This half-day symposium brings the brightest minds in the ETF and mutual fund industry together for panel discussions spanning critical fixed income topics.
Join the experts at VettaFi and KraneShares for an in-depth exploration of the generative AI space and learn how you can set your portfolio up to capture the potential of this exciting new technology.
Gold is seeing record prices, and while exposure to gold can be useful to a portfolio, it could behoove some investors to look at gold miners instead. Gold miners are well positioned to capitalize on the recent surge in interest in gold.
Join the experts at REX Shares for a free educational webcast and learn all about gold and gold miners.
In the coming Q4 Preview Symposium, investors will learn how they can best prepare for a host of possibilities and set up their portfolios to take advantage of opportunities and understand which areas of the market will face higher-than-normal risk.
Join the experts at Xtrackers by DWS for an educational webcast and gain insights into the most pressing questions on AI investing.
Join the experts at Swan Global Investments for an educational webcast on how an active approach to hedged equity can mitigate risk in volatile times and capture growth opportunites.
American consumers have surprised many economists this year by continuing to spend even as their savings shrink and the labor market cools. They’ve been aided in part by pockets of deflation that have boosted their purchasing power on things such as gasoline, automobiles and airfares.
Stock buybacks have boomed in recent years. With corporate cash flows remaining high and potential rate cuts from the Fed, the trend appears set to continue.
Since the end of the “Yen Carry Trade” correction in August, bullish positioning has returned with a vengeance, yet two key risks face investors as September begins. While bullish positioning and optimism are ingredients for a rising market, there is more to this story.
We are entering a time I think will include a deep crisis. We are going to need each other. We really do need to “find our tribe.”
ETFs saw a record number of inflows in August, including bond-focused funds, which are offering opportunities in corporate debt.
The U.S. economy may be heading into choppy waters, and investors might be wise to buckle up.
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Investment Strategist BeiChen Lin assessed the state of the economy, including the health of the services and manufacturing sectors, and the likelihood of a big rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.
High-yield investors put off by today’s narrow spreads could be missing out.
The main focus for investors should is no longer if the Fed will cut rates in 2024, but how much and how quickly the Fed will lower interest rates.
Recent growth data have been muddled and subject to conflicting interpretations. There have been mixed signals from leading indicators and hard data and divergent readings across major economies.
Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said that while the August employment report wasn’t particularly poor, it did make predicting the size of the Federal Reserve’s likely interest-rate cut this month a tougher call.
Amundi SA and First Eagle Investment Management are looking to raise as much as $5 billion for a new private credit strategy that will offer wealthy individuals in Europe, the Middle East and Asia access to private loans made to mid-size US companies.
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, a.k.a. Mr. Valuation and Professor Nathan Mauck, Phd. are going to talk about how to approach dividend growth stocks-focusing on the health of the dividend, the growth of the dividend. Smart investing with research-driven principles.
Nvidia Corp. has wiped out more than $400 billion in value this week, weighing on key equity benchmarks as jitters spread over the health of the US economy and an AI trade that may have gotten ahead of itself.
After two days of record sales in the US blue-chip corporate debt market, another 11 companies are looking to sell bonds on Thursday, and demand for the securities is holding strong by key measures.
We think the decline in the S&P 500 Index on Tuesday may be more technical than fundamental.
The concept of portable alpha is over 40 years old. And while it has evolved through various forms over that time, it continues to be a valuable portfolio tool for institutional investors. Arguably, the most popular iteration right now is adding alpha expected from hedge funds on top of synthetic beta exposure.
Gold is typically an asset that doesn’t generate yield, but there are ETFs that deliver yield on a gold position through options.
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of those indicators, nonfarm employment. August saw a 142,000 increase in total nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment fell to 4.2%.
US Treasuries gained and traders ramped up their bets that the Federal Reserve will opt for a supersized interest-rate cut this month after a mixed report on the US labor market.
In a recent discussion with Adam Taggart via Thoughtful Money, we quickly touched on the similarities between the U.S. and Japanese monetary policies around the 11-minute mark. However, that discussion warrants a deeper dive. As we will review, Japan has much to tell us about the future of the U.S. economically.
Money can still be a factor in inflation.
Candidate tax policies could affect municipal bonds, but the bigger picture is important too.
With Labor Day now in the rearview mirror, the money and bond markets will no doubt become laser focused on the September FOMC meeting. Yes, Fed Chair Powell telegraphed that a rate cut is forthcoming, but he also emphasized how monetary policy is still data dependent.
Recent changes to the FAFSA form and process include a simpler form, fewer questions and a revised eligibility formula. Our Bill Cass highlights what you need to know to apply for federal financial aid for college.
Presidential elections tend to have limited impact on market performance, regardless of party win (although markets prefer Democratic switches). Investors should capitalize on the uptick in market volatility, which investors can use for strategic investing.
We often write about the opportunity for fixed income investors to lock in relatively attractive long-term rates. And we would argue that investment consultants and financial advisors have no more important charge than to convince their clients to take advantage of this while they still can.
High interest rates have had the predictable effect of restraining the performances of dividend stocks and related exchange traded funds.
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has released its August services purchasing managers' index (PMI). The headline composite index is at 51.5, slightly better than the forecast. The latest reading moves the index back into expansion territory for 48th time in the past 50 months.
In the week ending August 31st, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 227,000, falling to a two-month low. This represents a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's figure and is better than the 231,000 economists were expecting.
Join the experts at VictoryShares and learn all about two strategies that leverage an innovative free cash flow investment approach that may help to align your portfolio for potential success.
The Federal Reserve is creating the potential for extreme bouts of volatility surrounded economic data releases.
The bold bet from the likes of Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. that the Federal Reserve will slash interest rates by a half-percentage-point this month faces its biggest test yet from Friday’s US jobs report.
Labor Day weekend, marking the end of the US summer driving season, is typically the year’s last hurrah for gasoline producers. This year, the high-fives were reserved for drivers (and White House occupants): The average pre-long weekend pump price was down 13% from last year after gasoline refining margins collapsed in August. Pump prices have eased further this week.
Despite pullbacks and elevated volatility in the earlier days of the month, major equity indices were up in August.
A key segment of the US Treasury yield curve briefly turned positive as weaker-than-anticipated labor-market data bolstered bets on steep interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Investors should be careful what they wish for in hoping for an aggressive Fed rate cutting cycle, given stocks tend to do better when cuts are slow and steady.
When we’re viewing markets, it’s not surprising sentiment shifts quickly if we don’t instantly see the anticipated results. Market pundits quickly point fingers and determine the Fed, economists, and participants are wrong. Reactions can be powerful in number and sway momentum for stocks and/or bonds.
A bright spot in Chinese investment could spell trouble for its financial institutions.
After a decade of consistent outperformance, Japanese small caps began underperforming their large cap peers in 2018, a trend that has accelerated since 2023.
The stock market as measured by the S&P 500 is trading at a very high valuation. In this video, Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, a.k.a. Mr. Valuation is going to share 10 extremely high-quality stocks that are not overvalued, and offer good growth and long term total rates of return.
We’ve always admired the great artistry of David Byrne from the Band Talking Heads. My favorite song of theirs is “Once in a Lifetime.” We think this song can tell our readers a great deal about how to look at our portfolio as we navigate an expensive and maniacal S&P 500 Index environment.
In this edition, Harold Evensky explores the challenges facing sustainable and active funds, the implications of the new DOL Fiduciary Rule, and the value of long-term performance projections. With candid observations and critical analysis--read on to gain perspective on navigating the complex world of investing, the importance of risk management, and the role of fiduciary advisors in securing your financial future.
Successful advisors are persuasive. They understand persuasion is critical to converting prospects into clients and keeping them as clients.
The sharp selloff that wiped a record $279 billion off Nvidia Corp.’s market value on Tuesday has traders scouring charts for clues as to where the pain might end.
The case for infrastructure investment is rising, but so are its costs.
With his Jackson Hole speech, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell all but promised rate cuts were coming. That’s cool. But it is why that matters.
A soft landing for the U.S. economy still appears to be the most likely outcome.
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, a.k.a. Mr. Valuation and Professor Nathan Mauck, Phd. are going to show you our approach to value investing and how stock picking 101 is based on value investing principles and through the use of FAST Graphs! We actually don’t like to start with value, we like to start with fundamentals. Fundamentals first, value second.
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Director and Senior Investment Strategist Alex Cousley and ESG and Active Ownership Analyst Zoe Warganz discussed key takeaways from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
As more Chinese companies get comfortable paying dividends, investors may find new sources of equity return potential.
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the August 2024 close.
With the Q2 GDP second estimate and the August close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 194.9%, down from 197.4% the previous quarter.
Based on the August S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E of 38.6 is 156% above its arithmetic mean, 179% above its geometric mean, and is at the 99th percentile of this 14-plus-decade series.
The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. The latest Q-ratio is at 1.71, down from 1.77 in July.
Half your coworkers might have just spent August in Europe, but there were no holiday doldrums in the booming world of ETFs.
Cliff Asness says he sounds like an “old man whinging,” but that’s not stopping him from writing 23 pages on his latest thesis: Financial markets these days aren’t what they were.
It’s the story of so many stock market manias: A transformative technology juices a few companies, a bunch of more questionable outfits follow in their wake, and Wall Street buys it all. Then time sorts out what’s real from fake.
Apple Inc.’s upcoming iPhone release has sent its stock price soaring because of promised artificial-intelligence features. Those gains appear vulnerable, at least in the short term, if history is any guide.
Since the pandemic, Wall Street strategists have repeatedly underestimated the performance of the US stock market in their annual projections, leading to a mad dash to boost their outlooks in the back end of the year.
After a bit of an early-August swoon, the stock market came roaring back in the last few weeks of the month. The S&P 500 finished up 2.4%, though certainly in the early days of August, that did not feel like a particularly likely outcome. In client conversations a few days into the selloff, our feeling was to stay put and not tinker with the portfolios we suggested in early August.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) inched up to 47.2 in August but remains in contraction territory for a fifth straight month. The index has now contracted for 21 of the past 22 months. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of 47.5.
This week saw a nontech giant cross a unique milestone and a tech giant’s earnings report become a Mainstreet sensation.
The August S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ fell to 47.9 in August from 49.6 in July, indicating a modest deterioration in business conditions for a second straight month. The latest reading was just below the forecasted reading of 48.0 and is the index's lowest level of the year.
As noted in this past weekend’s newsletter, following the “Yen Carry Trade” blowup just three weeks ago, the market has quickly reverted to more extreme short-term overbought conditions.
I asked my great friend and business partner David Bahnsen, who is about as politically wired as anyone and one of the truly great economic and investment minds, to reflect on the intersection of politics and markets. It is a quick, balanced, and reasonable read...
As I write this, gold continues to trade above $2,500 an ounce after surging past the psychologically important level for the first time ever in mid-August. For seasoned gold mining investors, this should be a moment of validation. After all, the yellow metal has long been seen as the ultimate hedge against economic uncertainty.
Seven of our eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through August 30th, 2024. The U.S.'s S&P 500 finished in the top spot with a year-to-date gain of 19.09%. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 finished in second with a year-to-date gain of 15.49% while India's BSE SENSEX finished in third with a year-to-date gain of 14.57%.
The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of August 23rd, the index was at 24.827, down 1.545 from the previous week, with 4 of the 6 components in expansion territory.
A number of myths exist about value investing as it pertains to timing the economic cycle, interest rates, and elections.
Establishing the optimal workplace retirement plan follows a pecking order, which starts by prioritizing plan design over investments. Our Mike Dullaghan discusses the process.
Valid until the market close on September 30, 2024
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
Consumer attitudes are measured by two monthly surveys: the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). In August, the MCSI rose for the first time in 5 months, inching up to 67.94. Meanwhile, the CCI increased to 103.3, its highest level in 6 months.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.32% in July and is up 4.1% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.16% month-over-month and up 1.6% year-over-year.
Consumer sentiment rose for the first time in five months, according to the final August report for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The index rose 1.5 points (2.3%) from July's final reading to 67.9. The latest reading was above the forecast of 67.8.
The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index (Chicago Business Barometer) edged up to 46.1 in August from 45.3 in July. The latest reading is better than the 45.0 forecast but keeps the index in contraction territory for a ninth straight month.
With the release of July's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.21% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.06% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 3.09% nominal and 0.58% real.
When you see that behavior at extreme valuations, it tends to be a sign of underlying skittishness and risk aversion. When valuations are setting record extremes because the news can’t get any better, even a slightly less optimistic outlook becomes a risk.
China's economic transformation presents both challenges and opportunities for global markets.
Forecasting anything, let alone something as complicated as the economy, is fraught. Stretches of decent growth and low inflation that look, in retrospect, like happy days, can be upended by unforeseen events. Covid, the descent into recession and the sharp rebound are just a few examples. Errors, unfortunately, are an unavoidable part of trying to map the future.
The late Jack Bogle — father of the first index fund — famously loathed their exchange-traded offspring, warning that it only incentivize speculative trading among “fruitcakes, nut cases and lunatic fringe.” Fast forward to 2024, and critics warn a new generation of ETFs are designed to do exactly that.
Many recent studies have been done on the economics of different generations. Researchers want to know if Millennials and Gen Z are in fact worse off than their Boomer and Gen X parents. There are quite a few ways to look at this data.
When global equity markets tumbled in early August, investors got a glimpse of what a deeper correction could like for the US giants, and it wasn’t pretty. The so-called Magnificent Seven have dominated US and global equity market returns since late 2022—and valuations have soared—as earnings growth rebounded and on expectations that they will be the big winners from artificial intelligence (AI).
College students may want to secure legal documents to ensure their parents can access important information and help them in medical emergencies. Our Bill Cass highlights the key documents students can prepare before leaving for college.
Smart Beta
Q4 Fixed Income Symposium
This half-day symposium brings the brightest minds in the ETF and mutual fund industry together for panel discussions spanning critical fixed income topics.
Understanding the AI Ecosystem & Investment Opportunity
Join the experts at VettaFi and KraneShares for an in-depth exploration of the generative AI space and learn how you can set your portfolio up to capture the potential of this exciting new technology.
Unlocking Gold's Potential: Trading Strategies for Q4
Gold is seeing record prices, and while exposure to gold can be useful to a portfolio, it could behoove some investors to look at gold miners instead. Gold miners are well positioned to capitalize on the recent surge in interest in gold.
Join the experts at REX Shares for a free educational webcast and learn all about gold and gold miners.
Q4 Equity Symposium
In the coming Q4 Preview Symposium, investors will learn how they can best prepare for a host of possibilities and set up their portfolios to take advantage of opportunities and understand which areas of the market will face higher-than-normal risk.
The Next Phase of AI Investing
Join the experts at Xtrackers by DWS for an educational webcast and gain insights into the most pressing questions on AI investing.
Hedged Equity: For the Best of Times, for the Worst of Times
Join the experts at Swan Global Investments for an educational webcast on how an active approach to hedged equity can mitigate risk in volatile times and capture growth opportunites.
Americans Have a New Piggy Bank to Raid — Their Houses
American consumers have surprised many economists this year by continuing to spend even as their savings shrink and the labor market cools. They’ve been aided in part by pockets of deflation that have boosted their purchasing power on things such as gasoline, automobiles and airfares.
With Rate Cuts Ahead, Stock Buybacks May Continue
Stock buybacks have boomed in recent years. With corporate cash flows remaining high and potential rate cuts from the Fed, the trend appears set to continue.
Risks Facing Bullish Investors As September Begins
Since the end of the “Yen Carry Trade” correction in August, bullish positioning has returned with a vengeance, yet two key risks face investors as September begins. While bullish positioning and optimism are ingredients for a rising market, there is more to this story.
The Time Has Come
We are entering a time I think will include a deep crisis. We are going to need each other. We really do need to “find our tribe.”
Higher ETF Inflows Could Benefit Corporate Bond Funds
ETFs saw a record number of inflows in August, including bond-focused funds, which are offering opportunities in corporate debt.
The Yield Curve Inversion Just Ended, but Economic Risks Remain
The U.S. economy may be heading into choppy waters, and investors might be wise to buckle up.
Health Check: How Is the U.S. Economy Holding Up?
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Investment Strategist BeiChen Lin assessed the state of the economy, including the health of the services and manufacturing sectors, and the likelihood of a big rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.
High-Yield Opportunity Persists, Despite Tight Spreads
High-yield investors put off by today’s narrow spreads could be missing out.
Fed Rate Cuts Coming in September: What’s Next?
The main focus for investors should is no longer if the Fed will cut rates in 2024, but how much and how quickly the Fed will lower interest rates.
Back to School: Macro Cliff Notes and a Look Ahead
Recent growth data have been muddled and subject to conflicting interpretations. There have been mixed signals from leading indicators and hard data and divergent readings across major economies.
Summers Says Jobs Weakness Makes It Closer Call on Fed Going 50
Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said that while the August employment report wasn’t particularly poor, it did make predicting the size of the Federal Reserve’s likely interest-rate cut this month a tougher call.
Amundi Tie-Up Offers US Private Credit to Wealthy Individuals
Amundi SA and First Eagle Investment Management are looking to raise as much as $5 billion for a new private credit strategy that will offer wealthy individuals in Europe, the Middle East and Asia access to private loans made to mid-size US companies.
Smart Investing with Dividend Growth Stocks: Research-Driven Principles
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, a.k.a. Mr. Valuation and Professor Nathan Mauck, Phd. are going to talk about how to approach dividend growth stocks-focusing on the health of the dividend, the growth of the dividend. Smart investing with research-driven principles.
Nvidia’s $400 Billion Tumble This Week Makes Bitcoin Look Calm
Nvidia Corp. has wiped out more than $400 billion in value this week, weighing on key equity benchmarks as jitters spread over the health of the US economy and an AI trade that may have gotten ahead of itself.
Blue-Chip Company Debt Deluge Hits Record Two-Day Streak
After two days of record sales in the US blue-chip corporate debt market, another 11 companies are looking to sell bonds on Thursday, and demand for the securities is holding strong by key measures.
Volatility Strikes in September: Our Thoughts
We think the decline in the S&P 500 Index on Tuesday may be more technical than fundamental.
Portable Alpha: Divorcing and Remarrying Alpha and Beta
The concept of portable alpha is over 40 years old. And while it has evolved through various forms over that time, it continues to be a valuable portfolio tool for institutional investors. Arguably, the most popular iteration right now is adding alpha expected from hedge funds on top of synthetic beta exposure.
Why Now & How: 3 ETF Ways to Access Gold Ahead of Rate Move
Gold is typically an asset that doesn’t generate yield, but there are ETFs that deliver yield on a gold position through options.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: August Employment
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of those indicators, nonfarm employment. August saw a 142,000 increase in total nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment fell to 4.2%.
Traders Add to Bets on Jumbo Fed Cuts as Data Fuels Bond Rally
US Treasuries gained and traders ramped up their bets that the Federal Reserve will opt for a supersized interest-rate cut this month after a mixed report on the US labor market.
Japanese Style Policies And The Future Of America
In a recent discussion with Adam Taggart via Thoughtful Money, we quickly touched on the similarities between the U.S. and Japanese monetary policies around the 11-minute mark. However, that discussion warrants a deeper dive. As we will review, Japan has much to tell us about the future of the U.S. economically.
Musings on the Money Supply
Money can still be a factor in inflation.
The 2024 US Election and Municipal Bonds: What to Know
Candidate tax policies could affect municipal bonds, but the bigger picture is important too.
Inflation Now Taking a Back Seat
With Labor Day now in the rearview mirror, the money and bond markets will no doubt become laser focused on the September FOMC meeting. Yes, Fed Chair Powell telegraphed that a rate cut is forthcoming, but he also emphasized how monetary policy is still data dependent.
Navigating Financial Aid: New FAFSA Rules and Tips for Families
Recent changes to the FAFSA form and process include a simpler form, fewer questions and a revised eligibility formula. Our Bill Cass highlights what you need to know to apply for federal financial aid for college.
Maintain Your Investment Strategy During Election Years
Presidential elections tend to have limited impact on market performance, regardless of party win (although markets prefer Democratic switches). Investors should capitalize on the uptick in market volatility, which investors can use for strategic investing.
Two in the Bush: Still Time to Lock in Long-Term Rates
We often write about the opportunity for fixed income investors to lock in relatively attractive long-term rates. And we would argue that investment consultants and financial advisors have no more important charge than to convince their clients to take advantage of this while they still can.
Rate Cuts Could Stoke Dividend Stock Renaissance
High interest rates have had the predictable effect of restraining the performances of dividend stocks and related exchange traded funds.
ISM Services PMI Expanded for Second Straight Month in August
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has released its August services purchasing managers' index (PMI). The headline composite index is at 51.5, slightly better than the forecast. The latest reading moves the index back into expansion territory for 48th time in the past 50 months.
Unemployment Claims Down 5K, Better Than Expected
In the week ending August 31st, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 227,000, falling to a two-month low. This represents a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's figure and is better than the 231,000 economists were expecting.
The Next Generation of Free Cash Flow Investing
Join the experts at VictoryShares and learn all about two strategies that leverage an innovative free cash flow investment approach that may help to align your portfolio for potential success.
Volatility Cocktail
The Federal Reserve is creating the potential for extreme bouts of volatility surrounded economic data releases.
Wall Street’s Big Bet on Jumbo Fed Cuts Hangs on US Jobs Report
The bold bet from the likes of Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. that the Federal Reserve will slash interest rates by a half-percentage-point this month faces its biggest test yet from Friday’s US jobs report.
American Drivers Signal a Top in Gasoline Demand
Labor Day weekend, marking the end of the US summer driving season, is typically the year’s last hurrah for gasoline producers. This year, the high-fives were reserved for drivers (and White House occupants): The average pre-long weekend pump price was down 13% from last year after gasoline refining margins collapsed in August. Pump prices have eased further this week.
Fed Rate Cuts Give Higher Probability of the Great Rotation Occurring
Despite pullbacks and elevated volatility in the earlier days of the month, major equity indices were up in August.
US Yield Curve Disinverts as Soft Labor Data Fuels Fed Cut Bets
A key segment of the US Treasury yield curve briefly turned positive as weaker-than-anticipated labor-market data bolstered bets on steep interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
It's Time … For a Fed Pivot
Investors should be careful what they wish for in hoping for an aggressive Fed rate cutting cycle, given stocks tend to do better when cuts are slow and steady.
A Slow Moving Economic Cycle
When we’re viewing markets, it’s not surprising sentiment shifts quickly if we don’t instantly see the anticipated results. Market pundits quickly point fingers and determine the Fed, economists, and participants are wrong. Reactions can be powerful in number and sway momentum for stocks and/or bonds.
China’s Bond Market Rally
A bright spot in Chinese investment could spell trouble for its financial institutions.
Small Wonders: Overlooked Japan Small Caps Poised for Resurgence
After a decade of consistent outperformance, Japanese small caps began underperforming their large cap peers in 2018, a trend that has accelerated since 2023.
Market Overvalued? 10 Growth Stocks That Aren’t!
The stock market as measured by the S&P 500 is trading at a very high valuation. In this video, Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, a.k.a. Mr. Valuation is going to share 10 extremely high-quality stocks that are not overvalued, and offer good growth and long term total rates of return.
Same as it Ever Was
We’ve always admired the great artistry of David Byrne from the Band Talking Heads. My favorite song of theirs is “Once in a Lifetime.” We think this song can tell our readers a great deal about how to look at our portfolio as we navigate an expensive and maniacal S&P 500 Index environment.
Navigating the Investment Landscape: Insights and Warnings
In this edition, Harold Evensky explores the challenges facing sustainable and active funds, the implications of the new DOL Fiduciary Rule, and the value of long-term performance projections. With candid observations and critical analysis--read on to gain perspective on navigating the complex world of investing, the importance of risk management, and the role of fiduciary advisors in securing your financial future.
Evidence-Based Persuasion Secrets
Successful advisors are persuasive. They understand persuasion is critical to converting prospects into clients and keeping them as clients.
Nvidia Rout Has Traders Watching $100-Share Level Amid ‘Vacuum’
The sharp selloff that wiped a record $279 billion off Nvidia Corp.’s market value on Tuesday has traders scouring charts for clues as to where the pain might end.
Reinforcing Economic Foundations
The case for infrastructure investment is rising, but so are its costs.
Navigating Earnings Season: Tailwinds of Tomorrow
With his Jackson Hole speech, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell all but promised rate cuts were coming. That’s cool. But it is why that matters.
August Sees Markets Close Strong After Tough Start
A soft landing for the U.S. economy still appears to be the most likely outcome.
Stock Picking 101 How We Find Hidden Value
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, a.k.a. Mr. Valuation and Professor Nathan Mauck, Phd. are going to show you our approach to value investing and how stock picking 101 is based on value investing principles and through the use of FAST Graphs! We actually don’t like to start with value, we like to start with fundamentals. Fundamentals first, value second.
Key Highlights From Q2 Earnings Season Around the Globe
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Director and Senior Investment Strategist Alex Cousley and ESG and Active Ownership Analyst Zoe Warganz discussed key takeaways from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
Chinese Equities: How Investors Can Unlock the Power of Dividends
As more Chinese companies get comfortable paying dividends, investors may find new sources of equity return potential.
The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since Their 2000 Highs
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the August 2024 close.
Buffett Valuation Indicator: August 2024
With the Q2 GDP second estimate and the August close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 194.9%, down from 197.4% the previous quarter.
Crestmont P/E and Market Valuation: August 2024
Based on the August S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E of 38.6 is 156% above its arithmetic mean, 179% above its geometric mean, and is at the 99th percentile of this 14-plus-decade series.
Q-Ratio and Market Valuation: August 2024
The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. The latest Q-ratio is at 1.71, down from 1.77 in July.
Sizzling ETF Flows in Manic Markets Fuel a $609 Billion Haul
Half your coworkers might have just spent August in Europe, but there were no holiday doldrums in the booming world of ETFs.
Cliff Asness Is ‘Old Man Whinging’ as Markets Get Less Efficient
Cliff Asness says he sounds like an “old man whinging,” but that’s not stopping him from writing 23 pages on his latest thesis: Financial markets these days aren’t what they were.
Shorts Are Circling Some of the AI Boom’s Biggest Question Marks
It’s the story of so many stock market manias: A transformative technology juices a few companies, a bunch of more questionable outfits follow in their wake, and Wall Street buys it all. Then time sorts out what’s real from fake.
Apple Rally Fueled by AI Promises Approaches a Crucial Test
Apple Inc.’s upcoming iPhone release has sent its stock price soaring because of promised artificial-intelligence features. Those gains appear vulnerable, at least in the short term, if history is any guide.
Wall Street Strategists Face Their Own Short Squeeze
Since the pandemic, Wall Street strategists have repeatedly underestimated the performance of the US stock market in their annual projections, leading to a mad dash to boost their outlooks in the back end of the year.
Quant Street September 2024 Investor Letter: All Eyes on the Fed
After a bit of an early-August swoon, the stock market came roaring back in the last few weeks of the month. The S&P 500 finished up 2.4%, though certainly in the early days of August, that did not feel like a particularly likely outcome. In client conversations a few days into the selloff, our feeling was to stay put and not tinker with the portfolios we suggested in early August.
ISM Manufacturing Index Contracts for 5th Straight Month
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) inched up to 47.2 in August but remains in contraction territory for a fifth straight month. The index has now contracted for 21 of the past 22 months. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of 47.5.
Berkshire Hathaway vs Nvidia: The Battle Between Value & Growth
This week saw a nontech giant cross a unique milestone and a tech giant’s earnings report become a Mainstreet sensation.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Lowest Level of 2024
The August S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ fell to 47.9 in August from 49.6 in July, indicating a modest deterioration in business conditions for a second straight month. The latest reading was just below the forecasted reading of 48.0 and is the index's lowest level of the year.
Overbought Conditions Set Up Short-Term Correction
As noted in this past weekend’s newsletter, following the “Yen Carry Trade” blowup just three weeks ago, the market has quickly reverted to more extreme short-term overbought conditions.
Your Portfolio and the Election
I asked my great friend and business partner David Bahnsen, who is about as politically wired as anyone and one of the truly great economic and investment minds, to reflect on the intersection of politics and markets. It is a quick, balanced, and reasonable read...
Why Gold Stocks Could Be a Contrarian Investor’s Dream Right Now
As I write this, gold continues to trade above $2,500 an ounce after surging past the psychologically important level for the first time ever in mid-August. For seasoned gold mining investors, this should be a moment of validation. After all, the yellow metal has long been seen as the ultimate hedge against economic uncertainty.
World Markets Watchlist: August 30, 2024
Seven of our eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through August 30th, 2024. The U.S.'s S&P 500 finished in the top spot with a year-to-date gain of 19.09%. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 finished in second with a year-to-date gain of 15.49% while India's BSE SENSEX finished in third with a year-to-date gain of 14.57%.
RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Economic Index
The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of August 23rd, the index was at 24.827, down 1.545 from the previous week, with 4 of the 6 components in expansion territory.
Don’t Fall for These 3 Value Investing Myths
A number of myths exist about value investing as it pertains to timing the economic cycle, interest rates, and elections.
The Pecking Order of 401(K) Plan Design: A Bird’s Eye View
Establishing the optimal workplace retirement plan follows a pecking order, which starts by prioritizing plan design over investments. Our Mike Dullaghan discusses the process.
Moving Averages: S&P Finishes August 2024 Up 2.3%
Valid until the market close on September 30, 2024
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
Two Measures of Consumer Attitudes: August 2024
Consumer attitudes are measured by two monthly surveys: the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). In August, the MCSI rose for the first time in 5 months, inching up to 67.94. Meanwhile, the CCI increased to 103.3, its highest level in 6 months.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income Up 0.2% in July
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.32% in July and is up 4.1% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.16% month-over-month and up 1.6% year-over-year.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Rose for First Time in 5 Months
Consumer sentiment rose for the first time in five months, according to the final August report for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The index rose 1.5 points (2.3%) from July's final reading to 67.9. The latest reading was above the forecast of 67.8.
Chicago PMI Edged Higher in August
The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index (Chicago Business Barometer) edged up to 46.1 in August from 45.3 in July. The latest reading is better than the 45.0 forecast but keeps the index in contraction territory for a ninth straight month.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Up 0.1% in July
With the release of July's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.21% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.06% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 3.09% nominal and 0.58% real.
Fed Pivots and Baby Aspirin
When you see that behavior at extreme valuations, it tends to be a sign of underlying skittishness and risk aversion. When valuations are setting record extremes because the news can’t get any better, even a slightly less optimistic outlook becomes a risk.
China's Growth Evolution: Opportunities and Challenges for the Global Economy
China's economic transformation presents both challenges and opportunities for global markets.
What Jack Nicholson Knew About Forecasting Errors
Forecasting anything, let alone something as complicated as the economy, is fraught. Stretches of decent growth and low inflation that look, in retrospect, like happy days, can be upended by unforeseen events. Covid, the descent into recession and the sharp rebound are just a few examples. Errors, unfortunately, are an unavoidable part of trying to map the future.
One-Day-Only Funds Are Jack Bogle’s Nightmare Brought to Life
The late Jack Bogle — father of the first index fund — famously loathed their exchange-traded offspring, warning that it only incentivize speculative trading among “fruitcakes, nut cases and lunatic fringe.” Fast forward to 2024, and critics warn a new generation of ETFs are designed to do exactly that.
Break the Cycle and Create Generational Wealth
Many recent studies have been done on the economics of different generations. Researchers want to know if Millennials and Gen Z are in fact worse off than their Boomer and Gen X parents. There are quite a few ways to look at this data.
Expanding the Hunt for Attractively Valued Equities
When global equity markets tumbled in early August, investors got a glimpse of what a deeper correction could like for the US giants, and it wasn’t pretty. The so-called Magnificent Seven have dominated US and global equity market returns since late 2022—and valuations have soared—as earnings growth rebounded and on expectations that they will be the big winners from artificial intelligence (AI).
Consider Packing a Legal Safety Net Before Students Leave for College
College students may want to secure legal documents to ensure their parents can access important information and help them in medical emergencies. Our Bill Cass highlights the key documents students can prepare before leaving for college.