Tariff threats offer a glimpse of what is in store.
Seven of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through February 10, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 9.68%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 9.42% while France's CAC 40 is in third with a year to date gain of 8.28%.
While Merton is one of the most brilliant financial economists who ever lived, high-level quantitative chops do not guarantee financial success.
Looking for an investment idea that’s paid off handsomely in commodities markets over the past six months? Try betting on the tropics.
Some allocators may focus their search efforts on corporate credit segments or simply a portfolio that can opportunistically trade across fixed income sectors.
Today we’ll talk about side effects, and whether the cure is worse than the disease.
Markets, as many of you are aware, don’t like uncertainty. And right now, there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy.
Tariffs seem to have become a staple of Americans’ dictionaries lately as the new administration uses this policy instrument to achieve objectives that are not directly tied to the reasons tariffs have been used in the past.
The yield on the 10-year note ended February 7, 2025 at 4.49%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 4.29% and the 30-year note ended at 4.69%.
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In January, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 143,000, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.0%.
US job growth moderated in January while annual revisions from the government also revealed less vigor in the labor market last year than previously thought.
We hope you enjoy the latest newsletter from Harold Evensky.
Raymond James CIO Larry Adam looks at how the proposed tariffs may impact the economy and financial markets.
In a first quarter 2025 asset allocation report, Confluence expects resilient economic growth in the short term.
VettaFi discusses tariffs and transportation ETFs.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration’s focus with regard to bringing down borrowing costs is 10-year Treasury yields, rather than the Federal Reserve’s benchmark short-term interest rate.
January is in the books, and markets are still waiting on a big rebound in the dealmaking space. Investors rooting for increased M&A and a flurry of IPOs will have to be patient as Q1 tracks with continued low counts on both fronts.
Our latest article, authored by renowned strategist Martin Pring, dives into the evolving dynamics of inflation, commodity prices, and interest rates. Despite recent rate cuts, the bond market appears to be echoing Martin's earlier warning. The business cycle is moving toward a critical stage—one that historically signals a surge in commodities and potential shifts in CPI inflation.
We analyze the impact of U.S. tariff proposals on markets and how investors can manage their portfolios accordingly.
The equity market appears to be showing signs of broadening beyond technology.
The Ivy Portfolio is based on the asset allocation strategy used by endowment funds from Harvard and Yale. It is an equally weighted portfolio constructed with 5 ETFs that feature a mix of different asset classes. By allocating across different asset classes, diversification is achieved, and risk is reduced.
The US Treasury on Wednesday maintained its guidance on keeping sales of longer-term debt unchanged well into 2025, despite newly installed Secretary Scott Bessent having criticized the issuance strategy of his predecessor before he was picked for the job.
Gold climbed to a fresh record high, as trade-war worries bolstered haven demand and there were continued signs of short-term tightness in the market.
The Census Bureau released its latest quarterly report for Q4 2024 showing the latest homeownership rate is at 65.7%, up from Q3 but practically unchanged from a year ago.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its January Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 52.8—below the forecast of 54.2. Despite the miss, the reading marks the seventh consecutive month of expansion.
The January U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 52.9, slightly above the 52.8 forecast. The reading marks the 24th consecutive month of expansion but is the weakest since April.
Last week’s volatility in AI-related stocks shows markets are learning in real time about the transformation underway.
After this week’s FOMC decision to hold the fed funds rate unchanged, markets and analysts concluded that Federal Reserve members had changed their views on inflation.
The DeepSeek blip notwithstanding (our initial take on the news is here), January 2025 was a good month for financial markets. The S&P 500 was up a robust 2.7%, though Nasdaq lagged (largely due to DeepSeek, in our opinion) with “only” a 1.7% monthly return.
Managers see mixed opportunities in emerging markets and a broadening opportunity set for small caps across global markets.
Gas prices inched down this week. As of February 3rd, the price of regular and premium gas were each down 1 cent from the previous week. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $73.16, unchanged from last week.
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why gold may continue to advance in 2025 despite a stronger dollar and elevated real rate environment.
Hedge funds have long gotten bad press. Criticized for short selling, corporate agitation or destructive greed, their contribution to economic activity isn’t always clear.
Tariffs could upend the U.S. auto and energy sectors.
The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for December showed that core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 2.8%. The December core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 3.2%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.
As of January 31, 2025, the 10-year note was 406 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52% reached on August 4, 2020.
The US crude benchmark outpaced gains in other oil markets after President Donald Trump announced tariffs that threaten flows from two of America’s biggest foreign suppliers.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 50.9 in January, pushing the index into expansion territory for the first time since October 2022. The latest reading was better than the forecast of 49.3.
The manufacturing sector started the new year with renewed expansion, as the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ rose to 51.2 in January from 49.4 in December.
This is not about China. I applaud the creativity of the DeepSeek developers and especially their ability to drive down costs. I am amazed they made it truly open-source and revealed everything.
A surprise is a completely unexpected outcome. By definition, a surprise is improbable, and its occurrence is rare. It seems strange then to try to predict three of them every year.
The artificial intelligence (AI) revolution is moving at lightning speed, and one of the biggest stories this past week underscores just how critical the technology has become—not just for Silicon Valley, but for America’s national security and global competitiveness.
Jeff and Ron Muhlenkamp discuss ongoing inflation and modest but steady GDP growth. In 2024 stock markets mirrored 2023, with AI-related tech companies driving growth, while long-term bonds yielded little.
Valid until the market close on February 28, 2025.
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business Barometer) edged up in January but remains historically low. The index rose to 39.5 from 36.9 in December, marking its first increase in four months. However, it fell short of the 40.3 forecast and remained in contraction territory for the 14th consecutive month.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in December and is up 4.6% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.2% month-over-month and up 2.0% year-over-year.
Can corporate profits reignite after a rocky 2024? This earnings season could either fuel the market’s fire or leave it gasping for air.
Concerns about the outlook for Treasuries have fueled a resurgence of interest in the Magnificent 7 as a target for safe-haven flows.
Deregulation is among President Donald Trump’s most enduring policy themes. In his 2016 campaign, he called for widespread deregulation and made it a central plank in both his economic and energy platforms.
In today’s post, we will examine the money supply represented by M2, the Federal budget deficit, the Fed’s previous adventures with QE, and the correlation to inflation.
Markets responded positively during Trump's first week in office, despite threats of tariffs on the three largest trading partners of the U.S. Are trade risks being dismissed?
Howard Lutnick, President Donald Trump’s nominee to lead the Commerce Department, offered a detailed defense of tariffs in his confirmation hearing, the clearest signal yet from a cabinet pick that the new administration is prepared to impose the levies on allies and adversaries alike.
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
Calamos’ Matt Kaufman explains the mechanics and rationale behind the Calamos Bitcoin Structured Alt Protection ETF – January (CBOJ). VettaFi’s Roxanna Islam examines the best-performing ETFs so far this year and discusses a recent surge of legacy asset managers entering the ETF space.
Tech leaders gathered at the White House to announce Stargate Project, a new venture that plans to invest $500 billion over the next four years on AI infrastructure and datacenters.
Home prices continued to trend upwards in November as the benchmark national index rose for the 22nd consecutive month to a new all-time high. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.4% increase MoM, and a 3.8% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to 0.2% and YoY fell to -1.1%.
New orders for manufactured durable goods rose to $276.06B in December, the lowest level since June. This represents a 2.2% decrease from the previous month and a 3.9% decline from one year ago. The latest reading was worse than the expected 0.3% growth.
Donald Trump’s second term as president came with a flurry of executive orders and his policies are rippling across the global markets.
We explore how evolving priorities under the new U.S. administration may influence markets and investor outlooks.
Next week we will have the first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting decision on interest rates of the year, where Federal Reserve (Fed) officials are expected to leave the federal funds rate unchanged.
I recently read three very different books which were published in the last three years, all of them speaking to the problems created by the neoliberal order that has been in the ascendancy since the late ’70s but has faltered of late. The solutions that these books offer are, respectively: tweaking; evolution; and revolution.
Today, if you only invest in the US, you’re experiencing two hells. Your stocks are underperforming, and even inexpensive stocks are expensive. Yes, welcome to double hell. European stocks, however, offer paradise today.
Markets have responded with gusto since November’s presidential election, especially in a few key—and perhaps expected—industries. The biggest winner so far is the automobile industry...
As we kick off 2025, the landscape is rich with competing narratives and evolving dynamics.
The world’s biggest stock market is heading for its best start for a new US president since Ronald Reagan was sworn in to power in 1985.
Raw data needs sophisticated infrastructure to drive AI innovation. Snowflake provides critical infrastructure provider for the AI age.
US equity markets rallied just enough to round out 2024 with all four quarters posting positive returns. The S&P 500® Index finished the fourth quarter up 2.41%, bringing the year’s total return to 25.02%.
Please join Dan Magnusson and Bob Minter from abrdn, as they discuss how the commodity asset class performed in 2024, current investment opportunities in the commodity space, and where broad commodities may fit within a diversified portfolio.
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman told President Donald Trump he’s willing to expand investments and trade with the US in the coming four years by $600 billion, according to the kingdom’s state-run news agency SPA.
Investors, many of whom were worried about stock valuations before the election, have much to consider heading into 2025. There seems reason for some exuberance—but a rational exuberance, based upon a plausible foundation of corporate and economic health.
European equity markets may look vulnerable to fallout from new US policies. But some companies offer investors reasons to cheer.
Some soft data metrics have started to rebound sharply and catch back up to relatively resilient hard data, but it's too soon to say whether the gap is definitively closing.
The ETF industry’s upstart-in-chief is back with another roll of the new-product dice — this time betting on a game-changing expansion of Wall Street’s zero-day options boom.
VettaFi examines midstream EBITDA growth guidance for 2025 and future years.
Markets vigorously adjusted expectations for a new regulatory, economic, and geopolitical landscape driven by U.S. politics.
This past week brought promising news for the markets and the broader economy. Inflation data came in at or below expectations, while economic indicators, including housing starts and retail sales, demonstrated surprising resilience.
On this episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s head of research, Todd Rosenbluth, discussed the Invesco KBW Bank ETF (KBWB) with Chuck Jaffe of Money Life. The pair discussed several topics related to the fund to give investors a deeper understanding of the ETF overall.
US government bond yields approached their lowest levels of the year after President Donald Trump refrained from immediately implementing tariffs and oil prices declined, easing inflation concerns.
President Donald Trump launched a sweeping overhaul of US energy policy hours after taking office Monday, putting the weight of the federal government behind fossil-fuel production and pulling back from the fight against climate change.
Donald Trump opened his second term as US president with a market-jolting recalibration of his tariff policies, in a sign of turbulence ahead for investors and corporate executives.
At the start of every year, we publish our popular Periodic Table of Commodity Returns, an interactive infographic of the gains and losses across the commodities market.
Last week in my 2025 forecast letter, I predicted A Partly Cloudy Year, generally mild but with occasional storms. Today we’ll talk about the second half of that sentence. What could go wrong and lead to a worse-than-expected year? In short, what are the main risks to my forecast?
We understand that the monetary policy playbook since the Bernanke Fed and the Great Financial Crisis has changed considerably.
New Yorkers bowing their heads into a cutting wind is typically a bullish sign for natural gas prices, and this January is no exception.
The latest US sanctions on oil tankers hauling Russian petroleum look set to cause severe disruption across the nation’s export machine, with some of Moscow’s flows at risk of a near wipeout if history is any guide.
A look at how the renewable energy opportunity may and may not change.
Advisers to President-elect Donald Trump are crafting a wide-ranging sanctions strategy to facilitate a Russia-Ukraine diplomatic accord in the coming months while at the same time squeezing Iran and Venezuela, people familiar with the matter said.
First came the raid on a Mexico City shopping center known for selling Chinese-made clothing, toys and electronics
Canada’s stock market — where returns have lagged the US for two straight years — might offer investors protection against a downturn in US stocks, a Toronto-based asset manager says.
U.S. Treasury yields have increased notably since September, particularly at the long end of the curve, with the 10-year yield up over 100 basis points from its recent lows. We unpack the drivers behind this big move in rates and our outlook for bonds going forward.
Commodities
Twists and Turns of Tariffs
Tariff threats offer a glimpse of what is in store.
World Markets Watchlist: February 10, 2025
Seven of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through February 10, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 9.68%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 9.42% while France's CAC 40 is in third with a year to date gain of 8.28%.
Here We Go Again: Merton Share and Why I Don’t Use Retirement Calculators
While Merton is one of the most brilliant financial economists who ever lived, high-level quantitative chops do not guarantee financial success.
The Hot Money in Commodities Is Betting on the Tropics
Looking for an investment idea that’s paid off handsomely in commodities markets over the past six months? Try betting on the tropics.
Three Reasons to Consider Dedicated Emerging Market Debt Exposure
Some allocators may focus their search efforts on corporate credit segments or simply a portfolio that can opportunistically trade across fixed income sectors.
Serious Side Effects
Today we’ll talk about side effects, and whether the cure is worse than the disease.
Could Trump’s Tariff Revenues Fund a New U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund?
Markets, as many of you are aware, don’t like uncertainty. And right now, there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy.
A Historical Look at Tariffs
Tariffs seem to have become a staple of Americans’ dictionaries lately as the new administration uses this policy instrument to achieve objectives that are not directly tied to the reasons tariffs have been used in the past.
Treasury Yields Snapshot: February 7, 2025
The yield on the 10-year note ended February 7, 2025 at 4.49%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 4.29% and the 30-year note ended at 4.69%.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: January Employment
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In January, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 143,000, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.0%.
US Job Growth Slowed in January After 2024 Downward Revision
US job growth moderated in January while annual revisions from the government also revealed less vigor in the labor market last year than previously thought.
Newsletter January 2025
We hope you enjoy the latest newsletter from Harold Evensky.
Potential Impact of Tariffs Weighing on Markets, Corporations
Raymond James CIO Larry Adam looks at how the proposed tariffs may impact the economy and financial markets.
Confluence Asset Allocation Quarterly (First Quarter 2025)
In a first quarter 2025 asset allocation report, Confluence expects resilient economic growth in the short term.
Transportation ETFs: Tariffs Take the Wheel
VettaFi discusses tariffs and transportation ETFs.
Bessent Says Trump Wants Lower 10-Year Yields, Not Fed Cuts
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration’s focus with regard to bringing down borrowing costs is 10-year Treasury yields, rather than the Federal Reserve’s benchmark short-term interest rate.
Steady M&A Deals to Begin 2025, Disappointing IPOs So Far
January is in the books, and markets are still waiting on a big rebound in the dealmaking space. Investors rooting for increased M&A and a flurry of IPOs will have to be patient as Q1 tracks with continued low counts on both fronts.
Why a Firming in the CPI May be Closer Than You Think
Our latest article, authored by renowned strategist Martin Pring, dives into the evolving dynamics of inflation, commodity prices, and interest rates. Despite recent rate cuts, the bond market appears to be echoing Martin's earlier warning. The business cycle is moving toward a critical stage—one that historically signals a surge in commodities and potential shifts in CPI inflation.
What the U.S. Tariffs Mean for Investors
We analyze the impact of U.S. tariff proposals on markets and how investors can manage their portfolios accordingly.
Market Performance Reflects Continued Optimism for US Economy
The equity market appears to be showing signs of broadening beyond technology.
Moving Averages of the Ivy Portfolio and S&P 500: January 2025
The Ivy Portfolio is based on the asset allocation strategy used by endowment funds from Harvard and Yale. It is an equally weighted portfolio constructed with 5 ETFs that feature a mix of different asset classes. By allocating across different asset classes, diversification is achieved, and risk is reduced.
Bessent’s Treasury Sticks With Yellen-Era Long-Term Debt Plan
The US Treasury on Wednesday maintained its guidance on keeping sales of longer-term debt unchanged well into 2025, despite newly installed Secretary Scott Bessent having criticized the issuance strategy of his predecessor before he was picked for the job.
Gold Hits Fresh Record on Haven Demand as Tightness Persists
Gold climbed to a fresh record high, as trade-war worries bolstered haven demand and there were continued signs of short-term tightness in the market.
Home Ownership Rate: 65.7% in Q4 2024
The Census Bureau released its latest quarterly report for Q4 2024 showing the latest homeownership rate is at 65.7%, up from Q3 but practically unchanged from a year ago.
ISM Services PMI Expanded for Seventh Straight Month in January
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its January Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 52.8—below the forecast of 54.2. Despite the miss, the reading marks the seventh consecutive month of expansion.
S&P Global Services PMI: Weakest Expansion Since April
The January U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 52.9, slightly above the 52.8 forecast. The reading marks the 24th consecutive month of expansion but is the weakest since April.
AI Mega Force Could Be Accelerating
Last week’s volatility in AI-related stocks shows markets are learning in real time about the transformation underway.
Fed Holds Steady: No News Is Good News
After this week’s FOMC decision to hold the fed funds rate unchanged, markets and analysts concluded that Federal Reserve members had changed their views on inflation.
QuantStreet February 2025 Letter: More of the Same
The DeepSeek blip notwithstanding (our initial take on the news is here), January 2025 was a good month for financial markets. The S&P 500 was up a robust 2.7%, though Nasdaq lagged (largely due to DeepSeek, in our opinion) with “only” a 1.7% monthly return.
February 2025 Active Management Insights: Increased Global Opportunities in Small Caps
Managers see mixed opportunities in emerging markets and a broadening opportunity set for small caps across global markets.
Gasoline Prices Inch Down From Last Week
Gas prices inched down this week. As of February 3rd, the price of regular and premium gas were each down 1 cent from the previous week. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $73.16, unchanged from last week.
Stay Long Gold, Just Not as a Hedge
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why gold may continue to advance in 2025 despite a stronger dollar and elevated real rate environment.
DeepSeek Is Just the Latest Hedge Fund Innovation
Hedge funds have long gotten bad press. Criticized for short selling, corporate agitation or destructive greed, their contribution to economic activity isn’t always clear.
Northern Exposure
Tariffs could upend the U.S. auto and energy sectors.
Two Measures of Inflation: December 2024
The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for December showed that core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 2.8%. The December core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 3.2%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.
Treasury Yields Long-Term Perspective: January 2025
As of January 31, 2025, the 10-year note was 406 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52% reached on August 4, 2020.
US Oil Outpaces Global Price Gains as Tariffs Menace Supply
The US crude benchmark outpaced gains in other oil markets after President Donald Trump announced tariffs that threaten flows from two of America’s biggest foreign suppliers.
ISM Manufacturing Index Expands for First Time Since 2022
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 50.9 in January, pushing the index into expansion territory for the first time since October 2022. The latest reading was better than the forecast of 49.3.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Renewed Expansion to Start New Year
The manufacturing sector started the new year with renewed expansion, as the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ rose to 51.2 in January from 49.4 in December.
Why DeepSeek Is Bullish for the World
This is not about China. I applaud the creativity of the DeepSeek developers and especially their ability to drive down costs. I am amazed they made it truly open-source and revealed everything.
Three Surprises for 2025: Overcoming One-way Investor Sentiment
A surprise is a completely unexpected outcome. By definition, a surprise is improbable, and its occurrence is rare. It seems strange then to try to predict three of them every year.
China’s AI Breakthrough Sends NVIDIA Reeling and Sparks National Security Fears
The artificial intelligence (AI) revolution is moving at lightning speed, and one of the biggest stories this past week underscores just how critical the technology has become—not just for Silicon Valley, but for America’s national security and global competitiveness.
Quarterly Market Commentary – January 2025
Jeff and Ron Muhlenkamp discuss ongoing inflation and modest but steady GDP growth. In 2024 stock markets mirrored 2023, with AI-related tech companies driving growth, while long-term bonds yielded little.
Moving Averages: S&P Finishes January 2025 Up 2.70%
Valid until the market close on February 28, 2025.
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
Chicago PMI Contracts for 14th Straight Month
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business Barometer) edged up in January but remains historically low. The index rose to 39.5 from 36.9 in December, marking its first increase in four months. However, it fell short of the 40.3 forecast and remained in contraction territory for the 14th consecutive month.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income Up 0.2% in December
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in December and is up 4.6% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.2% month-over-month and up 2.0% year-over-year.
Trading Q4 Earnings: Will Bulls Fly or Just Get Gored?
Can corporate profits reignite after a rocky 2024? This earnings season could either fuel the market’s fire or leave it gasping for air.
Magnificent 7 to the Rescue!
Concerns about the outlook for Treasuries have fueled a resurgence of interest in the Magnificent 7 as a target for safe-haven flows.
Trump 2.0: The Deregulation Agenda – No New Rules?
Deregulation is among President Donald Trump’s most enduring policy themes. In his 2016 campaign, he called for widespread deregulation and made it a central plank in both his economic and energy platforms.
Do Money Supply, Deficit And QE Create Inflation?
In today’s post, we will examine the money supply represented by M2, the Federal budget deficit, the Fed’s previous adventures with QE, and the correlation to inflation.
Tariffs: Bark Worse Than Bite?
Markets responded positively during Trump's first week in office, despite threats of tariffs on the three largest trading partners of the U.S. Are trade risks being dismissed?
Lutnick Says Trump’s Tariffs Will Restore US Economy and Respect
Howard Lutnick, President Donald Trump’s nominee to lead the Commerce Department, offered a detailed defense of tariffs in his confirmation hearing, the clearest signal yet from a cabinet pick that the new administration is prepared to impose the levies on allies and adversaries alike.
The Opportunity Right in Front of Investors
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
Calamos’ Matt Kaufman Explains World’s First 100% Downside Protected Bitcoin ETF
Calamos’ Matt Kaufman explains the mechanics and rationale behind the Calamos Bitcoin Structured Alt Protection ETF – January (CBOJ). VettaFi’s Roxanna Islam examines the best-performing ETFs so far this year and discusses a recent surge of legacy asset managers entering the ETF space.
Disruptive Theme of the Week: ETF Plays on the Stargate Project
Tech leaders gathered at the White House to announce Stargate Project, a new venture that plans to invest $500 billion over the next four years on AI infrastructure and datacenters.
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index: Hits 18th Consecutive All-Time High in November
Home prices continued to trend upwards in November as the benchmark national index rose for the 22nd consecutive month to a new all-time high. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.4% increase MoM, and a 3.8% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to 0.2% and YoY fell to -1.1%.
Durable Goods Orders: December 2024
New orders for manufactured durable goods rose to $276.06B in December, the lowest level since June. This represents a 2.2% decrease from the previous month and a 3.9% decline from one year ago. The latest reading was worse than the expected 0.3% growth.
Markets Resilient Amid Historic Week and Fed Meeting in Focus
Donald Trump’s second term as president came with a flurry of executive orders and his policies are rippling across the global markets.
The Price of Progress
We explore how evolving priorities under the new U.S. administration may influence markets and investor outlooks.
Pay Close Attention to the Fed Chairman's Press Conference
Next week we will have the first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting decision on interest rates of the year, where Federal Reserve (Fed) officials are expected to leave the federal funds rate unchanged.
The End of the Neoliberal Era
I recently read three very different books which were published in the last three years, all of them speaking to the problems created by the neoliberal order that has been in the ascendancy since the late ’70s but has faltered of late. The solutions that these books offer are, respectively: tweaking; evolution; and revolution.
Escaping Stock Market Double Hell
Today, if you only invest in the US, you’re experiencing two hells. Your stocks are underperforming, and even inexpensive stocks are expensive. Yes, welcome to double hell. European stocks, however, offer paradise today.
Arctic Resource Boom Pits U.S. Against Russia and China in the New “Red Cold War”
Markets have responded with gusto since November’s presidential election, especially in a few key—and perhaps expected—industries. The biggest winner so far is the automobile industry...
Navigating Earnings Season: Margins for Error
As we kick off 2025, the landscape is rich with competing narratives and evolving dynamics.
S&P 500 Sees Best Start for a President Since 1985
The world’s biggest stock market is heading for its best start for a new US president since Ronald Reagan was sworn in to power in 1985.
Data Is the New Oil: How Snowflake Is Building AI's Critical Infrastructure
Raw data needs sophisticated infrastructure to drive AI innovation. Snowflake provides critical infrastructure provider for the AI age.
Harvesting Tax Losses When Markets Keep Posting Positive Returns
US equity markets rallied just enough to round out 2024 with all four quarters posting positive returns. The S&P 500® Index finished the fourth quarter up 2.41%, bringing the year’s total return to 25.02%.
Commodities: The year that was, the year that could be
Please join Dan Magnusson and Bob Minter from abrdn, as they discuss how the commodity asset class performed in 2024, current investment opportunities in the commodity space, and where broad commodities may fit within a diversified portfolio.
Saudi Crown Prince Makes $600 Billion Investment and Trade Pledge to Trump
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman told President Donald Trump he’s willing to expand investments and trade with the US in the coming four years by $600 billion, according to the kingdom’s state-run news agency SPA.
2025 Market Outlook: Rational Exuberance?
Investors, many of whom were worried about stock valuations before the election, have much to consider heading into 2025. There seems reason for some exuberance—but a rational exuberance, based upon a plausible foundation of corporate and economic health.
Can European Stocks Overcome Fallout From “America First” Agenda?
European equity markets may look vulnerable to fallout from new US policies. But some companies offer investors reasons to cheer.
Hard to Handle: A Look at Hard vs. Soft Data
Some soft data metrics have started to rebound sharply and catch back up to relatively resilient hard data, but it's too soon to say whether the gap is definitively closing.
Nvidia Zero-Day Options Are the Next Big Bet for One ETF Upstart
The ETF industry’s upstart-in-chief is back with another roll of the new-product dice — this time betting on a game-changing expansion of Wall Street’s zero-day options boom.
Examining Midstream EBITDA Guidance for 2025 and Beyond
VettaFi examines midstream EBITDA growth guidance for 2025 and future years.
Q4 2024 Commentary: Defying Expectations, Embracing Optimization
Markets vigorously adjusted expectations for a new regulatory, economic, and geopolitical landscape driven by U.S. politics.
Inflation Tames, Economy Gains: A Resilient Start to 2025
This past week brought promising news for the markets and the broader economy. Inflation data came in at or below expectations, while economic indicators, including housing starts and retail sales, demonstrated surprising resilience.
Invesco KBW Bank ETF (KBWB)
On this episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s head of research, Todd Rosenbluth, discussed the Invesco KBW Bank ETF (KBWB) with Chuck Jaffe of Money Life. The pair discussed several topics related to the fund to give investors a deeper understanding of the ETF overall.
US Bonds Advance as Trump Delays on Tariffs, Oil Prices Fall
US government bond yields approached their lowest levels of the year after President Donald Trump refrained from immediately implementing tariffs and oil prices declined, easing inflation concerns.
Trump Starts Reshaping US Energy With Focus on Oil and Gas
President Donald Trump launched a sweeping overhaul of US energy policy hours after taking office Monday, putting the weight of the federal government behind fossil-fuel production and pulling back from the fight against climate change.
Trump’s Tariff Shifts Are a Warning for Corporate America to Expect Whiplash
Donald Trump opened his second term as US president with a market-jolting recalibration of his tariff policies, in a sign of turbulence ahead for investors and corporate executives.
Periodic Table of Commodity Returns Revels Winners and Losers for 2024
At the start of every year, we publish our popular Periodic Table of Commodity Returns, an interactive infographic of the gains and losses across the commodities market.
A Possible Storm
Last week in my 2025 forecast letter, I predicted A Partly Cloudy Year, generally mild but with occasional storms. Today we’ll talk about the second half of that sentence. What could go wrong and lead to a worse-than-expected year? In short, what are the main risks to my forecast?
Is This What the Dr. Ordered?
We understand that the monetary policy playbook since the Bernanke Fed and the Great Financial Crisis has changed considerably.
The US Gas Comeback Is Real
New Yorkers bowing their heads into a cutting wind is typically a bullish sign for natural gas prices, and this January is no exception.
The Definitive Guide to Where the US Has Squeezed Russia’s Oil Flows the Hardest
The latest US sanctions on oil tankers hauling Russian petroleum look set to cause severe disruption across the nation’s export machine, with some of Moscow’s flows at risk of a near wipeout if history is any guide.
Tariffs, Tempests, Turnarounds: What’s Next for Renewable Energy?
A look at how the renewable energy opportunity may and may not change.
Trump Team Readies Oil Sanctions Plan for Russia Deal, Iran Squeeze
Advisers to President-elect Donald Trump are crafting a wide-ranging sanctions strategy to facilitate a Russia-Ukraine diplomatic accord in the coming months while at the same time squeezing Iran and Venezuela, people familiar with the matter said.
Mexico Cozies Up to Trump With Crackdown on China Trade
First came the raid on a Mexico City shopping center known for selling Chinese-made clothing, toys and electronics
Canada a ‘Good Place to Hide’ If US Stocks Drop, Contrarian Says
Canada’s stock market — where returns have lagged the US for two straight years — might offer investors protection against a downturn in US stocks, a Toronto-based asset manager says.
A Deep Dive on the Recent Spike in U.S. Treasury Yields
U.S. Treasury yields have increased notably since September, particularly at the long end of the curve, with the 10-year yield up over 100 basis points from its recent lows. We unpack the drivers behind this big move in rates and our outlook for bonds going forward.