Fears of an impending recession may be fading, but economists are still expecting tepid GDP growth for the year.
Just one day after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba likened Japan’s debt situation to that of Greece, the country faced its weakest demand for 20-year bonds since 2012.
In part one of our new series, AI Alpha, we explored the sweeping potential of artificial intelligence (AI) as a transformative force.
Investment banks and private equity firms are fighting over the kids again.
Alex Veroude, Global Head of Fixed Income, believes fixed income investors can prepare for an uncertain journey by recognising trends and diversifying across different assets.
Global markets may be more rattled than ever, but advisors can count on closed-end funds to offer yield, portfolio diversity, and more.
Unlike most other US public retirement plans of its size, the Tampa Fire & Police Pension Fund doesn’t invest in hedge funds, private equity or private credit.
For US traders, developing-country stocks have been a surprising source of returns as Donald Trump’s trade war roiled the S&P 500 Index.
Summer re-runs are popular on TV, but a repeat of last August's "yen-carry" market upheaval isn't likely on the schedule. A shift in positioning by investors is one reason.
Gold plays a distinct role in the global monetary system. Simply put, it’s perceived as money, and its function as a store of value makes it arguably the world’s most popular hedge against inflation.
In the history of technological progress, there's often a critical misreading. We think the leap is in the product—the engine, the chip, the app.
Head of EMEA and Asia Pacific Equities Lucas Klein and Head of Americas Equities Marc Pinto argue that progress on the trade impasse, further monetary easing, pro-growth reforms, and an innovation revolution should all prove supportive to equities over the mid term once the market moves past near-term volatility.
Financial markets have been experiencing some of their wildest trading days in history this year. Stock and bond prices have been moving in unison—an alarming scenario for investors and their advisors. With increased volatility, long-term investors might benefit from additional exposure to alternative strategies within their portfolio allocations.
If I told someone with even a little investing experience that I own an asset that pays like stocks but is stable like bonds, they would probably think I was a huckster or a fool. Yet many of the most sophisticated investors claim to own such a thing.
Despite inflation worries, fiscal deficit concerns, and continued geopolitical conflict, equity markets posted strong returns in May on the back of easing tariff tensions, lower probability of recession, and better than expected US Q1 earnings.
Wholesale inflation heated up in May but was still cooler than anticipated. The producer price index for final demand was up 0.1% month-over-month after falling 0.2% in April. This was lower than the expected 0.2% growth.
In the week ending June 7th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 248,000, remaining at their highest level in eight months. This is unchanged from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was higher than the 242,000 forecast.
The first half of 2025 has been driven by headlines that have caused volatility in both the stock and bond markets. While tariff negotiations have commanded the most attention, we are now pivoting to the federal budget deficit, which feels like a perpetual headline over the last 15 years.
Integrating volatile and illiquid assets into the ETF structure is something to be avoided, Doubleline CEO and CIO Gundlach said.
A new culture of reform at Japanese companies offers exciting potential for equity investors.
What's the debt ceiling? Learn how the debt ceiling works and how a default on federal debt could impact the U.S. stock market and economy.
With the world order in flux, investors can look to fortify portfolios by diversifying across global markets and capitalizing on attractive, high quality yields.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) release for May puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 2.35%. The latest reading keeps inflation below the 3.73% average since the end of the Second World War for a 24th straight month. Additionally, for a 4th consecutive month, inflation sits below the 10-year moving average which is at 2.99%.
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.
Inflation rose for the first time in four months in May. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index was at 2.4% year-over-year, up from 2.3% in April but lower than the expected 2.5% growth.
Financial institutions shouldn’t underestimate the depth of regulatory complexity coming their way. A misstep in just one area — whether it’s KYC, AML or elsewhere — could unleash severe consequences.
US Treasuries surged as easing US consumer inflation prompted traders to increase their wagers on more than one Federal Reserve interest-rate cut this year.
Wall Street analyst outlooks are typically bullish. If you aggregate every price target on every S&P 500 Index company and weight them to match the index, it’s exceedingly rare for the overall number to fall.
US stocks oscillated between small gains and losses on Wednesday, as traders look past an upbeat report on cooling consumer prices and assess the outlook for global trade.
The global economy is continually evolving due to inflation, interest rates, and geopolitics. How could these and other factors influence the major asset classes over the coming decade?
If we lived in a world where mobile signals were visible, the sky would shimmer like a storm—layers of frequencies rolling over rooftops, crossing oceans and saturating valleys.
The U.S. economy and stock market face a confluence of challenges in the second half of the year, keeping the bar relatively (but not restrictively) high for outperformance.
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
The US housing market remains in a state of inertia. Despite the arrival of the spring selling season, both new and existing home sales continue to underwhelm.
In recent years, “buying the dip“ and more vulgar variations have often been equated to “dumb money” or retail investors, who are presumed to always make a mistake. However, as investors, we need to rethink how we view “buying the dip” because the whole goal of investing is to “buy low and sell high.”
Diversification of portfolios using international equities can reduce volatility and enhance risk-adjusted returns, especially given recent geopolitical shifts that decrease correlations between U.S. and international markets. Despite some investor skepticism, and as we discuss below, the benefits of international diversification can be significant and should be considered in investment strategies.
Gas prices dropped for a third straight week this week. As of June 9th, the price of regular gas was down 2 cents while the price of premium gas was down 3 cents from the previous week.
Small-cap stocks tend to offer greater growth potential than their large-cap peers, but those returns have yet to materialize consistently. What will it take to turn the tide?
Analysts at firms including Barclays Plc and JPMorgan Chase & Co. see further upside for US stocks, in part because they expect institutional investors to abandon their cautious stance and ramp up exposure to equities.
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased for the first time in five months, rising to 98.8 in May. The recovery was in large part due to owners expecting better business conditions and higher sales volumes.
My unifying theory of finance is that everything goes seriously wrong when people start seeing something — a bond, a mortgage-backed security, a crypto exchange — as risk-free when it isn’t.
Here’s the blunt truth: Many great investment strategies fail because of poor implementation. Robust capabilities in trading, transition management, overlays and currencies are critical to executing a strategy.
Investors looking to move big blocks of corporate bonds have long relied on exchange-traded funds listed on stock exchanges to jump in and out of positions. But now, they’re increasingly trading directly in the debt market.
The push to put private assets in the hands of individual investors is breathing new life into a relatively quiet corner of the asset management industry: interval funds.
Investors may revisit international exposure in their portfolios amidst reduced market reactions to tariff announcements, uncertain U.S. policy and lagging U.S. stock performance.
Markets may be fretting over Federal Reserve policy and economic soft landings, but a handful of momentum ETFs have quietly been stealing the show. Across the array of factor funds, momentum has performed best this year.
After falling 0.7% in April, the S&P 500 gained 6.3% last month, marking the index’s best May return since 1990 and its best monthly return since November 2023 (see the chart).
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for May. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 139,000.
May's employment report showed that 82.5% of total employed workers were full-time (35+ hours) and 17.4% of total employed workers were part-time (<35 hours)5
Stablecoins and the concept of digital money represent a significant shift from the current system. While there are many risks with digital money, there is also promise.
US Treasuries were trimming overnight gains, with modest weakness in longer dated debt as investors awaited a Thursday auction of 30-year securities that will offer a fresh test of demand for the beleaguered securities.
US stocks flipped between small gains and losses on Monday as investors awaited the outcome of crucial trade talks between Washington and Beijing in London.
Yale University’s $41 billion endowment, led for decades by the late investing giant David Swensen, has been the envy – and the blueprint — for many US universities eager to secure their financial future.
Retail traders using sophisticated quantitative strategies are starting to have a surprising and noticeable impact on financial prices.
It would seem evident that most investors would understand that consumer spending drives economic growth, ultimately creating corporate earnings growth. Yet, despite this somewhat tautological statement, Wall Street appears to ignore this simple reality when forecasting forward earnings.
Systematic fixed-income investing is attracting increased attention but needs specialist skills and resources. Would your manager have what it takes?
Research trips are an integral component of our active, fundamental investment process. Our investment teams meet with different companies, attend conferences, and travel to new markets around the world, gaining insights for our clients and a deeper understanding of potential investments.
Rebounding demand from ETF investors and resilient buying from central banks and Asia retail have propelled gold prices to fresh records north of US$3,000/oz. Find out why we believe there is more room to run.
The Buffett Indicator, made popular by Warren Buffett, assesses the overall value of the stock market relative to the economy. This video provides the May 2025 update on Buffett Valuation Indicator.
The ETF market saw a noticeable slowdown of new products launched in May; however, innovation continued to be a driving force.
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In May, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 139,000 while the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%.
Treasuries fell as faster-than-expected US job and wage growth prompted traders to trim back bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year.
The federal government, financial markets and most Americans are all in a state of denial about interest rates.
Bouts of volatility may continue in the second half of 2025 as bond market investors navigate evolving tariff policy, U.S. government debt, and economic uncertainty.
Kristofer Kraus, portfolio manager and co-lead of PIMCO’s asset-based finance business, charts the nuances behind the overall resilience of U.S. consumers – and explains how these insights shape lending and investment strategies.
Abstract SMID-cap investing offers stronger performance and lower volatility than small-caps alone. By using the Russell 2500 index, investors can retain top performers longer, reduce turnover, and enhance portfolio resilience and flexibility.
Privacore Capital, an affiliate of Janus Henderson and an open-architecture solutions provider for alternative investment products tailored to the private wealth market, and Partners Capital Investment Group, a global Investment Office, today announced the launch of the Privacore PCAAM Alternative Growth Fund (“AltsGrow”).
Gold’s recent surge to $3,500 was quickly followed by a sharp correction. Each tariff update or diplomatic rumor sends markets into a frenzy—rallying stocks, selling gold, or reversing course the next day.
For four decades, the USA has relied on debt-financed consumption and a service-heavy economy to mask an unsustainable model.
With tariffs toggling on and off and a major tax bill still in flux, investors should brace for headline-driven volatility through July, particularly around trade and fiscal policy.
Since 2019 and the establishment of the ETF Rule, traditional active managers, armed with decades of expertise, have flocked to ETFs.
The U.S. trade deficit shrank to its lowest level since September 2023 as exports increased and imports declined. In April, the trade deficit fell 55.5% to -$61.6B. This marks the largest monthly decline since 1992.
Private investments demand patience, but the rewards could be worth the wait.
Early signs of diminishing economic activity and inflation could be a harbinger for bond prices to rise. If so, consider taking advantage of a potential bond rally with a pair of ETFs from Vanguard.
Stocks rallied in May 2025 as trade tensions eased, but investor confidence remains fragile.
In our view, using quantitative methods in a transparent, repeatable way to extract alpha through diversified factor tilts offers a compelling alternative in this new IG environment.
Passive capitalization-weighted index funds now surpass active management in aggregate investor allocations.
Closed-end funds can offer stable income streams, but also have some benefits over ETFs when it comes to fund structure.
On the trade front, investor uncertainty eased for a short time as President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs seemed to lose traction. Several key developments contributed, including a 90-day tariff pause with China, the signing of a US-UK trade agreement and progress on negotiations with other partners, including Europe.
The moving average for the per-capita light vehicle sales series peaked in August 1978. Almost 50 years later, it is down 36.0% from that peak.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its May Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 49.9—below the forecast of 52.0. This marks the first contraction for the index since June 2024.
After more than a half-decade cleaning up Wells Fargo & Co.’s scandals, the chief executive officer has cleared away the firm’s biggest impediment to growth: the Federal Reserve’s seven-year-old cap on assets.
Global equities hit a record high for the first time since February, as signs of a resilient US economy overshadowed uncertainty around trade negotiations.
A U.S. trade court has blocked most of the Trump administration's "reciprocal" tariffs, but the legal battle will continue. Here's what investors should know.
The U.S. Dollar Index is at a critical inflection point, and how it behaves from here will have a major impact on the direction of gold, silver, and commodities.
Duration is an often confused term when it comes to financial fixed income investing. After all, in your everyday life, the definition of duration is the length of time it takes for something to occur.
Market leadership is shifting and the once-dominant Magnificent 7 may no longer be so magnificent. Our latest report reveals why broader opportunities are emerging across sectors and regions, with quality, value, and growth converging in unexpected places.
The economic narrative took a decisive turn last week. A stunning collapse in the trade deficit suggests we could be looking at near 4% GDP growth in the second quarter—a massive upward revision from the consensus of 2%.
Volatility/Downside Protection
Building Steady Streams: Dividend ETFs in Focus
Fears of an impending recession may be fading, but economists are still expecting tepid GDP growth for the year.
Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly: The Japan Problem
Just one day after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba likened Japan’s debt situation to that of Greece, the country faced its weakest demand for 20-year bonds since 2012.
AI: The Challenges for Investors
In part one of our new series, AI Alpha, we explored the sweeping potential of artificial intelligence (AI) as a transformative force.
JPMorgan Can Retain Junior Bankers With Cash, Not Threats
Investment banks and private equity firms are fighting over the kids again.
Fixed Income Outlook: A Not-so-Random Walk
Alex Veroude, Global Head of Fixed Income, believes fixed income investors can prepare for an uncertain journey by recognising trends and diversifying across different assets.
What Closed-End Funds Could Offer Amid Uncertain Times
Global markets may be more rattled than ever, but advisors can count on closed-end funds to offer yield, portfolio diversity, and more.
The Florida Pension Fund Managers Who've Beaten the S&P 500 Over 50 Years
Unlike most other US public retirement plans of its size, the Tampa Fire & Police Pension Fund doesn’t invest in hedge funds, private equity or private credit.
Options Signal EM Firms’ Outperformance Could Fade: Taking Stock
For US traders, developing-country stocks have been a surprising source of returns as Donald Trump’s trade war roiled the S&P 500 Index.
"Yen-Carry" Anniversary Nears, but Worries Fade
Summer re-runs are popular on TV, but a repeat of last August's "yen-carry" market upheaval isn't likely on the schedule. A shift in positioning by investors is one reason.
Gold has Glittered Amidst Storming Markets
Gold plays a distinct role in the global monetary system. Simply put, it’s perceived as money, and its function as a store of value makes it arguably the world’s most popular hedge against inflation.
The Compute Capital Supercycle: AI’s Silent Infrastructure Revolution
In the history of technological progress, there's often a critical misreading. We think the leap is in the product—the engine, the chip, the app.
Equities Outlook: Era of Rapid Change Creates Opportunities
Head of EMEA and Asia Pacific Equities Lucas Klein and Head of Americas Equities Marc Pinto argue that progress on the trade impasse, further monetary easing, pro-growth reforms, and an innovation revolution should all prove supportive to equities over the mid term once the market moves past near-term volatility.
Should Investors Consider Options-Based Strategies to Help Manage Portfolio Risk?
Financial markets have been experiencing some of their wildest trading days in history this year. Stock and bond prices have been moving in unison—an alarming scenario for investors and their advisors. With increased volatility, long-term investors might benefit from additional exposure to alternative strategies within their portfolio allocations.
Harvard and Yale Will Finally Lift the Veil on Private Assets
If I told someone with even a little investing experience that I own an asset that pays like stocks but is stable like bonds, they would probably think I was a huckster or a fool. Yet many of the most sophisticated investors claim to own such a thing.
Cautious Optimism: Shift Exposure, Stay Balanced
Despite inflation worries, fiscal deficit concerns, and continued geopolitical conflict, equity markets posted strong returns in May on the back of easing tariff tensions, lower probability of recession, and better than expected US Q1 earnings.
Producer Price Index: Wholesale Inflation Cooler Than Expected in May
Wholesale inflation heated up in May but was still cooler than anticipated. The producer price index for final demand was up 0.1% month-over-month after falling 0.2% in April. This was lower than the expected 0.2% growth.
Unemployment Claims Unchanged from Previous Week, Higher Than Expected
In the week ending June 7th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 248,000, remaining at their highest level in eight months. This is unchanged from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was higher than the 242,000 forecast.
Deficit Pressures Treasuries… But No Crisis: US Treasury Market Is ‘Too Big to Fail’
The first half of 2025 has been driven by headlines that have caused volatility in both the stock and bond markets. While tariff negotiations have commanded the most attention, we are now pivoting to the federal budget deficit, which feels like a perpetual headline over the last 15 years.
Gundlach: Illiquid Assets Don’t Belong in Liquid Vehicles
Integrating volatile and illiquid assets into the ETF structure is something to be avoided, Doubleline CEO and CIO Gundlach said.
Japan’s Corporate Reforms Create a Catalyst for Equity Returns
A new culture of reform at Japanese companies offers exciting potential for equity investors.
What Is the Debt Ceiling and Why Does It Matter?
What's the debt ceiling? Learn how the debt ceiling works and how a default on federal debt could impact the U.S. stock market and economy.
The Fragmentation Era
With the world order in flux, investors can look to fortify portfolios by diversifying across global markets and capitalizing on attractive, high quality yields.
Inflation Since 1872: A Long-Term Look at the CPI
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) release for May puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 2.35%. The latest reading keeps inflation below the 3.73% average since the end of the Second World War for a 24th straight month. Additionally, for a 4th consecutive month, inflation sits below the 10-year moving average which is at 2.99%.
Inside the Consumer Price Index: May 2025
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.
Consumer Price Index: Inflation Rises to 2.4% in May, Lower Than Expected
Inflation rose for the first time in four months in May. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index was at 2.4% year-over-year, up from 2.3% in April but lower than the expected 2.5% growth.
One Consumer Watchdog Loses Its Bite as Others Sharpen Their Claws
Financial institutions shouldn’t underestimate the depth of regulatory complexity coming their way. A misstep in just one area — whether it’s KYC, AML or elsewhere — could unleash severe consequences.
Treasuries Rally as Soft Inflation Fuels Bets on Fed Rate Cuts
US Treasuries surged as easing US consumer inflation prompted traders to increase their wagers on more than one Federal Reserve interest-rate cut this year.
Equity Analysts Are Over Liberation Day Tariffs
Wall Street analyst outlooks are typically bullish. If you aggregate every price target on every S&P 500 Index company and weight them to match the index, it’s exceedingly rare for the overall number to fall.
US Stocks Waffle as Traders Weigh US-China Trade Progress
US stocks oscillated between small gains and losses on Wednesday, as traders look past an upbeat report on cooling consumer prices and assess the outlook for global trade.
What's the 10-Year Outlook for Major Asset Classes?
The global economy is continually evolving due to inflation, interest rates, and geopolitics. How could these and other factors influence the major asset classes over the coming decade?
The Infrastructure That Lets the Future Happen
If we lived in a world where mobile signals were visible, the sky would shimmer like a storm—layers of frequencies rolling over rooftops, crossing oceans and saturating valleys.
2025 Mid-Year Outlook: U.S. Stocks and Economy
The U.S. economy and stock market face a confluence of challenges in the second half of the year, keeping the bar relatively (but not restrictively) high for outperformance.
Strategic vs. Tactical
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
Notes from the Desk: MBS Opportunities Amid Quiet Housing Market
The US housing market remains in a state of inertia. Despite the arrival of the spring selling season, both new and existing home sales continue to underwhelm.
“Buying The Dip” – Here’s A Technical Way To Do It
In recent years, “buying the dip“ and more vulgar variations have often been equated to “dumb money” or retail investors, who are presumed to always make a mistake. However, as investors, we need to rethink how we view “buying the dip” because the whole goal of investing is to “buy low and sell high.”
Going Abroad for a Free Lunch
Diversification of portfolios using international equities can reduce volatility and enhance risk-adjusted returns, especially given recent geopolitical shifts that decrease correlations between U.S. and international markets. Despite some investor skepticism, and as we discuss below, the benefits of international diversification can be significant and should be considered in investment strategies.
Gas Prices Drop for Third Straight Week
Gas prices dropped for a third straight week this week. As of June 9th, the price of regular gas was down 2 cents while the price of premium gas was down 3 cents from the previous week.
What's Holding Back Small Caps?
Small-cap stocks tend to offer greater growth potential than their large-cap peers, but those returns have yet to materialize consistently. What will it take to turn the tide?
Wary Wall Street Positioning Leaves Room for S&P 500 to Rally
Analysts at firms including Barclays Plc and JPMorgan Chase & Co. see further upside for US stocks, in part because they expect institutional investors to abandon their cautious stance and ramp up exposure to equities.
NFIB Small Business Survey: Optimism Recovered Slightly in May
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased for the first time in five months, rising to 98.8 in May. The recovery was in large part due to owners expecting better business conditions and higher sales volumes.
A College Degree is no Longer a Risk-Free Investment
My unifying theory of finance is that everything goes seriously wrong when people start seeing something — a bond, a mortgage-backed security, a crypto exchange — as risk-free when it isn’t.
Implementation Matters. Is Your OCIO Built to Execute?
Here’s the blunt truth: Many great investment strategies fail because of poor implementation. Robust capabilities in trading, transition management, overlays and currencies are critical to executing a strategy.
Credit Investors Embrace Portfolio Trades as ETF Grip Eases
Investors looking to move big blocks of corporate bonds have long relied on exchange-traded funds listed on stock exchanges to jump in and out of positions. But now, they’re increasingly trading directly in the debt market.
Wall Street Has a Hot Way to Sell Private Assets to the Masses
The push to put private assets in the hands of individual investors is breathing new life into a relatively quiet corner of the asset management industry: interval funds.
Mid-Year Outlook: International Stocks and Economy
Investors may revisit international exposure in their portfolios amidst reduced market reactions to tariff announcements, uncertain U.S. policy and lagging U.S. stock performance.
Momentum ETFs Regaining Mojo
Markets may be fretting over Federal Reserve policy and economic soft landings, but a handful of momentum ETFs have quietly been stealing the show. Across the array of factor funds, momentum has performed best this year.
Stocks Bloom In May
After falling 0.7% in April, the S&P 500 gained 6.3% last month, marking the index’s best May return since 1990 and its best monthly return since November 2023 (see the chart).
U.S. Workforce Recovery Analysis: May 2025
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for May. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 139,000.
A Closer Look at Full-time and Part-time Employment: May 2025
May's employment report showed that 82.5% of total employed workers were full-time (35+ hours) and 17.4% of total employed workers were part-time (<35 hours)5
Stablecoins to the Treasury’s Rescue
Stablecoins and the concept of digital money represent a significant shift from the current system. While there are many risks with digital money, there is also promise.
US Treasuries Win Some Respite as Key 30-Year Auction Looms
US Treasuries were trimming overnight gains, with modest weakness in longer dated debt as investors awaited a Thursday auction of 30-year securities that will offer a fresh test of demand for the beleaguered securities.
US Stocks Fluctuate as US-China Trade Talks Kick Off in London
US stocks flipped between small gains and losses on Monday as investors awaited the outcome of crucial trade talks between Washington and Beijing in London.
Yale’s $2.5 Billion Private Equity Sale Tests its Vaunted Endowment Model
Yale University’s $41 billion endowment, led for decades by the late investing giant David Swensen, has been the envy – and the blueprint — for many US universities eager to secure their financial future.
Retail Quants May Be the Next Stabilizing Force for Markets
Retail traders using sophisticated quantitative strategies are starting to have a surprising and noticeable impact on financial prices.
Does Consumer Spending Drive Earnings Growth?
It would seem evident that most investors would understand that consumer spending drives economic growth, ultimately creating corporate earnings growth. Yet, despite this somewhat tautological statement, Wall Street appears to ignore this simple reality when forecasting forward earnings.
Seven Questions Before Hiring a Systematic Fixed-Income Manager
Systematic fixed-income investing is attracting increased attention but needs specialist skills and resources. Would your manager have what it takes?
Investing Expeditions: The Ripple Effects of Trade Uncertainty
Research trips are an integral component of our active, fundamental investment process. Our investment teams meet with different companies, attend conferences, and travel to new markets around the world, gaining insights for our clients and a deeper understanding of potential investments.
Gold 2025 Midyear Outlook: A High(er) for Long(er) Gold Price Regime
Rebounding demand from ETF investors and resilient buying from central banks and Asia retail have propelled gold prices to fresh records north of US$3,000/oz. Find out why we believe there is more room to run.
Buffett Valuation Indicator: May 2025
The Buffett Indicator, made popular by Warren Buffett, assesses the overall value of the stock market relative to the economy. This video provides the May 2025 update on Buffett Valuation Indicator.
A Roundup of the Most Innovative ETFs Launched in May
The ETF market saw a noticeable slowdown of new products launched in May; however, innovation continued to be a driving force.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: May Employment
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In May, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 139,000 while the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%.
Wall Street Has a Hot Way to Sell Private Assets to the Masses
The push to put private assets in the hands of individual investors is breathing new life into a relatively quiet corner of the asset management industry: interval funds.
Treasuries Drop as Strong Jobs Data Curb Bets on Fed Rate Cuts
Treasuries fell as faster-than-expected US job and wage growth prompted traders to trim back bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year.
Financial Repression Won’t Make Interest Rates Lower
The federal government, financial markets and most Americans are all in a state of denial about interest rates.
Fixed Income Outlook: Cool and Cloudy
Bouts of volatility may continue in the second half of 2025 as bond market investors navigate evolving tariff policy, U.S. government debt, and economic uncertainty.
Charting the U.S. Consumer with Kristofer Kraus
Kristofer Kraus, portfolio manager and co-lead of PIMCO’s asset-based finance business, charts the nuances behind the overall resilience of U.S. consumers – and explains how these insights shape lending and investment strategies.
Let Your Winners Run: Why SMID-Cap Investing May Be the All-Star Strategy Your Portfolio Needs
Abstract SMID-cap investing offers stronger performance and lower volatility than small-caps alone. By using the Russell 2500 index, investors can retain top performers longer, reduce turnover, and enhance portfolio resilience and flexibility.
Privacore Capital and Partners Capital Investment Group Launch Alternative Growth Registered Fund (“AltsGrow”)
Privacore Capital, an affiliate of Janus Henderson and an open-architecture solutions provider for alternative investment products tailored to the private wealth market, and Partners Capital Investment Group, a global Investment Office, today announced the launch of the Privacore PCAAM Alternative Growth Fund (“AltsGrow”).
The Debt Spiral, Gold’s Rise, and the Dollar’s Fall
Gold’s recent surge to $3,500 was quickly followed by a sharp correction. Each tariff update or diplomatic rumor sends markets into a frenzy—rallying stocks, selling gold, or reversing course the next day.
$50 Trillion Opportunity: USA Robotics & AI ‘Manhattan Project’
For four decades, the USA has relied on debt-financed consumption and a service-heavy economy to mask an unsustainable model.
Trump, Powell & Rates: Tariffs On, Tariffs Off
With tariffs toggling on and off and a major tax bill still in flux, investors should brace for headline-driven volatility through July, particularly around trade and fiscal policy.
Active EM ETF Offers Access to a Time-Tested Strategy
Since 2019 and the establishment of the ETF Rule, traditional active managers, armed with decades of expertise, have flocked to ETFs.
Trade Deficit Shrinks to Smallest Level Since September 2023
The U.S. trade deficit shrank to its lowest level since September 2023 as exports increased and imports declined. In April, the trade deficit fell 55.5% to -$61.6B. This marks the largest monthly decline since 1992.
The Long Game: Why Private Markets May Thrive in Market Turmoil
Private investments demand patience, but the rewards could be worth the wait.
2 Options to Take Advantage of a Bond Rally
Early signs of diminishing economic activity and inflation could be a harbinger for bond prices to rise. If so, consider taking advantage of a potential bond rally with a pair of ETFs from Vanguard.
Markets are Back Near All-Time Highs, but Confidence Isn’t
Stocks rallied in May 2025 as trade tensions eased, but investor confidence remains fragile.
2025 Mid-Year Outlook: Global Stocks and Economy
Investors may revisit international exposure in their portfolios amidst reduced market reactions to tariff announcements, uncertain U.S. policy and lagging U.S. stock performance.
Navigating a Sea of Investment-Grade Credit
In our view, using quantitative methods in a transparent, repeatable way to extract alpha through diversified factor tilts offers a compelling alternative in this new IG environment.
Passive Aggressive: The Increasing Risks of Passive Dominance
Passive capitalization-weighted index funds now surpass active management in aggregate investor allocations.
Why Some ETF Investors May Like Closed-End Funds
Closed-end funds can offer stable income streams, but also have some benefits over ETFs when it comes to fund structure.
Political Noise Continued to Dominate Headlines in May
On the trade front, investor uncertainty eased for a short time as President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs seemed to lose traction. Several key developments contributed, including a 90-day tariff pause with China, the signing of a US-UK trade agreement and progress on negotiations with other partners, including Europe.
Vehicle Sales: May 2025
The moving average for the per-capita light vehicle sales series peaked in August 1978. Almost 50 years later, it is down 36.0% from that peak.
ISM Services PMI Contracts for First Time Since June 2024
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its May Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 49.9—below the forecast of 52.0. This marks the first contraction for the index since June 2024.
Freed From Scandal, Wells Fargo Sets Its Sights on Growth
After more than a half-decade cleaning up Wells Fargo & Co.’s scandals, the chief executive officer has cleared away the firm’s biggest impediment to growth: the Federal Reserve’s seven-year-old cap on assets.
Global Stocks Hit Record as Economic Bets Outweigh Trade Jitters
Global equities hit a record high for the first time since February, as signs of a resilient US economy overshadowed uncertainty around trade negotiations.
Are Tariffs Over? Court Ruling Isn't the End
A U.S. trade court has blocked most of the Trump administration's "reciprocal" tariffs, but the legal battle will continue. Here's what investors should know.
The U.S. Dollar is at a Critical Inflection Point
The U.S. Dollar Index is at a critical inflection point, and how it behaves from here will have a major impact on the direction of gold, silver, and commodities.
Duration – Current income opportunities
Duration is an often confused term when it comes to financial fixed income investing. After all, in your everyday life, the definition of duration is the length of time it takes for something to occur.
The Mag 7 Becomes the Mid 7
Market leadership is shifting and the once-dominant Magnificent 7 may no longer be so magnificent. Our latest report reveals why broader opportunities are emerging across sectors and regions, with quality, value, and growth converging in unexpected places.
Economic Data Surprises, While China Tensions Resurface
The economic narrative took a decisive turn last week. A stunning collapse in the trade deficit suggests we could be looking at near 4% GDP growth in the second quarter—a massive upward revision from the consensus of 2%.