The U.S. economy may be heading into choppy waters, and investors might be wise to buckle up.
Recent growth data have been muddled and subject to conflicting interpretations. There have been mixed signals from leading indicators and hard data and divergent readings across major economies.
Candidate tax policies could affect municipal bonds, but the bigger picture is important too.
In the week ending August 31st, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 227,000, falling to a two-month low. This represents a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's figure and is better than the 231,000 economists were expecting.
In this edition, Harold Evensky explores the challenges facing sustainable and active funds, the implications of the new DOL Fiduciary Rule, and the value of long-term performance projections. With candid observations and critical analysis--read on to gain perspective on navigating the complex world of investing, the importance of risk management, and the role of fiduciary advisors in securing your financial future.
After a bit of an early-August swoon, the stock market came roaring back in the last few weeks of the month. The S&P 500 finished up 2.4%, though certainly in the early days of August, that did not feel like a particularly likely outcome. In client conversations a few days into the selloff, our feeling was to stay put and not tinker with the portfolios we suggested in early August.
The August S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ fell to 47.9 in August from 49.6 in July, indicating a modest deterioration in business conditions for a second straight month. The latest reading was just below the forecasted reading of 48.0 and is the index's lowest level of the year.
As I write this, gold continues to trade above $2,500 an ounce after surging past the psychologically important level for the first time ever in mid-August. For seasoned gold mining investors, this should be a moment of validation. After all, the yellow metal has long been seen as the ultimate hedge against economic uncertainty.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.32% in July and is up 4.1% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.16% month-over-month and up 1.6% year-over-year.
When global equity markets tumbled in early August, investors got a glimpse of what a deeper correction could like for the US giants, and it wasn’t pretty. The so-called Magnificent Seven have dominated US and global equity market returns since late 2022—and valuations have soared—as earnings growth rebounded and on expectations that they will be the big winners from artificial intelligence (AI).
College students may want to secure legal documents to ensure their parents can access important information and help them in medical emergencies. Our Bill Cass highlights the key documents students can prepare before leaving for college.
If your home and/or its contents are destroyed or damaged by a disaster such as a fire or flood, the insurance company will need a complete list of what was lost. Do you have such a list?
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR)unexpectedly fell 5.5% in July to 70.2, its lowest level in history. Pending home sales were expected to inch up 0.2% from the previous month. The index is down 8.5% from one year ago.
HSAs are increasingly coming into use. They are a more tax-efficient means of investing, withdrawing money to cover large healthcare expenses, or simply preparing for higher medical costs in one’s later years.
Will 2030 DC plans perform better at preparing U.S. workers for retirement?
The healthcare sector offers a compelling mix of defensive characteristics and growth potential driven by innovation. It also features ample dispersion that presents stock pickers with an opportunity to parse potential leaders and laggards in pursuit of above-market return.
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. became the first US company outside of the tech sector to surpass $1 trillion in market value.
California wants some insurance against pump prices. But in proposing that oil companies there hold a minimum stockpile of fuels, the state is also, and less obviously, seeking insurance against the complications of its own energy policies. In seeking to kill off gasoline demand but ensure suppliers stay engaged for years to come, the state is confronting one of the central challenges of the energy transition.
To understand the importance of involving both spouses in the discussion, we asked our very own Vicky Frye, Director of FinTech Innovation and Cybersecurity Strategies at WMGNA, for her comments on this topic.
We all knew it was coming…and in Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said it will come next month. He said, “the time has come,” and the futures markets have priced in either a 25 or 50 basis point rate cut at the meeting on September 18.
The market’s 8.5% decline during August sent shockwaves through the media and investors. The drop raised concerns about whether this was the start of a larger correction or a temporary pullback. However, a powerful reversal, driven by investor buying and corporate share repurchases, halted the decline, leading many to wonder if the worst is behind us.
This week, before she accepted the Democratic Party’s nomination for president, Vice President Kamala Harris threw her support behind President Joe Biden’s tax proposals for 2025, which include a steep 44.6% capital gains rate and an unprecedented 25% tax on unrealized gains.
After market expectations spiked to nearly five interest rate cuts in 2024 based on disappointing labor market report early in the month, reassuring data in the form of Retail Sales and Unemployment Claims have quelled market Markets have eased expectations for interest rate cuts, pricing closer to four cuts as of the end of last week.
Robust U.S. stock momentum hit a slowdown in the third quarter, even as strong company earnings results rolled in. Fundamental Equities’ U.S. and Developed Markets CIO Carrie King weighs in on the incongruence with three reflections from Q2 earnings season.
Existing home sales rose for the first time since February, ending a four-month skid. According to the data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales were up 1.3% from June, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.95 million units in July. This figure came in just above the expected 3.94 million. Existing home sales are down 2.5% compared to one year ago.
Amid expectations of rate cuts from major central banks, managers are increasing their exposure to more cyclical and value-oriented names, including autos, transportation, and short-cycle industrials.
Since the end of the financial crisis, economists, analysts, and the Federal Reserve have continued to predict a return to higher levels of economic growth. The hope remains that the Trillions of dollars spent during the pandemic-driven economic shutdown will turn into lasting organic economic growth.
Many financial advisors exhibit a risk-averse attitude, leading to missed opportunities for growth and innovation.
The worst of the housing affordability crisis is behind us. But the past two years have shown that housing isn’t a bubble that is likely to pop overnight, nor can prices be forced lower in the short term with government intervention. Rising incomes, falling mortgage rates, more construction and thoughtful policy will slowly chip away at the affordability problem.
US job growth in the year through March was likely far less robust than initially estimated, which risks fueling concerns that the Federal Reserve is falling further behind the curve to lower interest rates.
Are the “Mega-Cap” stocks dead? Maybe. But there are four reasons why they could be staged for a comeback. The recent market correction from the July peak certainly got investors’ attention and rattled the more extreme complacency.
Silver is an important component of solar photovoltaic (PV) panels, meaning that for China to reach its ambitious climate targets, it must import massive amounts of the white metal. In June alone, China spent over $228 million on silver, a new monthly record based on Bloomberg data going back to 2009.
While high rates can make borrowing costlier and slow down housing markets, they also open favorable opportunities in financial products like annuities. In other words, annuities are back and stronger than ever before!
Head fake is a trading term, too. Some bit of information convinces investors a market is going to move a certain way. They reposition their portfolios accordingly… just in time to find out the information was wrong. Oof.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) decreased in July to its lowest level since April 2020. The index fell 0.6% from the previous month to 100.4, marking its fifth consecutive monthly decline.
Just as bond traders grow more assured that inflation is finally under control, a camp of investors is quietly building up protection against the risk of a future spike in prices.
Quant traders at Man Group Plc are betting that unlocking the secrets of private markets will give them an edge in trading public stocks.
Advisors are offering customized holistic wealth management to their clients and their families to help ensure an orderly transition of wealth
Builder confidence fell further in August as a lack of affordability and buyer hesitation continue to slow down the market. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) dropped to 39 this month, its lowest level of the year. The latest reading came was below the forecast of 43.
It's a good time to revisit which equity market sectors are defensive themes. Certain products are nondiscretionary we can't live without.
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
A Universal Basic Income (UBI) sounds great in theory. According to a previous study by the Roosevelt Institute, it could permanently increase the U.S. economy by trillions of dollars. While such socialistic policies sound great in theory, history, and data, they aren’t the economic saviors they are touted to be.
Inflation cooled for a fourth straight month in July, dropping to its lowest level since March 2021. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index fell to 2.9% year-over-year, lower than the expected 3.0% growth. Additionally, core CPI cooled to 3.2% as expected.
Franklin Templeton’s David Mann highlights the firm’s diverse ETF lineup and offers perspective on stocks, bonds, and crypto. VettaFi’s Zeno Mercer goes in-depth on the “Magnificent Seven” stocks.
The tricky last yards of closing in on — and then maintaining — the hallowed 2% inflation target that all the major central banks adhere to requires a change of tactics. Over the past two years, a mantra of economic data-dependency has been drummed into us, keeping interest rates higher for longer.
The acquisition further expands Janus Henderson’s private credit capabilities and complements Janus Henderson’s existing highly successful securitized credit franchise and expertise in public asset-backed securitized markets, and further expands our capabilities into the private markets.
On Monday morning, investors woke up to plunging stock markets as the “Yen Carry Trade” blew up. While media headlines suggested the sell-off was due to fears of a recession, slowing employment growth, or fears over Israel and Iran, such is not the case.
On Monday, global equities and digital assets underwent a dramatic selloff as the unwinding of the Japanese yen carry trade rattled markets. The S&P Global Broad Market Index (BMI), which measures the performance of more than 14,000 stocks around the world, retreated 3.3%, its worst trading day in over two years.
The Biden administration is nearly finished divvying up $39 billion in grants under the Chips and Science Act, the landmark bipartisan legislation aimed at revitalizing the domestic semiconductor industry. The bigger test still lies ahead.
High interest rates – the condition investors have had to contend with for over two years now – can be a drag on dividend stocks and ETFs.
Let's take a close look at July's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. The latest data shows that 82.8% of total employed workers are full-time (35+ hours) and 17.2% of total employed workers are part-time (<35 hours).
What does the ratio of unemployment claims tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?
Until recently, the prevailing market narrative since October was that the Fed was in a "pivot" to eventual rate cuts.
Join the experts at Amplify ETFs and learn how GLP-1's could revolutionize the weight loss drug market as well as a strategy that can give your portfolio exposure to a theme that could see significant growth in the coming years.
Economist Claudia Sahm developed the “Sahm Rule,” which states that the economy is in recession when the unemployment rate’s three-month average is a half percentage point above its 12-month low.
A recent mid-year strategist pulse check from Natixis revealed where strategists believe the top opportunities exist across markets.
What does a “private equity firm” do? You may not know or care. Yet one of these specialized companies might possibly own your favorite restaurant—or your hospital.
The July U.S. services purchasing managers' index (PMI) conducted by S&P Global came in at 55.0, just below the forecast of 56.0. The latest reading keeps the index in expansion territory for the 18th straight month.
Cryptocurrencies reeled from a bout of risk aversion in global markets on Monday, at one point sending Bitcoin down more than 16% and saddling second-ranked Ether with the steepest fall since 2021.
Treasury yields plunged below 4% this week for the first time since January on recession fears as global manufacturing activity contracted and hiring in the U.S. slowed dramatically in July.
When growth slows and rates fall, what will happen to an asset class with long-dated cash flows that are not very economically sensitive? Well, it is likely to strongly outperform. Ergo the short-term outlook for growth relative to value/small caps appear to be rosy.
The members of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) are probably not intimately familiar with Taylor Swift’s back catalogue. If they were, Swift’s hit “Cruel Summer” may have been ringing in their ears when cutting rates today for the first time since March 2020.
Global investors are gobbling up bonds that can be turned into stocks, feeling good about the prospects and return potentials of smaller companies.
Cassandras seldom get opportunities to be right about two disasters. Even the original Cassandra scored no notable victories after predicting the fall of Troy. But when a seer who successfully called one catastrophe warns of another coming, you might want to listen.
A fifth of Americans are on the hook for an 833% jump in the cost to ensure the lights stay on. The folks being paid that premium, mostly electricity generators in this instance, face that most welcome of problems: What to do with a windfall.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled central bank officials are on course to cut interest rates in September unless inflation progress stalls, citing risks of further labor-market weakening.
Predicting a labor-market downturn was never an easy task. But unique post-pandemic dynamics are making it even harder for economists to determine whether a recent uptick in the unemployment rate is signaling trouble ahead.
Reasonable Treasury debt ratios and more than enough buyers put Treasuries in a much better light than is commonly heard.
Jeff and Ron discuss the state of the economy, inflation, the bond and stock markets, and they outline, in broad terms, their current investments.
Our outlook on the 11 S&P 500 equity sectors.
Listen to enough politicians and it won’t take long to hear about the lack of “affordable” healthcare, drugs, daycare, and housing. This was going on long before inflation returned after COVID. Everyone wants affordable things.
On this episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth discussed the Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust (ETH) with Chuck Jaffe of “Money Life.” The pair talked about several topics regarding the fund to give investors a deeper understanding of the ETF overall.
President Joe Biden’s withdrawal and endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris has sent shockwaves through the political establishment, and while former President Donald Trump remains the frontrunner, the wind has certainly shifted in Harris’s favor.
The Momentum factor picked up where it left off at the end of the first quarter, turning in another standout performance in the April-through-June timeframe and ending the second quarter as the factor most relevant to positive performance.
The small cap rally has primarily been a de-risking event. It's unclear at this point whether it’s just a blip or the beginning of a new trend in market leadership.
Calamos understands time in the market vs. timing the market, but they also understand uncertainty surrounding election.
The bitcoin halving event in April 2024 reduced the block reward for miners, which is expected to increase bitcoin’s price.
Qraft Technologies took AI-driven investment products to the next level with the launch of the LG-QRAFT AI-Powered U.S. Large Cap Core ETF (LQAI) in November of 2023. The firm partnered with LG AI Research, an artificial intelligence (AI) research hub of South Korea's LG Group, to create LQAI.
While it's too early to declare small caps' recent outperformance as a meaningful trend shift, we continue to think high-quality companies and industries will likely perform well.
Financial advisors are increasingly turning to social media platforms to expand their client base. But in today’s rapidly evolving digital landscape, the traditional marketing funnel model – comprising awareness, engagement, and conversion stages – often falls short when applied to these platforms.
Travel insurance is a game-changer. It can keep a physically and emotionally stressful travel experience gone wrong from becoming a financial disaster. But only if you have the coverage you need.
VettaFi discusses the impact of hurricanes on energy companies — upstream, midstream, and downstream.
Writers who want to describe sweeping global change often quote the W.B. Yeats poem, titled "The Second Coming."
The inflation picture is getting better but we still have too much of it. Inflation is going but not gone, and probably won’t be gone anytime soon. Today I’ll tell you why.
A seismic shift is taking place in corporate America as even more companies announce plans to relocate from blue states to more business-friendly jurisdictions like Texas.
Relatively high yields mean investors who have been focusing on short-term securities wouldn't need to sacrifice much yield if they chose MBS to help limit their reinvestment risk.
Economists trimmed their US inflation projections through the first half of 2025 and see a slightly higher unemployment rate, a combination they expect will encourage the Federal Reserve to start lowering interest rates.
A Structured Protection ETF like CPRJ can offer robust tax benefits for investors seeking to move cash or get exposure to small-cap equities.
As the U.S. evolved from a goods economy to a services economy, expansionary cycles more than doubled in length. But a recent resurgence in manufacturing may be taking us back to the future.
Diverse stakeholders shared perspectives at AB’s Advancing Retirement Income symposium.
Healthcare
The Yield Curve Inversion Just Ended, but Economic Risks Remain
The U.S. economy may be heading into choppy waters, and investors might be wise to buckle up.
Back to School: Macro Cliff Notes and a Look Ahead
Recent growth data have been muddled and subject to conflicting interpretations. There have been mixed signals from leading indicators and hard data and divergent readings across major economies.
The 2024 US Election and Municipal Bonds: What to Know
Candidate tax policies could affect municipal bonds, but the bigger picture is important too.
Unemployment Claims Down 5K, Better Than Expected
In the week ending August 31st, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 227,000, falling to a two-month low. This represents a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's figure and is better than the 231,000 economists were expecting.
Navigating the Investment Landscape: Insights and Warnings
In this edition, Harold Evensky explores the challenges facing sustainable and active funds, the implications of the new DOL Fiduciary Rule, and the value of long-term performance projections. With candid observations and critical analysis--read on to gain perspective on navigating the complex world of investing, the importance of risk management, and the role of fiduciary advisors in securing your financial future.
Quant Street September 2024 Investor Letter: All Eyes on the Fed
After a bit of an early-August swoon, the stock market came roaring back in the last few weeks of the month. The S&P 500 finished up 2.4%, though certainly in the early days of August, that did not feel like a particularly likely outcome. In client conversations a few days into the selloff, our feeling was to stay put and not tinker with the portfolios we suggested in early August.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Lowest Level of 2024
The August S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ fell to 47.9 in August from 49.6 in July, indicating a modest deterioration in business conditions for a second straight month. The latest reading was just below the forecasted reading of 48.0 and is the index's lowest level of the year.
Why Gold Stocks Could Be a Contrarian Investor’s Dream Right Now
As I write this, gold continues to trade above $2,500 an ounce after surging past the psychologically important level for the first time ever in mid-August. For seasoned gold mining investors, this should be a moment of validation. After all, the yellow metal has long been seen as the ultimate hedge against economic uncertainty.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income Up 0.2% in July
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.32% in July and is up 4.1% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.16% month-over-month and up 1.6% year-over-year.
Expanding the Hunt for Attractively Valued Equities
When global equity markets tumbled in early August, investors got a glimpse of what a deeper correction could like for the US giants, and it wasn’t pretty. The so-called Magnificent Seven have dominated US and global equity market returns since late 2022—and valuations have soared—as earnings growth rebounded and on expectations that they will be the big winners from artificial intelligence (AI).
Consider Packing a Legal Safety Net Before Students Leave for College
College students may want to secure legal documents to ensure their parents can access important information and help them in medical emergencies. Our Bill Cass highlights the key documents students can prepare before leaving for college.
How to Get Full Protection From Your Homeowners Insurance
If your home and/or its contents are destroyed or damaged by a disaster such as a fire or flood, the insurance company will need a complete list of what was lost. Do you have such a list?
Pending Home Sales Unexpectedly Fall 5.5% in July to All-Time Low
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR)unexpectedly fell 5.5% in July to 70.2, its lowest level in history. Pending home sales were expected to inch up 0.2% from the previous month. The index is down 8.5% from one year ago.
How to Use HSAs for Tax-Advantaged Savings, Investments
HSAs are increasingly coming into use. They are a more tax-efficient means of investing, withdrawing money to cover large healthcare expenses, or simply preparing for higher medical costs in one’s later years.
8 Ways DC Plans Are Likely to Change by 2030
Will 2030 DC plans perform better at preparing U.S. workers for retirement?
Where It Pays to Get Choosy: A Case Study in Stock Selection
The healthcare sector offers a compelling mix of defensive characteristics and growth potential driven by innovation. It also features ample dispersion that presents stock pickers with an opportunity to parse potential leaders and laggards in pursuit of above-market return.
Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Tops $1 Trillion in Market Value
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. became the first US company outside of the tech sector to surpass $1 trillion in market value.
California’s EV Dreams Face an Awkward Reality
California wants some insurance against pump prices. But in proposing that oil companies there hold a minimum stockpile of fuels, the state is also, and less obviously, seeking insurance against the complications of its own energy policies. In seeking to kill off gasoline demand but ensure suppliers stay engaged for years to come, the state is confronting one of the central challenges of the energy transition.
Bringing Wives into the Discussion
To understand the importance of involving both spouses in the discussion, we asked our very own Vicky Frye, Director of FinTech Innovation and Cybersecurity Strategies at WMGNA, for her comments on this topic.
Rate Cuts on the Way
We all knew it was coming…and in Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said it will come next month. He said, “the time has come,” and the futures markets have priced in either a 25 or 50 basis point rate cut at the meeting on September 18.
Market Decline Over As Investors Buy The Dip
The market’s 8.5% decline during August sent shockwaves through the media and investors. The drop raised concerns about whether this was the start of a larger correction or a temporary pullback. However, a powerful reversal, driven by investor buying and corporate share repurchases, halted the decline, leading many to wonder if the worst is behind us.
How Price Controls Could Harm the U.S. Economy Under a President Harris
This week, before she accepted the Democratic Party’s nomination for president, Vice President Kamala Harris threw her support behind President Joe Biden’s tax proposals for 2025, which include a steep 44.6% capital gains rate and an unprecedented 25% tax on unrealized gains.
Macro Thoughts – Recalibration or Accommodation
After market expectations spiked to nearly five interest rate cuts in 2024 based on disappointing labor market report early in the month, reassuring data in the form of Retail Sales and Unemployment Claims have quelled market Markets have eased expectations for interest rate cuts, pricing closer to four cuts as of the end of last week.
Amid Solid Q2 Earnings, Volatility More About Sentiment Than Fundamentals
Robust U.S. stock momentum hit a slowdown in the third quarter, even as strong company earnings results rolled in. Fundamental Equities’ U.S. and Developed Markets CIO Carrie King weighs in on the incongruence with three reflections from Q2 earnings season.
Existing Home Sales Increase in July, Ending 4-Month Skid
Existing home sales rose for the first time since February, ending a four-month skid. According to the data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales were up 1.3% from June, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.95 million units in July. This figure came in just above the expected 3.94 million. Existing home sales are down 2.5% compared to one year ago.
August 2024 Active Management Insights: Positive Outlook for Cyclical and Value-Oriented Stocks
Amid expectations of rate cuts from major central banks, managers are increasing their exposure to more cyclical and value-oriented names, including autos, transportation, and short-cycle industrials.
Economic Growth Myth & Why Socialism Is Rising
Since the end of the financial crisis, economists, analysts, and the Federal Reserve have continued to predict a return to higher levels of economic growth. The hope remains that the Trillions of dollars spent during the pandemic-driven economic shutdown will turn into lasting organic economic growth.
Transform Risk Into Opportunity
Many financial advisors exhibit a risk-averse attitude, leading to missed opportunities for growth and innovation.
Homes Will Be Affordable Again – Just Not Anytime Soon
The worst of the housing affordability crisis is behind us. But the past two years have shown that housing isn’t a bubble that is likely to pop overnight, nor can prices be forced lower in the short term with government intervention. Rising incomes, falling mortgage rates, more construction and thoughtful policy will slowly chip away at the affordability problem.
Fed Confronts Up to a Million US Jobs Vanishing in Revision
US job growth in the year through March was likely far less robust than initially estimated, which risks fueling concerns that the Federal Reserve is falling further behind the curve to lower interest rates.
Are Mega-Caps About To Make A Mega-Comeback?
Are the “Mega-Cap” stocks dead? Maybe. But there are four reasons why they could be staged for a comeback. The recent market correction from the July peak certainly got investors’ attention and rattled the more extreme complacency.
The Fine Line Between Content Moderation and Censorship in the Digital Age
Silver is an important component of solar photovoltaic (PV) panels, meaning that for China to reach its ambitious climate targets, it must import massive amounts of the white metal. In June alone, China spent over $228 million on silver, a new monthly record based on Bloomberg data going back to 2009.
Fed to Cut Rates? Secure 17-Year High Annuity Rates Now
While high rates can make borrowing costlier and slow down housing markets, they also open favorable opportunities in financial products like annuities. In other words, annuities are back and stronger than ever before!
A Head Fake, Maybe
Head fake is a trading term, too. Some bit of information convinces investors a market is going to move a certain way. They reposition their portfolios accordingly… just in time to find out the information was wrong. Oof.
CB Leading Economic Index: Continues to Fall...But No Recession Signal
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) decreased in July to its lowest level since April 2020. The index fell 0.6% from the previous month to 100.4, marking its fifth consecutive monthly decline.
Global Bond Traders Are Seeking Protection From Inflation Threat
Just as bond traders grow more assured that inflation is finally under control, a camp of investors is quietly building up protection against the risk of a future spike in prices.
Man Group Quants Are Riding Private Boom for Public Stock Trades
Quant traders at Man Group Plc are betting that unlocking the secrets of private markets will give them an edge in trading public stocks.
Value of an Advisor: C is for Customized Experience and Family Wealth Planning
Advisors are offering customized holistic wealth management to their clients and their families to help ensure an orderly transition of wealth
NAHB Housing Market Index: Builder Confidence Hits Lowest Level of the Year
Builder confidence fell further in August as a lack of affordability and buyer hesitation continue to slow down the market. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) dropped to 39 this month, its lowest level of the year. The latest reading came was below the forecast of 43.
Disruptive Theme of the Week: Playing Defense
It's a good time to revisit which equity market sectors are defensive themes. Certain products are nondiscretionary we can't live without.
Inside the Consumer Price Index: July 2024
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
UBI – Tried, Tested And Failed As Expected
A Universal Basic Income (UBI) sounds great in theory. According to a previous study by the Roosevelt Institute, it could permanently increase the U.S. economy by trillions of dollars. While such socialistic policies sound great in theory, history, and data, they aren’t the economic saviors they are touted to be.
Consumer Price Index: Inflation Cools to 2.9% in July
Inflation cooled for a fourth straight month in July, dropping to its lowest level since March 2021. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index fell to 2.9% year-over-year, lower than the expected 3.0% growth. Additionally, core CPI cooled to 3.2% as expected.
Franklin Templeton’s David Mann on Stocks, Bonds, & Crypto
Franklin Templeton’s David Mann highlights the firm’s diverse ETF lineup and offers perspective on stocks, bonds, and crypto. VettaFi’s Zeno Mercer goes in-depth on the “Magnificent Seven” stocks.
Interest-Rate Cuts Rely on Inconvenient Truths About Inflation
The tricky last yards of closing in on — and then maintaining — the hallowed 2% inflation target that all the major central banks adhere to requires a change of tactics. Over the past two years, a mantra of economic data-dependency has been drummed into us, keeping interest rates higher for longer.
Janus Henderson Announces Acquisition of Global Private Credit Manager Victory Park Capital
The acquisition further expands Janus Henderson’s private credit capabilities and complements Janus Henderson’s existing highly successful securitized credit franchise and expertise in public asset-backed securitized markets, and further expands our capabilities into the private markets.
Yen Carry Trade Blows Up Sparking Global Sell-Off
On Monday morning, investors woke up to plunging stock markets as the “Yen Carry Trade” blew up. While media headlines suggested the sell-off was due to fears of a recession, slowing employment growth, or fears over Israel and Iran, such is not the case.
Understanding the Yen Carry Trade Impact on World Markets
On Monday, global equities and digital assets underwent a dramatic selloff as the unwinding of the Japanese yen carry trade rattled markets. The S&P Global Broad Market Index (BMI), which measures the performance of more than 14,000 stocks around the world, retreated 3.3%, its worst trading day in over two years.
With US Chips Act Money Mostly Divvied Up, the Real Test Begins
The Biden administration is nearly finished divvying up $39 billion in grants under the Chips and Science Act, the landmark bipartisan legislation aimed at revitalizing the domestic semiconductor industry. The bigger test still lies ahead.
Fed Could Spur Renewed Interest in Dividend Stocks
High interest rates – the condition investors have had to contend with for over two years now – can be a drag on dividend stocks and ETFs.
A Closer Look at Full-time and Part-time Employment
Let's take a close look at July's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. The latest data shows that 82.8% of total employed workers are full-time (35+ hours) and 17.2% of total employed workers are part-time (<35 hours).
Unemployment Claims as a Recession Indicator: July 2024
What does the ratio of unemployment claims tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?
Notes From the Desk: Market Focus Shifts to Fears of an Economic Contraction
Until recently, the prevailing market narrative since October was that the Fed was in a "pivot" to eventual rate cuts.
Investing in Weight Loss and Preventative Healthcare
Join the experts at Amplify ETFs and learn how GLP-1's could revolutionize the weight loss drug market as well as a strategy that can give your portfolio exposure to a theme that could see significant growth in the coming years.
The Sahm Rule, Employment, And Recession Indicators
Economist Claudia Sahm developed the “Sahm Rule,” which states that the economy is in recession when the unemployment rate’s three-month average is a half percentage point above its 12-month low.
Where Strategists See Market Opportunities in Second Half
A recent mid-year strategist pulse check from Natixis revealed where strategists believe the top opportunities exist across markets.
A Private Equity Firm Could Own Your Hospital – Why It Matters
What does a “private equity firm” do? You may not know or care. Yet one of these specialized companies might possibly own your favorite restaurant—or your hospital.
S&P Global Services PMI: Expands for 18th Straight Month
The July U.S. services purchasing managers' index (PMI) conducted by S&P Global came in at 55.0, just below the forecast of 56.0. The latest reading keeps the index in expansion territory for the 18th straight month.
Bitcoin Plunges, Ether Has Worst Drop Since 2021 as Crypto Sinks
Cryptocurrencies reeled from a bout of risk aversion in global markets on Monday, at one point sending Bitcoin down more than 16% and saddling second-ranked Ether with the steepest fall since 2021.
A Closely Followed Recession Indicator Was Just Triggered. What Happens Now?
Treasury yields plunged below 4% this week for the first time since January on recession fears as global manufacturing activity contracted and hiring in the U.S. slowed dramatically in July.
Quant Street July 2024 Investor Letter: Momentum Crash
When growth slows and rates fall, what will happen to an asset class with long-dated cash flows that are not very economically sensitive? Well, it is likely to strongly outperform. Ergo the short-term outlook for growth relative to value/small caps appear to be rosy.
Bank of England Cuts Rates Despite Taylor Swift Inflation Effect
The members of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) are probably not intimately familiar with Taylor Swift’s back catalogue. If they were, Swift’s hit “Cruel Summer” may have been ringing in their ears when cutting rates today for the first time since March 2020.
Even Convertible Arbitrageurs Are Abandoning China
Global investors are gobbling up bonds that can be turned into stocks, feeling good about the prospects and return potentials of smaller companies.
A $1 Trillion Time Bomb Is Ticking in the Housing Market
Cassandras seldom get opportunities to be right about two disasters. Even the original Cassandra scored no notable victories after predicting the fall of Troy. But when a seer who successfully called one catastrophe warns of another coming, you might want to listen.
Power Plants’ 833% Windfall May Unleash a Political Firestorm
A fifth of Americans are on the hook for an 833% jump in the cost to ensure the lights stay on. The folks being paid that premium, mostly electricity generators in this instance, face that most welcome of problems: What to do with a windfall.
Fed on Course for September Rate Cut as Risks to Job Market Grow
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled central bank officials are on course to cut interest rates in September unless inflation progress stalls, citing risks of further labor-market weakening.
US Job Market’s Pandemic Unwind Puts Recession Signals to Test
Predicting a labor-market downturn was never an easy task. But unique post-pandemic dynamics are making it even harder for economists to determine whether a recent uptick in the unemployment rate is signaling trouble ahead.
U.S. Treasuries and the Fiscal Situation
Reasonable Treasury debt ratios and more than enough buyers put Treasuries in a much better light than is commonly heard.
Muhlenkamp & Company Quarterly Letter – July 2024
Jeff and Ron discuss the state of the economy, inflation, the bond and stock markets, and they outline, in broad terms, their current investments.
Monthly Stock Sector Outlook
Our outlook on the 11 S&P 500 equity sectors.
Want Affordable Housing? Build Homes, Cut Government
Listen to enough politicians and it won’t take long to hear about the lack of “affordable” healthcare, drugs, daycare, and housing. This was going on long before inflation returned after COVID. Everyone wants affordable things.
Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust (ETH)
On this episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth discussed the Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust (ETH) with Chuck Jaffe of “Money Life.” The pair talked about several topics regarding the fund to give investors a deeper understanding of the ETF overall.
How 2024’S Election Could Reshape Your Portfolio
President Joe Biden’s withdrawal and endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris has sent shockwaves through the political establishment, and while former President Donald Trump remains the frontrunner, the wind has certainly shifted in Harris’s favor.
Q2 2024 Active Management Review: Momentum Keeps Rolling
The Momentum factor picked up where it left off at the end of the first quarter, turning in another standout performance in the April-through-June timeframe and ending the second quarter as the factor most relevant to positive performance.
The U.S. Small Cap Rally Has Been Fast and Furious. But Is It Here to Stay?
The small cap rally has primarily been a de-risking event. It's unclear at this point whether it’s just a blip or the beginning of a new trend in market leadership.
Markets Don’t Like Uncertainty. Prepare for the 2024 Election With Our Suite of ETFs
Calamos understands time in the market vs. timing the market, but they also understand uncertainty surrounding election.
Bitcoin Halving and Mining Update: Mid-2024 Perspective
The bitcoin halving event in April 2024 reduced the block reward for miners, which is expected to increase bitcoin’s price.
Qraft Teams With LG AI Research to Offer Pioneering AI-Powered ETF
Qraft Technologies took AI-driven investment products to the next level with the launch of the LG-QRAFT AI-Powered U.S. Large Cap Core ETF (LQAI) in November of 2023. The firm partnered with LG AI Research, an artificial intelligence (AI) research hub of South Korea's LG Group, to create LQAI.
Brea(d)th of Life: Market Leadership Shifts
While it's too early to declare small caps' recent outperformance as a meaningful trend shift, we continue to think high-quality companies and industries will likely perform well.
Six Reasons to Shift from Traditional Marketing Funnels, and What to Do Instead
Financial advisors are increasingly turning to social media platforms to expand their client base. But in today’s rapidly evolving digital landscape, the traditional marketing funnel model – comprising awareness, engagement, and conversion stages – often falls short when applied to these platforms.
How To Protect Yourself With The Right Travel Insurance Coverage
Travel insurance is a game-changer. It can keep a physically and emotionally stressful travel experience gone wrong from becoming a financial disaster. But only if you have the coverage you need.
How Hurricanes Can Impact the Energy Sector
VettaFi discusses the impact of hurricanes on energy companies — upstream, midstream, and downstream.
Things Fall Apart
Writers who want to describe sweeping global change often quote the W.B. Yeats poem, titled "The Second Coming."
Going, Not Gone
The inflation picture is getting better but we still have too much of it. Inflation is going but not gone, and probably won’t be gone anytime soon. Today I’ll tell you why.
Why The Smart Money Is Heading To Texas
A seismic shift is taking place in corporate America as even more companies announce plans to relocate from blue states to more business-friendly jurisdictions like Texas.
Why to Consider Mortgage-Backed Securities Now
Relatively high yields mean investors who have been focusing on short-term securities wouldn't need to sacrifice much yield if they chose MBS to help limit their reinvestment risk.
Economists Trim US Inflation Forecasts, Paving Way for Fed Cut
Economists trimmed their US inflation projections through the first half of 2025 and see a slightly higher unemployment rate, a combination they expect will encourage the Federal Reserve to start lowering interest rates.
Try a More Tax-Efficient Small-Cap Strategy
A Structured Protection ETF like CPRJ can offer robust tax benefits for investors seeking to move cash or get exposure to small-cap equities.
Third Quarter Equity Outlook
As the U.S. evolved from a goods economy to a services economy, expansionary cycles more than doubled in length. But a recent resurgence in manufacturing may be taking us back to the future.
Charting a Collective Path Forward on Retirement Income
Diverse stakeholders shared perspectives at AB’s Advancing Retirement Income symposium.