Recent growth data have been muddled and subject to conflicting interpretations. There have been mixed signals from leading indicators and hard data and divergent readings across major economies.
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of those indicators, nonfarm employment. August saw a 142,000 increase in total nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment fell to 4.2%.
Candidate tax policies could affect municipal bonds, but the bigger picture is important too.
In the week ending August 31st, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 227,000, falling to a two-month low. This represents a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's figure and is better than the 231,000 economists were expecting.
In this edition, Harold Evensky explores the challenges facing sustainable and active funds, the implications of the new DOL Fiduciary Rule, and the value of long-term performance projections. With candid observations and critical analysis--read on to gain perspective on navigating the complex world of investing, the importance of risk management, and the role of fiduciary advisors in securing your financial future.
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the August 2024 close.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.32% in July and is up 4.1% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.16% month-over-month and up 1.6% year-over-year.
College students may want to secure legal documents to ensure their parents can access important information and help them in medical emergencies. Our Bill Cass highlights the key documents students can prepare before leaving for college.
If your home and/or its contents are destroyed or damaged by a disaster such as a fire or flood, the insurance company will need a complete list of what was lost. Do you have such a list?
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR)unexpectedly fell 5.5% in July to 70.2, its lowest level in history. Pending home sales were expected to inch up 0.2% from the previous month. The index is down 8.5% from one year ago.
HSAs are increasingly coming into use. They are a more tax-efficient means of investing, withdrawing money to cover large healthcare expenses, or simply preparing for higher medical costs in one’s later years.
Will 2030 DC plans perform better at preparing U.S. workers for retirement?
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. became the first US company outside of the tech sector to surpass $1 trillion in market value.
The most glaring uncertainties today, which contributed to early August seeing some of the largest market moves in the last several years, are the risks associated with the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate.
Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas discusses his top ETF stories, industry “white space”, crypto ETFs, and much more. VettaFi’s Cinthia Murphy offers perspective on the future of ARK Invest and Cathie Wood.
California wants some insurance against pump prices. But in proposing that oil companies there hold a minimum stockpile of fuels, the state is also, and less obviously, seeking insurance against the complications of its own energy policies. In seeking to kill off gasoline demand but ensure suppliers stay engaged for years to come, the state is confronting one of the central challenges of the energy transition.
To understand the importance of involving both spouses in the discussion, we asked our very own Vicky Frye, Director of FinTech Innovation and Cybersecurity Strategies at WMGNA, for her comments on this topic.
Existing home sales rose for the first time since February, ending a four-month skid. According to the data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales were up 1.3% from June, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.95 million units in July. This figure came in just above the expected 3.94 million. Existing home sales are down 2.5% compared to one year ago.
Amid expectations of rate cuts from major central banks, managers are increasing their exposure to more cyclical and value-oriented names, including autos, transportation, and short-cycle industrials.
Many financial advisors exhibit a risk-averse attitude, leading to missed opportunities for growth and innovation.
The worst of the housing affordability crisis is behind us. But the past two years have shown that housing isn’t a bubble that is likely to pop overnight, nor can prices be forced lower in the short term with government intervention. Rising incomes, falling mortgage rates, more construction and thoughtful policy will slowly chip away at the affordability problem.
Given the inevitable ups and downs of the financial world, the joy of missing out on the frenzy might be a strong component of long-term financial and emotional wellbeing.
US job growth in the year through March was likely far less robust than initially estimated, which risks fueling concerns that the Federal Reserve is falling further behind the curve to lower interest rates.
Are the “Mega-Cap” stocks dead? Maybe. But there are four reasons why they could be staged for a comeback. The recent market correction from the July peak certainly got investors’ attention and rattled the more extreme complacency.
Silver is an important component of solar photovoltaic (PV) panels, meaning that for China to reach its ambitious climate targets, it must import massive amounts of the white metal. In June alone, China spent over $228 million on silver, a new monthly record based on Bloomberg data going back to 2009.
While high rates can make borrowing costlier and slow down housing markets, they also open favorable opportunities in financial products like annuities. In other words, annuities are back and stronger than ever before!
Head fake is a trading term, too. Some bit of information convinces investors a market is going to move a certain way. They reposition their portfolios accordingly… just in time to find out the information was wrong. Oof.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) decreased in July to its lowest level since April 2020. The index fell 0.6% from the previous month to 100.4, marking its fifth consecutive monthly decline.
Just as bond traders grow more assured that inflation is finally under control, a camp of investors is quietly building up protection against the risk of a future spike in prices.
Most DC plan participants pursue retirement readiness unassisted, but few grasp what’s required, according to our latest survey.
Portfolio Manager Jeremy Sutch, CFA, and Chief Investment Officer Sean Taylor assess the issues besetting the region’s key markets—from domestic challenges to geopolitical headwinds—as well as their structural strengths, and whether prospects may brighten with the onset of a U.S. rate-cutting cycle.
Advisors are offering customized holistic wealth management to their clients and their families to help ensure an orderly transition of wealth
Builder confidence fell further in August as a lack of affordability and buyer hesitation continue to slow down the market. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) dropped to 39 this month, its lowest level of the year. The latest reading came was below the forecast of 43.
It's a good time to revisit which equity market sectors are defensive themes. Certain products are nondiscretionary we can't live without.
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
Inflation cooled for a fourth straight month in July, dropping to its lowest level since March 2021. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index fell to 2.9% year-over-year, lower than the expected 3.0% growth. Additionally, core CPI cooled to 3.2% as expected.
The tricky last yards of closing in on — and then maintaining — the hallowed 2% inflation target that all the major central banks adhere to requires a change of tactics. Over the past two years, a mantra of economic data-dependency has been drummed into us, keeping interest rates higher for longer.
The acquisition further expands Janus Henderson’s private credit capabilities and complements Janus Henderson’s existing highly successful securitized credit franchise and expertise in public asset-backed securitized markets, and further expands our capabilities into the private markets.
On Monday morning, investors woke up to plunging stock markets as the “Yen Carry Trade” blew up. While media headlines suggested the sell-off was due to fears of a recession, slowing employment growth, or fears over Israel and Iran, such is not the case.
The Biden administration is nearly finished divvying up $39 billion in grants under the Chips and Science Act, the landmark bipartisan legislation aimed at revitalizing the domestic semiconductor industry. The bigger test still lies ahead.
Municipal bonds maintained their summer strength and posted a second-consecutive month of positive performance in July.
What does the ratio of unemployment claims tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?
Economist Claudia Sahm developed the “Sahm Rule,” which states that the economy is in recession when the unemployment rate’s three-month average is a half percentage point above its 12-month low.
Global investors are gobbling up bonds that can be turned into stocks, feeling good about the prospects and return potentials of smaller companies.
Cassandras seldom get opportunities to be right about two disasters. Even the original Cassandra scored no notable victories after predicting the fall of Troy. But when a seer who successfully called one catastrophe warns of another coming, you might want to listen.
A fifth of Americans are on the hook for an 833% jump in the cost to ensure the lights stay on. The folks being paid that premium, mostly electricity generators in this instance, face that most welcome of problems: What to do with a windfall.
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses factors behind gold’s impressive performance year to date.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled central bank officials are on course to cut interest rates in September unless inflation progress stalls, citing risks of further labor-market weakening.
Predicting a labor-market downturn was never an easy task. But unique post-pandemic dynamics are making it even harder for economists to determine whether a recent uptick in the unemployment rate is signaling trouble ahead.
Reasonable Treasury debt ratios and more than enough buyers put Treasuries in a much better light than is commonly heard.
Jeff and Ron discuss the state of the economy, inflation, the bond and stock markets, and they outline, in broad terms, their current investments.
Our outlook on the 11 S&P 500 equity sectors.
Increasing the tax efficiency of a retiree’s income portfolio with the NEOS ETF suite may offer several benefits.
Calamos understands time in the market vs. timing the market, but they also understand uncertainty surrounding election.
The bitcoin halving event in April 2024 reduced the block reward for miners, which is expected to increase bitcoin’s price.
Qraft Technologies took AI-driven investment products to the next level with the launch of the LG-QRAFT AI-Powered U.S. Large Cap Core ETF (LQAI) in November of 2023. The firm partnered with LG AI Research, an artificial intelligence (AI) research hub of South Korea's LG Group, to create LQAI.
Financial advisors are increasingly turning to social media platforms to expand their client base. But in today’s rapidly evolving digital landscape, the traditional marketing funnel model – comprising awareness, engagement, and conversion stages – often falls short when applied to these platforms.
Travel insurance is a game-changer. It can keep a physically and emotionally stressful travel experience gone wrong from becoming a financial disaster. But only if you have the coverage you need.
VettaFi discusses the impact of hurricanes on energy companies — upstream, midstream, and downstream.
Writers who want to describe sweeping global change often quote the W.B. Yeats poem, titled "The Second Coming."
A seismic shift is taking place in corporate America as even more companies announce plans to relocate from blue states to more business-friendly jurisdictions like Texas.
Relatively high yields mean investors who have been focusing on short-term securities wouldn't need to sacrifice much yield if they chose MBS to help limit their reinvestment risk.
Economists trimmed their US inflation projections through the first half of 2025 and see a slightly higher unemployment rate, a combination they expect will encourage the Federal Reserve to start lowering interest rates.
A Structured Protection ETF like CPRJ can offer robust tax benefits for investors seeking to move cash or get exposure to small-cap equities.
Diverse stakeholders shared perspectives at AB’s Advancing Retirement Income symposium.
Outlook 2024: A Turning Point, released in December 2023, featured our perspective on how stocks might respond to turning points in inflation and monetary policy.
Since carriers are still digesting and figuring out how they want to cover DA, investment advisors should focus on working with a broker who understands this space. What was true six months ago, can easily be different now and in further down the road.
I thought I knew a lot about travel insurance until recently, when I learned something new. It was an expensive lesson.
Yield-hungry insurance firms are adopting an unconventional strategy: they’re skipping mortgage-backed bonds and buying the underlying whole loans outright.
A second straight month of encouraging U.S. core CPI data supports an initial Federal Reserve rate cut as early as September.
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why bonds are still not a reliable hedge for equities in an environment where inflation remains elevated and volatile.
With the S&P 500 index up almost 18 percent since the beginning of this year, now may be a good time to check how well your retired or near retired clients’ household assets match up with their expected spending liabilities.
Conflicts are everywhere in financial planning. They exist in all fee models, whether they be commissions, assets under management, fixed fee, or hourly. Any time money changes hands there are conflicts of interests.
BlackRock Inc. hauled in $51 billion of client cash to its long-term investment funds in the second quarter, pushing the world’s largest money manager to a record $10.6 trillion of assets.
No matter who wins November’s US presidential election, there’s a growing risk that Americans will be paying higher taxes next year, according to MacKay Shields LLC. That makes muni bonds an attractive shield.
Many people want the passive income that can come with rental properties, but they come with risks and responsibilities.
As many of you are no doubt aware by now, France’s left-wing New Popular Front alliance thwarted Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party in a stunning upset, leaving the country without a clear majority in parliament.
Welcome to our new weekly blog series, “Navigating the Earnings Season.” In this series, I dive into the world of earnings reports from major companies, spanning giants like JP Morgan and Pepsi, as well as niche players in various sectors.
The clubby world of private credit seems to be running out of space for the little guy.
A strategic alignment within the workplace is an opportunity for financial advisors, employers and retirement savers seeking financial planning advice. See Kevin Murphy’s views on emerging trends in workplace savings.
It’s an election year, which means you can expect to hear presidential candidates being asked about their plan for preventing Social Security from going bankrupt.
Every week I post an update on new unemployment claims shortly after the BLS report is made available. Our focus is the four-week moving average of this rather volatile indicator. The financial press generally takes a fairly simplistic view of the latest number, and the market often reacts, for a few minutes or a few hours, to the initial estimate, which is always revised the following week.
Almost every industry could ultimately incorporate AI, leaving a puzzle for investors seeking exposure. Using the internet as an example may provide some breadcrumbs.
The global population has surpassed 8 billion and according to the United Nations, it is projected to reach 9.7 billion in 2050.¹ However, the rate of population growth is slowing and is expected to continue to decline. Seems counterintuitive, no?
Earnings season is just around the corner. It could prove critical to justifying the record rally we’ve seen thus far in 2024.
Those wishing to explore the gap between the nation’s apparent macroeconomic success and its microeconomic malaise would do well to consult Ruchir Sharma’s What Went Wrong with Capitalism.
Jerome Powell will face pressure this week from lawmakers growing impatient for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and others who are unhappy with its latest plan to boost capital requirements for Wall Street lenders.
An extended period of calm means investors must be vigilant and not become complacent. However, it's not necessarily a harbinger of an impending volatility event.
The expert and you are in a car and the expert is driving. After awhile, you notice that the expert is driving the car by looking through the rearview mirror. Concerned you ask him why he’s not looking ahead as he drives.
In this piece, we attempt to answer a number of questions we have gotten from clients about the impacts that rising levels of passive investing may have had on the stock market.
Insurance & Annuities
Back to School: Macro Cliff Notes and a Look Ahead
Recent growth data have been muddled and subject to conflicting interpretations. There have been mixed signals from leading indicators and hard data and divergent readings across major economies.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: August Employment
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of those indicators, nonfarm employment. August saw a 142,000 increase in total nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment fell to 4.2%.
The 2024 US Election and Municipal Bonds: What to Know
Candidate tax policies could affect municipal bonds, but the bigger picture is important too.
Unemployment Claims Down 5K, Better Than Expected
In the week ending August 31st, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 227,000, falling to a two-month low. This represents a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's figure and is better than the 231,000 economists were expecting.
Navigating the Investment Landscape: Insights and Warnings
In this edition, Harold Evensky explores the challenges facing sustainable and active funds, the implications of the new DOL Fiduciary Rule, and the value of long-term performance projections. With candid observations and critical analysis--read on to gain perspective on navigating the complex world of investing, the importance of risk management, and the role of fiduciary advisors in securing your financial future.
The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since Their 2000 Highs
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the August 2024 close.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income Up 0.2% in July
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.32% in July and is up 4.1% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.16% month-over-month and up 1.6% year-over-year.
Consider Packing a Legal Safety Net Before Students Leave for College
College students may want to secure legal documents to ensure their parents can access important information and help them in medical emergencies. Our Bill Cass highlights the key documents students can prepare before leaving for college.
How to Get Full Protection From Your Homeowners Insurance
If your home and/or its contents are destroyed or damaged by a disaster such as a fire or flood, the insurance company will need a complete list of what was lost. Do you have such a list?
Pending Home Sales Unexpectedly Fall 5.5% in July to All-Time Low
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR)unexpectedly fell 5.5% in July to 70.2, its lowest level in history. Pending home sales were expected to inch up 0.2% from the previous month. The index is down 8.5% from one year ago.
How to Use HSAs for Tax-Advantaged Savings, Investments
HSAs are increasingly coming into use. They are a more tax-efficient means of investing, withdrawing money to cover large healthcare expenses, or simply preparing for higher medical costs in one’s later years.
8 Ways DC Plans Are Likely to Change by 2030
Will 2030 DC plans perform better at preparing U.S. workers for retirement?
Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Tops $1 Trillion in Market Value
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. became the first US company outside of the tech sector to surpass $1 trillion in market value.
Let’s Get Real (Rates)!
The most glaring uncertainties today, which contributed to early August seeing some of the largest market moves in the last several years, are the risks associated with the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate.
Talking ETFs with Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas
Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas discusses his top ETF stories, industry “white space”, crypto ETFs, and much more. VettaFi’s Cinthia Murphy offers perspective on the future of ARK Invest and Cathie Wood.
California’s EV Dreams Face an Awkward Reality
California wants some insurance against pump prices. But in proposing that oil companies there hold a minimum stockpile of fuels, the state is also, and less obviously, seeking insurance against the complications of its own energy policies. In seeking to kill off gasoline demand but ensure suppliers stay engaged for years to come, the state is confronting one of the central challenges of the energy transition.
Bringing Wives into the Discussion
To understand the importance of involving both spouses in the discussion, we asked our very own Vicky Frye, Director of FinTech Innovation and Cybersecurity Strategies at WMGNA, for her comments on this topic.
Existing Home Sales Increase in July, Ending 4-Month Skid
Existing home sales rose for the first time since February, ending a four-month skid. According to the data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales were up 1.3% from June, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.95 million units in July. This figure came in just above the expected 3.94 million. Existing home sales are down 2.5% compared to one year ago.
August 2024 Active Management Insights: Positive Outlook for Cyclical and Value-Oriented Stocks
Amid expectations of rate cuts from major central banks, managers are increasing their exposure to more cyclical and value-oriented names, including autos, transportation, and short-cycle industrials.
Transform Risk Into Opportunity
Many financial advisors exhibit a risk-averse attitude, leading to missed opportunities for growth and innovation.
Homes Will Be Affordable Again – Just Not Anytime Soon
The worst of the housing affordability crisis is behind us. But the past two years have shown that housing isn’t a bubble that is likely to pop overnight, nor can prices be forced lower in the short term with government intervention. Rising incomes, falling mortgage rates, more construction and thoughtful policy will slowly chip away at the affordability problem.
The Joy of Missing Out on Short-Term Investing Anxiety
Given the inevitable ups and downs of the financial world, the joy of missing out on the frenzy might be a strong component of long-term financial and emotional wellbeing.
Fed Confronts Up to a Million US Jobs Vanishing in Revision
US job growth in the year through March was likely far less robust than initially estimated, which risks fueling concerns that the Federal Reserve is falling further behind the curve to lower interest rates.
Are Mega-Caps About To Make A Mega-Comeback?
Are the “Mega-Cap” stocks dead? Maybe. But there are four reasons why they could be staged for a comeback. The recent market correction from the July peak certainly got investors’ attention and rattled the more extreme complacency.
The Fine Line Between Content Moderation and Censorship in the Digital Age
Silver is an important component of solar photovoltaic (PV) panels, meaning that for China to reach its ambitious climate targets, it must import massive amounts of the white metal. In June alone, China spent over $228 million on silver, a new monthly record based on Bloomberg data going back to 2009.
Fed to Cut Rates? Secure 17-Year High Annuity Rates Now
While high rates can make borrowing costlier and slow down housing markets, they also open favorable opportunities in financial products like annuities. In other words, annuities are back and stronger than ever before!
A Head Fake, Maybe
Head fake is a trading term, too. Some bit of information convinces investors a market is going to move a certain way. They reposition their portfolios accordingly… just in time to find out the information was wrong. Oof.
CB Leading Economic Index: Continues to Fall...But No Recession Signal
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) decreased in July to its lowest level since April 2020. The index fell 0.6% from the previous month to 100.4, marking its fifth consecutive monthly decline.
Global Bond Traders Are Seeking Protection From Inflation Threat
Just as bond traders grow more assured that inflation is finally under control, a camp of investors is quietly building up protection against the risk of a future spike in prices.
Should Retirement Income Planning Be “Do It Yourself” or “Just Do It for Me”?
Most DC plan participants pursue retirement readiness unassisted, but few grasp what’s required, according to our latest survey.
Latin America's Long-Term Potential
Portfolio Manager Jeremy Sutch, CFA, and Chief Investment Officer Sean Taylor assess the issues besetting the region’s key markets—from domestic challenges to geopolitical headwinds—as well as their structural strengths, and whether prospects may brighten with the onset of a U.S. rate-cutting cycle.
Value of an Advisor: C is for Customized Experience and Family Wealth Planning
Advisors are offering customized holistic wealth management to their clients and their families to help ensure an orderly transition of wealth
NAHB Housing Market Index: Builder Confidence Hits Lowest Level of the Year
Builder confidence fell further in August as a lack of affordability and buyer hesitation continue to slow down the market. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) dropped to 39 this month, its lowest level of the year. The latest reading came was below the forecast of 43.
Disruptive Theme of the Week: Playing Defense
It's a good time to revisit which equity market sectors are defensive themes. Certain products are nondiscretionary we can't live without.
Inside the Consumer Price Index: July 2024
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
Consumer Price Index: Inflation Cools to 2.9% in July
Inflation cooled for a fourth straight month in July, dropping to its lowest level since March 2021. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index fell to 2.9% year-over-year, lower than the expected 3.0% growth. Additionally, core CPI cooled to 3.2% as expected.
Interest-Rate Cuts Rely on Inconvenient Truths About Inflation
The tricky last yards of closing in on — and then maintaining — the hallowed 2% inflation target that all the major central banks adhere to requires a change of tactics. Over the past two years, a mantra of economic data-dependency has been drummed into us, keeping interest rates higher for longer.
Janus Henderson Announces Acquisition of Global Private Credit Manager Victory Park Capital
The acquisition further expands Janus Henderson’s private credit capabilities and complements Janus Henderson’s existing highly successful securitized credit franchise and expertise in public asset-backed securitized markets, and further expands our capabilities into the private markets.
Yen Carry Trade Blows Up Sparking Global Sell-Off
On Monday morning, investors woke up to plunging stock markets as the “Yen Carry Trade” blew up. While media headlines suggested the sell-off was due to fears of a recession, slowing employment growth, or fears over Israel and Iran, such is not the case.
With US Chips Act Money Mostly Divvied Up, the Real Test Begins
The Biden administration is nearly finished divvying up $39 billion in grants under the Chips and Science Act, the landmark bipartisan legislation aimed at revitalizing the domestic semiconductor industry. The bigger test still lies ahead.
Active Management Will Drive Muni Returns in 2024
Municipal bonds maintained their summer strength and posted a second-consecutive month of positive performance in July.
Unemployment Claims as a Recession Indicator: July 2024
What does the ratio of unemployment claims tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?
The Sahm Rule, Employment, And Recession Indicators
Economist Claudia Sahm developed the “Sahm Rule,” which states that the economy is in recession when the unemployment rate’s three-month average is a half percentage point above its 12-month low.
Even Convertible Arbitrageurs Are Abandoning China
Global investors are gobbling up bonds that can be turned into stocks, feeling good about the prospects and return potentials of smaller companies.
A $1 Trillion Time Bomb Is Ticking in the Housing Market
Cassandras seldom get opportunities to be right about two disasters. Even the original Cassandra scored no notable victories after predicting the fall of Troy. But when a seer who successfully called one catastrophe warns of another coming, you might want to listen.
Power Plants’ 833% Windfall May Unleash a Political Firestorm
A fifth of Americans are on the hook for an 833% jump in the cost to ensure the lights stay on. The folks being paid that premium, mostly electricity generators in this instance, face that most welcome of problems: What to do with a windfall.
Gold Shines, Defying Historical Relationships
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses factors behind gold’s impressive performance year to date.
Fed on Course for September Rate Cut as Risks to Job Market Grow
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled central bank officials are on course to cut interest rates in September unless inflation progress stalls, citing risks of further labor-market weakening.
US Job Market’s Pandemic Unwind Puts Recession Signals to Test
Predicting a labor-market downturn was never an easy task. But unique post-pandemic dynamics are making it even harder for economists to determine whether a recent uptick in the unemployment rate is signaling trouble ahead.
U.S. Treasuries and the Fiscal Situation
Reasonable Treasury debt ratios and more than enough buyers put Treasuries in a much better light than is commonly heard.
Muhlenkamp & Company Quarterly Letter – July 2024
Jeff and Ron discuss the state of the economy, inflation, the bond and stock markets, and they outline, in broad terms, their current investments.
Monthly Stock Sector Outlook
Our outlook on the 11 S&P 500 equity sectors.
How to Augment Your Retirement Income for Tax Efficiency
Increasing the tax efficiency of a retiree’s income portfolio with the NEOS ETF suite may offer several benefits.
Markets Don’t Like Uncertainty. Prepare for the 2024 Election With Our Suite of ETFs
Calamos understands time in the market vs. timing the market, but they also understand uncertainty surrounding election.
Bitcoin Halving and Mining Update: Mid-2024 Perspective
The bitcoin halving event in April 2024 reduced the block reward for miners, which is expected to increase bitcoin’s price.
Qraft Teams With LG AI Research to Offer Pioneering AI-Powered ETF
Qraft Technologies took AI-driven investment products to the next level with the launch of the LG-QRAFT AI-Powered U.S. Large Cap Core ETF (LQAI) in November of 2023. The firm partnered with LG AI Research, an artificial intelligence (AI) research hub of South Korea's LG Group, to create LQAI.
Six Reasons to Shift from Traditional Marketing Funnels, and What to Do Instead
Financial advisors are increasingly turning to social media platforms to expand their client base. But in today’s rapidly evolving digital landscape, the traditional marketing funnel model – comprising awareness, engagement, and conversion stages – often falls short when applied to these platforms.
How To Protect Yourself With The Right Travel Insurance Coverage
Travel insurance is a game-changer. It can keep a physically and emotionally stressful travel experience gone wrong from becoming a financial disaster. But only if you have the coverage you need.
How Hurricanes Can Impact the Energy Sector
VettaFi discusses the impact of hurricanes on energy companies — upstream, midstream, and downstream.
Things Fall Apart
Writers who want to describe sweeping global change often quote the W.B. Yeats poem, titled "The Second Coming."
Why The Smart Money Is Heading To Texas
A seismic shift is taking place in corporate America as even more companies announce plans to relocate from blue states to more business-friendly jurisdictions like Texas.
Why to Consider Mortgage-Backed Securities Now
Relatively high yields mean investors who have been focusing on short-term securities wouldn't need to sacrifice much yield if they chose MBS to help limit their reinvestment risk.
Economists Trim US Inflation Forecasts, Paving Way for Fed Cut
Economists trimmed their US inflation projections through the first half of 2025 and see a slightly higher unemployment rate, a combination they expect will encourage the Federal Reserve to start lowering interest rates.
Try a More Tax-Efficient Small-Cap Strategy
A Structured Protection ETF like CPRJ can offer robust tax benefits for investors seeking to move cash or get exposure to small-cap equities.
Charting a Collective Path Forward on Retirement Income
Diverse stakeholders shared perspectives at AB’s Advancing Retirement Income symposium.
Key Themes for Stocks in the Second Half of 2024
Outlook 2024: A Turning Point, released in December 2023, featured our perspective on how stocks might respond to turning points in inflation and monetary policy.
Digital Assets and Investment Management Liability Insurance
Since carriers are still digesting and figuring out how they want to cover DA, investment advisors should focus on working with a broker who understands this space. What was true six months ago, can easily be different now and in further down the road.
Travel Insurance: An Expensive Lesson In Getting the Coverage You Need.
I thought I knew a lot about travel insurance until recently, when I learned something new. It was an expensive lesson.
Insurers Tied to Apollo, KKR Buy Mortgages Outright in New Twist
Yield-hungry insurance firms are adopting an unconventional strategy: they’re skipping mortgage-backed bonds and buying the underlying whole loans outright.
June CPI Marks Progress Along the Last Mile to Inflation Target
A second straight month of encouraging U.S. core CPI data supports an initial Federal Reserve rate cut as early as September.
Are We There Yet? Bonds Still an Unreliable Hedge
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why bonds are still not a reliable hedge for equities in an environment where inflation remains elevated and volatile.
Good Time to Check Your Clients’ Funding Buckets
With the S&P 500 index up almost 18 percent since the beginning of this year, now may be a good time to check how well your retired or near retired clients’ household assets match up with their expected spending liabilities.
Fiduciary Duty – Theory versus Reality
Conflicts are everywhere in financial planning. They exist in all fee models, whether they be commissions, assets under management, fixed fee, or hourly. Any time money changes hands there are conflicts of interests.
BlackRock Hits $10.6 Trillion Asset Record, Cites ETF Boost
BlackRock Inc. hauled in $51 billion of client cash to its long-term investment funds in the second quarter, pushing the world’s largest money manager to a record $10.6 trillion of assets.
Tax Hikes Seen No Matter Who’s President, Making Muni Bonds Attractive
No matter who wins November’s US presidential election, there’s a growing risk that Americans will be paying higher taxes next year, according to MacKay Shields LLC. That makes muni bonds an attractive shield.
What to Consider Before You Invest in Rental Properties
Many people want the passive income that can come with rental properties, but they come with risks and responsibilities.
France’s Uncertain Future And Biden’s Leadership Crisis Shake Investor Confidence
As many of you are no doubt aware by now, France’s left-wing New Popular Front alliance thwarted Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party in a stunning upset, leaving the country without a clear majority in parliament.
Navigating Earnings Season: The Coming Outlooks
Welcome to our new weekly blog series, “Navigating the Earnings Season.” In this series, I dive into the world of earnings reports from major companies, spanning giants like JP Morgan and Pepsi, as well as niche players in various sectors.
As Tide Goes Out on Private Credit, Smaller Firms Look Exposed
The clubby world of private credit seems to be running out of space for the little guy.
Workplace to Wealth: Transforming Retirement Through Meaningful Action
A strategic alignment within the workplace is an opportunity for financial advisors, employers and retirement savers seeking financial planning advice. See Kevin Murphy’s views on emerging trends in workplace savings.
Social Security's Uncertain Future?
It’s an election year, which means you can expect to hear presidential candidates being asked about their plan for preventing Social Security from going bankrupt.
Unemployment Claims as a Recession Indicator: June 2024
Every week I post an update on new unemployment claims shortly after the BLS report is made available. Our focus is the four-week moving average of this rather volatile indicator. The financial press generally takes a fairly simplistic view of the latest number, and the market often reacts, for a few minutes or a few hours, to the initial estimate, which is always revised the following week.
Beyond Nvidia: How the AI Picture Could Evolve for Investors
Almost every industry could ultimately incorporate AI, leaving a puzzle for investors seeking exposure. Using the internet as an example may provide some breadcrumbs.
Beyond Demographics
The global population has surpassed 8 billion and according to the United Nations, it is projected to reach 9.7 billion in 2050.¹ However, the rate of population growth is slowing and is expected to continue to decline. Seems counterintuitive, no?
Q2 Earnings Season: Financials First Up to Bat
Earnings season is just around the corner. It could prove critical to justifying the record rally we’ve seen thus far in 2024.
First World Problems
Those wishing to explore the gap between the nation’s apparent macroeconomic success and its microeconomic malaise would do well to consult Ruchir Sharma’s What Went Wrong with Capitalism.
Powell to Face Fed Critics in Congress on High Rates, Bank Rules
Jerome Powell will face pressure this week from lawmakers growing impatient for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and others who are unhappy with its latest plan to boost capital requirements for Wall Street lenders.
The Unnerving Calm of Equity Markets
An extended period of calm means investors must be vigilant and not become complacent. However, it's not necessarily a harbinger of an impending volatility event.
Monthly Global Economic Report
The expert and you are in a car and the expert is driving. After awhile, you notice that the expert is driving the car by looking through the rearview mirror. Concerned you ask him why he’s not looking ahead as he drives.
FAQ: Passive Investing
In this piece, we attempt to answer a number of questions we have gotten from clients about the impacts that rising levels of passive investing may have had on the stock market.