Eight of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through July 7, 2025.
June's employment report showed that 82.8% of total employed workers were full-time (35+ hours) and 17.2% of total employed workers were part-time (<35 hours).
U.S. stocks are no longer the best-performing asset class this year. Gold and foreign stocks are the best performers.
Multiple jobholders accounted for 5.3% of civilian employment in June.
In part 2 of this series, this article looks past the data center operators and focuses on the natural gas pipelines and the manufacturers of natural gas power plant equipment.
Last week, the U.S. labor market took center stage, delivering conflicting signals. The S&P 500 reached many record highs during the shortened trading week.
In last week’s letter, I referenced Torsten Sløk’s excellent midyear outlook for Apollo Global Management. Today I’ll share some longer quotes which will, I hope, help you visualize where the economy is headed.
The moving average for the per-capita light vehicle sales series peaked in August 1978. Almost 50 years later, it is down nearly 37% from that peak.
President Donald Trump plans to announce trade deals and deliver tariff warnings on Monday, as countries negotiated through the weekend to avoid the highest punitive measures on their exports to the US before a Wednesday deadline.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is leading a potential transaction for Gray Media Inc. to help the company refinance some of its existing debt, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
BlackRock Inc. is considering a sale of its stake in the leasing rights to Saudi Aramco’s natural-gas pipeline network back to the energy giant, according to people familiar with the matter.
The yield on the 10-year note ended July 3, 2025 at 4.35%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.88% and the 30-year note ended at 4.86%.
Tariffs have been the dominant theme in economic policy this year. While President Trump has long held protectionist views, his administration’s approach to international commerce has been more belligerent than was seen in his first term.
The bull market is alive and well, even amid widespread talk of the “death of U.S. exceptionalism.
This quarter might best be described as the “Big Beautiful Bounce”. Or the BBB. History has proven time and time again that markets do come back – but this was a historically quick market turnaround.
From investing to economics to politics, patterns emerge, lessons resurface and the past becomes a powerful guide for navigating today’s unpredictable landscape. Timing, perspective and adaptability can make all the difference in managing the complexities of modern markets.
As the global economy navigates a complex landscape, investors are left wondering: are they right to be optimistic or are they being complacent? This article from Franklin Templeton Institute explores the signs of resilience as well as numerous risks.
Though some urge rate cuts, doing that won't necessarily reduce borrowing costs if the market doesn't agree with the timing. It could raise inflation fears, hurting Treasuries.
Do you feel like you spend more and more money every month but get less and less for it? That’s because you are.
Sharp U.S. policy shift and elevated uncertainty reflect an evolution of the new macro regime. What matters: getting a grip on uncertainty by identifying its core features.
The Senate has approved its own version of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" tax-and-spending plan. Here's how it differs from the version the House passed in May, and what's next.
Value investing has long been out of favor in US stocks and last quarter was no different, as an index of beaten-down shares badly trailed the broader market’s furious rally.
As President Donald Trump and his advisers begin weighing replacements for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, they’re running into one significant complication: It’s not clear that Powell will leave the US central bank next year.
Wells Fargo & Co. is ramping up buying top-rated collateralized loan obligations, after largely staying away from the $1.3 trillion market following interest rate hikes in 2022, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
Some say private credit hasn’t been tested. We disagree…and stress can sharpen the senses.
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, co-founder of FAST Graphs, aka Mr. Valuation discusses 10 subscriber-requested stocks that you asked to see, highlighting how FAST Graphs simplifies stock analysis. He reviews companies like AES Corporation, Amgen, Alibaba, and Chipotle, showing how FAST Graphs quickly reveals key data, such as earnings growth, dividend history, and valuation.
The June U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 52.9, above the 52.8 forecast. The reading marks the 29th consecutive month of expansion but was a slight slow down from May's 53.7 reading.
AstraZeneca Plc’s Chief Executive Officer Pascal Soriot wants to move the drugmaker’s stock listing to the US, the Times reported, in what would be another sign of the UK’s waning status as a magnet for global capital.
Treasuries tumbled after a stronger-than-expected jobs report for June prompted traders to exit bets on an interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month.
If the Trump administration’s tariff policies result in higher overall inflation, a scenario that will play out in the coming weeks, the question is who will pay for it.
With mortgage rates still near 7%, even relatively wealthy households are choosing to rent rather than buy, and it’s easy to understand why.
Forget Tesla for a moment. Just imagine an anonymous company with the following characteristics.
The U.S. trade deficit expanded nearly 19% to -$71.5B, as exports declined more than imports declined.
Proposed regulatory changes involving the Supplementary Leverage Ratio may have benefits for both large banks and the Treasury market.
Equity markets continued to march higher in June, seemingly unfazed by heightened Middle East tensions (which were short-lived) and the looming July 8 deadline for the administration’s pause on reciprocal tariffs.
We began the year optimistic that an environment of slowing growth, disinflation and easier monetary policy would be favorable for fixed income markets. Now at midyear, we maintain that view, while acknowledging that policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks may likely result in continued volatility.
It has been over six months since the FOMC has made a change to the Fed Funds rate. While the debate continues as to when the next cut will be, market consensus (per Bloomberg calculations) is currently for a 25 basis point cut in September.
An economy cannot subsist on services alone.
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Global Chief Investment Strategist Paul Eitelman explored key drivers behind the strong performance in markets. He also provided an update on a proposed U.S. tax measure.
The US economy is important, but it’s not the only one in a global approach.
When the Fed increased the M2 money supply by over 40% during the COVID crisis, our instinct was that the implications would extend far beyond a temporary boost to the U.S. stock market and higher inflation. That intuition is proving accurate. We’re now seeing the long-term ripple effects play out in real time across multiple asset classes and global markets.
Inflation remains a hot topic, directly impacting everything from your grocery bill to interest rates. As of May 2025, two key inflation gauges — the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — show that prices are still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with the core PCE at 2.7% and core CPI at 2.8%.
This chart series features an overlay of four major secular bear markets: the Crash of 1929, the Oil Embargo of 1973, the Tech Bubble, and the Financial Crisis. The numbers are through the June 30, 2025 close.
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the June 2025 close.
For good reasons, many investors have a love-hate relationship with commodity investments. Operationally, the annoying K-1 form complicates tax filing, although thankfully the industry has started to launch “no K-1” funds.
Your firm's culture should reflect your values and your mission.
This year’s formidable challenges have clarified strategic lessons for equity investors to apply in the coming months
Investors may be tempted to imagine how much higher the S&P 500 Index would be if three of its most influential stocks weren’t lagging behind.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. is developing a new service to tokenize carbon credits and is partnering with a trio of carbon companies for an initial trial.
Treasuries are set for a second daily drop heading into a double whammy of labor data, following an unexpected jump in US job opening numbers.
Netflix Inc. investors face a dilemma: Continue to bet on a stock that has delivered best-in-class returns over the past year or reconsider shares that increasingly look like they’re priced for perfection.
Markets notched fresh all-time highs on Friday with a positive tone and geopolitical outlook. Swift retreat in oil back to pre-strike levels, combined with friendlier NATO negotiations and de-escalated fighting in Iran restored risk appetite.
In a speculative market chasing AI and high beta, this report makes the case for the steady power of compounding dividends reminding investors that, especially late in the cycle, a bird in the hand may truly be worth two in the bush.
A potential conflict with Iran has consistently appeared in our monthly Market Risk Monitor for over two years. Now that risk has materialized. Our equity portfolio managers assess the implications for global markets.
With the market roughly at the midpoint for 2025, investors and advisors are still assessing how changing macroeconomic conditions could affect their fixed income portfolio.
Easing trade tensions and hopes the Senate could pass a budget gave stocks an early lift after Friday's record highs. The week is packed with jobs news and Powell talks tomorrow.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney handed US President Donald Trump a win in the hope of making bigger gains in trade negotiations.
Gas prices saw their steepest decline in nearly two months last week. As of June 30th, the price of regular and premium gas were each down 5 cents from the previous week.
The words you use are not just tools for communication; they’re signals. Signals that tell your prospects whether you’re someone they can trust or someone they should avoid.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 49.0 in June, indicating contraction in U.S. manufacturing for a fourth straight month. The latest reading was above the forecast of 48.8.
U.S. manufacturing expanded for the sixth consecutive month in June, with the S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI reaching a three-year high of 52.9. This was higher than the forecast of 52.0. However, tariffs continued to affect the sector, leading to increased inventory buildup and a sharp acceleration in inflation.
Almost everything said about Tesla Inc. these days ranges from bad to worse.
Just a few decades ago, Europe led the world in adopting nuclear. It relied on the technology for more than 30% of its electricity and accounted for more than 40% of global production.
The 10-year Treasury yield has experienced dramatic fluctuations, ranging from a peak of 15.68% in October 1981, during the height of the Volcker era, to a historic low of 0.55% in August 2020, amidst the economic uncertainty of the pandemic. At the end of June 2025, the weekly average stood at 4.30%.
Readers of a certain age will no doubt recall President Ronald Reagan launching one of the most ambitious military buildups in American history.
Market breadth can help gauge strength or weakness. Methods include tracking the number of stocks trading above or below moving averages or making new highs or lows.
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
Thematic investing has experienced cycles of popularity over time. In less cautious market environments, investors often turn their attention to ambitious ideas — such as disruptive technologies or other transformative future trends — looking beyond traditional equity ETFs.
Market uncertainty needs a tailor-made approach to fixed income for advisors to construct the ideal portfolio for their clients. There’s an easier solution that encompasses an active management approach, various income sources, and low cost. It’s the Vanguard Multi-Sector Income Bond ETF (VGMS).
Valid until the market close on July 31, 2025
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
Stocks are wrapping up a stellar quarter at all-time highs amid signs of progress in US trade talks while hopes the Federal Reserve will resume its rate cuts drove Treasuries toward their biggest first-half stretch in five years. The dollar eyed its longest monthly slide since 2017.
Thematic ETFs are making a comeback, and one theme in particular dominates conversation. Artificial Intelligence remains top of mind for investors. TMX VettaFi’s Zeno Mercer and Todd Rosenbluth discussed the disruptive technology.
Despite concerns regarding the electrical power grid, there are solutions to meet the surge in AI-driven energy demand. For example, nuclear energy is making a comeback.
One of the enduring challenges of portfolio management is the inability to follow all news flow relevant to portfolio positions. AI and cloud-based workflows are helping us overcome this problem.One of the enduring challenges of portfolio management is the inability to follow all news flow relevant to portfolio positions. AI and cloud-based workflows are helping us overcome this problem.%MCEPASTEBIN%
The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for June. The general business activity index rose for a second straight month but remained in negative territory at -12.7. This marks the fifth straight month of worsening business conditions.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated it wouldn’t make sense for the government to ramp up sales of longer-term securities given where yields are today, though he held out hope that interest rates across maturities will be falling as inflation slows.
The S&P 500 Index just rallied back to all-time highs, brushing off the April tariff shock, the conflict with Iran and the insidious and persistent increase in US continuing jobless claims.
British oil and gas giant Shell Plc has quashed a rumor: It’s not buying BP Plc. But last week’s forceful denial doesn’t address why the M&A chatter gained so much traction, which has less to do with the parlous state of BP than with Shell itself.
The digital assets platform Republic is touting plans to give retail investors access to the world’s hottest private companies starting with Elon Musk’s SpaceX via mirror tokens.
Alphabet Inc.’s Google has agreed to purchase 200 megawatts of power from Commonwealth Fusion Systems’ planned first commercial plant, which is expected to begin delivering electricity to the grid in the early 2030s.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business Barometer) fell for a third straight month to its lowest level since January. The index inched down to 40.4 in June from 40.5 in May, falling short of the 42.7 forecast.
The Fed’s credibility rests not on never being wrong, but on being adaptive and forward-looking. Inflation has cooled, wage growth has moderated, and economic momentum is slowing. Now is the time for the Fed to focus not on headline fears, but on real-time data.
The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of June 20th, the index was at 6.875, down 1.881 from the previous week, with 3 of the 6 components in expansion territory.
Until recently, commercial real estate appeared poised for a long-awaited rebound. However, 2025 has revealed a new reality: Uncertainty has become structural.
It’s often said there are only two certainties in life: death and taxes. However, the tax landscape may become somewhat murkier, as the recently passed U.S. House budget bill may potentially lead to some non-U.S. investors paying more taxes than previously anticipated.
Until that US government debt-crisis moment arrives, which we will get through, things will muddle along.
The US apartment-building boom that began about a decade ago appears to have ended last year, but it did so with a bang. It was the biggest year for apartment completions since 1986 and the biggest year ever for apartments in large buildings — that is, those with 30 to 49 and 50 or more units.
There’s plenty of talk about how India’s 600-million-strong workforce gives it a unique edge in the US-China spat over trade and technology.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was flat in May and was up 3.9% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was down 0.1% month-over-month and up 1.5% year-over-year.
With the release of May's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. To two decimal places, disposable income per capita was down 0.60% month-over-month, marking the first monthly decline since January 2022. When adjusted for inflation, real disposable income per capita was down 0.73%.
Small Cap
World Markets Watchlist: July 7, 2025
Eight of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through July 7, 2025.
A Closer Look at Full-time and Part-time Employment: June 2025
June's employment report showed that 82.8% of total employed workers were full-time (35+ hours) and 17.2% of total employed workers were part-time (<35 hours).
A Concise and Comprehensive Review of Asset Class Performance in 1H 2025
U.S. stocks are no longer the best-performing asset class this year. Gold and foreign stocks are the best performers.
Multiple Jobholders Account for 5.3% of Workers in June 2025
Multiple jobholders accounted for 5.3% of civilian employment in June.
Behind the Meter Solutions Investing Guide
In part 2 of this series, this article looks past the data center operators and focuses on the natural gas pipelines and the manufacturers of natural gas power plant equipment.
Weekly Economic Snapshot: The Labor Market’s Conflicting Signals
Last week, the U.S. labor market took center stage, delivering conflicting signals. The S&P 500 reached many record highs during the shortened trading week.
At The Crossroads
In last week’s letter, I referenced Torsten Sløk’s excellent midyear outlook for Apollo Global Management. Today I’ll share some longer quotes which will, I hope, help you visualize where the economy is headed.
Vehicle Sales: June 2025
The moving average for the per-capita light vehicle sales series peaked in August 1978. Almost 50 years later, it is down nearly 37% from that peak.
Trump Sets Aug. 1 Start for Tariffs Ahead of Wednesday Deadline
President Donald Trump plans to announce trade deals and deliver tariff warnings on Monday, as countries negotiated through the weekend to avoid the highest punitive measures on their exports to the US before a Wednesday deadline.
Goldman Sachs Shops High-Yield Debt Deal for Gray Media
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is leading a potential transaction for Gray Media Inc. to help the company refinance some of its existing debt, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
BlackRock Weighs Selling Stake in Saudi Aramco Gas Pipelines
BlackRock Inc. is considering a sale of its stake in the leasing rights to Saudi Aramco’s natural-gas pipeline network back to the energy giant, according to people familiar with the matter.
Treasury Yields Snapshot: July 3, 2025
The yield on the 10-year note ended July 3, 2025 at 4.35%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.88% and the 30-year note ended at 4.86%.
Mid-Year Themes
Tariffs have been the dominant theme in economic policy this year. While President Trump has long held protectionist views, his administration’s approach to international commerce has been more belligerent than was seen in his first term.
The Bull Market is Alive and Well
The bull market is alive and well, even amid widespread talk of the “death of U.S. exceptionalism.
Growth Equity Portfolio Second Quarter Review June 30, 2025
This quarter might best be described as the “Big Beautiful Bounce”. Or the BBB. History has proven time and time again that markets do come back – but this was a historically quick market turnaround.
Lessons From the Past, Strategies for the Future
From investing to economics to politics, patterns emerge, lessons resurface and the past becomes a powerful guide for navigating today’s unpredictable landscape. Timing, perspective and adaptability can make all the difference in managing the complexities of modern markets.
Quick Thoughts: The Global Reset
As the global economy navigates a complex landscape, investors are left wondering: are they right to be optimistic or are they being complacent? This article from Franklin Templeton Institute explores the signs of resilience as well as numerous risks.
Easy Money? Rate Cuts May Not Ease Borrowing Costs
Though some urge rate cuts, doing that won't necessarily reduce borrowing costs if the market doesn't agree with the timing. It could raise inflation fears, hurting Treasuries.
Price Inflation Accounts for Entire Increase in Retail Sales Since Pandemic
Do you feel like you spend more and more money every month but get less and less for it? That’s because you are.
Getting a Grip on Uncertainty
Sharp U.S. policy shift and elevated uncertainty reflect an evolution of the new macro regime. What matters: getting a grip on uncertainty by identifying its core features.
Senate Approves Revised Tax and Spending Bill
The Senate has approved its own version of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" tax-and-spending plan. Here's how it differs from the version the House passed in May, and what's next.
Stock Pickers Shine, Sniffing Out Value During Market Tumult
Value investing has long been out of favor in US stocks and last quarter was no different, as an index of beaten-down shares badly trailed the broader market’s furious rally.
Powell Silence on His Future Complicates Trump Fed Chair Search
As President Donald Trump and his advisers begin weighing replacements for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, they’re running into one significant complication: It’s not clear that Powell will leave the US central bank next year.
Wells Fargo to Ramp Up Buying CLOs After Three-Year Retreat
Wells Fargo & Co. is ramping up buying top-rated collateralized loan obligations, after largely staying away from the $1.3 trillion market following interest rate hikes in 2022, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
Private Credit Outlook: Five Lessons Learned
Some say private credit hasn’t been tested. We disagree…and stress can sharpen the senses.
The 10 Stocks You Asked To See
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, co-founder of FAST Graphs, aka Mr. Valuation discusses 10 subscriber-requested stocks that you asked to see, highlighting how FAST Graphs simplifies stock analysis. He reviews companies like AES Corporation, Amgen, Alibaba, and Chipotle, showing how FAST Graphs quickly reveals key data, such as earnings growth, dividend history, and valuation.
S&P Global Services PMI: Growth Sustained in June
The June U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 52.9, above the 52.8 forecast. The reading marks the 29th consecutive month of expansion but was a slight slow down from May's 53.7 reading.
AstraZeneca CEO Wants to Move Listing to US, Times Reports
AstraZeneca Plc’s Chief Executive Officer Pascal Soriot wants to move the drugmaker’s stock listing to the US, the Times reported, in what would be another sign of the UK’s waning status as a magnet for global capital.
Bond Traders Scrap Bets on July Rate Cut After Strong Jobs Data
Treasuries tumbled after a stronger-than-expected jobs report for June prompted traders to exit bets on an interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month.
The Surprising Tariff Lesson Buried in Inflation Data
If the Trump administration’s tariff policies result in higher overall inflation, a scenario that will play out in the coming weeks, the question is who will pay for it.
Today’s Housing Math Favors Buying — Even in Austin
With mortgage rates still near 7%, even relatively wealthy households are choosing to rent rather than buy, and it’s easy to understand why.
Tesla Hit Refresh on Its EVs. It Didn't Work.: Liam Denning
Forget Tesla for a moment. Just imagine an anonymous company with the following characteristics.
Trade Deficit Expands 19% in May
The U.S. trade deficit expanded nearly 19% to -$71.5B, as exports declined more than imports declined.
Under the Macroscope: Why Cutting the SLR Matters
Proposed regulatory changes involving the Supplementary Leverage Ratio may have benefits for both large banks and the Treasury market.
Equity Markets Found Traction in June
Equity markets continued to march higher in June, seemingly unfazed by heightened Middle East tensions (which were short-lived) and the looming July 8 deadline for the administration’s pause on reciprocal tariffs.
Midyear Fixed Income Outlook: Starting Yields Matter Amid Uncertainty
We began the year optimistic that an environment of slowing growth, disinflation and easier monetary policy would be favorable for fixed income markets. Now at midyear, we maintain that view, while acknowledging that policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks may likely result in continued volatility.
A Lesson From Recent History
It has been over six months since the FOMC has made a change to the Fed Funds rate. While the debate continues as to when the next cut will be, market consensus (per Bloomberg calculations) is currently for a 25 basis point cut in September.
India's Incomplete Growth
An economy cannot subsist on services alone.
Markets Soar on Rate Cut Hopes, Job Strength
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Global Chief Investment Strategist Paul Eitelman explored key drivers behind the strong performance in markets. He also provided an update on a proposed U.S. tax measure.
Fixed-Income Outlook: Expanding the Field
The US economy is important, but it’s not the only one in a global approach.
The Lasting Impact of the COVID M2 Surge: Why Diversification Is More Crucial Than Ever
When the Fed increased the M2 money supply by over 40% during the COVID crisis, our instinct was that the implications would extend far beyond a temporary boost to the U.S. stock market and higher inflation. That intuition is proving accurate. We’re now seeing the long-term ripple effects play out in real time across multiple asset classes and global markets.
Two Measures of Inflation: May 2025
Inflation remains a hot topic, directly impacting everything from your grocery bill to interest rates. As of May 2025, two key inflation gauges — the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — show that prices are still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with the core PCE at 2.7% and core CPI at 2.8%.
The Four Bad Bear Recoveries: Where Is Today's Market?
This chart series features an overlay of four major secular bear markets: the Crash of 1929, the Oil Embargo of 1973, the Tech Bubble, and the Financial Crisis. The numbers are through the June 30, 2025 close.
The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since 2000 Highs as of June 2025
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the June 2025 close.
Expand Your Mind and Your Commodity Universe
For good reasons, many investors have a love-hate relationship with commodity investments. Operationally, the annoying K-1 form complicates tax filing, although thankfully the industry has started to launch “no K-1” funds.
How to Nurture Firm Culture, Values When Breaking Out on Your Own
Your firm's culture should reflect your values and your mission.
Equity Outlook: Applying Timeless Insights for Volatile Times Ahead
This year’s formidable challenges have clarified strategic lessons for equity investors to apply in the coming months
Apple, Alphabet and Tesla are Holding the S&P 500 Rally Back
Investors may be tempted to imagine how much higher the S&P 500 Index would be if three of its most influential stocks weren’t lagging behind.
JPMorgan’s Blockchain Unit Explores Tokenizing Carbon Credits
JPMorgan Chase & Co. is developing a new service to tokenize carbon credits and is partnering with a trio of carbon companies for an initial trial.
Treasuries Fall for Second Day With Focus on US Jobs Numbers
Treasuries are set for a second daily drop heading into a double whammy of labor data, following an unexpected jump in US job opening numbers.
Netflix’s Lofty Valuation Has Even Bullish Investors Nervous
Netflix Inc. investors face a dilemma: Continue to bet on a stock that has delivered best-in-class returns over the past year or reconsider shares that increasingly look like they’re priced for perfection.
Prevailing Skepticism Means Rally Has More Room
Markets notched fresh all-time highs on Friday with a positive tone and geopolitical outlook. Swift retreat in oil back to pre-strike levels, combined with friendlier NATO negotiations and de-escalated fighting in Iran restored risk appetite.
A Bird in the Hand...
In a speculative market chasing AI and high beta, this report makes the case for the steady power of compounding dividends reminding investors that, especially late in the cycle, a bird in the hand may truly be worth two in the bush.
Iran Conflict Equity Implications
A potential conflict with Iran has consistently appeared in our monthly Market Risk Monitor for over two years. Now that risk has materialized. Our equity portfolio managers assess the implications for global markets.
Invesco’s Danfield on Midyear Fixed Income Outlook
With the market roughly at the midpoint for 2025, investors and advisors are still assessing how changing macroeconomic conditions could affect their fixed income portfolio.
Fireworks Ahead: Jobs Data Loom After Record Highs
Easing trade tensions and hopes the Senate could pass a budget gave stocks an early lift after Friday's record highs. The week is packed with jobs news and Powell talks tomorrow.
Carney Gives Trump a Small Trade Victory in Hunt for Larger Deal
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney handed US President Donald Trump a win in the hope of making bigger gains in trade negotiations.
Gas Prices See Steepest Fall in 2 Months
Gas prices saw their steepest decline in nearly two months last week. As of June 30th, the price of regular and premium gas were each down 5 cents from the previous week.
Are You Using Trust-Based Languaging?
The words you use are not just tools for communication; they’re signals. Signals that tell your prospects whether you’re someone they can trust or someone they should avoid.
ISM Manufacturing PMI: Slower Contraction in June
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 49.0 in June, indicating contraction in U.S. manufacturing for a fourth straight month. The latest reading was above the forecast of 48.8.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Highest Level in Three Years
U.S. manufacturing expanded for the sixth consecutive month in June, with the S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI reaching a three-year high of 52.9. This was higher than the forecast of 52.0. However, tariffs continued to affect the sector, leading to increased inventory buildup and a sharp acceleration in inflation.
Let AI Explain Why Tesla's Critics Are Losing
Almost everything said about Tesla Inc. these days ranges from bad to worse.
Europe Should Stop Worrying and Learn to Love Nuclear
Just a few decades ago, Europe led the world in adopting nuclear. It relied on the technology for more than 30% of its electricity and accounted for more than 40% of global production.
10-Year Treasury Yield Long-Term Perspective: June 2025
The 10-year Treasury yield has experienced dramatic fluctuations, ranging from a peak of 15.68% in October 1981, during the height of the Volcker era, to a historic low of 0.55% in August 2020, amidst the economic uncertainty of the pandemic. At the end of June 2025, the weekly average stood at 4.30%.
Trump Succeeds at Pushing NATO to Spend Five Percent as New Arms Race Begins
Readers of a certain age will no doubt recall President Ronald Reagan launching one of the most ambitious military buildups in American history.
Breadth Check: Strength and Weakness Trend Tracker
Market breadth can help gauge strength or weakness. Methods include tracking the number of stocks trading above or below moving averages or making new highs or lows.
Not a Good Report on Personal Income and Spending in May
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
Thematic ETFs in 2025: What’s Next?
Thematic investing has experienced cycles of popularity over time. In less cautious market environments, investors often turn their attention to ambitious ideas — such as disruptive technologies or other transformative future trends — looking beyond traditional equity ETFs.
An Active, Multi-Income ETF Option at a Low Cost
Market uncertainty needs a tailor-made approach to fixed income for advisors to construct the ideal portfolio for their clients. There’s an easier solution that encompasses an active management approach, various income sources, and low cost. It’s the Vanguard Multi-Sector Income Bond ETF (VGMS).
Moving Averages of the Ivy Portfolio and S&P 500: June 2025
Valid until the market close on July 31, 2025
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
S&P 500 Set for Best Quarter Since December 2023
Stocks are wrapping up a stellar quarter at all-time highs amid signs of progress in US trade talks while hopes the Federal Reserve will resume its rate cuts drove Treasuries toward their biggest first-half stretch in five years. The dollar eyed its longest monthly slide since 2017.
Artificial Intelligence Discussion Closes Out Midyear Symposium
Thematic ETFs are making a comeback, and one theme in particular dominates conversation. Artificial Intelligence remains top of mind for investors. TMX VettaFi’s Zeno Mercer and Todd Rosenbluth discussed the disruptive technology.
Fueling AI Data Centers: Behind the Meter Solutions
Despite concerns regarding the electrical power grid, there are solutions to meet the surge in AI-driven energy demand. For example, nuclear energy is making a comeback.
Monitoring Portfolio News Using AI
One of the enduring challenges of portfolio management is the inability to follow all news flow relevant to portfolio positions. AI and cloud-based workflows are helping us overcome this problem.One of the enduring challenges of portfolio management is the inability to follow all news flow relevant to portfolio positions. AI and cloud-based workflows are helping us overcome this problem.%MCEPASTEBIN%
Dallas Fed Manufacturing: Business Conditions Continued to Worsen in June
The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for June. The general business activity index rose for a second straight month but remained in negative territory at -12.7. This marks the fifth straight month of worsening business conditions.
Bessent Says Current Yields Mean No Sense in Long Debt Ramp-Up
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated it wouldn’t make sense for the government to ramp up sales of longer-term securities given where yields are today, though he held out hope that interest rates across maturities will be falling as inflation slows.
Stocks are Defying the Naysayers. They Can Keep Going.
The S&P 500 Index just rallied back to all-time highs, brushing off the April tariff shock, the conflict with Iran and the insidious and persistent increase in US continuing jobless claims.
Shell May Still Need M&A After Ruling Out Buying BP
British oil and gas giant Shell Plc has quashed a rumor: It’s not buying BP Plc. But last week’s forceful denial doesn’t address why the M&A chatter gained so much traction, which has less to do with the parlous state of BP than with Shell itself.
A Maybe Mirror Image of SpaceX Is Enough for Some Investors
The digital assets platform Republic is touting plans to give retail investors access to the world’s hottest private companies starting with Elon Musk’s SpaceX via mirror tokens.
Google Is Betting on a Fusion Future in Power Deal With Commonwealth
Alphabet Inc.’s Google has agreed to purchase 200 megawatts of power from Commonwealth Fusion Systems’ planned first commercial plant, which is expected to begin delivering electricity to the grid in the early 2030s.
Chicago PMI Falls Further to 5-Month Low
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business Barometer) fell for a third straight month to its lowest level since January. The index inched down to 40.4 in June from 40.5 in May, falling short of the 42.7 forecast.
The Fed’s “Transitory” Mistake Is Affecting Its Outlook
The Fed’s credibility rests not on never being wrong, but on being adaptive and forward-looking. Inflation has cooled, wage growth has moderated, and economic momentum is slowing. Now is the time for the Fed to focus not on headline fears, but on real-time data.
RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Economic Index
The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of June 20th, the index was at 6.875, down 1.881 from the previous week, with 3 of the 6 components in expansion territory.
Bend, Not Break: Investing in Real Estate Amid Economic Uncertainty
Until recently, commercial real estate appeared poised for a long-awaited rebound. However, 2025 has revealed a new reality: Uncertainty has become structural.
Meet the 899-Ton Elephant in U.S. Tax Reform
It’s often said there are only two certainties in life: death and taxes. However, the tax landscape may become somewhat murkier, as the recently passed U.S. House budget bill may potentially lead to some non-U.S. investors paying more taxes than previously anticipated.
The Great Slowdown
Until that US government debt-crisis moment arrives, which we will get through, things will muddle along.
How Small Apartments in Big Buildings Became the US Norm
The US apartment-building boom that began about a decade ago appears to have ended last year, but it did so with a bang. It was the biggest year for apartment completions since 1986 and the biggest year ever for apartments in large buildings — that is, those with 30 to 49 and 50 or more units.
India’s Banks Will Lend. Will Tycoons Borrow?
There’s plenty of talk about how India’s 600-million-strong workforce gives it a unique edge in the US-China spat over trade and technology.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income Down 0.1% in May
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was flat in May and was up 3.9% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was down 0.1% month-over-month and up 1.5% year-over-year.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Down 0.7% in May
With the release of May's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. To two decimal places, disposable income per capita was down 0.60% month-over-month, marking the first monthly decline since January 2022. When adjusted for inflation, real disposable income per capita was down 0.73%.