Estate Planning

Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped for a fourth straight month, falling to 95.8 in April. Notably, the percent of small business owners who reported difficulty filling job openings fell to its lowest level since January 2021.

Inflation cooled for a third straight month in April, hitting its lowest level in over four years. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index was at 2.3% year-over-year, down from 2.4% in March and lower than the expected 2.4% growth.

Seven of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through May 12, 2025. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 20.01%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 15.71% while France's CAC 40 is in third with a year to date gain of 6.24%.

The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We've created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present.

Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for April. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 177,000.

Multiple jobholders accounted for 5.4% of civilian employment in April.

April's employment report showed that 82.6% of total employed workers were full-time (35+ hours) and 17.4% of total employed workers were part-time (<35 hours).

Travel on all roads and streets increased in March. The 12-month moving average was up 0.10% month-over-month but was up 0.99% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.03% MoM and down 0.91% YoY.

The U.S. trade deficit widened to a record high as imports rose more than exports. In March, the trade deficit rose 14.0% to -$140.5B, the fourth monthly increase in the past five months.

The moving average for the per-capita light vehicle sales series peaked in August 1978. Almost 50 years later, it is down 35.2% from that peak.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 48.7 in April, indicating contraction in U.S. manufacturing for a second straight month. The latest reading was above the forecast of 48.0.

U.S. manufacturing growth remained subdued in April as confidence in the outlook hit a ten-month low and prices continued to quickly rise. With that said, the S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI remained in expansion territory for a fourth straight month in April at 50.2 signaling a marginal expansion. The latest reading was lower than the 50.7 forecast.

The 10-year Treasury yield has experienced dramatic fluctuations, ranging from a peak of 15.68% in October 1981, during the height of the Volcker era, to a historic low of 0.55% in August 2020, amidst the economic uncertainty of the pandemic. As of April 30, 2025, the weekly average stood at 4.37%.

With the release of March's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.42% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.46% when we adjust for inflation, the largest monthly gain since January 2024. The year-over-year metrics are 3.33% nominal and 1.01% real.

Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.6% in March and is up 3.7% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.7% month-over-month and up 1.4% year-over-year.

The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for March showed that core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 2.6%. The March core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 2.8%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q1 2025 GDP advance estimate, two of the four components made positive contributions.

The advance estimate for Q1 GDP came in at -0.28%, a deceleration from 2.45% for the Q4 third estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at -0.89%, a slowdown from 1.82% for the Q4 headline number.

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, rose 2.6% year-over-year in March, marking the lowest level for the index since June. This was consistent with the forecast and a slowdown from 3.0% in February. On a monthly basis, the index was flat, lower than the expected 0.1% growth.

The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index rose more than expected in March, experiencing its largest monthly increase in over two years. The index came in at 76.5, a 6.1% jump from the previous month but a 0.6% decline from one year ago. Pending home sales were expected to rise 0.9% month-over-month.

The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business Barometer) fell for the first time this year. The index dropped to 44.6 this month from 47.6 in March, falling short of the 45.9 forecast. The latest reading marks the 17th consecutive month the index has contracted.

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® plunged to its lowest level in nearly five years in April. The index fell to 86.0 this month from March's upwardly revised 93.9, marking the fifth consecutive monthly decline, the longest streak since 2008.

Home prices continued to trend upwards in February as the benchmark national index rose for the 25th consecutive month to a 21st straight record high. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.3% increase MoM, and a 3.9% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to 0.0% and YoY fell to -0.5%.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) rose to 437.3 in February. U.S. house prices were up 0.1% from the previous month, lower than the expected 0.3% growth, and up 3.9% from one year ago. This marks the 30th consecutive monthly increase for the index.

The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for April. The general business activity index came in at -35.8, its lowest level since 2020. This marks a 19.5 point decline from the previous month and the third straight monthly decline.

The Census Bureau released its latest quarterly report for Q1 2025 showing the latest homeownership rate is at 65.1%, the lowest level in over five years.

The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey revealed regional activity declined modestly in April, with the composite index at -4. This marks the 20th consecutive month the index has been negative. Future expectations stayed positive, though they eased from 10 in March to 6 in April.

Existing home sales sank in March with their largest monthly decline since 2022. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales fell 5.9% from February, hitting a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million units in March.

New orders for manufactured durable goods rose to $315.73B in March. This represents a 9.2% increase from the previous month and a 11.9% rise from one year ago. The latest reading was higher than the projected 2.1% monthly growth.

New home sales reached a six-month high in March while the median price fell for a second straight month.

Fifth district manufacturing activity slowed further in April, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index fell nine points this month to -13 after falling ten points in March, marking the largest two-month decline since early 2022. This month's reading was worse than the forecast of -6.

This series has been updated to include the March release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $52,322, down 5.9% from over 50 years ago.

This chart series features an overlay of four major secular bear markets: the Crash of 1929, the Oil Embargo of 1973, the Tech Bubble, and the Financial Crisis. The numbers are through the March 31, 2025 close.

When we think of the U.S. government's finances, we often focus on the massive debt. But what about the assets? What does Uncle Sam actually own, and which asset is the largest?

As of Q4 2024, the latest Fed balance sheet indicates that household net worth has risen 186% since reaching its 2009 low. However, when adjusted for inflation, household net worth has actually increased by only 93% since the 2009 trough.

The median US income in 2023 was $80,610, up from $22,420 in 1984 — a 260% rise over the 39-year time frame. However, if we adjust for inflation chained in 2023 dollars, the 1984 median is $55,828, and the increase drops to 37%.

What is the relationship between education and household income? The Census Bureau’s 2023 annual survey data provides valuable insights into this question. The median household income for individuals aged 25 and older was $82,010, but how does this figure vary based on educational attainment?

The median household is the statistical center of the Middle Class. Let's take a closer look at the Census Bureau's latest annual household income data with a focus on middle class income. In this update, we'll focus on the growing gap between the median (middle) and mean (average) household incomes across the complete time frame of the Census Bureau's annual reporting from 1867 to 2023.

Our commentary on household income distribution offers some fascinating insights into average U.S. household incomes, but misses the implications of age for income. In this update, we examine household income with a focus on age bracket.

A few months ago, the Census Bureau released its annual report on household income data for 2023. During 2023, the median (middle) average household income rose 8.0% to $80,730. Let's take a closer look at the quintile averages, which dates from 1967, along with the statistics for the top 5%.