One of the biggest challenges investors face today is navigating the most concentrated U.S. stock market in history, where the largest stocks represent a record share of total market value.
Recent economic data has been all over the map. Consumer confidence sank this month to the lowest level since November 2022, yet the labor market remains strong, with historically low unemployment and rising wages.
News related to tariffs, DOGE, geopolitical unrest, NVIDIA earnings, and more significantly impacted U.S. stock markets recently, with the S&P 500 retreating over 2.5% during the second half of February. There are signs that meaningful structural shifts are taking place in the market.
The 60/40 portfolio, where 60% is invested in stocks and 40% in bonds, is the initial starting point for many portfolios. The exact asset mix is often adjusted based on an investor’s time horizon, risk tolerance, and financial goals, but the simple, proportional stock-bond combination is what is often considered a “balanced” portfolio.
In today’s rapidly evolving financial landscape, advisors are expected to be more than just portfolio managers. Clients don’t just want investment recommendations—they seek a trusted partner who understands their financial needs, offers strategic guidance and provides peace of mind during turbulent times.
Investors who have come to us in the last three to four years are probably wondering if we’ve been here before. By here, we mean a stretch of significant underperformance relative to our benchmarks. The answer is, yes. Let’s review those prior circumstances to see if we can learn something about where we might be headed.
While restrictive covenants serve an important role, their enforceability hinges on their scope, the dictates of state law and, ultimately, public policy considerations regarding balancing employer business interests with employee rights to pursue their careers.
As we wade into March, market volatility is at the forefront, leaving investors grappling with uncertainty surrounding tariffs and mixed economic signals. Though the S&P 500 experienced a bounce towards February's end, it slipped 1% overall, revealing lingering challenges for iconic tech stocks and the broader equity landscape.
Precidian’s Stuart Thomas spotlights the firm’s innovative ADRhedged ETFs and explains the rationale for removing currency exposure. VettaFi’s Kirsten Chang discusses several recent ETF launches, including offerings from State Street, VistaShares, Quantify Funds, and Roundhill.
As more advisors look to private equity as an effective means of diversifying their clients’ portfolios and providing a fertile source of uncorrelated alpha, the middle market merits a closer look.
It is true that tariffs are a tax. It is also true that tariff policies have been volatile…on and off again…different carve outs…different countries…phone calls that change things. All of this clearly has an impact on the market. So, we are not surprised to see stock market volatility.
Investor’s bearish sentiment has surged to levels that generally align with previous market corrections and crashes.
On March 4, 2025, the Trump administration imposed tariffs of 25% on Canada and Mexico and increased tariffs on Chinese imports to 20% from the previous 10% imposed earlier in the year.
During February, Advisor Perspectives featured a number of quality articles on topics near and dear to the advisory community.
Travel on all roads and streets increased in December. The 12-month moving average was up 0.13% month-over-month and was up 0.99% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.07% MoM and up 0.38% YoY.
The latest employment report showed that 151,000 jobs were added in February, falling short of the expected 159,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate unexpectedly inched up to 4.1%.
Cambria Investments CIO and founder Meb Faber explores David Swensen’s legendary investment strategy at Yale’s endowment, comparing its long-term performance to traditional portfolios and examining whether individual investors can replicate its success.
The "2025+ Outlook Report" offers an analysis of how robotics, AI, and healthcare technology are converging to reshape industries globally.
In his testimony before the House Financial Services Committee February 12, Federal Reserve Chair Powell was questioned about why mortgage rates had not declined.
Ever since interest rates got up off the floor in 2022, there’s been increased interest in credit, and that’s why I’m devoting this memo to it. It’ll come a little closer than usual to “talking my book,” but I think the subject justifies that.
Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio’s famous “All Weather” strategy has arrived in the exchange-traded fund market, just as the kind of macro-driven turmoil it seeks to guard against sweeps global assets.
One of the most referenced valuation measures is Dr. Robert Shiller’s Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings Ratio, known as CAPE.
We view quarterly earnings season as a critical checkup on how markets are handling current challenges.
Unlike most of the rest of the world, I will attempt to minimize all there is to say about the beginning of the next 4 years, as the persistent yack and what to make of it reverberates in all corners of the financial globe.
There’s an old Wall Street saying that “the stock market is not the economy.” That’s usually true. But, in this economic cycle, stock market gains have become an increasingly important driver of consumer spending, helping to fuel growth as other areas of the economy cool.
With major US policy change unfolding, flexibility across and within asset classes will be critical.
Many independent firms and Registered Investment Advisors aspire to move upmarket, targeting wealthier clients who demand more sophisticated financial solutions.
Looming U.S. and global policy shifts may potentially rattle markets, but a tactical and flexible approach could help investors navigate risks and opportunities regardless of how events play out.
The perfect pairing for your U.S. large-cap portfolio?
Should you avoid lower-rated, riskier investments like high-yield corporate bonds or bank loans? Not necessarily, but you should understand the risks.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q4 GDP second estimate, three of the four components made positive contributions.
A diversified investment strategy that seeks to juice returns through leverage is finding new love among big money managers — more than a decade after it blew up during the 2008 financial crisis.
In the report, John Kerschner, Head of US Securitized Products & Portfolio Manager, and John Lloyd, Lead for the Multi-Sector Credit Strategies & Portfolio Manager, review the best-performing U.S. fixed income sectors of 2024 – what worked, what didn’t, and what it means for investors going forward.
A healthy jobs report should keep real estate traders appeased, but cautious optimism is warranted moving forward.
Home prices continued to trend upwards in December as the benchmark national index rose for a 23rd consecutive month to a new all-time high. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.5% increase MoM, and a 4.0% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to 0.2% and YoY fell to -0.8%.
Retail investors are expected to become more bullish about increasing equity exposure when markets rise.
In the second half of 2024 the risk premia associated with inflation releases declined relative to labor market data as the Fed shifted focus toward labor market and away from inflation risk. With elevated S&P 500 Index concentration and the market leadership of the artificial intelligence (AI) theme, some single company earnings (NVIDIA) have been rising risk events for the entire index.
With our most reliable valuation measures more extreme than both the 1929 and 2000 market peaks, we continue to believe that the stock market is tracing out the extended peak of the third great speculative bubble in U.S. history.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. is dramatically ramping up its direct-lending effort, setting aside an additional $50 billion to capture a bigger chunk of the fast-growing market.
There are several answers, but an important financial one is that recent fundamental market changes have been much more disruptive for egg buyers than computer-processing users.
Taxable municipal bonds may be an attractive option for investors in lower tax brackets, but there are things investors should know before making a decision.
President Donald Trump told a gathering of governors that Apple Inc. CEO Tim Cook promised him that the company’s manufacturing would shift from Mexico to the US during a meeting at the White House this week.
Banks have pulled a handful of US leveraged loans from the market this month, as investors are pushing back on aggressive pricing and credits with less favorable ratings, even though demand is outweighing the overall supply of deals.
Wall Street is still awaiting regulatory approval for the first full-blown private-asset ETFs, but for now opportunistic issuers are continuing to churn out products that claim to replicate the booming asset class — and stretching the definition of “liquid private equity.”
The second Trump presidency marks a new regime for government policy, with a range of potential macroeconomic and market implications.
It has been some time since the financial markets were in a position similar to where they are today.
Private credit has been one of the most talked-about segments in fixed income markets over the last few years.
If I were to ask investors to name the best businesses in America, I suspect many would point to the Magnificent Seven, and understandably so.
The Framers of the Constitution designed our government to be small. Not so small and weak as the one under the Articles of Confederation, which the Constitution replaced, but small nonetheless.
The healthcare industry's bellwether event, the JP Morgan Healthcare Conference (JPM25), kicked off the year as it traditionally does,
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through January. The latest debt level is at $937.253 billion, a record high. Margin debt was up 4.2% month-over-month (MoM) and up 33.5% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, the debt level was up 3.6% MoM and up 29.6% YoY.
While it seems unlikely that digital solutions or the internet will ever fully supplement human advisors, the ecosystem of financial advice and information is likely to continue to evolve and increasingly be online in the future.
The market defies more negative news because retail investors continue to step in and “buy the dip.” In our recent Bull Bear reports, we discussed the push by retail investors, but looking at retail sentiment is quite remarkable.
Trump Confusion Syndrome, or TCS, is distinct from Trump Derangement Syndrome in which afflicted people feel outrage about everything the president says or does. TCS isn’t about agreeing or disagreeing. It’s mostly about understanding. And then when something still seems wrong, feeling free to say it out loud.
How will potential trends in inflation, the US dollar and supply deficits across many raw material markets affect the environment for investing in commodities?
Markets always look their very best at the top - that's increasingly the case with gold as it nears $3,000 a troy ounce. It's behaving like a Veblen good, an item for which, contrary to the laws of economics, demand increases with price.
At the same time, the Fed has mostly ignored the impact of easy financial conditions—the combination of stock, bond, and credit conditions—offsetting increases in interest rates by bolstering wealth and confidence.
A closer look at the broader landscape reveals why the United States remains positioned to pursue a strategy of tariffs.
Faced with escalating labor expenses—from wages to benefits—businesses are rethinking traditional workforce expansion. Instead, they are investing in AI technologies that promise scalability, efficiency and unparalleled productivity.
Is an M&A boom brewing?
Municipal bonds were a hot topic at last week’s VettaFi Fixed Income Symposium — more than I expected them to be.
ETFs have always been a useful tool to play momentum and reversal in markets. However, the biggest question is always when to enter and exit such specific ETFs as the markets move through their cycles.
Bloomberg’s bonus calculator offers a revealing look at the divergent value of Wall Street employee payouts.
Integrating private assets may enhance target-date glide paths, but know your exposures.
In this note, we'd like to share our analysis of one potential solution we've been hearing about a lot lately. It involves leveraged direct index tax-loss harvesting.
If you’re looking to a popular stock market tracker like the S&P 500 Index to gauge the effect of President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs, don’t. It’s likely to be insulated from much of the fallout and therefore fail to reflect the true impact on US businesses.
Today we’ll talk about Trump, tariffs, cycles, and DOGE. Jumping right in…
Markets, as many of you are aware, don’t like uncertainty. And right now, there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy.
Broadcom looks to build off last year's strength, which should give bullish traders another year of potential gains.
Investors are hungry for a piece of the US data centers powering the artificial intelligence boom, and a handful of initial public offerings expected in 2025 would feed that appetite.
In a first quarter 2025 asset allocation report, Confluence expects resilient economic growth in the short term.
We analyze the impact of U.S. tariff proposals on markets and how investors can manage their portfolios accordingly.
Macquarie Group Ltd. is shuttering its US debt capital markets arm, a business that includes leveraged loan origination, syndication and trading, to focus resources on private credit, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
With age comes some insights and as we head into 2025, now is as good a time as any to look back on some of the lessons from my investing career that have served me well.
As an advisor and business owner, you need to realize you can create your own economy – an economy that you control and can leverage.
Investors plowed record cash into a pair of leveraged loan ETFs last week, in a high-conviction bet that the Federal Reserve will be slow to slash interest rates.
The urbanist and economist Edward Glaeser called cities “man’s greatest invention,” but cities have hit a bit of a rough patch lately. Why are cities so important to human life? What has gone wrong with them? And what can we do to make urban life better?
What a week! Markets were rocked by a series of developments—from AI news that could reshape the tech sector, to the Fed’s policy stance, and the tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China that could inject fresh uncertainty into global trade.
While it’s true that every administration brings policy shifts that can directly impact retirement savings, the speed and breadth of what is currently being proposed feels like we are headed into unprecedented territory.
Meme coins are just the tip of the iceberg representing unproductive uses of capital. I could write volumes on other examples. But given its current popularity, I use it to help spread the productivity gospel once again.
Carol Tomé, chief executive officer of United Parcel Service Inc., is ripping off a Band-Aid in one excruciating shot of pain to fix the courier’s post-pandemic problem with depressed profit margins.
A small band of Wall Street skeptics are moving to protect their credit portfolios against a market priced like nothing in the economy could possibly go wrong.
The stock market posted some noteworthy streaks of its own in the fourth quarter.
The global economy will grow at a pace close to that achieved in 2024, notes European Strategist Professor Jeremy Batstone-Carr.
Can corporate profits reignite after a rocky 2024? This earnings season could either fuel the market’s fire or leave it gasping for air.
Equity markets are facing a variety of headwinds, but the economy remains strong, and we believe there will be ample opportunities to invest in attractively valued quality growth companies in 2025.
While planning for a CMA (Capital Market Assumptions) at the close of the year—and in the wake of an unexpected U.S. election result—it’s tempting to adopt a short-term perspective, focusing on the uncertainties and anxieties generated by President-elect Trump’s policies and their potentially disruptive impact on the economy and the market.
Calamos’ Matt Kaufman explains the mechanics and rationale behind the Calamos Bitcoin Structured Alt Protection ETF – January (CBOJ). VettaFi’s Roxanna Islam examines the best-performing ETFs so far this year and discusses a recent surge of legacy asset managers entering the ETF space.
We explore how evolving priorities under the new U.S. administration may influence markets and investor outlooks.
Exchange-traded fund investors who placed record bets on the US technology space last week are getting crushed Monday as anxiety over competition from a Chinese startup’s AI model is hitting tech stocks hard.
Leveraged and Inverse Funds
How To Survive Falling Markets
One of the biggest challenges investors face today is navigating the most concentrated U.S. stock market in history, where the largest stocks represent a record share of total market value.
Gold Smashes Through $3,000 as Recession Fears Mount
Recent economic data has been all over the map. Consumer confidence sank this month to the lowest level since November 2022, yet the labor market remains strong, with historically low unemployment and rising wages.
Quality Is On Sale
News related to tariffs, DOGE, geopolitical unrest, NVIDIA earnings, and more significantly impacted U.S. stock markets recently, with the S&P 500 retreating over 2.5% during the second half of February. There are signs that meaningful structural shifts are taking place in the market.
Rebuilding Resilience in 60/40 Portfolios
The 60/40 portfolio, where 60% is invested in stocks and 40% in bonds, is the initial starting point for many portfolios. The exact asset mix is often adjusted based on an investor’s time horizon, risk tolerance, and financial goals, but the simple, proportional stock-bond combination is what is often considered a “balanced” portfolio.
Becoming Your Client’s Financial MD: A New Advisory Mindset
In today’s rapidly evolving financial landscape, advisors are expected to be more than just portfolio managers. Clients don’t just want investment recommendations—they seek a trusted partner who understands their financial needs, offers strategic guidance and provides peace of mind during turbulent times.
Been Here Before
Investors who have come to us in the last three to four years are probably wondering if we’ve been here before. By here, we mean a stretch of significant underperformance relative to our benchmarks. The answer is, yes. Let’s review those prior circumstances to see if we can learn something about where we might be headed.
Understanding Restrictive Covenants and Current Challenges to Noncompetes
While restrictive covenants serve an important role, their enforceability hinges on their scope, the dictates of state law and, ultimately, public policy considerations regarding balancing employer business interests with employee rights to pursue their careers.
Navigating Market Turbulence: Decoding the Impact of Tariffs and Economic Trends
As we wade into March, market volatility is at the forefront, leaving investors grappling with uncertainty surrounding tariffs and mixed economic signals. Though the S&P 500 experienced a bounce towards February's end, it slipped 1% overall, revealing lingering challenges for iconic tech stocks and the broader equity landscape.
Precidian’s Stuart Thomas Spotlights Currency Hedged Single Stock ETFs
Precidian’s Stuart Thomas spotlights the firm’s innovative ADRhedged ETFs and explains the rationale for removing currency exposure. VettaFi’s Kirsten Chang discusses several recent ETF launches, including offerings from State Street, VistaShares, Quantify Funds, and Roundhill.
Unlock Alpha in Mid-Market Private Equity
As more advisors look to private equity as an effective means of diversifying their clients’ portfolios and providing a fertile source of uncorrelated alpha, the middle market merits a closer look.
It's Not All About Tariffs
It is true that tariffs are a tax. It is also true that tariff policies have been volatile…on and off again…different carve outs…different countries…phone calls that change things. All of this clearly has an impact on the market. So, we are not surprised to see stock market volatility.
Bearish Sentiment Surges As If The Market Just Crashed
Investor’s bearish sentiment has surged to levels that generally align with previous market corrections and crashes.
Let the (Trade) War Begin, or Not: Uncertainty Is a Risk to Economic Activity
On March 4, 2025, the Trump administration imposed tariffs of 25% on Canada and Mexico and increased tariffs on Chinese imports to 20% from the previous 10% imposed earlier in the year.
February Featured Articles on Bitcoin, Tax-Loss Harvesting & More
During February, Advisor Perspectives featured a number of quality articles on topics near and dear to the advisory community.
America's Driving Habits: December 2024
Travel on all roads and streets increased in December. The 12-month moving average was up 0.13% month-over-month and was up 0.99% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.07% MoM and up 0.38% YoY.
Employment Report: 151K Jobs Added in February, Fewer Than Expected
The latest employment report showed that 151,000 jobs were added in February, falling short of the expected 159,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate unexpectedly inched up to 4.1%.
Can We All Invest Like Yale?
Cambria Investments CIO and founder Meb Faber explores David Swensen’s legendary investment strategy at Yale’s endowment, comparing its long-term performance to traditional portfolios and examining whether individual investors can replicate its success.
The Next Frontier: How Robotics, AI & Healthcare Tech Are Transforming Industries in 2025 & Beyond
The "2025+ Outlook Report" offers an analysis of how robotics, AI, and healthcare technology are converging to reshape industries globally.
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly: Tackling Long-Term Interest Rates
In his testimony before the House Financial Services Committee February 12, Federal Reserve Chair Powell was questioned about why mortgage rates had not declined.
Gimme Credit
Ever since interest rates got up off the floor in 2022, there’s been increased interest in credit, and that’s why I’m devoting this memo to it. It’ll come a little closer than usual to “talking my book,” but I think the subject justifies that.
Ray Dalio’s ‘All Weather’ Strategy Enters ETF Land During Turmoil
Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio’s famous “All Weather” strategy has arrived in the exchange-traded fund market, just as the kind of macro-driven turmoil it seeks to guard against sweeps global assets.
CAPE-5: A Different Measure Of Valuation
One of the most referenced valuation measures is Dr. Robert Shiller’s Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings Ratio, known as CAPE.
Q4 Earnings Recap: US Large-Cap Earnings Justify Their Current Valuation
We view quarterly earnings season as a critical checkup on how markets are handling current challenges.
Anarchy in the USA
Unlike most of the rest of the world, I will attempt to minimize all there is to say about the beginning of the next 4 years, as the persistent yack and what to make of it reverberates in all corners of the financial globe.
Where the Stock Market Goes, the US Economy Will Follow
There’s an old Wall Street saying that “the stock market is not the economy.” That’s usually true. But, in this economic cycle, stock market gains have become an increasingly important driver of consumer spending, helping to fuel growth as other areas of the economy cool.
Multi-Asset Positioning in a Trump 2.0 Policy Regime
With major US policy change unfolding, flexibility across and within asset classes will be critical.
Real Talk With Rias: Considering Moving Upmarket? Here Are Some Issues to Consider
Many independent firms and Registered Investment Advisors aspire to move upmarket, targeting wealthier clients who demand more sophisticated financial solutions.
Two Policy Risks in the Spotlight
Looming U.S. and global policy shifts may potentially rattle markets, but a tactical and flexible approach could help investors navigate risks and opportunities regardless of how events play out.
International Quality
The perfect pairing for your U.S. large-cap portfolio?
Fixed Income: Taking Risk in Moderation
Should you avoid lower-rated, riskier investments like high-yield corporate bonds or bank loans? Not necessarily, but you should understand the risks.
An Inside Look at the Q4 2024 GDP Second Estimate
Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q4 GDP second estimate, three of the four components made positive contributions.
Big Money Flocks Back to a Levered Trade That Went Bust in 2008
A diversified investment strategy that seeks to juice returns through leverage is finding new love among big money managers — more than a decade after it blew up during the 2008 financial crisis.
Top-Performing U.S. Fixed Income Sectors of 2024: Securitized Outpaces the Agg
In the report, John Kerschner, Head of US Securitized Products & Portfolio Manager, and John Lloyd, Lead for the Multi-Sector Credit Strategies & Portfolio Manager, review the best-performing U.S. fixed income sectors of 2024 – what worked, what didn’t, and what it means for investors going forward.
Real Estate Traders Should Proceed With Cautious Optimism
A healthy jobs report should keep real estate traders appeased, but cautious optimism is warranted moving forward.
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index: 19th Straight Record High in December
Home prices continued to trend upwards in December as the benchmark national index rose for a 23rd consecutive month to a new all-time high. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.5% increase MoM, and a 4.0% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to 0.2% and YoY fell to -0.8%.
Retail Exuberance Sets Market Up For A Correction
Retail investors are expected to become more bullish about increasing equity exposure when markets rise.
What Scares the S&P 500?
In the second half of 2024 the risk premia associated with inflation releases declined relative to labor market data as the Fed shifted focus toward labor market and away from inflation risk. With elevated S&P 500 Index concentration and the market leadership of the artificial intelligence (AI) theme, some single company earnings (NVIDIA) have been rising risk events for the entire index.
The Government Deficits Land in the Deepest Pockets
With our most reliable valuation measures more extreme than both the 1929 and 2000 market peaks, we continue to believe that the stock market is tracing out the extended peak of the third great speculative bubble in U.S. history.
JPMorgan Earmarks $50 Billion More for Its Direct-Lending Push
JPMorgan Chase & Co. is dramatically ramping up its direct-lending effort, setting aside an additional $50 billion to capture a bigger chunk of the fast-growing market.
Computing Power Is Going the Way of Oil in Markets
There are several answers, but an important financial one is that recent fundamental market changes have been much more disruptive for egg buyers than computer-processing users.
5 Things to Consider About Taxable Municipal Bonds
Taxable municipal bonds may be an attractive option for investors in lower tax brackets, but there are things investors should know before making a decision.
Trump Says Cook Shifting Apple Manufacturing From Mexico to US
President Donald Trump told a gathering of governors that Apple Inc. CEO Tim Cook promised him that the company’s manufacturing would shift from Mexico to the US during a meeting at the White House this week.
Banks Pull Debt Deals as Investors Push Back on Aggressive Terms
Banks have pulled a handful of US leveraged loans from the market this month, as investors are pushing back on aggressive pricing and credits with less favorable ratings, even though demand is outweighing the overall supply of deals.
Wall Street Is Selling ETFs That Mimic the Private Equity Boom
Wall Street is still awaiting regulatory approval for the first full-blown private-asset ETFs, but for now opportunistic issuers are continuing to churn out products that claim to replicate the booming asset class — and stretching the definition of “liquid private equity.”
Systematic Equity Outlook: Trading Policy Uncertainty
The second Trump presidency marks a new regime for government policy, with a range of potential macroeconomic and market implications.
Navigating a Foggy Cycle with Value
It has been some time since the financial markets were in a position similar to where they are today.
Public vs. Private Credit: Finding Their Lanes in 2025
Private credit has been one of the most talked-about segments in fixed income markets over the last few years.
Wall Street’s Utility Players Are Now Profit Machines
If I were to ask investors to name the best businesses in America, I suspect many would point to the Magnificent Seven, and understandably so.
The Constitution at Work
The Framers of the Constitution designed our government to be small. Not so small and weak as the one under the Articles of Confederation, which the Constitution replaced, but small nonetheless.
2025 Outlook: Healthcare Technology & Innovation
The healthcare industry's bellwether event, the JP Morgan Healthcare Conference (JPM25), kicked off the year as it traditionally does,
Margin Debt Hits Record High with 4.2% Jump in January
FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through January. The latest debt level is at $937.253 billion, a record high. Margin debt was up 4.2% month-over-month (MoM) and up 33.5% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, the debt level was up 3.6% MoM and up 29.6% YoY.
Is the Future of Financial Advice Online?
While it seems unlikely that digital solutions or the internet will ever fully supplement human advisors, the ecosystem of financial advice and information is likely to continue to evolve and increasingly be online in the future.
Bull Bear Report – Technical Update
The market defies more negative news because retail investors continue to step in and “buy the dip.” In our recent Bull Bear reports, we discussed the push by retail investors, but looking at retail sentiment is quite remarkable.
Trump Confusion Syndrome
Trump Confusion Syndrome, or TCS, is distinct from Trump Derangement Syndrome in which afflicted people feel outrage about everything the president says or does. TCS isn’t about agreeing or disagreeing. It’s mostly about understanding. And then when something still seems wrong, feeling free to say it out loud.
2025 Commodity Outlook: Three Areas to Watch
How will potential trends in inflation, the US dollar and supply deficits across many raw material markets affect the environment for investing in commodities?
Goldbug FOMO Is Setting Up the Market for a Fall
Markets always look their very best at the top - that's increasingly the case with gold as it nears $3,000 a troy ounce. It's behaving like a Veblen good, an item for which, contrary to the laws of economics, demand increases with price.
Navigating the (New) Conundrum
At the same time, the Fed has mostly ignored the impact of easy financial conditions—the combination of stock, bond, and credit conditions—offsetting increases in interest rates by bolstering wealth and confidence.
The Power of Trade: Why the U.S. Uses Tariffs as a Negotiation Tool
A closer look at the broader landscape reveals why the United States remains positioned to pursue a strategy of tariffs.
Smart Savings: How AI Is Helping Companies Do More With Less
Faced with escalating labor expenses—from wages to benefits—businesses are rethinking traditional workforce expansion. Instead, they are investing in AI technologies that promise scalability, efficiency and unparalleled productivity.
Merger Arbitrage: The Stars Could Be Aligning
Is an M&A boom brewing?
Municipal Bonds Favored by Many Advisors
Municipal bonds were a hot topic at last week’s VettaFi Fixed Income Symposium — more than I expected them to be.
Momentum and Reversal in Markets and ETFs
ETFs have always been a useful tool to play momentum and reversal in markets. However, the biggest question is always when to enter and exit such specific ETFs as the markets move through their cycles.
Goldman Sachs’ Exclusive Investing Club Is a Powerful Draw
Bloomberg’s bonus calculator offers a revealing look at the divergent value of Wall Street employee payouts.
Bringing the Private-Asset Dimension to Target-Date Glide Paths
Integrating private assets may enhance target-date glide paths, but know your exposures.
Out of the Frying Pan and Into the Fire: Selling a Highly Appreciated Stock Without Paying Taxes?
In this note, we'd like to share our analysis of one potential solution we've been hearing about a lot lately. It involves leveraged direct index tax-loss harvesting.
The S&P 500 Is Too Big to Falter on Trump’s Tariffs
If you’re looking to a popular stock market tracker like the S&P 500 Index to gauge the effect of President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs, don’t. It’s likely to be insulated from much of the fallout and therefore fail to reflect the true impact on US businesses.
Serious Side Effects
Today we’ll talk about Trump, tariffs, cycles, and DOGE. Jumping right in…
Could Trump’s Tariff Revenues Fund a New U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund?
Markets, as many of you are aware, don’t like uncertainty. And right now, there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy.
Broadcom Looks to Build Off Last Year's Strength
Broadcom looks to build off last year's strength, which should give bullish traders another year of potential gains.
Investors Eye Data Center IPOs to Ride AI Infrastructure Boom
Investors are hungry for a piece of the US data centers powering the artificial intelligence boom, and a handful of initial public offerings expected in 2025 would feed that appetite.
Confluence Asset Allocation Quarterly (First Quarter 2025)
In a first quarter 2025 asset allocation report, Confluence expects resilient economic growth in the short term.
What the U.S. Tariffs Mean for Investors
We analyze the impact of U.S. tariff proposals on markets and how investors can manage their portfolios accordingly.
Macquarie Shuts US Debt Capital Markets in Private Credit Pivot
Macquarie Group Ltd. is shuttering its US debt capital markets arm, a business that includes leveraged loan origination, syndication and trading, to focus resources on private credit, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
Lessons From My Investing Career
With age comes some insights and as we head into 2025, now is as good a time as any to look back on some of the lessons from my investing career that have served me well.
Create Your Own Economy, Zoom In & Grow Your Practice
As an advisor and business owner, you need to realize you can create your own economy – an economy that you control and can leverage.
Traders Rush to Safety in Loan ETFs Again on Interest-Rate Pain
Investors plowed record cash into a pair of leveraged loan ETFs last week, in a high-conviction bet that the Federal Reserve will be slow to slash interest rates.
Better Together: Why Cities Are Man’s Greatest Invention and How We Could Fix them
The urbanist and economist Edward Glaeser called cities “man’s greatest invention,” but cities have hit a bit of a rough patch lately. Why are cities so important to human life? What has gone wrong with them? And what can we do to make urban life better?
A Pivotal Week: Tech Shift, Fed Patience, Tariff Turbulence
What a week! Markets were rocked by a series of developments—from AI news that could reshape the tech sector, to the Fed’s policy stance, and the tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China that could inject fresh uncertainty into global trade.
How a Transformed Washington May Change Retirement Savings
While it’s true that every administration brings policy shifts that can directly impact retirement savings, the speed and breadth of what is currently being proposed feels like we are headed into unprecedented territory.
Meme Coins Do Not Create Wealth, They Destroy It
Meme coins are just the tip of the iceberg representing unproductive uses of capital. I could write volumes on other examples. But given its current popularity, I use it to help spread the productivity gospel once again.
UPS’ Amazon Reduction Is the Right Move
Carol Tomé, chief executive officer of United Parcel Service Inc., is ripping off a Band-Aid in one excruciating shot of pain to fix the courier’s post-pandemic problem with depressed profit margins.
Credit Skeptics Place a $10 Billion Bet in High-Priced Market
A small band of Wall Street skeptics are moving to protect their credit portfolios against a market priced like nothing in the economy could possibly go wrong.
We're Going Streaking
The stock market posted some noteworthy streaks of its own in the fourth quarter.
2025 International Outlook
The global economy will grow at a pace close to that achieved in 2024, notes European Strategist Professor Jeremy Batstone-Carr.
Trading Q4 Earnings: Will Bulls Fly or Just Get Gored?
Can corporate profits reignite after a rocky 2024? This earnings season could either fuel the market’s fire or leave it gasping for air.
Equity Outlook: Climbing the Wall of Worry
Equity markets are facing a variety of headwinds, but the economy remains strong, and we believe there will be ample opportunities to invest in attractively valued quality growth companies in 2025.
Missing the Forest For the Tree: Lumen R4A Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions
While planning for a CMA (Capital Market Assumptions) at the close of the year—and in the wake of an unexpected U.S. election result—it’s tempting to adopt a short-term perspective, focusing on the uncertainties and anxieties generated by President-elect Trump’s policies and their potentially disruptive impact on the economy and the market.
Calamos’ Matt Kaufman Explains World’s First 100% Downside Protected Bitcoin ETF
Calamos’ Matt Kaufman explains the mechanics and rationale behind the Calamos Bitcoin Structured Alt Protection ETF – January (CBOJ). VettaFi’s Roxanna Islam examines the best-performing ETFs so far this year and discusses a recent surge of legacy asset managers entering the ETF space.
The Price of Progress
We explore how evolving priorities under the new U.S. administration may influence markets and investor outlooks.
Bullish Tech Traders Made Record Wrong-Way ETF Bets Before Rout
Exchange-traded fund investors who placed record bets on the US technology space last week are getting crushed Monday as anxiety over competition from a Chinese startup’s AI model is hitting tech stocks hard.