The Federal Reserve concluded its second meeting of the year by keeping the federal funds rate (FFR) at 4.25-4.50%, as expected.
Two Sessions, or Lianghui, is the popular name for the annual meeting of China’s top legislative and consultative bodies. These gatherings are closely watched by overseas observers as they provide key insight into China’s political landscape, economic priorities and overall policy direction.
As of the end of trading on Thursday, March 13, the S&P 500 closed down 10 percent from its all-time high, marking an official correction. It was the first correction since October 2023—17 months ago.
One of the textbook drivers of alpha is an information edge. Having more information, advanced ways to use that information, and the ability to react to it before anyone else has been a massive advantage throughout the history of markets.
I recently celebrated another trip around the sun, which meant I couldn’t let the occasion pass without enjoying some birthday cake.
The U.S. housing market has been a critical factor in the broader economic landscape, and its trends have profound implications.
Although annuities can offer a guaranteed income stream in retirement, they come with significant risks and complexities. It's essential to thoroughly understand these products and consider whether they align with your financial goals and risk tolerance.
For years, Federal Reserve meetings have been the main event on Wall Street as the central bank fought to contain runaway inflation.
US housing starts rose in February by more than forecast after a weather-related plunge, led by a pickup in single-family home construction underpinned by builder incentives.
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, building permits fell for a third straight month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.456 million in February. This marks a 1.2% decrease from January and a 6.9% decline compared to one year ago.
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, housing starts jumped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.501 million in February. This marks an 11.2% increase from January but a 2.9% decline compared to one year ago.
Last week’s economic data was plagued by uncertainty. A brief respite in inflation pressures was overshadowed by sentiment concerns.
Unpredictable U.S. tariff policy has heightened concerns about a potential U.S. economic recession.
One of the biggest challenges investors face today is navigating the most concentrated U.S. stock market in history, where the largest stocks represent a record share of total market value.
Builder confidence fell for a second straight month as economic uncertainty, tariff threats, and elevated construction costs continue to weigh on sentiment. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) dropped to 39 this month, down 3 points from February and the lowest level since August. The latest reading was below the 42 forecast.
Gen Z is right to have negative feelings about the economy. Not only were its oldest members entering the workforce as the pandemic struck, but those in their early to mid-20s are also now bearing the brunt of a labor market that’s largely been frozen in place for the past two years.
Understanding actual inflation – instead of what the media’s narrative tells you it should be – is critical to your investment planning. It is one thing for a pundit to say this or that, but it is another to look at the actual data for yourself.
The yield on the 10-year note ended March 14, 2025 at 4.31%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 4.02% and the 30-year note ended at 4.62%.
As of Q4 2024, the latest Fed balance sheet indicates that household net worth has risen 186% since reaching its 2009 low. However, when adjusted for inflation, household net worth has actually increased by only 93% since the 2009 trough.
News related to tariffs, DOGE, geopolitical unrest, NVIDIA earnings, and more significantly impacted U.S. stock markets recently, with the S&P 500 retreating over 2.5% during the second half of February. There are signs that meaningful structural shifts are taking place in the market.
The 60/40 portfolio, where 60% is invested in stocks and 40% in bonds, is the initial starting point for many portfolios. The exact asset mix is often adjusted based on an investor’s time horizon, risk tolerance, and financial goals, but the simple, proportional stock-bond combination is what is often considered a “balanced” portfolio.
It was inevitable. Certain pieces of the market roared to insane valuations last year. Investors poured money into the markets and speculated stocks would keep rising forever. But, sentiment has shifted.
The Liberal Party of Canada has wrapped up its leadership race, with Mark Carney winning by an overwhelming margin.
The average US 30-year mortgage rate declined for a sixth straight week to the lowest level since early December, sparking a pickup in purchase and refinancing activity.
There has been further indication that the U.S. will underperform during a negative market, according to DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach.
Recent US stock weakness may be related to a downturn in US economic data and headline shocks related to tariffs.
President Donald Trump is attempting the most sweeping transformation of government and policy in decades. The White House is moving furiously to slash spending, expand tariffs, repeal regulations and rewrite tax rules.
For decades, the U.S. dollar’s dominance has rested on two pillars: America’s deep capital markets and its global security alliances. Today, both are under strain.
Economic growth, earnings performance, and rising fiscal spending coupled with "America First" policies are driving international stock markets.
Global investment themes are shifting toward infrastructure, cybersecurity and energy expansion as demand outpaces supply in key sectors.
Parametric’s tax optimized ladders (TOL) solution may help to enhance after-tax yield by seeking to optimize the allocation between tax-exempt and taxable bonds, based on an investor’s own tax rate and the relative value between sectors.
Precidian’s Stuart Thomas spotlights the firm’s innovative ADRhedged ETFs and explains the rationale for removing currency exposure. VettaFi’s Kirsten Chang discusses several recent ETF launches, including offerings from State Street, VistaShares, Quantify Funds, and Roundhill.
Blackstone Inc. has won approval from the US Securities and Exchange Commission to launch its newest private credit fund, one of the latest efforts to give individuals access to assets that are mostly backed by institutions.
At the start of the year, our Investment Strategy Committee outlook was positive for both the economy and the equity market, supported by strong consumer, labor market, and corporate fundamentals.
On February 19, 2025, the Fed made a confounding statement about QT, aka balance sheet reduction. Per its latest FOMC minutes: “several participants suggest halting or slowing balance sheet reduction pending debt ceiling resolution.” Might the Fed be offering investors a liquidity warning cloaked as a reaction to a fiscal crisis?
A lack of affordability has hindered housing transactions the past two years, frustrating would-be buyers and, more recently, hammering the stocks of developers.
The European Central Bank will likely continue to cut interest rates, but future decisions could be more contentious.
We highlight some underreported positive developments that could keep economic growth on track and support higher equity prices in the months ahead.
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said the neutral level for the central bank’s policy rate had likely risen since the Covid-19 pandemic.
Cambria Investments CIO and founder Meb Faber explores David Swensen’s legendary investment strategy at Yale’s endowment, comparing its long-term performance to traditional portfolios and examining whether individual investors can replicate its success.
Q4 company earnings offered a lot to cheer at the start of the year, even as U.S. stocks contended with bouts of volatility.
One month into President Donald Trump’s new term, financial markets are adjusting to a rapidly shifting economic and policy environment. Investors are watching closely as tariffs, interest rate expectations and regulatory changes take center stage.
The municipal bond tax exemption is back in focus. We believe the threat to infrastructure investment outweighs the modest revenue benefits, which could keep the risk of elimination or significant curtailment low.
In his testimony before the House Financial Services Committee February 12, Federal Reserve Chair Powell was questioned about why mortgage rates had not declined.
Join Michael O'Shea as he explores how private real estate investments can enhance your approach to generating sustainable, tax-advantaged income.
Ever since interest rates got up off the floor in 2022, there’s been increased interest in credit, and that’s why I’m devoting this memo to it. It’ll come a little closer than usual to “talking my book,” but I think the subject justifies that.
Opportunities have increased significantly in frontier markets debt as more countries have made a conscious effort to open their capital markets to international investors and currencies have become more fairly valued.
One of the most referenced valuation measures is Dr. Robert Shiller’s Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings Ratio, known as CAPE.
As daily headlines drive volatility, the market has avoided overreacting thus far.
We view quarterly earnings season as a critical checkup on how markets are handling current challenges.
We manage risk tactically over the short-term by investing across a broad array of themes and asset classes including cash.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its February Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 53.5—above the forecast of 52.5. This marks the eighth consecutive month of expansion despite anxieties over tariffs and federal spending cuts.
The February U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 51.0, higher than the 49.7 forecast. The reading marks the 25th consecutive month of expansion but is the slowest growth since November 2023.
According to Research Affiliates’ Asset Allocation Interactive (AAI) online capital market expectations tool, U.S. large-cap equities are expected to yield 3.4% annually over the next 10 years compared to 9.1% for EM equities and 7% for REITs. This left many webinar participants wondering, How does this extra return square with these assets having similar betas?
A holistic approach may help insurance investors navigate an expansive opportunity set.
February’s market turbulence saw investors pivot toward defensive strategies as policy uncertainty intensified, driving a broad market rotation from mega-cap tech stocks to bonds, gold, and international equities.
Heightened economic uncertainty—propelled mainly by trade policy—has unearthed weakness in the equity market, with most pain felt under the market's surface.
Ultra-wealthy investors have unique needs and goals. While a typical high net worth client is focused on the next dozen years, these more deep-pocketed clients – like their institutional counterparts – have a much longer time horizon.
President Trump’s nomination of Paul Atkins as the next SEC Chair signals a potential sea change in regulatory approach, one that could dramatically reshape the landscape of alternative investments.
Alternative investments including hedge funds and real estate will disappear from the portfolios of pension funds and endowments over the next 10 to 20 years, well-known institutional investment consultant Richard Ennis concludes in a recent report.
It’s not U.S. tariffs we need to be fixated on to gauge China’s economic growth trajectory but the ability of its leadership to rebuild confidence among entrepreneurs and consumers.
After a record year for fixed income ETFs in 2024, investors are turning to ultra-short bond ETFs, the safest fixed income ETFs available.
The future is impossible to predict, but looking at the patterns around price/earnings ratios can provide some insight about what one might expect.
Today we are going to revisit that matrix updated through 2024. We will see what we got right and wrong, what further inferences we can now make and why I think it confirms my general shift in market strategy over the past few years.
President Xi Jinping heads into China’s biggest political huddle of the year with his economy finally getting back some swagger. Donald Trump’s rising tariffs will test Beijing’s ability to sustain that momentum.
The U.S. manufacturing sector grew at its fastest rate since June 2022 in February. The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI rose for a second straight month to 52.7, exceeding the 51.6 forecast.
Despite GDP figures indicating continued expansion, weakening consumer confidence and persistent inflation concerns speak to uncertainty.
Many independent firms and Registered Investment Advisors aspire to move upmarket, targeting wealthier clients who demand more sophisticated financial solutions.
Looming U.S. and global policy shifts may potentially rattle markets, but a tactical and flexible approach could help investors navigate risks and opportunities regardless of how events play out.
Valid until the market close on March 31, 2025
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
With the release of January's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.84% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.51% when we adjust for inflation, the largest monthly gain in a year. The year-over-year metrics are 3.58% nominal and 1.05% real, the lowest level since 2022.
We delve into the unprecedented level of equity risk investors are taking, the record-high uncertainty measures facing further impacts from deglobalization, and the benefits of maintaining a diversified portfolio through it all.
Should you avoid lower-rated, riskier investments like high-yield corporate bonds or bank loans? Not necessarily, but you should understand the risks.
An aggressive U.S. tariff regime will come down hard on major economies.
The fourth quarter 2024 earnings season more-or-less wraps up this week with the final trickle of retailers coming in, as well as the highly anticipated report from Nvidia which was out yesterday afternoon.
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index fell more than expected in January, dropping to its lowest level on record. The index came in at 70.6, a 4.6% decline from the previous month and a 5.2% drop from one year ago. Pending home sales were expected to fall 0.9% month-over-month.
In the report, John Kerschner, Head of US Securitized Products & Portfolio Manager, and John Lloyd, Lead for the Multi-Sector Credit Strategies & Portfolio Manager, review the best-performing U.S. fixed income sectors of 2024 – what worked, what didn’t, and what it means for investors going forward.
Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) takes a pivotal role in shaping how America approaches cryptocurrency and blockchain technology.
We recently sat down with Justin Owens, our senior director and co-head of strategic asset allocation, to discuss the next phase of liability-driven investing (LDI) and the key trends driving this evolution. Below is a recap of our conversation.
A healthy jobs report should keep real estate traders appeased, but cautious optimism is warranted moving forward.
Warren Buffett's latest shareholder letter contains the usual folksy mix of wisdom and humor.
New home sales fell more than expected while prices jumped to a two-year high last month. According to the Census Bureau, new home sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 657,000 in January, below the 679,000 forecast. This represents a 10.5% decline from December's upwardly revised rate of 734,000 and a 1.1% drop from one year ago.
The U.S. economy remains structurally productive. American Economic Exceptionalism is powered by innovation and labor flexibility.
We explore drivers that may contribute to continued outperformance of European stocks since the bull market began in October 2022.
On this episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth discussed the BondBloxx Private Credit CLO ETF (PCMM) with Chuck Jaffe of Money Life. The pair discussed several topics related to the fund to give investors a deeper understanding of the ETF overall.
Home prices continued to trend upwards in December as the benchmark national index rose for a 23rd consecutive month to a new all-time high. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.5% increase MoM, and a 4.0% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to 0.2% and YoY fell to -0.8%.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) rose to 436.1 in December, reaching a new all-time high. U.S. house prices were up 0.4% from the previous month and up 4.7% from one year ago. However, after adjusting for inflation, the real index was lower at 201.8, a record high. Real house prices were flat month-over-month and up 2.8% year-over-year.
The US Federal Reserve has begun a process with vast implications for the global economy: rethinking the framework by which it sets the interest rates that influence prices and lending in the US and just about everywhere else.
When constructing a target-date fund (TDF) glide path, providers have many decisions to make, such as what asset classes to include, when to include them, and how much to allocate to each.
The managed account industry has seen tremendous growth and client adoption, with assets increasing by 28% over the last year and 50% over the past two years.
Real Estate
Fed’s Interest Rate Decision: March 19, 2025
The Federal Reserve concluded its second meeting of the year by keeping the federal funds rate (FFR) at 4.25-4.50%, as expected.
China Stimulus: Better Luck Next Year
Two Sessions, or Lianghui, is the popular name for the annual meeting of China’s top legislative and consultative bodies. These gatherings are closely watched by overseas observers as they provide key insight into China’s political landscape, economic priorities and overall policy direction.
The Market Has Corrected: What’s Ahead?
As of the end of trading on Thursday, March 13, the S&P 500 closed down 10 percent from its all-time high, marking an official correction. It was the first correction since October 2023—17 months ago.
How To Invest with Clarity Through Market Volatility
One of the textbook drivers of alpha is an information edge. Having more information, advanced ways to use that information, and the ability to react to it before anyone else has been a massive advantage throughout the history of markets.
Doing More With the Same: The Power of OCIO
I recently celebrated another trip around the sun, which meant I couldn’t let the occasion pass without enjoying some birthday cake.
The U.S. Housing Market: Risks, Realities, and the Road Ahead
The U.S. housing market has been a critical factor in the broader economic landscape, and its trends have profound implications.
Are Annuities Right for Retirement?
Although annuities can offer a guaranteed income stream in retirement, they come with significant risks and complexities. It's essential to thoroughly understand these products and consider whether they align with your financial goals and risk tolerance.
Fed Day Takes on New Meaning in Stock Market Transfixed by Trump
For years, Federal Reserve meetings have been the main event on Wall Street as the central bank fought to contain runaway inflation.
New US Home Construction Rebounds After Storm-Ridden Month
US housing starts rose in February by more than forecast after a weather-related plunge, led by a pickup in single-family home construction underpinned by builder incentives.
Building Permits Fall 1.2% in February
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, building permits fell for a third straight month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.456 million in February. This marks a 1.2% decrease from January and a 6.9% decline compared to one year ago.
Housing Starts Jump 11.2% in February
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, housing starts jumped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.501 million in February. This marks an 11.2% increase from January but a 2.9% decline compared to one year ago.
Weekly Economic Snapshot: Inflation Relief Tempered by Sentiment Concerns
Last week’s economic data was plagued by uncertainty. A brief respite in inflation pressures was overshadowed by sentiment concerns.
Schwab Market Perspective: Recession Risk Rising?
Unpredictable U.S. tariff policy has heightened concerns about a potential U.S. economic recession.
How To Survive Falling Markets
One of the biggest challenges investors face today is navigating the most concentrated U.S. stock market in history, where the largest stocks represent a record share of total market value.
NAHB Housing Market Index: Uncertainty Drags Builder Confidence to 7-Month Low
Builder confidence fell for a second straight month as economic uncertainty, tariff threats, and elevated construction costs continue to weigh on sentiment. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) dropped to 39 this month, down 3 points from February and the lowest level since August. The latest reading was below the 42 forecast.
Gen Z’s Job Recession Needs Urgent Attention
Gen Z is right to have negative feelings about the economy. Not only were its oldest members entering the workforce as the pandemic struck, but those in their early to mid-20s are also now bearing the brunt of a labor market that’s largely been frozen in place for the past two years.
The Inflationista Illuminati
Understanding actual inflation – instead of what the media’s narrative tells you it should be – is critical to your investment planning. It is one thing for a pundit to say this or that, but it is another to look at the actual data for yourself.
Treasury Yields Snapshot: March 14, 2025
The yield on the 10-year note ended March 14, 2025 at 4.31%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 4.02% and the 30-year note ended at 4.62%.
Household Net Worth Q4 2024: The "Real" Story
As of Q4 2024, the latest Fed balance sheet indicates that household net worth has risen 186% since reaching its 2009 low. However, when adjusted for inflation, household net worth has actually increased by only 93% since the 2009 trough.
Quality Is On Sale
News related to tariffs, DOGE, geopolitical unrest, NVIDIA earnings, and more significantly impacted U.S. stock markets recently, with the S&P 500 retreating over 2.5% during the second half of February. There are signs that meaningful structural shifts are taking place in the market.
Rebuilding Resilience in 60/40 Portfolios
The 60/40 portfolio, where 60% is invested in stocks and 40% in bonds, is the initial starting point for many portfolios. The exact asset mix is often adjusted based on an investor’s time horizon, risk tolerance, and financial goals, but the simple, proportional stock-bond combination is what is often considered a “balanced” portfolio.
Are You Ready for the Rotation?
It was inevitable. Certain pieces of the market roared to insane valuations last year. Investors poured money into the markets and speculated stocks would keep rising forever. But, sentiment has shifted.
Election Debrief: Why the Era of Uncertainty May Continue in Canada
The Liberal Party of Canada has wrapped up its leadership race, with Mark Carney winning by an overwhelming margin.
US Mortgage Rates Drop for a Sixth Week to Lowest Since December
The average US 30-year mortgage rate declined for a sixth straight week to the lowest level since early December, sparking a pickup in purchase and refinancing activity.
Gundlach: U.S. Stocks Will Underperform in Recession as Odds Reach 60%
There has been further indication that the U.S. will underperform during a negative market, according to DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach.
Data Determination vs. Headline ‘Hell’: Making Sense of the US Market’s Crosscurrents
Recent US stock weakness may be related to a downturn in US economic data and headline shocks related to tariffs.
There’s No Recession Alarm in the Collective Wisdom of Markets
President Donald Trump is attempting the most sweeping transformation of government and policy in decades. The White House is moving furiously to slash spending, expand tariffs, repeal regulations and rewrite tax rules.
Why the U.S. Dollar Is Losing Some of Its Luster
For decades, the U.S. dollar’s dominance has rested on two pillars: America’s deep capital markets and its global security alliances. Today, both are under strain.
Making International Great Again?
Economic growth, earnings performance, and rising fiscal spending coupled with "America First" policies are driving international stock markets.
From AI to Infrastructure: The 10 Investment Themes Defining the Next Five Years
Global investment themes are shifting toward infrastructure, cybersecurity and energy expansion as demand outpaces supply in key sectors.
Tax Optimized Ladders: Elevating Taxes as a Crucial Element of Customization in Fixed Income Portfolios
Parametric’s tax optimized ladders (TOL) solution may help to enhance after-tax yield by seeking to optimize the allocation between tax-exempt and taxable bonds, based on an investor’s own tax rate and the relative value between sectors.
Precidian’s Stuart Thomas Spotlights Currency Hedged Single Stock ETFs
Precidian’s Stuart Thomas spotlights the firm’s innovative ADRhedged ETFs and explains the rationale for removing currency exposure. VettaFi’s Kirsten Chang discusses several recent ETF launches, including offerings from State Street, VistaShares, Quantify Funds, and Roundhill.
SEC Approves Retail-Friendly Blackstone Private Credit Fund
Blackstone Inc. has won approval from the US Securities and Exchange Commission to launch its newest private credit fund, one of the latest efforts to give individuals access to assets that are mostly backed by institutions.
Despite Recent Volatility, We Maintain Our Constructive Outlook
At the start of the year, our Investment Strategy Committee outlook was positive for both the economy and the equity market, supported by strong consumer, labor market, and corporate fundamentals.
Never Let a Crisis Go to Waste
On February 19, 2025, the Fed made a confounding statement about QT, aka balance sheet reduction. Per its latest FOMC minutes: “several participants suggest halting or slowing balance sheet reduction pending debt ceiling resolution.” Might the Fed be offering investors a liquidity warning cloaked as a reaction to a fiscal crisis?
These Unpopular Mortgages May Be the Key to Affordable Housing
A lack of affordability has hindered housing transactions the past two years, frustrating would-be buyers and, more recently, hammering the stocks of developers.
ECB: It Will Get Harder From Here
The European Central Bank will likely continue to cut interest rates, but future decisions could be more contentious.
Falling Gas Prices Could Provide a Boost to Consumer Spending
We highlight some underreported positive developments that could keep economic growth on track and support higher equity prices in the months ahead.
Fed’s Bowman Says Economy’s Neutral Rate Higher Since Covid
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said the neutral level for the central bank’s policy rate had likely risen since the Covid-19 pandemic.
Can We All Invest Like Yale?
Cambria Investments CIO and founder Meb Faber explores David Swensen’s legendary investment strategy at Yale’s endowment, comparing its long-term performance to traditional portfolios and examining whether individual investors can replicate its success.
Q4 Company Earnings Reveal Key Areas of U.S. Equity Exceptionalism
Q4 company earnings offered a lot to cheer at the start of the year, even as U.S. stocks contended with bouts of volatility.
Trump’s Economic Landscape: What Investors Need to Know
One month into President Donald Trump’s new term, financial markets are adjusting to a rapidly shifting economic and policy environment. Investors are watching closely as tariffs, interest rate expectations and regulatory changes take center stage.
Is Eliminating the Tax Exemption on Municipal Bonds Worth the Cost?
The municipal bond tax exemption is back in focus. We believe the threat to infrastructure investment outweighs the modest revenue benefits, which could keep the risk of elimination or significant curtailment low.
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly: Tackling Long-Term Interest Rates
In his testimony before the House Financial Services Committee February 12, Federal Reserve Chair Powell was questioned about why mortgage rates had not declined.
Optimizing Portfolios with Tax-Efficient Income Strategies Through Private Real Estate
Join Michael O'Shea as he explores how private real estate investments can enhance your approach to generating sustainable, tax-advantaged income.
Gimme Credit
Ever since interest rates got up off the floor in 2022, there’s been increased interest in credit, and that’s why I’m devoting this memo to it. It’ll come a little closer than usual to “talking my book,” but I think the subject justifies that.
6 Reasons to Consider Frontier Markets Debt
Opportunities have increased significantly in frontier markets debt as more countries have made a conscious effort to open their capital markets to international investors and currencies have become more fairly valued.
CAPE-5: A Different Measure Of Valuation
One of the most referenced valuation measures is Dr. Robert Shiller’s Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings Ratio, known as CAPE.
Strength of US Economy Continues to Offer Stability
As daily headlines drive volatility, the market has avoided overreacting thus far.
Q4 Earnings Recap: US Large-Cap Earnings Justify Their Current Valuation
We view quarterly earnings season as a critical checkup on how markets are handling current challenges.
The March 2025 Dashboard: Our Three Layers of Risk Management
We manage risk tactically over the short-term by investing across a broad array of themes and asset classes including cash.
ISM Services PMI Expanded for Eighth Consecutive Month in February Despite Anxieties
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its February Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 53.5—above the forecast of 52.5. This marks the eighth consecutive month of expansion despite anxieties over tariffs and federal spending cuts.
S&P Global Services PMI: Slowest Growth Since November 2023
The February U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 51.0, higher than the 49.7 forecast. The reading marks the 25th consecutive month of expansion but is the slowest growth since November 2023.
Beta Paradox: Why REITs and EM Stocks May Beat/Outshine U.S. Large Caps
According to Research Affiliates’ Asset Allocation Interactive (AAI) online capital market expectations tool, U.S. large-cap equities are expected to yield 3.4% annually over the next 10 years compared to 9.1% for EM equities and 7% for REITs. This left many webinar participants wondering, How does this extra return square with these assets having similar betas?
Commercial Real Estate Debt: Time for Insurers to Take a Closer Look?
A holistic approach may help insurance investors navigate an expansive opportunity set.
Wall Street Goes Defensive as Policy Uncertainty Rattles Markets
February’s market turbulence saw investors pivot toward defensive strategies as policy uncertainty intensified, driving a broad market rotation from mega-cap tech stocks to bonds, gold, and international equities.
The (Not So) Magnificent Seven?
Heightened economic uncertainty—propelled mainly by trade policy—has unearthed weakness in the equity market, with most pain felt under the market's surface.
Why Ultra-Wealthy Investors Can – and Should – Invest Like an Institution
Ultra-wealthy investors have unique needs and goals. While a typical high net worth client is focused on the next dozen years, these more deep-pocketed clients – like their institutional counterparts – have a much longer time horizon.
Atkins' SEC and the New Dawn for Alternative Investments
President Trump’s nomination of Paul Atkins as the next SEC Chair signals a potential sea change in regulatory approach, one that could dramatically reshape the landscape of alternative investments.
Hedge Fund-Beating Equities Will Mislead Investors
Alternative investments including hedge funds and real estate will disappear from the portfolios of pension funds and endowments over the next 10 to 20 years, well-known institutional investment consultant Richard Ennis concludes in a recent report.
Don’t Worry About China Tariffs
It’s not U.S. tariffs we need to be fixated on to gauge China’s economic growth trajectory but the ability of its leadership to rebuild confidence among entrepreneurs and consumers.
Being Short Has Its ETF Benefits
After a record year for fixed income ETFs in 2024, investors are turning to ultra-short bond ETFs, the safest fixed income ETFs available.
Three History Lessons Frame Market Expectations
The future is impossible to predict, but looking at the patterns around price/earnings ratios can provide some insight about what one might expect.
The Bull’s Eye Matrix: Updated
Today we are going to revisit that matrix updated through 2024. We will see what we got right and wrong, what further inferences we can now make and why I think it confirms my general shift in market strategy over the past few years.
Xi Prepares to Unveil China Stimulus Plan as Trade War Heats Up
President Xi Jinping heads into China’s biggest political huddle of the year with his economy finally getting back some swagger. Donald Trump’s rising tariffs will test Beijing’s ability to sustain that momentum.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Highest Level Since June 2022
The U.S. manufacturing sector grew at its fastest rate since June 2022 in February. The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI rose for a second straight month to 52.7, exceeding the 51.6 forecast.
Weekly Economic Snapshot: Inflation Concerns Cast Shadow of Uncertainty
Despite GDP figures indicating continued expansion, weakening consumer confidence and persistent inflation concerns speak to uncertainty.
Real Talk With Rias: Considering Moving Upmarket? Here Are Some Issues to Consider
Many independent firms and Registered Investment Advisors aspire to move upmarket, targeting wealthier clients who demand more sophisticated financial solutions.
Two Policy Risks in the Spotlight
Looming U.S. and global policy shifts may potentially rattle markets, but a tactical and flexible approach could help investors navigate risks and opportunities regardless of how events play out.
Moving Averages of the Ivy Portfolio and S&P 500: February 2025
Valid until the market close on March 31, 2025
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Up 0.5% in January
With the release of January's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.84% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.51% when we adjust for inflation, the largest monthly gain in a year. The year-over-year metrics are 3.58% nominal and 1.05% real, the lowest level since 2022.
Historically Confident Investors Meet Historically Uncertain World
We delve into the unprecedented level of equity risk investors are taking, the record-high uncertainty measures facing further impacts from deglobalization, and the benefits of maintaining a diversified portfolio through it all.
Fixed Income: Taking Risk in Moderation
Should you avoid lower-rated, riskier investments like high-yield corporate bonds or bank loans? Not necessarily, but you should understand the risks.
Tariff-fied
An aggressive U.S. tariff regime will come down hard on major economies.
Earnings Season Wraps Up: US CEOs Signal Highest Confidence in Two Years
The fourth quarter 2024 earnings season more-or-less wraps up this week with the final trickle of retailers coming in, as well as the highly anticipated report from Nvidia which was out yesterday afternoon.
Pending Home Sales Sink to All Time Low
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index fell more than expected in January, dropping to its lowest level on record. The index came in at 70.6, a 4.6% decline from the previous month and a 5.2% drop from one year ago. Pending home sales were expected to fall 0.9% month-over-month.
Top-Performing U.S. Fixed Income Sectors of 2024: Securitized Outpaces the Agg
In the report, John Kerschner, Head of US Securitized Products & Portfolio Manager, and John Lloyd, Lead for the Multi-Sector Credit Strategies & Portfolio Manager, review the best-performing U.S. fixed income sectors of 2024 – what worked, what didn’t, and what it means for investors going forward.
Leading the Financial Revolution: Senator Lummis, Bitcoin and the Future of U.S. Digital Policy
Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) takes a pivotal role in shaping how America approaches cryptocurrency and blockchain technology.
The Future of Liability-Driven Investing
We recently sat down with Justin Owens, our senior director and co-head of strategic asset allocation, to discuss the next phase of liability-driven investing (LDI) and the key trends driving this evolution. Below is a recap of our conversation.
Real Estate Traders Should Proceed With Cautious Optimism
A healthy jobs report should keep real estate traders appeased, but cautious optimism is warranted moving forward.
Is Warren Buffett's True Successor Bill Ackman?
Warren Buffett's latest shareholder letter contains the usual folksy mix of wisdom and humor.
New Home Sales Sink 10.5% in January; Below Forecast
New home sales fell more than expected while prices jumped to a two-year high last month. According to the Census Bureau, new home sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 657,000 in January, below the 679,000 forecast. This represents a 10.5% decline from December's upwardly revised rate of 734,000 and a 1.1% drop from one year ago.
American 'Economic Exceptionalism' Isn't Dead: How the US Is 'Built Different'
The U.S. economy remains structurally productive. American Economic Exceptionalism is powered by innovation and labor flexibility.
The New Magnificent Seven?
We explore drivers that may contribute to continued outperformance of European stocks since the bull market began in October 2022.
BondBloxx Private Credit CLO ETF (PCMM)
On this episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth discussed the BondBloxx Private Credit CLO ETF (PCMM) with Chuck Jaffe of Money Life. The pair discussed several topics related to the fund to give investors a deeper understanding of the ETF overall.
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index: 19th Straight Record High in December
Home prices continued to trend upwards in December as the benchmark national index rose for a 23rd consecutive month to a new all-time high. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.5% increase MoM, and a 4.0% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to 0.2% and YoY fell to -0.8%.
FHFA House Price Index Up 0.4% in December
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) rose to 436.1 in December, reaching a new all-time high. U.S. house prices were up 0.4% from the previous month and up 4.7% from one year ago. However, after adjusting for inflation, the real index was lower at 201.8, a record high. Real house prices were flat month-over-month and up 2.8% year-over-year.
The Fed Must See What’s Wrong To Do Its Job Right
The US Federal Reserve has begun a process with vast implications for the global economy: rethinking the framework by which it sets the interest rates that influence prices and lending in the US and just about everywhere else.
TDF Glide-Path Essentials: Setting the Right Starting Point
When constructing a target-date fund (TDF) glide path, providers have many decisions to make, such as what asset classes to include, when to include them, and how much to allocate to each.
Bond Ladders: Unlocking Direct Indexing Opportunities in Fixed Income
The managed account industry has seen tremendous growth and client adoption, with assets increasing by 28% over the last year and 50% over the past two years.