diversified investment portfolio. We think it will be even more important in 2024 as banks’ reluctance to lend widens the opportunity set for investors.
Investment Strategies for Generating Efficient Income
Bond yields are up—that’s good news for income investors, but secular forces still pose headwinds for inflation-adjusted returns. We think an efficient way to generate income is by carefully assembling mixes of interest-rate and credit building blocks—and incorporating private-market exposure for additional diversification and return potential.
Equity Outlook: Three Questions for Investors in 2024
It’s hard to chart a course through equity markets in times of uncertainty. Here are our thoughts on some of the big questions on investors’ minds today.
Equity Investing in 2024: How to Position in a World of Uncertainty
So it was a very strong year for broad equity benchmarks around the world, but it perhaps didn't feel like a great year for many investors. There's economic uncertainty for sure.
Fixed-Income Outlook 2024: Bonds Roar Back
The tide has turned for bonds. Here’s what we think is in store for 2024.
Market Concentration in Magnificent Seven Distorts Index Exposures
US equity market returns have been disproportionately driven by the so-called Magnificent Seven (Mag 7) stocks this year. Their dominance has created style imbalances within large-cap benchmarks that deserve closer attention from investors.
Reflections on COP28: Opportunities Amid Challenges
Investors are warming to opportunities stemming from climate change, and other takeaways from COP28.
Multi-Asset Income Investing in a 2024 Slowdown
For multi-asset income investors, adapting portfolios for equity defense, credit potential and duration exposure should be on the docket for 2024.
DC Plan Participants Want Lifetime Income…but Need Help
A secure lifetime income solution can seamlessly continue the “do it for me” structure that has helped DC plan participants save in their working years.
When Disaster Strikes: Gauging the Investment Risk of Natural Hazards
Investors need to understand the potential physical damage from natural hazards before they can assess their financial implications.
Can AI Hallucinations Be Tamed for Investing Models?
Generative artificial intelligence has a reliability problem. Here’s how investors can gain confidence in portfolios that deploy the technology.
Labor Squeeze: Auto and Airline Deals Drive US Margin Challenges
Recent labor agreements in the auto and airline industries spotlight the profitability conundrum facing US companies—and equity investors.
Is Equity Risk Worth the Reward in a World of Higher Bond Yields?
Equities have an important role to play in a diversified allocation today, to help hedge against inflation and to navigate a lower-growth environment.
Multi-Asset Investing: Tracing the Growth Impact of US Fiscal Policies
A robust growth backdrop, a key input for cross-asset positioning, benefited from pent-up demand and an accommodative fiscal policy stance.
AI Heralds a Technology Paradigm Shift—But Not So Fast
Technological turning points in the past have taught important lessons about how to identify long-term winners from transformative innovation.
A Changing World: The New Psychological Workplace Contract
A new psychological contract is transforming the modern workplace, highlighted by an increase in collective actions and changing employee expectations.
Taking the Temperature of Healthcare Stocks
Healthcare stocks have underperformed the global market this year. But taking a closer look under the sector’s hood reveals a more complex picture. In key industries, earnings growth forecasts are healthy and valuations look attractive.
Muni Investors, Take Heed of Fed Pause
Still doing “T-bill and chill”? As a strategy, rolling Treasury bills may have worked well so far this year, but history suggests it’s time for municipal bond investors to get off the sidelines and back into the market—and soon.
Six Metrics Light the Path to Sustainability for Emerging-Market Sovereigns
Just six metrics can effectively assess sovereign issuers’ sustainability and provide guidance for both issuers and investors.
Investing Lessons from Climate School, Class of 2023
We’ve always intended for the unique collaboration between AllianceBernstein (AB) and Columbia University to serve the broader asset-management industry. Asset owners and managers alike are eager to explore the complex issues of climate change and its potential effect on investments and investment decision-making.
US Equities: Which Stocks Have Outperformed in a Weaker Market?
Weakness in US equity markets since July reflects ongoing uncertainty about the macroeconomic outlook. Despite the concerns, stocks with quality and defensive features have performed relatively well and could help portfolios surmount shaky conditions ahead.
4Q: 2023 Capital Markets Outlook
Following a strong first half of 2023, third-quarter returns were more challenged across almost all asset classes. One outlier was high-yield debt, which often serves as a way to de-risk equity exposures when stocks are under pressure.
Thoughts from the Digital Fixed-Income Evolution
The data science wave is here, and bond managers must adapt traditional investment processes to harness new technologies and amplify human talent.
Diversity of Thought A New Approach to Equity Alpha
The world is becoming an increasingly diverse place, especially the societies that we live in and we invest in. It’s not just about social equity that companies need to focus on diversity, equity, and inclusion; it’s really about business fundamentals.
Cashing Out: Getting Clients off the Sidelines
Bonds may be back, but many clients are still sitting on piles of cash and CDs. What’s not well known is that returns for money markets and CDs could decline precipitously if—or when—the Fed cuts rates. To help clients think ahead, it’s time to start repositioning portfolios to help adhere to the old adage of “buy low and sell high.”
Register now to hear where AB’s fixed-income portfolio managers are finding compelling opportunities.
Pain Reliever: The Behavioral Case for Defensive Equities
Human behavior can lead to irrational investment decisions, but a well-planned low-volatility strategy may be the antidote.
Investment-Grade Corporates: A Tale of Two Markets
Investors are accustomed to getting a snapshot of the market by looking at the latest index statistics. But today, average spreads and yields for investment-grade corporate bonds are deceptive. A look under the hood reveals that intermediate-maturity corporates are a much more compelling opportunity than long-maturity ones.
Opportunity Knocks: Investing in Dislocation
Tight lending standards and rising yields, along with concern about an approaching turn in the business cycle, have put opportunistic credit in the spotlight. But what, exactly, does opportunistic credit mean? Here’s how we look at it—and what we think it may offer investors.
The View from Muniland: Once in a Generation
It feels like Groundhog Day, with yet another challenging quarter for muni investors. The index was down about 4%, bringing year-to-date returns to –1.4% for the year. So what happened in August and September?
Healthcare Investing Finding Growth Beyond Pharmaceuticals
Drugmakers don’t have to dominate a healthcare portfolio. Equity investors should cast a wide net across the sector to find innovation and growth.
Harnessing the Inverted Municipal Yield Curve
The muni yield curve has been inverted before, but not for any meaningful length of time—until now. With yields on short-term muni bonds still significantly higher than those on intermediate-term munis, what’s an investor to do?
Seeking Balance in Sustainable Multi-Asset Investing
A multi-asset approach to sustainable investing brings a broad and more balanced palette to paint with.
Private Credit Outlook: Room to Run
Slower growth and rising interest rates have tapped the brakes on private deal activity this year. But as banks continue to retreat from lending, we see plenty of opportunity for investors to pick their spots across the broad private credit universe.
Finding Balance in US Equities as Macro Threats Mount
In a market burdened by uncertainties, a flexible approach can help equity investors strike the right balance between short-term risks and long-term opportunities.
How to Invest in Stocks for the Next Phase of China’s Evolution
In an era of new economic challenges, we expect value investing to trump growth-oriented strategies for investors in Chinese equities.
Fixed-Income Outlook: The View from Higher Elevations
Good news for bond investors: yields are likely to stay higher for longer. We share strategies for making the most of this environment.
How Muni Impact Investors Can Help Issuers Ace Their ESG Tests
The degree of success of muni impact bonds often stems from showing issuers how they’ll be graded.
China’s Growth Is Slowing: What Does it Mean?
China’s growth has slowed, but the context is important—an intentional transition to a more balanced economy that relies less on investment and exports.
Healthcare Stocks Invest in Business, not Science
Even the best scientists in the world cannot reliably forecast drug-test results, so why should investors gamble? Quality businesses are key for healthcare stocks.
Offense or Defense? Direct Lending Can Play Both
A balanced portfolio needs assets with strong return potential and those that may provide downside mitigation. We believe direct lending can deliver both—a potentially valuable feature, particularly in today’s uncertain market.
Barbie, Beyoncé, Taylor Swift and the Economic Outlook
Now, is it an oversimplification to say that the upgrade to GDP growth is just down to Taylor Swift and Beyoncé? It is, to a degree, no matter how popular they are—and they are very popular indeed.
Why Global Bonds Make Sense for US Investors
Although US bond yields are well above their lows of the past decade, it’s always a good idea to think globally.
Inflation Is Coming Down. Will Treasury Yields Be Next?
The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed steadily over the past two years. But we believe fixed-income investors should be prepared for lower yields ahead.
Tree Spotting: Detecting Deforestation Risks One Company at a Time
From the dense Amazon jungle to wide stretches of Malaysian palm oil plantations, agricultural practices have been stripping the world of vital forests for decades.
What Is It About the US Consumer?
Resilient consumer spending has been a pillar of the US economy. While activity may soften, we think the consumer will help the coming slowdown stay mild.
How Can Companies Turn AI Promise into Profits?
Equity investors should look beyond the hype for companies with clear strategies to profitably monetize the benefits of generative AI.
Systematic Fixed Income: A Breakthrough in Bond Investing
Bond investors have been looking for an approach that delivers attractive, repeatable, uncorrelated active returns. Is their wait over?
Investors Beware—Earnings Forecasts Omit Stock Compensation
Adjusted earnings forecasts tend to overshadow reported earnings and add uncertainty to corporate outlooks.
US Housing: As Rates Rise, Homeowners and Prices Stay Put
Despite softening demand, US home prices remain elevated. The culprits are high interest rates, limited supply and owners' reluctance to take on new mortgages.
Energy Addiction: AI's Next Big Challenge
Investors should take a closer look at companies that help create a more energy-efficient ecosystem for AI.
Financing a Sustainable World: Global Banks Take Center Stage
Progress toward a sustainable world would be hamstrung without the backing of global banks and their sponsorship of green and sustainable bonds.
Navigating Generative AI? Consider a Framework
AI development is racing ahead. A thoughtful framework to making decisions and leveraging tools can help investors stay on course.
Broader Horizons? More Stocks Help Fuel US Market Gains
Ten stocks have dominated US equity market gains for most of this year. But the rest of the market may be waking up. That’s good news for active managers who seek to tap diversified sources of long-term returns that can withstand challenging macroeconomic conditions.
Multi-Asset Trends to Watch
With the second half of 2023 underway, how are the macro and market landscapes unfolding?
The Two Speeds of the US Economy
Recession? Soft Landing? Getting a read on where the US economy is headed hasn’t been easy.
Office Exodus: Can US Cities Survive?
Flagging office occupancy rates have municipal bond investors concerned. But US cities have more than one card to play in the revenue game.
Under Pressure? High Yield Can Hold Up (Your Income Portfolio)
Do high-yield bonds still make sense for income investors at this stage of the credit cycle? We think so.
Will Sweden’s Woes Shake Europe’s Real Estate Markets?
Investors are taking fright at commercial real estate risks in Sweden. But we think the situation is less threatening than feared.
Why ESG Investors Should Look Beyond the Obvious Choices
Companies that are on course to overcome ESG controversies deserve closer attention from investors.
Multi-Asset Income Opportunities with an Inverted Yield Curve
In any environment, multi-asset investors should prudently balance risks across equity, corporate credit and government bonds. But near-term tactical shifts can help take advantage of ever-evolving market conditions in the pursuit of long-term returns.
Capital Markets Outlook: 3Q 2023
Markets posted a strong first quarter, though it was a rollercoaster ride. The path forward will likely stay turbulent, with bank turmoil likely tightening credit conditions and the Fed still wrestling with inflation.
2023 Multi-Asset Midyear Outlook: Rounding the Corner
Over the past 18 months, high inflation drove rapid monetary policy tightening, which weighed heavily on consumer spending power and corporate margins. As inflationary pressures now abate, we see eventual improvement in both real incomes and profits, which should enhance prospects for multi-asset investors.
How to Prepare for Market Volatility Before It Strikes Again
When markets are rising, investors don’t always prepare for turbulence. Yet we think the best time to build a defensive plan for an equity allocation is before volatility strikes.
The Case for Corporate Credit
Solid fundamentals, decent valuations, and attractive income potential make a case for continued exposure to corporate credit even in an uncertain economic environment.
From the Ground Up Sowing the Seeds of Biodiversity Investment
Biodiversity is taking on increasing importance as a consumer concern, but it isn’t always top of mind for investors. We think that could soon change. Beyond the obvious environmental benefits, there’s an economic case to be made for protecting biodiversity.
ESG-Labeled Bonds: Are Greeniums Doomed to Dwindle?
Investors in ESG-labeled bonds expect well-structured issues with strong green or social credentials to command higher prices than the same issuer’s conventional bonds.
Do Financials Have a Role in Sustainable Equity Portfolios?
Financial companies that help address some of the world’s most pressing socioeconomic challenges deserve attention from sustainability-focused investors.
Nasdaq Rebalance Spotlights Risks from Supersized Set of Stocks
Even benchmark-makers are starting to address the supersized influence of heavyweight stocks. Nasdaq’s plan to reconfigure the weights of its constituents should prompt investors to think about the broader concentration risks in US equity markets, particularly in passive portfolios.
Midyear Outlook: Three Income Themes for Multi-Asset Investors
An improved income outlook for multi-asset investors, including higher yields, sharply contrasts with cloudy conditions at 2023’s start.
Municipal Midyear Outlook: Come on In, the Water’s Fine
With the highest yields in years, the muni bond market looks increasingly attractive.
AI Alone Won’t Magically Unlock Earnings Power
Artificial intelligence has quickly become a hot topic around dinner tables and in corporate boardrooms. But delivering business benefits from AI will take time. Investors should proceed with caution.
Investing Beyond the Headlines 3Q 2023 Equity Outlook
Global equity markets have had a very strong first half of the year, but it’s a pretty unusual time because, on the one hand, equities are contending with a pretty difficult macro backdrop.
Emerging Markets from the Asset Allocator’s View
We’re tactically cautious on developed-market equities with a broadly risk-off stance, but we have a relative preference for emerging-market (EM) stocks over a 6- to 12-month horizon.
Global Macro Outlook - Third Quarter 2023
Steadfast global resilience to recession highlighted the quarter, although the outlook hasn’t necessarily improved. But with labor markets tight and wages keeping pace with inflation, consumers are navigating the economy’s rough patches. Still, we expect growth to slow in time.
Don’t Look Back The Next Emerging-Market Decade Will Be Different
For over a decade, emerging markets (EMs) have been full of promise—and disappointment. Year after year, investors have waited for the powerful growth trends of the past that drove developing markets from Mexico to Malaysia to reassert themselves.
Fixed-Income Midyear Outlook: Surfing Lessons
Surf’s up! Elevated yields and negative correlations are good news for bond investors. We share strategies for making the most of today’s opportunities.
Equity Outlook: AI Stars Eclipse Broader Earnings Resilience
Excitement over AI has driven equities this year. Yet investors should maintain a disciplined, long-term focus amid uncertain market conditions.
Higher for Longer: Getting Comfortable with the New Policy Regime
Central banks in the developed world have raised interest rates higher and faster than at any time in recent memory. But until labor markets start to slow, policymakers are unlikely to take their feet off the brakes.
How Insurance Investors Can Adapt to a Low Liquidity World
Lower bond-market liquidity and insurance investors’ unique needs raise the stakes for liquidity management in what’s likely to be a volatile environment.
Return to Normal? Surveying the Landscape for Emerging-Market Bonds
After the disruptions of the past few years, many of us are looking for a return to normal. For investors in emerging-market bonds, normal would mean a world in which global inflation is in check, interest rates are no longer rising, China is healthy, and traditional asset correlations resume.
Keeping Your Balance as the Credit Cycle Turns
Striking the right balance between interest rate and credit risk can be a good idea in the late stages of a credit cycle. We think it’s a particularly good idea in this credit cycle.
Will the Emerging Markets’ Financial Sector Trigger a New Crisis?
Naturally, the recent banking crises in the US and Europe raise concerns about EM exposure to financial sector risks too. We’ve found that the EM financial sector overall looks strong and resilient—but that several individual EM countries’ banks could be vulnerable.
Help Wanted: Why Smart Companies Recruit for Diversity
Recruiting talent is a basic ingredient for business success. Companies that are more inclusive in their recruiting will discover better-qualified employees, which can bolster competitive advantages and help deliver better outcomes for investors.
Sustainability-Linked Bonds: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
Corporate bonds that fund environmental, social and governance (ESG) initiatives continue to capture investor hearts and minds. But ESG-labeled bonds come in different stripes, so investors need to discern among the good, the bad and the occasional ugly ones merely posing as ESG bonds.
Will AI Transform the Healthcare Industry for Investors?
Healthcare companies are beginning to explore how artificial intelligence (AI) might unlock efficiencies for patients and medical systems. But to transform science fiction into reality, AI applications in the sector must prove that they can improve business profitability to deliver returns for investors.
Are Clients Getting Paid to Wait? Why Sitting in Cash is Risky
According to the ICI, assets in money markets have ballooned to $5.3 trillion—the equivalent of the world’s 5th largest economy. And with so much cash sitting on the sidelines, a fundamental question persists. Are investors being compensated to wait? Find out why sitting in cash could be a risky proposition as inflation and economic growth show signs of slowing.
Don’t miss an in-depth conversation with fixed income experts from VettaFi and AllianceBernstein, who will share insights on how to position portfolios amid a challenging market environment.
Topics will include:
- Is the battle with inflation over and what is the likely path of Fed policy going forward?
- Is the most televised recession in recent history likely to happen?
- How do you maximize return while mitigating risk in your client’s portfolios?
Home Bias Could Be Costly for US Equity Investors
When it comes to their equity portfolios, US investors have historically exhibited a high degree of home-country bias. But in today’s fast-changing global market landscape, they may find that there are good reasons to rethink regional allocations to stocks.
How the Yen Drives Japan's Monetary Policy
If price stability is the legal mandate of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), and the central bank’s official target for price stability is 2%, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI),* then why are fluctuations in prices the norm for Japan?
What Comes After the Debt Ceiling Debacle? Opportunity.
The standoff between the White House and Congress over raising the US debt ceiling has been the talk of the town for months. Now that the government has reached an agreement, savvy investors will be on the hunt for opportunities—and we think there will be some attractive ones.
Learnings from Earnings: Macro Crosscurrents Make Growth Elusive
Here’s what we learned in earnings season about how companies are coping with a particularly tricky set of macroeconomic conditions.
Taking a Time Out? The High Price of Idle Cash
Parking your fixed-income assets in cash may seem like a safe choice in today’s volatile investing environment, but it’s actually a risky proposition. Here are three reasons why sitting on the sidelines can be a dangerous game.
Connecting the Disinflation Dots in Multi-Asset Strategies
The Federal Reserve’s latest 0.25% interest-rate hike has likely capped one of its most aggressive policy-tightening cycles in 40 years. And the cumulative 5% policy rate increase in just over a year is now starting to have an effect on rate-sensitive sectors and inflation.
Will California's Budget Woes Have a Hollywood Ending?
Muni investors have more reasons for optimism than concern as California tackles a projected $31.5 billion budget deficit.
Five Reasons to Invest in High-Yield Bonds Today
As the US economy begins to feel the weight of the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes, investors have grown leery of US high-yield corporate bonds. On the surface, that makes sense. Historically, credit conditions soured when growth slowed.
Homing in on Quality in Climate Investing Strategies
Stock selection in a climate investing strategy takes more than just avoiding companies exposed to global warming risks. The process should intersect with an active search for diverse opportunities among companies helping to fight climate change, but with high-quality business models, too.
Like 10,000 Interns: How ChatGPT Can Liberate Investment Analysts
ChatGPT is generating excitement about the power of artificial intelligence (AI) to reshape the business. For investment firms, AI can help execute many menial functions to free up analysts for deeper research dives, armed with more information than they could ever process alone.
The Fed and ECB Go Their Own Ways with Interest Rates…for Now
The big picture is that this week’s adjacent decisions by two major central banks point to a near-term divergence in policy paths between the US and Europe: the Fed is on hold and the ECB is still raising rates.
Don’t Bank on Bank Loans in 2023
Floating-rate bank loans tend to do well when conditions are just right: the Federal Reserve is raising rates and the economy is growing. But such conditions typically don’t last long.
Capital Markets Outlook: 2Q 2023
Markets posted a strong first quarter, though it was a rollercoaster ride. The path forward will likely stay turbulent, with bank turmoil likely tightening credit conditions and the Fed still wrestling with inflation.
US Commercial Real Estate Outlook: Seeking Calmer Waters in Quality
The pandemic hurt small retailers by hastening the transition to digital commerce and emptied office buildings by turning living rooms into workspace. But it also fueled a warehouse building boom and unleashed a torrent of pent-up travel-and-leisure spending when economies reopened, underscoring the diversity of commercial real estate.
Why Your Grandmother Was Right
My grandmother always had something witty or wise to share. One of her favorites had me imagining vivid pictures of pounds of medicine in bottles and spoonfuls of colorful liquids.
India’s New Look: Paving Roads to Efficiency and Investment
India’s ability to attract foreign investment has long been hampered by subpar infrastructure and excessive bureaucracy. But reputations can obscure real change.
Is Europe Facing Another Banking Crisis?
Investors in European bank shares have been rattled by recent turmoil in the sector. But many banks are in much better shape than widely perceived, and the sector is subject to much tighter regulation than in the US.
Compelling AMT Muni Bond Yields: Hiding in Plain Sight?
For years, investors seeking tax-efficient income grappled with a key question: Are municipal bonds that are subject to the alternative minimum tax (AMT) worth their higher yields? After all, an attractive bond yield didn’t hold as much luster once the AMT shaved off up to 28%.
The Picture Brightens for Government Bonds as Multi-Asset Diversifiers
The lack of diversification benefits of government bonds in 2022 was painful for multi-asset investors. The sell-off in US Treasuries in particular was sharp, and we saw correlations versus stocks move well into positive territory.
Dividend Investing: Broader Is Better for Multi-Asset Strategies
We think dividend-income strategies can be effective across multiple environments, provided that they’re designed to tap into a wider opportunity set beyond traditional dividend payers alone.
Equity Outlook: Banks Deliver Message on Hidden Rate Risks
Global equities were volatile in the first quarter, as turmoil in the banking sector jolted markets.
From Anomaly to Opportunity: High Yields on Short Bonds
Stock and bond markets were shaken by the recent banking crisis in the US and Europe.
With Banks in Focus, the Fed Signals (Cautious) Optimism
Yesterday, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate 25 basis points to a 4.75%–5.0% range and signaled that one more hike is likely this cycle.
Taming Biases in High-Dividend Equity Strategies
Income-seeking investors are accustomed to casting wide nets after years of low yields.
China’s Green Enablers Deserve a Place in Equity Funds
Investors focusing on climate change often overlook Chinese firms.
Are Cheap Burgers in Emerging Markets a Good Sign for Investors?
Investors in emerging markets (EM) have endured a decade of poor performance. But things may be changing. Based on The Economist magazine’s data comparing hamburger prices across countries, many EM currencies look cheap today—as they did 20 years ago before an extended rally of EM stocks and bonds.
Why Rising US Rates Don’t Have to "Break" the System
Over the past few decades, investors have become conditioned to expect that rising interest rates will trigger broader US financial market crises.
AI Chatbots Rewrite Code for Technology Sector’s Future
ChatGPT has ignited the world’s imagination about the power of artificial intelligence (AI).
Want to Know How Advisors Are Sabotaging Themselves?
As the financial services industry has evolved away from transactions and toward financial planning, an interesting shift has happened: more couples have started showing up in advisors’ offices to discuss their investments and their financial plan.
Activating Equity Portfolios for Higher Rates and Inflation
Passive equity investing has retained its dominance and outflows from active portfolios have continued amid the market and macro shocks of the past year.
The Outlook for Income: Balancing Rates and Credit in 2023
When we think about generating income for our clients, for over 30 years we’ve thought the most efficient way to do this is to blend the two key risks of fixed income into one portfolio.
European Fixed-Income Outlook: Stay High Quality in 2023
European bond-market performance was among the worst on record in 2022, as Europe ran the gamut of geopolitical, economic and market storms.
Global Macro Outlook - First Quarter 2023
After a year defined by inflation and the policy response to it, we expect 2023 to be a year of transition.
Are Small-Cap Stocks Further Along the Road to Recovery
Small-cap companies are usually the most vulnerable to volatility, with their stock prices and earnings getting hit particularly hard and early in economic downturns, much like what occurred in 2022. Yet they also tend to lead the way on both fronts during recoveries.
Carbon Handprint: It's What Firms Don't Do That Counts
As global warming worries approach critical mass, corporate bond investors expect issuers to be part of the solution.
Can European Credit Ride Out the Storm?
As Europe struggles with war, costly energy, record inflation and slowing growth, it’s no surprise that European corporate credit is out of favor.
Global Stocks: Look Beyond Home Base to Find Growth
In this year’s global economic crisis, no two regions are having identical experiences. While inflation rages across much of the world, price rises have been more moderate in some countries than others. Similarly, the scale of rate hikes and the degree of recession fears aren’t uniform.
What's Behind the Drop in Treasury Market Liquidity?
With the year winding down, investors might think they’ve seen it all. But one element of market dysfunction that’s largely flown under the radar is increased friction within the US Treasury market. Treasuries are experiencing a liquidity decline on the back of economic uncertainty and higher volatility, with large blocks of government debt increasingly hard to trade.
Three Income Themes for Multi-Asset Investors in 2023
In one of the most challenging years for markets, 2022 brought persistently high inflation, aggressive central bank tightening and heightened geopolitical risks, leaving investors with few places to hide.
10 Reasons to Stay Invested in Equities
Equity investors have sustained significant losses this year and are facing a long list of new uncertainties.
Rates and Stocks: How Low Can Valuations Go?
Equity valuations have fallen substantially as central banks hike interest rates to combat inflation.
Drug Innovation Can Surmount New US Law's Price Caps
The cost of prescription medicine is a constant strain for many Americans.
Market Collapse Raises Stakes for Active Equity Investors
Equity investors are trying to figure out whether steep share-price declines have led to attractive valuations, given mounting threats to fundamental business performance. The answer varies from company to company and requires an active equity investing approach to separate winners from losers.
Can the Sell-Off in Sterling Corporate Bonds Last?
UK government bonds prices have plunged recently. Sterling-denominated corporate bonds have also fallen sharply and are looking cheap.
Can China Revive Economic Growth Post-Congress?
China's 20th National Congress could help air ideas for more growth-supportive policies.
Capital Markets Outlook: 4Q 2022
The difficult capital markets saga of 2022 continued through the third quarter with few safe harbors as rates rose and growth slowed.
Fixed-Income Outlook: Stormy Weather and Silver Linings
2022 has been a stormy year for bond investors, and the forecast calls for more of the same. We address today’s biggest investment challenges—from persistent inflation to rising rates to a looming recession—the silver linings of higher yields, wider credit spreads, and strategies for navigating bad weather.
Equity Income: The Dividend Defense Against Inflation
Many investors are searching for assets that can help protect portfolios from inflation.
Equity Outlook: Charting a Course Beyond Uncertainty
Equity market volatility persisted in the third quarter as investors came to terms with a new reality of high inflation and rising interest rates.
Growth Stock Rout Resets Valuation Landscape
It’s been a tough year for investors, particularly in growth stocks.
Fourth Quarter 2022
Inflation remains persistently high, dominating everything else in the macro outlook.
Tackling the Income Problem
While 2022 has been a challenging year for nearly every segment of the capital markets, it comes with a silver lining for income investors: higher yields.
US Housing Outlook: Rates and Supply in Tug of War
With interest rates on the rise, the once red-hot US housing market is finally showing signs of cooling.
Rates and Supply in Tug of War
With interest rates on the rise, the once red-hot US housing market is finally showing signs of cooling.
Finding Stocks with Staying Power
In a time of uncertainty, we believe that quality is the key to investing in equities.
The Future of Energy
Energy prices have been on a rollercoaster ride the past few years, and the invasion of Ukraine upended the entire supply/demand framework. The path ahead for energy—and related investment opportunities—will be defined by how today’s “power problems” are resolved. Listen to the latest from the AB Disruptor Series Podcast as Rick Brink, our Chief Market Strategist, and a panel of energy experts zero in on critical issues in the energy story.
Europe's Policymakers Grapple with Soaring Natural Gas Prices
As surging natural gas prices stoke inflation throughout Europe, policymakers are responding to both reduce the economic damage of high energy prices and clamp down on blistering inflation rates.
AB Disruptor Series: The Future of Energy
Energy prices have been on a rollercoaster ride the past few years, and the invasion of Ukraine upended the entire supply/demand framework. The path ahead for energy—and related investment opportunities—will be defined by how today’s “power problems” are resolved.
China’s State-Owned Enterprises Hold Keys to Carbon Neutrality
China has pledged to reach carbon neutrality by 2060, and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are responsible for half the country’s CO2 emissions.
Turning Less into More: Revisiting Equity Risk in a Volatile Year
During this period of economic uncertainty and market stress, investors may be surprised to discover how a strategy targeting stocks that lose less in a downturn can beat the market over time.
Three Reasons Why Investors Need to Source Income Efficiently
Investors naturally gravitate toward higher-income segments as a way to boost traditional core bond yields.
What’s Next for the Bank of Japan?
Across the developed markets, central banks have embarked on a tightening path—with one exception: the Bank of Japan (BOJ).
Finding the ESG Edge in Global Small-Cap Stocks
In small-cap markets, fundamental research is in short supply—and good environmental, social and governance (ESG) research is even scarcer.
Practice Management Edition: A 6-step Model to Turn Client Trust into Action in a Down Market
The first six months of 2022 have served as a stark reminder that market outlooks can quickly shift. Advisors who want to retain business must now prepare clients for the possibility of greater volatility, abiding inflation and muted returns. Clients have many reasons to be skeptical of change and financial advisors (FAs) who don’t have these conversations now risk having painful discussions with disappointed investors. AllianceBernstein Advisor Institute’s, Ken Haman discusses key insights about human decision-making and research in behavioral finance to look at the practical challenges of managing client trust during uncertain times.
3Q: 2022 Capital Markets Outlook
As prologues go, the first six months of this year have been a doozy.
Are Healthcare Stocks Still Defensive in the Current Environment?
Healthcare has long been considered one of the most reliable defensive sectors—an effective portfolio buffer when equity markets turn volatile.
Deglobalization and the Future of Portfolio Construction
For decades, globalization has been on an inexorable rise, a key pillar fueling economic growth, driving inflation and yields down, bolstering corporate profit margins and supporting an upward climb in market valuations. Over the past few years, though, cracks have started to develop in globalization, as populism has seen a resurgence and trade wars have erupted.
Three Reasons It’s Time to Add High-Yield Bonds
With central banks tightening aggressively to beat down inflation, growth is beginning to slow—and the risk of recession is ticking higher. Historically, creditworthiness has soured when growth slows. But instead of bracing for a wave of downgrades and defaults, we think income-seeking investors should embrace the high-yield corporate bond sector.
Don’t Lose Your Nerve: Four Ways to Reduce Equity Risk
Equity investors are anxious about the future after sharp market declines in the first half of 2022.
Equity Outlook: Bracing for an Economic Slowdown
Spiking inflation, rising interest rates and growing fears of a US recession dominated global equity markets in the second quarter. While the outlook is very cloudy, it’s important to evaluate what types of strategies can help investors in an economic downturn.
Lifetime Income Fees vs. Costs: Look Beneath the Tip of the Iceberg
Lifetime income solutions are high on the wish lists of defined contribution (DC) plan participants, with the certainty of a guaranteed lifetime income stream ranking as the top feature in our surveys over the past decade.
Deglobalization, Reversals in the Supercycle and What it Means for the Future of Portfolio Construction
Have COVID-19 and geopolitics hastened the decline of globalization and other tailwinds that drove an era of exceptional returns? That's the question on the agenda in the next installment of the Disruptor SeriesSM from AllianceBernstein. Our experts tackle the big issues facing capital markets and look closer at the challenges to a powerful mix-including globalization, automation and demographics-that fueled profits and drove capital markets for decades.
Practice Management Edition: Seven Steps to Managing Client Anxiety in Volatile Markets
Market headlines in 2022 have been dominated by inflation, tightening monetary policy, ongoing volatility and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. To get ahead of client concerns, financial advisors need to develop creative ways to turn difficult conversations into opportunities to build confidence. A clear and concise presentation on the capital markets can help solidify and restore lost credibility—and trust. Hear from Ken Haman, Managing Director, and Scott Tatum, CIMA, CFP, Director, as they discuss seven steps to organize a compelling capital-markets narrative.
Will Corporate Credits Crack as Growth Slows?
Investors are shifting their focus from runaway inflation to slowing global growth as central banks hike rates to tame price pressures.
Capturing Persistent Growth in Volatile Equity Markets
Growth stocks are under acute pressure as rising interest rates change the dynamics that drive equity valuations.
Inflation: Higher but Not Forever
High inflation and the consequences of attempts to curb it are a top concern for today’s investors.
FAANG Is Dead: A Timeless Lesson for Equity Investors
For several years, the largest US technology and new media companies were widely seen a cluster of similar stocks.
Want to De-Risk? Look to High Yield
Looking for a tactical way to de-risk your portfolio? You might consider rotating a portion of your equity allocation into high-yield bonds.
Defensive Equities: Finding Stability in an Unhinged World
Three powerful forces have unleashed a volatility storm in stock markets this year.
How the Financial Industry Can Help Stop Modern Slavery
Modern slavery is a lucrative business that can’t exist without the financial system.
Investment Strategies for Generating Efficient Income
An unfriendly macro and market landscape is making life harder for investors today, with traditional core bonds coming up short on income. In our view, focusing on generating efficient income is an effective approach to tackling the challenge of mixing the key building blocks of rates, credit and growth.
Investing for Growth in a Decelerating World Economy
With the world facing inflationary and geopolitical hurdles, economic growth is poised to slow. In this environment, investors in growth stocks must identify companies with the right features to overcome headwinds to earnings.
A Different Kind of Volatility
As of this writing, Russian forces are reorganizing in eastern Ukraine, and fighting is well into its second month. Supply chain disruptions continue, gas prices are reaching all-time highs, inflation has become a constant concern, and some analysts are predicting that the Fed will aggressively raise rates.
ESG Ratings: Solution or Starting Point?
Environmental, social and governance (ESG) ratings are a popular way to search for companies that meet specific criteria in a responsible investing agenda.
The One Metric All High-Yield Investors Should Know
High-yield bonds have a reputation for volatility.
Near-Term Renminbi Outlook: Steady as She Goes
China’s currency, the renminbi (RMB), remains strong even though many of the factors that have driven its performance over the last two years have weakened.
How Synthetic Biology Can Help Fix the Supply Chain Crisis
Supply-chain disruptions are testing companies around the world.
Understanding Your Bond Portfolio’s Carbon Footprint
Transitioning to a net-zero carbon economy* is vitally important, and corporate bonds will play a critical role in the transition.
Balance Is the Watchword with Commodities Exposure
The highest inflation in 40 years has spurred more investors to search for assets that can help offset its bite.
Can the World Live Without Russian Oil?
Russia’s power on the world stage is supported by its vast reserves of oil and gas.
Carbon Handprints: A New Approach to Climate-Focused Equity Investing
How can investors gain confidence that an equity portfolio is invested in companies that are really helping to address climate risk? Focus on a company’s carbon handprint, which measures the positive impact, or carbon avoided, by using its products.
Rising Prices and the Big Trade-Off: Inflation Protection vs. Market Participation
Dormant for many years, inflation has returned with a vengeance—fed by pandemic-related challenges and easy-money policies. Inflation may end up as a temporary condition or a longer-lasting issue, but in either case it’s top of mind for many investors today. Hear from AB experts as they tackle inflation in the inaugural edition of the Disruptor Series by AllianceBernstein.
Looking Beneath the Turmoil in European Equity Markets
European markets have been turbulent because of the region’s proximity to the war in Ukraine and economic links with Russia.
Do Your Clients Know These Three Things About You?
When I meet with a financial advisor in her office, I look around and think, “What do the displayed items tell me about you? Who or what is in the pictures, and why do they matter?”
ECB’s Surprise Taper Decision Comes with Economic Risk
At its March 10 meeting, the European Central Bank (ECB) surprised the market by announcing an acceleration of its tapering program—wrapping up securities purchases earlier than anticipated.
SFDR Unpacked: What to Look for in Article 8 and 9 Portfolios
European investors are struggling to understand new rules designed to confirm the environmental, social and governance (ESG) credentials of portfolios.
Inflation TIPS for Fixed-Income Investors
What happens when you combine the tipping point of two deflationary forces—globalization and demographics—with a pandemic, epic supply-chain disruptions and an invasion in Europe? Inflation of a magnitude not seen since the 1970s. Some of the contributing factors may be transitory, but not all, and lingering inflation is likely to be higher than before. How should bond investors adapt?
Russia Invasion Energy Shock Prompts Monetary Policy Rethink
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shocked the global economy, in particular by fueling further spikes in energy and commodity prices. The new inflationary catalysts will have differing effects on monetary policy moves because regional economies are starting from different places, which will determine their ability to withstand higher commodity prices.
How Green Bonds Will Fund a Green Future
More securities labeled as environmental, social and governance (ESG) bonds are being issued by a wider variety of companies than ever before.
Four Counterpoints to ESG Investing Critics
Sustainable investment funds are mushrooming. Assets under management in Morningstar’s global sustainable fund universe surged to $2.75 trillion at December 31, 2021, nearly three times the pre-pandemic level, according to Morningstar.
What Could Go Wrong? The Case for Governance
Environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors are all important to the sustainability of an investment.
Inflation Protection: Weighing Your Options
Given the dominance of inflation in today's capital markets discussion, it should be no surprise to anyone watching this video that one of the most common questions I get is, “How do I inflation-protect my portfolio?” And that's what we're going to focus on today: what to think about when you're thinking about inflation protection.
Finding the Middle Path in Extreme Equity Markets
Equity markets were jolted in January amid growing concerns about macroeconomic threats.
How DC Plan Sponsors Can Engage Diverse Participant Personas
Millennials often say their biggest challenge is being lumped into one category, as if everyone’s needs and aspirations are identical.
Corporate Credits Can Withstand Policy Normalization in 2022
The prospect of rising interest rates has clouded the outlook for global bond investors in 2022, but it’s not all bad news.
Why US Rate Rises Highlight European Fixed-Income Opportunities
Recently, euro-based investors have been able to access higher-yielding US dollar bond markets while hedging their currency risk at low cost.
Five Ways Technology Companies Offer Inflation Protection
From the advent of electricity to the adoption of the internet, technology has often been a catalyst for cost reduction.
Why Banks' Balance Sheets Are in Better Shape
The COVID-19 pandemic looked set to batter the world’s banks—and yet banks’ balance sheets are now the strongest they’ve been since the global financial crisis (GFC).
Bolstering Asset Allocation Defenses Against COVID-19
The surge of the coronavirus omicron variant has implications not only for broader asset-class allocations but also for macro exposures within asset classes.
Municipal Impact Investing: Making an Impact on Education
One of the things that we like to do is to make sure that our investments are very specific—that they have intentionality behind each investment.
Solid US Value Equities
As we go into 2022 and ’23, we’re going to have an economy that’s going to be quote-unquote normal.
European Fixed-Income Outlook: Euro Markets Will Stand Out in 2022
Rising inflation is troubling bond investors worldwide, but European bond markets will likely experience comparatively weaker inflation pressures and stronger central bank support.
Emerging-Market Debt Outlook: Mixed Conditions in 2022
For emerging-market debt (EMD), 2022 is shaping up to be a contest of conflicting forces.
2022 Equity Outlook
Few investors would’ve anticipated the very strong returns we’ve seen, particularly in the US market.
Equity Outlook: Get Ready for Another Year of Surprises
Global equities surged in 2021 during a year full of surprises.
Why High-Yield Investors Are Rooting for Rates to Rise
High-yield investors should actually root for rates to move higher, rather than lower. And that’s because if rates are moving higher, it means the economy is doing well and companies are generating a lot of earnings, and therefore their credit risk is actually coming down. Which is a really good thing for us as credit investors.
Fed Accelerates Rate Hike and Taper Game Plan
The Federal Reserve responded to stubborn inflation pressures in the US economy by doubling the pace at which it’s tapering its QE purchases. It also ramped up the number of rate hikes it expects will be needed to bring the economy back into equilibrium in the medium term.
Central Banks Push the Levers Toward Tighter Monetary Policy
The world’s central bankers have had to manage competing priorities during the COVID-19 era. Now that COVID-related threats to global economic growth look to be receding, the risks from higher inflation are becoming more prominent in their thinking.
Bond Investors Can Help Hold Companies Accountable Post COP26
The United Nations Glasgow Climate Change Conference, also known as COP26, concluded in November with 200 nations signing the Glasgow Climate Pact (GCP), an agreement that could accelerate climate action and drive big carbon cuts.
Climate Change: The Commodities Dimension
Commodities, by virtue of their fungibility and broad uses, have infiltrated nearly every facet of human life, making the world enormously reliant on their ready availability.
Will Real Estate Stocks Build on Brisk Recovery?
Real estate stocks posted a sharp recovery this year, despite disparate effects of the pandemic on different property types. Improving trends in key US market segments show how investors can gain confidence in property stocks as a diversifying source of solid long-term returns and an effective hedge against inflation.
Six Best Practices for Carbon Offsets
As investors and companies increasingly seek to address the risks of climate change, there is growing debate about the use of carbon offsets in achieving net-zero emissions. We think there’s room for a measure of offsets to achieve carbon neutrality, provided best practices are followed.
Fixed-Income Opportunities in 2022 The Outlook for Income
So, when you think about the end of 2021, and looking forward into 2022, we’re reasonably optimistic about the backdrop. Growth should be set up pretty well for 2022.
Impact Investing: Addressing Local Needs with Precision and Purpose
Impact investing, which seeks to make a direct—and measurable—social or environmental impact while generating a financial return, has historically been synonymous with the private debt and equity markets. But that ignores the hugely important public market of municipal finance.
Modern Slavery: How Investors Can Help the Victims
With profits from forced labor estimated at US$150 billion a year, some companies in global portfolios could be unwittingly associated with modern slavery. The good news: businesses and investors can help tackle the problem—individually and through collaboration.
Rethinking High Yield
In high yield specifically, investors tend to think about it as a risky way to play fixed income. But we like to turn that thinking on its head, actually: that you should think about it as a way to de-risk your overall portfolio rather than to re-risk your fixed-income side.
Four ESG Myths About Emerging-Market Corporates
As one of the fastest-growing bond sectors, emerging-market (EM) corporate debt has become too big to ignore. With US$2.7 trillion outstanding across more than 600 companies, it’s now larger than the entire EM sovereign sector and is equal to the US-dollar and euro high-yield markets combined.
Low-Carbon Investing Needs an Active Eye on Quality
Equity investors focused on a low-carbon strategy needn’t compromise on company fundamentals. When quality and compelling valuations are equally considered, joining the global fight against climate change and generating strong return potential can work hand in glove.
The Synthetic Biology Revolution - Investing in the Science of Sustainability
The revolutionary technology of synthetic biology is poised to make a profound impact on the way a vast array of products are manufactured, from lab-grown meat to cosmetics to biodegradable packaging. Yet investors are paying relatively little attention to the huge business potential.
Disrupting Inflation: Innovative Companies Can Light the Way
Inflation and rising interest rates have prompted many equity investors to reconsider technology and high-growth companies. But this inflationary environment is different, and so are the companies best poised to rise above it.
How to Create a Memorable Client Experience
One advisor whom I coach uses a color-coded checklist with every client to track which areas of a financial plan have been completed and which tasks are pending. It’s a brilliant way to shift a client’s attention from portfolio performance to the larger, more important elements that make up a holistic financial plan.
Making ESG Second Nature in Asset Allocation
It’s not uncommon for stakeholders in large organizations to have different views on the meaning of ESG and the importance of its pillars in defining organizational success. That’s understandable, and in fact, diverse perspectives can be a source of strength when making investment decisions.
360°-View Helps Track Progress in Snarled Supply Chain
After years of anxiously watching for inflation, it’s here. Unfortunately, what many expected to be a short, COVID-19-induced visit has turned into an extended stay, thanks to robust demand and a snarled supply chain. The question now is does the supply chain pose a threat to our economic outlook?
Putting Client Cash to Work—Efficiently
Investors are sitting on a mountain of cash as household reserves now stand four times higher than pre-COVID-19 levels, while money market reserves rose to all-time highs. However, a trifecta of concerns from rising interest rates, persistent inflation, and an evolving US tax picture are making investors reluctant to deploy that cash.
China’s Quest for Common Prosperity: Reading the Tea Leaves
Renewed impetus behind China’s goal of “common prosperity” has raised concerns that Beijing plans a redistribution of wealth that could hurt growth and investment. The reality, however, is more nuanced—and a good deal more positive for China’s long-term growth ambitions.
Global Transition to Renewable Energy is a Complex ESG Journey
Soaring energy prices highlight the challenges of shifting toward renewable power sources. The continuing need for oil and gas during the transitional phase raises complex questions about balancing environmental needs and social concerns on the journey to a net-zero world.
Evaluating Earnings Quality as Inflation Bites
Inflationary pressures are threatening corporate profitability. As third-quarter earnings season winds down, we’re gathering intelligence to identify companies that will have advantages sustaining quality earnings and margins amid rising prices.
Stay Flexible as Rates Rise
When rates are rising, investors need portfolio protection. But it’s no time to sit idly in cash and wait things out. Every day spent on the sidelines means income and opportunities lost. A passive, set-it-and-forget-it investing approach isn’t ideal either. Buy-and-hold laddered portfolios tend to lock in low yields that disappoint if the market begins to offer more.
AllianceBernstein's Guide to Investing in the Time of COVID…and Beyond
Investing is about to get a lot harder, with thinner return streams and potential pitfalls from inflation, rising rates and market volatility dominating the landscape. In our view, the solution is to build a portfolio that has better up/down capture. Getting that balance right is the challenge for every investor—and requires three main elements: better beta, efficient structure and targeted alpha. Each element can create a favorable return sequence and be even more powerful in combination.
Download AB’s guide to get our views on how to design a portfolio around these elements in the post-pandemic environment.
Do Your Equities Have Pricing Power?
When I look at the opportunity, it’s all about how well corporate America has done in terms of increasing profit margins. We’re at record levels now, so the revenues have come back, but all the costs haven’t come back. And that means tremendous earnings growth. That’s the positive.
For DC Plan Participants, Solving for Retirement Income Is a Challenge
After decades of saving for a comfortable retirement, plan participants eventually face the question of how to create an income stream from those savings. Most aren’t sure how to do that, even though income is the main reason they’re saving in the first place...
A Flexible Approach to Equity Investing
Well, on the surface, it's been a very solid year for the second year in a row. But under the surface, it's been unusually volatile.
Sustainability and Investing: Lessons Learned in the Pandemic Era
When the history of COVID-19 is written, the pandemic period will be seen as more than just a health and economic crisis. Both contributed to a social reckoning, with a growing focus on inequality around the world, while the intensifying global climate crisis has added new and unpredictable threats.
Sustainable Investing Through the Supply Chain Electric Vehicles
The shift to electric vehicles means major changes across the supply chain and involves multiple ESG challenges. As the auto industry strives to institute sustainable practices, investors need to engage with governments and corporates to encourage and accelerate the process of change.
How to Take Control of Your Bond Portfolio’s Interest-Rate Risk
Interest rates are rising, and bond investors are worried about the potential impact on their portfolios. But they’re not entirely at the mercy of the markets.
Connecting the Dots on China’s Growth Outlook
Concerns about China’s slowing economy have focused on issues affecting property and manufacturing. But these are only part of the story. Investors seeking a fuller understanding of the risks and opportunities need to take a broader perspective.
Capital Markets Outlook: 4Q:2021
The strong economic and market trends of the first half of 2021 wavered during the third quarter. The coronavirus delta variant caught up with the US at the height of the summer, just as vaccinations slowed and concerns grew that inflation might flare and persist.
Self-Help for Companies Unlocks Equity Return Potential
In business as in life, a healthy sense of self-awareness is often the first step to meaningful change. Companies that are conscious of their flaws and eager to address the root problems offer a source of solid return potential for equity investors who identify the turnaround stories early.
Searching for Companies with Pricing Power as Inflation Looms
Inflationary pressures are mounting, based on evidence from the recent earnings season. The question for investors is, which companies can pass on those costs to help protect profit margins?
Keys to Maximizing Yield in a Low Interest Rate World
The US high-yield market has staged a strong comeback since its downturn at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and—despite historically tight spreads—fundamentals for credit continue to improve. Along with a strong global economic recovery, credit spreads are getting positive tailwinds from declining default expectations, falling levels of distressed debt, and improving access to capital.
Don't Fear a Taper Tango
The US Federal Reserve will soon slow its open market purchases of fixed-income securities. These purchases have served to keep rates low and liquidity flowing, but as the post-pandemic economy heals, it’s time for the Fed to taper. As they step back from buying, who is going to step forward?
Encouraging Effective Executive Pay Structures
Executive pay is a powerful motivating factor. But investors need to consider whether executive pay incentives are fully aligned with the goals of the business. We find that companies with meaningful ESG goals embedded in their executive compensation schemes tend to have a better understanding of the ESG factors that are material to their business, use specific key performance indicators (KPIs) and are more likely to achieve them.
COVID-19 Strained Participant Financial Wellness - Can Employers Help Them Recover?
With COVID-19 still a top employer concern, protecting workers’ health and well-being naturally comes first. But the pandemic’s impact isn’t limited to only physical and mental health: financial wellness is also ailing. The crisis has exacerbated the problem, but it’s not exactly a sudden occurrence.
Hidden Dangers Navigating Climate Risks in CMBS
One of the most crucial components of investing in commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) is assessing the underlying collateral value. But what if investors are disregarding risks that threaten a property’s very existence?
How Populism May Sway Policies in Emerging Markets
COVID-19 has increased inequality and aggravated social problems across emerging market economies, fueling populist pressures—but several emerging countries share features that make them particularly vulnerable. Assessing key environmental, social and governance (ESG) metrics can help identify potential pressure points.
When Will Inflation Lift Off?
Disruptions and dislocations associated with COVID-19 mean current economic data may not be a reliable guide to the future. But by turning to the past, we find compelling evidence that inflation regime change is accelerating.
What’s the Policy Playbook for the Inflation Endgame?
A single-minded approach to price stability is under threat as policymakers start to focus on what are—arguably—more pressing concerns.
Finding Defensive Stocks Ripe for Recovery
Defensive stocks are often misunderstood. In recent years, even when they have delivered strong and steady earnings, returns have disappointed.
Smaller Stocks Defy Emerging-Market Weakness
Emerging-market (EM) stocks have hit a rough patch, but shares of smaller companies have held up well.
China Inc.: Understanding Risk in China’s Credit Markets
Much of the volatility that has recently shaken China’s credit markets has been associated with government interventions.
Technology Enables Municipal Investing at the Speed of Alpha
What You Need to Know
Municipal bonds are the cornerstone of many portfolios, but efficiently navigating today’s complex, fragmented and ever-changing muni market can be overwhelming. Unfortunately, many managers research, evaluate and trade municipal bonds like it’s 1995, missing out on opportunities because they can’t find them in the chaos. The right technology can change that.
Can Advances in Technology Keep a Lid on Inflation?
Technology is advancing at a rapid pace, exerting downward pressure on prices
What to Expect When You’re Expecting a Taper
Many investors, perhaps scarred by 2013’s “taper tantrum,” are focused on the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will start reducing its bond purchases in the next few months.
Five Questions to Ask Your Muni Bond Manager
Today’s complex, fragmented, fast-moving muni market is rapidly outpacing the capability and capacity of traditional portfolio-construction methods.
Time Is Money: Restoring Investor Confidence in Long-Term Cash Flows
As equity style winds shift, investors are still debating the merits of growth versus value stocks.
Will Policy Changes Open the Door to Higher Inflation?
Central banks are being forced to address many challenges—inequality, climate change, and debt management to name but three.
Taking Muni Bonds to the Next Level: Where Cutting-Edge Tech and Fundamental Research Meet
There’s considerable uncertainty in today’s municipal market. Questions persist about the likelihood of rising interest rates, inflation that may not be transitory and the impact on municipalities once the benefits of fiscal stimulus fades. Active bond managers have many decisions to make and need to be nimble in a changing landscape. What’s next for municipal bonds, and how can trading and portfolio management technology help investors navigate this changing environment?
Is Your Target-Date Fund Providing Enough Inflation Protection?
Inflation has been on the rise recently, raising concerns about long-run inflation and its impact on the spending power of those who can least afford it—investors approaching or already in retirement.
Could China’s Regulatory Crackdown Be Good for Credit?
China’s regulatory crackdown on education and tech companies led early this week to a dramatic sell-off that started in Chinese stocks and extended into offshore Chinese currency and credit markets.
Can Onshore Stocks Offer Shelter from China’s Market Storm?
Chinese stocks have tumbled amid a regulatory crackdown on education and technology companies.
Why Investors Shouldn’t Take a Time-Out from High Yield
The US high-yield market has seen a strong comeback since its panic-driven downturn at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Quality Enhances Value for Investors After Market Crises
Market crises and macroeconomic recessions typically create fertile ground for value stocks to outperform in a recovery.
Looking Back and Ahead: Eventful Decades for Emerging Markets
In 2010, 68% of the companies in Fortune Magazine’s Global 500 were domiciled in Group of Seven (G7) countries, compared with 17% in the E20* emerging-market (EM) countries.
The Renminbi Outlook: The Journey Is the Reward
Many investors with exposure to the Chinese renminbi (RMB), having enjoyed a strong rally in the second quarter, are worried that policy uncertainties could hurt the currency’s short-term outlook.
Earnings Bounce Poses Quality Test for Equity Investors
As the world convalesced from the pandemic, stocks advanced in the second quarter and earnings rebounded across sectors.
What Are Bond Investors Thinking? Their Three Top Concerns
Bond investors are worried, and who can blame them?
ESG Managers to High-Yield Issuers: Don’t Stand Still
Environmental, social and governance (ESG)-linked bond structures have become very popular in investment-grade bond markets.
Muni Strategies for an Inflationary Climate
With the post-pandemic US economy on the mend, a new threat has emerged: inflation.
Healthcare Stocks: Four Questions for the Recovery
Disappointing returns for healthcare stocks through the market’s recovery from the pandemic have raised concerns about the sector.
The Fed Will Likely Taper…but Don’t Expect a Tantrum
With the US economy accelerating and price pressures rising, investors have started wondering when the Federal Reserve will start to wind down, or taper, its current QE asset purchases—a pillar of accommodative monetary policy since the global financial crisis.
Uncovering Hidden Risks in Passive Equity Portfolios
Passive equity portfolios continue to gain popularity, but some investors might not know that a small group of outperforming stocks have driven most of the gains in recent years.
Making Sense of ESG Bond Structures
We’re optimistic that environmental, social and governance (ESG)-linked bonds will help create a better, more sustainable world.
Why Munis Should Hold Their Shine Amid Higher Rates
Municipal bonds have held up well this year, despite rising interest rates and inflation. Munis’ long-term outlook is strong too. What accounts for their outperformance in today’s environment?
Will COVID-19 Accelerate Euro-Area Integration?
Widespread lockdowns have resulted in record output declines and soaring debt across the euro area. But the political response to the COVID-19 crisis may be positive for the European integration project—and for euro-area bond markets.
Back to Business: Spending Surge Signals Demand
Global indicators continue to signal a sharp business recovery from last year’s COVID-19 pandemic lows. While inflation expectations are increasing as a result, business improvements offer multi-asset investors good reasons to remain tilted to equities for the next stage of the recovery.
The Current State of Retirement Income
Retirement planning has evolved from a singular focus on savings to ensuring that account values provide income for life. Multiple generations of DC plan participants are concerned that they’ll outlive their retirement savings, and they’re turning to plan sponsors for solutions.
Value Stocks—Still Plenty of Fuel in the Tank
After a strong rally for value stocks in recent months, some investors are wondering if the rebound will continue.
What Could US Corporate Tax Hikes Mean for Share Buybacks?
As the US economy continues to reopen, economic growth is accelerating in line with our above-consensus forecasts.
Will Household Savings Provide an Upside Growth Surprise?
Developed-market (DM) household savings recorded a significant gain last year, with an increase equivalent to 10% of combined gross domestic product (GDP).
Are We in the Middle of a Paradigm Shift?
Paradigm shifts are driven by creativity and innovation. Innovation is attracted to and stimulated by inefficiencies in a big, lucrative marketplace, such as financial services. Recently, our industry has seen a growing number of innovations in how financial-services products are delivered to consumers.
Will the Sweet Spot for Smaller Value Stocks Persist?
US small-cap value stocks have enjoyed considerable success since value stocks began to outperform growth in October 2020.
Resilient Recovery Stocks Transcend the Growth-Value Divide
Investors are reassessing which types of companies will thrive in the next stage of the recovery amid the recent rebound of value stocks.
Future-Income Focus May Boost Current DC Plan Savings
Planning for retirement has historically been focused on saving as much as possible.
Global Equities: Reviewing the Risks to Recovery
Global stocks rose in the first quarter, but volatile trading patterns reminded investors that the road to normal will be bumpy.
Three Strategies for Navigating Turbulent Bond Markets
Today’s market environment taps into bond investors’ primal fears.
Stocks Can Surmount a Return of Inflation
As US inflation expectations grow, many investors are concerned about the potential impact on stocks.
Beyond Renewables, Low-Carbon Investing Eyes Energy Efficiency
Across the industrial sector, low-carbon investing naturally leans toward renewable energy opportunities, like wind and solar power.
Delivering a Net-Zero World—on Time
Companies globally are racing to reduce their carbon emissions. But what does it really take to achieve ambitious green targets?
Accepting the Inevitable
Our brains have a set of built-in shortcuts that influence us every day.
Is Your Portfolio Prepared for Inflation?
It’s been a long time since investors have had to worry about inflation.
Four Things Investors Should Know About US Inflation in 2021
US core inflation likely will be volatile during 2021, as underlying economic forces continue to rebalance from the pandemic.
Crisis Dashboard: Big Data Helps Paint the Big Picture (March Update)
Our crisis dashboard includes signals from three areas: 1) public health, 2) the consumer sector and 3) financial markets. By pulling big data from traditional sources (earnings growth and gross domestic product, for example) and nontraditional sources (like Google Trends and Glassdoor), we can create a better mosaic of the road back.
Raising Equity Defenses for the COVID-19 Recovery
The exit from the pandemic will be bumpy. Defensive stocks with attractive valuations can help provide balance through an uncertain recovery.
Are Growth Stocks Attractive in a Post-Pandemic World?
The recent selloff of US growth market darlings reflects increasing questions about whether their growth potential still justifies exceptionally high valuations. Away from the froth, growth investors can still find solid return potential in quality companies with profitable, sustainable business models.
Can Mario Draghi Recharge Italy’s Economy?
Italy’s new prime minister, Mario Draghi, has a well-earned reputation for turning around difficult situations. But can he reverse Italy’s relative economic decline? And what does his program mean for Italian bond yields?
Five Things Investors Should Know About Hydrogen
Hydrogen’s potential as an energy source is attracting renewed attention. It may take 20 years or so for the potential to be realized. But the effects are likely to be felt within the planning horizons of most long-term investors—a good reason to start thinking now about the investment implications.
Will the Energy Sector Evolve or Devolve?
The energy sector is beginning to adapt to the realities of climate change. Who is best positioned for the future?
Muni Credit Plays Defense When Rates Rise
As COVID-19 vaccines roll out and resrictions lift, a US economic rebound could lead to tighter Federal Reserve policy and higher yields. Municipal bond investors may worry about how rising yields could hurt their portfolios.
Four Things Investors Should Know About US Inflation in 2021
We expect US core inflation to surge in the months ahead, as comparisons to low price levels of a year ago cause sizable fluctuations. Ultimately, supply should respond to recovering demand, bringing inflation down and facilitating easy Fed policy.
The Green Transition: Implications of the European Recovery Plan
Despite questions over financing the European Union’s (EU’s) new Green Deal, the green transition is now under way.
Cold Cash? How to Redeploy in Hot Markets
Investors have parked record piles of cash on the sidelines amid concerns about valuations and volatility. But short-term safety comes at a price. By defining long-term goals, investors can put idle cash to work despite uncertainty about the path to recovery.
Will High-Dividend Payers Make a Comeback in 2021?
Having strongly underperformed the wider stock market in 2020, high-dividend stocks have shown early signs of a rebound in recent weeks.
The Future of Bond Trading—and Why It Matters
The pandemic has accelerated an evolution in bond trading, and it is already making a difference for investors—if bond managers have embraced tech-enabled trading.
GameStop Frenzy Reinforces Need for Quality in US Stocks
The GameStop drama that has rattled US stocks reflects the growing power of individual investors to shape market events. But there are lessons for traditional, long-term investors, too. When markets ignore fundamentals, redoubling a focus on quality is the best way to produce consistent returns while reducing volatility.
Better Stimulus Odds Are Shot in the Arm for US Growth Expectations
The probability of more fiscal relief from Congress has risen—good news for the US economy and a boost to our growth forecast. While risks remain, and it’s too early to talk about the pandemic in the past tense, we’re optimistic the economy can return to more normal footing soon.
How to Choose a Sustainable Equity Portfolio
As inflows to sustainable equities break new records, here’s what investors should look for to identify portfolios that align with their responsible investing goals.
How Shopping—and Investing—Might Be Enabling Modern Slavery
It may seem shocking, but a simple trip to the local store to pick up fresh produce or clothing could enable human exploitation. For investors, those same connections can exist within their portfolios—and it takes more than a passive effort to root them out.
China’s Uneven Equity Rally Opens New Roads to Recovery
As China begins the year of the Ox, many investors are wondering whether another bull run is possible in 2021. Given that last year’s rally was extremely narrow, we believe many parts of the market still offer pent-up recovery potential.
When Markets Are Recovering, Don’t Ignore Volatility
Global stocks rebounded sharply from the coronavirus market crash in 2020, but the ride was rocky. With so many risks clouding the outlook, we believe that investors should focus on generating a smoother pattern of returns through the recovery from COVID-19.
Rediscovering the Appeal of Emerging Market Equities
Emerging-market stocks rebounded in 2020 even as the COVID-19 pandemic spread globally. As vaccines and other favorable conditions unfold, investors have good reasons to consider EM equities in 2021 while strategically considering their potential risks.
2021 Municipal Outlook: Reasons for Optimism
Municipal bond issuers’ financial health and resiliency—which helped in 2020—should support opportunities for active muni investors in 2021.
US Recovery Reveals Hidden Value in Smaller Stocks
Small-cap US stocks rebounded sharply in the fourth quarter. Yet the recovery may still be in its early stages—particularly for smaller-cap value stocks—as pandemic risks recede and earnings drivers kick in during 2021.
2021 Outlook: Will Global Credit Be in the Sweet Spot?
Credit markets have staged an epic rebound from the depths of March 2020. But in a low-growth, low-yield world, we believe there may be more room to run in 2021.
It’s 2021: What’s Ahead?
Now’s the time to put the challenges of 2020 behind us and start the new year with a fresh perspective. While we can’t predict the future, we can break away from old behaviors and be intentional about our choices in the new year.
Emerging-Market Sovereigns: Pandemic Aftermath Sets Stage for Cyclical Uplift
Emerging-market sovereign debt has rebounded sharply off the lows, but this hard-hit sector offers attractive yields and compelling growth opportunities to discerning investors.
Why Should We Remember the Year of the Missing Toilet Paper?
The events of 2020 remind us that life is complicated and fragile and that being prepared really does matter. Could this inspire you to become a character of great significance in the lives of your clients because of how you comfort, lead and inspire them?
Could Chinese Bond Defaults Benefit Investors in the Long Run?
Recent SOE bond defaults signal Beijing’s willingness to let markets price risk more accurately.
ESG Lens Enhances Pursuit of Equity Income
Income-seeking investors have been frustrated in recent years as US dividend-paying stocks underperformed. But companies that offer strong payouts in a sustainable manner can help investors source surprisingly robust streams of income and equity returns.
Low Rates Rev Up Technology Innovation for Equity Investors
Low interest rates and massive stimulus-fueled debt raise investor concerns about potential long-term fallout. But when the cost of capital is this low, it revs up funding for innovation that ultimately fills the pipeline with robust opportunities, especially in technology.
A Road Map to the Coming US Economic Cycle
With a greater level of clarity than we’ve had since the COVID-19 pandemic, we’re getting a better sense of how the US economy might shape up over the next few months, into 2022 and beyond. We see three distinct stages over that time frame.
Will 2021 Mark the Launch of a Durable Global Recovery?
After a difficult winter, we expect the global economy to rebound strongly next year. But structural headwinds remain. Will the post-pandemic bounce trigger a durable and broad-based global reflation?
Vaccine Hopes Shouldn’t Drive Healthcare Investing Strategies
Healthcare stocks are once again in focus as a result of promising news of COVID-19 vaccines. But investors shouldn’t hunt for the pandemic’s panacea. Focusing on business fundamentals is a much better way to find healthcare stocks with long-term potential than searching for the next big drug.
The Growing Case for Broader Investment Beyond Domestic Equities
Despite lingering uncertainty about corporate earnings growth and economies around the world, global stocks have rebounded from the COVID-19-driven downfall in March. But even following that bounce back, international stocks have lagged their US counterpoints for over the last decade. Could they be reaching an important inflection point? If so, how are astute investors casting a broader net to pinpoint the right companies outside the US?
Join us to hear from an interactive panel of investment experts from AllianceBernstein, who will cover:
- Key catalysts that could signal improved performance outside the US
- The benefits of going abroad, including less-crowded trades, lower valuations, and sourcing different alpha
- Why consider a high-conviction approach for international stock selection
- How benchmark-agnostic strategies can help identify forward-looking thematic opportunities
Crisis Dashboard: Big Data Helps Paint the Big Picture (November Update)
As investors look for signs of a return to normalcy from the coronavirus crisis, they have a dizzying array of indicators to choose from. We’ve assembled a group of signals, with the help of big data, that may point the way.
Elections? Vaccines? What They Could Mean for the US Economy
Two recent developments could have big implications for the US economic outlook: general elections and news of very promising progress on a COVID-19 vaccine. To understand the ramifications, we have to distinguish near term from longer term.
Municipal Bonds: The State of the States
States face revenue shortfalls from COVID-19 costs and shutdowns. We look under the hood to assess how some of the most indebted states are faring.
Intangible Assets Provide Tangible Defenses for Equities
Defensive equities are usually found in sectors that have withstood market shocks, such as utilities and real estate. But as COVID-19 shakes up investment conventions, companies with intangible assets are being more appreciated for their volatility cushion.
Is There Light at the End of the COVID-19 Tunnel for the Euro Area?
A fresh round of lockdowns means a difficult winter lies ahead for the euro area. But three factors caution against excessive pessimism.
Capital Markets Outlook: 4Q:2020
The roller-coaster ride of 2020 still has a few twists and turns to navigate. But the massive policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic brought a quick, though incomplete, recovery. With volatility expected to continue, where can investors look for opportunities?
2020 US Election: Inside the Candidates’ Retirement-Savings Policies
There have been plenty of headlines exploring what the November US elections might mean for the economy and markets. But it’s just as important to look at what they might have in store for defined contribution (DC) and other retirement vehicles, which more Americans than ever rely on.
Advice for Advisors: Why an Ounce of Prevention Is Worth 300,000,000 Doses of Cure
Why is it hard to get clients to take preventative action to protect themselves from real and measurable risks?
Japan After Abe: Continuity and Change
As Prime Minister Suga begins his administration, the message is one of continuity, but Abenomics may need a reboot after COVID-19. We examine what Suganomics may mean for Japan.
Emerging-Market Debt: Opportunity in a Volatile Environment
Emerging-market debt has rebounded sharply off March lows, but attractive yields and compelling opportunities persist. We provide a roadmap for what may lie ahead.
Do US Elections Matter for Equity Investors?
Even if this US election has a bigger impact on markets than in the past, we would advise against building an investing strategy based on a potential political outcome for several reasons.
Why European Fixed Income Has Become More Attractive
Euro-area countries were struggling to achieve growth and inflation even before the coronavirus pandemic. Now global lockdowns and trade disputes have compounded their problems. Still, we believe euro fixed-income markets offer active investors attractive opportunities and worthwhile income.
Why Does March Feel So Long Ago?
It seems like ages ago that our firms closed their doors and we scrambled to set up home offices. We weren’t sure what challenges lay ahead, and the market took our breath away in those first intense weeks. But while we don’t like having to cope with a disaster, human beings tend to do well in a crisis and to adapt quickly to massive disruptions.
US Economy Still Faces a Long Path Back to Normal
US third quarter GDP was better than expected, though our updated economic forecasts still show a quick but incomplete recovery. Over time, this should give way to a more gradual, lengthy path back to “normal.” But there are a lot of moving parts.
Investing in Two Battered European Equity Sectors
European equity markets are still struggling to overcome the effects of the pandemic. But diligent investors can find surprising investment candidates.
How to Reap the Most from Your Bond Allocation
Can bonds continue to play defense and provide income when yields are at historic lows? We think so.
Global Equities: Finding Broader Paths Through Narrow Markets
Equity markets advanced in the third quarter but pulled back during September. Market moves were dominated by a small group of giant US stocks. How should investors react?
Low-Carbon Investing Doesn’t Have to Mean Low Return
Investing in businesses that strive for a better climate through decarbonization doesn’t necessarily assume a lower bar for performance. Just the opposite. Besides contributing to a healthier environment, low-carbon equity investing can also offer attractive return potential.
For DC Plans, Pandemic Reinforces Value of Consultants and Advisors
Guiding Defined Contribution (DC) plans through economic cycles is challenging enough without harsh headwinds from a global health crisis. But more plan sponsors are getting invaluable expert help to navigate through current challenges while keeping a long-term perspective.
The 2020 US Election: How Tax Policy May Impact Municipal Bonds
What will a Trump or Biden win mean for munis? From taxes to infrastructure, the candidates differ—sometimes dramatically—on policy.
US Treasuries, German Bunds Still Anchor to Windward
Recent history suggests that low—and even negative—yields don’t eliminate the offset to risk assets provided by government bonds.
Want to Rock That Video Call?
Videoconferencing is becoming routine, mundane and overused. Here are tips for looking and sounding your best on a video call so that your audience stays engaged and you can rock that call.
Corporate Culture: The Secret Sauce for Growth Success
Investors don’t often pay much attention to corporate culture. But cultural norms can make the difference between success and failure, especially for growth companies.
Making Sense of ESG Bond Structures
Investors are eager to buy bonds that help create a better, more sustainable world. Here’s how to navigate the evolving landscape.
Rational Exuberance? Explaining Global Equity Market Gains
Global stock markets seem to be defying the reality of recessions this year. Despite recent volatility, we think market gains for the year are more rational than perceived, given the powerful impact of stimulus and low rates on stock valuations.
Brexit Negotiations: One Minute to Midnight
The Brexit negotiations are growing more adversarial with no signs of agreement on key issues. The most likely outcomes are now the hardest and most disruptive Brexit scenarios—leading to further potential weakness for the UK’s currency.
The End Game: How Governments Might Tackle Debt Burdens
A wave of policy support to stabilize the world economy has left developed nations with a growing public debt load. What path will governments follow to address the issue? History offers several debt-reduction templates.
For Multi-Asset Investors, Defense Is Now a Team Effort
Sovereign bonds have long been the prime defensive asset for multi-asset portfolios. But in today’s extraordinary market conditions, should investors make more extensive use of other defensive choices?
Smaller Stocks Open Broader Windows to Emerging Markets
Equity investors in emerging markets (EM) typically focus on large-cap companies. But allocating to smaller companies can help broaden an EM allocation by providing a different mix of exposures to opportunities across countries and sectors—and can bring potential for higher added value.
Smaller Stocks Open Broader Windows to Emerging Markets
Equity investors in emerging markets (EM) typically focus on large-cap companies. But allocating to smaller companies can help broaden an EM allocation by providing a different mix of exposures to opportunities across countries and sectors—and can bring potential for higher added value.
2020 US Election: What the Polls Could Mean for Policy and Markets
With US elections about two months away, investors are intensifying their focus on the presidential and congressional contests. Historically, political transitions haven’t had much impact on the economy and markets, but this time could be different.
Crisis Dashboard: Big Data Helps Paint the Big Picture (August Update)
Many investors are looking for emerging signs of a return to normalcy from the coronavirus crisis. While there are many indicators to choose from, we’ve assembled a group of signals, with the help of big data, that may point the way.
Debunking the Myths of “High-Priced” Tech Stocks
As technology stocks of all shapes continue to surge, many investors are questioning whether they’re now overpriced. But even at high valuations, we think the tech landscape is still dotted with long-term growth potential.
Style Tilt: Growth Surge Reshapes US Stock Market in 2020
During the coronavirus downturn and rebound, US growth stocks outpaced value stocks by a record margin. Now growth stocks seem expensive, but that depends on how you look at it.
Is There Opportunity in COVID-19 Valuation Dislocations?
Capital markets have rebounded from their COVID-19-induced lows, but impacted industries have lagged substantially. That pessimism may be overdone in some cases, creating opportunities for multi-asset investors to exploit dislocations.
For Muni Investors, COVID-19 Provides Lessons in Liquidity
Investors flock to municipals to meet safety, income and after-tax return goals. But investors should consider how they gain exposure to the asset class.
Don’t Shun Global Bonds
Interest rates are at extreme lows around the world, and they’ll likely stay low for some time. Does this mean US-based investors should revert to a US-only bond strategy?
Is It Instagrammable?
One of the biggest differences between live and virtual meetings is the importance of visual illustrations. Virtual interactions are the perfect medium for using pictures to support a sales presentation. In fact, illustrations can make the difference between a successful encounter and a waste of time.
Is Concentrated Investing Riskier in Today’s Uncertain Environment?
In a world of uncertainty, many investors choose to diversify, rather than investing in a concentrated strategy. But this year, a portfolio of just the five largest US stocks would have significantly outperformed. So, is there a way to reduce risk and to capture long-term growth in a concentrated portfolio?
Are You Sick of COVID-19? Then Here’s What to Do
Cut off from meeting in person. Reliant on videoconferencing. Trying to stay interesting and relevant. Advisors are searching for ways to be useful to clients and prospects. Here are four techniques that can help.
Crisis Dashboard: Big Data Helps Paint the Big Picture (August Update)
Many investors are looking for emerging signs of a return to normalcy from the coronavirus crisis. While there are many indicators to choose from, we’ve assembled a group of signals, with the help of big data, that may point the way.
Can Value Stocks Recover Without Help from Financials?
Growing challenges to banks have weighed on recovery hopes for value stocks. But our research of Japan’s experience and global value trends suggests value stocks don’t necessarily need financials to turn the corner.
Why the US Economy Needs More Stimulus Very Soon
US household income has held steady, but only because of stimulus checks and enhanced unemployment benefits. As Congress debates the shape and scope of the next package, economic data show a clear need for more help sooner rather than later.
China’s Higher Bond Yields Buck the Global Trend
Government bond yields have tumbled globally but China’s yields have risen to pre-COVID-19 levels. The RMB hasn’t yet reacted to the favorable rate difference, and we think bond yields are likely to decline moving forward—a favorable landscape for China bonds.
Do COVID-19 Subsidies Threaten Shareholder Value?
As more companies tap government stimulus funds, questions are being asked about how shareholders may be affected. To answer these questions, investors must assess how corporate behavior and stakeholder engagement will shape a company’s long-term outlook.
Capturing the Ups and Downs in Coronavirus Equity Markets
Several equity factors diverged significantly from their typical performance patterns during the COVID-19 crisis. By understanding how factor returns behaved in this market correction relative to their historic norms, investors can not only prepare for future volatility but also take advantage of short-term market dislocations.
The Trillion-Dollar Question: Will the Corporate Borrowing Binge Cause Lasting Damage?
US Investment-grade corporate bond issuance has rolled past US$1 trillion so far in 2020. What are the long-term effects of this explosive borrowing?
Mastering the Virtual Practice: Virtual vs. Face-to-Face Meetings
Virtual meetings significantly reduce the role of social instincts, and attendees often feel the freedom to multitask or disengage. However, by taking a proactive approach, you can keep virtual meetings on track.
Small Ways Muni Investors Can Make a Big Difference
Investors increasingly want to align their financial goals with a commitment to improving the lives of others. Two recent projects showcase how municipal bond investors are making an impact.
EU Recovery Fund: No Gamechanger but a Clear Positive
After four days of intense negotiations, EU leaders have reached agreement on a €750 billion recovery fund to help repair the economic damage from COVID-19. It took several concessions to EU creditor countries to break the deadlock. As expected, total grants in the deal have been reduced to €390 billion from an original €500 billion proposal.
Income Assets Are Down but Not Out
Higher-income assets underperformed in the second-quarter rebound. But that also means there’s pent-up potential in income-generating assets that may begin to show in later stages of the recovery.
Emerging-Market Equities: Looking Past the Pandemic
In emerging markets, some industries and countries are in better shape than others. And many businesses have the right qualities to benefit from structural changes now and long after local conditions improve.
The Ripple Effect: COVID-19 and Multi-Asset Portfolio Construction
In addition to its tragic human toll, COVID-19 triggered the sharpest recession in recent history, and efforts to control its spread have transformed the way we work, the way we shop and how we connect with others. We think these changes will last awhile—with implications for asset allocation.
US Banks Look Better than Fed Stress Tests Suggest
The Fed’s recent stress tests raised concern about solvency risks to US banks. But as second-quarter earnings season begins, investors may find that some banks are much more resilient than expected.
Mastering the Virtual Practice: 10 Reasons Why Virtual Meetings Are Harder
Virtual meetings are inherently different from face-to-face encounters, largely because they eliminate many of the social obligations that deeply influence interpersonal behaviors. Experience with conducting virtual meetings in a variety of contexts has revealed that they are typically harder to manage than live meetings.
Midyear Outlook: Bond Investing in the Era of Low and No Yield
Low yields plus rising defaults seemingly leave little ground for bond investors seeking safety or income—or both. But for investors who remain flexible, those objectives aren’t as distant as many think.
Brexit in the Coronavirus Era
Reaching a mutually beneficial Brexit deal has so far been beyond the reach of UK and European Union (EU) negotiators. Now that COVID-19 has struck, can they avoid a damaging split?
Lopsided Equity Rally Highlights Growing Market Risks
Global equities rebounded sharply in the second quarter. But new risks are looming as companies and countries count the costs of the pandemic.
The Credit Barbell Isn’t Broken. Here's Why.
Even with today’s low yields, credit barbell strategies can still meet their objectives of downside protection, upside participation and efficient income.
Record US Index Concentration Adds Hazards for Investors
The five largest US growth stocks now comprise more than a third of the Russell 1000 Growth Index. Investors should be alert to the risks of high benchmark concentration.
The One Metric All High-Yield Investors Should Know
One simple statistic can help high-yield investors gauge how their bonds may perform down the road.
Unlocking REIT Potential Amid COVID-19
Economic fallout from the coronavirus crisis was especially hard on real estate, mostly from misperceptions that the asset class is dominated by hotels, malls and office parks. But a look inside shows a diverse group of sectors that are more pandemic resilient than investors may think.
ESG Research Helps Reveal Resilience amid COVID-19
Companies are coping with diverse challenges through the coronavirus crisis. Investors who integrate environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors into their research can gain important insights on how businesses are adapting—and how future return potential might be affected.
Crisis Dashboard: Big Data Helps Paint the Big Picture (Update)
Many investors are looking for emerging signs of a return to normalcy from the coronavirus crisis. While there are many indicators to choose from, we’ve assembled a group of signals, with the help of big data, that may point the way.
Rediscovering the Potential of Downtrodden Value Stocks
Value stocks have underperformed in the coronavirus crisis. Yet some higher-quality companies are now trading at valuations that underestimate their ability to withstand shorter-term stress—and their longer-term recovery potential.
Coronavirus May Shake Up DC Plan Participant Benefits
The COVID-19 crisis poses a big challenge for employers to rationalize the benefits they offer to employees. With budgets stretched and every dollar scrutinized, tough choices loom on DC plan offerings, in addition to programs like financial wellness.
Mastering the Virtual Practice: Why Advisors Will Prefer Virtual Meetings
The new normal—working from home and curtailed travel—is painful for extroverts. Conducting virtual meetings using videoconferencing makes people seem less real, and extroverts crave the physical presence of others. While you may prefer to be face-to-face with your clients, this blog may convince you of the benefits of virtual meetings.
Mid-Grade Munis Have Room to Rebound
Municipal bonds—especially higher-quality issues—bounced back after a rough March. But not all munis have rallied. We see potential among overlooked mid-grade issues.
Mastering the Virtual Practice: Prospecting Remotely
The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted an advisor’s ability to prospect for new business. But with turbulent markets, clients may be willing to consider a new financial relationship. Recognize this opportunity and offer an immediate, problem-solving approach: the Financial Uncertainty Preparedness Checklist.
The Fed Didn’t Ease More...Is That a Missed Opportunity?
The Fed gave its updated economic outlook this week, but not the additional policy support markets were looking for. We think this was a misstep...but one we hope will be corrected if the outlook doesn’t improve.
The Fed Didn’t Ease More...Is That a Missed Opportunity?
The Fed gave its updated economic outlook this week, but not the additional policy support markets were looking for. We think this was a misstep...but one we hope will be corrected if the outlook doesn’t improve.
Five Reasons Municipals Have Rarely Defaulted
Municipal bond defaults have been rare, making them a remarkably resilient investment over the years. The reasons range from the very services muni issuers provide to the fundamental characteristics of municipalities.
Are Tech Stocks the New Utilities for Investors?
As the coronavirus crisis reinforces technology’s fundamental role in our lives, investors can find sources of risk reduction and growth potential in companies that have become digital utilities enabling global networks.
Mastering the Virtual Practice: Why Your Clients Will Prefer Virtual Meetings
The term “new normal” now widely applies to everyone’s lives. One facet is attending virtual meetings. It’s our view that web-based conversations are here to stay because they are better than live interactions. Here is a list of 10 reasons why your clients prefer virtual meetings.
Can AT1s Survive Coronavirus?
European banks’ additional Tier 1 securities should survive a short bout of the coronavirus. But even in a prolonged pandemic, the risk/reward trade-off might be better than perceived.
Can the Coronavirus Crisis Bring Positive Change to Emerging Markets?
Emerging markets (EM) are at a crossroads. The impact of COVID-19 aggravates pre-existing challenges. But it also enables those EM economies that respond effectively to create better conditions for the future.
Why Have Chinese Stocks Held Up So Well?
Chinese stocks have been resilient this year because of relatively modest earnings downgrades amid an early recovery from the virus-induced shock.
Don’t Fear Government Bonds in Multi-Asset Portfolios
Today’s bond yields are extremely low, and some multi-asset investors may be struggling to rationalize exposure to interest-rate driven assets such as government bonds. But past experience suggests that they can still be effective diversifiers over the near term, even at low yield levels.
The Compassion Paradox
As the COVID-19 crisis and the challenge of the economic recovery process continue, it’s critical to understand how to care about our clients without caring too much. Don’t risk your own well-being and become unable to help those who need you.
Preparing Chinese Holdings for Potential US Action
Tensions between the US and China are flaring up again. With pressure mounting on Chinese stocks listed in the US, including those widely held in emerging-market portfolios, investors need to consider how to prepare for the mounting risks.
Why Have Chinese Stocks Held Up So Well?
Chinese stocks have been resilient this year because of relatively modest earnings downgrades amid an early recovery from the virus-induced shock.
How Will the Coronavirus Change the Role of Central Banks?
COVID-19 has supplied the catalyst for a secular change in the role of central banks. Providing governments with ammunition to fight the virus is now the overriding goal, and this means keeping bond yields pinned close to zero for the foreseeable future.
Credit Risk-Transfer Securities: Finding the Way Forward
As fixed-income markets have started to recover following the massive selloff and liquidity crunch in March, credit risk-transfer securities (CRTs)―agency mortgage securities not guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac―have been slower to do so. Investors are wondering: Where do CRTs go from here?
Can Smaller Stocks Recover from Coronavirus Blow?
Small-cap stocks were hit harder than large-caps in the coronavirus sell-off. But given the extreme market dislocations, select smaller companies with innovative advantages could offer investors a surprising source of diversification for the uncertain times ahead.
US Retail Innovators to Prosper in Post-Coronavirus Recovery
Economic fallout from the pandemic is devastating US retail. But companies that were already adapting well to seismic changes in the industry should prosper over time.
The Market and Negative US Rates: Right Idea, Wrong Tool
The Fed continues to dismiss the idea of negative US rates but the market keeps pricing them in. We don’t expect negative rates: in our view, the market is using them as a proxy for Fed measures that may be needed but aren’t yet identified.
Decisions, Fast and Slow
Many human decisions are driven by impulses known as heuristics, such as the simple-and-familiar bias. When mental energy is depleted, as during a crisis, advisors may employ this bias to select investment solutions that are easy to explain (simple) and that they’ve used before (familiar).
What We Can Learn from China’s Rapid Normalization
China is further along the coronavirus curve than much of the rest of the world. What does its path to normal look like, and what are the big unknowns?
Asian Stocks: Value Appeal Revealed in Coronavirus Recovery
Asian businesses are gradually rebooting after governments quelled the initial wave of the pandemic. Conditions may be improving for regional value stocks that were beaten down before and during the pandemic.
Of Hawks and Doves—and Why Neither Is Right
As an advisor, you have protective instincts, so COVID-19 is likely to activate your emotions and push your thinking toward extremes. Your brain is probably searching the world for dangers and building a decidedly negative worldview. Psychologists call this catastrophizing: seeing the future in a negative light. This reduces your ability to sort available information.
Systematic Target-Date Rebalancing: Taking Emotion out of the Equation
The turmoil in the first quarter of 2020 reinforced the importance of rebalancing in target-date design. As we see it, a finely tuned, systematic approach can help keep emotions in check and risk under control—benefits that translate to many types of multi-asset solutions.
Do Healthcare Stocks Protect Portfolios in a Pandemic?
Healthcare stocks usually are defensive for a portfolio during market downturns. Given the extent of the pandemic’s impact, more questions are being asked about the sector’s resilience.
Crisis Dashboard: Big Data Helps Paint the Big Picture (Update)
Many investors are looking for emerging signs of a return to normalcy from the coronavirus crisis. While there are many indicators to choose from, we’ve assembled a group of signals, with the help of big data, that may point the way.
The Coronavirus Policy Wave: When Will the Bill Come Due?
The onslaught of the coronavirus forced the Federal Reserve and lawmakers to take desperately needed measures. The US economy will eventually recover, but the effects of these drastic policy decisions will be felt for a long time.
How to Invest in Equities When Guidance Disappears
As an unprecedented number of US companies suspend earnings guidance, equity investors should rethink the overly precise game of predicting short-term estimates.
Corporate Debt: Defaults, Downgrades and Fallen Angels
Coronavirus-led economic uncertainty is forcing downgrades, defaults and fallen angels. Could this spell opportunity for credit investors?
Coronavirus Challenges the European Project
The coronavirus has exposed the European Union’s (EU’s) fault lines. For now, European Central Bank (ECB) bond purchases should hold things together. But ultimately, national governments will need to take some tough decisions to secure the EU’s future.
Managing Risk Models in the Coronavirus Crisis
The spread of the COVID-19 virus has blindsided conventional risk models. By understanding what went wrong, investors can develop a more forward-looking approach to risk management that considers multiple scenarios for a highly uncertain market environment.
Crisis Dashboard: Big Data Helps Paint the Big Picture
Many investors are looking for emerging signs of a return to normalcy from the coronavirus crisis. While there are many indicators to choose from, we’ve assembled a group of signals, with the help of big data, that may point the way.
What Plunging Oil Prices Mean for Energy Bonds
Oil prices briefly turned negative this week. What does it mean for energy bonds? And why does the long view for oil matter more?
Defensive Stocks Redefined in COVID-19 Sell-Off
Following the market meltdown, investors seeking to bolster defensive positions could end up finding them in some unusual places.
Coronavirus and the US Economy: How Big Will the Hit Be?
The decline in US economic activity from social distancing measures and forced shutdowns is likely to be bigger than our initial guess. While we expect a recovery once the coronavirus crisis eases, we don’t have enough information yet to dimension it.
Fed Actions May Stabilize Global Corporate Markets
Under the CARES Act, the Fed has expanded supports for corporate bonds. Could this bring a regime shift in volatility for global credit markets?
Coronavirus Crisis Adds Urgency to Sustainable Investing Agenda
Companies with strong ESG credentials will play an essential role in addressing the dramatic changes being triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Advice for Advisors While Working from Home
Working from home is the new normal for most of us these days. Are you taking mindful action to take advantage of opportunities presented by today’s environment?
Don’t Panic! Bear Market Communication Tips for DC Plan Sponsors
The bear market is challenging defined contribution (DC) plan sponsors to reinforce timeless investing principles while also conveying new rules that bring relief to participants. Good communication practices are a key ingredient to achieving success in both these areas.
Bond Investing as Coronavirus Crisis Intensifies
Most of the bond market sold off in March as the coronavirus crisis intensified. But as past crises have shown, indiscriminate selloffs can generate big opportunities.
Big Market Selloff? Stay Dynamic With Risk Positioning
As risk assets tumbled in late February and March, it intensified the focus on risk management: How can multi-asset strategies defend against turbulence while positioning for an eventual rebound? The answer: Be ready to adapt—and to do it quickly.
Five Investing Perspectives for the Coronavirus Crisis
Following these guidelines can help equity investors navigate the uncertainty created by the COVID-19 pandemic when selecting stocks and positioning portfolios.
The Key Part of the US Fiscal Relief Package? Willingness to Act
The historic US fiscal aid package isn’t a quick fix, but it provides welcome relief and will make it easier for the US economy to rebound when the coronavirus crisis eases. More important, it shows that Congress is willing to act swiftly and dynamically.
Stress Testing Companies for an Impending Recession
In the midst of a historic crisis, it’s hard to see through the fog. But investors who ask the right questions now will be able to identify companies that can make it through.
Remembering Walter Cronkite
Television remains one of the most influential distributors of information and ideas, yet the majority of Americans distrust the reports they get from TV. This distrust may stem from the fact that there is a lot of fear in the news today. How can advisors help clients make sense of the news and help them get back on rational footing?
Could US Municipals Suffer as Coronavirus Spreads?
Are municipal bond issuers vulnerable to the COVID-19 pandemic? We assess key sectors, from states to hospitals to airports.
How Can European Policymakers Beat the Coronavirus?
Europe has changed swiftly from spectator to front-line combatant in the battle against the coronavirus. The potential damage from its spread is severe, but European policymakers are reacting robustly to the threat.
China’s Coronavirus Experience: Lessons for Global Investors
The current market outlook is bleak. But if the US and Europe take the right steps and follow China’s playbook, we believe the world could ultimately follow the Chinese markets’ road to recovery.
The Fed and Coronavirus: Is Fiscal Help Needed, Too?
With markets reeling from concerns over the coronavirus and plummeting oil prices, the US Federal Reserve took another step Monday to shore up markets. The Fed has more in its toolbox, but fiscal policy may also be needed to fill a gap in the US economy.
Broadening ESG Perspectives in European Equities
European investors were recently reminded how tricky it is to evaluate a company’s environmental, social and governance (ESG) credentials. Tesla’s plans to chop down a forest to build a manufacturing facility for electric cars in Germany reinforced the need for independent research and engagement to assess the risks and opportunities created by ESG controversies.
How Will the Coronavirus Impact World Economies?
The coronavirus is dominating the news and sparking panic in markets. We believe the options for policymakers are clear—but will they implement them?
Fed May Cut Rates Further to Counter Coronavirus Headwinds
This week’s Fed rate cut helped steady financial markets reeling from the expected impact of the coronavirus on the US economy, and we think more cuts are coming—in March and beyond. The economy should rebound in the second half of the year, though at a lower full-year pace.
US Equity Valuations Rebooted by Coronavirus
After recent sharp declines, US stock valuations look more attractive, especially compared with bonds. While the current volatility is unsettling, heightened uncertainty over earnings because of the coronavirus crisis could create opportunities for long-term investors who distinguish between winners and losers from the shock.
China’s Bond Markets Can Weather Coronavirus
As China’s leaders scramble to contain the COVID-19 epidemic, the global community braces for impact to China’s people, equity and bond markets, and economy.
High-Yield Investors Should Look Beyond US Corporates
Investors who want bigger returns from their high-yield strategies should consider a global approach.
The China-US Tech Rivalry: Beyond Doom and Gloom
As China steps up efforts to achieve technological independence, there may be a silver lining for some global companies in the sector.
Making the Most of Merger Arbitrage
Merger arbitrage can create highly attractive returns. But there’s a big problem: hedge-fund managers typically take 30%–50% in fees. We advocate a smarter way to approach merger arbitrage investing, with much lower fees.
Tech Stocks Should Be Prominent in ESG Portfolios
The Wall Street Journal criticized ESG portfolios earlier this month for being dominated by big technology stocks. But we think technology stocks are integral to a responsible investing agenda when chosen as part of a well-defined process targeting companies that foster environmental, social and governance (ESG) improvements.
Revisiting China’s Equity Markets as Coronavirus Spreads
Growing fears about the coronavirus have hit Chinese stocks. While markets will remain unstable until China gets the outbreak under control, equity investors should revisit lessons from previous epidemics and consider the potential longer-term effects of the current crisis.
Navigating Political Risk in Latin America’s Andean Region
Late in 2019, Chile, Colombia and Peru saw an uptick in political turmoil that was unusual, given that they’re perceived as politically stable countries with “market-friendly” policies. With several key elections on tap in 2020, we’re watching closely for potential risk flare-ups.
Are High-Yield Returns Predictable? Key Metric Suggests Yes
One way for high-yield investors to gauge how their bonds may fare down the road has been with this simple, accessible and historically accurate tool.
Brexit: It Ain’t Over till It’s Over
At long last, the UK has left the European Union (EU). But now tough and unpredictable negotiations lie ahead. In our view, the probability that they end in a negative short-term economic outcome is greater than 50%.
Revisiting China’s Equity Markets as Coronavirus Spreads
Growing fears about the coronavirus have hit Chinese stocks. While markets will remain unstable until China gets the outbreak under control, equity investors should revisit lessons from previous epidemics and consider the potential longer-term effects of the current crisis.
Should Investors Avoid US Healthcare Stocks in an Election Year?
US healthcare is always a political hot potato, and volatility is expected to rise as the November elections approach. But investors can find good opportunities in the sector in companies with strong long-term business drivers that are relatively immune to political noise.
Beyond Green Bonds: Innovations in Sustainable Investing
ESG investors, take note: a controversial new bond format that links a company’s sustainability goals to its bottom line could be a game changer.
Can US Stock Investors Rely on Earnings Growth?
With US equities trading at relatively high valuations, earnings growth will be essential for investors to generate returns in 2020. That’s a tall order in today’s environment. Finding standout companies with sustainable growth potential will be especially important.
High-Income Outlook: Setting a Course for 2020
Late-cycle markets can unnerve high-income investors. But we see ways to generate a healthy level of income while potentially decreasing overall portfolio volatility.
Valuing Equities in a Low-Growth World
As we enter a period of lower growth globally, investors have given higher valuations to companies that can achieve consistent growth. This seems logical, but are we in danger of overpaying?
Municipal Bonds: Four Ways to Stay Flexible in 2020
The outlook for the muni market is favorable for 2020, but investors should be prepared for twists and turns. Staying flexible can help keep investors on track.
Valuing Equities in a Low-Growth World
As we enter a period of lower growth globally, investors have given higher valuations to companies that can achieve consistent growth. This seems logical, but are we in danger of overpaying?
Will the Wuhan Coronavirus Infect China’s Economy?
A virus is spreading across China, causing disruption, severe illness and even death. In addition to the tragic human cost of an epidemic, widespread disease can cause significant macroeconomic damage. We estimate the potential impact of the Wuhan coronavirus on China’s GDP growth.
Five Multi-Asset Strategies for 2020’s Challenges
The last decade produced great performance across most asset classes. But in the 2020s, we expect investment market returns will be lower and risk harder to manage. Looking forward, a disciplined multi-asset approach will be especially valuable to identify opportunities and help mitigate setbacks.
How to Balance Your Bond Portfolio in 2020
In a low-yield, late-cycle environment, the right mix of credit securities and government bonds can help fixed-income investors boost income and tame volatility.
Are Low-Volatility Stocks Too Expensive?
Even as global stocks climbed in 2019, market volatility persisted. By some measures, lower-volatility stocks now look quite expensive. But in fact, high-quality stocks that can help protect portfolios can be found at reasonable prices, if you know where to look.
The Phase-One US-China Trade Agreement: Cease-Fire, Not Peace Treaty
The US and China formally signed a phase-one trade deal Wednesday after several months of negotiations. We see the deal as a near-term positive for markets—but it also leaves the thorniest issues between the two countries unresolved.
Finding Valuable Opportunities in US Value Equities
So as we stand today, the opportunity in value stocks is quite significant. The spread between value and growth stocks is as wide as it’s been at any point in the last almost 20 years.
Fixed Income Outlook: Keep an Eye on Systemic Risks in 2020
With bond yields near record lows, can fixed-income markets generate solid returns in 2020 without forcing investors to take too much risk? From a fraught geopolitical landscape to a global slowdown, we assess today’s biggest challenges—and opportunities.
Equity Outlook: Between Optimism and a Hard Place in 2020
Global stock markets rallied in 2019, defying political and macroeconomic uncertainty. Will investors be as fortunate in 2020? Since many risks remain, maintaining style diversity and finding investing themes that are detached from volatility drivers will be important ingredients for equity allocations.
Lifetime Income: Weighing Costs vs. Benefits
With the likely passage of the SECURE Act within the new government appropriations bill, annuities will gain safe harbor protections. This—and presumed cost concerns—has been a sticking point making some plan sponsors hesitate to offer a lifetime income solution in their defined contribution plans.
Three Possible Paths for Fed Interest Rate Policy in 2020
The US Fed held rates steady in December and plans to continue that stance through 2020. But a lot can happen to change the Fed’s mind—after all, it entered 2019 expecting to hike rates and ended up with three cuts. What does 2020 have in store?
Investing in Chinese Stocks After the Trade Truce
Now that the US and China have agreed to begin easing trade tensions, the fog over China’s markets is starting to lift. Investors should consider Chinese equity opportunities that have been overlooked because of tariff fears.
Now Boris Can Get Brexit Done—But How?
After a decisive victory in the UK’s general election, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has a strong mandate to “get Brexit done.” But the eventual shape of his Brexit deal is still far from clear.
Beyond Green Bonds: Innovations in Sustainable Investing
Environmentally minded investors, take note: a controversial new bond format that links a company’s sustainability goals to its bottom line could be a game changer in building a more sustainable future.
The Phantom Metric: What Really Drives US Equity Valuations?
Investors continue to question whether US equity valuations are too high, particularly for growth companies and versus other global markets. But standard valuation metrics don’t tell the whole story. Understanding the cost of capital can provide essential insight on valuing stocks.
For Growth Stocks, Profits Are the New Normal
After a series of disappointing initial public offerings (IPOs), private and public equity investors are becoming more discerning about earnings. And for good reason. Profitable companies outperform by a wide margin over time, even among high-growth companies, which often post losses early in their lifecycles.
Four Reasons Investors Shouldn’t Shy Away from Illiquid Alternatives
Many investors are somewhat skittish about illiquid alternatives because they’re worried about tying up their money for a long time in an investment that they can’t trade or exchange easily. However, illiquidity may actually work to investors’ advantage.
Big Tech Faces Big Test on ESG Issues
As big tech and media companies face growing concern about the power of their businesses, more questions about environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues are likely to be raised. Social and governance issues deserve greater attention amid increasing regulatory scrutiny of industry giants.
Does the American Shopping Mall Have a Future?
Black Friday is around the corner. Will US shoppers head to the mall? Or are malls out of fashion for good? The debate about the retail apocalypse is playing out in a single bond index.
Energizing Europe: Regional Markets Show Signs of Recovery
European stocks have outperformed US equity markets in recent months, after several years of underperformance. Is this the start of a longer trend? It’s too soon to say, but some unfolding developments could signal a reversal of fortune for a long-unloved asset class.
Fed Next Steps: What’s Likely, What’s Not
The Fed has signaled it is unlikely to cut interest rates again in December, but we expect further rate cuts next year. We believe the Fed has not yet done enough to protect the economy against headwinds. While we don’t forecast a US recession, we think additional monetary policy easing will be needed to stabilize growth.
This is No Time to Ditch Duration
It’s easy to overlook government bonds today with yields so low. But their interest-rate sensitivity, or duration, can provide vital protection when riskier assets such as stocks and credit struggle.
ESG: A Key Component of Quality Companies
Today, ESG issues may be more prominent in investors’ minds and approaches, but quality investors have been asking these questions for some time.
In a Post-Cycle World, Earnings Growth Is King
Investors are increasingly asking whether the macroeconomic growth cycle still exists, and, if so, where are we in it? The answers to these important questions have real implications for the way equity investors should think about their portfolios.
Are Private Equity Blowouts Good for Stock Investors?
There’s growing evidence that private equity markets are beginning to overheat after several high-profile IPO flops. Investors in stocks should pay attention because private funding troubles are also a very public market affair.
A High-Income Survival Guide for Late-Cycle Markets
It’s easy to get spooked in late-cycle markets. But we think there’s a way to de-risk your portfolio and still generate a decent level of income—no magic spells necessary.
Four Signals that Could Point to a Bigger Value Rebound
US value stocks staged a strong recovery in September after an extended period of underperformance. While value slipped again in early October, we’re monitoring four signals that might indicate whether we’re on the cusp of a bigger value rebound.
Muni Investors: Listen to the Market
The market is moving very quickly. I can’t say that there’s one aspect that we’re looking at, but one thing I will tell you that I do believe is that we’re a Tweet away from—fill in the blank. It’s just the world that we’re living in at this point.
Five Lessons Packaged Target-Date Solutions Can Learn from Customization
As defined contribution (DC) plan sponsors know, the US Department of Labor recommends considering both packaged and custom target-date strategies when choosing a solution. As we see it, packaged solutions can learn a few things from fully customized target-date solutions, which are generally used by large and megasize plan sponsors.
Illiquid Investments: Getting the Formula Right
Alternative investments have the potential to enhance portfolio returns and reduce risk, but it isn’t easy to determine which alternative works best—and how much of it to own. To get accurate answers, it’s necessary to look beyond traditional asset-allocation approaches.
Why It’s Time for a Barbell Strategy
As economic cycles enter their later stages, investors sometimes find that they’re taking too much risk to generate income. There’s a strategy that can help—and we think now is the time to use it.
Will Municipal Bonds Continue to Deliver?
Despite the municipal market’s strong year-to-date rally, an aging US expansion and low yields continue to top municipal investors’ concerns as we enter the home stretch of 2019. When conditions are evolving and visibility is limited, active and flexible strategies can help balance risk and reward.
Global Equities: Keeping Balance in a Wobbly World
Global stocks advanced in the third quarter, but investor sentiment wobbled amid puzzling signals on macroeconomic growth and monetary policy. Political uncertainty and a cloudier outlook point to more volatility, which should compel investors to intensify their focus on stock fundamentals.
How to Invest in Technology As Regulators Defang Giants
US state attorneys general recently stepped up their scrutiny of big tech’s business practices. With corporate mammoths likely to be in the crosshairs of regulators for some time, equity investors should consider looking beyond the titans for opportunities in the sector.
Choosing Better Investing Ingredients for a Turn in the Cycle
What sources of market returns can withstand late-cycle uncertainty? By identifying the right ingredients, we think investors can create an allocation with the potential to overcome new challenges and perform well over the long term.
How High Yield May Reduce Portfolio Risk
Want to reduce overall portfolio risk without giving up on income? Consider high-yield bonds.
US Equities: Take Care with Leverage
When we think about how much leverage is being used right now by corporates, I reflect on the old saying: “It’s all fun and games until someone loses an eye.”
How Balanced Income Can Help in Today’s Markets
If clients have income needs, then it makes most sense today to look at a balanced approach.
Out of Balance? Growth vs. Yield in US Stock Valuations
In today’s highly uncertain market environment, investors in US stocks are paying a premium for companies with high-dividend yields. But how much is too much—especially if interest rates stop declining? Stocks with resilient high-growth profiles deserve a closer look.
To Hedge or Not to Hedge? With Currency, It’s a Vital Question
With global markets growing more volatile, we’re often asked what we think are the most underappreciated risks that investors face today. One in particular stands out: currency risk—especially for non-US dollar–based investors.
Selecting Insurers for Lifetime Income: Help Is on the Way
When it comes to implementing a secure lifetime income solution for a defined contribution (DC) plan, sponsors may balk at the task of evaluating insurers and different types of retirement income options. But fiduciary help is already available, with additional services and innovations on the way.
Income Investing When (Trade) Tensions Run High
Trade tensions—and the volatility they bring—are forcing investors to think about new ways to generate low-volatility income. A mortgage income strategy that balances high-quality securities with historically high-returning ones can help.
Washington Helps Retirement Plan Quest for Secure Income
Washington legislators have crafted some substantive support for defined contribution (DC) plans to offer secure income solutions for participants. The Secure Act, currently under Senate review, may be a key component in clearing away some hurdles that have previously made DC plan sponsors hesitant to incorporate lifetime income solutions.
Does Your Target-Date Glide Path Suit Your Workforce?
Plan sponsors evaluating packaged and custom target-date solutions should take a close look at the demographics of their plan participants and how they stack up against those of a “typical” plan. It’s critical information when making a glide-path decision.
Three Ways to Manage Fixed-Income Liquidity Risk
Liquidity risk grabbed headlines this summer on the heels of several high-profile fund implosions. The hunt is now on to find ways to manage market liquidity risk and to protect portfolios against liquidity crunches. We’ve pinpointed three essential practices.
Why EM Corporate Debt Deserves a Place in Your Portfolio
Investors recognize that emerging markets are at the core of the global economy and belong in a fixed-income allocation. Still, many investors are underexposed to emerging-market corporate bonds. We think that’s a mistake.
Investors Can Hold US Companies Accountable to Roundtable Pledges
Leading US CEOs recently pledged to redefine the role of the corporation in society. But will they make good on their promises? Responsible investors need a clear way to evaluate whether a company is really making progress by doing good for both society and investors.
Are Distressed Small Banks Putting China’s Banking System at Risk?
It’s been 20 years since a Chinese bank failed. But recent bailouts of three regional lenders have raised concerns about systemic problems in China’s financial sector. While risks have grown for China’s smaller banks, we believe that the Chinese banking system remains robust.
The Investor’s Survival Guide to a Long Life
Rejoice—people around the world are living longer! But pause the festivities—that means they need more retirement money. To ensure they don’t run out of cash, savers need to adjust their investment strategies as their needs change, both before and after retiring.
Why Today’s Inverted Yield Curve Isn't Necessarily a Recession Warning
The most closely watched part of the US yield curve inverted this week for this first time since 2007, suggesting that a recession may be around the corner. We’re not convinced that’s true.
Are European Energy Companies Sustainable Investments?
Oil and gas producers are often seen as vulnerable to global efforts aimed at curbing climate change. But some European energy groups might become part of the solution to climate change rather than part of the problem.
Does Sustainable Investing Constrain a Portfolio?
Sustainable investing is often misunderstood. Many investors think a sustainable agenda limits a portfolio to a narrow piece of the market. In fact, plenty of stocks can help investors create social benefits while generating strong returns—if you know how to find them.
China’s Currency Weakness: Not as Bad as it Seems—Yet
China’s currency depreciated this week, with the exchange rate rising to more than 7.0 renminbi per US dollar, unnerving investors worldwide. Here’s the good news: we don’t think the decline is as worrisome as it may seem.
Is a New Front About to Open in the US-China Trade War?
Financial markets are focused on the ongoing trade war between the US and China—which goods and services are in play and what measures are being taken or threatened in each case. But the trade conflict could spill over into currency markets—and that’s a risk that bears watching.
Midyear Municipal Outlook: Stay Flexible Late in the Cycle
Municipal bonds have had a good run since the beginning of the year, but there’s still room for additional positive performance in 2019. That’s particularly true for investors who choose active strategies with the flexibility to move money around the bond market as conditions evolve.
Rising Risk of No-Deal Brexit
With the pound sliding to two-year lows, currency markets are signalling a higher probability of a no-deal Brexit. But the fallout from no deal would hurt the rest of Europe, too, and add to downward pressure on euro-area bond yields.
Postcard from Japan
When people talk about Japan, they often do so in the context of ‘lost decades’ and warnings of limited growth opportunities. Nearly one-third of the population is over age 65, inflation is stubbornly low and predictions for future economic growth are not encouraging.
Will Easy Monetary Policy Keep the Global Economy Afloat?
Global markets have taken heart from a truce in the trade war and signs of yet more monetary-policy stimulus. Easy money may well give a short-term lift to asset prices, but longer-term prospects look more challenging, especially for Europe.
Do Weak Stock Flows Point to Equity Gains Ahead?
The 11-year equity bull market is certainly getting long in the tooth, but several important indicators suggest we may not be at the end yet.
US Corporate Cash Is Down: Should Investors Worry?
The recent decline in US corporate cash hasn’t raised a lot of eyebrows, but it has caused one of our equity-quality indicators to flash a warning. Since equity quality is one of the signals with a strong track record of predicting market sell-offs, should investors be worried?
Finding Growth in a Low-Growth World
When macroeconomic growth slows, investors get edgy. But the economy isn’t the only thing that drives revenue and earnings growth for companies. Some industries are poised to expand at a rapid clip even if GDP growth is subdued or decelerating.
Will Dovish Fed Policy Fuel US Stocks?
Equity markets recovered in June as the US Federal Reserve turned decidedly dovish, coming in line with most central banks around the world. But after posting strong gains, to end the quarter close to a record high, how much more steam do US stocks have left?
Global Equities: Searching for Symptoms of Three Mounting Risks
Global equities advanced in the second quarter, but the path was rocky. Incoming earnings reports will provide important clues about how companies are coping with mounting challenges—from trade wars to global growth—and how investors should position.
The ESG Edge to Concentrated Equity Investing
There are many ways to apply responsible investing principles to portfolios. But some investing approaches may be more conducive to creating a portfolio with strong environmental, social and governance (ESG) qualities than others. Concentrated equities are a case in point.
What’s the Long-Term Oil Outlook? Watch How the Majors Invest
What’s the long-term outlook for oil in a world shifting to renewable energy? Oil majors publicly say supply-and-demand dynamics will support the market. But their investment choices suggest that they’re preparing for a much weaker oil price in the distant future.
European Automakers – Trade War Woes Add Pressure on Bonds
Trade war fears have dominated the headlines recently, but European automakers already face other serious headwinds. We believe bond investors should tread warily in this sector.
Combining Big Data and a Human Touch for Equity Insights
Figuring out how to use big data is the next frontier for the asset-management industry. Equity investors must have the right culture—and ask the right questions—to successfully integrate data science into research and investment processes.
Postcard from… West Africa
When I landed in the brand-new airport in Nigeria’s capital of Abuja I was taken by the modern and cavernous nature of its terminal, a reflection of the country’s future ambitions. One of Africa’s best airports, in Accra, Ghana, also boasts a new terminal.
Why a Barbell Income Strategy May Help Late in the Cycle
Earning income without taking excessive risk is a balancing act—and it can be hard to pull off in the late stages of a credit cycle. A credit barbell strategy can help investors stay on their feet.
Following UN Goals to Sustainable Equity Themes
The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UN SDGs) offer a good guide for investing in companies making a positive impact on society. But where do you begin? Start by drilling deeply into the SDGs themselves to identify investible themes.
Fed Looking for an Ounce of Prevention with Rate Cuts
The Fed left its benchmark rate unchanged this week, but also signaled a very high probability of cuts later this year. Historically, rate cuts have been a sign of trouble—typically made in response to slower growth and rising unemployment. But this time around, growth data aren’t showing much weakness. What’s the story?
Funding the Future: Putting Purpose in Your Bonds
Creating a sustainable fixed-income portfolio isn’t just about avoiding harm–it’s about doing good. The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals provide a road map for selecting companies that offer products and services that help the environment and create a more equitable, just world.
ECB Struggles as Central Banking World Turns Upside-Down
As global growth prospects have weakened, the world of central banking has been turned upside-down. But while the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has already hinted at a change of course, the European Central Bank (ECB) is still struggling to adapt to the new reality.
Healthcare Stocks: Invest in Business, not Science
Healthcare stocks served as powerful painkillers during last year’s market declines. Yet the sector offers much more than just downside protection for investors who focus on business potential and resist the urge to predict scientific breakthroughs.
Trade Wars Likely to Change the Fed’s Interest-Rate Game Plan
The trade war has taken a harsher turn, threatening to further dampen economic growth. We expect the Fed to respond with sizable rate cuts, but the timing and amounts are more speculative than normal. Why? Economic data haven’t yet taken a major downward turn, and there’s uncertainty over how the Fed will react.
Trade Wars Likely to Change the Fed’s Interest-Rate Game Plan
The trade war has taken a harsher turn, threatening to further dampen economic growth. We expect the Fed to respond with sizable rate cuts, but the timing and amounts are more speculative than normal. Why? Economic data haven’t yet taken a major downward turn, and there’s uncertainty over how the Fed will react.
Equities: Concentrate on Right Risks for Right Reasons
Investors shouldn’t avoid risk: it’s how you generate return. One solution is to find good companies that have the right risks for the right reasons and for the right time horizon. With a concentrated portfolio, you can spend more time on fewer companies, get to know them better and see if they’ve got a great runway for growth.
Will Modern Monetary Theory Go Mainstream?
Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) has moved from the fringe to broader public discussion recently, fueling concern from some investors about growing debt levels. We don’t expect MMT to replace our current economic structure, but its populist-inspired underpinnings will likely have a sizable influence on policy.
Brexit Update: New Developments Raise No Deal Risks
Two important political developments in the UK over the last week have raised new questions about the Brexit outlook. While there’s still time for a compromise to be reached, we think the risk of the UK leaving the EU without a deal has increased.
Value Disconnect: Why Are Cheaper Stocks Still Stuck?
Global value stocks have continued to underperform in 2019. But there’s a big disconnect between the weak returns of cheaper stocks and their underlying earnings profile.
China and US: Tug of Trade War
The latest spike in trade tensions between the US and China raises the stakes for the G20 meeting in late June. It also has some investors questioning how China will manage growth as well as fiscal and monetary policy to keep stability through these uncertain times.
Postcard from… India
India’s financial sector can be as chaotic as a Mumbai street market. But when I recently visited India and looked beyond the noisy headlines, I felt excited about the attractive investment opportunities that were created by the liquidity crisis which started last September.
Evaluating the Effects of China’s Pork Crisis
African swine fever is ravaging China’s pork supply and having a global impact on protein prices. For equity investors, the crisis serves as a reminder that even amid trade-war uncertainty, research into domestic trends can help investors access the country’s vast stock market.
Emerging Markets: Widen Your Lens Beyond Trade Tensions
The beauty of EM investing is you can find opportunities in stocks or bonds beyond the narrow focus of headlines.
US Housing Reform and the Future of CRTs
Credit risk-transfer securities (CRTs) have made the US mortgage market safer by shifting default risk from taxpayers to private investors. The latest attempt to overhaul the housing finance system isn’t likely to change that.
Responsible Returns: Better Stocks for a Better World
Many equity investors want to help create social benefits while generating strong returns. Deploying a clear investment process that draws on the UN Sustainable Development Goals and integrates ESG factors in research can help investors achieve these twin goals.
European Banks—Choosing the Right Layer of the Capital Structure
European Banks have mostly been magnets for bad news and disappointment for their equity holders. But we believe other parts of the banks’ capital structure offer solid returns, backed by resilient balance sheets.
Why Play Defense in Rising Emerging Markets?
Why should emerging-market investors exercise caution in a rising market? With big unresolved challenges, we think it’s prudent to target companies with solid fundamentals and stable business models to overcome macroeconomic uncertainty and build a resilient portfolio for the long-term.
Where Next? Our Post-Recovery Outlook for Emerging-Market Debt
Emerging-market bonds got off to a strong start after a difficult 2018. Are more gains possible? We think so, and volatility sparked by increased trade tension may provide a buying opportunity for selective investors.
Unicorns and Growth: From Sales Stories to Profit Fantasies
Technology unicorns are in the spotlight, with Uber’s high-profile IPO expected this week. As scrutiny of their business models intensifies, we think investors should also ask tough questions about publicly traded companies with high sales growth but scant cash flows.
The Three Risks Bond Investors Should Be Watching
Risk assets have bounced back this year after a dreadful finish in 2018, with a big assist from the US central bank. But are markets overlooking the potential for problems down the road?
Beat the Warning Lights: Managing Risk in European Equities
Investors often ask how it’s possible to allocate capital to European stocks given the political risks that abound. We think the answer is to combine disciplined stock picking with risk-management tools that look for unintended threats to a portfolio.
Watch Out for Volatility, Even in Rising Markets
Global stocks rebounded in the first quarter, but the ride was rocky. Even in a rising market, volatility is a clear and present danger. With so many risks clouding the outlook, we believe that investors should focus on generating a smoother pattern of returns.
The Case of the Missing Inflation…and What the Fed’s Doing About It
US inflation has been running low for some time, and key members of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) are pointing a finger at the traditional policy framework. So rate hikes are on hold for the time being—and monetary policy is under the microscope.
Looking to De-Risk? High Yield Can Help
The S&P 500 Index hit an all-time high on April 23, thanks to improving investor optimism. But for some equity investors, market highs signal a good time to reduce downside risk. Shifting a modest allocation into US high yield is an efficient way of doing just that—significantly lowering overall risk while only modestly curbing potential returns.
Debt, Downgrades and Fallen Angels: Keeping Risks in Perspective
The market has grown less anxious about an imminent wave of bond downgrades. That’s good, because overestimating the risk can lead to missed opportunities. But the risk hasn’t disappeared, making research as important as ever.
Climate-Proofing an Equity Portfolio
From rising sea levels to catastrophic weather events, investors can’t afford to ignore the risks of climate change. Since many companies would be vulnerable if current climate forecasts materialize, asset managers may want to consider climate change in their equity research process and engage management teams on the subject.
Misreading the Signs: Is Yield-Curve Inversion a False Alarm?
The US yield curve dipped into inverted territory recently. But that’s not necessarily a bad omen for equities. There are several important warning signals—and lately the yield curve’s slope is the only one flashing red.
The Late, Late Cycle: Preparing for a World of Lower Returns
These are tricky days for the global economy. As growth downshifts and corporate earnings weaken, some investors are dusting off playbooks for late-cycle investing. That makes sense, but there are a few twists to today’s market conditions that may require new responses.
Is Inversion Panic Justified?
In recent weeks, the US yield curve has been making investors nervous again. The curve has inverted before each of the last seven recessions, and it did so again on March 22. But what does an inversion really mean for equity returns?
Brexit Extension: It’s Progress, but Not as We Know It
The European Union has given Britain seven more months to sort out its exit plans. While the chaos of a disorderly Brexit has been averted for now, we think the compromise could have some unintended consequences.
Watch Out for Volatility, Even in Rising Markets
Global stocks rebounded in the first quarter, but the ride was rocky. Even in a rising market, volatility is a clear and present danger. With so many risks clouding the outlook, we believe that investors should focus on generating a smoother pattern of returns.
Equity Investing When Turbocharged Growth Is Gone
n today’s low-growth, low interest-rate environment, investors should be patient, and look for opportunities to use volatility to get into desirable investments at the price you’re willing to pay.
Back Where We Started? Equities Rebound but Risks Remain
Global equities rebounded sharply in the first quarter from the sell-off in late 2018. But conditions remain shaky and caution is warranted. Investors should pay close attention to policy-related risks when considering their allocations.
Emerging Markets: Don’t Be Spooked by Bleak Headlines
Signs of a recovery in emerging markets early this year have given way to worries about China’s economic slowdown and sluggish growth in Europe and Japan. But beyond the negative headlines we think many risks that weighed on the market last year have faded and the earnings outlook is relatively strong.
Inflation and Pricing Power
Many US companies have forgotten how to raise prices because they haven’t had to for a long time. In some sectors, such as retail, pricing power has been hobbled by the giant consolidated retailers, leaving other businesses unable to adequately offset inflationary pressures.
Is the Fed Done with Rate Hikes This Year…and Next?
Last week’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) surprised even those who expected a dovish outcome. As the Fed wrangles with its policy framework, one takeaway is clear: don’t expect rate hikes this year—and possibly next.
Three Reasons Why It’s Time for a Barbell Strategy
As economic cycles enter their later stages, investors sometimes find that they’re taking too much risk to generate income. There’s a strategy that can help—and we think now is the time to use it.
Beyond the Brexit Trees, Is There Light in the EU Wood?
Now that the UK has avoided (at least for now) a hard Brexit as it negotiates to extend Article 50, investors might reasonably wonder whether they can relax for a moment and take stock of the bigger picture. What sort of longer-term future does the European Union (EU) have, irrespective of the UK?
Looking Forward, Looking Back: 10 Charts After 10 Years
Just over a decade ago, global markets began to recover from the biggest shock in postwar history. These 10 charts show both how much has changed since then and how post-crisis market conditions may influence the next decade.
Brexit: Is the Show that Never Ends About to Enter Another Act?
Nearly three years after the UK voted to leave the European Union (EU), the deadline for Brexit is less than two weeks away and the British government is asking for more time. While it’s easy to be distracted by the ongoing chaos in Parliament,
High-Yield Bonds: A Long-Term Investor’s Friend
The US high-yield bond market has an impressive record when it comes to recovering drawdowns quickly. But how much can an investor who stays put reasonably expect to earn?
Doing the Math on Women’s Empowerment
No one organization is responsible for the advancement of women, and that means every organization is. Women’s empowerment starts with education. It continues with the ability to earn an equitable living, especially in fields where women are underrepresented, and crests with women playing leadership roles at work or owning their own businesses.
Healthcare Stocks: Invest in Business, not Science
Healthcare stocks served as powerful painkillers during last year’s market declines. Yet the sector offers much more than just downside protection for investors who focus on business potential and resist the urge to predict scientific breakthroughs.
Avoid the Crowds in Chinese Stocks
After MSCI decided today to boost the allocation to Chinese onshore stocks in its emerging-market indices, global investors are likely to pump more money into the market. But watch out for crowds. Flows into China are concentrated in a small group of large-cap stocks.
The Long View: China—The Indispensable Nation?
A generation ago, China had little influence beyond its borders. Today, its importance to the world economy rivals the United States’. China’s role in markets is growing, too: in April, it will join a major global bond index. The future may bring a freely traded Chinese yuan and a challenge to the US dollar.
Avoid the Crowds in Chinese Stocks
As MSCI considers boosting the allocation to Chinese onshore stocks in its emerging-market indices, global investors are pumping money into the market. But watch out for crowds. Flows into China are concentrated in a small group of large-cap stocks.
Five Reasons Europe Should Avoid Recession in 2019
The euro area faces another challenging year, but we see a continuation of recent soft growth as much more likely than recession. The European Central Bank (ECB) is, nonetheless, now likely to delay its first rate hike to 2020, and could also implement fresh credit-easing measures.
Value Equities: Is the Long, Dark Winter Ending?
Value investing has always been about challenging the consensus—but never more so than today. After several tough years, we’re seeing signs of a value recovery brewing. Yet fresh approaches are needed to capture the potential in today’s complex markets.
No more ‘Wild East’: China’s Stock Market Is Growing Up Fast
The Chinese stock market is changing at breathtaking speed and is on track to reach maturity faster than any other in history. Global investors have been reluctant to dive in, but there are good reasons to get acquainted with the companies serving the world’s second-largest economy.
High Yield: The Comeback Kid
How swift will the high-yield recovery be? How likely is it to be sustained? History sheds some light.
What the Size of Your Coffee Cup Can Teach Us About Investment Returns
Many US companies have enjoyed an earnings boost from premium products in recent years. But a strong sales mix may leave a company’s profitability vulnerable in the late stages of an economic cycle, when spending trends begin to weaken.
The Long View: Debt and Demographics
Countries and companies have been on a borrowing binge even as the growth of the working-age population in many parts of the world slows. Is a prolonged period of low growth and low inflation in our future?
Can a High-Yield Allocation Still Offset Equity Volatility?
Should you be concerned that high-yield bonds didn’t predict last year’s equity market selloff? We don’t think so. In fact, we think investors should consider adding high-yield exposure to reduce overall risk.
Latest Jobs Data Show a Robust US Labor Market
The government shutdown and temporary displacement of some workers didn’t cause the strong US labor market to miss a beat. Today’s jobs report reinforces that gains have been accelerating. That’s good news for the economy and markets.
Municipal Bonds: Three Strategies for 2019
Municipal bond investors like their muni portfolios to play the role of Old Faithful in their overall asset allocation, providing safety and income. But that doesn’t mean that the investment environment is reliably the same. How can muni investors stay on track in 2019? They can adhere to these three strategies.
Brexit and Beyond: Investing in Europe amid Political Risk
With Brexit headlines dominating the European news, equity investors face an ongoing challenge. Building resilient portfolios requires a clear view of the long-term outlook for European companies that also reflects major short-term political uncertainties.
Nigeria and South Africa: Will Elections Bring Change for Investors?
Africa’s two largest economies will hold elections this year, and there’s a good chance the outcomes will lead to slightly faster growth and higher asset prices. But rising populism and nationalism remain a longer-term risk.
Are Global Stocks Divorced from Reality?
Equities declined around the world in 2018, and valuations fell sharply. The risks are clearly significant—but have stocks fallen too far? With earnings still expected to advance this year, we think selective investors can find attractive entry points.
US Government Shutdown—Dimensioning the Economic Effects
The US government shutdown is almost four weeks old, and there’s no sign that the standoff will be resolved anytime soon. How much has the shutdown impacted—and how much will it impact—economic growth? That depends on how long it lasts.
Populism Is Alive and Well: What’s the Big-Picture Impact?
It’s been two years since our initial research on populism, and populist-inspired policies continue to advance today on multiple fronts. As we see it, investors should expect more of the same ahead—influencing everything from global economic growth and inflation to policies directed specifically at the corporate sector.
It’s Different This Time: Risk Is Up and Here to Stay
Investors are likely to remember 2018 as the end of the era of easy money, low volatility and steady margin expansion. Investing will be more challenging in 2019—and diversification will be more important than ever.
Steering Equity Portfolios Through Stormy Style Seas
As volatility returned to global markets in 2018, return patterns for equity styles were very unstable. With more signs of turbulence ahead, investors should prepare to reduce the impact of short-term factor swings on portfolio performance.
US Equities: Could 2018 Pain Become 2019 Gain?
With US stocks facing multiple risks, it’s easy to lose sight of the positive trends that could help the market recover. In 2019, investors should search for select stocks with the right attributes to produce positive surprises in a potentially tricky market environment.
Fixed-Income Outlook: Three Themes We’re Watching in 2019
The past year was a rough ride for bond investors. Will 2019 deliver more of the same?
Don’t Rely on Cheap Oil to Power Equity Markets
It’s taken for granted in financial circles that lower oil prices are a boon for stocks, as they fuel an economy-boosting cycle in which money saved at the pump ultimately flows to the market. But oil prices that are too low could be too much of a good thing.
Wary of Emerging-Market Debt in 2019? You Shouldn’t Be.
There’s no sugarcoating it: 2018 was hard on emerging markets. But as Nietzsche (and Kelly Clarkson) said, what doesn’t kill you can make you stronger. And as 2019 begins, we see many pockets of strength—and opportunity.
Fewer Fed Rate Hikes in Store—But Not Because the Economy’s Faltering
As expected, the Fed hiked interest rates yesterday, but we now think there will be fewer hikes in 2019 than we previously called for. Not because the US economy is in trouble, but because the Fed is changing its approach to setting policy.
Is the US Housing Market Headed for a Correction?
The median price of a US single-family home has risen just over 40% since the last housing-market crash. While newspaper headlines may put readers on edge, our analysis indicates a gradual slowdown, not a bursting bubble—in most regions.
Will Fallen Angels Disrupt US Credit Markets?
The media and some market observers are bracing for a blizzard of BBB-rated bonds to get downgraded to junk as the credit cycle turns. We expect it will be closer to a flurry.
Faster, Smarter, More Efficient: Bond Investing Goes Digital
Bond investing is going digital. Find out how fixed-income managers who are integrating technology into their processes will be able to move from great ideas to executed trades faster and with better results than those who stick with the analog status quo.
Going Out of Style? Value vs. Growth
Recent market gyrations have many people asking: Is it time to pivot from a growth equities allocation to a value equities allocation? But that’s the wrong question. Instead of asking which style is likely to outperform, investors should be asking why they’re performing differently.
When It’s Rocky, Keep Your Bonds Balanced
The balanced approach to income generation for fixed income has certainly been under challenge. If we look at five-year yields—early September, 180 basis points; today they’re at about 2.8%. So, 100 basis points higher means you’re going to put price pressure on a balanced approach to generating income.
Ready and Able to Exploit Equity Volatility
Recent volatility in equity markets has certainly increased anxieties for many investors. But we believe in being prepared and ready to exploit volatility—to position a portfolio for what will drive excess performance over the next three to five years.
Less Favorable Growth-Inflation Mix in 2019
As we get ready to move into 2019, the macro backdrop points to a less favorable mix of growth and inflation at a time when central bank balance sheets are starting to shrink. Even if growth is simply returning to trend, the year ahead is likely to be more challenging—with populism and China looming as key downside risks.
The Markets Are Volatile. The Fed Can Live With That.
A rapid rise in US interest rates has put financial markets on the defensive lately. Will the Federal Reserve respond by slowing the pace of its tightening campaign? Don’t bet on it.
Populism: Get Used to It
We think populism is here to stay and that it will be a persistent part of the investment backdrop for many years to come.
The US Yield Curve Inverted. Time to Worry?
What drove down US stocks this week? The answer may be the US bond market and what the shape of the yield curve is—or isn’t—telling us about the state of the economy.
New Year’s Resolutions for High-Income Investors
First, the bad news: high-income investors should saddle up for another bumpy ride in 2019. Now the good: with challenges come opportunities—and we see plenty on the horizon for investors who take the long view.
Digital Revolution Checklist: Questions to Ask Your Manager
When it comes to creating alpha, fixed-income managers that stay ahead of rapidly evolving technology will have an advantage over those that remain stuck in the analog world. But how do you assess how well your manager is navigating the changing technological landscape?
Active US Investors Gain Hedge Edge with Global Bonds
Rates are low globally. But yield isn’t the only component to consider when investing. Active US-based investors can take advantage of differences between the US dollar and other currencies to pick up a decided edge by investing in international bond markets.
Debt Bulge Raises Stakes for US Equity Investors
US corporate debt has surged over the past decade. As rates begin to rise from historic lows, focusing on quality companies with healthy balance sheets can help equity investors avoid danger zones.
Beyond the Sugar Rush: Strategic Stimulus for Chinese Stocks
Whenever the Chinese economy slows and its stocks take a serious hit, investors have come to expect the government to unleash large-scale fiscal and monetary stimulus. Another heaping spoonful of sugar may do more harm than good this time around, however. It’s time for the ailing market to take some medicine.
Is the New Brexit Deal Already Dead?
With cabinet ministers resigning by the hour, it’s tempting to think that British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal with the European Union (EU) is dead on arrival, and that a hard Brexit is now the most likely way forward. But some form of soft Brexit is still the most likely scenario, in our view.
Bank Loan Run May End Soon
When it comes to US high-yield bank loans, we don’t mince words: we think the risk rarely justifies the potential reward.
Market Sell-Off Shows Risk Is a Moving Target
Recent volatility reminds us that new risks are testing standard defensive equity strategies. Portfolios that offer downside protection need to go beyond standard risk models and position themselves for changing challenges ranging from trade wars to European political instability.
Will Energy Bonds Hold Up in a Volatile Oil Market?
A dramatic fall in oil prices, followed by a sell-off in high-yield energy bonds—is it time to worry about oil and gas companies again? Quite the contrary. The North American issuers that make up most of the world’s high-yield energy market are in a better position today than they have been in years.
Smoke and Mirrors: Earnings Flatter US Stock Valuations
After October’s sharp market declines, many investors might think US stocks look relatively cheap again. But equity valuations require closer scrutiny, and earnings metrics might be distorting the fundamental performance of businesses.
What Does a Divided US Congress Mean for the Economy and Markets?
Democrats took the House of Representative. Republicans held the Senate. What should investors expect from the US midterm election outcome? In the way of policy, not much. But the new political landscape may be good for markets.
Value Stocks Show Signs of Awakening
Value stocks have underperformed for years. But things may be changing. Cheaper stocks have shown signs of awakening recently, and several market forces could tip the scales in favor of value after a prolonged growth surge.
Red Wave/Blue Wave? Thoughts on the US Election
What might the US midterm election results mean for fiscal policy and financial markets? Probably not much if Democrats and Republicans end up splitting control of Congress. But a sweep by either party could lead to very different outcomes.
Looking Beyond the Equity Market Sell-Off
The intensifying global equity sell-off this week has rattled many investors. More turbulence can be expected in the short term, but the recent volatility isn’t particularly extreme in historical perspective, and long-term market fundamentals still look solid.
Living the Retirement Dream?
Retirement reality for many Americans may not be as grim as forecasters predict. Could it be better? Yes. But many retirees in our new survey see a glass that’s more than half full.
Crowded Trades, Liquidity Problems and Tech Solutions
Crowded trades have become all too common in fixed-income markets. But running with the crowd is risky, particularly when it comes to illiquid assets like bank loans that may not be easy to sell during a market downturn.
Bond Managers Power Up for the Digital Future
The digital revolution took its time getting to fixed income, but today it’s transforming the investing landscape. Already, major advances in technology are helping early adopters gain unique insights and act faster in markets where speed and alpha are increasingly and inextricably linked.
Will US Yields Continue to Climb?
US Treasury yields have risen in response to strong economic growth. In the first week of October, the yield on the 10-year bond surged to its highest level in more than seven years. The question is: Do yields have more room to run?
How Low Can Emerging Markets Go?
Emerging-market (EM) stocks fell in the third quarter and continued to diverge sharply from developed-market equities. While it may be too soon to buy into the weakness, investors should watch for signs that could herald a quick rebound.
Retirement and Beyond: Congress Considers Changes to the Way Americans Save
With the midterm elections looming and an executive order that underscores President Trump’s interest in how Americans save for retirement, it’s increasingly possible that Congress could approve substantive retirement reform in the coming weeks.
NAFTA 2.0: A Bold New Beginning? Or a Modest Rewrite?
The revised NAFTA deal relieves uncertainty for Canada and avoids a possible Mexican barrier to ratification. But what does it really mean for the three countries involved—or for trade tension with China?
What the US Midterm Elections Mean for Policy and the Markets
Will Democrats retake the House of Representatives in the US midterm elections this fall? Will it matter for your investment portfolio if they do? Probably not so much, although a Democratic sweep of both houses could be more disruptive.
The Fed’s on Auto-Pilot—For Now
When it comes to the official US short-term interest rate, the Federal Reserve now appears to be on autopilot, with three more quarter-percentage-point increases likely by mid-2019. But after that, things should get more complicated.
Healthcare’s New Vitamin D: Data Analytics
Harnessing the potential of Big Data will be a major factor in the future of healthcare. And some of the greatest innovations in the sector’s future may not come from companies in healthcare, but from technology companies.
Loans Occasionally Beat High Yield—but Not for Long
When it comes to US high-yield bank loans, we don’t mince words: we think the risk rarely justifies the potential reward.
Responsible Investors Should Focus on ESG “Offenders”
Investing in companies that have favorable ratings on environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues has become increasingly popular. But investors might do better targeting companies with poor ESG ratings and a clear commitment to mend their ways.
Seven Ways Fixed-Income Investors Will Benefit from the Digital Revolution
At long last, fixed-income investing is entering the digital age—and investors should pay close attention to what their asset managers are doing to keep up. From better pricing to better solution design, the digital revolution that’s transforming the fixed-income management landscape can lead to a host of benefits.
Emerging Markets: Turkey Is Not Typical
Equity investors in the emerging markets (EM) have suffered significantly as a result of the escalation of the Turkish crisis. But a closer look at the EM index reveals that not all emerging markets are in crisis mode.
How the White House’s Proposals Affect Plan Sponsors and Advisors
President Trump’s most recent executive order creates the potential for significant changes in how private sector retirement plans operate.
Into the Unknown: Positioning Portfolios for an Unpredictable World
From the US-China trade war to the ongoing Brexit negotiations, global investors are grappling with a wide array of unpredictable events. Yet with the right approach, equity portfolios can confidently cope with the next bout of market uncertainty.
Emerging Markets: It’s Not All About Turkey
Investors in emerging-market (EM) stocks have taken a big hit as Turkey’s crisis has escalated. But a closer look inside the EM benchmark suggests that the entire developing world isn’t broken.
Diagnosing Healthcare Stocks
While many investors in healthcare stocks may try to focus on predicting scientific outcomes, we take a different approach. We look at the return on invested capital (ROIC), and that’s how we find opportunities.
Rising Brand Power Boosts China’s Investment Appeal
China is often seen as a source of low-cost manufacturing. Yet today, many Chinese companies are building world-class brands that are overtaking global competitors at home—and are not fully understood by investors.
US Stocks: Three Reasons to Invest Now
US stocks continue to pose big questions for investors. After nine years of strong gains, concerns about market conditions are rife. But we think US stocks are more attractive than perceived for three main reasons.
Imbalance of Trade: What Trade Wars Mean for Market Stability
Reduced global trade may have the unintended consequence of strengthening the US dollar, raising interest rates and pushing down stock prices. Together with tighter Federal Reserve policy, these developments may increase market turbulence.
With Stocks, Short-Term Is Short-Sighted
Asset prices have far outstripped the underlying fundamental performance of many businesses, and that may pose challenges for investors now that developed economies are beginning to normalize interest rates.
Reading the Signs: Investment-Grade Bonds Present Warning and Opportunity
US investment-grade corporate bonds look cheaper today than their lower-quality counterparts in the high-yield market. Is this the buying opportunity of a lifetime? Not exactly. A closer look reveals there’s actually method to the madness.
How Contagious Is Turkey?
The Turkish lira has dropped 35% as of August 16, putting pressure on inflation as well as the country’s debt-heavy corporations and banks. Investor jitters have spread over the past week to some other emerging markets and European banks with Turkish exposure, but we don’t expect contagion to expand much further from here.
Will Chinese Renminbi Destabilize Markets as Trade Wars Escalate?
The trade war between Washington and Beijing has tipped China’s currency onto a path of destabilization. If hostilities escalate, China may let its renminbi (RMB) fall further. For investors, that could mean more volatility and tighter financial conditions.
Inverted US Yield Curve? Recession? Not So Fast
Many investors have started to scrutinize the shape of the US Treasury yield curve, worried that a potential yield-curve inversion would mean imminent recession. In our view, things aren’t that simple.
Under Siege: How Trade Wars Affect the World’s Major Automakers
From steel to engines to whole cars, tariffs are shifting the playing field for automakers. Our credit analysis suggests there are no winners in this war: consumers should expect higher sticker prices, companies lower earnings and investors more volatility.
EM Stocks in the Time of Trade Tantrums
Trade war’s becoming a bigger source of concern amongst investors, particularly in emerging markets, because a lot of those economies are very trade dependent. But there’s a difference between the first-order effects, the categories that are actually under trade restriction or trade tariffs now, and what might be happening in future.
Should Equity Investors Lose Sleep Over the Yield Curve?
A single line chart is keeping an awful lot of investors up at night: the US Treasury yield curve. It’s been flattening steadily since the end of 2016 and is nearly the flattest it’s been since 2007. We all remember what happened after that.
Debt Hangover Looms After US Borrowing Binge
US companies, lured by historically low interest rates, have taken on massive amounts of debt in recent years. As rates begin to rise, investors should beware of companies that might be vulnerable to increasing financing costs.
Midyear Outlook: What a Trade War Could Mean for the Bond Markets, and More
We answer some of today’s most pressing investor questions—from the effect of trade wars with China to our expectations for rising rates and a correction in high yield.
Think Small in a Trade War? Yes, but Think Carefully, Too
As trade tensions escalate, investors are flocking to stocks of smaller US companies, which rely less on foreign sales than their large-cap peers. But in some industries, tariffs could affect smaller companies in unexpected ways.
Can the US Economy Weather the Trade Wars?
Aluminum. Cars. Solar panels. It’s hard to track the tariffs without a scorecard. As headlines continue to swirl, many investors worry about the impact on the US economy. Clearly, tariffs and trade wars hurt growth, but we don’t think the impact will be big enough to derail the economy just yet.
Not Dead Yet: What Many Investors Get Wrong About the American Mall
Headlines about the death of the American shopping mall have become so common that the phrase “retail apocalypse” has its own Wikipedia page. But this is a death wrongly foretold—and that creates investment opportunities.
Supreme Court Decision Could Relieve Stress for Some States
Thanks to the Supreme Court’s decision in South Dakota v. Wayfair, Inc., states can now choose to levy sales taxes on online transactions with no physical retail presence within the state. Our chart shows the potential impact on state budgets.
Is All-Passive Really the Best Thing for Target-Date Funds?
With market returns expected to be lower going forward, target-date funds that invest in passively managed underlying components are at risk of underdelivering. We think diversifying beyond traditional asset classes and tapping alpha opportunities with a multi-manager structure can increase the chances of success.
Are US Companies Investing Enough for the Future?
Corporate investments are the cornerstone of future growth. Yet shareholders are often seduced by buybacks and dividends. Equity investors should always make sure companies strike the right balance between deploying cash flows for short-term shareholder rewards and strategic reinvestment.
Bonds Minus Duration: A Train Wreck in the Making?
A bond allocation is like a railroad. Credit is the locomotive that generates high returns, duration the track that keeps the train in line. Take the track away and you risk running your portfolio into the ditch. That’s why duration-hedged credit strategies are dangerous.
Global Cyclical Outlook: The Cycle Matures
As the global economic cycle moves into a more mature stage, monetary policy is becoming generally less accommodative and inflation risk is up. Meanwhile, geopolitical risk has become a fixture of the global landscape. What does all this mean for our outlook at the midway point of 2018?
Emerging-Market Debt: Expect Volatility—and Opportunity
Summer is just beginning, but emerging-market (EM) bonds and currencies have been on a roller-coaster ride for months now. In markets, though, volatility breeds opportunity—and we still see plenty of that among EM issuers.
Dangerous Yield Curves Ahead?
There’s new rumblings about an inverting yield curve ahead. Is it time to panic? Time to stick our heads in the sand? Or time to think sensibly?
Four Reasons Why It’s Time to Get Real About Inflation
With the global economy moving into its late-cycle stages, we think it’s a good time to bolster portfolio inflation protection by embracing several recently unloved investments—including natural resources and commodities.
Small-Cap Stocks: What’s Really Driving Returns?
US small-cap stocks have delivered strong returns in recent years. But value stocks have lagged the broader market. A closer look at what’s driving returns reveals some risks that deserve attention.
How to Avoid the Private Equity Liquidity Trap
Private equity funds continue to attract interest, despite rising deal valuations and high levels of leverage. We think there’s a way to get many of the benefits of private equity in public markets—without forfeiting liquidity.
Three Ways to Keep Your Head Above Water as Rates Rise
Volatility in yields got you down? Fearful of more rising rates ahead? Worried your bond portfolio will sink into the red? We have strategies that will help keep you dry, even if the waves get high.
Why It’s a Mistake to Cash Out of Bonds When Rates Rise
Bond investors are worried about rising rates in today’s environment. Many are protecting themselves by moving to cash or other very short investments. But is their “safe” choice putting them at risk?
Can Emerging Markets Defy a Stronger Dollar?
Turkey’s currency crisis has spooked emerging-market (EM) investors, especially amid growing concern about the strengthening US dollar. We think countries and companies in the developing world are actually much more resilient to a stronger dollar than in the past.
Will China Export Volatility as Equity Markets Open?
China’s markets are opening to the world—but be aware of the potential for unintended consequences. As more money flows into domestic Chinese stocks from abroad, more money is also flowing out of China, which may trigger volatility in regional markets.
Wary of High Yield? Three Reasons Not to Be
High-yield investors bracing for a downturn in 2018 can relax. By some metrics, high-yield companies have rarely looked better. The way we see it, investors who do their homework can still profit in this environment.
Beyond the FAANGs: Technology Stocks and Downside Protection
Technology stocks are widely seen as powerful return drivers—with a lot of volatility attached. But surprisingly, shares of many companies that enable the technology revolution can provide solid returns and even downside protection.
US Economic Growth: A Sustainability Story?
US stocks have boomed for nine years, supported by one of the longest economic expansions in the postwar period. Can this growth be sustained? Much depends on how the challenges of environmental and social sustainability are addressed.
Income...but at What Cost?
There are a lot of suggestions these days about where to get extra income, but less discussion about the cost attached to it. A diversified multi-asset approach can help—and provide additional growth potential. But how it’s designed matters.
Markets Unfazed by Rising Risk of Populism in Italy…for Now
While Italy’s bond yields have risen, investors have so far reacted relatively calmly to the rising probability of a populist Italian government. Based on the fundamentals, the potential downside scenario looms larger than markets seem willing to consider.
Should Investors Worry About US Earnings?
US companies reported stellar first-quarter profits this year. But some investors suspect that earnings growth has plateaued. Our research suggests that slowing earnings growth means nothing for stock prices.