The Federal Reserve concluded its fourth meeting of the year by keeping the federal funds rate (FFR) at 4.25-4.50%, as expected.
Home values fell for a third straight month in May, according to the Zillow Home Value Index. However, after adjusting for inflation, real home values declined for a 13th consecutive month, hitting their lowest level in over four years.
Not much seems to faze the stock market these days even as risks abound, from war in the Middle East, to trade tensions, to slowing growth. But Wall Street’s biggest fear arrives today when the Federal Reserve meeting ends and Chair Jerome Powell explains the central bank’s outlook.
Many small deals have done through, including ones from overseas, and an active calendar of corporate shareholder meetings could offer fresh insights into capital plans.
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, housing starts inched up to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.256 million in May, its lowest level in over five years.
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, building permits dropped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.393 million in May, the lowest level in nearly five years.
Builder confidence fell for a second straight month in June as elevated rates, tariffs, and economic uncertainty dragged builder sentiment to its lowest level in 2.5 years.
Bonds hit a headwind in May as rates rose, but year to date, they have helped offset some of the volatility seen in stocks. See Table 2 for bond index returns for May 2025, Q1 2025, and YTD.
Michael Browne, Chief Investment Officer at Martin Currie discusses inflation, energy and the art of the possible.
Venture capitalists are betting on a product that’s close to their hearts: software for venture capitalists. Juniper Square Inc., a software provider for VCs and other private investors, has raised $130 million in a deal that values the company at $1.1 billion.
As of Q1 2025, the latest Fed balance sheet indicates that household net worth has risen 186% since reaching its 2009 low. However, when adjusted for inflation, household net worth has actually increased by only 91% since the 2009 trough.
Last week’s economic signals showed cautious optimism and renewed concern. Inflation saw a slight uptick in May.
The yield on the 10-year note ended June 13, 2025 at 4.41%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.96% and the 30-year note ended at 4.90%.
Lately, the “deficit narrative” has dominated much of the financial media, particularly those channels that are continual “purveyors of doom.” In this post, we will discuss the “deficit narrative,” the likely outcomes, and why the cure for the deficit may be found in Artificial Intelligence.
Rampant uncertainty and ongoing market volatility in 2025 have done little to dampen the ETF industry, with innovative launches ongoing.
Separating the signal from the noise may be the hardest challenge investors face. We’re all surrounded by constantly changing but mostly unimportant information. Of the small part that really is important, we must decide if it affects our investments.
Tariff policy has clouded expectations for the second half of the year, but there are ways to navigate through the fog.
US economic data continue to send mixed signals, keeping uncertainty high on interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve later this year.
Alex Veroude, Global Head of Fixed Income, believes fixed income investors can prepare for an uncertain journey by recognising trends and diversifying across different assets.
Global markets may be more rattled than ever, but advisors can count on closed-end funds to offer yield, portfolio diversity, and more.
Summer re-runs are popular on TV, but a repeat of last August's "yen-carry" market upheaval isn't likely on the schedule. A shift in positioning by investors is one reason.
In the history of technological progress, there's often a critical misreading. We think the leap is in the product—the engine, the chip, the app.
With tariff news providing constant equity market fluctuations, the case for bonds becomes more compelling. The added uncertainty also punctuates the need for an active management strategy, which one particular Vanguard ETF offers.
BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest asset manager, boosted its annual revenue target for 2030 and set its first-ever firmwide target for private-markets fundraising at $400 billion by then.
The first half of 2025 has been driven by headlines that have caused volatility in both the stock and bond markets. While tariff negotiations have commanded the most attention, we are now pivoting to the federal budget deficit, which feels like a perpetual headline over the last 15 years.
Integrating volatile and illiquid assets into the ETF structure is something to be avoided, Doubleline CEO and CIO Gundlach said.
With the world order in flux, investors can look to fortify portfolios by diversifying across global markets and capitalizing on attractive, high quality yields.
While the immediate path for tariffs may drift lower, the U.S. legislative branch is hammering out a tax and spending bill that seems to favor tax cuts over lower spending, reviving worries over the U.S. budget deficit and a growing debt burden that cannot be ignored.
The global economy is continually evolving due to inflation, interest rates, and geopolitics. How could these and other factors influence the major asset classes over the coming decade?
If we lived in a world where mobile signals were visible, the sky would shimmer like a storm—layers of frequencies rolling over rooftops, crossing oceans and saturating valleys.
The U.S. economy and stock market face a confluence of challenges in the second half of the year, keeping the bar relatively (but not restrictively) high for outperformance.
The US housing market remains in a state of inertia. Despite the arrival of the spring selling season, both new and existing home sales continue to underwhelm.
A college degree may be a milestone that represents one possible career path. But it’s not your only route toward a future that is both financially sound and deeply fulfilling.
Small-cap stocks tend to offer greater growth potential than their large-cap peers, but those returns have yet to materialize consistently. What will it take to turn the tide?
Blackstone Inc. is planning to invest as much as $500 billion in Europe over the next 10 years, underlining the continent’s growing appeal to investors during a period of geopolitical flux.
The Fear Trade is what most Western investors are familiar with. It’s the flight to safety during times of uncertainty, driven by concerns over inflation, interest rates, geopolitical risk and more.
Investors may revisit international exposure in their portfolios amidst reduced market reactions to tariff announcements, uncertain U.S. policy and lagging U.S. stock performance.
Back during the Financial Panic of 2008, clickbait media kept screaming “Hyperinflation.” We consistently pushed back against this theme, and argued inflation would not accelerate.
US Treasuries were trimming overnight gains, with modest weakness in longer dated debt as investors awaited a Thursday auction of 30-year securities that will offer a fresh test of demand for the beleaguered securities.
US stocks flipped between small gains and losses on Monday as investors awaited the outcome of crucial trade talks between Washington and Beijing in London.
Research trips are an integral component of our active, fundamental investment process. Our investment teams meet with different companies, attend conferences, and travel to new markets around the world, gaining insights for our clients and a deeper understanding of potential investments.
Bouts of volatility may continue in the second half of 2025 as bond market investors navigate evolving tariff policy, U.S. government debt, and economic uncertainty.
Kristofer Kraus, portfolio manager and co-lead of PIMCO’s asset-based finance business, charts the nuances behind the overall resilience of U.S. consumers – and explains how these insights shape lending and investment strategies.
We remain underweight most developed market stocks as US tariff policy is still unclear but are more enthusiastic about emerging market assets.
Wall Street is cranking up the bond machine as US homeowners — finding that buying a new house is out of reach since mortgage rates started climbing in 2022 – are instead getting home equity loans and sprucing up their current properties.
In the last three months tariff news has whipped financial markets around remarkably in response to President Trump’s ever changing tariff policies. The most pronounced reactions were concentrated in the US stock market.
Private investments demand patience, but the rewards could be worth the wait.
Stocks rallied in May 2025 as trade tensions eased, but investor confidence remains fragile.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its May Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 49.9—below the forecast of 52.0. This marks the first contraction for the index since June 2024.
The May U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 53.7, above the 52.3 forecast. The reading marks the 28th consecutive month of expansion and was a noticeable pickup from April's 17-month low.
Duration is an often confused term when it comes to financial fixed income investing. After all, in your everyday life, the definition of duration is the length of time it takes for something to occur.
The muted IPO market which has become commonplace in the last few years continued in that fashion through the first five months of 2025. However, the last few weeks has brought a renewed focus to dealmaking after a couple of highly anticipated IPOs began trading, and a cryptocurrency unicorn filed to IPO.
Mortgage rates last week climbed to their highest levels since the beginning of the year on elevated economic risks. With markets still hopeful of at least one interest rate cut in the second half, the real estate sector stands poised to bounce back in a lower rate environment.
On this week’s episode of ETF Prime, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth discusses the rise of active ETFs and anticipated ETF share class structure. Later, Fidelity’s Eric Granat and Christine Thorpe spotlight the Fidelity Hedged Equity ETF (FHEQ) and the Fidelity Total Bond ETF (FBND).
Signs are emerging that the Trump administration may be less willing to give up control of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac than investors have bargained for, as policymakers scrounge for ways to close US budget gaps.
Our role isn’t just to manage assets; it’s to help clients stay grounded. We remind clients that investing is a long-term journey, and short-term volatility doesn’t have to knock them off course.
This past week, news flow around policy came in hot and heavy, with President Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful’ tax cut bill passing the House of Representatives, and Trump threatening 50% tariffs on the European Union (EU).
Most clients are relatively conservative when it comes to determining how much they can afford to spend in retirement. All things being equal, clients would generally rather die with too much money than too little.
Similar to the equity market’s response to the recently announced tariffs, the bond market responded with a widening of credit spreads. These spreads represent the difference in yield between a U.S. Treasury bond and other bonds of the same maturity but different credit quality.
U.S. manufacturing growth picked up in May, but tariffs and trade policy continued to dominate the sector's landscape. The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI remained in expansion territory for a fifth straight month in May at 52.0. The latest reading was lower than the 52.3 forecast.
It doesn’t take much to understand that Ray Dalio, a hedge fund titan, is like every other human being and is prone to error. I will not dismiss Dalio entirely, as his track record of managing money at Bridgewater is nothing to be scoffed at.
With current home sales at historical lows and mortgage rates hovering between 6% and 7%, homeowners who are locked into previously secured low-interest mortgages remain hesitant to sell. In fact, existing home sales have reached depressed levels unseen in three to four decades.
Corporate credit spreads, whether investment grade or high yield, can often hint at hiccups in the stock market and the economy. But they tend to keep a low profile.
Valid until the market close on June 30, 2025
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
House prices are falling, and it’s no longer just a Florida and Texas story. Rising inventory across the country and still reluctant buyers mean that those looking to sell face the prospect of more competition and lower prices next spring if they don’t close on a deal soon. For buyers, holding out can mean a better price.
The market for Treasury securities is sending an increasingly troubling signal. As of last week, investors were demanding about 90 extra basis points in yield to compensate for the added risk of lending longer-term to the US government.
With the release of April's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.80% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.70% when we adjust for inflation, the largest monthly gain since January 2024. The year-over-year metrics are 4.47% nominal and 2.27% real.
Many investors have underweighted high yield bond ETF strategies in recent years, satisfied with the opportunities found in other segments of the fixed income market.
Remember last July and August when the yen carry trade blew up? At the time, the central bank surprised the market by signaling a faster pace of rate hikes than expected. Investors sold foreign currency, bought back yen and sent markets into a tailspin.
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index fell more than expected in April, experiencing its largest monthly decrease since June 2022. The index came in at 71.3, the third lowest reading in the series' history.
A lot of people are worried about the level of US interest rates. “I think we should be afraid of the bond market,” billionaire investor Ray Dalio said last week.
KKR & Co.’s recent deal for a struggling UK real estate firm was initially remarkable for landing in the midst of the American tariff turmoil. Now facing a domestic counterbid, this US-led buyout has become an emotive symbol of the London stock market’s capitulation to private equity and foreign takeovers.
There is still a wide divergence between hard and soft data, and a recovery in the latter is likely to be weak absent a meaningful reduction in policy uncertainty.
529 plans do not earn interest like a traditional savings account. However, they offer strong growth potential through a range of investment options.
Some of the most useful financial advice has a homespun tone, like to make hay while the sun is shining or save up for a rainy day. I recently encountered another helpful idea in that vein: Think of your house like a family member who is always sick.
In this article, I focus on five essential age-based milestones and life events that collectively present more than 40 million advice opportunities, enabling financial advisors to showcase their care and expertise beyond traditional investment strategies.
Residential mortgage-backed securities, or MBS, are a big part of the securitized investment market. Here's what to know about MBS investing.
Mounting concerns regarding growing U.S. government deficits and a volatile tariff policy create a challenging backdrop for U.S. bonds.
SS&C ALPS Advisors’ Paul Baiocchi dives into key ETF trends, from active and alternatively-weighted strategies to international and thematic ETFs. VettaFi’s Cinthia Murphy goes inside the world of S&P 500 ETFs, exploring several unique angles to the industry’s flagship products.
There are plenty of reasons to be concerned about the direction of the US economy right now.
Without proper financial guidance and planning, the end of their career could be followed by serious financial difficulties. While every athlete’s legal, tax, and financial picture is different, here are some of the topics that should be reviewed with athletes.
Home prices declined in March as the benchmark national index fell for the first time since January 2023. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.3% decrease month-over-month (MoM), and a 3.4% increase year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to -0.7% and YoY fell to -1.0%.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) fell to 436.6 in March, the first monthly decline since August 2022. U.S. house prices were down 0.1% from the previous month, lower than the expected 0.1% growth, and up 4.6% from one year ago.
Existing home sales inched down in April, reaching their lowest level in seven months. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales fell 0.5% from March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.00 million units in April.
My next few letters will share some initial thoughts from SIC organized around the major topics. Today we’ll start with inflation, and specifically the sharply different views of David Rosenberg and Jim Bianco, then balance them with some thoughts from other speakers.
New home sales jumped to their highest level in over three years in April. Meanwhile the median price for a new home remained above $400,000 for a fifth straight month.
Selling your real estate portfolio, especially investment properties you and your family have held for years or decades, can be a complex process.
Shopping for bonds? The bonds you choose should align with your risk tolerance and goals. Discover what to consider before buying any bond.
As one of the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds warned this week that private equity is “very troubled” right now, a spate of recent buyout deals in Europe and the US points to a possible route out of the mire.
Real Estate
Fed’s Interest Rate Decision: June 18, 2025
The Federal Reserve concluded its fourth meeting of the year by keeping the federal funds rate (FFR) at 4.25-4.50%, as expected.
Zillow Home Value Index: "Real" Home Values Hit Lowest Level in Over Four Years
Home values fell for a third straight month in May, according to the Zillow Home Value Index. However, after adjusting for inflation, real home values declined for a 13th consecutive month, hitting their lowest level in over four years.
Wall Street Fears Hawkish Fed Will Trigger Stock Market Selloff
Not much seems to faze the stock market these days even as risks abound, from war in the Middle East, to trade tensions, to slowing growth. But Wall Street’s biggest fear arrives today when the Federal Reserve meeting ends and Chair Jerome Powell explains the central bank’s outlook.
M&A Watch: A String of Hot IPOs Could Spark Second-Half Dealmaking
Many small deals have done through, including ones from overseas, and an active calendar of corporate shareholder meetings could offer fresh insights into capital plans.
Housing Starts Fall to 5-Year Low in May
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, housing starts inched up to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.256 million in May, its lowest level in over five years.
Building Permits Hit Lowest Level in Five Years
In the latest report by the Census Bureau, building permits dropped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.393 million in May, the lowest level in nearly five years.
NAHB Housing Market Index: Builder Confidence Drops to 2.5-Year Low
Builder confidence fell for a second straight month in June as elevated rates, tariffs, and economic uncertainty dragged builder sentiment to its lowest level in 2.5 years.
Stocks Rally in May as Tariff Fears Subside; Long Yields Move Higher
Bonds hit a headwind in May as rates rose, but year to date, they have helped offset some of the volatility seen in stocks. See Table 2 for bond index returns for May 2025, Q1 2025, and YTD.
It’s Not About Trump
Michael Browne, Chief Investment Officer at Martin Currie discusses inflation, energy and the art of the possible.
Unicorn Juniper Square Sells Picks and Shovels of Private Market Boom
Venture capitalists are betting on a product that’s close to their hearts: software for venture capitalists. Juniper Square Inc., a software provider for VCs and other private investors, has raised $130 million in a deal that values the company at $1.1 billion.
Household Net Worth Q1 2025: The "Real" Story
As of Q1 2025, the latest Fed balance sheet indicates that household net worth has risen 186% since reaching its 2009 low. However, when adjusted for inflation, household net worth has actually increased by only 91% since the 2009 trough.
Weekly Economic Snapshot: Inflation Edges Up While Sentiment Rebounds
Last week’s economic signals showed cautious optimism and renewed concern. Inflation saw a slight uptick in May.
Treasury Yields Snapshot: June 13, 2025
The yield on the 10-year note ended June 13, 2025 at 4.41%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.96% and the 30-year note ended at 4.90%.
The Deficit Narrative May Find its Cure in Artificial Intelligence
Lately, the “deficit narrative” has dominated much of the financial media, particularly those channels that are continual “purveyors of doom.” In this post, we will discuss the “deficit narrative,” the likely outcomes, and why the cure for the deficit may be found in Artificial Intelligence.
3 New ETFs That Reflect Emerging 2025 Market Trends
Rampant uncertainty and ongoing market volatility in 2025 have done little to dampen the ETF industry, with innovative launches ongoing.
The Investment Signal in the Noise
Separating the signal from the noise may be the hardest challenge investors face. We’re all surrounded by constantly changing but mostly unimportant information. Of the small part that really is important, we must decide if it affects our investments.
Schwab Market Perspective: 2025 Mid-Year Outlook
Tariff policy has clouded expectations for the second half of the year, but there are ways to navigate through the fog.
The South Is Beating Inflation — But Not Housing
US economic data continue to send mixed signals, keeping uncertainty high on interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve later this year.
Fixed Income Outlook: A Not-so-Random Walk
Alex Veroude, Global Head of Fixed Income, believes fixed income investors can prepare for an uncertain journey by recognising trends and diversifying across different assets.
What Closed-End Funds Could Offer Amid Uncertain Times
Global markets may be more rattled than ever, but advisors can count on closed-end funds to offer yield, portfolio diversity, and more.
"Yen-Carry" Anniversary Nears, but Worries Fade
Summer re-runs are popular on TV, but a repeat of last August's "yen-carry" market upheaval isn't likely on the schedule. A shift in positioning by investors is one reason.
The Compute Capital Supercycle: AI’s Silent Infrastructure Revolution
In the history of technological progress, there's often a critical misreading. We think the leap is in the product—the engine, the chip, the app.
An Active Option to Ponder as Bonds Look More Compelling
With tariff news providing constant equity market fluctuations, the case for bonds becomes more compelling. The added uncertainty also punctuates the need for an active management strategy, which one particular Vanguard ETF offers.
BlackRock Targets $400 Billion Private-Market Haul by 2030
BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest asset manager, boosted its annual revenue target for 2030 and set its first-ever firmwide target for private-markets fundraising at $400 billion by then.
Deficit Pressures Treasuries… But No Crisis: US Treasury Market Is ‘Too Big to Fail’
The first half of 2025 has been driven by headlines that have caused volatility in both the stock and bond markets. While tariff negotiations have commanded the most attention, we are now pivoting to the federal budget deficit, which feels like a perpetual headline over the last 15 years.
Gundlach: Illiquid Assets Don’t Belong in Liquid Vehicles
Integrating volatile and illiquid assets into the ETF structure is something to be avoided, Doubleline CEO and CIO Gundlach said.
The Fragmentation Era
With the world order in flux, investors can look to fortify portfolios by diversifying across global markets and capitalizing on attractive, high quality yields.
A Focus on Fundamentals
While the immediate path for tariffs may drift lower, the U.S. legislative branch is hammering out a tax and spending bill that seems to favor tax cuts over lower spending, reviving worries over the U.S. budget deficit and a growing debt burden that cannot be ignored.
What's the 10-Year Outlook for Major Asset Classes?
The global economy is continually evolving due to inflation, interest rates, and geopolitics. How could these and other factors influence the major asset classes over the coming decade?
The Infrastructure That Lets the Future Happen
If we lived in a world where mobile signals were visible, the sky would shimmer like a storm—layers of frequencies rolling over rooftops, crossing oceans and saturating valleys.
2025 Mid-Year Outlook: U.S. Stocks and Economy
The U.S. economy and stock market face a confluence of challenges in the second half of the year, keeping the bar relatively (but not restrictively) high for outperformance.
Notes from the Desk: MBS Opportunities Amid Quiet Housing Market
The US housing market remains in a state of inertia. Despite the arrival of the spring selling season, both new and existing home sales continue to underwhelm.
To Graduates: Skilled Trades Can Be a Practical Path to Success
A college degree may be a milestone that represents one possible career path. But it’s not your only route toward a future that is both financially sound and deeply fulfilling.
What's Holding Back Small Caps?
Small-cap stocks tend to offer greater growth potential than their large-cap peers, but those returns have yet to materialize consistently. What will it take to turn the tide?
Blackstone Plans $500 Billion Europe Investment, CEO Says
Blackstone Inc. is planning to invest as much as $500 billion in Europe over the next 10 years, underlining the continent’s growing appeal to investors during a period of geopolitical flux.
Meet the “Hermès of Gold” the Chinese Can’t Get Enough Of
The Fear Trade is what most Western investors are familiar with. It’s the flight to safety during times of uncertainty, driven by concerns over inflation, interest rates, geopolitical risk and more.
Mid-Year Outlook: International Stocks and Economy
Investors may revisit international exposure in their portfolios amidst reduced market reactions to tariff announcements, uncertain U.S. policy and lagging U.S. stock performance.
Thoughts on Inflation
Back during the Financial Panic of 2008, clickbait media kept screaming “Hyperinflation.” We consistently pushed back against this theme, and argued inflation would not accelerate.
US Treasuries Win Some Respite as Key 30-Year Auction Looms
US Treasuries were trimming overnight gains, with modest weakness in longer dated debt as investors awaited a Thursday auction of 30-year securities that will offer a fresh test of demand for the beleaguered securities.
US Stocks Fluctuate as US-China Trade Talks Kick Off in London
US stocks flipped between small gains and losses on Monday as investors awaited the outcome of crucial trade talks between Washington and Beijing in London.
Investing Expeditions: The Ripple Effects of Trade Uncertainty
Research trips are an integral component of our active, fundamental investment process. Our investment teams meet with different companies, attend conferences, and travel to new markets around the world, gaining insights for our clients and a deeper understanding of potential investments.
Fixed Income Outlook: Cool and Cloudy
Bouts of volatility may continue in the second half of 2025 as bond market investors navigate evolving tariff policy, U.S. government debt, and economic uncertainty.
Charting the U.S. Consumer with Kristofer Kraus
Kristofer Kraus, portfolio manager and co-lead of PIMCO’s asset-based finance business, charts the nuances behind the overall resilience of U.S. consumers – and explains how these insights shape lending and investment strategies.
Barometer: Cautious on Equities as Us Flip-Flops on Tariffs
We remain underweight most developed market stocks as US tariff policy is still unclear but are more enthusiastic about emerging market assets.
Home Remodeling Bond Sales Surge as Americans Avoid Moving
Wall Street is cranking up the bond machine as US homeowners — finding that buying a new house is out of reach since mortgage rates started climbing in 2022 – are instead getting home equity loans and sprucing up their current properties.
From Tariff Angst to Optimism
In the last three months tariff news has whipped financial markets around remarkably in response to President Trump’s ever changing tariff policies. The most pronounced reactions were concentrated in the US stock market.
The Long Game: Why Private Markets May Thrive in Market Turmoil
Private investments demand patience, but the rewards could be worth the wait.
Markets are Back Near All-Time Highs, but Confidence Isn’t
Stocks rallied in May 2025 as trade tensions eased, but investor confidence remains fragile.
2025 Mid-Year Outlook: Global Stocks and Economy
Investors may revisit international exposure in their portfolios amidst reduced market reactions to tariff announcements, uncertain U.S. policy and lagging U.S. stock performance.
ISM Services PMI Contracts for First Time Since June 2024
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its May Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 49.9—below the forecast of 52.0. This marks the first contraction for the index since June 2024.
S&P Global Services PMI: Growth Strengthens in May
The May U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 53.7, above the 52.3 forecast. The reading marks the 28th consecutive month of expansion and was a noticeable pickup from April's 17-month low.
Duration – Current income opportunities
Duration is an often confused term when it comes to financial fixed income investing. After all, in your everyday life, the definition of duration is the length of time it takes for something to occur.
IPO Filings Remain Low in Q2
The muted IPO market which has become commonplace in the last few years continued in that fashion through the first five months of 2025. However, the last few weeks has brought a renewed focus to dealmaking after a couple of highly anticipated IPOs began trading, and a cryptocurrency unicorn filed to IPO.
Real Estate a Top Sector to Watch in 2025
Mortgage rates last week climbed to their highest levels since the beginning of the year on elevated economic risks. With markets still hopeful of at least one interest rate cut in the second half, the real estate sector stands poised to bounce back in a lower rate environment.
Fidelity’s Edge and the Active ETF Boom
On this week’s episode of ETF Prime, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth discusses the rise of active ETFs and anticipated ETF share class structure. Later, Fidelity’s Eric Granat and Christine Thorpe spotlight the Fidelity Hedged Equity ETF (FHEQ) and the Fidelity Total Bond ETF (FBND).
Trump Team Signals It Wants to Keep Control of Fannie, Freddie to Boost Budget
Signs are emerging that the Trump administration may be less willing to give up control of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac than investors have bargained for, as policymakers scrounge for ways to close US budget gaps.
Turning Client Anxiety Into Opportunity During Volatile Markets
Our role isn’t just to manage assets; it’s to help clients stay grounded. We remind clients that investing is a long-term journey, and short-term volatility doesn’t have to knock them off course.
Why the Recession Call Matters for Stocks
This past week, news flow around policy came in hot and heavy, with President Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful’ tax cut bill passing the House of Representatives, and Trump threatening 50% tariffs on the European Union (EU).
Use the Funded Status Metric & A ‘Surplus Bucket’ to Increase Spending in Retirement
Most clients are relatively conservative when it comes to determining how much they can afford to spend in retirement. All things being equal, clients would generally rather die with too much money than too little.
Credit Markets React to Tariffs
Similar to the equity market’s response to the recently announced tariffs, the bond market responded with a widening of credit spreads. These spreads represent the difference in yield between a U.S. Treasury bond and other bonds of the same maturity but different credit quality.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Growth Picked Up in May
U.S. manufacturing growth picked up in May, but tariffs and trade policy continued to dominate the sector's landscape. The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI remained in expansion territory for a fifth straight month in May at 52.0. The latest reading was lower than the 52.3 forecast.
Ray Dalio Is Predicting A Financial Crisis…Again.
It doesn’t take much to understand that Ray Dalio, a hedge fund titan, is like every other human being and is prone to error. I will not dismiss Dalio entirely, as his track record of managing money at Bridgewater is nothing to be scoffed at.
The Housing Market’s Next Move
With current home sales at historical lows and mortgage rates hovering between 6% and 7%, homeowners who are locked into previously secured low-interest mortgages remain hesitant to sell. In fact, existing home sales have reached depressed levels unseen in three to four decades.
Credit Spreads: Under the Radar, but Influential
Corporate credit spreads, whether investment grade or high yield, can often hint at hiccups in the stock market and the economy. But they tend to keep a low profile.
Moving Averages of the Ivy Portfolio and S&P 500: May 2025
Valid until the market close on June 30, 2025
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
A Soft Housing Market Isn’t Just a Florida and Texas Story Now
House prices are falling, and it’s no longer just a Florida and Texas story. Rising inventory across the country and still reluctant buyers mean that those looking to sell face the prospect of more competition and lower prices next spring if they don’t close on a deal soon. For buyers, holding out can mean a better price.
The Bond Market's Faith in America Is Facing a Severe Test
The market for Treasury securities is sending an increasingly troubling signal. As of last week, investors were demanding about 90 extra basis points in yield to compensate for the added risk of lending longer-term to the US government.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Up 0.7% in April
With the release of April's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.80% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.70% when we adjust for inflation, the largest monthly gain since January 2024. The year-over-year metrics are 4.47% nominal and 2.27% real.
High Yield ETF Exposure Is a Critical Component in Diversified Portfolios
Many investors have underweighted high yield bond ETF strategies in recent years, satisfied with the opportunities found in other segments of the fixed income market.
Investors May Sell in May Until Japan’s JGB Problem Goes Away
Remember last July and August when the yen carry trade blew up? At the time, the central bank surprised the market by signaling a faster pace of rate hikes than expected. Investors sold foreign currency, bought back yen and sent markets into a tailspin.
Pending Home Sales Sink 6.3% in April
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index fell more than expected in April, experiencing its largest monthly decrease since June 2022. The index came in at 71.3, the third lowest reading in the series' history.
If Anything, Bond Markets are Returning to Normal
A lot of people are worried about the level of US interest rates. “I think we should be afraid of the bond market,” billionaire investor Ray Dalio said last week.
KKR Is Fighting Private Equity’s Battle for the UK Stock Market
KKR & Co.’s recent deal for a struggling UK real estate firm was initially remarkable for landing in the midst of the American tariff turmoil. Now facing a domestic counterbid, this US-led buyout has become an emotive symbol of the London stock market’s capitulation to private equity and foreign takeovers.
No Hard Feelings: Soft vs. Hard Divide Persists
There is still a wide divergence between hard and soft data, and a recovery in the latter is likely to be weak absent a meaningful reduction in policy uncertainty.
Does a 529 Plan Earn Interest?
529 plans do not earn interest like a traditional savings account. However, they offer strong growth potential through a range of investment options.
Housing Reforms On The Horizon?
Some of the most useful financial advice has a homespun tone, like to make hay while the sun is shining or save up for a rainy day. I recently encountered another helpful idea in that vein: Think of your house like a family member who is always sick.
40 Million Opportunities to Lead With Advice
In this article, I focus on five essential age-based milestones and life events that collectively present more than 40 million advice opportunities, enabling financial advisors to showcase their care and expertise beyond traditional investment strategies.
Understanding Mortgage-Backed Securities Investing
Residential mortgage-backed securities, or MBS, are a big part of the securitized investment market. Here's what to know about MBS investing.
TAGG Delivers Active Benefits Within Core Bonds
Mounting concerns regarding growing U.S. government deficits and a volatile tariff policy create a challenging backdrop for U.S. bonds.
SS&C ALPS Advisors’ Paul Baiocchi Talks Active ETFs, Thematics, & More
SS&C ALPS Advisors’ Paul Baiocchi dives into key ETF trends, from active and alternatively-weighted strategies to international and thematic ETFs. VettaFi’s Cinthia Murphy goes inside the world of S&P 500 ETFs, exploring several unique angles to the industry’s flagship products.
The Silver Tsunami Is Keeping the US Economy on Track
There are plenty of reasons to be concerned about the direction of the US economy right now.
Wealth Planning in a League of Its Own: Guidance for Professional Athletes
Without proper financial guidance and planning, the end of their career could be followed by serious financial difficulties. While every athlete’s legal, tax, and financial picture is different, here are some of the topics that should be reviewed with athletes.
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index: 3.4% Annual Gain in March
Home prices declined in March as the benchmark national index fell for the first time since January 2023. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.3% decrease month-over-month (MoM), and a 3.4% increase year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to -0.7% and YoY fell to -1.0%.
FHFA House Price Index Down 0.1% in March
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) fell to 436.6 in March, the first monthly decline since August 2022. U.S. house prices were down 0.1% from the previous month, lower than the expected 0.1% growth, and up 4.6% from one year ago.
Existing Home Sales Inch Down 0.5% in April
Existing home sales inched down in April, reaching their lowest level in seven months. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales fell 0.5% from March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.00 million units in April.
Inflation Standoff
My next few letters will share some initial thoughts from SIC organized around the major topics. Today we’ll start with inflation, and specifically the sharply different views of David Rosenberg and Jim Bianco, then balance them with some thoughts from other speakers.
New Home Sales Jump to Three-Year High in April
New home sales jumped to their highest level in over three years in April. Meanwhile the median price for a new home remained above $400,000 for a fifth straight month.
What Comes After the Sale? Turning Real Estate Liquidity Into a Long-Term Wealth Strategy
Selling your real estate portfolio, especially investment properties you and your family have held for years or decades, can be a complex process.
How to Buy Bonds: A 3-Step Guide
Shopping for bonds? The bonds you choose should align with your risk tolerance and goals. Discover what to consider before buying any bond.
Private Equity's Big Guns Are Tearing Up the Rules on Leverage
As one of the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds warned this week that private equity is “very troubled” right now, a spate of recent buyout deals in Europe and the US points to a possible route out of the mire.