As the effects of US import tariffs begin to emerge, we shift our stance on equities to underweight.
In the report, Portfolio Managers Andy Acker and Dan Lyons say that despite growing policy uncertainty, plenty of healthcare companies have managed to put up big returns.
In a rare moment of honesty, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell admitted he and his fellow central bankers don’t know what they’re doing as they wrapped up the May Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
Bonds and stocks falling together stirs painful memories of the 2022 inflation surge. This time, trade and tariff uncertainty is to blame, along with a dose of questioning the Fed’s independence.
Last week featured a light economic calendar, with the Fed holding its benchmark interest rate steady for the third consecutive meeting.
At Wednesday’s press conference, Chair Jay Powell signaled a wait-and-see approach, as the Fed keeps a close eye on inflation pressures and the job market.
China drove the surge in retail investment demand, charting the second strongest quarter on record.
The S&P 500 ended the week lower, falling 0.47% from last Friday and snapping its two-week win streak.
The yield on the 10-year note ended May 9, 2025 at 4.37%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.88% and the 30-year note ended at 4.83%.
The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We've created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present.
For more than a year, Alphabet Inc. shareholders have fretted over long-term risks posed by artificial intelligence to the company’s money-printing search business. This week the threat became much more immediate.
The culture clash between Bitcoin enthusiasts and gold bugs is about to be played out in the world of exchange-traded funds.
Fed officials remain patient, likely awaiting hard evidence of a weaker U.S. labor market before considering rate cuts.
The federal government recently resumed student loan collections after a multi-year pause. This affects millions of borrowers who have been in forbearance since March 2020. Our Bill Cass outlines some options for borrowers in default.
Central banks continued to stockpile gold in the first quarter.
The Fed held the federal funds rate steady but noted that the risks of slowing economic growth and higher inflation have risen.
As investors wait for updates on trade deals during the pause in tariff implementation, the focus for many has turned to economic growth and the conflicting data surrounding it.
The Federal Reserve held rates steady today, while emphasizing that elevated uncertainty has clouded the path forward. If, when, and how much tariff policy will change in the months to come will play a large part in dictating the next move for the Fed.
Elite golf is a mental game as much as physical—and so is investing. This year’s Masters tournament was one of the most compelling I have ever witnessed, and Rory McIlroy’s long-awaited playoff victory contains a number of life lessons that are relevant for investors.
Once again, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to keep rates unchanged at today’s meeting, leaving the Fed Funds trading range at 4.25%-4.50%, keeping the level for overnight money 100 basis points (bps) below last year’s peak reading.
The current geopolitical climate has injected an extra dose of unpredictability into the economy.
The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the civilian labor force (people aged 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the civilian non-institutional population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution). As of April, the labor force participation rate is at 62.6%, up from 62.5% the previous month.
Today, one in three of the 65-69 cohort, one in five of the 70-74 cohort, and one in ten of the 75+ cohort are in the labor force.
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for April. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 177,000.
Currently, the Three Tactical Rules are a “flashing yellow light” - a roughly neutral rating which represents a slight downgrade.
In the week ending May 3rd, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 228,000. This represents a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was lower than the forecast of 231,000.
After entering the year with a cautious outlook, managers have become more defensively postured as the U.S. tariff policy has increased uncertainty.
When I was much younger, I worked as a bond salesman for a small regional bank in the southwest. I sold some short-term T-bills to yield 17% and some ten-year T-bonds to yield 14%. Paul Volcker, the Fed chairman at the time, had reduced inflation dramatically but the bond market had not yet accepted that new reality and kept interest rates very high for a while after Volker achieved his lower level of inflation.
The Federal Reserve concluded its third meeting of the year by keeping the federal funds rate (FFR) at 4.25-4.50%, as expected.
Private equity transaction volumes remain limited despite predictions for a boom in 2025. With interest rates remaining elevated and the economic backdrop increasingly uncertain, executing acquisitions and IPOs is proving a challenge, leading financial sponsors to hold portfolio companies for longer.
Valid until the market close on May 31, 2025
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
US stocks jumped at the open Wednesday as investors were encouraged by news that the US and China are set to start trade talks this weekend, even as traders awaited the Federal Reserve policy decision later in the day.
Despite negative GDP growth in Q1 and global trade tensions, markets are showing surprising resilience. Investors are betting tariffs will not bite as hard as feared earlier in April and that deals will emerge to soften the blow.
Most economists and portfolio managers are cautious when discussing gold. Its handling and transaction costs are high, and it pays no interest or dividends.
So what has caused such a surge in international returns versus the U.S. so far this year? Is it just short-term noise, reversion to the mean, or something more systematic? If the last few months were purely short-term noise, we will soon know, as U.S. stocks will resume dominance.
Roughly a month on from Liberation Day one thing is clear: While actual tariff numbers may not be set, markets have certainly been liberated from complacency. S
Multiple jobholders accounted for 5.4% of civilian employment in April.
April's employment report showed that 82.6% of total employed workers were full-time (35+ hours) and 17.4% of total employed workers were part-time (<35 hours).
Gas prices were essentially flat this week, remaining near their lowest levels in six weeks. As of May 5th, the price of regular was up 1 cent while premium gas was unchanged from the previous week.
Travel on all roads and streets increased in March. The 12-month moving average was up 0.10% month-over-month but was up 0.99% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.03% MoM and down 0.91% YoY.
What does the ratio of unemployment claims to the civilian labor force tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?
In recent times, central bank independence has been taken as gospel. Political pressure for easy money contributed to extremes of inflation in the 1970s.
Markets clawed back early losses in April, but one thing has become clear – policy uncertainty and risk isn’t fading, it’s spreading.
Results from some of the Magnificent 7 names last week reignited the AI trade. Both Meta and Microsoft reported after-the-bell on Wednesday, blowing past analyst estimates
If you’ve been inside a Walmart, Target or Home Depot in the past week, you may not realize that a trade war is underway between the U.S. and China, the world’s two largest economies. Store shelves are well stocked, and prices have largely held steady.
This week marks the first 100 days of President Trump’s second term in office—and what a rollercoaster it has been for the financial markets! While presidents often enjoy a ‘honeymoon period’ at the start of their tenure, Trump wasted no time ‘flooding the zone’ by pushing forward many of his key initiatives.
Noise about tariffs, business uncertainty, a constitutional fight, and a drop in stock prices had already created fear of a recession. When real GDP declined in the first quarter of 2025, some started to question if a recession is already here. Let’s take a deep breath and consider the facts.
US markets struggled in the first half of April due to tariff-related worries. The second half saw rallies amid policy reversal.
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the April 2025 close.
The S&P 500 real monthly averages of daily closes reached a new all-time high in December 2024 but has retreated from it over the past few months. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical bull and bear market trends in market performance.
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $21,618 for an annualized real return of 15.52%.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its March Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 51.6—above the forecast of 50.2. This marks the tenth consecutive month of expansion for the index.
The April U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 50.8, below the 51.4 forecast. The reading marks the 27th consecutive month of expansion and the slowest growth since November 2023.
Shockingly, given that I thought most readers would find interest rate swaps dull or wonky, we have received a few emails asking for more information. Given the importance of liquidity to all markets and how interest rate swap spreads are a good liquidity barometer, it's worth giving you that “coming article” now.
Jim Tuchler, a Chicago-area retailer, and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell have a lot in common these days.
The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of April 25th, the index was at 6.038, down 1.531 from the previous week, with 4 of the 6 components in expansion territory.
Warren Buffett picked the final minute of his 60th shareholder meeting to drop a long-awaited announcement that was still completely surprising for his fans, most of his board and even his successor.
In investing, success is often judged by numbers—returns on investment, percentage gains, and the ability to outperform benchmarks like the S&P 500. However, some investors frequently pursue a peculiar set of “awards” without realizing the pitfalls they embody.
Last week's economic data arrived against the backdrop of a buoyant stock market enjoying a nine-day winning streak — its longest since 2004.a
The GDP report for the first quarter of the year showed a very engaged business sector as it rushed to try to minimize, as much as possible, the future impact of higher tariffs.
April was a volatile and policy-sensitive month in the markets. Every week, my colleagues and I were joined by Professor Jeremy Siegel to discuss how macroeconomic data, Federal Reserve policy and the variety of tariff proposals from President Trump shaped sentiment and the investment landscape.
Inflation is caused by the growth of the money supply, and gold is a strong hedge because it rises alongside it.
Economic data can be soft or hard. “Soft” data reflects attitudes, expectations, opinions, and feelings. It’s a step removed from the “hard” data reflecting actual events. Soft data is still valuable because future expectations shape the hard data that follows.
For decades, U.S. Treasuries have been universally regarded as a benchmark and a safe haven asset during periods of turmoil.
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In April, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 177,000 while the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%.
Amazon.com Inc. said it’s bracing for a tougher business climate in the coming months, echoing concerns from a range of companies that tariffs and related economic turmoil could crimp consumer spending.
The world’s biggest exchange-traded fund just got its biggest endorsement yet.
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. This analysis focuses on the P/E10 ratio, key indicator of market valuation, and its correlation with inflation and the 10-year Treasury yield.
US job growth was robust in April and the unemployment rate held steady, suggesting uncertainty over President Donald Trump’s trade policy has yet to have a material impact on hiring plans.
Apple Inc. received at least two downgrades on Friday, following quarterly results that reinforced concerns over tariffs and its growth potential.
The latest employment report showed that 177,000 jobs were added in April, down from 185,000 in March but higher than the expected 138,000 addition. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, as expected.
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is a so-called "soft" report, not reflecting "hard" data like GDP or CPI. It moved markets recently, so how much attention should investors pay?
Conventional wisdom is that investors should hold gold as an inflation hedge. Over the long term, this is a wise strategy.ok,
Uncertainty reigned through April and likely will continue to do so, at least in the near term. Markets have reacted, both negatively and positively, to every headline coming out of Washington.
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses the ongoing uncertainty around tariffs and how investors can protect their portfolios against the potential for an environment of prolonged and heighted volatility.
A tense global trade war, policy uncertainty and other investor concerns in recent weeks have unleashed the sharpest market swings in years, with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) spiking to 52.3 on April 8.
Businesses may face challenges but there are also a number of tax-smart strategies that can help mitigate tax liability and enhance efficiency. Our Bill Cass discusses several tax-smart strategies to consider.
Sustainable adjustments to trade imbalances require supportive monetary and fiscal policies – not just currency intervention.
Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.
Based on the April S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E of 36.0 is 137% above its arithmetic mean, 159% above its geometric mean, and is in the 98th percentile of this 14-plus-decade series.
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 24.5 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 32.6.
At the end of April, the inflation-adjusted S&P Composite Index was 145% above its long-term trend, down from 160% in March. This is the lowest variance in twelve months.
The US Federal Reserve is undertaking a major rethink of how it manages the world’s largest economy.
Famous gold skeptic Warren Buffett is right about the dangers of inflation when it comes to non-producing assets, but he’s never been a fan of gold. Monetary Metals has transformed gold into a productive asset by generating a yield on gold, paid in gold, proving Buffett wrong about gold and giving investors new ways to own this timeless asset.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 48.7 in April, indicating contraction in U.S. manufacturing for a second straight month. The latest reading was above the forecast of 48.0.
U.S. manufacturing growth remained subdued in April as confidence in the outlook hit a ten-month low and prices continued to quickly rise. With that said, the S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI remained in expansion territory for a fourth straight month in April at 50.2 signaling a marginal expansion. The latest reading was lower than the 50.7 forecast.
The 10-year Treasury yield has experienced dramatic fluctuations, ranging from a peak of 15.68% in October 1981, during the height of the Volcker era, to a historic low of 0.55% in August 2020, amidst the economic uncertainty of the pandemic. As of April 30, 2025, the weekly average stood at 4.37%.
The Covid-19 pandemic brought some big shifts in the US labor market. The biggest was the departure of millions of older workers, ending a decades-long rise in employment and labor-force participation rates for those 65 and older.
Stable value funds can offer capital preservation and stable returns. Our Mike Dullaghan explains the key role of stable value in long-term retirement savings.
"This earnings season is critical". We've heard that line before, but this time we believe it really is.
Economic Insights
Barometer: Equities Set for Further Falls as Tariffs Bite
As the effects of US import tariffs begin to emerge, we shift our stance on equities to underweight.
A Gameplan for Healthcare Investing Amid Policy Uncertainty
In the report, Portfolio Managers Andy Acker and Dan Lyons say that despite growing policy uncertainty, plenty of healthcare companies have managed to put up big returns.
Fed Chair Powell Tells the Truth: "We Don't Know!"
In a rare moment of honesty, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell admitted he and his fellow central bankers don’t know what they’re doing as they wrapped up the May Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
You Can Run, But You Can’t Hedge
Bonds and stocks falling together stirs painful memories of the 2022 inflation surge. This time, trade and tariff uncertainty is to blame, along with a dose of questioning the Fed’s independence.
Weekly Economic Snapshot: Fed Holds Steady Amid Services Growth & Record Trade Gap
Last week featured a light economic calendar, with the Fed holding its benchmark interest rate steady for the third consecutive meeting.
Increased Risks to Both Sides of the Dual Mandate
At Wednesday’s press conference, Chair Jay Powell signaled a wait-and-see approach, as the Fed keeps a close eye on inflation pressures and the job market.
Global Gold Bar and Coin Demand Rose in Q1 But Not in the U.S.
China drove the surge in retail investment demand, charting the second strongest quarter on record.
S&P 500 Snapshot: Win Streak Snapped
The S&P 500 ended the week lower, falling 0.47% from last Friday and snapping its two-week win streak.
Treasury Yields Snapshot: May 9, 2025
The yield on the 10-year note ended May 9, 2025 at 4.37%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.88% and the 30-year note ended at 4.83%.
Baby Boomer Employment Through the Decades
The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We've created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present.
Alphabet Shares Take $115 Billion Blow as Search Warnings Blare
For more than a year, Alphabet Inc. shareholders have fretted over long-term risks posed by artificial intelligence to the company’s money-printing search business. This week the threat became much more immediate.
Wall Street Brings the Bitcoin-Versus-Gold Clash to ETF Masses
The culture clash between Bitcoin enthusiasts and gold bugs is about to be played out in the world of exchange-traded funds.
The Fed Is in a ‘Good Place’: But for How Long?
Fed officials remain patient, likely awaiting hard evidence of a weaker U.S. labor market before considering rate cuts.
For Students With College Debt in Default, it’s Time to Pay the Bill
The federal government recently resumed student loan collections after a multi-year pause. This affects millions of borrowers who have been in forbearance since March 2020. Our Bill Cass outlines some options for borrowers in default.
Central Banks Continued Stockpiling Gold in Q1
Central banks continued to stockpile gold in the first quarter.
Fed Holds Rates Steady but Warns of Rising Risks
The Fed held the federal funds rate steady but noted that the risks of slowing economic growth and higher inflation have risen.
Mixed Signals on the Path Ahead for U.S. Economy
As investors wait for updates on trade deals during the pause in tariff implementation, the focus for many has turned to economic growth and the conflicting data surrounding it.
Awaiting Further Clarity
The Federal Reserve held rates steady today, while emphasizing that elevated uncertainty has clouded the path forward. If, when, and how much tariff policy will change in the months to come will play a large part in dictating the next move for the Fed.
Risk, Reward, and Rory at the Masters
Elite golf is a mental game as much as physical—and so is investing. This year’s Masters tournament was one of the most compelling I have ever witnessed, and Rory McIlroy’s long-awaited playoff victory contains a number of life lessons that are relevant for investors.
Fed Watch: Still Waiting
Once again, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to keep rates unchanged at today’s meeting, leaving the Fed Funds trading range at 4.25%-4.50%, keeping the level for overnight money 100 basis points (bps) below last year’s peak reading.
The 2-Faced Economy: Strong Data Amid Shaky Sentiment
The current geopolitical climate has injected an extra dose of unpredictability into the economy.
Long-Term Employment Trends by Age and Gender: April 2025
The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the civilian labor force (people aged 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the civilian non-institutional population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution). As of April, the labor force participation rate is at 62.6%, up from 62.5% the previous month.
Employment Trends for the 50+ Workforce: April 2025
Today, one in three of the 65-69 cohort, one in five of the 70-74 cohort, and one in ten of the 75+ cohort are in the labor force.
U.S. Workforce Recovery Analysis: April 2025
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for April. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 177,000.
Tactical Rules Move to Neutral
Currently, the Three Tactical Rules are a “flashing yellow light” - a roughly neutral rating which represents a slight downgrade.
Unemployment Claims Down 13K, Lower Than Expected
In the week ending May 3rd, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 228,000. This represents a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was lower than the forecast of 231,000.
Tariff Risks Reshape Manager Positioning
After entering the year with a cautious outlook, managers have become more defensively postured as the U.S. tariff policy has increased uncertainty.
Bonzai Bonds: Could 14% Treasury Bonds Return?
When I was much younger, I worked as a bond salesman for a small regional bank in the southwest. I sold some short-term T-bills to yield 17% and some ten-year T-bonds to yield 14%. Paul Volcker, the Fed chairman at the time, had reduced inflation dramatically but the bond market had not yet accepted that new reality and kept interest rates very high for a while after Volker achieved his lower level of inflation.
Fed’s Interest Rate Decision: May 7, 2025
The Federal Reserve concluded its third meeting of the year by keeping the federal funds rate (FFR) at 4.25-4.50%, as expected.
Gridlock
Private equity transaction volumes remain limited despite predictions for a boom in 2025. With interest rates remaining elevated and the economic backdrop increasingly uncertain, executing acquisitions and IPOs is proving a challenge, leading financial sponsors to hold portfolio companies for longer.
Moving Averages of the Ivy Portfolio and S&P 500: April 2025
Valid until the market close on May 31, 2025
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
US Stocks Rise on China Trade Talk Hopes Ahead of Fed Decision
US stocks jumped at the open Wednesday as investors were encouraged by news that the US and China are set to start trade talks this weekend, even as traders awaited the Federal Reserve policy decision later in the day.
Markets Betting on Tariff Relief But Impact Still Lurks
Despite negative GDP growth in Q1 and global trade tensions, markets are showing surprising resilience. Investors are betting tariffs will not bite as hard as feared earlier in April and that deals will emerge to soften the blow.
Gold Has Many Buyers
Most economists and portfolio managers are cautious when discussing gold. Its handling and transaction costs are high, and it pays no interest or dividends.
International Investing: A New Paradigm?
So what has caused such a surge in international returns versus the U.S. so far this year? Is it just short-term noise, reversion to the mean, or something more systematic? If the last few months were purely short-term noise, we will soon know, as U.S. stocks will resume dominance.
A Tariff-Centric World Takes Shape
Roughly a month on from Liberation Day one thing is clear: While actual tariff numbers may not be set, markets have certainly been liberated from complacency. S
Multiple Jobholders Account for 5.4% of Workers in April 2025
Multiple jobholders accounted for 5.4% of civilian employment in April.
A Closer Look at Full-time and Part-time Employment: April 2025
April's employment report showed that 82.6% of total employed workers were full-time (35+ hours) and 17.4% of total employed workers were part-time (<35 hours).
Gas Prices Essentially Flat from Last Week
Gas prices were essentially flat this week, remaining near their lowest levels in six weeks. As of May 5th, the price of regular was up 1 cent while premium gas was unchanged from the previous week.
America's Driving Habits: March 2025
Travel on all roads and streets increased in March. The 12-month moving average was up 0.10% month-over-month but was up 0.99% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.03% MoM and down 0.91% YoY.
Unemployment Claims and the CLF as a Recession Indicator: April 2025
What does the ratio of unemployment claims to the civilian labor force tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?
Criticism of The Fed: Rule, Not Exception
In recent times, central bank independence has been taken as gospel. Political pressure for easy money contributed to extremes of inflation in the 1970s.
Ongoing Policy Uncertainty Keeps Markets Uneasy
Markets clawed back early losses in April, but one thing has become clear – policy uncertainty and risk isn’t fading, it’s spreading.
Big Tech Breathes Life into Q1 Earnings
Results from some of the Magnificent 7 names last week reignited the AI trade. Both Meta and Microsoft reported after-the-bell on Wednesday, blowing past analyst estimates
U.S. Ports Face Massive Slowdowns as Trump Tariffs Bite Hard
If you’ve been inside a Walmart, Target or Home Depot in the past week, you may not realize that a trade war is underway between the U.S. and China, the world’s two largest economies. Store shelves are well stocked, and prices have largely held steady.
Looking Beyond President Trump’s First 100 Days in Office
This week marks the first 100 days of President Trump’s second term in office—and what a rollercoaster it has been for the financial markets! While presidents often enjoy a ‘honeymoon period’ at the start of their tenure, Trump wasted no time ‘flooding the zone’ by pushing forward many of his key initiatives.
No Recession Yet, But Risks Remain
Noise about tariffs, business uncertainty, a constitutional fight, and a drop in stock prices had already created fear of a recession. When real GDP declined in the first quarter of 2025, some started to question if a recession is already here. Let’s take a deep breath and consider the facts.
Staying Resilient in Uncertain Markets
US markets struggled in the first half of April due to tariff-related worries. The second half saw rallies amid policy reversal.
The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since 2000 Highs as of April 2025
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the April 2025 close.
Secular Bull and Bear Market Trends: April 2025
The S&P 500 real monthly averages of daily closes reached a new all-time high in December 2024 but has retreated from it over the past few months. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical bull and bear market trends in market performance.
The Total Return Roller Coaster: April 2025
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $21,618 for an annualized real return of 15.52%.
ISM Services PMI Expanded for Tenth Straight Month in April
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its March Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 51.6—above the forecast of 50.2. This marks the tenth consecutive month of expansion for the index.
S&P Global Services PMI: Slowest Growth in 17 Months
The April U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 50.8, below the 51.4 forecast. The reading marks the 27th consecutive month of expansion and the slowest growth since November 2023.
Interest Rate Swaps: The Plumbing of the Financial System
Shockingly, given that I thought most readers would find interest rate swaps dull or wonky, we have received a few emails asking for more information. Given the importance of liquidity to all markets and how interest rate swap spreads are a good liquidity barometer, it's worth giving you that “coming article” now.
Trade Chaos is Part of the Plan for Trump, Nightmare for Powell
Jim Tuchler, a Chicago-area retailer, and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell have a lot in common these days.
RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Economic Index
The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of April 25th, the index was at 6.038, down 1.531 from the previous week, with 4 of the 6 components in expansion territory.
Buffett Hands Successor a Giant Cash Pile and Many Questions
Warren Buffett picked the final minute of his 60th shareholder meeting to drop a long-awaited announcement that was still completely surprising for his fans, most of his board and even his successor.
The Awards You Never Get When Investing
In investing, success is often judged by numbers—returns on investment, percentage gains, and the ability to outperform benchmarks like the S&P 500. However, some investors frequently pursue a peculiar set of “awards” without realizing the pitfalls they embody.
Weekly Economic Snapshot: Solid Jobs Amid GDP Contraction & Crashing Confidence
Last week's economic data arrived against the backdrop of a buoyant stock market enjoying a nine-day winning streak — its longest since 2004.a
Firms Front-Load Increase in Tariffs During Q1 2025
The GDP report for the first quarter of the year showed a very engaged business sector as it rushed to try to minimize, as much as possible, the future impact of higher tariffs.
Top Lessons from Professor Siegel This April
April was a volatile and policy-sensitive month in the markets. Every week, my colleagues and I were joined by Professor Jeremy Siegel to discuss how macroeconomic data, Federal Reserve policy and the variety of tariff proposals from President Trump shaped sentiment and the investment landscape.
Gold Isn't Going Up - Your Money is Just Losing Value
Inflation is caused by the growth of the money supply, and gold is a strong hedge because it rises alongside it.
Soft Data Gets Softer
Economic data can be soft or hard. “Soft” data reflects attitudes, expectations, opinions, and feelings. It’s a step removed from the “hard” data reflecting actual events. Soft data is still valuable because future expectations shape the hard data that follows.
U.S. Treasuries Falling Out of Favor?
For decades, U.S. Treasuries have been universally regarded as a benchmark and a safe haven asset during periods of turmoil.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: April Employment
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In April, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 177,000 while the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%.
Amazon Braces for Tougher Business Climate as US Tariffs Hit
Amazon.com Inc. said it’s bracing for a tougher business climate in the coming months, echoing concerns from a range of companies that tariffs and related economic turmoil could crimp consumer spending.
Vanguard’s VOO, World’s Biggest ETF, Nabs Record Flows in April
The world’s biggest exchange-traded fund just got its biggest endorsement yet.
Market Valuation, Inflation and Treasury Yields - April 2025
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. This analysis focuses on the P/E10 ratio, key indicator of market valuation, and its correlation with inflation and the 10-year Treasury yield.
US Payroll Gain of 177,000 Shows Uncertainty Yet to Dent Hiring
US job growth was robust in April and the unemployment rate held steady, suggesting uncertainty over President Donald Trump’s trade policy has yet to have a material impact on hiring plans.
Apple Hit With Two Downgrades as Tariff and Growth Worries Grow
Apple Inc. received at least two downgrades on Friday, following quarterly results that reinforced concerns over tariffs and its growth potential.
Employment Report: 177K Jobs Added in April, More Than Expected
The latest employment report showed that 177,000 jobs were added in April, down from 185,000 in March but higher than the expected 138,000 addition. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, as expected.
"Soft" Data Hits Hard: Why Does Sentiment Matter?
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is a so-called "soft" report, not reflecting "hard" data like GDP or CPI. It moved markets recently, so how much attention should investors pay?
Buy Gold to Hedge Against Everything!
Conventional wisdom is that investors should hold gold as an inflation hedge. Over the long term, this is a wise strategy.ok,
April Showered with Tariff Talk, Market Volatility
Uncertainty reigned through April and likely will continue to do so, at least in the near term. Markets have reacted, both negatively and positively, to every headline coming out of Washington.
Aim to Keep Risk Modest and Quality High
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses the ongoing uncertainty around tariffs and how investors can protect their portfolios against the potential for an environment of prolonged and heighted volatility.
Staying Diversified When Turbulence Makes Cash Tempting
A tense global trade war, policy uncertainty and other investor concerns in recent weeks have unleashed the sharpest market swings in years, with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) spiking to 52.3 on April 8.
Key Tax Planning Strategies for Business Owners
Businesses may face challenges but there are also a number of tax-smart strategies that can help mitigate tax liability and enhance efficiency. Our Bill Cass discusses several tax-smart strategies to consider.
The Real Lessons From the Plaza and Louvre Accords
Sustainable adjustments to trade imbalances require supportive monetary and fiscal policies – not just currency intervention.
Market Valuation: Is the Market Still Overvalued?
Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.
Crestmont P/E and Market Valuation: April 2025
Based on the April S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E of 36.0 is 137% above its arithmetic mean, 159% above its geometric mean, and is in the 98th percentile of this 14-plus-decade series.
P/E10 and Market Valuation: April 2025
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 24.5 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 32.6.
Regression to Trend: S&P Composite 145% Above Trend in April
At the end of April, the inflation-adjusted S&P Composite Index was 145% above its long-term trend, down from 160% in March. This is the lowest variance in twelve months.
Six Ways the Federal Reserve Can Do a Better Job
The US Federal Reserve is undertaking a major rethink of how it manages the world’s largest economy.
Warren Buffett Is Wrong About Gold
Famous gold skeptic Warren Buffett is right about the dangers of inflation when it comes to non-producing assets, but he’s never been a fan of gold. Monetary Metals has transformed gold into a productive asset by generating a yield on gold, paid in gold, proving Buffett wrong about gold and giving investors new ways to own this timeless asset.
ISM Manufacturing PMI: Slipped Further into Contraction in April
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 48.7 in April, indicating contraction in U.S. manufacturing for a second straight month. The latest reading was above the forecast of 48.0.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Subdued Growth in April
U.S. manufacturing growth remained subdued in April as confidence in the outlook hit a ten-month low and prices continued to quickly rise. With that said, the S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI remained in expansion territory for a fourth straight month in April at 50.2 signaling a marginal expansion. The latest reading was lower than the 50.7 forecast.
10-Year Treasury Yield Long-Term Perspective: April 2025
The 10-year Treasury yield has experienced dramatic fluctuations, ranging from a peak of 15.68% in October 1981, during the height of the Volcker era, to a historic low of 0.55% in August 2020, amidst the economic uncertainty of the pandemic. As of April 30, 2025, the weekly average stood at 4.37%.
Gen Z’s Hole in the Labor Market Could Soon Grow
The Covid-19 pandemic brought some big shifts in the US labor market. The biggest was the departure of millions of older workers, ending a decades-long rise in employment and labor-force participation rates for those 65 and older.
Why Stable Value is Critical in Retirement Plan Menus
Stable value funds can offer capital preservation and stable returns. Our Mike Dullaghan explains the key role of stable value in long-term retirement savings.
Earnings at a Crossroads: Trade Pressures & Market Expectations Collide
"This earnings season is critical". We've heard that line before, but this time we believe it really is.