Since the end of the “Yen Carry Trade” correction in August, bullish positioning has returned with a vengeance, yet two key risks face investors as September begins. While bullish positioning and optimism are ingredients for a rising market, there is more to this story.
We think the decline in the S&P 500 Index on Tuesday may be more technical than fundamental.
Most people see “blockchain” and “funds” in the same sentence and immediately think of pools of money betting on cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ether. That isn’t how Singapore sees the utility of distributed ledgers.
Money can still be a factor in inflation.
Recent changes to the FAFSA form and process include a simpler form, fewer questions and a revised eligibility formula. Our Bill Cass highlights what you need to know to apply for federal financial aid for college.
High interest rates have had the predictable effect of restraining the performances of dividend stocks and related exchange traded funds.
A key segment of the US Treasury yield curve briefly turned positive as weaker-than-anticipated labor-market data bolstered bets on steep interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
A bright spot in Chinese investment could spell trouble for its financial institutions.
Using infographics to illustrate your firm’s financial planning process is a great way to show the value you provide. Whether in your marketing materials, initial consultations, or new client onboarding, these visuals can help set the stage for a successful and growing relationship.
In this edition, Harold Evensky explores the challenges facing sustainable and active funds, the implications of the new DOL Fiduciary Rule, and the value of long-term performance projections. With candid observations and critical analysis--read on to gain perspective on navigating the complex world of investing, the importance of risk management, and the role of fiduciary advisors in securing your financial future.
Successful advisors are persuasive. They understand persuasion is critical to converting prospects into clients and keeping them as clients.
The sharp selloff that wiped a record $279 billion off Nvidia Corp.’s market value on Tuesday has traders scouring charts for clues as to where the pain might end.
The case for infrastructure investment is rising, but so are its costs.
You did everything by the book. Your prospect talked and you listened. But listening alone is not enough to build trust.
Half your coworkers might have just spent August in Europe, but there were no holiday doldrums in the booming world of ETFs.
Cliff Asness says he sounds like an “old man whinging,” but that’s not stopping him from writing 23 pages on his latest thesis: Financial markets these days aren’t what they were.
Establishing the optimal workplace retirement plan follows a pecking order, which starts by prioritizing plan design over investments. Our Mike Dullaghan discusses the process.
As tax season draws nearer, advisors and investors increasingly look to their portfolio to optimize exposures for taxation purposes.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.32% in July and is up 4.1% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.16% month-over-month and up 1.6% year-over-year.
College students may want to secure legal documents to ensure their parents can access important information and help them in medical emergencies. Our Bill Cass highlights the key documents students can prepare before leaving for college.
While short-term fluctuations and sudden selloffs have tested the markets, key indicators such as corporate profits, employment data, and economic resilience have held firm.
We analyze Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell’s comments about the potential for rate cuts in September and beyond.
A Soft Landing Scenario Is Still a Realistic Base Case.
The 19th Century American author Mark Twain once said: “Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one’s lifetime.”
To understand the importance of involving both spouses in the discussion, we asked our very own Vicky Frye, Director of FinTech Innovation and Cybersecurity Strategies at WMGNA, for her comments on this topic.
The potential of AI in wealth management is undeniable, but realizing that potential requires more than just adopting the latest technology. By engaging advisors in the process, providing thorough training, and setting realistic expectations, firms can bridge the gap between C-suite optimism and frontline reality.
As tough as financial advisors claim to be, we still get nervous about “firing” clients, too. When we say “graduate,” that is our delicate way of handling an uncomfortable situation. It’s a cheap, but effective way to massage the misgivings that we have about terminating client relationships.
To make an organizational change effort stick, you have to start with the people, not with KPIs or quotas. If you want to move your firm to a client-centric model, you need to consider influencing factors such as your organizational structure and culture...
That anthem was characteristic of the era. After two decades of economic frustration, free market policies had prompted a surge of growth and a bull market for stocks. The captains of industry were corporate raiders, who purchased companies, slashed expenses, pushed up prices and reaped outsized rewards.
This week, before she accepted the Democratic Party’s nomination for president, Vice President Kamala Harris threw her support behind President Joe Biden’s tax proposals for 2025, which include a steep 44.6% capital gains rate and an unprecedented 25% tax on unrealized gains.
Over nearly three decades, I’ve been dedicated to the sport of running. For the last five years, I chased the elusive goal of qualifying for the Boston Marathon, my ultimate aspiration. It wasn’t until I sought the expertise of a professional coach that I finally achieved this dream.
It’s the hottest trade on Wall Street. Everywhere you turn, money managers have upped their investments in private credit, helping the asset class balloon into a $1.7 trillion industry. But there’s one group where interest appears to already be waning — the family office.
Recent economic data points have been mixed. On the more positive side of the ledger, there’s evidence that inflation is cooling and consumer spending remains sturdy. Conversely, the jobs market is cooling.
Call me Ishmael. The biggest question about an investment banking client like Elon Musk is whether he turns out to be a Moby Dick.
The last two years of high school can be particularly important as students approach the final college decision. Our Bill Cass highlights some action items for students and parents.
Active management can lead to high portfolio turnover and a higher tax bill. Wealth managers might feel that an active strategy could be too inefficient for clients who are sensitive to taxes. Find out how implementing a core-satellite portfolio with a direct indexing core may improve tax efficiency.
Having the best referral in the world doesn’t convert a prospect. It’s your website that seals the deal, not only for referrals but for organic prospects as well.
Many financial advisors exhibit a risk-averse attitude, leading to missed opportunities for growth and innovation.
With questions swirling around Federal Reserve policy, the state of the economy and the US presidential race, at least one thing seems clear on Wall Street: spending on artificial intelligence remains a central priority.
We explore how strong fundamentals and a resilient economy may position high-yield bonds as a potentially compelling choice in today’s fluctuating market.
It's been 38 years since I began my career on Wall Street and the lessons I learned along the way from some all-time investment greats always hold true.
Are the “Mega-Cap” stocks dead? Maybe. But there are four reasons why they could be staged for a comeback. The recent market correction from the July peak certainly got investors’ attention and rattled the more extreme complacency.
Powell will hint at normalizing monetary policy, but at a measured pace.
Most DC plan participants pursue retirement readiness unassisted, but few grasp what’s required, according to our latest survey.
A popular yen-centered carry trade that blew up spectacularly two weeks ago is staging a comeback.
Quant traders at Man Group Plc are betting that unlocking the secrets of private markets will give them an edge in trading public stocks.
With US equities on the rebound, this summer’s selloff is looking more like a pause in the bull market than the beginning of its end.
Advisors are offering customized holistic wealth management to their clients and their families to help ensure an orderly transition of wealth
Warren Buffett’s longtime business partner Charlie Munger brought quality to value investing. Now Buffett is bringing value to quality investing.
Your portfolio can be the key to managing cash and maintaining flexibility.
The tea trade has lessons for today’s global commerce.
Families may want to consider a comprehensive plan for college, including actions to take during the high school years, and consider how a 529 plan can help guide savings. Our Bill Cass offers details on college planning.
Skeptics had long warned that artificial intelligence-related stocks were in a bubble. Now that some of the froth has come off, bulls see an opportunity.
Previously reliable recession signals have not worked in this cycle.
MSCI Inc. continues to cull China stocks from its indexes, setting the stage for a further drop in the nation’s share of a key emerging-market benchmark.
US producer prices rose in July by less than forecast, reflecting the first decline in services costs this year amid an ongoing moderation in inflationary pressures.
The Bank of Japan needs to proceed cautiously.
Slower employment cements the case for the Fed to start a series of rate cuts.
On Monday morning, investors woke up to plunging stock markets as the “Yen Carry Trade” blew up. While media headlines suggested the sell-off was due to fears of a recession, slowing employment growth, or fears over Israel and Iran, such is not the case.
When I was in high school, I really wanted a car. My loving parents took every situation as an opportunity to teach. They told me that if I wanted a car, I would have to earn it.
Investors can still extract yield while adding core bond exposure with the NEOS Enhanced Income Aggregate Bond ETF (BNDI).
Back in June, a mystery investor made a record wager on long-dated Treasuries, creating waves in the ETF market where trading pros seek clues about sentiment on Wall Street. Now the firm behind that bet has revealed itself, and says its recession call is finally coming to fruition.
As the number of Americans retiring in other countries continues to grow, our Bill Cass shares five considerations for individuals planning to retire abroad.
Four interlinked principles form a compelling investment philosophy for uncovering promising growth companies.
Over the past 20 years, the corporate bond market has experienced an evolution driven by cycles, regulatory shifts, and changing demand.
Recent developments in the labor market triggered the Sahm Rule, an economic indicator known for predicting the onset of recessions. Developed by economist Claudia Sahm, it signals a recession when the 3-month average of the unemployment rate rises by at least 0.5 percentage points above its low from the previous 12 months.
As the late George HW Bush once said, “What is it about August?”
Until recently, the prevailing market narrative since October was that the Fed was in a "pivot" to eventual rate cuts.
Savvy advisors that blend classic prospecting methods with modern tech are not only reviving successful strategies from the past but are also setting the stage for sustainable future growth.
North American trade is booming, but gains have been uneven.
Take the market narrative with a grain of salt and look at the fundamentals in determining your outlook for the economy and financial markets. We ultimately believe this soft patch of data will prove to a be a ‘growth scare,’ not a ‘recession reality.’
Our monthly workforce analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for July. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, its highest level since October 2021. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 114K.
The strong currency is neither a blessing nor a curse.
Roth conversions, when executed with precision and strategic foresight, can significantly enhance a client’s financial plan.
On July 31, the U.S. Treasury released its most recent Quarterly Refunding Announcement which revealed its financing strategy, presenting both positive and restrictive elements for global liquidity.
We have been talking about resiliency-driven inflation for the past several weeks. As the US and its Western allies realign supply chains to strengthen economic resiliency, the cost of certain goods and commodities will go up.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation and interest rates in major markets.
Today’s passive index investing requires active choices, as customization and innovations in index funds have resulted in new considerations for investors and the potential for greater control.
Third party custodians provide a critical back-office function for RIAs – and beyond the important job of safeguarding client assets, they have more sway over operations than one might initially expect.
It’s hard to work daily with and for someone who clearly doesn’t like you or want you to succeed.
When dealing with millennials and often with more seasoned investors, it’s important to understand their barriers to acceptance of a boring approach to investing.
I chaired an international economics conference in Canada earlier this month. Delegates from all over the world attended to discuss the issues of the day. Following is an abridged version of the meeting summary that I offered during the closing session.
This article examines both breaches at AT&T, discusses how the data can be used to perpetrate detailed deep fakes, and shares how you can advise your clients and staff to protect your clients’ investments.
The US Department of Labor (DOL) offers eight tips for advisors to use to review target-date funds. Our Mike Dullaghan illustrates how to use the DOL tips in preparation for plan review season.
You don’t need a fortune to channel your giving through a DAF. These funds are designed for everyday people who want to make charitable donations in a way that offers tax efficiency, flexibility, and choices.
Yes, the market could continue to rotate massively from large-cap to small and mid-capitalization companies. However, given the current levels of bullish sentiment and allocations against a backdrop of weakening economic data and widening spreads, this suggests the current rotation may be nothing more than a significant short-covering rally.
As we approach the end of the fiscal year, investors should be focusing on the Treasury General Account as one factor of many that may impact global liquidity, and in turn, market performance in the coming two quarters.
Despite all the hoopla surrounding technology stocks in the first half of the year, software names struggled.
Increasing the tax efficiency of a retiree’s income portfolio with the NEOS ETF suite may offer several benefits.
I almost exclusively talk about stocks here in Dividend Digest because dividends are at the root of my strategy. But most income investing includes some level of exposure to debt.
Wealth Management
Risks Facing Bullish Investors As September Begins
Since the end of the “Yen Carry Trade” correction in August, bullish positioning has returned with a vengeance, yet two key risks face investors as September begins. While bullish positioning and optimism are ingredients for a rising market, there is more to this story.
Volatility Strikes in September: Our Thoughts
We think the decline in the S&P 500 Index on Tuesday may be more technical than fundamental.
Why Singapore Is Bringing Blockchain Into Mutual Funds
Most people see “blockchain” and “funds” in the same sentence and immediately think of pools of money betting on cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ether. That isn’t how Singapore sees the utility of distributed ledgers.
Musings on the Money Supply
Money can still be a factor in inflation.
Navigating Financial Aid: New FAFSA Rules and Tips for Families
Recent changes to the FAFSA form and process include a simpler form, fewer questions and a revised eligibility formula. Our Bill Cass highlights what you need to know to apply for federal financial aid for college.
Rate Cuts Could Stoke Dividend Stock Renaissance
High interest rates have had the predictable effect of restraining the performances of dividend stocks and related exchange traded funds.
US Yield Curve Disinverts as Soft Labor Data Fuels Fed Cut Bets
A key segment of the US Treasury yield curve briefly turned positive as weaker-than-anticipated labor-market data bolstered bets on steep interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
China’s Bond Market Rally
A bright spot in Chinese investment could spell trouble for its financial institutions.
Showcase Your Value With Financial Planning Process Infographics
Using infographics to illustrate your firm’s financial planning process is a great way to show the value you provide. Whether in your marketing materials, initial consultations, or new client onboarding, these visuals can help set the stage for a successful and growing relationship.
Navigating the Investment Landscape: Insights and Warnings
In this edition, Harold Evensky explores the challenges facing sustainable and active funds, the implications of the new DOL Fiduciary Rule, and the value of long-term performance projections. With candid observations and critical analysis--read on to gain perspective on navigating the complex world of investing, the importance of risk management, and the role of fiduciary advisors in securing your financial future.
Evidence-Based Persuasion Secrets
Successful advisors are persuasive. They understand persuasion is critical to converting prospects into clients and keeping them as clients.
Nvidia Rout Has Traders Watching $100-Share Level Amid ‘Vacuum’
The sharp selloff that wiped a record $279 billion off Nvidia Corp.’s market value on Tuesday has traders scouring charts for clues as to where the pain might end.
Reinforcing Economic Foundations
The case for infrastructure investment is rising, but so are its costs.
Listening Is Not Enough to Make the Sale
You did everything by the book. Your prospect talked and you listened. But listening alone is not enough to build trust.
Sizzling ETF Flows in Manic Markets Fuel a $609 Billion Haul
Half your coworkers might have just spent August in Europe, but there were no holiday doldrums in the booming world of ETFs.
Cliff Asness Is ‘Old Man Whinging’ as Markets Get Less Efficient
Cliff Asness says he sounds like an “old man whinging,” but that’s not stopping him from writing 23 pages on his latest thesis: Financial markets these days aren’t what they were.
The Pecking Order of 401(K) Plan Design: A Bird’s Eye View
Establishing the optimal workplace retirement plan follows a pecking order, which starts by prioritizing plan design over investments. Our Mike Dullaghan discusses the process.
The Tax Implications of Your Short-Term Investments
As tax season draws nearer, advisors and investors increasingly look to their portfolio to optimize exposures for taxation purposes.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income Up 0.2% in July
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.32% in July and is up 4.1% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.16% month-over-month and up 1.6% year-over-year.
Consider Packing a Legal Safety Net Before Students Leave for College
College students may want to secure legal documents to ensure their parents can access important information and help them in medical emergencies. Our Bill Cass highlights the key documents students can prepare before leaving for college.
Fundamentals Matter
While short-term fluctuations and sudden selloffs have tested the markets, key indicators such as corporate profits, employment data, and economic resilience have held firm.
Analysis of Fed Chair Powell’s Comments: September Cut Likely, but What After?
We analyze Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell’s comments about the potential for rate cuts in September and beyond.
Sweet Spot
A Soft Landing Scenario Is Still a Realistic Base Case.
Global Tourism Regains Lost Ground
The 19th Century American author Mark Twain once said: “Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one’s lifetime.”
Bringing Wives into the Discussion
To understand the importance of involving both spouses in the discussion, we asked our very own Vicky Frye, Director of FinTech Innovation and Cybersecurity Strategies at WMGNA, for her comments on this topic.
Bridging the AI Confidence Gap Between the C-Suite and Advisors
The potential of AI in wealth management is undeniable, but realizing that potential requires more than just adopting the latest technology. By engaging advisors in the process, providing thorough training, and setting realistic expectations, firms can bridge the gap between C-suite optimism and frontline reality.
How Do You Decide to “Graduate” a Client?
As tough as financial advisors claim to be, we still get nervous about “firing” clients, too. When we say “graduate,” that is our delicate way of handling an uncomfortable situation. It’s a cheap, but effective way to massage the misgivings that we have about terminating client relationships.
Successful Change Needs Buy-In from Staff, Clients
To make an organizational change effort stick, you have to start with the people, not with KPIs or quotas. If you want to move your firm to a client-centric model, you need to consider influencing factors such as your organizational structure and culture...
Getting to the Bottom of “Greedflation”
That anthem was characteristic of the era. After two decades of economic frustration, free market policies had prompted a surge of growth and a bull market for stocks. The captains of industry were corporate raiders, who purchased companies, slashed expenses, pushed up prices and reaped outsized rewards.
How Price Controls Could Harm the U.S. Economy Under a President Harris
This week, before she accepted the Democratic Party’s nomination for president, Vice President Kamala Harris threw her support behind President Joe Biden’s tax proposals for 2025, which include a steep 44.6% capital gains rate and an unprecedented 25% tax on unrealized gains.
Why Use Model Portfolios? So Advisors Can Focus on What Matters Most
Over nearly three decades, I’ve been dedicated to the sport of running. For the last five years, I chased the elusive goal of qualifying for the Boston Marathon, my ultimate aspiration. It wasn’t until I sought the expertise of a professional coach that I finally achieved this dream.
Private Credit Loses Ground in Fight for Family Office Money
It’s the hottest trade on Wall Street. Everywhere you turn, money managers have upped their investments in private credit, helping the asset class balloon into a $1.7 trillion industry. But there’s one group where interest appears to already be waning — the family office.
Corporate Bond Outlook Is Solid
Recent economic data points have been mixed. On the more positive side of the ledger, there’s evidence that inflation is cooling and consumer spending remains sturdy. Conversely, the jobs market is cooling.
Is Elon Musk the Bankers’ Moby Dick? Not Yet
Call me Ishmael. The biggest question about an investment banking client like Elon Musk is whether he turns out to be a Moby Dick.
College-Bound High School Juniors and Seniors Focus On a Strong Finish
The last two years of high school can be particularly important as students approach the final college decision. Our Bill Cass highlights some action items for students and parents.
Strengthen Your Client’s Core with Direct Indexing
Active management can lead to high portfolio turnover and a higher tax bill. Wealth managers might feel that an active strategy could be too inefficient for clients who are sensitive to taxes. Find out how implementing a core-satellite portfolio with a direct indexing core may improve tax efficiency.
The Three Things Your Website Needs to Convert Referrals
Having the best referral in the world doesn’t convert a prospect. It’s your website that seals the deal, not only for referrals but for organic prospects as well.
Transform Risk Into Opportunity
Many financial advisors exhibit a risk-averse attitude, leading to missed opportunities for growth and innovation.
Nvidia Eyes Return to Record as AI Spending Bonanza Continues
With questions swirling around Federal Reserve policy, the state of the economy and the US presidential race, at least one thing seems clear on Wall Street: spending on artificial intelligence remains a central priority.
High-Yield Bonds: Exploring Opportunities in a Volatile Market
We explore how strong fundamentals and a resilient economy may position high-yield bonds as a potentially compelling choice in today’s fluctuating market.
Songs of Experience: Reminiscences of a Strategist
It's been 38 years since I began my career on Wall Street and the lessons I learned along the way from some all-time investment greats always hold true.
Are Mega-Caps About To Make A Mega-Comeback?
Are the “Mega-Cap” stocks dead? Maybe. But there are four reasons why they could be staged for a comeback. The recent market correction from the July peak certainly got investors’ attention and rattled the more extreme complacency.
A Script for Jackson Hole
Powell will hint at normalizing monetary policy, but at a measured pace.
Should Retirement Income Planning Be “Do It Yourself” or “Just Do It for Me”?
Most DC plan participants pursue retirement readiness unassisted, but few grasp what’s required, according to our latest survey.
Carry Trade That Blew Up Markets Is Attracting Hedge Funds Again
A popular yen-centered carry trade that blew up spectacularly two weeks ago is staging a comeback.
Man Group Quants Are Riding Private Boom for Public Stock Trades
Quant traders at Man Group Plc are betting that unlocking the secrets of private markets will give them an edge in trading public stocks.
What Panic? Stocks Are Quickly on Way Back to Record Highs
With US equities on the rebound, this summer’s selloff is looking more like a pause in the bull market than the beginning of its end.
Value of an Advisor: C is for Customized Experience and Family Wealth Planning
Advisors are offering customized holistic wealth management to their clients and their families to help ensure an orderly transition of wealth
Buffett’s Apple Sale Brings Value Back to Quality Investing
Warren Buffett’s longtime business partner Charlie Munger brought quality to value investing. Now Buffett is bringing value to quality investing.
Why the “No Debt” Approach Isn’t Optimal for Every Investor
Your portfolio can be the key to managing cash and maintaining flexibility.
Tea-Conomics
The tea trade has lessons for today’s global commerce.
Kick Off Your College Planning During the First Two Years of High School
Families may want to consider a comprehensive plan for college, including actions to take during the high school years, and consider how a 529 plan can help guide savings. Our Bill Cass offers details on college planning.
Receding AI Stock Euphoria Has Bulls Seeing Some Opportunities
Skeptics had long warned that artificial intelligence-related stocks were in a bubble. Now that some of the froth has come off, bulls see an opportunity.
Rules Are Meant to Be Broken
Previously reliable recession signals have not worked in this cycle.
MSCI Trims China’s Index Presence by Removing DozenAbhishek Vishnoi and Sangmi Chas of Stocks
MSCI Inc. continues to cull China stocks from its indexes, setting the stage for a further drop in the nation’s share of a key emerging-market benchmark.
US Producer Prices Rise Less Than Forecast, Dragged by Services
US producer prices rose in July by less than forecast, reflecting the first decline in services costs this year amid an ongoing moderation in inflationary pressures.
Bank of Japan's Hawkish Tilt
The Bank of Japan needs to proceed cautiously.
Hot Summer, Cool Data
Slower employment cements the case for the Fed to start a series of rate cuts.
Yen Carry Trade Blows Up Sparking Global Sell-Off
On Monday morning, investors woke up to plunging stock markets as the “Yen Carry Trade” blew up. While media headlines suggested the sell-off was due to fears of a recession, slowing employment growth, or fears over Israel and Iran, such is not the case.
From Sports Car to Minivan: Direct Indexing Can Help You Give Your Clients the Ride They Want
When I was in high school, I really wanted a car. My loving parents took every situation as an opportunity to teach. They told me that if I wanted a car, I would have to earn it.
Get Bond Appreciation While Still Extracting Yield
Investors can still extract yield while adding core bond exposure with the NEOS Enhanced Income Aggregate Bond ETF (BNDI).
Investor Behind Record $2.7 Billion Bond Bet Says Recession Near
Back in June, a mystery investor made a record wager on long-dated Treasuries, creating waves in the ETF market where trading pros seek clues about sentiment on Wall Street. Now the firm behind that bet has revealed itself, and says its recession call is finally coming to fruition.
From Dreaming to Living: What You Need to Know About Retiring Abroad
As the number of Americans retiring in other countries continues to grow, our Bill Cass shares five considerations for individuals planning to retire abroad.
Lessons from Equity Investing with a Very Long Lens on Growth
Four interlinked principles form a compelling investment philosophy for uncovering promising growth companies.
Notes from the Desk: The Evolution of the Corporate Bond Market
Over the past 20 years, the corporate bond market has experienced an evolution driven by cycles, regulatory shifts, and changing demand.
Be Aware of the Sahm Rule Trigger, but Don’t Panic
Recent developments in the labor market triggered the Sahm Rule, an economic indicator known for predicting the onset of recessions. Developed by economist Claudia Sahm, it signals a recession when the 3-month average of the unemployment rate rises by at least 0.5 percentage points above its low from the previous 12 months.
Why Did the Market Drop So Fast? Making Rational Sense of an Irrational Market
As the late George HW Bush once said, “What is it about August?”
Notes From the Desk: Market Focus Shifts to Fears of an Economic Contraction
Until recently, the prevailing market narrative since October was that the Fed was in a "pivot" to eventual rate cuts.
Classic Rewind: How RIA Prospecting Tactics From the Past Are Making a Comeback
Savvy advisors that blend classic prospecting methods with modern tech are not only reviving successful strategies from the past but are also setting the stage for sustainable future growth.
Reflecting on the Impact of the USMCA
North American trade is booming, but gains have been uneven.
Putting the Recent Equity Weakness Into Perspective
Take the market narrative with a grain of salt and look at the fundamentals in determining your outlook for the economy and financial markets. We ultimately believe this soft patch of data will prove to a be a ‘growth scare,’ not a ‘recession reality.’
U.S. Workforce Analysis: July 2024
Our monthly workforce analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for July. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, its highest level since October 2021. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 114K.
The Dollar's Ascent
The strong currency is neither a blessing nor a curse.
Simplifying Roth Conversions: Insights for Financial Advisors
Roth conversions, when executed with precision and strategic foresight, can significantly enhance a client’s financial plan.
Recent Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcements a Mixed Bag for Global Liquidity
On July 31, the U.S. Treasury released its most recent Quarterly Refunding Announcement which revealed its financing strategy, presenting both positive and restrictive elements for global liquidity.
Is the Age of Plenty Over?
We have been talking about resiliency-driven inflation for the past several weeks. As the US and its Western allies realign supply chains to strengthen economic resiliency, the cost of certain goods and commodities will go up.
Global Economic Outlook: Staying Focused
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for growth, inflation and interest rates in major markets.
Index Investing as an Active Decision: Implications for Equity Investors
Today’s passive index investing requires active choices, as customization and innovations in index funds have resulted in new considerations for investors and the potential for greater control.
Does Your Custodian Cater to Your RIA’s Business Model?
Third party custodians provide a critical back-office function for RIAs – and beyond the important job of safeguarding client assets, they have more sway over operations than one might initially expect.
Navigating Differences in Personality Types
It’s hard to work daily with and for someone who clearly doesn’t like you or want you to succeed.
We Need to Make “Boring” Cool
When dealing with millennials and often with more seasoned investors, it’s important to understand their barriers to acceptance of a boring approach to investing.
The View From Canada
I chaired an international economics conference in Canada earlier this month. Delegates from all over the world attended to discuss the issues of the day. Following is an abridged version of the meeting summary that I offered during the closing session.
The AT&T Data Breach: How Advisors Can Protect Their Firm and Their Clients
This article examines both breaches at AT&T, discusses how the data can be used to perpetrate detailed deep fakes, and shares how you can advise your clients and staff to protect your clients’ investments.
Maximizing 401(k) Plans: How Financial Advisors Can leverage the DOL’s Target-Date Tips
The US Department of Labor (DOL) offers eight tips for advisors to use to review target-date funds. Our Mike Dullaghan illustrates how to use the DOL tips in preparation for plan review season.
Why Giving Through Donor Advised Funds Is Not Just For The Wealthy
You don’t need a fortune to channel your giving through a DAF. These funds are designed for everyday people who want to make charitable donations in a way that offers tax efficiency, flexibility, and choices.
The Bull Market – Could It Just Be Getting Started?
Yes, the market could continue to rotate massively from large-cap to small and mid-capitalization companies. However, given the current levels of bullish sentiment and allocations against a backdrop of weakening economic data and widening spreads, this suggests the current rotation may be nothing more than a significant short-covering rally.
Global Liquidity and the Treasury General Account: A Potential Constraint on Market Performance
As we approach the end of the fiscal year, investors should be focusing on the Treasury General Account as one factor of many that may impact global liquidity, and in turn, market performance in the coming two quarters.
Software Stocks Primed to Be Contrarian Bets
Despite all the hoopla surrounding technology stocks in the first half of the year, software names struggled.
How to Augment Your Retirement Income for Tax Efficiency
Increasing the tax efficiency of a retiree’s income portfolio with the NEOS ETF suite may offer several benefits.
Every Dividend Investor Needs This in Their Portfolio
I almost exclusively talk about stocks here in Dividend Digest because dividends are at the root of my strategy. But most income investing includes some level of exposure to debt.