Emerging Markets

As 2025 progresses, investors and policymakers are navigating a highly complex economic landscape shaped by three powerful and interrelated forces: evolving trade policy, a cautious U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), and growing concerns over U.S. fiscal discipline.

We continue to believe we are seeing a rare opportunity in EM local debt, and our conviction has been strengthened by the Trump administration’s trade and economic policies, which suggest continued dollar weakness and relative strength for EM local currencies.

It is easy to invest when markets are rallying, but it can be tough for investors to stay in their seats when markets inevitably decline again.

As the second quarter earnings season kicks into gear, Wall Street analysts are forecasting modest earnings growth of 4.8% for companies in the S&P 500.

Every year around this time, we update our Periodic Table of Commodities Returns to reflect the performance of raw materials in the first six months. I’m biased, but few tools do a better job of providing a clear, interactive picture of the commodities landscape than ours.

Geopolitical flare-ups and a “wait-and-see” Federal Reserve stance have created plenty of noise, but markets continue to defy the headlines with a balanced global allocation and improving sentiment indicators.

The resilient job market has supported stock gains, but Washington policy has been a primary market driver so far this year.

There’s a connection between our willingness to let the debt problem fester and investors throwing their money into a wildly overvalued stock market. In both cases, we’ve grown way too comfortable with uncertainty.

ClearBridge Investments believes tariffs remain the key risk to corporate profits in the second half of the year and is less concerned about geopolitical events or the outlook for fiscal and monetary policy.

A full three months since President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcements sparked panic in financial markets, macro developments have been benign. The passage of the Big Beautiful Bill has brought clarity on the fiscal outlook, but uncertainty on trade negotiations remains. Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai explains what this means for investors going forward.

One of the more storied headlines this year has been President Trump’s disappointment with the Fed for not cutting rates. We should all know by now that the President cannot fire a Fed Chair simply because he/she is not lowering interest rates to their liking.

Franklin Mutual Series shares its mid-year outlook, focusing on corporate fundamentals as a catalyst to unlock value in the midst of ongoing market volatility.

Liberation Day seems like a lifetime ago. But the 90-day pause is almost over, and—thus far—there are few deals that have been consummated.

We expect tariff policy to remain a key part of the narrative pushed by the administration.

In this month’s issue, Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity explains how markets in many regions are weathering US policy uncertainty and offers an upbeat assessment of Vietnam after a recent research visit.

In the weeks leading up to last month’s Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran, oil prices climbed – not due to actual supply disruptions, but in response to a geopolitical risk premium.

Our strategy work and quantitative insights suggest the conditions behind more than a decade of U.S. equity outperformance are starting to shift.

ClearBridge Investments believes positive forces from One Big Beautiful Bill Act passage and future interest rate cuts should soon outweigh negative forces of tariff actions.

Markets rebounded sharply in 2Q 2025 following April’s tariff-driven selloff. Our mid-year market outlook breaks down the recovery, Fed policy, and where to invest next.

Elevated interest rates and market uncertainty make for an interesting tandem regarding getting core bond exposure. When considering yield, reinforcing a portfolio to absorb market shocks, or both, consider this active option from Vanguard: the Vanguard Core-Plus Bond ETF (VPLS).

Tariff volatility rocked markets for much of the second quarter, creating pressure on U.S. bonds and equities. In the challenging environment, rife with uncertainty and investor concern, a handful of funds generated significant performance.

How the Matthews Emerging Markets Equity Fund’s strategy helped it achieve outperformance during a historic period for global markets.

The headline employment figure came in stronger than expected and better than feared following the weak ADP report, but the details were far from a blockbuster.

If you’ve been following the mainstream financial media lately, you might think the airline industry is in crisis. From headlines about tariffs and labor costs to geopolitical tensions and delays at Newark Airport, it sounds like air travel should be tanking.

We upgrade equities to neutral from underweight as falling interest rates and improving economic conditions in emerging markets offset uncertainty over US tariff policies.

It was a positive quarter for emerging markets equities.

The earnings bar is fairly low for the second quarter, setting companies up for a potential easy jump—but there will likely be more focus on forward guidance.

As the second half gets underway, we think a modest overweight to risk assets is called for.

This year, so far, the world has been riddled with geopolitical news, resonating in widespread unrest, yet seemingly yielding less impact on financial markets.

Below, we recount highlights from constituents of the ROBO Global Robotics and Automation Index (ROBO) and the ROBO Global Artificial Intelligence Index (THNQ).

Semiconductor equities and related ETFs notched impressive performances in the first half of the year. They were buoyed by ongoing enthusiasm for the AI trade and post-Liberation Day resurgence by the Magnificent Seven.

In last week’s letter, I referenced Torsten Sløk’s excellent midyear outlook for Apollo Global Management. Today I’ll share some longer quotes which will, I hope, help you visualize where the economy is headed.

Tariffs have been the dominant theme in economic policy this year. While President Trump has long held protectionist views, his administration’s approach to international commerce has been more belligerent than was seen in his first term.

After a tumultuous few months, June of 2025 saw a strong rally which took global markets to (or close to) new highs. The rally was broad-based, with international and U.S. markets all up strongly.

As the global economy navigates a complex landscape, investors are left wondering: are they right to be optimistic or are they being complacent? This article from Franklin Templeton Institute explores the signs of resilience as well as numerous risks.

Sharp U.S. policy shift and elevated uncertainty reflect an evolution of the new macro regime. What matters: getting a grip on uncertainty by identifying its core features.

Israel-Iran hostilities brought a short-term market focus on oil. Longer term, artificial intelligence (AI) electricity needs could create a power shortage, as well as opportunities and risks for investors.

Equity markets continued to march higher in June, seemingly unfazed by heightened Middle East tensions (which were short-lived) and the looming July 8 deadline for the administration’s pause on reciprocal tariffs.

An economy cannot subsist on services alone.

In recent months, markets have whipsawed amid changes in trade policy, geopolitical shocks, concerns about fiscal sustainability, challenges to central bank independence, technological advancements, and earnings surprises in both directions. Despite this, stocks and bonds in much of the world are close to where they began the year.

When the Fed increased the M2 money supply by over 40% during the COVID crisis, our instinct was that the implications would extend far beyond a temporary boost to the U.S. stock market and higher inflation. That intuition is proving accurate. We’re now seeing the long-term ripple effects play out in real time across multiple asset classes and global markets.

This year’s formidable challenges have clarified strategic lessons for equity investors to apply in the coming months

India has seen foreigners leaving the market for most of 2025. For this and other reasons, India has become one of the bigger shorts in our Systematic Global Macro Strategy’s equity portfolio

As direct lending matures and other private credit areas expand, active investors can apply relative value strategies across sectors – and even entire markets – to pursue enhanced outcomes.

Markets notched fresh all-time highs on Friday with a positive tone and geopolitical outlook. Swift retreat in oil back to pre-strike levels, combined with friendlier NATO negotiations and de-escalated fighting in Iran restored risk appetite.

A potential conflict with Iran has consistently appeared in our monthly Market Risk Monitor for over two years. Now that risk has materialized. Our equity portfolio managers assess the implications for global markets.

Easing trade tensions and hopes the Senate could pass a budget gave stocks an early lift after Friday's record highs. The week is packed with jobs news and Powell talks tomorrow.

Readers of a certain age will no doubt recall President Ronald Reagan launching one of the most ambitious military buildups in American history.