An “insurance renaissance” is quietly reshaping a traditionally sleepy industry as a surge in annuities sales fuels demand for investment products with shorter duration and less liquidity, according to AllianceBernstein, an $806 billion asset manager owned by insurer Equitable.
In the week ending March 8th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 220,000. This represents a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was lower than the 226,000 forecast.
In a world of rich valuations and heightened geopolitical uncertainties, we believe Japanese equities are well positioned to deliver attractive returns.
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.
Inflation cooled for the first time in five months in February. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index was at 2.8% year-over-year, lower than the expected 2.9% growth. Core CPI also came in lower than expected, cooling to 3.1% year-over-year.
If you have ever filed a homeowners insurance claim, you know it can feel more like an endurance test than a straightforward process. While insurers are legally required to honor valid claims, they have strong financial incentives to delay, underpay, or deny them whenever possible.
US consumer prices rose at the slowest pace in four months in February, offering some reprieve ahead of tariffs that are expected to drive costs higher.
Blackstone Inc. has won approval from the US Securities and Exchange Commission to launch its newest private credit fund, one of the latest efforts to give individuals access to assets that are mostly backed by institutions.
What does the ratio of unemployment claims to the civilian labor force tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting next week, shifting the market’s focus to signals about what comes next.
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In February, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 151,000, while the unemployment rate inched up to 4.1%.
Ever since interest rates got up off the floor in 2022, there’s been increased interest in credit, and that’s why I’m devoting this memo to it. It’ll come a little closer than usual to “talking my book,” but I think the subject justifies that.
In the week ending March 1st, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 221,000. This represents a decrease of 21,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was lower than the 234,000 forecast.
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the February 2025 close.
The February U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 51.0, higher than the 49.7 forecast. The reading marks the 25th consecutive month of expansion but is the slowest growth since November 2023.
A holistic approach may help insurance investors navigate an expansive opportunity set.
In this primer we define small cap growth funds, provide practical suggestions on how to invest in them, and explain why we believe they are a strategically important asset class.
Russ Koesterich discusses the risk of higher interest rates and the potential impact (both positive and negative) such a move could have on markets.
Is the US already in recession? Probably not. But in the first quarter, real GDP is very likely to have a minus sign in front of it. Yes, a negative reading for real growth!
The central question we want to address in this note is how to quantify how “price sensitive” insurance buyers should be, and in the context of insurance, what is the “price” they should be sensitive to?
They’re a tempting proposition for anyone getting worried about the bull market’s longevity: exchange-traded funds that keep you from losing money — should stocks suddenly go south.
Many independent firms and Registered Investment Advisors aspire to move upmarket, targeting wealthier clients who demand more sophisticated financial solutions.
AI drug developer Recursion Pharmaceuticals Inc. is considering an Amazon Prime-style subscription model for selling its pipeline of medicines.
We delve into the unprecedented level of equity risk investors are taking, the record-high uncertainty measures facing further impacts from deglobalization, and the benefits of maintaining a diversified portfolio through it all.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.7% in January and is up 4.0% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.4% month-over-month and up 1.5% year-over-year.
An aggressive U.S. tariff regime will come down hard on major economies.
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index fell more than expected in January, dropping to its lowest level on record. The index came in at 70.6, a 4.6% decline from the previous month and a 5.2% drop from one year ago. Pending home sales were expected to fall 0.9% month-over-month.
Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) takes a pivotal role in shaping how America approaches cryptocurrency and blockchain technology.
Warren Buffett's latest shareholder letter contains the usual folksy mix of wisdom and humor.
Unfortunately, I hear stories about people unwilling to seek HR help for many reasons. It is a tragedy when this happens because good HR support can be the key to helping with so many things.
In the second half of 2024 the risk premia associated with inflation releases declined relative to labor market data as the Fed shifted focus toward labor market and away from inflation risk. With elevated S&P 500 Index concentration and the market leadership of the artificial intelligence (AI) theme, some single company earnings (NVIDIA) have been rising risk events for the entire index.
Existing home sales started the year with their first decline in four months. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales retreated 4.9% from December, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.08 million units in January.
Consider estate planning strategies to minimize the impact of taxes on your estate. Our Bill Cass highlights several key actions including document reviews, naming beneficiaries and the use of 529 college savings plans to enhance tax efficiency.
The healthcare industry's bellwether event, the JP Morgan Healthcare Conference (JPM25), kicked off the year as it traditionally does,
Many boomers are business owners who are selling their businesses. This article provides guidance for these retiring business owners, their heirs and their advisors. This article also discusses opportunities for investors to capitalize on this once-in-a-lifetime mass exodus of baby boomer business owners.
We are about to enter a new era – the era of the personal defined benefit pension. And I predict that over the next few years, it will be RIAs that deliver these personal plans to millions of Americans. Before I explain how this transformation will unfold, let me first explain why it must unfold.
Builder confidence fell sharply in February due to concerns on tariffs, elevated mortgage rates, and high housing costs. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) dropped to 42 this month, down five points from January. The latest reading was below the 46 forecast.
For a few months now, I’ve been referring to today’s heightened geopolitical climate as the “new red Cold War,” where artificial intelligence (AI)—not necessarily fighter jets and nuclear weapons—serves as the primary battleground between the U.S. and its adversaries, most notably Russia and China.
For 2025 tax planning, our Bill Cass shares income tax planning strategies that can help manage current tax bills and prepare for future changes. Here are the highlights.
The professional development journey for financial professionals is best approached through a structured three-step process involving foundational designations, advanced level specializations, and niche market concentrations.
Adding cash-flow-matched bond strategies to a total return strategy appears to improve total return relative to risk by reducing the likelihood of poor outcomes.
Markets, as many of you are aware, don’t like uncertainty. And right now, there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy.
The best performing US blue-chip bond funds of 2024 are sticking to their winning playbook: investing in debt from riskier blue-chip companies, as well as firms that can handle economic turbulence — and avoiding corporations sensitive to interest-rate risk.
US job growth moderated in January while annual revisions from the government also revealed less vigor in the labor market last year than previously thought.
Impact investors can help devastated communities recover and build resilience.
Macquarie Group Ltd. is shuttering its US debt capital markets arm, a business that includes leveraged loan origination, syndication and trading, to focus resources on private credit, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
In the face of uncertainties, financial advisors are uniquely positioned to help their clients prepare for the unexpected. By leveraging innovative risk management solutions, advisors can help businesses gain the stability they need to weather today’s disruptions and build resilience for the future.
Last week’s volatility in AI-related stocks shows markets are learning in real time about the transformation underway.
With age comes some insights and as we head into 2025, now is as good a time as any to look back on some of the lessons from my investing career that have served me well.
Managers see mixed opportunities in emerging markets and a broadening opportunity set for small caps across global markets.
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why gold may continue to advance in 2025 despite a stronger dollar and elevated real rate environment.
A surprise is a completely unexpected outcome. By definition, a surprise is improbable, and its occurrence is rare. It seems strange then to try to predict three of them every year.
Economic indicators provide insight into the overall health and performance of the economy. They are closely watched by many.
Can corporate profits reignite after a rocky 2024? This earnings season could either fuel the market’s fire or leave it gasping for air.
For stocks, Christmas came with a 'Santa Clause' rally soon after the election. Since then, there's been a correction in US markets.
This article provides the Beaumont Capital Management Q4 2024 Market and Strategy Commentary - Decathlon Strategies.
Senior Investment Strategist Tracey Manzi notes that the Federal Reserve's ongoing easing cycle should benefit short to intermediate maturities.
A few months ago, the Census Bureau released its annual report on household income data for 2023. During 2023, the median (middle) average household income rose 8.0% to $80,730. Let's take a closer look at the quintile averages, which dates from 1967, along with the statistics for the top 5%.
State and federal agencies are providing immediate assistance and financial aid for essentials for wildfire victims in California. Our Bill Cass shares some financial strategies to secure emergency funds and plan finances.
Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio has a new book to promote. So while I am loath to fuel the sales campaign, his latest bomb in an interview with the Financial Times — warning of a “death spiral” for Britain’s sovereign debt — requires a riposte.
Markets vigorously adjusted expectations for a new regulatory, economic, and geopolitical landscape driven by U.S. politics.
Rebuilding is the first of many challenges from natural disasters.
On this episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s head of research, Todd Rosenbluth, discussed the Invesco KBW Bank ETF (KBWB) with Chuck Jaffe of Money Life. The pair discussed several topics related to the fund to give investors a deeper understanding of the ETF overall.
Since the start of the new year, the bond market has been urging Congress to come to terms with America’s spiraling budget problems. Soon it might be demanding immediate action.
At the start of every year, we publish our popular Periodic Table of Commodity Returns, an interactive infographic of the gains and losses across the commodities market.
Outlooks for higher education and healthcare are the weakest while transportation and essential utilities are the strongest. Resiliency to withstand an economic downturn is strong for all sectors.
The wildfires may affect some municipal bond issuers in the devastated areas, but the impact to other California bonds or to the broader muni market is likely limited.
The latest updates on the labor market and consumer prices show President-elect Donald Trump inherits an economy where inflation is poised to return to the Federal Reserve’s target later this year.
Amid an unsettled global economic outlook and elevated equity valuations, bond markets present attractive yields and important diversification benefits.
Use this guide to transform our 2024 Retirement Insights into action in 2025, focusing on areas of plan design, tax credits and participant engagement. Our Mike Dullaghan shares the highlights.
Although we are loath to make predictions, conditions appear to be favorable for fixed income in the coming year, and we think investors should consider adjusting their allocations accordingly.
The median US income in 2023 was $80,610, up from $22,420 in 1984 — a 260% rise over the 39-year time frame. However, if we adjust for inflation chained in 2023 dollars, the 1984 median is $55,828, and the increase drops to 37%.
On top of the human tragedy they’re still inflicting, the Los Angeles wildfires are exposing a gap between what people thought their homes were worth and what they’ll actually get from insurance companies when those houses have been reduced to ash. Potentially thousands of homeowners are learning it won’t be nearly enough.
Engaging up front with four key workstreams may smooth the process of adding a solution.
We need to face the reality that we’ve chosen a system that prioritizes lower taxes over centralized health care.
Private equity wants access to Americans’ retirement accounts, and is lobbying President-elect Donald Trump’s administration to get it.
The journey from niche asset to core allocation looks set to continue.
Our commentary on household income distribution offers some fascinating insights into average U.S. household incomes, but misses the implications of age for income. In this update, we examine household income with a focus on age bracket.
In the week ending January 4th, initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level since February 2024. Initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 201,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was better than the 214,000 forecast.
In our year ahead outlook, we unveil 5 key factors we believe offer rare certainty in these uncertain times. Discover how we’re navigating this landscape and positioning portfolios to seize opportunities and mitigate risks in the year ahead.
Our Cash Indicator methodology acts as a plan in case of an emergency. Investors should expect more equity market volatility ahead.
President-elect Donald Trump is said to be interested in the privatization of the US Postal Service, a prospect that also appeals to his DOGE project and its allies in Congress.
Three interconnected lessons from 2024 help shape our 2025 outlook.
On this special New Year’s episode of “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth joined Chuck Jaffe of Money Life to talk about the year in review. The two discussed the top ETF stories of 2024, including the record-breaking $1 trillion in ETF industry AUM, the rise of bitcoin ETFs, and ongoing adoption of options-based ETFs.
MicroStrategy Inc. bought $101 million of Bitcoin after announcing that it would use perpetual preferred stock as well as common shares and debt to acquire more of the cryptocurrency.
Enrollees in Medicare Advantage may end up paying steep costs for specialty care that doesn't meet their healthcare needs, advisors shared.
Caryl Falvey shares retirement-conversation insights from MIT Agelabs and MassMutual Strategic Distributors.
Although the general public might not pay much attention to such price swings, they still leave a serious impact on global trade and investment.
Insurance & Annuities
An ‘Insurance Renaissance’ Is Fueling Private Credit Surge, Says AllianceBernstein
An “insurance renaissance” is quietly reshaping a traditionally sleepy industry as a surge in annuities sales fuels demand for investment products with shorter duration and less liquidity, according to AllianceBernstein, an $806 billion asset manager owned by insurer Equitable.
Unemployment Claims Down 2K, Lower Than Expected
In the week ending March 8th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 220,000. This represents a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was lower than the 226,000 forecast.
Three Reasons We’re Overweight Japanese Equities
In a world of rich valuations and heightened geopolitical uncertainties, we believe Japanese equities are well positioned to deliver attractive returns.
Inside the Consumer Price Index: February 2025
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.
Consumer Price Index: Inflation Cools to 2.8% in February
Inflation cooled for the first time in five months in February. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index was at 2.8% year-over-year, lower than the expected 2.9% growth. Core CPI also came in lower than expected, cooling to 3.1% year-over-year.
How to Get Results on Homeowner Insurance Claims
If you have ever filed a homeowners insurance claim, you know it can feel more like an endurance test than a straightforward process. While insurers are legally required to honor valid claims, they have strong financial incentives to delay, underpay, or deny them whenever possible.
US Inflation Eases, Offering Some Relief Ahead of Tariffs
US consumer prices rose at the slowest pace in four months in February, offering some reprieve ahead of tariffs that are expected to drive costs higher.
SEC Approves Retail-Friendly Blackstone Private Credit Fund
Blackstone Inc. has won approval from the US Securities and Exchange Commission to launch its newest private credit fund, one of the latest efforts to give individuals access to assets that are mostly backed by institutions.
Unemployment Claims and the CLF as a Recession Indicator: February 2025
What does the ratio of unemployment claims to the civilian labor force tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?
The Fed’s Fixation on a 2% Inflation Target Is Risky
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting next week, shifting the market’s focus to signals about what comes next.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: February Employment
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In February, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 151,000, while the unemployment rate inched up to 4.1%.
Gimme Credit
Ever since interest rates got up off the floor in 2022, there’s been increased interest in credit, and that’s why I’m devoting this memo to it. It’ll come a little closer than usual to “talking my book,” but I think the subject justifies that.
Unemployment Claims Down 21K, Lower Than Expected
In the week ending March 1st, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 221,000. This represents a decrease of 21,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was lower than the 234,000 forecast.
The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since 2000 Highs as of February 2025
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the February 2025 close.
S&P Global Services PMI: Slowest Growth Since November 2023
The February U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 51.0, higher than the 49.7 forecast. The reading marks the 25th consecutive month of expansion but is the slowest growth since November 2023.
Commercial Real Estate Debt: Time for Insurers to Take a Closer Look?
A holistic approach may help insurance investors navigate an expansive opportunity set.
What is a Small Cap Growth Fund?
In this primer we define small cap growth funds, provide practical suggestions on how to invest in them, and explain why we believe they are a strategically important asset class.
Rates Still a Risk for Stocks
Russ Koesterich discusses the risk of higher interest rates and the potential impact (both positive and negative) such a move could have on markets.
Recession Alert?
Is the US already in recession? Probably not. But in the first quarter, real GDP is very likely to have a minus sign in front of it. Yes, a negative reading for real growth!
How Much Insurance Is Right for You?
The central question we want to address in this note is how to quantify how “price sensitive” insurance buyers should be, and in the context of insurance, what is the “price” they should be sensitive to?
Boom in Loss-Limiting Funds With $51 Billion Sparks Backlash
They’re a tempting proposition for anyone getting worried about the bull market’s longevity: exchange-traded funds that keep you from losing money — should stocks suddenly go south.
Real Talk With Rias: Considering Moving Upmarket? Here Are Some Issues to Consider
Many independent firms and Registered Investment Advisors aspire to move upmarket, targeting wealthier clients who demand more sophisticated financial solutions.
AI Drug Firm Recursion Wants to Be the Amazon Prime of Pharma
AI drug developer Recursion Pharmaceuticals Inc. is considering an Amazon Prime-style subscription model for selling its pipeline of medicines.
Historically Confident Investors Meet Historically Uncertain World
We delve into the unprecedented level of equity risk investors are taking, the record-high uncertainty measures facing further impacts from deglobalization, and the benefits of maintaining a diversified portfolio through it all.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income Up 0.4% in January
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.7% in January and is up 4.0% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.4% month-over-month and up 1.5% year-over-year.
Tariff-fied
An aggressive U.S. tariff regime will come down hard on major economies.
Pending Home Sales Sink to All Time Low
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index fell more than expected in January, dropping to its lowest level on record. The index came in at 70.6, a 4.6% decline from the previous month and a 5.2% drop from one year ago. Pending home sales were expected to fall 0.9% month-over-month.
Leading the Financial Revolution: Senator Lummis, Bitcoin and the Future of U.S. Digital Policy
Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) takes a pivotal role in shaping how America approaches cryptocurrency and blockchain technology.
Is Warren Buffett's True Successor Bill Ackman?
Warren Buffett's latest shareholder letter contains the usual folksy mix of wisdom and humor.
Dealing With Workplace Anxiety
Unfortunately, I hear stories about people unwilling to seek HR help for many reasons. It is a tragedy when this happens because good HR support can be the key to helping with so many things.
What Scares the S&P 500?
In the second half of 2024 the risk premia associated with inflation releases declined relative to labor market data as the Fed shifted focus toward labor market and away from inflation risk. With elevated S&P 500 Index concentration and the market leadership of the artificial intelligence (AI) theme, some single company earnings (NVIDIA) have been rising risk events for the entire index.
Existing Home Sales Retreat 4.9% in January
Existing home sales started the year with their first decline in four months. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales retreated 4.9% from December, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.08 million units in January.
Five Estate Planning Ideas for 2025
Consider estate planning strategies to minimize the impact of taxes on your estate. Our Bill Cass highlights several key actions including document reviews, naming beneficiaries and the use of 529 college savings plans to enhance tax efficiency.
2025 Outlook: Healthcare Technology & Innovation
The healthcare industry's bellwether event, the JP Morgan Healthcare Conference (JPM25), kicked off the year as it traditionally does,
Your Millennial Clients Could See Opportunities as Your Boomer Clients Sell Businesses
Many boomers are business owners who are selling their businesses. This article provides guidance for these retiring business owners, their heirs and their advisors. This article also discusses opportunities for investors to capitalize on this once-in-a-lifetime mass exodus of baby boomer business owners.
How RIAs Could Help Solve America’s Retirement Income Crisis
We are about to enter a new era – the era of the personal defined benefit pension. And I predict that over the next few years, it will be RIAs that deliver these personal plans to millions of Americans. Before I explain how this transformation will unfold, let me first explain why it must unfold.
NAHB Housing Market Index: Builder Confidence Fell Sharply in February
Builder confidence fell sharply in February due to concerns on tariffs, elevated mortgage rates, and high housing costs. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) dropped to 42 this month, down five points from January. The latest reading was below the 46 forecast.
How AI Is Reshaping Aerospace & Defense Investment Opportunities
For a few months now, I’ve been referring to today’s heightened geopolitical climate as the “new red Cold War,” where artificial intelligence (AI)—not necessarily fighter jets and nuclear weapons—serves as the primary battleground between the U.S. and its adversaries, most notably Russia and China.
Key Planning Ideas to Maximize Your 2025 Tax Savings
For 2025 tax planning, our Bill Cass shares income tax planning strategies that can help manage current tax bills and prepare for future changes. Here are the highlights.
The Benefits of Designations for Financial Professionals: A Three Step Approach
The professional development journey for financial professionals is best approached through a structured three-step process involving foundational designations, advanced level specializations, and niche market concentrations.
Putting ‘Fixed Income’ Back Into Fixed Income: Cash-Flow-Matched Bond Strategies for Retirees
Adding cash-flow-matched bond strategies to a total return strategy appears to improve total return relative to risk by reducing the likelihood of poor outcomes.
Could Trump’s Tariff Revenues Fund a New U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund?
Markets, as many of you are aware, don’t like uncertainty. And right now, there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy.
Investors See High-Grade Debt, MBS as Top Bets of 2025
The best performing US blue-chip bond funds of 2024 are sticking to their winning playbook: investing in debt from riskier blue-chip companies, as well as firms that can handle economic turbulence — and avoiding corporations sensitive to interest-rate risk.
US Job Growth Slowed in January After 2024 Downward Revision
US job growth moderated in January while annual revisions from the government also revealed less vigor in the labor market last year than previously thought.
California Wildfires: Municipal Bond Investors Can Make a Difference
Impact investors can help devastated communities recover and build resilience.
Principal, Pimco Bet on Debt From Riskier High-Grade Companies
The best performing US blue-chip bond funds of 2024 are sticking to their winning playbook: investing in debt from riskier blue-chip companies, as well as firms that can handle economic turbulence — and avoiding corporations sensitive to interest-rate risk.
Macquarie Shuts US Debt Capital Markets in Private Credit Pivot
Macquarie Group Ltd. is shuttering its US debt capital markets arm, a business that includes leveraged loan origination, syndication and trading, to focus resources on private credit, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
Red Dye, Wildfires, and Winter Storms in Wichita Have 1 Thing in Common
In the face of uncertainties, financial advisors are uniquely positioned to help their clients prepare for the unexpected. By leveraging innovative risk management solutions, advisors can help businesses gain the stability they need to weather today’s disruptions and build resilience for the future.
AI Mega Force Could Be Accelerating
Last week’s volatility in AI-related stocks shows markets are learning in real time about the transformation underway.
Lessons From My Investing Career
With age comes some insights and as we head into 2025, now is as good a time as any to look back on some of the lessons from my investing career that have served me well.
February 2025 Active Management Insights: Increased Global Opportunities in Small Caps
Managers see mixed opportunities in emerging markets and a broadening opportunity set for small caps across global markets.
Stay Long Gold, Just Not as a Hedge
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why gold may continue to advance in 2025 despite a stronger dollar and elevated real rate environment.
Three Surprises for 2025: Overcoming One-way Investor Sentiment
A surprise is a completely unexpected outcome. By definition, a surprise is improbable, and its occurrence is rare. It seems strange then to try to predict three of them every year.
Weekly Economic Snapshot: Signs of Strength & Softness
Economic indicators provide insight into the overall health and performance of the economy. They are closely watched by many.
Trading Q4 Earnings: Will Bulls Fly or Just Get Gored?
Can corporate profits reignite after a rocky 2024? This earnings season could either fuel the market’s fire or leave it gasping for air.
Not Time Yet for Stocks to Worry About Rising Rates
For stocks, Christmas came with a 'Santa Clause' rally soon after the election. Since then, there's been a correction in US markets.
Priced for Perfection: S&P 500 Increasingly Dependent on the AI Trade
This article provides the Beaumont Capital Management Q4 2024 Market and Strategy Commentary - Decathlon Strategies.
2025 Fixed Income Outlook
Senior Investment Strategist Tracey Manzi notes that the Federal Reserve's ongoing easing cycle should benefit short to intermediate maturities.
U.S. Household Incomes: A 50+ Year Perspective
A few months ago, the Census Bureau released its annual report on household income data for 2023. During 2023, the median (middle) average household income rose 8.0% to $80,730. Let's take a closer look at the quintile averages, which dates from 1967, along with the statistics for the top 5%.
Rebuilding Hope: Immediate Assistance and Financial Guidance for Wildfire Victims
State and federal agencies are providing immediate assistance and financial aid for essentials for wildfire victims in California. Our Bill Cass shares some financial strategies to secure emergency funds and plan finances.
No, Ray Dalio, There's Not a UK Debt Death Spiral
Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio has a new book to promote. So while I am loath to fuel the sales campaign, his latest bomb in an interview with the Financial Times — warning of a “death spiral” for Britain’s sovereign debt — requires a riposte.
Q4 2024 Commentary: Defying Expectations, Embracing Optimization
Markets vigorously adjusted expectations for a new regulatory, economic, and geopolitical landscape driven by U.S. politics.
Earth, Wind, and Fire
Rebuilding is the first of many challenges from natural disasters.
Invesco KBW Bank ETF (KBWB)
On this episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s head of research, Todd Rosenbluth, discussed the Invesco KBW Bank ETF (KBWB) with Chuck Jaffe of Money Life. The pair discussed several topics related to the fund to give investors a deeper understanding of the ETF overall.
Restoring Fiscal Control Can’t Wait Much Longer
Since the start of the new year, the bond market has been urging Congress to come to terms with America’s spiraling budget problems. Soon it might be demanding immediate action.
Periodic Table of Commodity Returns Revels Winners and Losers for 2024
At the start of every year, we publish our popular Periodic Table of Commodity Returns, an interactive infographic of the gains and losses across the commodities market.
2025 Municipal Bond Sector Outlook: Stability and Resiliency
Outlooks for higher education and healthcare are the weakest while transportation and essential utilities are the strongest. Resiliency to withstand an economic downturn is strong for all sectors.
Are California Fires a Risk to the Muni Market?
The wildfires may affect some municipal bond issuers in the devastated areas, but the impact to other California bonds or to the broader muni market is likely limited.
The Inflation Genie Is Moving to the White House
The latest updates on the labor market and consumer prices show President-elect Donald Trump inherits an economy where inflation is poised to return to the Federal Reserve’s target later this year.
Uncertainty Is Certain
Amid an unsettled global economic outlook and elevated equity valuations, bond markets present attractive yields and important diversification benefits.
Transforming 2024 Insights Into 2025 Action
Use this guide to transform our 2024 Retirement Insights into action in 2025, focusing on areas of plan design, tax credits and participant engagement. Our Mike Dullaghan shares the highlights.
Strategic Income Outlook: Magic 8-Ball Says, “Cannot Predict Now”
Although we are loath to make predictions, conditions appear to be favorable for fixed income in the coming year, and we think investors should consider adjusting their allocations accordingly.
Median Household Income by State: 2023 Update
The median US income in 2023 was $80,610, up from $22,420 in 1984 — a 260% rise over the 39-year time frame. However, if we adjust for inflation chained in 2023 dollars, the 1984 median is $55,828, and the increase drops to 37%.
The $2 Trillion Home Insurance Nightmare Is Getting Even Worse
On top of the human tragedy they’re still inflicting, the Los Angeles wildfires are exposing a gap between what people thought their homes were worth and what they’ll actually get from insurance companies when those houses have been reduced to ash. Potentially thousands of homeowners are learning it won’t be nearly enough.
Early Groundwork Is Key for Implementing Lifetime Income Solutions
Engaging up front with four key workstreams may smooth the process of adding a solution.
The Missing Piece in America’s Healthcare Debate
We need to face the reality that we’ve chosen a system that prioritizes lower taxes over centralized health care.
Private Equity Does Not Belong in Your 401(k)
Private equity wants access to Americans’ retirement accounts, and is lobbying President-elect Donald Trump’s administration to get it.
Private Credit Outlook: Expanding the Universe
The journey from niche asset to core allocation looks set to continue.
Median Household Incomes by Age Bracket: 1967-2023
Our commentary on household income distribution offers some fascinating insights into average U.S. household incomes, but misses the implications of age for income. In this update, we examine household income with a focus on age bracket.
U.S. Household Incomes: A 50+ Year Perspective
A few months ago, the Census Bureau released its annual report on household income data for 2023. During 2023, the median (middle) average household income rose 8.0% to $80,730. Let's take a closer look at the quintile averages, which dates from 1967, along with the statistics for the top 5%.
Unemployment Claims Drop to 11-Month Low
In the week ending January 4th, initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level since February 2024. Initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 201,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was better than the 214,000 forecast.
2025 Year Ahead: Certainties for an Uncertain World
In our year ahead outlook, we unveil 5 key factors we believe offer rare certainty in these uncertain times. Discover how we’re navigating this landscape and positioning portfolios to seize opportunities and mitigate risks in the year ahead.
The January 25 Dashboard: Our 3 Layers of Risk Management
Our Cash Indicator methodology acts as a plan in case of an emergency. Investors should expect more equity market volatility ahead.
Privatize the USPS? Not in an Era of Crony Capitalism
President-elect Donald Trump is said to be interested in the privatization of the US Postal Service, a prospect that also appeals to his DOGE project and its allies in Congress.
Three Investment Lessons From 2024
Three interconnected lessons from 2024 help shape our 2025 outlook.
Biggest ETF Stories of 2024
On this special New Year’s episode of “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth joined Chuck Jaffe of Money Life to talk about the year in review. The two discussed the top ETF stories of 2024, including the record-breaking $1 trillion in ETF industry AUM, the rise of bitcoin ETFs, and ongoing adoption of options-based ETFs.
MicroStrategy Buys Bitcoin After Adding Preferred Offering
MicroStrategy Inc. bought $101 million of Bitcoin after announcing that it would use perpetual preferred stock as well as common shares and debt to acquire more of the cryptocurrency.
Ignore Concerns About Medicare Advantage at Your Peril
Enrollees in Medicare Advantage may end up paying steep costs for specialty care that doesn't meet their healthcare needs, advisors shared.
Why Words Matter in Client Conversations About Retirement
Caryl Falvey shares retirement-conversation insights from MIT Agelabs and MassMutual Strategic Distributors.
How Climate Volatility Is Redefining Commodity Markets
Although the general public might not pay much attention to such price swings, they still leave a serious impact on global trade and investment.