Recent growth data have been muddled and subject to conflicting interpretations. There have been mixed signals from leading indicators and hard data and divergent readings across major economies.
Former President Donald Trump’s proposals for targeted tax breaks are resonating with battleground-state voters, who overwhelmingly approve of his ideas to eliminate taxes on tipped income and retirement benefits.
Most people see “blockchain” and “funds” in the same sentence and immediately think of pools of money betting on cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ether. That isn’t how Singapore sees the utility of distributed ledgers.
In a recent discussion with Adam Taggart via Thoughtful Money, we quickly touched on the similarities between the U.S. and Japanese monetary policies around the 11-minute mark. However, that discussion warrants a deeper dive. As we will review, Japan has much to tell us about the future of the U.S. economically.
After a decade of consistent outperformance, Japanese small caps began underperforming their large cap peers in 2018, a trend that has accelerated since 2023.
In this edition, Harold Evensky explores the challenges facing sustainable and active funds, the implications of the new DOL Fiduciary Rule, and the value of long-term performance projections. With candid observations and critical analysis--read on to gain perspective on navigating the complex world of investing, the importance of risk management, and the role of fiduciary advisors in securing your financial future.
Successful advisors are persuasive. They understand persuasion is critical to converting prospects into clients and keeping them as clients.
Since the pandemic, Wall Street strategists have repeatedly underestimated the performance of the US stock market in their annual projections, leading to a mad dash to boost their outlooks in the back end of the year.
The August S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ fell to 47.9 in August from 49.6 in July, indicating a modest deterioration in business conditions for a second straight month. The latest reading was just below the forecasted reading of 48.0 and is the index's lowest level of the year.
I asked my great friend and business partner David Bahnsen, who is about as politically wired as anyone and one of the truly great economic and investment minds, to reflect on the intersection of politics and markets. It is a quick, balanced, and reasonable read...
As I write this, gold continues to trade above $2,500 an ounce after surging past the psychologically important level for the first time ever in mid-August. For seasoned gold mining investors, this should be a moment of validation. After all, the yellow metal has long been seen as the ultimate hedge against economic uncertainty.
Establishing the optimal workplace retirement plan follows a pecking order, which starts by prioritizing plan design over investments. Our Mike Dullaghan discusses the process.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.32% in July and is up 4.1% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.16% month-over-month and up 1.6% year-over-year.
With the release of July's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.21% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.06% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 3.09% nominal and 0.58% real.
College students may want to secure legal documents to ensure their parents can access important information and help them in medical emergencies. Our Bill Cass highlights the key documents students can prepare before leaving for college.
Rules are made to be broken, so I would call this a 50 percent starting place in your discussion with the client. I certainly wouldn’t recommend only a 50 percent equity portfolio to a young client with a high willingness and need to take risk or the same to any client who had a low willingness and need to take risk.
HSAs are increasingly coming into use. They are a more tax-efficient means of investing, withdrawing money to cover large healthcare expenses, or simply preparing for higher medical costs in one’s later years.
Will 2030 DC plans perform better at preparing U.S. workers for retirement?
The healthcare sector offers a compelling mix of defensive characteristics and growth potential driven by innovation. It also features ample dispersion that presents stock pickers with an opportunity to parse potential leaders and laggards in pursuit of above-market return.
The most glaring uncertainties today, which contributed to early August seeing some of the largest market moves in the last several years, are the risks associated with the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate.
Elevated budget deficits imply growing US Treasury issuance. Receding demand from central banks could leave more price-sensitive buyers to pick up the slack. Who are the buyers of US government debt, and how is the market responding? In part two of our series, let’s examine Treasury market supply and demand.
Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas discusses his top ETF stories, industry “white space”, crypto ETFs, and much more. VettaFi’s Cinthia Murphy offers perspective on the future of ARK Invest and Cathie Wood.
The potential of AI in wealth management is undeniable, but realizing that potential requires more than just adopting the latest technology. By engaging advisors in the process, providing thorough training, and setting realistic expectations, firms can bridge the gap between C-suite optimism and frontline reality.
As tough as financial advisors claim to be, we still get nervous about “firing” clients, too. When we say “graduate,” that is our delicate way of handling an uncomfortable situation. It’s a cheap, but effective way to massage the misgivings that we have about terminating client relationships.
Over nearly three decades, I’ve been dedicated to the sport of running. For the last five years, I chased the elusive goal of qualifying for the Boston Marathon, my ultimate aspiration. It wasn’t until I sought the expertise of a professional coach that I finally achieved this dream.
If interest rates decrease over the next 12 months, as the market expects, long duration bonds could potentially provide equity-like returns for investors.
The last two years of high school can be particularly important as students approach the final college decision. Our Bill Cass highlights some action items for students and parents.
Active management can lead to high portfolio turnover and a higher tax bill. Wealth managers might feel that an active strategy could be too inefficient for clients who are sensitive to taxes. Find out how implementing a core-satellite portfolio with a direct indexing core may improve tax efficiency.
The “country” in this article is the wild and woolly market of small retirement savings plans (SRSPs) that have less than 100 participants. The “old men” are baby boomers who cannot afford to lose their lifetime savings. And the villain is the next stock market crash.
Given the inevitable ups and downs of the financial world, the joy of missing out on the frenzy might be a strong component of long-term financial and emotional wellbeing.
Looking back at the 14 Fed rate cycles since 1929, certain patterns emerge. Still, investors instead need to examine what factors are driving the Fed now.
While high rates can make borrowing costlier and slow down housing markets, they also open favorable opportunities in financial products like annuities. In other words, annuities are back and stronger than ever before!
Decisions made by the Treasury get much less attention than those made by the Federal Reserve, but they can be even more consequential for interest rates — and the entire US economy.
Most DC plan participants pursue retirement readiness unassisted, but few grasp what’s required, according to our latest survey.
Portfolio Manager Jeremy Sutch, CFA, and Chief Investment Officer Sean Taylor assess the issues besetting the region’s key markets—from domestic challenges to geopolitical headwinds—as well as their structural strengths, and whether prospects may brighten with the onset of a U.S. rate-cutting cycle.
Is private equity a problem? To what extent could this class of investment funds, which manages almost $9 trillion worldwide on behalf of everyone from wealthy individuals to California teachers, cause or propagate the next financial crisis?
Families may want to consider a comprehensive plan for college, including actions to take during the high school years, and consider how a 529 plan can help guide savings. Our Bill Cass offers details on college planning.
It is overly optimistic to think people will simply change if they don’t see and understand the hurtful nature of what they are doing.
For plan sponsors, the trend toward de-risking often leads to a simplification of the equity manager lineup in the return-seeking portion of the portfolio.
Baby Boomers likely won’t have time to recover from the next crash. Their loss is also their heirs’ loss. There’s $70 trillion in play. Baby boomers shouldn’t be greater fools.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said he’s skeptical that inflation will return to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, citing risks including deficit spending and “remilitarization of the world.”
Having been warned about the risk, investors now ask if the yen carry trade unwind is complete. Here's how far it might still go.
When two popular trades, such as buying US big tech stocks and selling the Japanese yen, are unraveling at the same time, investors naturally think they are somehow related.
Exaggerated concerns about the viability of Social Security continue to circulate like a persistent urban legend that refuses to die. They have only intensified during the political silly season leading up to the November elections.
On Monday morning, investors woke up to plunging stock markets as the “Yen Carry Trade” blew up. While media headlines suggested the sell-off was due to fears of a recession, slowing employment growth, or fears over Israel and Iran, such is not the case.
On Monday, global equities and digital assets underwent a dramatic selloff as the unwinding of the Japanese yen carry trade rattled markets. The S&P Global Broad Market Index (BMI), which measures the performance of more than 14,000 stocks around the world, retreated 3.3%, its worst trading day in over two years.
Municipal bonds maintained their summer strength and posted a second-consecutive month of positive performance in July.
When the Federal Reserve lowers its key short-term interest rate, the impact isn't uniform across the financial universe.
A large majority of economists surveyed see only a quarter-point decrease in interest rates coming in September — a finding that’s at odds with calls from some large Wall Street banks for a jumbo cut at the next meeting.
As the number of Americans retiring in other countries continues to grow, our Bill Cass shares five considerations for individuals planning to retire abroad.
Let's take a close look at July's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. The latest data shows that 82.8% of total employed workers are full-time (35+ hours) and 17.2% of total employed workers are part-time (<35 hours).
Hastily, investors have turned their worry about inflation into worry about a recession. The catalyst was Friday’s unexpectedly disappointing unemployment number.
Savvy advisors that blend classic prospecting methods with modern tech are not only reviving successful strategies from the past but are also setting the stage for sustainable future growth.
Take the market narrative with a grain of salt and look at the fundamentals in determining your outlook for the economy and financial markets. We ultimately believe this soft patch of data will prove to a be a ‘growth scare,’ not a ‘recession reality.’
Our monthly workforce analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for July. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, its highest level since October 2021. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 114K.
Household debt rose by $109 billion (0.62%) to $17.80 trillion in Q2 2024. The increase in debt this quarter was largely driven by credit card, mortgage, and auto loan balances.
While strategy provides direction, a strong culture is the foundation that supports and sustains an organization’s success. Culture influences every aspect of an organization and defines the purpose and values that guide the actions of employees.
On days like Monday’s dramatic selloff, which capped a three-week loss of $6.4 trillion in global wealth, personal finance experts usually have the same advice for wary retail investors:
Warren Buffett has been selling a lot of stock, and that revelation is inducing his many admirers to follow suit. His Omaha, Nebraska-based conglomerate, Berkshire Hathaway Inc., reported Saturday that it reduced several positions and slashed its stake in top-holding Apple Inc., a sign to some in markets that the “Oracle of Omaha” was bracing for deep stock-market declines.
Roth conversions, when executed with precision and strategic foresight, can significantly enhance a client’s financial plan.
Is this the beginning of the inevitable bear, where these then-most-valuable stocks could get clobbered? Here’s what history teaches us about the current concentrated market and the current correction.
Dollar cost averaging involves committing money to the stock market gradually, rather than all at once. This time spent out of the market leads to lower returns, but also to commensurately lower risk.
De Leus and Gijsels, both originating in the world of institutional brokerage identify the five principal trends affecting investments in the near future. The two take turns writing chapters so that the book is a straight man/funnyman show, with the straight man providing mostly sound, conventional analysis and the funnyman interviewing dead economists and Fed chairmen not yet born.
The Federal Reserve is between the Rock of Gibraltar and the Rocky Mountains. The data they use to explain their policy choices is in apparent transition. A self-aware analyst, seeing the conflicting data, knows that the right policy choice will only be understood in hindsight.
The members of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) are probably not intimately familiar with Taylor Swift’s back catalogue. If they were, Swift’s hit “Cruel Summer” may have been ringing in their ears when cutting rates today for the first time since March 2020.
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses factors behind gold’s impressive performance year to date.
Jeff and Ron discuss the state of the economy, inflation, the bond and stock markets, and they outline, in broad terms, their current investments.
Private equity has been in the news frequently in the last few weeks, and not in a good way.
Which financial assets a central bank should buy and sell is hardly a novel question. Historically, the US Federal Reserve has focused on shorter-term Treasury securities, but quantitative easing had the Fed buying mortgage securities and quality commercial paper in significant quantities. More generally, central banks often hold gold and foreign currencies.
Overly optimistic investor expectations of market returns may be a problem.
This article examines both breaches at AT&T, discusses how the data can be used to perpetrate detailed deep fakes, and shares how you can advise your clients and staff to protect your clients’ investments.
The US Department of Labor (DOL) offers eight tips for advisors to use to review target-date funds. Our Mike Dullaghan illustrates how to use the DOL tips in preparation for plan review season.
Baby boomers need to be concerned about worst cases because the rest of their lives could be ruined by the next crash, and with $70 trillion at risk the stakes are high for them and their heirs. So rather than averages, let’s look at worst cases. That’s what baby boomers need to protect against.
Progress toward a goal usually isn’t linear. The first 50% isn’t too bad, the next 40% is harder, and the last 10% consumes most of the effort and resources. Business strategists call this the “last mile” problem… and it applies to inflation, too.
In June, Capital Group added seven new actively managed products. Its executives were in New York last week to ring the NYSE closing bell.
It's been another strong first half for the U.S. ETF industry, with overall flows set to challenge or surpass historic records.
Increasing the tax efficiency of a retiree’s income portfolio with the NEOS ETF suite may offer several benefits.
With a recent IRS announcement, heirs now have clarity on the 10-year rule for distributions from inherited retirement accounts. Our Bill Cass details the final regulations.
Qraft Technologies took AI-driven investment products to the next level with the launch of the LG-QRAFT AI-Powered U.S. Large Cap Core ETF (LQAI) in November of 2023. The firm partnered with LG AI Research, an artificial intelligence (AI) research hub of South Korea's LG Group, to create LQAI.
Experts from the third-largest ETF manager by AUM make their predictions regarding active, retail, and inheritances.
Financial advisors are increasingly turning to social media platforms to expand their client base. But in today’s rapidly evolving digital landscape, the traditional marketing funnel model – comprising awareness, engagement, and conversion stages – often falls short when applied to these platforms.
A recent Financial Times opinion piece laid out how illiquidity makes private equity hazardous for investors. The Bank of England’s Nathanaël Benjamin warns private equity illiquidity is a systemic risk to the financial system.
The mortgage lock-in effect ended in the Levin household shortly before my in-laws arrived from Mexico to celebrate my daughter’s birthday at our home in the Miami area. As usual, my wife and I had no place to put them, and they had to get a room at a Courtyard Marriott.
Fed speakers will deny any notion that its monetary policy aims in part to help the government fund her debts. Regardless of what they say, we are already in an age of fiscal dominance. Monetary policy must consider the nation’s debt situation.
The inflation picture is getting better but we still have too much of it. Inflation is going but not gone, and probably won’t be gone anytime soon. Today I’ll tell you why.
For more than two years, inflation has eclipsed everything else at the Federal Reserve. In a shift eagerly awaited by global markets, that’s poised to change.
In the post-pandemic fiscal landscape, government debt trajectories may be volatile, but appear broadly sustainable.
Diverse stakeholders shared perspectives at AB’s Advancing Retirement Income symposium.
The initiation of the excessive deficit procedure will hinder European unity.
It’s been clear since the fall of 2022 that the housing market needed lower interest rates to fix many of its problems including a lack of affordability for buyers, the mortgage rate lock-in dynamic for homeowners, and reduced activity for companies ranging from Home Depot Inc. and Lowe’s Cos. to suppliers of building materials.
Retirement Income
Back to School: Macro Cliff Notes and a Look Ahead
Recent growth data have been muddled and subject to conflicting interpretations. There have been mixed signals from leading indicators and hard data and divergent readings across major economies.
Voters Love No Tax on Tips, But Split Over $25,000 Housing Help
Former President Donald Trump’s proposals for targeted tax breaks are resonating with battleground-state voters, who overwhelmingly approve of his ideas to eliminate taxes on tipped income and retirement benefits.
Why Singapore Is Bringing Blockchain Into Mutual Funds
Most people see “blockchain” and “funds” in the same sentence and immediately think of pools of money betting on cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ether. That isn’t how Singapore sees the utility of distributed ledgers.
Japanese Style Policies And The Future Of America
In a recent discussion with Adam Taggart via Thoughtful Money, we quickly touched on the similarities between the U.S. and Japanese monetary policies around the 11-minute mark. However, that discussion warrants a deeper dive. As we will review, Japan has much to tell us about the future of the U.S. economically.
Small Wonders: Overlooked Japan Small Caps Poised for Resurgence
After a decade of consistent outperformance, Japanese small caps began underperforming their large cap peers in 2018, a trend that has accelerated since 2023.
Navigating the Investment Landscape: Insights and Warnings
In this edition, Harold Evensky explores the challenges facing sustainable and active funds, the implications of the new DOL Fiduciary Rule, and the value of long-term performance projections. With candid observations and critical analysis--read on to gain perspective on navigating the complex world of investing, the importance of risk management, and the role of fiduciary advisors in securing your financial future.
Evidence-Based Persuasion Secrets
Successful advisors are persuasive. They understand persuasion is critical to converting prospects into clients and keeping them as clients.
Wall Street Strategists Face Their Own Short Squeeze
Since the pandemic, Wall Street strategists have repeatedly underestimated the performance of the US stock market in their annual projections, leading to a mad dash to boost their outlooks in the back end of the year.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Lowest Level of 2024
The August S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ fell to 47.9 in August from 49.6 in July, indicating a modest deterioration in business conditions for a second straight month. The latest reading was just below the forecasted reading of 48.0 and is the index's lowest level of the year.
Your Portfolio and the Election
I asked my great friend and business partner David Bahnsen, who is about as politically wired as anyone and one of the truly great economic and investment minds, to reflect on the intersection of politics and markets. It is a quick, balanced, and reasonable read...
Why Gold Stocks Could Be a Contrarian Investor’s Dream Right Now
As I write this, gold continues to trade above $2,500 an ounce after surging past the psychologically important level for the first time ever in mid-August. For seasoned gold mining investors, this should be a moment of validation. After all, the yellow metal has long been seen as the ultimate hedge against economic uncertainty.
The Pecking Order of 401(K) Plan Design: A Bird’s Eye View
Establishing the optimal workplace retirement plan follows a pecking order, which starts by prioritizing plan design over investments. Our Mike Dullaghan discusses the process.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income Up 0.2% in July
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.32% in July and is up 4.1% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.16% month-over-month and up 1.6% year-over-year.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Up 0.1% in July
With the release of July's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.21% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.06% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 3.09% nominal and 0.58% real.
Consider Packing a Legal Safety Net Before Students Leave for College
College students may want to secure legal documents to ensure their parents can access important information and help them in medical emergencies. Our Bill Cass highlights the key documents students can prepare before leaving for college.
The 50 Percent Rule
Rules are made to be broken, so I would call this a 50 percent starting place in your discussion with the client. I certainly wouldn’t recommend only a 50 percent equity portfolio to a young client with a high willingness and need to take risk or the same to any client who had a low willingness and need to take risk.
How to Use HSAs for Tax-Advantaged Savings, Investments
HSAs are increasingly coming into use. They are a more tax-efficient means of investing, withdrawing money to cover large healthcare expenses, or simply preparing for higher medical costs in one’s later years.
8 Ways DC Plans Are Likely to Change by 2030
Will 2030 DC plans perform better at preparing U.S. workers for retirement?
Where It Pays to Get Choosy: A Case Study in Stock Selection
The healthcare sector offers a compelling mix of defensive characteristics and growth potential driven by innovation. It also features ample dispersion that presents stock pickers with an opportunity to parse potential leaders and laggards in pursuit of above-market return.
Let’s Get Real (Rates)!
The most glaring uncertainties today, which contributed to early August seeing some of the largest market moves in the last several years, are the risks associated with the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate.
Gradually, then Suddenly: Financing the Nation’s Growing Debt
Elevated budget deficits imply growing US Treasury issuance. Receding demand from central banks could leave more price-sensitive buyers to pick up the slack. Who are the buyers of US government debt, and how is the market responding? In part two of our series, let’s examine Treasury market supply and demand.
Talking ETFs with Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas
Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas discusses his top ETF stories, industry “white space”, crypto ETFs, and much more. VettaFi’s Cinthia Murphy offers perspective on the future of ARK Invest and Cathie Wood.
Bridging the AI Confidence Gap Between the C-Suite and Advisors
The potential of AI in wealth management is undeniable, but realizing that potential requires more than just adopting the latest technology. By engaging advisors in the process, providing thorough training, and setting realistic expectations, firms can bridge the gap between C-suite optimism and frontline reality.
How Do You Decide to “Graduate” a Client?
As tough as financial advisors claim to be, we still get nervous about “firing” clients, too. When we say “graduate,” that is our delicate way of handling an uncomfortable situation. It’s a cheap, but effective way to massage the misgivings that we have about terminating client relationships.
Why Use Model Portfolios? So Advisors Can Focus on What Matters Most
Over nearly three decades, I’ve been dedicated to the sport of running. For the last five years, I chased the elusive goal of qualifying for the Boston Marathon, my ultimate aspiration. It wasn’t until I sought the expertise of a professional coach that I finally achieved this dream.
Are Brighter Days in Store for Bond Investors?
If interest rates decrease over the next 12 months, as the market expects, long duration bonds could potentially provide equity-like returns for investors.
College-Bound High School Juniors and Seniors Focus On a Strong Finish
The last two years of high school can be particularly important as students approach the final college decision. Our Bill Cass highlights some action items for students and parents.
Strengthen Your Client’s Core with Direct Indexing
Active management can lead to high portfolio turnover and a higher tax bill. Wealth managers might feel that an active strategy could be too inefficient for clients who are sensitive to taxes. Find out how implementing a core-satellite portfolio with a direct indexing core may improve tax efficiency.
No Country for Baby Boomers
The “country” in this article is the wild and woolly market of small retirement savings plans (SRSPs) that have less than 100 participants. The “old men” are baby boomers who cannot afford to lose their lifetime savings. And the villain is the next stock market crash.
The Joy of Missing Out on Short-Term Investing Anxiety
Given the inevitable ups and downs of the financial world, the joy of missing out on the frenzy might be a strong component of long-term financial and emotional wellbeing.
What Past Fed Rate Cycles Can Tell Us
Looking back at the 14 Fed rate cycles since 1929, certain patterns emerge. Still, investors instead need to examine what factors are driving the Fed now.
Fed to Cut Rates? Secure 17-Year High Annuity Rates Now
While high rates can make borrowing costlier and slow down housing markets, they also open favorable opportunities in financial products like annuities. In other words, annuities are back and stronger than ever before!
How the Treasury Is More Powerful Than the Fed
Decisions made by the Treasury get much less attention than those made by the Federal Reserve, but they can be even more consequential for interest rates — and the entire US economy.
Should Retirement Income Planning Be “Do It Yourself” or “Just Do It for Me”?
Most DC plan participants pursue retirement readiness unassisted, but few grasp what’s required, according to our latest survey.
Latin America's Long-Term Potential
Portfolio Manager Jeremy Sutch, CFA, and Chief Investment Officer Sean Taylor assess the issues besetting the region’s key markets—from domestic challenges to geopolitical headwinds—as well as their structural strengths, and whether prospects may brighten with the onset of a U.S. rate-cutting cycle.
Is Private Equity a Threat? We Need a Better Answer
Is private equity a problem? To what extent could this class of investment funds, which manages almost $9 trillion worldwide on behalf of everyone from wealthy individuals to California teachers, cause or propagate the next financial crisis?
Kick Off Your College Planning During the First Two Years of High School
Families may want to consider a comprehensive plan for college, including actions to take during the high school years, and consider how a 529 plan can help guide savings. Our Bill Cass offers details on college planning.
Clear Communications Vital to Overcoming Obstacles
It is overly optimistic to think people will simply change if they don’t see and understand the hurtful nature of what they are doing.
De-Risking? Get Your Transition Management Plan in Place First
For plan sponsors, the trend toward de-risking often leads to a simplification of the equity manager lineup in the return-seeking portion of the portfolio.
Baby Boomer Greater Fools Risk Hard Crash
Baby Boomers likely won’t have time to recover from the next crash. Their loss is also their heirs’ loss. There’s $70 trillion in play. Baby boomers shouldn’t be greater fools.
Dimon Says He’s Skeptical Inflation Will Return to Fed’s 2% Target
JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said he’s skeptical that inflation will return to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, citing risks including deficit spending and “remilitarization of the world.”
Carry Trade Unwind: Is It Really Over?
Having been warned about the risk, investors now ask if the yen carry trade unwind is complete. Here's how far it might still go.
How Big Is the Yen Carry Trade, Really?
When two popular trades, such as buying US big tech stocks and selling the Japanese yen, are unraveling at the same time, investors naturally think they are somehow related.
Social Security Is Going Broke! (Just Like the Zombie Apocalypse Is Coming)
Exaggerated concerns about the viability of Social Security continue to circulate like a persistent urban legend that refuses to die. They have only intensified during the political silly season leading up to the November elections.
Yen Carry Trade Blows Up Sparking Global Sell-Off
On Monday morning, investors woke up to plunging stock markets as the “Yen Carry Trade” blew up. While media headlines suggested the sell-off was due to fears of a recession, slowing employment growth, or fears over Israel and Iran, such is not the case.
Understanding the Yen Carry Trade Impact on World Markets
On Monday, global equities and digital assets underwent a dramatic selloff as the unwinding of the Japanese yen carry trade rattled markets. The S&P Global Broad Market Index (BMI), which measures the performance of more than 14,000 stocks around the world, retreated 3.3%, its worst trading day in over two years.
Active Management Will Drive Muni Returns in 2024
Municipal bonds maintained their summer strength and posted a second-consecutive month of positive performance in July.
What Declining Interest Rates Could Mean for You
When the Federal Reserve lowers its key short-term interest rate, the impact isn't uniform across the financial universe.
Fed Seen Rejecting Calls for Jumbo Rate Cut in Economist Survey
A large majority of economists surveyed see only a quarter-point decrease in interest rates coming in September — a finding that’s at odds with calls from some large Wall Street banks for a jumbo cut at the next meeting.
From Dreaming to Living: What You Need to Know About Retiring Abroad
As the number of Americans retiring in other countries continues to grow, our Bill Cass shares five considerations for individuals planning to retire abroad.
A Closer Look at Full-time and Part-time Employment
Let's take a close look at July's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. The latest data shows that 82.8% of total employed workers are full-time (35+ hours) and 17.2% of total employed workers are part-time (<35 hours).
Heightened Volatility
Hastily, investors have turned their worry about inflation into worry about a recession. The catalyst was Friday’s unexpectedly disappointing unemployment number.
Classic Rewind: How RIA Prospecting Tactics From the Past Are Making a Comeback
Savvy advisors that blend classic prospecting methods with modern tech are not only reviving successful strategies from the past but are also setting the stage for sustainable future growth.
Putting the Recent Equity Weakness Into Perspective
Take the market narrative with a grain of salt and look at the fundamentals in determining your outlook for the economy and financial markets. We ultimately believe this soft patch of data will prove to a be a ‘growth scare,’ not a ‘recession reality.’
U.S. Workforce Analysis: July 2024
Our monthly workforce analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for July. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, its highest level since October 2021. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 114K.
Household Debt Rises to $17.80 Trillion in Q2
Household debt rose by $109 billion (0.62%) to $17.80 trillion in Q2 2024. The increase in debt this quarter was largely driven by credit card, mortgage, and auto loan balances.
Assessing Culture in the Evaluation of Investment Strategies
While strategy provides direction, a strong culture is the foundation that supports and sustains an organization’s success. Culture influences every aspect of an organization and defines the purpose and values that guide the actions of employees.
What Bankers Say You Should (and Shouldn’t) Do When Markets Crash
On days like Monday’s dramatic selloff, which capped a three-week loss of $6.4 trillion in global wealth, personal finance experts usually have the same advice for wary retail investors:
Buffett's $277 Billion Cash Hoard After Selling Apple Is a Warning
Warren Buffett has been selling a lot of stock, and that revelation is inducing his many admirers to follow suit. His Omaha, Nebraska-based conglomerate, Berkshire Hathaway Inc., reported Saturday that it reduced several positions and slashed its stake in top-holding Apple Inc., a sign to some in markets that the “Oracle of Omaha” was bracing for deep stock-market declines.
Simplifying Roth Conversions: Insights for Financial Advisors
Roth conversions, when executed with precision and strategic foresight, can significantly enhance a client’s financial plan.
Is the Stock Market Too Concentrated?
Is this the beginning of the inevitable bear, where these then-most-valuable stocks could get clobbered? Here’s what history teaches us about the current concentrated market and the current correction.
Does Dollar Cost Averaging Affect Investment Results?
Dollar cost averaging involves committing money to the stock market gradually, rather than all at once. This time spent out of the market leads to lower returns, but also to commensurately lower risk.
A Straight Man and a Funnyman Explain the World Economy
De Leus and Gijsels, both originating in the world of institutional brokerage identify the five principal trends affecting investments in the near future. The two take turns writing chapters so that the book is a straight man/funnyman show, with the straight man providing mostly sound, conventional analysis and the funnyman interviewing dead economists and Fed chairmen not yet born.
The Hunger Games: The Fed Version
The Federal Reserve is between the Rock of Gibraltar and the Rocky Mountains. The data they use to explain their policy choices is in apparent transition. A self-aware analyst, seeing the conflicting data, knows that the right policy choice will only be understood in hindsight.
Bank of England Cuts Rates Despite Taylor Swift Inflation Effect
The members of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) are probably not intimately familiar with Taylor Swift’s back catalogue. If they were, Swift’s hit “Cruel Summer” may have been ringing in their ears when cutting rates today for the first time since March 2020.
Gold Shines, Defying Historical Relationships
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses factors behind gold’s impressive performance year to date.
Muhlenkamp & Company Quarterly Letter – July 2024
Jeff and Ron discuss the state of the economy, inflation, the bond and stock markets, and they outline, in broad terms, their current investments.
Pension Funds Are Hooked on Private Equity, No Matter the Risks
Private equity has been in the news frequently in the last few weeks, and not in a good way.
Trump Likes the Idea of a Federal Bitcoin Reserve. Don’t Laugh
Which financial assets a central bank should buy and sell is hardly a novel question. Historically, the US Federal Reserve has focused on shorter-term Treasury securities, but quantitative easing had the Fed buying mortgage securities and quality commercial paper in significant quantities. More generally, central banks often hold gold and foreign currencies.
Overly Optimistic Investors Face Potential Disappointment
Overly optimistic investor expectations of market returns may be a problem.
The AT&T Data Breach: How Advisors Can Protect Their Firm and Their Clients
This article examines both breaches at AT&T, discusses how the data can be used to perpetrate detailed deep fakes, and shares how you can advise your clients and staff to protect your clients’ investments.
Maximizing 401(k) Plans: How Financial Advisors Can leverage the DOL’s Target-Date Tips
The US Department of Labor (DOL) offers eight tips for advisors to use to review target-date funds. Our Mike Dullaghan illustrates how to use the DOL tips in preparation for plan review season.
Baby Boomers Better Get Out of the Stock Market Now
Baby boomers need to be concerned about worst cases because the rest of their lives could be ruined by the next crash, and with $70 trillion at risk the stakes are high for them and their heirs. So rather than averages, let’s look at worst cases. That’s what baby boomers need to protect against.
A Sticky Last Mile
Progress toward a goal usually isn’t linear. The first 50% isn’t too bad, the next 40% is harder, and the last 10% consumes most of the effort and resources. Business strategists call this the “last mile” problem… and it applies to inflation, too.
Newer Active ETFs From Capital Group Offer More Conservative Approach
In June, Capital Group added seven new actively managed products. Its executives were in New York last week to ring the NYSE closing bell.
U.S. ETF Flows: Investors Are Getting Polarized
It's been another strong first half for the U.S. ETF industry, with overall flows set to challenge or surpass historic records.
How to Augment Your Retirement Income for Tax Efficiency
Increasing the tax efficiency of a retiree’s income portfolio with the NEOS ETF suite may offer several benefits.
Final Regulations Deliver Clarity on 10-Year Rule
With a recent IRS announcement, heirs now have clarity on the 10-year rule for distributions from inherited retirement accounts. Our Bill Cass details the final regulations.
Qraft Teams With LG AI Research to Offer Pioneering AI-Powered ETF
Qraft Technologies took AI-driven investment products to the next level with the launch of the LG-QRAFT AI-Powered U.S. Large Cap Core ETF (LQAI) in November of 2023. The firm partnered with LG AI Research, an artificial intelligence (AI) research hub of South Korea's LG Group, to create LQAI.
State Street: Active, Retail, Inheritances to Drive Next $10T in ETF Assets
Experts from the third-largest ETF manager by AUM make their predictions regarding active, retail, and inheritances.
Six Reasons to Shift from Traditional Marketing Funnels, and What to Do Instead
Financial advisors are increasingly turning to social media platforms to expand their client base. But in today’s rapidly evolving digital landscape, the traditional marketing funnel model – comprising awareness, engagement, and conversion stages – often falls short when applied to these platforms.
Private Equity Is Illiquid by Design. Why Worry About It?
A recent Financial Times opinion piece laid out how illiquidity makes private equity hazardous for investors. The Bank of England’s Nathanaël Benjamin warns private equity illiquidity is a systemic risk to the financial system.
I Gave Up a 2.6% Mortgage to Upgrade. Will I Regret It?
The mortgage lock-in effect ended in the Levin household shortly before my in-laws arrived from Mexico to celebrate my daughter’s birthday at our home in the Miami area. As usual, my wife and I had no place to put them, and they had to get a room at a Courtyard Marriott.
Fiscal Dominance Is Here
Fed speakers will deny any notion that its monetary policy aims in part to help the government fund her debts. Regardless of what they say, we are already in an age of fiscal dominance. Monetary policy must consider the nation’s debt situation.
Going, Not Gone
The inflation picture is getting better but we still have too much of it. Inflation is going but not gone, and probably won’t be gone anytime soon. Today I’ll tell you why.
Fed Prepares for September Cut as Powell Shifts Focus to Jobs
For more than two years, inflation has eclipsed everything else at the Federal Reserve. In a shift eagerly awaited by global markets, that’s poised to change.
Developed Market Public Debt: Risks and Realities
In the post-pandemic fiscal landscape, government debt trajectories may be volatile, but appear broadly sustainable.
Charting a Collective Path Forward on Retirement Income
Diverse stakeholders shared perspectives at AB’s Advancing Retirement Income symposium.
Europe Is Dealing With Deficits
The initiation of the excessive deficit procedure will hinder European unity.
The Housing Market Will Tell the Fed How Much to Cut Rates
It’s been clear since the fall of 2022 that the housing market needed lower interest rates to fix many of its problems including a lack of affordability for buyers, the mortgage rate lock-in dynamic for homeowners, and reduced activity for companies ranging from Home Depot Inc. and Lowe’s Cos. to suppliers of building materials.