Strong returns in US equities over the past decade have led many investors to reduce their allocations to emerging markets equities. Yet, for investors focused on capturing growth, emerging markets may present a new frontier by which to participate in the next wave of global economic evolution. Emerging markets equities can provide exposure to transformative forces such as digitalization, productivity enhancements, shifting cultural norms, and rapid urbanization. These dynamics are not just shaping the future of emerging economies; they are laying the groundwork for growth and innovation.
Join the experts at Swan Global Investments for an educational webcast on how an active approach to hedged equity can mitigate risk in volatile times and capture growth opportunites.
American consumers have surprised many economists this year by continuing to spend even as their savings shrink and the labor market cools. They’ve been aided in part by pockets of deflation that have boosted their purchasing power on things such as gasoline, automobiles and airfares.
Stock buybacks have boomed in recent years. With corporate cash flows remaining high and potential rate cuts from the Fed, the trend appears set to continue.
Since the end of the “Yen Carry Trade” correction in August, bullish positioning has returned with a vengeance, yet two key risks face investors as September begins. While bullish positioning and optimism are ingredients for a rising market, there is more to this story.
Shopping around for an active ETF? This strategy has outperformed SPY recently thanks to its ability to over- or underweight certain stocks.
We are entering a time I think will include a deep crisis. We are going to need each other. We really do need to “find our tribe.”
ETFs saw a record number of inflows in August, including bond-focused funds, which are offering opportunities in corporate debt.
The U.S. economy may be heading into choppy waters, and investors might be wise to buckle up.
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Investment Strategist BeiChen Lin assessed the state of the economy, including the health of the services and manufacturing sectors, and the likelihood of a big rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.
High-yield investors put off by today’s narrow spreads could be missing out.
The main focus for investors should is no longer if the Fed will cut rates in 2024, but how much and how quickly the Fed will lower interest rates.
Recent growth data have been muddled and subject to conflicting interpretations. There have been mixed signals from leading indicators and hard data and divergent readings across major economies.
Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said that while the August employment report wasn’t particularly poor, it did make predicting the size of the Federal Reserve’s likely interest-rate cut this month a tougher call.
Amundi SA and First Eagle Investment Management are looking to raise as much as $5 billion for a new private credit strategy that will offer wealthy individuals in Europe, the Middle East and Asia access to private loans made to mid-size US companies.
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, a.k.a. Mr. Valuation and Professor Nathan Mauck, Phd. are going to talk about how to approach dividend growth stocks-focusing on the health of the dividend, the growth of the dividend. Smart investing with research-driven principles.
Nvidia Corp. has wiped out more than $400 billion in value this week, weighing on key equity benchmarks as jitters spread over the health of the US economy and an AI trade that may have gotten ahead of itself.
As market sensitivity to economic data continues, investors would do well to consider active strategies amidst ongoing volatility.
After two days of record sales in the US blue-chip corporate debt market, another 11 companies are looking to sell bonds on Thursday, and demand for the securities is holding strong by key measures.
Former President Donald Trump’s proposals for targeted tax breaks are resonating with battleground-state voters, who overwhelmingly approve of his ideas to eliminate taxes on tipped income and retirement benefits.
Despite what you may have heard from the doomers, the US labor market is hardly falling apart at the seams. Layoffs are still extraordinarily low and a report Friday showed that the overall unemployment rate slipped to just 4.2%.
We think the decline in the S&P 500 Index on Tuesday may be more technical than fundamental.
The concept of portable alpha is over 40 years old. And while it has evolved through various forms over that time, it continues to be a valuable portfolio tool for institutional investors. Arguably, the most popular iteration right now is adding alpha expected from hedge funds on top of synthetic beta exposure.
Gold is typically an asset that doesn’t generate yield, but there are ETFs that deliver yield on a gold position through options.
The yield on the 10-year note ended September 6, 2024 at 3.72%, the 2-year note ended at 3.66%, and the 30-year at 4.03%.
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of those indicators, nonfarm employment. August saw a 142,000 increase in total nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment fell to 4.2%.
The latest employment report showed 142,000 jobs were added in August, falling short of the expected addition of 164,000 new jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked lower to 4.2%.
OPEC+ is like a teabag – it only works in hot water. The late Robert Mabro, one of the savviest oil-market observers, liked to say the cartel only got the job done when it was under prolonged financial pain. To judge by its latest actions, OPEC+ has yet to realize it’s inside a warming kettle.
Most people see “blockchain” and “funds” in the same sentence and immediately think of pools of money betting on cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ether. That isn’t how Singapore sees the utility of distributed ledgers.
US hiring fell short of forecasts in August after downward revisions to the prior two months, a development likely to fuel ongoing debate over how much the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates.
US Treasuries gained and traders ramped up their bets that the Federal Reserve will opt for a supersized interest-rate cut this month after a mixed report on the US labor market.
The world’s biggest asset manager is taking some chips off the table as markets enter a “new phase” of turbulence ahead of a Federal Reserve interest rate cutting cycle and the US presidential election.
In a recent discussion with Adam Taggart via Thoughtful Money, we quickly touched on the similarities between the U.S. and Japanese monetary policies around the 11-minute mark. However, that discussion warrants a deeper dive. As we will review, Japan has much to tell us about the future of the U.S. economically.
Money can still be a factor in inflation.
Candidate tax policies could affect municipal bonds, but the bigger picture is important too.
With Labor Day now in the rearview mirror, the money and bond markets will no doubt become laser focused on the September FOMC meeting. Yes, Fed Chair Powell telegraphed that a rate cut is forthcoming, but he also emphasized how monetary policy is still data dependent.
Recent changes to the FAFSA form and process include a simpler form, fewer questions and a revised eligibility formula. Our Bill Cass highlights what you need to know to apply for federal financial aid for college.
Presidential elections tend to have limited impact on market performance, regardless of party win (although markets prefer Democratic switches). Investors should capitalize on the uptick in market volatility, which investors can use for strategic investing.
We often write about the opportunity for fixed income investors to lock in relatively attractive long-term rates. And we would argue that investment consultants and financial advisors have no more important charge than to convince their clients to take advantage of this while they still can.
Private assets are the fastest-growing market in the financial world, but could be the most challenging field for ETF providers to penetrate.
High interest rates have had the predictable effect of restraining the performances of dividend stocks and related exchange traded funds.
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has released its August services purchasing managers' index (PMI). The headline composite index is at 51.5, slightly better than the forecast. The latest reading moves the index back into expansion territory for 48th time in the past 50 months.
The Federal Reserve is creating the potential for extreme bouts of volatility surrounded economic data releases.
Tax policies touted in the US presidential election could have a big impact on S&P 500 earnings, according to Goldman Sachs Inc. strategists.
The bold bet from the likes of Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. that the Federal Reserve will slash interest rates by a half-percentage-point this month faces its biggest test yet from Friday’s US jobs report.
Labor Day weekend, marking the end of the US summer driving season, is typically the year’s last hurrah for gasoline producers. This year, the high-fives were reserved for drivers (and White House occupants): The average pre-long weekend pump price was down 13% from last year after gasoline refining margins collapsed in August. Pump prices have eased further this week.
Despite pullbacks and elevated volatility in the earlier days of the month, major equity indices were up in August.
Jane Street Group LLC and Citadel Securities are on a tear. First-half revenue at the two predominantly electronic market makers grew about 80% compared with the first six months of 2023, according to Bloomberg News. That’s enough to make traditional Wall Street executives green with envy — but these upstarts aren’t going to completely devour the old guards’ lunch.
A key segment of the US Treasury yield curve briefly turned positive as weaker-than-anticipated labor-market data bolstered bets on steep interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Investors should be careful what they wish for in hoping for an aggressive Fed rate cutting cycle, given stocks tend to do better when cuts are slow and steady.
When we’re viewing markets, it’s not surprising sentiment shifts quickly if we don’t instantly see the anticipated results. Market pundits quickly point fingers and determine the Fed, economists, and participants are wrong. Reactions can be powerful in number and sway momentum for stocks and/or bonds.
A bright spot in Chinese investment could spell trouble for its financial institutions.
After a decade of consistent outperformance, Japanese small caps began underperforming their large cap peers in 2018, a trend that has accelerated since 2023.
This week’s data reflects the resilience of the U.S. economy. Currently, the economy is holding steady with jobless claims in the 230,000 range and recent inflation data showing stability. Friday’s inflation report was essentially at expectations and indicates that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will make a rate cut of at least 25 basis points (bps) at the September meeting. Whether the cut is 25 or 50 will depend mostly on this week’s employment report.
The stock market as measured by the S&P 500 is trading at a very high valuation. In this video, Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, a.k.a. Mr. Valuation is going to share 10 extremely high-quality stocks that are not overvalued, and offer good growth and long term total rates of return.
We’ve always admired the great artistry of David Byrne from the Band Talking Heads. My favorite song of theirs is “Once in a Lifetime.” We think this song can tell our readers a great deal about how to look at our portfolio as we navigate an expensive and maniacal S&P 500 Index environment.
Using infographics to illustrate your firm’s financial planning process is a great way to show the value you provide. Whether in your marketing materials, initial consultations, or new client onboarding, these visuals can help set the stage for a successful and growing relationship.
This week I had the chance to run a half-day workshop helping seasoned, successful advisors learn techniques for emerging as strong leaders, so I’ll share some of the information here in this column.
In this edition, Harold Evensky explores the challenges facing sustainable and active funds, the implications of the new DOL Fiduciary Rule, and the value of long-term performance projections. With candid observations and critical analysis--read on to gain perspective on navigating the complex world of investing, the importance of risk management, and the role of fiduciary advisors in securing your financial future.
Successful advisors are persuasive. They understand persuasion is critical to converting prospects into clients and keeping them as clients.
Equity bulls looking for signs of relief after Tuesday’s stock rout may get a hand from a familiar friend: corporate America.
Bond traders are bracing for wilder market swings in the US than in Europe, as signs the world’s largest economy is faltering fuel bets on a jumbo interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve.
The sharp selloff that wiped a record $279 billion off Nvidia Corp.’s market value on Tuesday has traders scouring charts for clues as to where the pain might end.
After a bruising few years, Asian currencies have suddenly become fashionable again. But this enthusiasm is dependent on words and deeds far away. The direction of global markets is driven overwhelmingly by the US. For now, that means interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
There are two radically different visions of our AI future, and they depend on the cost of energy.
A record number of blue-chip firms swarmed the US corporate bond market on Tuesday, taking advantage of cheaper borrowing costs as they look to issue debt ahead of the US presidential election.
The case for infrastructure investment is rising, but so are its costs.
With his Jackson Hole speech, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell all but promised rate cuts were coming. That’s cool. But it is why that matters.
A soft landing for the U.S. economy still appears to be the most likely outcome.
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, a.k.a. Mr. Valuation and Professor Nathan Mauck, Phd. are going to show you our approach to value investing and how stock picking 101 is based on value investing principles and through the use of FAST Graphs! We actually don’t like to start with value, we like to start with fundamentals. Fundamentals first, value second.
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Director and Senior Investment Strategist Alex Cousley and ESG and Active Ownership Analyst Zoe Warganz discussed key takeaways from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
As more Chinese companies get comfortable paying dividends, investors may find new sources of equity return potential.
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 27.2 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 34.9.
The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. The latest Q-ratio is at 1.71, down from 1.77 in July.
Compliance officers in the RIA space feel the pressure of two major business goals. One, we need to help the firm grow. Two, we need to protect the integrity of the business itself and the financial safety of our clients.
You did everything by the book. Your prospect talked and you listened. But listening alone is not enough to build trust.
Few human activities are more central to historiography than war, and yet historians are poorly equipped to understand its evolutionary and psychological roots: Why War? attempts, with only partial success, to close this gap.
Half your coworkers might have just spent August in Europe, but there were no holiday doldrums in the booming world of ETFs.
Cliff Asness says he sounds like an “old man whinging,” but that’s not stopping him from writing 23 pages on his latest thesis: Financial markets these days aren’t what they were.
It’s the story of so many stock market manias: A transformative technology juices a few companies, a bunch of more questionable outfits follow in their wake, and Wall Street buys it all. Then time sorts out what’s real from fake.
Apple Inc.’s upcoming iPhone release has sent its stock price soaring because of promised artificial-intelligence features. Those gains appear vulnerable, at least in the short term, if history is any guide.
Since the pandemic, Wall Street strategists have repeatedly underestimated the performance of the US stock market in their annual projections, leading to a mad dash to boost their outlooks in the back end of the year.
What’s the point of Keir Starmer’s massive electoral majority if he remains hesitant to do something for young people on Brexit that’s not just compassionate and sensible, but also very popular?
After a bit of an early-August swoon, the stock market came roaring back in the last few weeks of the month. The S&P 500 finished up 2.4%, though certainly in the early days of August, that did not feel like a particularly likely outcome. In client conversations a few days into the selloff, our feeling was to stay put and not tinker with the portfolios we suggested in early August.
In our view, stagflation scenarios tend to be worse for balanced portfolios than recessions.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) inched up to 47.2 in August but remains in contraction territory for a fifth straight month. The index has now contracted for 21 of the past 22 months. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of 47.5.
This week saw a nontech giant cross a unique milestone and a tech giant’s earnings report become a Mainstreet sensation.
The August S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ fell to 47.9 in August from 49.6 in July, indicating a modest deterioration in business conditions for a second straight month. The latest reading was just below the forecasted reading of 48.0 and is the index's lowest level of the year.
As noted in this past weekend’s newsletter, following the “Yen Carry Trade” blowup just three weeks ago, the market has quickly reverted to more extreme short-term overbought conditions.
I asked my great friend and business partner David Bahnsen, who is about as politically wired as anyone and one of the truly great economic and investment minds, to reflect on the intersection of politics and markets. It is a quick, balanced, and reasonable read...
Global Markets
LiveCast: Navigating emerging markets: Seizing growth opportunities
Strong returns in US equities over the past decade have led many investors to reduce their allocations to emerging markets equities. Yet, for investors focused on capturing growth, emerging markets may present a new frontier by which to participate in the next wave of global economic evolution. Emerging markets equities can provide exposure to transformative forces such as digitalization, productivity enhancements, shifting cultural norms, and rapid urbanization. These dynamics are not just shaping the future of emerging economies; they are laying the groundwork for growth and innovation.
Hedged Equity: For the Best of Times, for the Worst of Times
Join the experts at Swan Global Investments for an educational webcast on how an active approach to hedged equity can mitigate risk in volatile times and capture growth opportunites.
Americans Have a New Piggy Bank to Raid — Their Houses
American consumers have surprised many economists this year by continuing to spend even as their savings shrink and the labor market cools. They’ve been aided in part by pockets of deflation that have boosted their purchasing power on things such as gasoline, automobiles and airfares.
With Rate Cuts Ahead, Stock Buybacks May Continue
Stock buybacks have boomed in recent years. With corporate cash flows remaining high and potential rate cuts from the Fed, the trend appears set to continue.
Risks Facing Bullish Investors As September Begins
Since the end of the “Yen Carry Trade” correction in August, bullish positioning has returned with a vengeance, yet two key risks face investors as September begins. While bullish positioning and optimism are ingredients for a rising market, there is more to this story.
This Active ETF Is Beating SPY Over Multiple Time Frames
Shopping around for an active ETF? This strategy has outperformed SPY recently thanks to its ability to over- or underweight certain stocks.
The Time Has Come
We are entering a time I think will include a deep crisis. We are going to need each other. We really do need to “find our tribe.”
Higher ETF Inflows Could Benefit Corporate Bond Funds
ETFs saw a record number of inflows in August, including bond-focused funds, which are offering opportunities in corporate debt.
The Yield Curve Inversion Just Ended, but Economic Risks Remain
The U.S. economy may be heading into choppy waters, and investors might be wise to buckle up.
Health Check: How Is the U.S. Economy Holding Up?
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Investment Strategist BeiChen Lin assessed the state of the economy, including the health of the services and manufacturing sectors, and the likelihood of a big rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.
High-Yield Opportunity Persists, Despite Tight Spreads
High-yield investors put off by today’s narrow spreads could be missing out.
Fed Rate Cuts Coming in September: What’s Next?
The main focus for investors should is no longer if the Fed will cut rates in 2024, but how much and how quickly the Fed will lower interest rates.
Back to School: Macro Cliff Notes and a Look Ahead
Recent growth data have been muddled and subject to conflicting interpretations. There have been mixed signals from leading indicators and hard data and divergent readings across major economies.
Summers Says Jobs Weakness Makes It Closer Call on Fed Going 50
Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said that while the August employment report wasn’t particularly poor, it did make predicting the size of the Federal Reserve’s likely interest-rate cut this month a tougher call.
Amundi Tie-Up Offers US Private Credit to Wealthy Individuals
Amundi SA and First Eagle Investment Management are looking to raise as much as $5 billion for a new private credit strategy that will offer wealthy individuals in Europe, the Middle East and Asia access to private loans made to mid-size US companies.
Smart Investing with Dividend Growth Stocks: Research-Driven Principles
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, a.k.a. Mr. Valuation and Professor Nathan Mauck, Phd. are going to talk about how to approach dividend growth stocks-focusing on the health of the dividend, the growth of the dividend. Smart investing with research-driven principles.
Nvidia’s $400 Billion Tumble This Week Makes Bitcoin Look Calm
Nvidia Corp. has wiped out more than $400 billion in value this week, weighing on key equity benchmarks as jitters spread over the health of the US economy and an AI trade that may have gotten ahead of itself.
August’s PMI Underscores Need for Active Management
As market sensitivity to economic data continues, investors would do well to consider active strategies amidst ongoing volatility.
Blue-Chip Company Debt Deluge Hits Record Two-Day Streak
After two days of record sales in the US blue-chip corporate debt market, another 11 companies are looking to sell bonds on Thursday, and demand for the securities is holding strong by key measures.
Voters Love No Tax on Tips, But Split Over $25,000 Housing Help
Former President Donald Trump’s proposals for targeted tax breaks are resonating with battleground-state voters, who overwhelmingly approve of his ideas to eliminate taxes on tipped income and retirement benefits.
Big Fed Rate Cuts Are Needed for the Young and the Jobless
Despite what you may have heard from the doomers, the US labor market is hardly falling apart at the seams. Layoffs are still extraordinarily low and a report Friday showed that the overall unemployment rate slipped to just 4.2%.
Volatility Strikes in September: Our Thoughts
We think the decline in the S&P 500 Index on Tuesday may be more technical than fundamental.
Portable Alpha: Divorcing and Remarrying Alpha and Beta
The concept of portable alpha is over 40 years old. And while it has evolved through various forms over that time, it continues to be a valuable portfolio tool for institutional investors. Arguably, the most popular iteration right now is adding alpha expected from hedge funds on top of synthetic beta exposure.
Why Now & How: 3 ETF Ways to Access Gold Ahead of Rate Move
Gold is typically an asset that doesn’t generate yield, but there are ETFs that deliver yield on a gold position through options.
Treasury Yields Snapshot: September 6, 2024
The yield on the 10-year note ended September 6, 2024 at 3.72%, the 2-year note ended at 3.66%, and the 30-year at 4.03%.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: August Employment
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of those indicators, nonfarm employment. August saw a 142,000 increase in total nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment fell to 4.2%.
Employment Report: 142K Jobs Added in August, Less Than Expected
The latest employment report showed 142,000 jobs were added in August, falling short of the expected addition of 164,000 new jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked lower to 4.2%.
OPEC+ Kicks the Can Down a Very Uphill Road
OPEC+ is like a teabag – it only works in hot water. The late Robert Mabro, one of the savviest oil-market observers, liked to say the cartel only got the job done when it was under prolonged financial pain. To judge by its latest actions, OPEC+ has yet to realize it’s inside a warming kettle.
Why Singapore Is Bringing Blockchain Into Mutual Funds
Most people see “blockchain” and “funds” in the same sentence and immediately think of pools of money betting on cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ether. That isn’t how Singapore sees the utility of distributed ledgers.
US Job Growth Comes Up Short in Possible Warning Sign for Fed
US hiring fell short of forecasts in August after downward revisions to the prior two months, a development likely to fuel ongoing debate over how much the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates.
Traders Add to Bets on Jumbo Fed Cuts as Data Fuels Bond Rally
US Treasuries gained and traders ramped up their bets that the Federal Reserve will opt for a supersized interest-rate cut this month after a mixed report on the US labor market.
BlackRock Dials Back Risk Across $131 Billion Model Portfolios
The world’s biggest asset manager is taking some chips off the table as markets enter a “new phase” of turbulence ahead of a Federal Reserve interest rate cutting cycle and the US presidential election.
Japanese Style Policies And The Future Of America
In a recent discussion with Adam Taggart via Thoughtful Money, we quickly touched on the similarities between the U.S. and Japanese monetary policies around the 11-minute mark. However, that discussion warrants a deeper dive. As we will review, Japan has much to tell us about the future of the U.S. economically.
Musings on the Money Supply
Money can still be a factor in inflation.
The 2024 US Election and Municipal Bonds: What to Know
Candidate tax policies could affect municipal bonds, but the bigger picture is important too.
Inflation Now Taking a Back Seat
With Labor Day now in the rearview mirror, the money and bond markets will no doubt become laser focused on the September FOMC meeting. Yes, Fed Chair Powell telegraphed that a rate cut is forthcoming, but he also emphasized how monetary policy is still data dependent.
Navigating Financial Aid: New FAFSA Rules and Tips for Families
Recent changes to the FAFSA form and process include a simpler form, fewer questions and a revised eligibility formula. Our Bill Cass highlights what you need to know to apply for federal financial aid for college.
Maintain Your Investment Strategy During Election Years
Presidential elections tend to have limited impact on market performance, regardless of party win (although markets prefer Democratic switches). Investors should capitalize on the uptick in market volatility, which investors can use for strategic investing.
Two in the Bush: Still Time to Lock in Long-Term Rates
We often write about the opportunity for fixed income investors to lock in relatively attractive long-term rates. And we would argue that investment consultants and financial advisors have no more important charge than to convince their clients to take advantage of this while they still can.
Can ETFs Capture Private Equity Markets?
Private assets are the fastest-growing market in the financial world, but could be the most challenging field for ETF providers to penetrate.
Rate Cuts Could Stoke Dividend Stock Renaissance
High interest rates have had the predictable effect of restraining the performances of dividend stocks and related exchange traded funds.
ISM Services PMI Expanded for Second Straight Month in August
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has released its August services purchasing managers' index (PMI). The headline composite index is at 51.5, slightly better than the forecast. The latest reading moves the index back into expansion territory for 48th time in the past 50 months.
Volatility Cocktail
The Federal Reserve is creating the potential for extreme bouts of volatility surrounded economic data releases.
S&P 500 Earnings Hinge on Trump, Harris Tax Plans, Goldman Says
Tax policies touted in the US presidential election could have a big impact on S&P 500 earnings, according to Goldman Sachs Inc. strategists.
Wall Street’s Big Bet on Jumbo Fed Cuts Hangs on US Jobs Report
The bold bet from the likes of Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. that the Federal Reserve will slash interest rates by a half-percentage-point this month faces its biggest test yet from Friday’s US jobs report.
American Drivers Signal a Top in Gasoline Demand
Labor Day weekend, marking the end of the US summer driving season, is typically the year’s last hurrah for gasoline producers. This year, the high-fives were reserved for drivers (and White House occupants): The average pre-long weekend pump price was down 13% from last year after gasoline refining margins collapsed in August. Pump prices have eased further this week.
Fed Rate Cuts Give Higher Probability of the Great Rotation Occurring
Despite pullbacks and elevated volatility in the earlier days of the month, major equity indices were up in August.
Jane Street and Citadel Won’t Devour All of Wall Street’s Revenue
Jane Street Group LLC and Citadel Securities are on a tear. First-half revenue at the two predominantly electronic market makers grew about 80% compared with the first six months of 2023, according to Bloomberg News. That’s enough to make traditional Wall Street executives green with envy — but these upstarts aren’t going to completely devour the old guards’ lunch.
US Yield Curve Disinverts as Soft Labor Data Fuels Fed Cut Bets
A key segment of the US Treasury yield curve briefly turned positive as weaker-than-anticipated labor-market data bolstered bets on steep interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
It's Time … For a Fed Pivot
Investors should be careful what they wish for in hoping for an aggressive Fed rate cutting cycle, given stocks tend to do better when cuts are slow and steady.
A Slow Moving Economic Cycle
When we’re viewing markets, it’s not surprising sentiment shifts quickly if we don’t instantly see the anticipated results. Market pundits quickly point fingers and determine the Fed, economists, and participants are wrong. Reactions can be powerful in number and sway momentum for stocks and/or bonds.
China’s Bond Market Rally
A bright spot in Chinese investment could spell trouble for its financial institutions.
Small Wonders: Overlooked Japan Small Caps Poised for Resurgence
After a decade of consistent outperformance, Japanese small caps began underperforming their large cap peers in 2018, a trend that has accelerated since 2023.
A Careful Recalibration Needed
This week’s data reflects the resilience of the U.S. economy. Currently, the economy is holding steady with jobless claims in the 230,000 range and recent inflation data showing stability. Friday’s inflation report was essentially at expectations and indicates that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will make a rate cut of at least 25 basis points (bps) at the September meeting. Whether the cut is 25 or 50 will depend mostly on this week’s employment report.
Market Overvalued? 10 Growth Stocks That Aren’t!
The stock market as measured by the S&P 500 is trading at a very high valuation. In this video, Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, a.k.a. Mr. Valuation is going to share 10 extremely high-quality stocks that are not overvalued, and offer good growth and long term total rates of return.
Same as it Ever Was
We’ve always admired the great artistry of David Byrne from the Band Talking Heads. My favorite song of theirs is “Once in a Lifetime.” We think this song can tell our readers a great deal about how to look at our portfolio as we navigate an expensive and maniacal S&P 500 Index environment.
Showcase Your Value With Financial Planning Process Infographics
Using infographics to illustrate your firm’s financial planning process is a great way to show the value you provide. Whether in your marketing materials, initial consultations, or new client onboarding, these visuals can help set the stage for a successful and growing relationship.
What Every Leader Should Understand
This week I had the chance to run a half-day workshop helping seasoned, successful advisors learn techniques for emerging as strong leaders, so I’ll share some of the information here in this column.
Navigating the Investment Landscape: Insights and Warnings
In this edition, Harold Evensky explores the challenges facing sustainable and active funds, the implications of the new DOL Fiduciary Rule, and the value of long-term performance projections. With candid observations and critical analysis--read on to gain perspective on navigating the complex world of investing, the importance of risk management, and the role of fiduciary advisors in securing your financial future.
Evidence-Based Persuasion Secrets
Successful advisors are persuasive. They understand persuasion is critical to converting prospects into clients and keeping them as clients.
Would-Be Corporate Dip Buyers Armed With Fresh $107 Billion
Equity bulls looking for signs of relief after Tuesday’s stock rout may get a hand from a familiar friend: corporate America.
Bond Volatility in US Eclipses Europe as Recession Angst Rises
Bond traders are bracing for wilder market swings in the US than in Europe, as signs the world’s largest economy is faltering fuel bets on a jumbo interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve.
Nvidia Rout Has Traders Watching $100-Share Level Amid ‘Vacuum’
The sharp selloff that wiped a record $279 billion off Nvidia Corp.’s market value on Tuesday has traders scouring charts for clues as to where the pain might end.
The Fed Is Containing Yuan Bears. That’s Ironic
After a bruising few years, Asian currencies have suddenly become fashionable again. But this enthusiasm is dependent on words and deeds far away. The direction of global markets is driven overwhelmingly by the US. For now, that means interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
AI Culture Will Be Weirder Than You Can Imagine
There are two radically different visions of our AI future, and they depend on the cost of energy.
Firms Pile Into Bond Market in Busiest Day on Record
A record number of blue-chip firms swarmed the US corporate bond market on Tuesday, taking advantage of cheaper borrowing costs as they look to issue debt ahead of the US presidential election.
Reinforcing Economic Foundations
The case for infrastructure investment is rising, but so are its costs.
Navigating Earnings Season: Tailwinds of Tomorrow
With his Jackson Hole speech, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell all but promised rate cuts were coming. That’s cool. But it is why that matters.
August Sees Markets Close Strong After Tough Start
A soft landing for the U.S. economy still appears to be the most likely outcome.
Stock Picking 101 How We Find Hidden Value
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, a.k.a. Mr. Valuation and Professor Nathan Mauck, Phd. are going to show you our approach to value investing and how stock picking 101 is based on value investing principles and through the use of FAST Graphs! We actually don’t like to start with value, we like to start with fundamentals. Fundamentals first, value second.
Key Highlights From Q2 Earnings Season Around the Globe
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Director and Senior Investment Strategist Alex Cousley and ESG and Active Ownership Analyst Zoe Warganz discussed key takeaways from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
Chinese Equities: How Investors Can Unlock the Power of Dividends
As more Chinese companies get comfortable paying dividends, investors may find new sources of equity return potential.
P/E10 and Market Valuation: August 2024
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 27.2 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 34.9.
Q-Ratio and Market Valuation: August 2024
The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. The latest Q-ratio is at 1.71, down from 1.77 in July.
Is Your RIA Unifying Compliance Integrity and Business Goals?
Compliance officers in the RIA space feel the pressure of two major business goals. One, we need to help the firm grow. Two, we need to protect the integrity of the business itself and the financial safety of our clients.
Listening Is Not Enough to Make the Sale
You did everything by the book. Your prospect talked and you listened. But listening alone is not enough to build trust.
The Problem with Human Beings
Few human activities are more central to historiography than war, and yet historians are poorly equipped to understand its evolutionary and psychological roots: Why War? attempts, with only partial success, to close this gap.
Sizzling ETF Flows in Manic Markets Fuel a $609 Billion Haul
Half your coworkers might have just spent August in Europe, but there were no holiday doldrums in the booming world of ETFs.
Cliff Asness Is ‘Old Man Whinging’ as Markets Get Less Efficient
Cliff Asness says he sounds like an “old man whinging,” but that’s not stopping him from writing 23 pages on his latest thesis: Financial markets these days aren’t what they were.
Shorts Are Circling Some of the AI Boom’s Biggest Question Marks
It’s the story of so many stock market manias: A transformative technology juices a few companies, a bunch of more questionable outfits follow in their wake, and Wall Street buys it all. Then time sorts out what’s real from fake.
Apple Rally Fueled by AI Promises Approaches a Crucial Test
Apple Inc.’s upcoming iPhone release has sent its stock price soaring because of promised artificial-intelligence features. Those gains appear vulnerable, at least in the short term, if history is any guide.
Wall Street Strategists Face Their Own Short Squeeze
Since the pandemic, Wall Street strategists have repeatedly underestimated the performance of the US stock market in their annual projections, leading to a mad dash to boost their outlooks in the back end of the year.
Yes, Let’s Reverse Brexit (a Bit) for Gen Z
What’s the point of Keir Starmer’s massive electoral majority if he remains hesitant to do something for young people on Brexit that’s not just compassionate and sensible, but also very popular?
Quant Street September 2024 Investor Letter: All Eyes on the Fed
After a bit of an early-August swoon, the stock market came roaring back in the last few weeks of the month. The S&P 500 finished up 2.4%, though certainly in the early days of August, that did not feel like a particularly likely outcome. In client conversations a few days into the selloff, our feeling was to stay put and not tinker with the portfolios we suggested in early August.
Stagflation vs. Recession
In our view, stagflation scenarios tend to be worse for balanced portfolios than recessions.
ISM Manufacturing Index Contracts for 5th Straight Month
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) inched up to 47.2 in August but remains in contraction territory for a fifth straight month. The index has now contracted for 21 of the past 22 months. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of 47.5.
Berkshire Hathaway vs Nvidia: The Battle Between Value & Growth
This week saw a nontech giant cross a unique milestone and a tech giant’s earnings report become a Mainstreet sensation.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Lowest Level of 2024
The August S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ fell to 47.9 in August from 49.6 in July, indicating a modest deterioration in business conditions for a second straight month. The latest reading was just below the forecasted reading of 48.0 and is the index's lowest level of the year.
Overbought Conditions Set Up Short-Term Correction
As noted in this past weekend’s newsletter, following the “Yen Carry Trade” blowup just three weeks ago, the market has quickly reverted to more extreme short-term overbought conditions.
Your Portfolio and the Election
I asked my great friend and business partner David Bahnsen, who is about as politically wired as anyone and one of the truly great economic and investment minds, to reflect on the intersection of politics and markets. It is a quick, balanced, and reasonable read...