The transition from bank-dominated lending to a diversified financing ecosystem offers unprecedented opportunities for private credit investors.
In his 2025 investment outlook, Head of U.S. Securitized Products John Kerschner shares his U.S. securitized outlook, identifying the key trends he believes will drive investment returns in the year ahead.
Fixed income markets face key questions that will shape their direction in 2025. This post explores these questions & their potential impact.
An enduring image from 2024 will be the capture of the SpaceX booster rocket by the Mechazilla robot arms on its return to Earth. This achievement served as a powerful metaphor for the year: the improbable not only became possible but redefined expectations.
Our outlook on the 11 S&P 500 equity sectors.
Riverfront's stock selection team performs analysis on individual equities that provides useful insights into how we position our portfolios.
Better than expected economic data in November appears to be thwarting the FOMC's efforts to engineer lower short-term interest rates.
China’s economic ascent over the past four decades has been a remarkable story of growth, driven by several factors.
The U.S. economy and stock market are entering 2025 from a position of strength, but risks of volatility—especially pertaining to policy—are much higher compared to last year.
The markets sure had a lot to process this year – from surprisingly resilient economic data, to the Fed kicking off its easing cycle to an unprecedented presidential election season.
Strong 2024 performance may be tough to replicate given tight credit spreads, but we still have a favorable view on corporate bond investments given the strong economy.
Amid concerns about the impact of rising deficits on U.S. Treasuries, it helps to differentiate bond investments by maturity, credit rating, and global relative value.
On this episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth discussed the Neuberger Berman Short Duration Income ETF (NBSD) with Chuck Jaffe of Money Life. The pair discussed several topics related to the fund to give investors a deeper understanding of the ETF overall.
As the office buildings market faces headwinds, investors look to alternative sectors.
We believe municipal bonds currently offer a compelling balance of risk and reward for investors in higher tax brackets.
Financial markets often move in cycles where enthusiasm drives prices higher, sometimes far beyond what fundamentals justify.
Whether you want to buy or rent, finding an affordable, comfortable home can be extremely difficult, if not impossible.
Investment themes are highly dynamic, shouldn’t your investment process be too? Learn about a systematic framework to help with identifying and investing across the themes driving markets.
Five of Franklin Templeton’s specialist investment managers provide their annual outlooks for the global economy and key asset classes, including global equities; global fixed income; global infrastructure; the macro fixed income environment; municipal bond market; high yield bond market; small cap equities; U.S. dollar; U.S. economy; and U.S. equities.
China’s central bank will deliver the biggest interest-rate cuts in a decade next year as policymakers intensify efforts to shore up growth and arrest deflation, in the view of a number of Wall Street lenders.
Private credit may be all the rage among investors, but there are better alternatives, according to JPMorgan Asset Management.
Our Cash Indicator methodology acts as a plan in case of an emergency. This is analogous to the multiple safety systems in a modern automobile, which includes an airbag. Importantly, each of these systems work together to potentially help smooth the ride.
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has released its November services purchasing managers' index (PMI). The headline composite index is at 52.1, worse than the forecast of 55.5. The latest reading moves the index back into expansion territory for 51st time in the past 54 months.
How to unlock value in a complex market landscape.
With year-end looming, consider taking action now to determine if annual gifts make sense. Our Bill Cass shares useful strategies to consider for estate planning.
The bond market is caught between the Federal Reserve's plans to cut interest rates and the risk of higher inflation and federal debt levels.
The explosive growth of the ETF industry has attracted a full range of new entrants this year — from smaller individuals to the largest hedge funds in the world. More and more fund managers are making their foray into the world of ETFs.
While the economy helped President Trump win a second term, it also created expectations that could prove difficult to meet.
Assets in money market funds reached an all-time high of $7 trillion this past month. Now that rates are moving lower, money market yields may not be as attractive to many investors and assets may gradually leave money funds.
A couple of weeks ago, we wrote about how the deficit had come back into focus for the U.S. financial markets.
By understanding annuities, debunking myths, and staying on top of tax implications, you can offer your clients the financial stability they crave. Regular reviews, proactive communication, and continuous education are the keys to success.
While politics garner headlines, fundamentals drive the market over the long term.
The Fed could be ‘slower to lower,' while the Trend continues to rise, with an overly optimistic Crowd due to seasonality and post-election trends.
Armada’s Phil Bak discusses wrapping private assets in ETFs and fields rapid-fire questions on some of the industry’s hottest topics. VettaFi’s Kirsten Chang explains “ETFs going Hollywood”, with a growing list of prominent individuals now launching products.
Next year, the US Federal Reserve will undertake an exercise with global implications: the periodic monetary policy framework review, at which it rethinks its approach to managing the world’s largest economy.
The 2024 wild ride has proven to be a continuation of last year’s.
International markets are expected to clear the hurdles of uncertain trade policy, tighter fiscal policy and slower than average economic growth to support solid overall returns.
As a result of the election and rate cuts, the stock market indices surged to new highs in anticipation of lower taxes & looser regulations.
Short-term rates are going down because the Treasury is issuing related debt at lower rates. Meanwhile, long-term rates are going up because the Fed is not intervening.. The Fed is trapped in a vicious cycle. Can you see a way out?
Expectations for solid corporate earnings drove our U.S. and Japanese equity overweights this year. They have delivered, showing that fundamentals are key. Earnings strength could matter more to equity investors in 2025 over valuations.
Big banks have been warning their investors about the competition they face from private credit, electronic market makers and others for some time.
The question on “everyone’s” mind, whether the back or the front, is where will the stock market be in two, three, six years?
Valid until the market close on December 31, 2024
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
The money-market industry just reached a significant milestone with Crane Data reporting that these cash-like funds have amassed a record $7 trillion in assets. There are many ways to think about this development.
Wholesale elimination of tax exemption isn’t likely, but certain types of muni bonds could be targets.
The U.S. economy faces growing risks, from a surging Federal deficit to geopolitical uncertainty. Investors must assess how these factors could ignite market instability and take proactive steps to safeguard their portfolios.
Home prices continued to trend upwards in September as the benchmark 20-city index rose for a twentieth consecutive month to a new all-time high. The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index revealed seasonally adjusted home prices for the 20-city index saw a 0.2% increase month-over-month (MoM) and a 4.6% increase year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM was reduced to -0.2% and the YoY was -0.6%.
VettaFi spoke recently with Nate Williams, a vice president and ETF specialist with Franklin Templeton, about the growth of its ETF business.
Some post-election stock market excitement has receded, but the story of strong breadth—which predated the election—has not changed and continues to support the market for now.
Credit investors squeezed by the tightest spreads in almost 20 years are opting for bare-bones strategies, creating a boom for Europe’s fixed-maturity funds.
Following President Trump’s re-election, the S&P 500 has seen an impressive surge, climbing past 6,000 and sparking significant optimism in the financial markets. Unsurprisingly, the rush by perma-bulls to make long-term predictions is remarkable.
Take a moment to understand a few recent breakthroughs in medicine and explore a few ways to get actionable exposure to them with ETFs.
VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth discussed the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Income Advantage ETF (RSPA) on this week’s “ETF of the Week” podcast with Chuck Jaffe of “Money Life.”
What are the key drivers of the gold market? Let’s delve into it.
With the re-election of President Donald Trump, the worries about tariffs and pro-business policies sparked concerns of “Trumpflation.” Inflation has been a top concern for policymakers, businesses, and everyday consumers, especially following the sharp price increases experienced over the past few years.
MicroStrategy Inc. bought a record $5.4 billion in Bitcoin, the third major purchase announced this month by the crypto hedge fund proxy.
Treasury inflation-protected securities can help buffer a portfolio against inflation. However, it's important to understand their unique characteristics and complex nature.
It is important for savers to understand guaranteed and non-guaranteed options when looking at retirement solutions offered within a 401(k) plan. Our Mike Dullaghan shares the highlights and talks about the need for personalized strategies.
Actively managed ETFs are among the fastest-growing products in the broader ETF space.
Rick Raczkowski, PM, Relative Return Team, Loomis, Sayles & Company, discussed how the team views fixed income investing looking ahead.
Sticky underlying price pressures could prevent a faster return to neutral monetary policy.
The world’s biggest private credit managers are turning to an obscure investment product to help raise billions from deep-pocketed insurance companies, testing the limits of industry safeguards meant to curb risk.
The post-election stock market is already giving investors a wild ride. Big individual stock selloffs, massive rallies, and a dizzying array of market narratives built on Wall Street’s best attempts to read President-elect Donald Trump’s mind.
Many of the myths and controversies surrounding the equity risk premium (ERP) are rooted in semantics: The same term is used for multiple purposes.
Why the equity market rally following the U.S. presidential election could continue into year-end.
To judge by the action in some foreign markets, Donald Trump’s election is pricing in economic winter.
In Europe, the ECB stimulates a sluggish economy while in the UK, the problem is inflation. In contrast, the US responds to stronger growth.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) decreased in October to its lowest level since March 2016. The index fell 0.4% from the previous month to 99.5, marking its eighth consecutive monthly decline.
The inverse correlation between bonds and stocks has returned, broadening potential for risk-adjusted returns in multi-asset portfolios.
The 2024 Global Survey of Financial Advisors from Natixis revealed the ongoing hesitance of investors to move out of cash and into bonds.
Chief Investment Officer Sean Taylor considers the implications of a second Trump administration for emerging markets.
We seek to capitalize on today’s attractive yields while staying mindful of economic and market uncertainties.
The Treasury yield curve has shifted appreciably all year long. In particular, the last few months have realized substantial rate changes. The shift in the Treasury curve is not isolated. The corporate curve is also changing.
Paul Tudor Jones recently voiced concerns that rising U.S. deficits and debt and increasing interest rates could lead to a fiscal crisis. His perspective reflects the long-standing fear that sustained borrowing will trigger inflation, raise interest rates, and eventually overwhelm the government’s ability to manage its debt obligations.
Nouriel Roubini is seizing on Donald Trump’s inflation-threatening policy agenda to make a case for an alternative haven trade to Treasuries in a world of elevated volatility.
Top financial professionals have a clear understanding of their unique strengths and are able to convey them to clients. To set yourself up for success, distinguish yourself in the market through specialized expertise and tailored client services.
Market reactions to a potential trade war may be less extreme than anticipated by investors, although volatility is likely during trade negotiations.
Wait, what? The Fed cut interest rates and bond yields went up, not down. Yes, you read that right.
The current global expansion has been characterized as one of US exceptionalism. Despite many developed market economies outperforming low expectations, the robustness of the US expansion has stood out. We believe this can continue based on differences between the US and European economies.
Most Americans, from both parties, say the government needs to increase the supply of affordable housing. For President-elect Donald Trump, that should offer a good opportunity to summon his instincts for development — and self-promotion — to get America building again. Call it the “Trump Building Boom.”
Change is the sum of fundamental trends, the gradual elimination of accumulated extremes, and the random arrival of new shocks.
The period from the 1960s to the 1990s defined by record-setting inflation and big swings in GDP bears a striking resemblance to the current environment.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman seems to be happy with the market’s new wisdom regarding the path of interest rates going forward.
On this episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth talks about the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) with Money Life host Chuck Jaffe. The pair discussed use cases for the ETF as well as its outlook.
Last week’s selloff, which comes on the heels of what has been a generally successful earnings season for Corporate America, has investors bracing for one final test: a reading on the state of the consumer from a series of retail bellwethers who report in the coming days.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. growth, employment, inflation and interest rates.
Declining inflation has been a theme for the economy since mid-2022, but we still believe the road may have some curves.
This isn’t the same China that greeted Donald Trump after his first win in 2016. The economy, once widely believed on a course to knock the US off its perch as the preeminent commercial power, has since revealed some acute vulnerabilities that don’t seem to be going away. And the president-elect seems to be gearing up for a trade war he no longer needs to fight.
U.S. rate cuts of up to 200bps are anticipated by the end of 2025 but with significant further downside if recession risks materialize.
As a major corn and soybean consumer, China is keeping prices in limbo. A potential trade war could add additional intrigue.
Real Estate
Private Credit: Asset-Based Finance Shines as Lending Landscape Evolves
The transition from bank-dominated lending to a diversified financing ecosystem offers unprecedented opportunities for private credit investors.
Key Trends Driving U. S. Securitized Fixed Income in 2025
In his 2025 investment outlook, Head of U.S. Securitized Products John Kerschner shares his U.S. securitized outlook, identifying the key trends he believes will drive investment returns in the year ahead.
Notes from the Desk: 3 Questions for 2025
Fixed income markets face key questions that will shape their direction in 2025. This post explores these questions & their potential impact.
2025 Annual Global Market Outlook: The Mechazilla Moment
An enduring image from 2024 will be the capture of the SpaceX booster rocket by the Mechazilla robot arms on its return to Earth. This achievement served as a powerful metaphor for the year: the improbable not only became possible but redefined expectations.
Sector Views: Monthly Stock Sector Outlook
Our outlook on the 11 S&P 500 equity sectors.
Value Investing in the US and Beyond
Riverfront's stock selection team performs analysis on individual equities that provides useful insights into how we position our portfolios.
Better Than Expected Economic Data in November
Better than expected economic data in November appears to be thwarting the FOMC's efforts to engineer lower short-term interest rates.
Watching China’s Economic Miracle (and Relevance) Fade Before Our Eyes
China’s economic ascent over the past four decades has been a remarkable story of growth, driven by several factors.
2025 U.S. Stocks and Economy Outlook
The U.S. economy and stock market are entering 2025 from a position of strength, but risks of volatility—especially pertaining to policy—are much higher compared to last year.
The Fed Is Still Leaning Toward a December Rate Cut
The markets sure had a lot to process this year – from surprisingly resilient economic data, to the Fed kicking off its easing cycle to an unprecedented presidential election season.
2025 Corporate Bond Outlook
Strong 2024 performance may be tough to replicate given tight credit spreads, but we still have a favorable view on corporate bond investments given the strong economy.
Thoughts From the Bond Vigilantes
Amid concerns about the impact of rising deficits on U.S. Treasuries, it helps to differentiate bond investments by maturity, credit rating, and global relative value.
Neuberger Berman Short Duration Income ETF (NBSD)
On this episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth discussed the Neuberger Berman Short Duration Income ETF (NBSD) with Chuck Jaffe of Money Life. The pair discussed several topics related to the fund to give investors a deeper understanding of the ETF overall.
The Shifting Landscape of Commercial Real Estate
As the office buildings market faces headwinds, investors look to alternative sectors.
2025 Municipal Bond Outlook
We believe municipal bonds currently offer a compelling balance of risk and reward for investors in higher tax brackets.
Leverage And Speculation Are At Extremes
Financial markets often move in cycles where enthusiasm drives prices higher, sometimes far beyond what fundamentals justify.
Homes for Christmas
Whether you want to buy or rent, finding an affordable, comfortable home can be extremely difficult, if not impossible.
Thematic Investing: Tomorrow’s Themes, Today
Investment themes are highly dynamic, shouldn’t your investment process be too? Learn about a systematic framework to help with identifying and investing across the themes driving markets.
Franklin Templeton’s 2025 Outlooks for Equities and Fixed Income Sectors
Five of Franklin Templeton’s specialist investment managers provide their annual outlooks for the global economy and key asset classes, including global equities; global fixed income; global infrastructure; the macro fixed income environment; municipal bond market; high yield bond market; small cap equities; U.S. dollar; U.S. economy; and U.S. equities.
Wall Street Banks Predict Biggest China Rate Cuts in Decade
China’s central bank will deliver the biggest interest-rate cuts in a decade next year as policymakers intensify efforts to shore up growth and arrest deflation, in the view of a number of Wall Street lenders.
JPMorgan Asset Prefers Real Estate and PE to Direct Lending
Private credit may be all the rage among investors, but there are better alternatives, according to JPMorgan Asset Management.
The December 2024 Dashboard: Our Three Layers of Risk Management
Our Cash Indicator methodology acts as a plan in case of an emergency. This is analogous to the multiple safety systems in a modern automobile, which includes an airbag. Importantly, each of these systems work together to potentially help smooth the ride.
ISM Services PMI Expanded for Fifth Straight Month in November
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has released its November services purchasing managers' index (PMI). The headline composite index is at 52.1, worse than the forecast of 55.5. The latest reading moves the index back into expansion territory for 51st time in the past 54 months.
Turning the Corner? Commercial Real Estate Themes for 2025
How to unlock value in a complex market landscape.
Year-End Estate Planning: Strategies for Maximizing Tax Benefits and Legacy Planning
With year-end looming, consider taking action now to determine if annual gifts make sense. Our Bill Cass shares useful strategies to consider for estate planning.
2025 Treasury Bonds and Fixed Income Outlook
The bond market is caught between the Federal Reserve's plans to cut interest rates and the risk of higher inflation and federal debt levels.
ETFs Gone Hollywood? Heavyweights Enter the ETF Fray
The explosive growth of the ETF industry has attracted a full range of new entrants this year — from smaller individuals to the largest hedge funds in the world. More and more fund managers are making their foray into the world of ETFs.
Monthly Global Economic Report
While the economy helped President Trump win a second term, it also created expectations that could prove difficult to meet.
Rethinking Cash
Assets in money market funds reached an all-time high of $7 trillion this past month. Now that rates are moving lower, money market yields may not be as attractive to many investors and assets may gradually leave money funds.
When Will the “Bill” Come Due?
A couple of weeks ago, we wrote about how the deficit had come back into focus for the U.S. financial markets.
Annuities 101: A Financial Advisor's Guide to Understanding and Utilizing Annuities
By understanding annuities, debunking myths, and staying on top of tax implications, you can offer your clients the financial stability they crave. Regular reviews, proactive communication, and continuous education are the keys to success.
Equity Markets Carried in November by Post-election Rally
While politics garner headlines, fundamentals drive the market over the long term.
Tactical Rules Hovering Above Neutral
The Fed could be ‘slower to lower,' while the Trend continues to rise, with an overly optimistic Crowd due to seasonality and post-election trends.
Armada’s Phil Bak: Private Assets in ETFs?
Armada’s Phil Bak discusses wrapping private assets in ETFs and fields rapid-fire questions on some of the industry’s hottest topics. VettaFi’s Kirsten Chang explains “ETFs going Hollywood”, with a growing list of prominent individuals now launching products.
The Fed’s Next Big Policy Rethink Needs Rethinking
Next year, the US Federal Reserve will undertake an exercise with global implications: the periodic monetary policy framework review, at which it rethinks its approach to managing the world’s largest economy.
Don’t Be a Last Minute Rate Shopper
The 2024 wild ride has proven to be a continuation of last year’s.
2025 Global Outlook: Clearing the Hurdles
International markets are expected to clear the hurdles of uncertain trade policy, tighter fiscal policy and slower than average economic growth to support solid overall returns.
Trump Wins, Fed Cuts, Market Rips, Now What?
As a result of the election and rate cuts, the stock market indices surged to new highs in anticipation of lower taxes & looser regulations.
Fed Staunches Asset Hemorrhaging, But Consequences Could Loom
Short-term rates are going down because the Treasury is issuing related debt at lower rates. Meanwhile, long-term rates are going up because the Fed is not intervening.. The Fed is trapped in a vicious cycle. Can you see a way out?
Uneven Earnings Call for Granularity
Expectations for solid corporate earnings drove our U.S. and Japanese equity overweights this year. They have delivered, showing that fundamentals are key. Earnings strength could matter more to equity investors in 2025 over valuations.
Investment Banks Will Lose Billions of Dollars to Private Rivals
Big banks have been warning their investors about the competition they face from private credit, electronic market makers and others for some time.
The Changing Nature of the Stock Market
The question on “everyone’s” mind, whether the back or the front, is where will the stock market be in two, three, six years?
Moving Averages: S&P Finishes November 2024 Up 5.7%
Valid until the market close on December 31, 2024
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
This $7 Trillion Pile Won’t Save the Bulls
The money-market industry just reached a significant milestone with Crane Data reporting that these cash-like funds have amassed a record $7 trillion in assets. There are many ways to think about this development.
Will a “Red Wave” Affect Municipal Bonds’ Tax-Exempt Status?
Wholesale elimination of tax exemption isn’t likely, but certain types of muni bonds could be targets.
One Spark Away from Ignition
The U.S. economy faces growing risks, from a surging Federal deficit to geopolitical uncertainty. Investors must assess how these factors could ignite market instability and take proactive steps to safeguard their portfolios.
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Hits New Record High in September
Home prices continued to trend upwards in September as the benchmark 20-city index rose for a twentieth consecutive month to a new all-time high. The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index revealed seasonally adjusted home prices for the 20-city index saw a 0.2% increase month-over-month (MoM) and a 4.6% increase year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM was reduced to -0.2% and the YoY was -0.6%.
Financial Giant Charts a Differentiated Course in Active ETFs
VettaFi spoke recently with Nate Williams, a vice president and ETF specialist with Franklin Templeton, about the growth of its ETF business.
Breadth of Life: Post-Election Market Trends
Some post-election stock market excitement has receded, but the story of strong breadth—which predated the election—has not changed and continues to support the market for now.
In Hot Credit Market, Simple Fixed-Maturity Funds Are Booming
Credit investors squeezed by the tightest spreads in almost 20 years are opting for bare-bones strategies, creating a boom for Europe’s fixed-maturity funds.
Yardeni And The Long History Of Prediction Problems
Following President Trump’s re-election, the S&P 500 has seen an impressive surge, climbing past 6,000 and sparking significant optimism in the financial markets. Unsurprisingly, the rush by perma-bulls to make long-term predictions is remarkable.
Disruptive Theme of the Week: Breakthroughs in Medicine
Take a moment to understand a few recent breakthroughs in medicine and explore a few ways to get actionable exposure to them with ETFs.
Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Income Advantage ETF (RSPA)
VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth discussed the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Income Advantage ETF (RSPA) on this week’s “ETF of the Week” podcast with Chuck Jaffe of “Money Life.”
From Rate Cuts to Gold ETFs: Unpacking the Factors Behind the Price Surge
What are the key drivers of the gold market? Let’s delve into it.
“Trumpflation” Risks Likely Overstated
With the re-election of President Donald Trump, the worries about tariffs and pro-business policies sparked concerns of “Trumpflation.” Inflation has been a top concern for policymakers, businesses, and everyday consumers, especially following the sharp price increases experienced over the past few years.
MicroStrategy Accelerates Bitcoin Buying With Record Purchase
MicroStrategy Inc. bought a record $5.4 billion in Bitcoin, the third major purchase announced this month by the crypto hedge fund proxy.
TIPS and Inflation: What to Know Now
Treasury inflation-protected securities can help buffer a portfolio against inflation. However, it's important to understand their unique characteristics and complex nature.
What Retirement Plan Advisors Need to Know About In-Plan Retirement Income Solutions
It is important for savers to understand guaranteed and non-guaranteed options when looking at retirement solutions offered within a 401(k) plan. Our Mike Dullaghan shares the highlights and talks about the need for personalized strategies.
Active ETFs Offer Tax Perks, Too
Actively managed ETFs are among the fastest-growing products in the broader ETF space.
2025 Fixed Income Investing: The Credit Cycle & Duration
Rick Raczkowski, PM, Relative Return Team, Loomis, Sayles & Company, discussed how the team views fixed income investing looking ahead.
Myths and Reality
Sticky underlying price pressures could prevent a faster return to neutral monetary policy.
Backdoor Private Credit Funds Are Luring Billions From Insurers
The world’s biggest private credit managers are turning to an obscure investment product to help raise billions from deep-pocketed insurance companies, testing the limits of industry safeguards meant to curb risk.
Trump Is Making the 60/40 Portfolio Great Again
The post-election stock market is already giving investors a wild ride. Big individual stock selloffs, massive rallies, and a dizzying array of market narratives built on Wall Street’s best attempts to read President-elect Donald Trump’s mind.
The Equity Risk Premium: Nine Myths (JPM Series)
Many of the myths and controversies surrounding the equity risk premium (ERP) are rooted in semantics: The same term is used for multiple purposes.
Why the Election Rally Could Continue
Why the equity market rally following the U.S. presidential election could continue into year-end.
Japan Needs M&A to Change the Vibe
To judge by the action in some foreign markets, Donald Trump’s election is pricing in economic winter.
Central Bank Policy and Global Bond Yields
In Europe, the ECB stimulates a sluggish economy while in the UK, the problem is inflation. In contrast, the US responds to stronger growth.
CB Leading Economic Index: Continues to Fall in October
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) decreased in October to its lowest level since March 2016. The index fell 0.4% from the previous month to 99.5, marking its eighth consecutive monthly decline.
Negative Correlations, Positive Allocations
The inverse correlation between bonds and stocks has returned, broadening potential for risk-adjusted returns in multi-asset portfolios.
Investors Still Reluctant to Move From Cash to Bonds
The 2024 Global Survey of Financial Advisors from Natixis revealed the ongoing hesitance of investors to move out of cash and into bonds.
Opportunities and Challenges of Trump 2.0
Chief Investment Officer Sean Taylor considers the implications of a second Trump administration for emerging markets.
Income Fund Update: Navigating Rate Cuts With Flexibility and a High Quality Focus
We seek to capitalize on today’s attractive yields while staying mindful of economic and market uncertainties.
Yield Curve Shift
The Treasury yield curve has shifted appreciably all year long. In particular, the last few months have realized substantial rate changes. The shift in the Treasury curve is not isolated. The corporate curve is also changing.
Paul Tudor Jones: I Won’t Own Fixed Income
Paul Tudor Jones recently voiced concerns that rising U.S. deficits and debt and increasing interest rates could lead to a fiscal crisis. His perspective reflects the long-standing fear that sustained borrowing will trigger inflation, raise interest rates, and eventually overwhelm the government’s ability to manage its debt obligations.
Roubini Launches Treasury-Alternative ETF to Ride Trump-Era Risk
Nouriel Roubini is seizing on Donald Trump’s inflation-threatening policy agenda to make a case for an alternative haven trade to Treasuries in a world of elevated volatility.
What Top Financial Professionals Are Doing to Succeed
Top financial professionals have a clear understanding of their unique strengths and are able to convey them to clients. To set yourself up for success, distinguish yourself in the market through specialized expertise and tailored client services.
Five Investing Impacts of a Trade War
Market reactions to a potential trade war may be less extreme than anticipated by investors, although volatility is likely during trade negotiations.
What’s Driving the Recent Surge in Bond Yields?
Wait, what? The Fed cut interest rates and bond yields went up, not down. Yes, you read that right.
Positioning for a Transatlantic Divide
The current global expansion has been characterized as one of US exceptionalism. Despite many developed market economies outperforming low expectations, the robustness of the US expansion has stood out. We believe this can continue based on differences between the US and European economies.
Trump Should Bring On a Great American Housing Boom
Most Americans, from both parties, say the government needs to increase the supply of affordable housing. For President-elect Donald Trump, that should offer a good opportunity to summon his instincts for development — and self-promotion — to get America building again. Call it the “Trump Building Boom.”
The Turtle and the Pendulum
Change is the sum of fundamental trends, the gradual elimination of accumulated extremes, and the random arrival of new shocks.
Is the Next Temperamental Era Upon Us?
The period from the 1960s to the 1990s defined by record-setting inflation and big swings in GDP bears a striking resemblance to the current environment.
Fed Chairman Not in a Rush
The Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman seems to be happy with the market’s new wisdom regarding the path of interest rates going forward.
SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE)
On this episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth talks about the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) with Money Life host Chuck Jaffe. The pair discussed use cases for the ETF as well as its outlook.
Holiday Outlooks Due From Major Retailers in Test of US Consumer
Last week’s selloff, which comes on the heels of what has been a generally successful earnings season for Corporate America, has investors bracing for one final test: a reading on the state of the consumer from a series of retail bellwethers who report in the coming days.
Never a Dull Moment
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for U.S. growth, employment, inflation and interest rates.
Schwab Market Perspective: Disinflation Risks
Declining inflation has been a theme for the economy since mid-2022, but we still believe the road may have some curves.
China Trade War Is One Trump Doesn’t Have to Fight
This isn’t the same China that greeted Donald Trump after his first win in 2016. The economy, once widely believed on a course to knock the US off its perch as the preeminent commercial power, has since revealed some acute vulnerabilities that don’t seem to be going away. And the president-elect seems to be gearing up for a trade war he no longer needs to fight.
Fixed Income Survey 2024-2025: Cautious Optimism
U.S. rate cuts of up to 200bps are anticipated by the end of 2025 but with significant further downside if recession risks materialize.
China Demand, Trade Wars Keep Ag Commodities in Limbo
As a major corn and soybean consumer, China is keeping prices in limbo. A potential trade war could add additional intrigue.