Hear firsthand how financial advisors are leveraging these strategies to safeguard portfolios from market volatility and protect their gains. Don’t miss this opportunity to gain valuable insights and stay ahead of the curve.
The recent sell-off has certainly sparked concerns with investors but the NYSE advance-decline line is an important technical measure to watch. However, what is it, and why does it matter?
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Director and Senior Investment Strategist Alex Cousley discussed recent developments in the trade war and the impact on markets. He also dug into the latest U.S. economic data and provided an update on investor sentiment.
Keep calm and carry on. Recent weeks have seen financial markets rattled by swirling news headlines, tariff whiplash, and rising economic uncertainty.
Unpredictable U.S. tariff policy has heightened concerns about a potential U.S. economic recession.
This morning’s retail sales report is a bit of relief. The economy, as of the end February, is not in free fall as the control group increase of 1.0% offset the same decline in January. Nevertheless, the underlying concerns that emerged over the last few days cannot be ignored.
One of the biggest challenges investors face today is navigating the most concentrated U.S. stock market in history, where the largest stocks represent a record share of total market value.
Nominal retail sales in February were up 0.20% month-over-month (MoM) and 3.11% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 0.02% MoM and up 0.38% YoY.
Builder confidence fell for a second straight month as economic uncertainty, tariff threats, and elevated construction costs continue to weigh on sentiment. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) dropped to 39 this month, down 3 points from February and the lowest level since August. The latest reading was below the 42 forecast.
Richard Perry ran a hedge fund for almost three decades before closing it in 2016. Now he has decided it’s time for a comeback.
A decade after being engulfed by a controversy that culminated in multiple enforcement actions and a regulator clampdown, these off-exchange trading platforms are touting a way to buy and sell stocks that’s even more opaque.
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for February showed a moderate rebound last month, with headline sales rising 0.2%. Meanwhile, January's figure was revised downward to a 1.2% loss. The latest data came in weaker than the anticipated 0.6% growth in consumer spending.
Recent economic data has been all over the map. Consumer confidence sank this month to the lowest level since November 2022, yet the labor market remains strong, with historically low unemployment and rising wages.
One thing we have seen underscored in 2025 is that the bond market can change its mind very quickly, particularly as it relates to policy emanating from Washington, D.C. Following President Trump’s election win, the dominant theme in the U.S. Treasury (UST) arena was that his Administration’s policies would lead to higher budget deficits, increasing UST supply and, ultimately, higher rates for maturities like the 10-Year yield.
Stocks rebounded on Wednesday as core inflation in the United States came in below consensus expectations and news of a possible 30-day truce in the Russia-Ukraine war emerged. Big tech stocks also recovered after flirting with bear-market territory earlier this week.
During the onset of the COVID crisis, I made a note to myself to write an update in five years to discuss what happened to the markets since that trying period of time. This week, I received a task alert in Salesforce reminding me to write that update.
It took just 16 trading sessions for US stocks to tumble into a correction, leaving a frazzled Wall Street asking just how long the “adjustment period” White House officials have warned about will last.
It was only three years ago that a dispute between an infamous crypto billionaire and a titan of the financial establishment became the center of attention at an annual event known as the Davos of the derivatives market.
News related to tariffs, DOGE, geopolitical unrest, NVIDIA earnings, and more significantly impacted U.S. stock markets recently, with the S&P 500 retreating over 2.5% during the second half of February. There are signs that meaningful structural shifts are taking place in the market.
The 60/40 portfolio, where 60% is invested in stocks and 40% in bonds, is the initial starting point for many portfolios. The exact asset mix is often adjusted based on an investor’s time horizon, risk tolerance, and financial goals, but the simple, proportional stock-bond combination is what is often considered a “balanced” portfolio.
In today’s rapidly evolving financial landscape, advisors are expected to be more than just portfolio managers. Clients don’t just want investment recommendations—they seek a trusted partner who understands their financial needs, offers strategic guidance and provides peace of mind during turbulent times.
March came in like a lion, much to the bears’ delight. The S&P 500® plunged from its February 19 high on the heels of stern tariff talk and phrases like “a little bit of an adjustment period” from President Trump and the economy entering a “detox period,” as Treasury Secretary Bessent said last week.
The Liberal Party of Canada has wrapped up its leadership race, with Mark Carney winning by an overwhelming margin.
Warmer weather means that many animals come out of hibernation. Unfortunately for investors, market bears have also awakened from their slumber.
US stocks gained after a volatile session as dip buyers emerged after a cooler-than-forecast February inflation report.
In a few short weeks, President Donald Trump has started silencing the buy-the-dip stock traders who set the tone on Wall Street for the better part of two decades.
There have been few winning strategies to seek refuge in as the stock rout sparked by President Donald Trump’s start-stop tariff war drags on for a third week.
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for February. The unemployment rate inched up to 4.1%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 151,000.
Wholesale inflation eased significantly in February, slowing more than expected. The producer price index for final demand was flat month-over-month, down from 0.6% in January and lower than the 0.3% forecast. On an annual basis, headline PPI increased 3.2%, down from 3.7% in January and below the 3.3% forecast.
In the week ending March 8th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 220,000. This represents a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was lower than the 226,000 forecast.
Three months into 2025, the U.S. IPO (initial public offering) market remains in a rut. Why? And, perhaps just as importantly, is a rebound still possible?
In a world of rich valuations and heightened geopolitical uncertainties, we believe Japanese equities are well positioned to deliver attractive returns.
Stock/bond divergence allows investors to reap the benefits of portfolio diversification, giving bond exchange-traded funds credence.
Recent US stock weakness may be related to a downturn in US economic data and headline shocks related to tariffs.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) release for February puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 2.82%. The latest reading keeps inflation below the 3.73% average since the end of the Second World War. Additionally, inflation now sits below the 10-year moving average which is now at 2.93%.
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.
Inflation cooled for the first time in five months in February. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index was at 2.8% year-over-year, lower than the expected 2.9% growth. Core CPI also came in lower than expected, cooling to 3.1% year-over-year.
US consumer prices rose at the slowest pace in four months in February, offering some reprieve ahead of tariffs that are expected to drive costs higher.
President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports came into force Wednesday, triggering concern across export-reliant Asia and immediate reprisals from the European Union and Canada as the global trade war enters a rocky phase.
As we wade into March, market volatility is at the forefront, leaving investors grappling with uncertainty surrounding tariffs and mixed economic signals. Though the S&P 500 experienced a bounce towards February's end, it slipped 1% overall, revealing lingering challenges for iconic tech stocks and the broader equity landscape.
As the consumer goes, so goes the U.S. economy. Consumers make up roughly 70 percent of U.S. GDP.
Global investment themes are shifting toward infrastructure, cybersecurity and energy expansion as demand outpaces supply in key sectors.
Volatility across financial markets has become a persistent theme in 2025. The recent volatility has stemmed from a range of factors, including:
The EV shakeout is underway. When the dust settles, only a few players will remain. Many more will be relegated to the scrapyard of failed ambitions.
Precidian’s Stuart Thomas spotlights the firm’s innovative ADRhedged ETFs and explains the rationale for removing currency exposure. VettaFi’s Kirsten Chang discusses several recent ETF launches, including offerings from State Street, VistaShares, Quantify Funds, and Roundhill.
Gas prices were down for a third straight week, hitting their lowest level in nearly two months. As of March 10th, the price of regular and premium gas were down 1 and 2 cents from the previous week, respectively. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $66.03, down 3.4% from last week and the lowest level since August 2021.
Modern direct indexing tools, using sophisticated technology, can identify tax loss opportunities on a daily or even minute-by-minute basis. As time progresses, I believe more advisors will see the potential of direct indexing.
As more advisors look to private equity as an effective means of diversifying their clients’ portfolios and providing a fertile source of uncorrelated alpha, the middle market merits a closer look.
The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report showed that job openings rose more than expected in January, while hiring and quits also edged higher. Vacancies increased to 7.740 million, up from December's downwardly revised 7.508 million. The January figure came in above the expected 7.650 million.
Blackstone Inc. has won approval from the US Securities and Exchange Commission to launch its newest private credit fund, one of the latest efforts to give individuals access to assets that are mostly backed by institutions.
US Treasuries surged and investors boosted their bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts Monday as fear of a economic slowdown took hold across US markets.
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped for a second straight month, falling to 100.7 in February. While optimism among small business owners moderated last month, uncertainty spiked to its second highest reading of all time.
At the start of the year, our Investment Strategy Committee outlook was positive for both the economy and the equity market, supported by strong consumer, labor market, and corporate fundamentals.
Trade policy clarity is a long way off.
Last week brought another wave of volatility to the markets, with investors grappling with mixed economic signals, geopolitical developments, and ongoing trade policy uncertainty.
It is true that tariffs are a tax. It is also true that tariff policies have been volatile…on and off again…different carve outs…different countries…phone calls that change things. All of this clearly has an impact on the market. So, we are not surprised to see stock market volatility.
Investor’s bearish sentiment has surged to levels that generally align with previous market corrections and crashes.
On this episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth talks about the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) with Money Life host Chuck Jaffe. The pair covered a range of topics related to the fund, providing investors with a deeper understanding of the ETF.
Let's take a close look at February's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. The latest data shows that 82.5% of total employed workers are full-time (35+ hours) and 17.5% of total employed workers are part-time (<35 hours).
The PPA has made a mistake in designating an MA as a QDIA. Perhaps the drafters of the PPA were thinking about accounts that are actually managed, but those participants do not default, so that flavor of MA is not a QDIA, and is typically reserved for executives of the sponsoring firm.
On February 19, 2025, the Fed made a confounding statement about QT, aka balance sheet reduction. Per its latest FOMC minutes: “several participants suggest halting or slowing balance sheet reduction pending debt ceiling resolution.” Might the Fed be offering investors a liquidity warning cloaked as a reaction to a fiscal crisis?
A chorus of Wall Street strategists is warning about rising volatility in the stock market, with Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson the latest to sound the alarm on slumping economic growth amid President Donald Trump’s trade wars.
Some of Asia’s biggest central banks are getting a painful refresher in economic theory.
Emerging-market stocks declined for a second day and currencies halted a four-day rally as concerns grew that China’s deflation is spreading to its consumer economy and Donald Trump’s tariffs threaten US growth.
Last week's economic reports presented a narrative similar to what we’ve seen over the past few months: growth coupled with concerns.
The U.S. has poured more than $120 billion into Ukraine since its war with Russia began three years ago, but with a new administration in Washington, that support is grinding to a halt.
We highlight some underreported positive developments that could keep economic growth on track and support higher equity prices in the months ahead.
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Senior Investment Strategist and Head of Canadian Strategy, BeiChen Lin, discussed how markets are reacting to U.S. trade policy uncertainty.
The European Central Bank will likely continue to cut interest rates, but future decisions could be more contentious.
The euro is set for its best weekly performance in 16 years after Germany’s historic pledge to ramp up spending for defense and infrastructure.
On the latest Road to Exchange, VettaFi Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth interviewed Michael Durso, CEO of ShoreHaven Wealth Partners.
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In February, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 151,000, while the unemployment rate inched up to 4.1%.
Travel on all roads and streets increased in December. The 12-month moving average was up 0.13% month-over-month and was up 0.99% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.07% MoM and up 0.38% YoY.
Will artificial intelligence take my job? This question is really starting to preoccupy me and millions of other white-collar workers. There’s even a word for it — FOBO, or fear of becoming obsolete — and, regrettably, our apprehension isn’t entirely unfounded.
The moving average for vehicle sales per capita series peaked in August 1978. Fast forward more than 45 years, it is now down 37.2% from that peak.
Cambria Investments CIO and founder Meb Faber explores David Swensen’s legendary investment strategy at Yale’s endowment, comparing its long-term performance to traditional portfolios and examining whether individual investors can replicate its success.
As the debate heats up on Capitol Hill about extending the TCJA, there are several issues to watch including potential SALT cap relief and whether more tax cuts will be added to the final bill.
Q4 company earnings offered a lot to cheer at the start of the year, even as U.S. stocks contended with bouts of volatility.
One month into President Donald Trump’s new term, financial markets are adjusting to a rapidly shifting economic and policy environment. Investors are watching closely as tariffs, interest rate expectations and regulatory changes take center stage.
Volatility is back in town. Tariff jitters and concerns about growth and inflation have resulted in an S&P 500® dip and the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) jumping above 20. Investors grapple with a very sanguine backdrop painted by the fourth-quarter earnings season and policy uncertainty.
The municipal bond tax exemption is back in focus. We believe the threat to infrastructure investment outweighs the modest revenue benefits, which could keep the risk of elimination or significant curtailment low.
Ever since interest rates got up off the floor in 2022, there’s been increased interest in credit, and that’s why I’m devoting this memo to it. It’ll come a little closer than usual to “talking my book,” but I think the subject justifies that.
Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio’s famous “All Weather” strategy has arrived in the exchange-traded fund market, just as the kind of macro-driven turmoil it seeks to guard against sweeps global assets.
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $16,440 for an annualized real return of 9.98%.
The value today of quality bond exposure in your high yield portfolio.
The market for US initial public offerings should look a lot more like the years prior to the pandemic-fueled boom, according to the head of the New York Stock Exchange.
The U.S. trade deficit widened more than expected, as a surge in imports exceeded a smaller increase in exports. In January, the trade deficit expanded 34.0% to -$131.4B, the largest one month jump since 2015 and the largest deficit on record.
In the week ending March 1st, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 221,000. This represents a decrease of 21,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was lower than the 234,000 forecast.
Volatility/Downside Protection
LiveCast: Flexibility Amidst Uncertainty: The Power of Quarterly Buffer ETFs™
Hear firsthand how financial advisors are leveraging these strategies to safeguard portfolios from market volatility and protect their gains. Don’t miss this opportunity to gain valuable insights and stay ahead of the curve.
NYSE A/D Line: A Topping Process In Progress?
The recent sell-off has certainly sparked concerns with investors but the NYSE advance-decline line is an important technical measure to watch. However, what is it, and why does it matter?
Volatility Returns With a Vengeance
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Director and Senior Investment Strategist Alex Cousley discussed recent developments in the trade war and the impact on markets. He also dug into the latest U.S. economic data and provided an update on investor sentiment.
Putting the Recent Volatility Into Perspective
Keep calm and carry on. Recent weeks have seen financial markets rattled by swirling news headlines, tariff whiplash, and rising economic uncertainty.
Schwab Market Perspective: Recession Risk Rising?
Unpredictable U.S. tariff policy has heightened concerns about a potential U.S. economic recession.
Tariffs Shake Markets as Sentiment Plummets
This morning’s retail sales report is a bit of relief. The economy, as of the end February, is not in free fall as the control group increase of 1.0% offset the same decline in January. Nevertheless, the underlying concerns that emerged over the last few days cannot be ignored.
How To Survive Falling Markets
One of the biggest challenges investors face today is navigating the most concentrated U.S. stock market in history, where the largest stocks represent a record share of total market value.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Sales Flat in February
Nominal retail sales in February were up 0.20% month-over-month (MoM) and 3.11% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 0.02% MoM and up 0.38% YoY.
NAHB Housing Market Index: Uncertainty Drags Builder Confidence to 7-Month Low
Builder confidence fell for a second straight month as economic uncertainty, tariff threats, and elevated construction costs continue to weigh on sentiment. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) dropped to 39 this month, down 3 points from February and the lowest level since August. The latest reading was below the 42 forecast.
Richard Perry Returns to Hedge Funds After a Nine-Year Hiatus
Richard Perry ran a hedge fund for almost three decades before closing it in 2016. Now he has decided it’s time for a comeback.
Darker Than a Dark Pool? Welcome to Wall Street’s ‘Private Rooms’
A decade after being engulfed by a controversy that culminated in multiple enforcement actions and a regulator clampdown, these off-exchange trading platforms are touting a way to buy and sell stocks that’s even more opaque.
Retail Sales Rise 0.2% in February, Weaker Than Expected
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for February showed a moderate rebound last month, with headline sales rising 0.2%. Meanwhile, January's figure was revised downward to a 1.2% loss. The latest data came in weaker than the anticipated 0.6% growth in consumer spending.
Gold Smashes Through $3,000 as Recession Fears Mount
Recent economic data has been all over the map. Consumer confidence sank this month to the lowest level since November 2022, yet the labor market remains strong, with historically low unemployment and rising wages.
Discounting the D.C. Effect in the Bond Market
One thing we have seen underscored in 2025 is that the bond market can change its mind very quickly, particularly as it relates to policy emanating from Washington, D.C. Following President Trump’s election win, the dominant theme in the U.S. Treasury (UST) arena was that his Administration’s policies would lead to higher budget deficits, increasing UST supply and, ultimately, higher rates for maturities like the 10-Year yield.
Economic Vitals Stay Strong Amid Trade Dustup
Stocks rebounded on Wednesday as core inflation in the United States came in below consensus expectations and news of a possible 30-day truce in the Russia-Ukraine war emerged. Big tech stocks also recovered after flirting with bear-market territory earlier this week.
One of Those Times
During the onset of the COVID crisis, I made a note to myself to write an update in five years to discuss what happened to the markets since that trying period of time. This week, I received a task alert in Salesforce reminding me to write that update.
US Stocks Face Uneven Recovery From Tariff-Triggered Correction
It took just 16 trading sessions for US stocks to tumble into a correction, leaving a frazzled Wall Street asking just how long the “adjustment period” White House officials have warned about will last.
Wall Street Goes All In on Great Crypto Comeback Fueled by Trump
It was only three years ago that a dispute between an infamous crypto billionaire and a titan of the financial establishment became the center of attention at an annual event known as the Davos of the derivatives market.
Quality Is On Sale
News related to tariffs, DOGE, geopolitical unrest, NVIDIA earnings, and more significantly impacted U.S. stock markets recently, with the S&P 500 retreating over 2.5% during the second half of February. There are signs that meaningful structural shifts are taking place in the market.
Rebuilding Resilience in 60/40 Portfolios
The 60/40 portfolio, where 60% is invested in stocks and 40% in bonds, is the initial starting point for many portfolios. The exact asset mix is often adjusted based on an investor’s time horizon, risk tolerance, and financial goals, but the simple, proportional stock-bond combination is what is often considered a “balanced” portfolio.
Becoming Your Client’s Financial MD: A New Advisory Mindset
In today’s rapidly evolving financial landscape, advisors are expected to be more than just portfolio managers. Clients don’t just want investment recommendations—they seek a trusted partner who understands their financial needs, offers strategic guidance and provides peace of mind during turbulent times.
Honeywell’s Planned Spinoff and What It Means Amid Macro Volatility
March came in like a lion, much to the bears’ delight. The S&P 500® plunged from its February 19 high on the heels of stern tariff talk and phrases like “a little bit of an adjustment period” from President Trump and the economy entering a “detox period,” as Treasury Secretary Bessent said last week.
Election Debrief: Why the Era of Uncertainty May Continue in Canada
The Liberal Party of Canada has wrapped up its leadership race, with Mark Carney winning by an overwhelming margin.
Bears Awaken, but Don’t Fear the Volatility
Warmer weather means that many animals come out of hibernation. Unfortunately for investors, market bears have also awakened from their slumber.
US Stocks Rebound After Volatile Session on Softer CPI Data
US stocks gained after a volatile session as dip buyers emerged after a cooler-than-forecast February inflation report.
‘Buy The Dip’ Calls Fade as Trump Selloffs Rattle Wall Street
In a few short weeks, President Donald Trump has started silencing the buy-the-dip stock traders who set the tone on Wall Street for the better part of two decades.
Stagflation Trade Emerges as Rare Winner in US Stock Market Rout
There have been few winning strategies to seek refuge in as the stock rout sparked by President Donald Trump’s start-stop tariff war drags on for a third week.
U.S. Workforce Recovery Analysis: February 2025
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for February. The unemployment rate inched up to 4.1%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 151,000.
Producer Price Index: Wholesale Inflation Eased Significantly in February
Wholesale inflation eased significantly in February, slowing more than expected. The producer price index for final demand was flat month-over-month, down from 0.6% in January and lower than the 0.3% forecast. On an annual basis, headline PPI increased 3.2%, down from 3.7% in January and below the 3.3% forecast.
Unemployment Claims Down 2K, Lower Than Expected
In the week ending March 8th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 220,000. This represents a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was lower than the 226,000 forecast.
Why Is the IPO Market Struggling? Here’s What Active Managers Have to Say
Three months into 2025, the U.S. IPO (initial public offering) market remains in a rut. Why? And, perhaps just as importantly, is a rebound still possible?
Three Reasons We’re Overweight Japanese Equities
In a world of rich valuations and heightened geopolitical uncertainties, we believe Japanese equities are well positioned to deliver attractive returns.
Stocks/Bonds Divergence Benefits Portfolio Diversification
Stock/bond divergence allows investors to reap the benefits of portfolio diversification, giving bond exchange-traded funds credence.
Data Determination vs. Headline ‘Hell’: Making Sense of the US Market’s Crosscurrents
Recent US stock weakness may be related to a downturn in US economic data and headline shocks related to tariffs.
Inflation Since 1872: A Long-Term Look at the CPI
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) release for February puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 2.82%. The latest reading keeps inflation below the 3.73% average since the end of the Second World War. Additionally, inflation now sits below the 10-year moving average which is now at 2.93%.
Inside the Consumer Price Index: February 2025
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.
Consumer Price Index: Inflation Cools to 2.8% in February
Inflation cooled for the first time in five months in February. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index was at 2.8% year-over-year, lower than the expected 2.9% growth. Core CPI also came in lower than expected, cooling to 3.1% year-over-year.
US Inflation Eases, Offering Some Relief Ahead of Tariffs
US consumer prices rose at the slowest pace in four months in February, offering some reprieve ahead of tariffs that are expected to drive costs higher.
Trump Metal Tariffs Spark Retaliation Moves, Calls for Talks
President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports came into force Wednesday, triggering concern across export-reliant Asia and immediate reprisals from the European Union and Canada as the global trade war enters a rocky phase.
Navigating Market Turbulence: Decoding the Impact of Tariffs and Economic Trends
As we wade into March, market volatility is at the forefront, leaving investors grappling with uncertainty surrounding tariffs and mixed economic signals. Though the S&P 500 experienced a bounce towards February's end, it slipped 1% overall, revealing lingering challenges for iconic tech stocks and the broader equity landscape.
All Eyes on the Consumer: Is the Economic Engine Sputtering?
As the consumer goes, so goes the U.S. economy. Consumers make up roughly 70 percent of U.S. GDP.
From AI to Infrastructure: The 10 Investment Themes Defining the Next Five Years
Global investment themes are shifting toward infrastructure, cybersecurity and energy expansion as demand outpaces supply in key sectors.
Looking Through the Volatility
Volatility across financial markets has become a persistent theme in 2025. The recent volatility has stemmed from a range of factors, including:
The EV Shakeout
The EV shakeout is underway. When the dust settles, only a few players will remain. Many more will be relegated to the scrapyard of failed ambitions.
Precidian’s Stuart Thomas Spotlights Currency Hedged Single Stock ETFs
Precidian’s Stuart Thomas spotlights the firm’s innovative ADRhedged ETFs and explains the rationale for removing currency exposure. VettaFi’s Kirsten Chang discusses several recent ETF launches, including offerings from State Street, VistaShares, Quantify Funds, and Roundhill.
Gasoline Prices Down for Third Straight Week
Gas prices were down for a third straight week, hitting their lowest level in nearly two months. As of March 10th, the price of regular and premium gas were down 1 and 2 cents from the previous week, respectively. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $66.03, down 3.4% from last week and the lowest level since August 2021.
Still Working the Night Shift
Modern direct indexing tools, using sophisticated technology, can identify tax loss opportunities on a daily or even minute-by-minute basis. As time progresses, I believe more advisors will see the potential of direct indexing.
Revisiting Direct Indexing in 2025
Modern direct indexing tools, using sophisticated technology, can identify tax loss opportunities on a daily or even minute-by-minute basis. As time progresses, I believe more advisors will see the potential of direct indexing.
Stocks/Bonds Divergence Benefits Portfolio Diversification
Stock/bond divergence allows investors to reap the benefits of portfolio diversification, giving bond exchange-traded funds credence.
Unlock Alpha in Mid-Market Private Equity
As more advisors look to private equity as an effective means of diversifying their clients’ portfolios and providing a fertile source of uncorrelated alpha, the middle market merits a closer look.
Job Openings Rise More Than Expected in January
The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report showed that job openings rose more than expected in January, while hiring and quits also edged higher. Vacancies increased to 7.740 million, up from December's downwardly revised 7.508 million. The January figure came in above the expected 7.650 million.
SEC Approves Retail-Friendly Blackstone Private Credit Fund
Blackstone Inc. has won approval from the US Securities and Exchange Commission to launch its newest private credit fund, one of the latest efforts to give individuals access to assets that are mostly backed by institutions.
US Bonds Rose as Recession Angst Fuels Haven Demand
US Treasuries surged and investors boosted their bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts Monday as fear of a economic slowdown took hold across US markets.
NFIB Small Business Survey: Uncertainty is High and Rising
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped for a second straight month, falling to 100.7 in February. While optimism among small business owners moderated last month, uncertainty spiked to its second highest reading of all time.
Despite Recent Volatility, We Maintain Our Constructive Outlook
At the start of the year, our Investment Strategy Committee outlook was positive for both the economy and the equity market, supported by strong consumer, labor market, and corporate fundamentals.
A Frenzied Week for Tariffs
Trade policy clarity is a long way off.
Markets Struggle for Direction as Uncertainty Mounts
Last week brought another wave of volatility to the markets, with investors grappling with mixed economic signals, geopolitical developments, and ongoing trade policy uncertainty.
It's Not All About Tariffs
It is true that tariffs are a tax. It is also true that tariff policies have been volatile…on and off again…different carve outs…different countries…phone calls that change things. All of this clearly has an impact on the market. So, we are not surprised to see stock market volatility.
Bearish Sentiment Surges As If The Market Just Crashed
Investor’s bearish sentiment has surged to levels that generally align with previous market corrections and crashes.
ETF of the Week: KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB)
On this episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth talks about the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) with Money Life host Chuck Jaffe. The pair covered a range of topics related to the fund, providing investors with a deeper understanding of the ETF.
A Closer Look at Full-time and Part-time Employment: February 2025
Let's take a close look at February's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. The latest data shows that 82.5% of total employed workers are full-time (35+ hours) and 17.5% of total employed workers are part-time (<35 hours).
Managed Account Is a Misnomer When it Comes to QDIAs
The PPA has made a mistake in designating an MA as a QDIA. Perhaps the drafters of the PPA were thinking about accounts that are actually managed, but those participants do not default, so that flavor of MA is not a QDIA, and is typically reserved for executives of the sponsoring firm.
Never Let a Crisis Go to Waste
On February 19, 2025, the Fed made a confounding statement about QT, aka balance sheet reduction. Per its latest FOMC minutes: “several participants suggest halting or slowing balance sheet reduction pending debt ceiling resolution.” Might the Fed be offering investors a liquidity warning cloaked as a reaction to a fiscal crisis?
Strategists See More S&P 500 Volatility as Tariff Fears Kick In
A chorus of Wall Street strategists is warning about rising volatility in the stock market, with Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson the latest to sound the alarm on slumping economic growth amid President Donald Trump’s trade wars.
‘Impossible Trinity’ Conundrum Has Caused a Cash Crunch in Asia
Some of Asia’s biggest central banks are getting a painful refresher in economic theory.
Emerging Markets Decline Amid China Deflation, US Growth Worries
Emerging-market stocks declined for a second day and currencies halted a four-day rally as concerns grew that China’s deflation is spreading to its consumer economy and Donald Trump’s tariffs threaten US growth.
Weekly Economic Snapshot: Labor, Services, & Manufacturing’s Cautious Growth
Last week's economic reports presented a narrative similar to what we’ve seen over the past few months: growth coupled with concerns.
European Defense Stocks Go Parabolic as War Spending Surges
The U.S. has poured more than $120 billion into Ukraine since its war with Russia began three years ago, but with a new administration in Washington, that support is grinding to a halt.
Falling Gas Prices Could Provide a Boost to Consumer Spending
We highlight some underreported positive developments that could keep economic growth on track and support higher equity prices in the months ahead.
Tariff Uncertainty Rattles Markets
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Senior Investment Strategist and Head of Canadian Strategy, BeiChen Lin, discussed how markets are reacting to U.S. trade policy uncertainty.
ECB: It Will Get Harder From Here
The European Central Bank will likely continue to cut interest rates, but future decisions could be more contentious.
Euro Set for Best Week Since 2009 as BofA Boosts Forecast
The euro is set for its best weekly performance in 16 years after Germany’s historic pledge to ramp up spending for defense and infrastructure.
The Road to Exchange: Featuring Michael Durso of ShoreHaven Wealth Partners
On the latest Road to Exchange, VettaFi Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth interviewed Michael Durso, CEO of ShoreHaven Wealth Partners.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: February Employment
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In February, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 151,000, while the unemployment rate inched up to 4.1%.
America's Driving Habits: December 2024
Travel on all roads and streets increased in December. The 12-month moving average was up 0.13% month-over-month and was up 0.99% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.07% MoM and up 0.38% YoY.
How To Hedge Against AI Stealing Your Job
Will artificial intelligence take my job? This question is really starting to preoccupy me and millions of other white-collar workers. There’s even a word for it — FOBO, or fear of becoming obsolete — and, regrettably, our apprehension isn’t entirely unfounded.
Vehicle Sales: February 2025
The moving average for vehicle sales per capita series peaked in August 1978. Fast forward more than 45 years, it is now down 37.2% from that peak.
Can We All Invest Like Yale?
Cambria Investments CIO and founder Meb Faber explores David Swensen’s legendary investment strategy at Yale’s endowment, comparing its long-term performance to traditional portfolios and examining whether individual investors can replicate its success.
Tax Policy Takes Center Stage: What to Watch on Capitol Hill
As the debate heats up on Capitol Hill about extending the TCJA, there are several issues to watch including potential SALT cap relief and whether more tax cuts will be added to the final bill.
Q4 Company Earnings Reveal Key Areas of U.S. Equity Exceptionalism
Q4 company earnings offered a lot to cheer at the start of the year, even as U.S. stocks contended with bouts of volatility.
Trump’s Economic Landscape: What Investors Need to Know
One month into President Donald Trump’s new term, financial markets are adjusting to a rapidly shifting economic and policy environment. Investors are watching closely as tariffs, interest rate expectations and regulatory changes take center stage.
March’s Interim Data Highlights: Economic Clues from Costco, Taiwan Semi, and Brokers
Volatility is back in town. Tariff jitters and concerns about growth and inflation have resulted in an S&P 500® dip and the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) jumping above 20. Investors grapple with a very sanguine backdrop painted by the fourth-quarter earnings season and policy uncertainty.
Is Eliminating the Tax Exemption on Municipal Bonds Worth the Cost?
The municipal bond tax exemption is back in focus. We believe the threat to infrastructure investment outweighs the modest revenue benefits, which could keep the risk of elimination or significant curtailment low.
Gimme Credit
Ever since interest rates got up off the floor in 2022, there’s been increased interest in credit, and that’s why I’m devoting this memo to it. It’ll come a little closer than usual to “talking my book,” but I think the subject justifies that.
Ray Dalio’s ‘All Weather’ Strategy Enters ETF Land During Turmoil
Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio’s famous “All Weather” strategy has arrived in the exchange-traded fund market, just as the kind of macro-driven turmoil it seeks to guard against sweeps global assets.
The Total Return Roller Coaster: February 2025
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $16,440 for an annualized real return of 9.98%.
A High-Quality Moment in High Yield
The value today of quality bond exposure in your high yield portfolio.
NYSE President Martin Sees ‘More Normal’ IPO Market In 2025
The market for US initial public offerings should look a lot more like the years prior to the pandemic-fueled boom, according to the head of the New York Stock Exchange.
Trade Deficit Surge to Record High in January
The U.S. trade deficit widened more than expected, as a surge in imports exceeded a smaller increase in exports. In January, the trade deficit expanded 34.0% to -$131.4B, the largest one month jump since 2015 and the largest deficit on record.
Unemployment Claims Down 21K, Lower Than Expected
In the week ending March 1st, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 221,000. This represents a decrease of 21,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was lower than the 234,000 forecast.