What does the ratio of unemployment claims tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?
In the week ending December 7th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 242,000. This represents an increase of 17,000 from the previous week's figure and is worse than forecasts for 221,000.
Our outlook on the 11 S&P 500 equity sectors.
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
Inflation rose slightly in November. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index rose to 2.75% year-over-year, right in line with economist expectations. Additionally, core CPI came in at 3.3% as expected.
The surprise nomination of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to head healthcare policy in the U.S. caused substantial volatility in November. But despite heightened uncertainty, the sector’s long-term outlook appears intact, say Portfolio Managers Andy Acker and Dan Lyons – giving investors a potential opportunity to invest at attractive valuations.
Waiting until 67 or 70 may not feel like the best choice in the moment. Yet the extra income could mean more freedom from financial stress and more ability to enjoy your later years with peace of mind.
A resilient US economy and deepening geopolitical tensions around the world are making asset managers rethink their expectations for a weaker dollar.
Whether you want to buy or rent, finding an affordable, comfortable home can be extremely difficult, if not impossible.
Our Cash Indicator methodology acts as a plan in case of an emergency. This is analogous to the multiple safety systems in a modern automobile, which includes an airbag. Importantly, each of these systems work together to potentially help smooth the ride.
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of those indicators, nonfarm employment. November saw a 227,000 increase in total nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rose to 4.2%.
Historical trends are being permanently broken in real time as mega forces, like the rise of artificial intelligence (AI), transform economies.
With year-end looming, consider taking action now to determine if annual gifts make sense. Our Bill Cass shares useful strategies to consider for estate planning.
Quite a few observers have described the dramatic fall of the Barnier government in France not just as a political crisis but also an economic and financial crisis.
While the economy helped President Trump win a second term, it also created expectations that could prove difficult to meet.
Assets in money market funds reached an all-time high of $7 trillion this past month. Now that rates are moving lower, money market yields may not be as attractive to many investors and assets may gradually leave money funds.
In this article, Beverly Flaxington gives advice on how to navigate organizing events for staff and clients.
By understanding annuities, debunking myths, and staying on top of tax implications, you can offer your clients the financial stability they crave. Regular reviews, proactive communication, and continuous education are the keys to success.
The $1.8 trillion federal budget deficit in the fiscal year that ended in September was the third biggest ever in dollar terms, trailing only the pandemic deficits of the 2020 and 2021 fiscal years. As a share of gross domestic product, a better gauge for historical comparisons, it was, at 6.4%, the biggest ever outside of a large war or global crisis.
The trend is your friend. Or, in Larry Fink’s case, your primary acquisition tickbox.
The decision of whether to generate lifetime income with an annuity should be made on its own merits, e.g., as part of a holistic, goals-based investing process. In those cases where annuitized income is deemed beneficial, though, this article has illustrated why the purchase of a qualified annuity from IRA assets may be more attractive than you might expect.
BlackRock Inc. agreed to buy HPS Investment Partners in an all-stock deal valued at roughly $12 billion, a purchase that will propel the world’s largest asset manager into the highest ranks of private credit.
Expectations for solid corporate earnings drove our U.S. and Japanese equity overweights this year. They have delivered, showing that fundamentals are key. Earnings strength could matter more to equity investors in 2025 over valuations.
Trump's election win spurred market optimism, driving rallies in equities, crypto, and cyclical sector.
You're interested in investing in municipal bonds, but which type—general obligation or revenue—is best for you? We break it down.
We are prone to animal analogies when describing disorderly situations: like herding cats, like a barrel full of monkeys, like a dog’s breakfast.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.6% in October and is up 4.7% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.3% month-over-month and up 2.3% year-over-year.
Credit investors squeezed by the tightest spreads in almost 20 years are opting for bare-bones strategies, creating a boom for Europe’s fixed-maturity funds.
On whole, EM growth has been resilient, while inflation has fallen closer to normal levels.
For most of the last fifty years, fixed income investing has been characterized by owning some combination of Municipals, Corporates, Treasuries and Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities.
Don’t let your clients lose sight of their goals in financial complexity. Give them the clarity and simplicity they crave with a one-page plan that’s tailored to their unique needs.
Some retirees say they could have planned better for lifetime income—helpful insight for current participants.
Take a moment to understand a few recent breakthroughs in medicine and explore a few ways to get actionable exposure to them with ETFs.
It is important for savers to understand guaranteed and non-guaranteed options when looking at retirement solutions offered within a 401(k) plan. Our Mike Dullaghan shares the highlights and talks about the need for personalized strategies.
The world’s biggest private credit managers are turning to an obscure investment product to help raise billions from deep-pocketed insurance companies, testing the limits of industry safeguards meant to curb risk.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) decreased in October to its lowest level since March 2016. The index fell 0.4% from the previous month to 99.5, marking its eighth consecutive monthly decline.
Top financial professionals have a clear understanding of their unique strengths and are able to convey them to clients. To set yourself up for success, distinguish yourself in the market through specialized expertise and tailored client services.
Don’t wait for financial symptoms to show up. Annual financial checkups can help maintain your current financial fitness and support your long-term financial wellbeing.
Municipal bonds broke their winning streak in October, posting negative total returns alongside broader fixed income assets.
Following a tense presidential election, equity markets roared to record highs – the S&P 500 put on its best weekly showing in over a year.
President-elect Donald Trump pledged last month to eliminate “the Double Taxation of overseas Americans.” Never mind the clumsy wording — taxes on US citizens working abroad aren’t excessive so much as excessively complicated — this is one campaign promise that may actually be fulfilled, given the Republican control of both houses of Congress. That would be a good thing not only for those Americans but also for America.
Warren Buffett created Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s Class B shares almost 30 years ago to stymie money managers who sought to split the high-priced conglomerate’s stock.
For DC plan sponsors, developing a short list of income solutions is a good first step.
The US Federal Reserve and its chair, Jerome Powell, are rightly choosing not to act on any assumptions about what Donald Trump might do as president. That said, if he follows through on his more extreme campaign promises, they’ll struggle to contain the economic consequences — a problem that equity investors ignore at their peril.
Let's keep our client meetings focused and manageable. By doing so, we not only respect their time and attention but also increase the likelihood of them taking the necessary steps to achieve their financial goals.
Despite being the generations with the most knowledge, experience and potential resources, many are still unsure about their financial future.
Retirement plan savers looking to mitigate the risk of higher taxes in the future may benefit from making after-tax contributions to employer plans, which may be transferred to Roth accounts. Our Bill Cass details a “mega backdoor” Roth strategy.
If you’re unfamiliar with synthetic risk transfers, there’s a chance you’ll hear all about them when the next financial crisis hits. They’re the latest way for big banks to game rules designed to safeguard the system, and they’re growing fast. So far, regulators seem all but oblivious.
This is not a typical business cycle. We see structural forces holding inflation higher long term, keeping the Fed from cutting as much as markets expect.
Credit risk fell in reaction to Donald Trump’s US presidential win, even though his presidency may be marred by tariffs and possible trade wars.
As you know, economists are normally criticized and accused of being ‘two-handed.’ This is because when we talk, we typically say, “on the one hand, and on the other hand.” Many argue that we are hedging our bets and lack the spine to take a position. While we disagree with that simplistic view of our job, we can understand why we are accused of being ‘two-handed.’
Next-generation investors are looking for more than just traditional portfolio managements, and advisors should look to meet those expectations.
As we think about investing around a historic election, establishing what we know, what we need to know, and what we can count on is a useful foundation for navigating the uncertainty.
Bill Bernstein digs into a book that follows the complicated history of Elon Musk's chaotic acquisition of Twitter and its subsequent transformation into X.
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why he believes U.S. exceptionalism is a trend that is likely to continue.
With Direct Indexing, you can help your clients prepare for life-changing transactions and minimize capital gains taxes by selectively harvesting losses to offset those gains, and implementing tax-efficient trading strategies.
The high cost of housing is prompting many individuals to consider downsizing, but advisors recommend gradually reining in spending habits.
The most common questions we’ve been asked as the election approaches are generally about the Federal debt and deficits. Many investors worry about a looming “day of reckoning” for US debt. They fear the US’s fiscal imprudence will eventually force a sudden and dramatic repricing of US debt. In this insight, we explore the modern history of US debt to GDP across several Presidential administrations and outline why investors should not be worried about a financial apocalyptic abyss.
Integrating the physical toll of climate change helps investors spot key risks—and opportunities.
To understand the wave of bank partnerships with private-credit fund managers during the past year or so, think back to the boom in mortgage lending through securitization in the early 2000s. The same forces are at work: a huge demand for finance, limited and costly bank capital and investment bankers’ ingenuity and desire to generate business.
I’ve identified long-term care as the greatest unsolved challenge in the field of goals-based retirement investing. This doesn’t make me Sherlock Holmes. Anyone who has requested a quote for LTCI knows we’ve got a problem.
State and municipal budgets are adjusting to life after pandemic interventions.
Investment grade bonds have long been synonymous with a “core” fixed income allocation, but we believe a flexible strategy also belongs in most bond portfolios, as managers can adjust their exposure based on market conditions.
When done effectively, your outsourced team of professionals can help improve efficiencies, increase productivity, and scale profitably – all while giving you the freedom to focus on what you’re most passionate about.
Annuity owners value the financial security that guaranteed lifetime income provides.
Economists nudged up quarterly US economic growth projections through early next year on more sanguine views of consumer demand and maintained views that limited inflation will keep the Federal Reserve on a path toward lower borrowing costs.
The Federal Reserve's dual mandate is to maintain stable inflation and maximize employment. The Fed manages liquidity through its policy tools, but it's crucial to remember that the Fed is just one source of liquidity among several. In this quick insight, Dan Suzuki examines why tight Fed policy doesn't always equate to tight liquidity and looks into the historical data on Fed cuts.
Many investors today use EM debt for the wrong reasons, manage it imprudently, or overlook the best parts.
The start of a rate-cutting cycle has opened up new questions ― and possibilities ― for stock investors. Tony DeSpirito, Global CIO of BlackRock Fundamental Equities, outlines key areas to watch as the Fed takes action to “recalibrate” interest rates.
US sales of previously owned homes declined to an almost 14-year low in September as prospective buyers waited for a further decline in mortgage rates and more attractive asking prices.
Recent events, particularly the devastation caused by Hurricanes Helene and Milton in 2024, provide a clear example of why destruction does not create long-term economic prosperity. Despite the short-term boost in economic activity from rebuilding efforts, the broader economic implications are far more detrimental.
Energy policy decisions today will have long-lasting implications.
Agency bonds issued by government-sponsored enterprises can offer slightly higher yields than U.S. Treasury bonds, without requiring bondholders to take on too much additional risk.
Risk. It’s a tiny word for a critical investment concept, one that necessarily merits ample discussion by advisors with their clients. Unfortunately, evidence suggests this may not be happening evenly across the advisory industry.
Rather than go back and reminisce about the articles I’m most proud of, I think a better exercise is to look at those I got wrong and reflect on what might be learned.
While greed is necessary to build wealth, excessive greed often has far more terrible consequences when investing.
Housing prices matter to everyone, even if you aren’t trying to buy, sell, or rent a home. They are the key to inflation, which drives Fed policy and interest rates, which drive financial markets. We’re all part of this, like it or not. Today we’ll review what is happening.
Surviving a disaster involves securing safety, accessing help from agencies, and documenting damages for insurance claims. Our Bill Cass highlights numerous resources for financial relief, including accessing emergency funds, insurance and tax considerations.
The cost of higher education has skyrocketed over the last few decades, and shows no signs of slowing. That’s why it’s more important than ever that parents start saving as early as possible for their children’s future.
Opening a 529 college savings account can be a smart move if you’d like to save for college on a tax-advantaged basis. One thing to consider when opening a 529 plan is whether it should be a custodial or individual account. While both allow you to save for college costs and enjoy some tax breaks, they differ in terms of who has control of the account and the assets in it.
A 529 college savings plan, also known as a qualified tuition plan (QTP), is a popular choice among parents and families looking to meet their children’s future educational expenses. Two of the 529 plan’s helpful features are tax-deferred growth of your contributions and later, tax-free withdrawals for eligible expenses.
Municipal bonds bucked the seasonal trend and posted strong performance in September.
One of most dangerous habits of a speculative crowd is the tendency to use unconditional averages and unconditional probabilities regardless of how extreme market conditions have become. This is like stepping into a house with two rooms, one with the temperature at 0 degrees and one at 140 degrees, and expecting a temperature of 70 either way.
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses gold may continue to serve as a store of value in the current environment.
This past week saw a notable surge in the stock market, pushing it to all-time highs, despite mixed economic data. Inflation figures, jobless claims, and sentiment reports have been uneven, but markets remain resilient, with the VIX hovering around 20—a sign that fear persists among investors.
By bringing wealth advisors and attorneys together with medical professionals, clients can receive more comprehensive care. Family offices and their clients can mitigate risks through a “triangle of support” formed by financial, legal, and medical advisors.
The need for old age support is on the rise, as is its cost.
The looming wealth transfer from Baby Boomers and the Silent Generation to younger generations is set to reshape the financial landscape in unprecedented ways. Estimated at $84 trillion, this transition is a huge financial event.
Take a snapshot of markets right now, and it’s a picture of health. Stocks are at records, corporate bonds show no signs of worry and commodities remain buoyant on global economic optimism.
Insurance & Annuities
Unemployment Claims as a Recession Indicator: November 2024
What does the ratio of unemployment claims tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?
Unemployment Claims Up 17K, Much Worse Than Expected
In the week ending December 7th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 242,000. This represents an increase of 17,000 from the previous week's figure and is worse than forecasts for 221,000.
Sector Views: Monthly Stock Sector Outlook
Our outlook on the 11 S&P 500 equity sectors.
Inside the Consumer Price Index: November 2024
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
Consumer Price Index: Inflation Edges Up to 2.75% in November
Inflation rose slightly in November. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index rose to 2.75% year-over-year, right in line with economist expectations. Additionally, core CPI came in at 3.3% as expected.
Despite Political Headwinds, Healthcare Stocks Stay Anchored to Innovation
The surprise nomination of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to head healthcare policy in the U.S. caused substantial volatility in November. But despite heightened uncertainty, the sector’s long-term outlook appears intact, say Portfolio Managers Andy Acker and Dan Lyons – giving investors a potential opportunity to invest at attractive valuations.
The $182,000 Social Security Mistake That Could Limit Your Retirement
Waiting until 67 or 70 may not feel like the best choice in the moment. Yet the extra income could mean more freedom from financial stress and more ability to enjoy your later years with peace of mind.
Dollar Optimism Is Spreading From Hedge Funds to Asset Managers
A resilient US economy and deepening geopolitical tensions around the world are making asset managers rethink their expectations for a weaker dollar.
Homes for Christmas
Whether you want to buy or rent, finding an affordable, comfortable home can be extremely difficult, if not impossible.
The December 2024 Dashboard: Our Three Layers of Risk Management
Our Cash Indicator methodology acts as a plan in case of an emergency. This is analogous to the multiple safety systems in a modern automobile, which includes an airbag. Importantly, each of these systems work together to potentially help smooth the ride.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: November Employment
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of those indicators, nonfarm employment. November saw a 227,000 increase in total nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rose to 4.2%.
2025 Investment Outlook: Building the Transformation
Historical trends are being permanently broken in real time as mega forces, like the rise of artificial intelligence (AI), transform economies.
Year-End Estate Planning: Strategies for Maximizing Tax Benefits and Legacy Planning
With year-end looming, consider taking action now to determine if annual gifts make sense. Our Bill Cass shares useful strategies to consider for estate planning.
This Is Not France’s "Truss" Moment
Quite a few observers have described the dramatic fall of the Barnier government in France not just as a political crisis but also an economic and financial crisis.
Monthly Global Economic Report
While the economy helped President Trump win a second term, it also created expectations that could prove difficult to meet.
Rethinking Cash
Assets in money market funds reached an all-time high of $7 trillion this past month. Now that rates are moving lower, money market yields may not be as attractive to many investors and assets may gradually leave money funds.
How to Navigate Organizing Events for Staff & Clients
In this article, Beverly Flaxington gives advice on how to navigate organizing events for staff and clients.
Annuities 101: A Financial Advisor's Guide to Understanding and Utilizing Annuities
By understanding annuities, debunking myths, and staying on top of tax implications, you can offer your clients the financial stability they crave. Regular reviews, proactive communication, and continuous education are the keys to success.
Health-Care Spending Is Sinking the Federal Budget
The $1.8 trillion federal budget deficit in the fiscal year that ended in September was the third biggest ever in dollar terms, trailing only the pandemic deficits of the 2020 and 2021 fiscal years. As a share of gross domestic product, a better gauge for historical comparisons, it was, at 6.4%, the biggest ever outside of a large war or global crisis.
BlackRock Pays $12 Billion to Catch Up in Private Credit
The trend is your friend. Or, in Larry Fink’s case, your primary acquisition tickbox.
Annuities in an IRA? A Surprising RMD Advantage for FIAs or VAs
The decision of whether to generate lifetime income with an annuity should be made on its own merits, e.g., as part of a holistic, goals-based investing process. In those cases where annuitized income is deemed beneficial, though, this article has illustrated why the purchase of a qualified annuity from IRA assets may be more attractive than you might expect.
BlackRock Buys Credit Firm HPS in $12 Billion All-Stock Deal
BlackRock Inc. agreed to buy HPS Investment Partners in an all-stock deal valued at roughly $12 billion, a purchase that will propel the world’s largest asset manager into the highest ranks of private credit.
Uneven Earnings Call for Granularity
Expectations for solid corporate earnings drove our U.S. and Japanese equity overweights this year. They have delivered, showing that fundamentals are key. Earnings strength could matter more to equity investors in 2025 over valuations.
BUZZ Investing: Election Sparks 'Trump Trade' Rally
Trump's election win spurred market optimism, driving rallies in equities, crypto, and cyclical sector.
Choosing Municipal Bonds: GO or Revenue?
You're interested in investing in municipal bonds, but which type—general obligation or revenue—is best for you? We break it down.
Chaotic Commitments at COP29
We are prone to animal analogies when describing disorderly situations: like herding cats, like a barrel full of monkeys, like a dog’s breakfast.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income Up 0.6% in October
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.6% in October and is up 4.7% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.3% month-over-month and up 2.3% year-over-year.
In Hot Credit Market, Simple Fixed-Maturity Funds Are Booming
Credit investors squeezed by the tightest spreads in almost 20 years are opting for bare-bones strategies, creating a boom for Europe’s fixed-maturity funds.
Emerging Market Debt Outlook for 2025
On whole, EM growth has been resilient, while inflation has fallen closer to normal levels.
CLO Default Rates Are Significantly Lower Than Corporate Default Rates
For most of the last fifty years, fixed income investing has been characterized by owning some combination of Municipals, Corporates, Treasuries and Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities.
79 Questions to Ask When Building a One-Page Plan
Don’t let your clients lose sight of their goals in financial complexity. Give them the clarity and simplicity they crave with a one-page plan that’s tailored to their unique needs.
Lifetime-Income Lessons from Retirees Can Move the Needle for DC Plans
Some retirees say they could have planned better for lifetime income—helpful insight for current participants.
Disruptive Theme of the Week: Breakthroughs in Medicine
Take a moment to understand a few recent breakthroughs in medicine and explore a few ways to get actionable exposure to them with ETFs.
What Retirement Plan Advisors Need to Know About In-Plan Retirement Income Solutions
It is important for savers to understand guaranteed and non-guaranteed options when looking at retirement solutions offered within a 401(k) plan. Our Mike Dullaghan shares the highlights and talks about the need for personalized strategies.
Backdoor Private Credit Funds Are Luring Billions From Insurers
The world’s biggest private credit managers are turning to an obscure investment product to help raise billions from deep-pocketed insurance companies, testing the limits of industry safeguards meant to curb risk.
CB Leading Economic Index: Continues to Fall in October
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) decreased in October to its lowest level since March 2016. The index fell 0.4% from the previous month to 99.5, marking its eighth consecutive monthly decline.
What Top Financial Professionals Are Doing to Succeed
Top financial professionals have a clear understanding of their unique strengths and are able to convey them to clients. To set yourself up for success, distinguish yourself in the market through specialized expertise and tailored client services.
The Value of an Annual Financial Checkup
Don’t wait for financial symptoms to show up. Annual financial checkups can help maintain your current financial fitness and support your long-term financial wellbeing.
Active Management Will Drive Muni Returns in 2024
Municipal bonds broke their winning streak in October, posting negative total returns alongside broader fixed income assets.
The Post-Election Flood Into ETFs
Following a tense presidential election, equity markets roared to record highs – the S&P 500 put on its best weekly showing in over a year.
Trump Is Right: Expat Taxes Are Too Complicated
President-elect Donald Trump pledged last month to eliminate “the Double Taxation of overseas Americans.” Never mind the clumsy wording — taxes on US citizens working abroad aren’t excessive so much as excessively complicated — this is one campaign promise that may actually be fulfilled, given the Republican control of both houses of Congress. That would be a good thing not only for those Americans but also for America.
Buffett’s Berkshire Is Being Packaged Into a Leveraged ETF
Warren Buffett created Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s Class B shares almost 30 years ago to stymie money managers who sought to split the high-priced conglomerate’s stock.
Four Questions to Narrow the Field of Retirement Income Solutions
For DC plan sponsors, developing a short list of income solutions is a good first step.
Powell Doesn’t Fear Trump. He Also Can’t Contain Him
The US Federal Reserve and its chair, Jerome Powell, are rightly choosing not to act on any assumptions about what Donald Trump might do as president. That said, if he follows through on his more extreme campaign promises, they’ll struggle to contain the economic consequences — a problem that equity investors ignore at their peril.
Mastering Client Meetings: How to Avoid Overwhelm and Deliver Massive Value
Let's keep our client meetings focused and manageable. By doing so, we not only respect their time and attention but also increase the likelihood of them taking the necessary steps to achieve their financial goals.
Are Boomers and Gen Xers Financially Ready for Retirement?
Despite being the generations with the most knowledge, experience and potential resources, many are still unsure about their financial future.
Turning After-Tax Plan Contributions Into Tax-Free Retirement Income
Retirement plan savers looking to mitigate the risk of higher taxes in the future may benefit from making after-tax contributions to employer plans, which may be transferred to Roth accounts. Our Bill Cass details a “mega backdoor” Roth strategy.
Banks’ New Trick Could Mean Trouble for Everyone
If you’re unfamiliar with synthetic risk transfers, there’s a chance you’ll hear all about them when the next financial crisis hits. They’re the latest way for big banks to game rules designed to safeguard the system, and they’re growing fast. So far, regulators seem all but oblivious.
Structural Forces Playing Out Now
This is not a typical business cycle. We see structural forces holding inflation higher long term, keeping the Fed from cutting as much as markets expect.
Credit Risk Drops in a Knee-Jerk Reaction to Trump’s Win
Credit risk fell in reaction to Donald Trump’s US presidential win, even though his presidency may be marred by tariffs and possible trade wars.
Oh, No, a Three-Handed Economist
As you know, economists are normally criticized and accused of being ‘two-handed.’ This is because when we talk, we typically say, “on the one hand, and on the other hand.” Many argue that we are hedging our bets and lack the spine to take a position. While we disagree with that simplistic view of our job, we can understand why we are accused of being ‘two-handed.’
Advisors Should Adapt to Evolving Client Expectations
Next-generation investors are looking for more than just traditional portfolio managements, and advisors should look to meet those expectations.
Investing Around the Election and the Government Debt Problem
As we think about investing around a historic election, establishing what we know, what we need to know, and what we can count on is a useful foundation for navigating the uncertainty.
What Makes Elon Tweet
Bill Bernstein digs into a book that follows the complicated history of Elon Musk's chaotic acquisition of Twitter and its subsequent transformation into X.
Reasons to Remain Overweight U.S. Stocks
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why he believes U.S. exceptionalism is a trend that is likely to continue.
How Direct Indexing Can Help Offset Taxes on a Future Financial Windfall
With Direct Indexing, you can help your clients prepare for life-changing transactions and minimize capital gains taxes by selectively harvesting losses to offset those gains, and implementing tax-efficient trading strategies.
A Guide to Downsizing With Less Pain, More Gains
The high cost of housing is prompting many individuals to consider downsizing, but advisors recommend gradually reining in spending habits.
Fade the Election – Part 2: Debt & Deficits
The most common questions we’ve been asked as the election approaches are generally about the Federal debt and deficits. Many investors worry about a looming “day of reckoning” for US debt. They fear the US’s fiscal imprudence will eventually force a sudden and dramatic repricing of US debt. In this insight, we explore the modern history of US debt to GDP across several Presidential administrations and outline why investors should not be worried about a financial apocalyptic abyss.
As Climate Change Gets Hyperphysical, Investors Should Too
Integrating the physical toll of climate change helps investors spot key risks—and opportunities.
Private Credit’s Banking Romance May Turn Sour
To understand the wave of bank partnerships with private-credit fund managers during the past year or so, think back to the boom in mortgage lending through securitization in the early 2000s. The same forces are at work: a huge demand for finance, limited and costly bank capital and investment bankers’ ingenuity and desire to generate business.
My Dream Long-Term Care Insurance
I’ve identified long-term care as the greatest unsolved challenge in the field of goals-based retirement investing. This doesn’t make me Sherlock Holmes. Anyone who has requested a quote for LTCI knows we’ve got a problem.
Local Finances, Challenging Choices
State and municipal budgets are adjusting to life after pandemic interventions.
The Benefits of a Flexible Core
Investment grade bonds have long been synonymous with a “core” fixed income allocation, but we believe a flexible strategy also belongs in most bond portfolios, as managers can adjust their exposure based on market conditions.
Banks’ New Trick Could Mean Trouble for Everyone
If you’re unfamiliar with synthetic risk transfers, there’s a chance you’ll hear all about them when the next financial crisis hits. They’re the latest way for big banks to game rules designed to safeguard the system, and they’re growing fast. So far, regulators seem all but oblivious.
Who Belongs on Your Advisory Firm’s Dream Team?
When done effectively, your outsourced team of professionals can help improve efficiencies, increase productivity, and scale profitably – all while giving you the freedom to focus on what you’re most passionate about.
Annuity Owners Value the Benefits of Lifetime Income
Annuity owners value the financial security that guaranteed lifetime income provides.
Economists Boost US Growth, Spending Forecasts Into Early 2025
Economists nudged up quarterly US economic growth projections through early next year on more sanguine views of consumer demand and maintained views that limited inflation will keep the Federal Reserve on a path toward lower borrowing costs.
Navigating the Tight Policy, Loose Liquidity Paradox
The Federal Reserve's dual mandate is to maintain stable inflation and maximize employment. The Fed manages liquidity through its policy tools, but it's crucial to remember that the Fed is just one source of liquidity among several. In this quick insight, Dan Suzuki examines why tight Fed policy doesn't always equate to tight liquidity and looks into the historical data on Fed cuts.
Emerging Markets: The Biggest, Fastest Growing, and Arguably Least Understood Pool of Credit in the World
Many investors today use EM debt for the wrong reasons, manage it imprudently, or overlook the best parts.
As Interest Rates Fall, New Stock Opportunities Arise
The start of a rate-cutting cycle has opened up new questions ― and possibilities ― for stock investors. Tony DeSpirito, Global CIO of BlackRock Fundamental Equities, outlines key areas to watch as the Fed takes action to “recalibrate” interest rates.
US Previously Owned Home Sales Fall to an Almost 14-Year Low
US sales of previously owned homes declined to an almost 14-year low in September as prospective buyers waited for a further decline in mortgage rates and more attractive asking prices.
Bastiat And The “Broken Window”
Recent events, particularly the devastation caused by Hurricanes Helene and Milton in 2024, provide a clear example of why destruction does not create long-term economic prosperity. Despite the short-term boost in economic activity from rebuilding efforts, the broader economic implications are far more detrimental.
Tough Choices for Energy Policy
Energy policy decisions today will have long-lasting implications.
U.S. Agency Bonds: What You Should Know
Agency bonds issued by government-sponsored enterprises can offer slightly higher yields than U.S. Treasury bonds, without requiring bondholders to take on too much additional risk.
Risk: The Elephant in the Advisor/Client Relationship
Risk. It’s a tiny word for a critical investment concept, one that necessarily merits ample discussion by advisors with their clients. Unfortunately, evidence suggests this may not be happening evenly across the advisory industry.
The Worst of Allan Roth
Rather than go back and reminisce about the articles I’m most proud of, I think a better exercise is to look at those I got wrong and reflect on what might be learned.
Greed And How To Lose 100% Of Your Money
While greed is necessary to build wealth, excessive greed often has far more terrible consequences when investing.
Frozen Homes
Housing prices matter to everyone, even if you aren’t trying to buy, sell, or rent a home. They are the key to inflation, which drives Fed policy and interest rates, which drive financial markets. We’re all part of this, like it or not. Today we’ll review what is happening.
Surviving Disaster: Key Considerations for Moving Ahead
Surviving a disaster involves securing safety, accessing help from agencies, and documenting damages for insurance claims. Our Bill Cass highlights numerous resources for financial relief, including accessing emergency funds, insurance and tax considerations.
How an UTMA Compares to a 529 Plan
The cost of higher education has skyrocketed over the last few decades, and shows no signs of slowing. That’s why it’s more important than ever that parents start saving as early as possible for their children’s future.
529 Plans: Custodial Versus Individual Accounts
Opening a 529 college savings account can be a smart move if you’d like to save for college on a tax-advantaged basis. One thing to consider when opening a 529 plan is whether it should be a custodial or individual account. While both allow you to save for college costs and enjoy some tax breaks, they differ in terms of who has control of the account and the assets in it.
529 Plan Withdrawal Rules
A 529 college savings plan, also known as a qualified tuition plan (QTP), is a popular choice among parents and families looking to meet their children’s future educational expenses. Two of the 529 plan’s helpful features are tax-deferred growth of your contributions and later, tax-free withdrawals for eligible expenses.
Active Management Will Drive Muni Returns in 2024
Municipal bonds bucked the seasonal trend and posted strong performance in September.
Subsets and Sensibility
One of most dangerous habits of a speculative crowd is the tendency to use unconditional averages and unconditional probabilities regardless of how extreme market conditions have become. This is like stepping into a house with two rooms, one with the temperature at 0 degrees and one at 140 degrees, and expecting a temperature of 70 either way.
Gold’s Stars Continue to Align
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses gold may continue to serve as a store of value in the current environment.
Stock Surge Defies Mixed Economic Data
This past week saw a notable surge in the stock market, pushing it to all-time highs, despite mixed economic data. Inflation figures, jobless claims, and sentiment reports have been uneven, but markets remain resilient, with the VIX hovering around 20—a sign that fear persists among investors.
Would You Expect Your Wealth Advisor to Talk With Your Doctor?
By bringing wealth advisors and attorneys together with medical professionals, clients can receive more comprehensive care. Family offices and their clients can mitigate risks through a “triangle of support” formed by financial, legal, and medical advisors.
Can America Age Gracefully?
The need for old age support is on the rise, as is its cost.
Navigating the $84 Trillion Wealth Transfer: Shaping the Future of Financial Planning
The looming wealth transfer from Baby Boomers and the Silent Generation to younger generations is set to reshape the financial landscape in unprecedented ways. Estimated at $84 trillion, this transition is a huge financial event.
Hedged-Up Wall Street Traders Still Haunted by August Meltdown
Take a snapshot of markets right now, and it’s a picture of health. Stocks are at records, corporate bonds show no signs of worry and commodities remain buoyant on global economic optimism.