Charles Schwab

Stock buybacks have boomed in recent years. With corporate cash flows remaining high and potential rate cuts from the Fed, the trend appears set to continue.

Investors should be careful what they wish for in hoping for an aggressive Fed rate cutting cycle, given stocks tend to do better when cuts are slow and steady.

High-yield bonds have been one of the best-performing bond investments so far this year, but there may be better entry points down the road.

Our outlook on the 11 S&P 500 equity sectors.

Although we think it's too early to declare the economy is in a recession, risk is elevated. For investors who are concerned about a recession, municipal bonds may help buffer a portfolio.

It's been 38 years since I began my career on Wall Street and the lessons I learned along the way from some all-time investment greats always hold true.

Looking back at the 14 Fed rate cycles since 1929, certain patterns emerge. Still, investors instead need to examine what factors are driving the Fed now.

Markets were recently rattled by concerns the U.S. may slip into recession, but it's not clear that those fears are justified.

Bond prices whipsawed over the past month as volatility spiked across markets. What's next for fixed income markets?

Common wisdom is that consumers are pulling back on spending, but some green shoots are sprouting that might break ground as big retailers prepare to report second-quarter results.

Having been warned about the risk, investors now ask if the yen carry trade unwind is complete. Here's how far it might still go.

When the Federal Reserve lowers its key short-term interest rate, the impact isn't uniform across the financial universe.

What the Fed's monetary-policy tools signal about the market.

The softening trends in both inflation and labor data are sending a message that monetary policy is too restrictive.

The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged at the July meeting, but left the door open to rate cuts later this year.

Potential for another trade war fueled by a rise in global protectionist policies has investors revisiting the potential impact on stocks, inflation, and economic growth.

Our outlook on the 11 S&P 500 equity sectors.

While it's too early to declare small caps' recent outperformance as a meaningful trend shift, we continue to think high-quality companies and industries will likely perform well.

Relatively high yields mean investors who have been focusing on short-term securities wouldn't need to sacrifice much yield if they chose MBS to help limit their reinvestment risk.

As Microsoft, Meta Platforms, chipmakers, and others prepare to report earnings, the AI-driven cloud and chip industries may continue to dominate the technology storyline.

Discover what surprised markets in the second quarter of 2024 and understand the potential drivers of volatility for the third quarter.

Softening inflation supports the potential for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in coming months, but there are complexities below the surface.

Net interest income helped big banks, which begin reporting second-quarter earnings July 12, but there's concern about how long it can keep going.

Although the market is off to a rough start to the year, we think it should recover.

Almost every industry could ultimately incorporate AI, leaving a puzzle for investors seeking exposure. Using the internet as an example may provide some breadcrumbs.

The labor market continues to normalize and soften, but we think any further weakening might push the Fed to cut rates before the 2% inflation target is reached.

Owning only the U.S. stock market likely means being overweight Tech. But Tech stocks don't always outperform. Investors may want to look outside the U.S. to be diversified.

How to help position your portfolio in anticipation of an economic downturn.

Schwab Sector Views is our six- to 12-month outlook for stock sectors, which represent broad sectors of the economy. The Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR) combines a factor-based approach with a market and economic assessment to determine the ratings.

U.S. Treasury auctions are of interest lately due to growing U.S. debt and high interest rates. What are Treasury auctions, how do they work, and what should investors know?

This year's tale of two markets has underscored resilience at the index level but considerable weakness at the individual member level, leading to massive performance divergences.

Investment-grade corporate bonds remain attractive given their lower risk and relatively high yields. Long-term investors who can handle volatility might consider high-yield bonds and preferred securities, but we wouldn't suggest large positions in either.

A top risk for investors, elections may see a shift from centrist to more populist policy that could slow exports, raise inflation, and increase volatility in the global markets.

As expected, the Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged at the June meeting, but left the door open to rate cuts later this year if inflation declines.

Certain segments of the economy and stock market have experienced much stronger recoveries this year, underscoring a severe bifurcation between the "haves" and "have nots."

Looking into the second half of the year, we are optimistic that returns will be stronger, but also expect volatility to remain elevated.

Historically, the level of U.S. debt has had no correlation with the performance of the stock or bond markets.

As the global economy builds on its recovery this year, markets may see increased volatility due to divergent central bank policies, geopolitics and election outcomes.

Our outlook on the 11 S&P 500 equity sectors.

Discounted municipal bonds could expose you to unexpected taxes. Here's what to know before you buy.

Predicting Fed rate changes may be an inexact exercise, but understanding how the tools that do track it work can help investors weather uncertain markets.

The housing market looks to be on the road to recovery, but not without significant scarring for a considerable portion of potential homeowners.

The two largest emerging markets have taken very different paths, echoing the divergence in the economic and demographic landscape for these two countries.

Nvidia faces tough competition, law of large numbers as it prepares to report Wednesday.

Inflation data has continued to fuel uncertainty about when the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates. It's a question with global implications.

Walmart kicks off retail earnings season as high interest rates and inflation raise concerns over continued robust consumer spending.

Bank lending standards are still restrictive, underscoring the Fed's view that financial conditions remain tight and any resulting economic weakness could keep rate cuts in play.

Europe's mild recession is over, with growth expected to continue. Valuations for eurozone stocks remain attractive, offering the potential for further price appreciation.

As expected, the Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged at the May meeting, but left the door open to rate cuts later this year if inflation declines.

First-quarter earnings results have been healthy thus far, but key to the ongoing rally will be companies' recovery in revenue growth and strengthening forward guidance.

The AI-driven cloud and chip industries come into focus in the next month as Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and others prepare to report earnings.

We believe high-yield munis carry additional risks, but are worth consideration by investors in higher tax brackets who are comfortable taking added risks.

Dollar strength resulting from central banks' independent policies on rate cuts is unlikely to be tampered by China's deflation or geopolitics.

Our outlook on the 11 S&P 500 equity sectors.

Reviewing the basics can keep you from being caught off guard if your investment is returned to you before the stated maturity date.

While major indexes have seemingly been calm this year, there are notable and stealthy sector leadership shifts that have happened under the surface.

There are signs that some previous "rolling recessions" are starting to turn into rolling recoveries.

The first quarter was strong for major U.S. investment banks as the economy grew and M&A and IPO activity accelerated.

Earnings growth, a driver of long-term stock market performance, seems to be expanding beyond a handful of U.S. equities, supporting more broad-based market performance.

Emerging-market local-currency bonds have rallied sharply since last October, along with other risky segments of the global bond market. However, navigating the market can be challenging.

Inflation looks to still be trending lower, but a relatively stubborn decline will likely inspire the Fed to start cutting rates later (and slower) than expected.

Over the past 70 years, rising government debt generally has been accompanied by weaker economic activity. But it's not a simple relationship.

Our outlook is still positive, but it may be difficult to replicate the strong returns of the past few quarters.

Changes in China's economic policy tend not be communicated prior to implementation. What can we expect from China's stock market in response to any shifts?

There have been several big changes in the municipal bond market lately. Here's what you should know.

The Federal Reserve suggested that interest rates likely will move lower, but perhaps not as quickly as markets had been expecting.

Between adjustments in Fed policy and a coming presidential election, it's going to be an emotional year, but historical data shows staying invested is the best course for investors.

The Federal Reserve weighs the data while investors wonder: When will rate cuts begin?

Sentiment data is beginning to match relatively strong "hard" economic data.

Global elections may lean towards nationalist policies that could hinder trade in goods via tariffs, but also boost growth in domestic industries to counter inflationary effects.

India's prospects are bright, but the country faces significant headwinds. Here's what to know as an investor.

Although a strong economy has changed expectations about the timing and magnitude of interest rate cuts, we still see room for the Federal Reserve to cut by three-quarters of a point this year.

Investor sentiment and stock market valuations are getting increasingly stretched as indexes trek higher, but solid underlying breadth has been a positive offset for now.

The second-largest stock market has captured the interest of investors, supported by stronger, more broad-based earnings, and incentivized by Japan's fiscal and monetary policies.

Short-term bond yields are high currently, but with the Federal Reserve poised to cut interest rates investors may want to consider longer-term bonds or bond funds.

The chip sector comes into sharp focus ahead of a key earnings report, with signs of divergence in the sector.

Walmart leads the way as major retailers start weighing in on a positive year for consumer spending. But will it hold true as individual companies report results?

Relatively hot inflation reports might be blips, but they reinforce why the Fed's rate-cutting cycle might be more gradual, which could be a better backdrop for stocks.

Sentiment data is beginning to match relatively strong "hard" economic data.

Market folklore provides an easy, but inaccurate guide for investing in today's interconnected and complex market. Indicators based on economic or market behavior may be preferred.

While focus remains on when the Fed will start cutting rates, history suggests other factors must be looked at when assessing forward stock market performance.

As expected, the Fed held rates steady in January, but importantly downplayed the likelihood that rate cuts will start as soon as March.

Market expectations have established a high bar for central banks' rate cuts. Any disappointment like stronger inflation or economic growth could spark market volatility.

Credit quality in the muni market likely has peaked, but we believe states' strong rainy-day funds and other attributes will lend stability in the near term.

After 2023's price cuts and tougher competition, Tesla is set to report late Wednesday. Lower demand and a big, one-time jump in used EVs could drive a very different 2024.

While the S&P 500's all-time high hasn't been accompanied by other parts of the market (notably, small caps), further gains are possible if breadth firms up.

Bank loan income may decline if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. That doesn't mean investors should avoid them altogether, but it's important to understand the risks.

Tech sector stocks gained more than 50% last year, fueled by AI and signs of improvement in the cloud and chip markets. Upcoming Q4 results could give investors clues into 2024.

The election outcome is unlikely to change the status quo for the Taiwan Strait, U.S.-China relations, or global markets which have seemed to price in geopolitical risk.

Economic data has provided encouragement for both stock market bulls and bears.

With the Federal Reserve poised to begin cutting interest rates this year, the dollar may drift generally downward. However, its performance against individual currencies may vary widely.

Earnings season starts Friday as major investment banks report, and the focus is on rates.

While headline payroll growth was relatively strong in December, weaker details under the surface continue to paint a mixed labor market picture.

Our current 10-year outlook highlights better opportunities for cash and bonds, primarily driven by higher starting yields, and a steady outlook for stocks.

Today's uncertain economic climate is putting particular pressure on four market segments. Here's what to watch out for in the months ahead.

There are many risks for 2024 including those that are an ever-present part of investing and not unique to the outlook for any particular year. We've highlighted our top five.

The decision to hold the federal funds rate steady was in line with expectations, but the accompanying statement and projections indicate a shift toward easing in 2024.

We see potential opportunity in municipal bonds in 2024, although there may be more volatility.

Although some volatility may continue, we believe interest rates have peaked. We expect lower Treasury yields and positive returns for investors in 2024.

Our outlook for 2024 is for a gradual U-shaped recovery composed of seemingly chaotic movements in economic data with turning points in policy rates and earnings growth.

Inflation is a touchy subject, and given there are many ways to analyze it, investors should take note of the nuances that exist within the data.

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Economic pain is likely in 2024, but that doesn’t mean stocks will struggle all year, especially if there is a continuation of the rolling recessions that have hit the economy.

Reasons prompting concern around investing in China may be improving, but volatility is likely to remain characteristic of Chinese stocks in 2024.

Today's uncertain economic climate is putting particular pressure on four market segments. Here's what to watch out for in the months ahead.

The bill will keep the federal government running into early 2024 but likely increases the risk of a shutdown in February.

Like some advances earlier this year, the market's current surge hasn't been defined by strong breadth underneath the surface—which will be key for a sustained, durable advance.

Treasury yields have dropped as weak economic data suggests the Federal Reserve may begin cutting the federal funds rate target earlier than previously expected.

If you're close to retiring, beware of the little-known sequence-of-returns risk that could take a huge slice out of your retirement income.

The Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) model will be the growth story of the next decade. Its track record of success shows that independence could deliver long-term competitive advantages. According to Cerulli, other channels are expected to shed investment advisor market share in the coming years and the independent RIA model will become the benefactor. As this momentum continues to build, now is the perfect time to join the movement.

Policy changes at the Bank of Japan could potentially reverse capital flows, shift global yields higher, contribute to a stronger yen, and increase the value of Japanese stocks.

While bond prices are generally down, the income they provide is up, providing potential opportunities for fixed income investors.

With unanimity, the Fed opted to keep the fed funds rate unchanged but remains attentive to the idea that inflation risk should still be paid attention to.

Earnings results thus far underscore the strong bifurcation within the market, which is confirmed by the continued deterioration in breadth throughout the current correction.

With the Federal Reserve poised to change direction, investors who have been investing in very short-term securities may soon face "reinvestment risk."

Investments in alternative energy have become unattractive due to higher interest rates, not changes in government policies, adoption or pricing of green technologies.

While surface-level economic data appear resilient, details below the surface are mixed.

Interest expense is a large and growing issue for both the economy and stock market, which reinforces why investors should stay up in quality amid interest-rate-driven headwinds.

A run of shrinking quarterly profits may finally end soon, but it's probably not time to break out the champagne just yet.

As the Federal Reserve signals it will keep interest rates higher for longer, the market appears to be reflecting the uncertainty about the path of policy going forward.

Corporate defaults and bankruptcies are on the rise, but we don't believe it should be a concern for investors who hold highly rated corporate bond investments, like those with investment-grade ratings.

Expectations of "higher for longer" U.S. interest rates has helped drive the dollar's recent rally.

Certificates of deposit (CDs) and Treasuries both can offer steady, predictable investment income—but how to decide between them? Here are five factors to help you choose.

Monetary tightening still continues in the form of quantitative tightening, bringing potential volatility, earnings pressures, and lackluster performance to stock markets.

Historically, government shutdowns have not caused a major reaction in the markets. But shutdowns can increase market volatility, and an extended shutdown could have an impact on the overall economy.

The Federal Reserve weighs the data while investors wonder: Is the rate-hike cycle over?

The September Federal Reserve meeting provided few surprises, but ongoing uncertainty about the Fed's next move may mean more volatility ahead.

A return to the Great Moderation Era looks unlikely, which might lead to an increasingly volatile—and somewhat unfamiliar—inflationary, economic, and geopolitical landscape.

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Competing narratives have emerged to describe the state of the U.S. economy.

Changes in sentiment may drive the performance of the Eurozone equity markets, even with disappointing economic data.

We expect yields to fall later this year and into 2024 as inflation continues to cool.

The August jobs report confirms the labor market's continued slowdown, which is for now consistent with the Fed's soft-landing desires—but not without warning signs.

Although high-yield bonds have performed well so far this year, we continue to take a cautious view.

Markets are prone to cyclical behavior, which presents risks and opportunities for investors. Here are some basics investors should know about market cycles, recessions, and recoveries.

China's economy may have spillover effects on global economic and earnings growth, but it's unlikely to lead to global financial contagion and send stock markets materially lower.

Taxable municipal bonds may be an attractive option for investors in lower tax brackets, but there are things investors should know before making a decision.

With the path of least resistance for stocks seemingly lower for now, key to watch will be a stabilization in interest rate volatility and clarity on the path of monetary policy.

Foreign stocks are again competitive with their domestic counterparts. Here are four ways to gain exposure.

As businesses worldwide adopt technology, the innovation of AI may result in market leadership changes, global economic growth, and investor opportunities.

Will the economy roll into a formal recession, or is a recovery underway? It's a close call.

Earnings season has thus far been a mixed bag, and despite a notable increase in the beat rate, the market is rightfully shifting focus to guidance for the rest of the year.

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During the past decade, a turnaround in the Golden State has resulted in higher credit quality for many issuers.

Central bank policies are set to diverge from the steady hikes characterizing the first half of 2023, contributing to increased market volatility for the remainder of the year.

In a unanimous decision, Federal Reserve policymakers raised the federal funds rate to 5.5%, the highest point since 2001.

There are multiple factors to consider, including your tax rate.

The recent broadening out in market breadth has been accompanied by frothier investor sentiment, but using sentiment as a market-timing tool is tricky (if not impossible).

A high probability for an El Niño event in the second half of 2023 brings concerns of extreme weather, persistent inflation, supply chain disruptions, and market volatility.

As summer temperatures peak, inflation just won't completely cool down. The question is how much more the Federal Reserve should do about it.

Now that short-term Treasury yields have reached 5%, further upside is likely to be limited.

The recent collection of labor data has painted a mixed jobs picture, but underlying wage strength and still-strong payroll growth will likely keep the Fed in a hawkish position.

Given attractive yields and strong credit conditions, we have a positive view on the municipal bond market for the second half of the year.

India's growth initiatives and demographics may help its economy continue to advance; its stocks seem to have priced in high expectations for the world's fifth-largest economy.

After falling into its own recession last year, the housing market has started to turn decisively higher; but a sustained recovery might not be the strongest elixir for the economy.

We expect generally good performance during the second half of the year, although volatility may increase, especially for high-yield bonds.

Japanese stocks may help boost the performance of international markets although the unique nature of Japan's economic and business structure could pose some risks.

Though recent data suggests China's re-opening growth has slowed, it's likely temporary. As China's recovery continues, it may have implications for U.S. inflation and rates.

With unanimity, the Federal Open Market Committee held the federal funds rate in its current range, but updated projections suggest this rate-hike cycle is not yet over.

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Most of the things we expected to happen during the first half of the year in fact did: Inflation eased, U.S. economic growth slowed, the Federal Reserve appears to be near the end of its rate-hike cycle, and the U.S. government debt ceiling standoff was resolved before a potential default.

Sometimes it feels like the economy and markets are on different tracks.

The meaning of "wealth" goes far beyond having a lot of money. It's more about what money can do for you.

A broadening out in market performance would help bolster a more sustainable stock rally, but that hinges on increasing clarity for monetary policy, recession risk, and bank stress.

Despite high volatility in the bond market during the first half of the year, what's surprising is how much didn't change.

The drama characterizing the first half of 2023 may abate, with potentially milder returns for investors due to the effects of the Cardboard Box Recession.

The measure ends weeks of negotiation and unease about a potentially catastrophic government default.

The concentration of gains up the cap spectrum isn't itself a precursor to weakness; it's the lack of participation from the "average stock" that warrants some caution.

While we don't expect the U.S. government to default, the uncertainty may heighten market volatility in coming days. Here are answers to some of the questions we're hearing most often.

Although few nations have a debt ceiling similar to the U.S.', rising government debt levels are a widespread global risk that may lead to lower economic output and weaker growth.

Bonds issued by government-sponsored enterprises can offer slightly higher yields than U.S. Treasuries, without requiring investors to take on too much additional risk.

Banks and financial institutions are big issuers of preferred securities, so the recent banking industry volatility has had an impact. Our guidance on preferreds is unchanged but with some caveats.

Analysis shows an extraordinary range of outcomes since the S&P 500's inception in 1928.

As the credit market grows more stringent, investors should consider high-quality, longer-term bonds. Here are some fixed-income strategies.

Political brinkmanship in Washington adds to concerns about the economy.

The central bank likely won't have enough reason to hike rates again this cycle. In fact, we wouldn't be surprised to see one or two rate cuts later this year.

Shifts in the labor market due to monetary policy tightening would see lagged effects that may not aid central banks' efforts to materially affect core inflation by year's end.

Equities rise as jobs surprise the upside. The U.S. jobs market remains resilient as nonfarm payrolls beat expectations in April.

With unanimity, the Federal Open Market Committee raised the Fed funds rate by 25 basis points in May and signaled that further tightening will depend on various economic factors.

Leadership shifts at the sector and style levels warrant some additional caution, as well as a closer look as to what investors are buying when it comes to "growth vs. value."

Although investing in in-state municipal bonds may have tax advantages, there can be good reasons to buy out-of-state munis.

Although the House narrowly approved a bill designed to jumpstart negotiations, the issue is far from resolved.

China’s domestically driven economic growth has not yet translated to Emerging Market stock performance, which has tended to have been weighed down by international political tensions.

Corporate bond investors may be wondering if banking sector turmoil will affect financial institution bond issuers. Here's what to know now.

What does a potential change in Federal Reserve policy mean for markets and the economy?

Although central banks may be near the end of the rate hike cycle, short-duration stocks may still be an attractive investment theme should interest rates remain at higher levels.

Trading might be muted today as the market pivots, awaiting earnings and inflation data this week.

In the face of banking stress and a hawkish Federal Reserve, stocks have advanced impressively so far this year, but narrow breadth doesn't bode well for continued strength.

Natural gas prices remain in their steep price decline as the prospects for a large gas surplus heading into the spring is keeping buying interest at bay.

Stocks built on overnight gains and Treasury yields inched lower following today's relatively benign February PCE inflation data.

The Senate Banking Committee held a hearing to investigate the collapse of Signature Bank (SBNY) and Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB/SIVBQ) that brought to discussion possible changes for the entire banking system.

As we discussed last week in Looking to the Futures, natural gas prices have been plagued by the perfect storm of lower demand and higher production throughout the withdrawal season.

Stocks fell and volatility rose this morning as banking sector worries persist.

U.S. stocks climbed for a second straight day Tuesday, with the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite ending near a five-week high, as jitters over bank instability eased.

U.S. equities are lower as pressure has returned to the banking sector, which remains top of mind.

What our experts think about today's market action.

U.S. stocks are falling in pre-market trading as recent banking turmoil on this side of the pond made its way to Europe.

U.S. stocks are extending last week's sharp declines that have come amid worries regarding the ultimate impact on the banking sector of the recent collapses of SVB Financial and Silvergate Capital.

U.S. equities are modestly higher in pre-market action following the February labor report that was only modestly above estimates.

U.S. stocks are higher, paring weekly losses though the markets remain choppy following this week's hawkish Congressional testimony from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

Given the topsy-turvy nature of the market thus far in 2023, it remains crucial for investors to know what they are buying—especially as it relates to growth, value, and quality.

U.S. stocks are subdued in pre-market action as the global markets remain choppy amid the backdrop of uncertainty regarding the ultimate impact of aggressive monetary policy tightening.

The S&P 500 is rising after falling the past four sessions as equites have shown some volatility amid festering uncertainty regarding the ultimate economic impact of aggressive global central bank tightening.

Investors continue to seek signs of a change in season—and clues about how the Federal Reserve might react to it.

Stocks mixed around mid-day as investors digest data.

Corn futures traded higher to start the month with weekly USDA data showing an increase in exports week over week.

Stocks lower as investors digest data, Fed commentary.

Monday’s trading saw oil rise as traders digested China’s return in demand against a continued supply strain and slower growth in world economies.

The April Live Cattle futures, LCJ23, rallied as traders digested the United States Department of Agricultures (USDA) Cattle inventory report.

U.S. stocks declining, as the markets trim a strong start to 2023 ahead of this week's host of key economic and earnings data, as well as the Fed's monetary policy decision.

U.S. equities finished mixed in a lackluster trading session, as Q4 earnings season shifted into a higher gear today.

U.S. stocks are extending a late last-week rally, with Q4 earnings season set to shift into high gear.

U.S. equities are higher, as the markets look to get back to their winning ways after a two-day losing streak.

U.S. equities are lower in pre-market trading with the Street digesting a slew of results from the banking sector to kick off Q4 earnings season.

U.S. stocks are choppy as the markets wrestle with the implications of a highly anticipated December consumer price inflation report that showed the headline figure declined but the core rate rose, both in line with expectations.

Gold prices have increased to start 2023 as the dollar index extends last Friday's losses.

The March contract for the Bloomberg Commodity Index (ERH23) was down for the third consecutive day on Thursday. Since ending 2022 at 112.80, the contract is down 5.03 at 107.77.

Bonds are bouncing into the new year after notching a record annual loss last year.

U.S. equities are solidly higher in afternoon action, paring some of the losses that have plagued the start of 2023.

U.S. equities closed out 2022 in the red, and all three major indexes registered solid losses on a yearly basis. The stock market posted its worst yearly decline since 2008.

The February crude oil contract CLG23 was down over 2% in trading early Thursday.

U.S. stocks are rising in pre-market trading, looking to rebound from yesterday's drop.

U.S. stocks continue to oscillate around the unchanged mark.

U.S. stocks are rising in pre-market action in the first trading session of the week following the long holiday weekend.

U.S. equities are modestly higher but near the unchanged mark in pre-market action.

U.S. stocks are falling sharply, giving up yesterday's rally.

Considering that a new year almost always brings surprises of one form or another, we've highlighted our top five that may define the global markets in 2023.

Inflation trends are moving in a favorable direction, but the change is likely too slow for the Fed to take its foot off the brake anytime soon.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a half point (50 basis points) on Wednesday in line with forecasts.

U.S. stocks are solidly lower as the markets continue to digest the economic implications of yesterday's 50-bp rate hike from the Fed.

U.S. stocks are soaring in pre-market trading amid a softer-than-expected November consumer price inflation report.

For the first time in a long time, muni investors may be able to earn attractive yields without having to take undue risk.

U.S. stocks ended higher in a quiet day, trimming some of the week's losses.

Oil dropped Tuesday on the release of the new Short-term Energy Outlook (STEO) released by the Energy Information Administration.

Markets may continue to see volatility in 2023 as they navigate between global economic growth and inflation fears, with central banks' decreasing rate hikes and China's reopening.

U.S. stocks are lower as the new week kicks off, even as China took further measures to ease COVID restrictions.

Weaker economic trends will likely form heading into 2023 as the Fed battles inflation, but a (hopefully) mild recession may help set stocks up for a better second half of the year.

U.S. equities are sliding as investors sift through the November labor report that showed stronger-than-expected job growth.

One of the biggest trades this year has lost steam and its outlook for the next year has become much more mixed.

U.S. stocks are choppy in pre-market trading on the heels of yesterday's drop ahead of tomorrow's comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

U.S. equities are mixed in pre-market trading, but the markets are on track to post weekly gains for the holiday-shortened week.

Oil prices swung down and right back up in Monday’s session among reports that OPEC+ was considering an output increase.

U.S. equities are rising, although no notable directional drivers seem to be in play amid the holiday-shortened week, with the markets closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving and trading in a half day on Friday.

Although off their Thursday lows, equity index prices closed lower yesterday.

High inflation and slow economic growth are a problem for investors. Here's how to shore up your portfolio.

U.S. equities are mixed in restrained trading, with investors awaiting the next two pieces to complete the October inflation picture.

U.S. stocks posted its biggest daily gain since 2020 following data on October’s consumer price inflation (CPI), which came in cooler-than-expected.

U.S. equities are lower as the global markets await the final results of the U.S. midterm elections as the control of the Congress remains undetermined.

U.S. equities finished lower with the Dow whipsawing within a more than 900-point range following the Fed's monetary policy decision.

U.S. equities are declining, struggling to continue the past two week’s positive momentum.

Short-term bonds currently offer higher yields than longer-term ones, but there are risks in holding only short-term bonds.

Markets can have more sway over policymakers than vice versa, as demonstrated in the U.K. recently.

U.S. stocks are trading mixed in pre-market action.

Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities can be a buffer against long-term inflation, but it's possible for TIPS price declines to outpace principal adjustment in the short term.

Much attention has been paid to the elevated risk (and announcement) of a recession, but investors should instead focus on signals coming from leading economic indicators.

U.S. equities are beginning the new week sharply higher, getting a boost from the U.K.'s decision to abandon nearly all its tax cut plans.

Inflation concerns on Friday once again pulled the rug from under investors struggling to find their footing as the Federal Reserve's battle against rising consumer prices shakes the economic terrain.

U.S. stocks are mixed and subdued as the markets digest another hot inflation report in the form of the September Producer Price Index.

U.S. equities are mixed as investors await this week’s highly anticipated September inflation data.

U.S. stocks are trading modestly lower in pre-market action with the markets awaiting tomorrow's key September nonfarm payroll report.

Stocks extend yesterday’s gains as rates continue to ease.

U.S. equities are higher in afternoon action following a recent plunge to lows not seen since 2020.

Bleeding into this week, the British pound reached its lowest level ever Monday, relative to the U.S. dollar.

Oil has been routing since summer after reaching historic highs of over $130 per barrel, but we may see some relief soon as near-term events may trigger a rally.

U.S. stocks are moving higher in pre-market trading, following yesterday's third-straight 75-basis point rate hike from the Fed.

U.S. stocks are declining in pre-market trading as the markets await the Fed’s highly anticipated monetary policy decision tomorrow.

U.S. equities are modestly higher in afternoon action on the heels of yesterday's sharp drop that came as consumer price inflation surprisingly came in hot.

Silver rallied to start the week as all contract months were up four percent or more.

U.S. stocks are starting the week in positive territory, extending last week's advance that snapped a three-week losing streak.

U.S. stocks are continuing to trade higher in the final session of the week and are on pace to end a three-week losing streak.

The August jobs report delivered something for both economic bulls and bears, but what matters more in the near term is the Fed's focus on seeing a continued easing in labor demand.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish comments dominated the markets on Friday, with the major indices all seeing a drop of over 3%.

U.S. stocks ended the day in the red, continuing last week's sharp drop following comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell last Friday that heightened inflationary concerns.

Equity markets plunged to start the week based on increased FOMC pressure to raise rates to combat inflation.

Crude oil futures ended higher, reversing losses earlier in the week after news that U.S. crude inventories fell sharply.

U.S. stocks are subdued following yesterday’s release of the minutes from the Fed’s July monetary policy meeting.

Crude oil prices dropped substantially to start the week after the dollar rallied.

U.S. stocks have come off the worst levels of the day and are threatening a move into positive territory.

U.S. stocks are moving upward, continuing yesterday's rally, as the markets digest the release of the Producer Price Index.

U.S. stocks are trading mixed in pre-market action, with the markets anticipating tomorrow's start of a flood of July inflation data.

A trifecta of factors support the dollar, including the relatively strong performance of the U.S. economy, tightening monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, and safe-haven buying.

U.S. equities finished mixed in choppy trading amid a host of data, events and cautious Fedspeak driving sentiment.

The U.S. has experienced another quarter of reduced output, in the face of high inflation and rising interest rates.

U.S. stocks are trading higher as the Street is reacting positively to softer-than-expected earnings results from some key companies.

Second-quarter earnings growth will mark an expected deceleration in profits, but focus will likely continue to shift to the pace at which outlooks are downgraded.

U.S. stocks are mixed in a subdued session to close out the week, but remain on target for a sharp weekly advance.

Although an economic rebound in China is underway according to government and private sector data, its economy and stock market may remain volatile.

U.S. equities are seeing solid gains, as the bulls look to sustain the rise today after failing to do so yesterday.

The June jobs report was cheered by economic bulls given its strength in level terms, but rates of change among leading indicators don't favor a soft-landing outcome for the economy.

The Federal Reserve's pledge to curb inflation appears to have resonated with the market.

U.S. stocks are seeing pressure in early action following the long holiday weekend, with global recession concerns weighing on sentiment.

The crypto investing front has taken another barrage of body blows, pushing Bitcoin to test the $19,000 per coin level once again.

After the steep drop in prices during the first half of this year, yields on many corporate bond investments are at or near 12-year highs.

U.S. stocks are extending weekly gains, rebounding from yesterday afternoon's slide as the markets remain choppy amid lingering global recession concerns that have been bolstered by monetary policy tightening efforts around the globe aimed at getting high inflation under control.

Rising inflation, rate hikes, supply-chain problems and the Russia-Ukraine war have contributed to growing recession fears.

Stocks modestly lower ahead of tomorrow’s inflation report.

U.S. equities are lower as the recent volatility continues despite yesterday's gains.

Sharp, countertrend rallies may continue this year, but aggressive Fed policy, the turning of the liquidity tide, and slower economic growth will likely keep pressure on stocks.

Municipal bonds acquired at too deep a discount could be subject to an additional tax, known as the de minimis tax, which would take a bite out of the after-tax return.

Low inventories drove natural gas prices to their highest level since 2008, while above normal temperatures are putting additional stress on natural gas supply.

Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, can help protect against inflation over the long run, but in the short term their performance may be dictated more by price declines in the secondary market.

U.S. equities are trading lower in afternoon action with the markets unable to extend yesterday's solid gains.

Stocks start the week higher following recent bearishness.

U.S. equities plunged, finishing near the lows of the day, following disappointing quarterly results from Target Corporation and Lowe's Companies, with both retailers warning of rising cost pressures.

Natural gas prices traded higher to start the week after forecasts show hotter than average temperatures in the United States.

U.S. stocks are trading lower as another week begins on the heels of six-straight weekly losses for the S&P 500.

Charles Schwab May 2022 Market Snapshot with Liz Ann Sonders. 

U.S. stocks suffered another day of losses Monday, as the market continued to weigh the risk that the Federal Reserve’s aggressive anti-inflation campaign could push the economy into recession.

As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the fed funds rate by 50 basis points, to a range of 0.75% to 1.0%.

It was quite a month.

Stock prices and bond yields have been moving in opposite directions this year.

U.S. stocks fell Friday, extending a run of weekly losses into its third straight week, as investors reacted to a handful of disappointing earnings reports and the Federal Reserve’s increasingly aggressive language about future interest rate increases.

Recession chatter has picked up increasingly for numerous reasons, not least being the spike in oil prices, slowdown in economic growth estimates, and the Fed's transition from accommodative to tighter monetary policy.

The "end of globalization" is a phrase that has come up a lot lately.

There is no shortage of headwinds facing both the market and the economy: the tragic Russian invasion of Ukraine and attendant commodity/energy crisis; the Federal Reserve's transition from accommodative to tighter monetary policy; and increased chatter of a recession on the horizon; among others.

For the past month, investors have been focused on the war on Ukraine and the economic impact of sanctions.

Preferred securities prices have fallen sharply, presenting an attractive entry point for income-oriented investors who can ride out the volatility.

You’ve researched the nuts and bolts of cryptocurrencies and considered whether you should invest in them.

Unfunded pensions for state and local governments were once expected by some to sink the whole market.

Bouts of market volatility are an unnerving, but normal, feature of long-term investing.

The Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point increase in the target range for the federal funds rate, to a range of 0.25% to 0.50%, its first rate hike since December 2018.

The past isn’t a perfect predictor of market behavior, but it has proven to be a useful guide.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine overturned a lot of assumptions about the near-term direction of the global economy.

We're changing all our sector calls to "neutral" until there's more clarity on how the Russia-Ukraine war will affect the global economy.

The war between Russia and Ukraine—and subsequent economic and financial ripple effects—has exacerbated stress in global markets and ushered in an acute risk-off environment.

After living through more than two years of COVID-19, its variants, and the attendant supply-chain disruptions and inflation concerns, one thing is clear: Uncertainty is the only certainty.

Markets have already reacted to the threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine in a textbook manner akin to prior similar events that we have outlined in prior articles on January 31 and February 22.

Preferred securities are a type of investment that generally offers higher yields than traditional fixed income securities, such as U.S. Treasury securities or investment-grade corporate bonds.

In an apparent desire to create a weakened border state unable to join NATO, Russia supported separatists in eastern Ukraine by recognizing the independence of two regions: Donetsk and Luhansk. In support, Russia ordered “peacekeeping” troops to the areas, prompting sanctions by world powers.

U.S. and global stocks fell sharply Thursday amid fear of a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine and ongoing concern about inflation.

Most investors are probably less diversified than they think they are.

In recent weeks, it has felt like the U.S. stock market slips a gear every so often, dropping sharply as investors search for traction in uncertain terrain.

After “whisper” estimates for the December jobs report, out last Friday, had plunged well into negative territory, payrolls instead jumped by 467k—well above the official consensus of only 125k, and close to twice the highest Bloomberg estimate.

U.S. and global stocks fell sharply Thursday as global interest rates rose and certain sectors posted weak earnings.

The Federal Reserve has indicated it plans to start raising short-term interest rates soon.

Markets appear to be reacting to military developments in Ukraine.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve did not make any formal changes to its policy, but did signal it would begin raising the fed funds rate soon.

Last week, U.S. Treasury bond yields, climbed back to their pre-pandemic levels.

The Federal Reserve dealt the bond market a sharp body blow on January 5th with the release of the minutes of its last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting in December 2021.

“Jobs day” last Friday was a bit of a dud.

A change in fundamentals could make international bonds more attractive.

Despite the strong year for stocks in 2021, markets have confidently priced in some negative trends gathering more momentum in 2022 which may help markets, should trends reverse.

The semiconductor shortage and its impact on everything from autos to smartphone production has been much in the news. The shortage has been a boon for semiconductor stock prices. But it likely will resolve itself in the coming months—or years, depending on whom you talk to—raising the specter of a bust.

Some of the market’s recent pressures are showing signs of easing.

The FOMC upped the pace of tapering—now expected to conclude by March—with three rate hikes expected in 2022 per its “dot plot.”

Investor sentiment is one key to shorter-term market swings; with euphoria preceding September’s and late-November’s pullbacks; but better conditions in place … for now.

Given all the municipal bonds to choose from, how do you decide which ones should make up the core of your portfolio? With $3.9 trillion of muni debt outstanding¹ spread among tens of thousands of issuers, the choice may seem daunting, but we’ll help you break it down.

Ever since the Federal Reserve started hinting it was planning to end its ultra-loose monetary policy, bond yields have been falling. That it happened in a booming economy with the highest inflation readings in nearly 40 years has taken a lot of investors and analysts by surprise.

Inflation continues to be a concern these days, and many investors are looking for investments that can keep pace with, or hopefully beat, the rate of inflation. As a result, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, have become a popular investment option.

As we wrote about in our 2022 Global Outlook, COVID-19 is becoming endemic rather than pandemic. We anticipate a winter wave of COVID, potentially with new variants like omicron.

The S&P 500 index is up more than 20% so far this year, but more than 90% of its member stocks have had “correction” level drawdowns—more than 10% from a peak—at some point this year. In short, while overall stock market performance has been strong, there has been a lot of churn beneath the surface.

Bear with us as (no pun intended) you read this longer-than-usual outlook!

U.S. and global stocks fell sharply Friday amid spiking fears about a new COVID variant, named Omicron, emanating from South Africa, where it’s spreading quickly. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite indices closed down more than 2%, while the Russell 2000 fell nearly 4%.

A high tide of growth, aided by a sea change in fiscal policy, is likely to help float the global economy safely over the rocks of risks in 2022, despite waves of worries emanating from COVID, inflation, shortages, and rate hikes.

Current low yields and tight spreads in the municipal bond market have made it difficult for investors to find opportunities to earn attractive interest income on their investments. We expect that to change in 2022.

Rarely is there any sector that has everything going for or against it—and that is true today of the Information Technology sector.

You’ve researched the nuts and bolts of cryptocurrencies and considered whether you should invest in them. Now you want to participate in the cryptocurrencies market. How do you do it?

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been growing in popularity, but if you’re considering investing in them, there are some key things you should know first.

So what is cryptocurrency? Should you invest in it? How can you invest in it? We’ll cover all three topics in this and related articles. For now, here are answers to some of the most common questions about the basics of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

With less than two months left in what has been an extraordinary (and mystifying) year on multiple fronts, stocks have maintained a largely uninterrupted trek higher (at the index level) in the face of myriad headwinds...

Liz Ann Sonders shares her perspective on the U.S. stock market and economy in this monthly Market Snapshot video.

After a year of supply shortages, the global economy may be closer to the end of the supply chain problems than the beginning.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced the start of balance sheet tapering at a pace of $15 billion per month ($10 billion of Treasuries and $5 billion of mortgage-backed securities). They made no change to the fed funds rate, which remains near the zero bound.

Earnings season has been stellar so far, although the growth rate is well off its prior quarter peak, with profit margins in focus looking ahead.

Signs are growing that inflation may be more tenacious than originally expected. We don’t believe a return to 1970s-style inflation is likely, but there is a worrisome scenario in which persistently sharp increases in prices could be a factor to reckon with—and if history is any guide, they could have an impact on sector performance.

Services make up more of the economy, jobs, and the stock market. The time has come to focus on services data to get a sense of the overall economic picture.

The speculative exuberance around special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) seems to be over, but investors still have questions about them.

The age of abundance has given way to an age of scarcity, while the pro-cyclical version of inflation may have given way to the counter-cyclical version.

Supply chains typically aren’t something the average person needs to think about too much. When they’re working, these high-tech, globalized networks of parts suppliers, assemblers, shippers, and distributors allow companies to make and move goods around the world so quickly and cheaply that it’s tempting to take them for granted.

September closed with a whimper (from folks hoping the seven-month stretch of positive performance months for the S&P 500 would make it to eight). The month also held true to the history of September being the worst month for performance on average since the index’s inception in 1928.

Looking ahead, new sources of inflation may continue to arise. Unless the mounting pressures push inflation to significantly higher levels that would provoke central banks into aggressive tightening, the impact on global stock markets may be a positive.

There is a cost to waiting for interest rates to rise—you may be missing out on higher coupon rates and yields elsewhere. Rather than waiting on the sidelines for yields to rise, investors should consider short-term corporate bonds today—specifically those with fixed coupon rates.

U.S. stocks fell Tuesday on persistent concerns over the debt ceiling, along with a continued increase in Treasury yields. The S&P 500 closed down 2%, the Nasdaq fell 2.8%, and the Russell 2000 fell 2.3%.

The performance momentum could continue with the reopening of the nation’s capital reinvigorating economic growth, the strong upward trend in revisions to analysts’ earnings estimates for Japanese companies, lower relative valuations, and a historically bullish pre-election period.

It was 35 years ago this month that I began my career on Wall Street. In thinking about those three-and-a-half decades, I decided to shift tack with today’s report and ask readers to indulge me as I ruminate about what I’ve learned during these decades.

House Democrats have proposed a higher top individual tax rate and changes to the capital gains tax. Both are a long way from becoming law.

The bond market has been in hibernation for months, and investors may have become complacent about risks.

Over the past 70 years, rising government debt generally has been accompanied by weaker economic activity. But it’s not a simple relationship.

A gradual slowing of stimulus heralds a potential drop for the world’s stock markets, but the evidence suggests a possibility for a positive outcome.

How do you choose between corporate and municipal bonds? Both have characteristics that can be useful in your portfolio, depending on your goals and circumstances, but they’re not right for every situation.

Now that the dollar is near the year’s highs, can the rally continue? We believe it can in the near term, although our longer-term view is more nuanced. Here’s what we see ahead.

Special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs)—also known as blank-check companies—have gained immense popularity among investors since the beginning of 2020, despite being around for decades.

Supply chain issues are worsening again, reversing improvements seen earlier this summer.

The stock market could use some mouthwash.

The latest major initiative from the White House—a package of social measures known as the American Families Plan, comprising expanded child care assistance, two years of free community college, universal prekindergarten, and more—includes proposed tax increases on the wealthy to help fund the plan.

As the Federal Reserve transitions from merely talking about tapering its bond holdings to actually tapering, investors may be left wondering what it might mean for the markets and their portfolios.

Although the prospect of the Federal Reserve tapering its bond purchases has unsettled markets in the past, we expect it to be more orderly this time around.

News about Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, much like hearing about a neighbor who won the lottery, have been impossible to ignore lately.

China’s stock market pullback this year has been in line with the average annual drawdown; historically, this volatility has tended to produce double-digit annualized gains.

As expected, in a unanimous vote, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve (Fed) kept the fed funds rate unchanged in its range of 0-0.25%.

In what shaped up to be a very impressive first half of the year for both the economy and stock market, stellar earnings growth has been a key ingredient.

COVID-19 resurgences appear to be the primary driver of moves across many markets this year.

For investors considering preferred securities today, there is good news and bad news.

In the last few weeks, stock market leadership reversed back to lockdown-era defensives as the stock market made new all-time highs.

More than 75% of the West is in an extreme or exceptional drought, with over 58 million people living in a drought area—and expectations are that it will get worse.

There is always a lot of controversy around the implications of high and rising government debt. Over the past 70 years, rising government debt has generally been accompanied by weaker economic activity.

Inflation continues to be a concern these days, and many investors are looking for investments that can keep pace with, or hopefully beat, the rate of inflation

It is possible that good data could be interpreted as bad news for the U.S. stock market at least in the near-term as strong economic data, especially on jobs, could prompt the Fed to unwind earlier.

The Fed made no changes to its interest rate or balance sheet policies; but some of the language in its statement was tweaked, reflecting recent hotter inflation data.

To get the facts, sometimes you need to look beneath the surface.

Liz Ann Sonders shares her perspective on the U.S. stock market and economy in this monthly Market Snapshot video.

The recovery is now over; a new global economic expansion has begun.

Second quarter is likely the peak growth rate for both the economy and corporate earnings; with positive economic surprises waning.

Is the stock market disconnected from the economy?

While it’s very early to say the rise in inflation has passed, there are signs that the fastest part of the rebound in inflation might soon be over.

In a complete reversal from what was expected roughly a year ago, the outlook for muni issuers is much brighter.

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been getting a lot of attention lately.

A boom in spending has stirred fears of economic overheating, which has coincided with a surge in commodity prices and a lift in traditional inflation metrics.

With commodity prices soaring, money supply growth exploding, and government spending surging, there is a palpable fear of a return to 1970s-style inflation.

Special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs)—also known as blank-check companies—have gained immense popularity among investors since the beginning of 2020, despite being around for decades.

Economic and earnings data are in boom territory, with more momentum likely near-term.

Inflation is likely to rise in 2021—but will the rise be sustained? That seems to be the million-dollar question lately.

This week’s unveiling of the American Families Plan, the latest proposal from the White House, makes it clear that President Joe Biden is serious about pursuing some of the individual tax increases he called for during the 2020 campaign.

In recent months, two investment themes have been rewarding investors with outperformance: defense sector companies and those participating in share buybacks.

Although it’s early in the first quarter earnings reporting season, it’s worth a look at the progress so far and the implications for the rest of the season, as well as valuations.

Hundreds of years of history shows us that investment bubbles have been a regularly occurring feature of the financial markets.

Floating-rate notes can help lower a portfolio’s sensitivity to interest rate changes, but they aren’t necessarily the secret weapon to combat a rising-rate environment.

As Shakespeare might put it, “full of sound and fury, signifying nothing” is perhaps an apt way to describe the character of the market so far this year.

Policymakers in major economies have pointed to 2023 as the date the stimulus payback may begin.

I am often asked by investors why we do not have formal tactical views on growth vs. value like we do on large caps vs. small caps.

We are often asked if the U.S. dollar will lose its status as the world’s reserve currency.

This probably isn’t the start of a bear market, but it may feel like less a bull market compared with last year’s charge.

U.S. economic growth is accelerating as vaccinations rise and social-distancing measures ease, but hopes for a long-lasting spending boom may hit a couple of speed bumps. Vaccine rollouts in major countries are proceeding at different speeds, but stock market performance contradicts what vaccination data would seem to imply for investors. Meanwhile, inflation-adjusted longer-term Treasury yields have risen as investors anticipate stronger economic growth.

Is the stock market disconnected from the economy? Perhaps, but less so lately.

“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.” -Investor and mutual fund manager Sir John Templeton

What’s a “zombie company”? You may have heard the term in the financial media recently and wondered if it’s something you should be worried about.

Accelerating growth is generally a good thing for stocks, evidenced by bond yields and stock prices typically rising and falling together.

The late-February spike in U.S. Treasury bond yields sent ripples throughout the global markets. As yields surged to the highest level in a year, stocks and commodities sold off sharply, while the dollar rallied.

Looking at the latest economic data reveals V-shaped recoveries in many goods-based indicators; while services has more catch-up to do.

The Year of the Ox looks bullish for China with economists and analysts forecasting GDP growth of 8.1% and earnings growth of 18% for the MSCI China Index. But February holds key developments for China that could impact this outlook, including stock delistings, trade, and COVID-19.

Hope is high that economic growth will accelerate as more people are vaccinated against COVID-19, but so far economic data has been lackluster. Meanwhile, bond investors are expecting inflation despite signs that the economic recovery’s momentum may be stalling. Why does everything seem so disconnected?

This is a new type of exchange-traded ETF that is built differently from a traditional ETF.

As quickly as it soared to the moon, GameStop came back down to earth; but the lessons learned are key to turning day trading speculators into longer-term investors.

The COVID-19 crisis opened up cracks in the muni market, but we don’t expect those cracks to alter the reality that municipal bonds can be a relatively conservative investment option. Many municipalities are under stress, but that’s not a reason to avoid munis, in our view.

When investors talk about “the stock market” they are most often referring to an index that tracks stocks only in their home country. This “home bias” is evident when it comes to the make-up of investors’ stock portfolios. Investors around the world tend to hold mostly domestic stocks.

As expected, the Fed kept rates unchanged; but did make clear its view that vaccines are key to the trajectory of the economic recovery.

Bank loans offer some of the highest yields in the current interest rate environment. We believe their unique characteristics may prevent many investors from considering them, but it may be a mistake to overlook them.

As a review of the year that was, today’s report analyzes and dissects the nature of the K-shaped recovery in both the economy and stock market.

Their decisions in the coming months could have an impact on the markets and investors.

Joe Biden takes the Presidential oath of office this week in the U.S., marking the end of a long U.S. political contest; a year of political challenges is just getting started overseas.

The new year kicked off with a sharp rise in Treasury bond yields, despite unprecedented political turmoil and signs that the economic recovery is slowing.

U.S. stocks have continued to climb amid optimism about a vaccine-led economic recovery, but it’s a narrow path—buoyant investor sentiment could easily be deflated by bad news. Although global economic growth has struggled, an acceleration in vaccinations in major countries could support stronger growth in the second quarter.

It has been an extraordinary start to 2021 in the nation's capital. The images of a mob protesting the outcome of the presidential election by overrunning the U.S. Capitol building on January 6^th are already seared into the nation’s collective memory. A week later, the House of Representatives, for the first time in American history, impeached a president for a second time.

Last week was shocking and extraordinarily sad; and as if Americans didn’t have enough with which to contend, it was capped off by a weaker-than-expected December jobs report.

LIBOR is still being retired, just a little later than initially expected.

While Election Day is two months in the rearview mirror, the election is not over. A runoff election in Georgia on Tuesday, January 5^th, will determine the balance of power in the U.S. Senate, a historically unprecedented scenario that will have a profound impact on President-elect Joe Biden's ability to move his policy agenda forward in the first two years of his presidency.

After a powerful rally for stocks for much of 2020, let’s take a look at the biggest potential downside risks for investors in the year ahead. While none of these scenarios make our base case for 2021, a review of the top investment risks in greater depth may be prudent as we enter the New Year.

As expected, the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to keep the federal funds target rate in a range of zero to 0.25%; where it’s been since March. A majority of FOMC officials maintained their forecast that the rate would be kept near zero at least through 2023.

September 2 was a momentous day on several fronts. It was the initial pop to all-time highs for both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ; after an impressive run from the March 23 pandemic low. It was also a turning point in terms of market leadership; reflecting budding optimism about a turn-for-the-better in economic data.

Encouraging news about COVID-19 vaccines has boosted hope for stronger economic growth, kicking off a rotation in stocks and equity sectors as investors look to a brighter future. However, near-term volatility is possible, as we’re not yet out of the coronavirus tunnel.

Key Points

• A COVID-19 vaccine could start being administered globally this week.

• The planned rollout is good news that has lifted the stock markets around the world. But the reality of the rollout faces risks that could extend the time frame for mass immunizations.

• We expect markets to be volatile in coming months while the threat of new lockdowns weighs against the hope of recovery, although we believe we may be on the verge of a period of international stock market outperformance.

Given all the municipal bonds to choose from, how do you decide which ones should make up the core of your portfolio? With $3.7 trillion of muni debt outstanding¹ spread among tens of thousands of issuers, the choice may seem daunting, but we’ll help you break it down.

With COVID-19 vaccines on the horizon, the longer-term economic outlook appears brighter.

We expect the municipal bond market to return to a sense of normalcy in 2021.

It was a bumpy ride for corporate bond investors this year. After the sharp, pandemic-driven selloff in February and March, total returns for most corporate bond investments have climbed their way back into positive territory.

Ten-year Treasury bond yields may rise as high as 1.6% in 2021, reflecting prospects for faster economic growth.

This week’s report will look at last week’s market moves in the wake of positive vaccine news (with additional and even better news today); but will also review our most recent tactical recommendation change.

Actual third-quarter earnings may be less important than what business leaders say about their expectations.

Investors looking past the presidential election for the next market-moving news break were rewarded earlier this week when Pfizer announced that it had made some headway in the fight against COVID-19.

Stock market performance during the transition period between outgoing and incoming U.S. presidents tends to be more dependent on the economic cycle than the election results.

The Fed did not add to this week’s uncertainties and kept rates unchanged, while also providing no new information with regard to its balance sheet.

Investors likely have many questions about the 2020 election. Votes were still being counted late Wednesday, but here are answers to some of the most frequently asked questions we’re hearing.

While the election remains too close to call, investor attention will soon turn back to Capitol Hill, where senators will reconvene on Nov. 9 and House members on Nov. 16 for what is known as a “lame duck” session of Congress.

There are many major policy decisions that will influence the outlook—trade, energy, taxes and budget deficits, and pandemic relief. However, it’s difficult to assess how these issues will be addressed post-election, and even more unpredictable how the market will react.

For the third time since the COVID bear ended its short havoc, U.S. stocks went into pullback mode—culminating in the worst week since March. The virus itself continues to be a culprit; with another surge in cases and hospitalizations; although not for deaths, at least not yet. The lack of a fiscal relief package and heightened election uncertainty are also to blame.

Stocks tumbled again on Wednesday, as worries about rising COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations sent investors toward the safe havens of U.S. Treasuries and the dollar.

The “end of globalization” is a phrase that has come up a lot lately. Stories written about deglobalization have soared this year with the pandemic.

Investor sentiment is telling a mixed story about the market’s ascent since the March low; begging the question, will the skeptics converge with the optimists?

Actual third-quarter earnings may be less important than what business leaders say about their expectations.

Given current low yields, some investors wonder whether bonds can continue to provide diversification in a portfolio. Here’s why those fears may be overblown.

The potential economic and market impacts a “Blue Wave” for the U.S. election could have on five key areas: taxes, labor, the environment, oil and trade.

The transportation sector in the municipal bond market faces significant headwinds as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.

High-yield bonds can generally offer more income in a very low-interest-rate world. However, if the economic or stock market outlook deteriorates, it could be a bumpy ride.

With investors already on edge regarding election uncertainty, an “October surprise” arrives yet again. Can history provide some guidance on how elections impact markets?

The biggest political risk facing investors may be the potential for politicians to implement national lockdowns in response to a rise in new COVID-19 cases that could lead to renewed recession and a new bear market for stocks.

When a stock index falls by more than 10%, it is often said to have entered “correction” territory. That’s a fairly neutral term for what feels like a nerve-wracking drop to many investors. What does a correction mean? What’s likely to happen after a correction, and what can you do to help your portfolio weather the downturn?

As of this writing, it’s a rough start to the week for U.S. equities. Major indices attempted to find more stable ground last week, but volatility risks persist and the bears are winning the latest round. Policy risks abound—not just election-related, but both monetary and fiscal policy as well.

Fed maintained rates at near-zero, while also updating its summary of economic projections; now expecting a shallower economic contraction, but a slower recovery thereafter.

Markets have been walking a fine line, with a still-struggling economy on one side and hopes for a COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough on the other. Heading into the fourth quarter, there are both encouraging signs and cause for caution.

The risk of a “no deal” Brexit and the potential economic harm that accompanies it increased last week.

The U.S. stock market hit pause in early September, as investors took a harder look at market overconcentration and frothy sentiment. Meanwhile, global economies may be entering a new phase, and the Federal Reserve’s newly announced inflation policy is likely to keep U.S. rates lower for longer.

The Federal Reserve has changed its inflation policy. Here’s what it may mean for markets.

Rotation away from the market’s prior momentum darlings continues. Friday’s jobs report had bullets for both the optimists’ and pessimists’ case studies. And improving productivity, partly due to work-from-home trends, could persist as a positive economic driver.

Major tech-focused shares fell after helping drive the fastest stock market recovery in history.

Prior to Hurricane Laura making landfall in Louisiana and the wildfires in California and parts of the West igniting, the U.S. had already experienced 10 different billion-dollar natural disasters this year.

Bond investors face a challenging environment. The federal funds rate is back near zero, the 10-year Treasury yield remains stuck in a 0.5%-to-0.75% range, and inflation-adjusted (real) yields are deep in negative territory.

The recent imbalances in the stock market can lead to vulnerability; rebalancing portfolios may be valuable to help balance exposure to U.S. capitalization-weighted benchmarks relative to international stocks.

The move away from a precise 2% target likely means short-term rates will stay lower for longer.

In a speedy round-trip, the S&P 500 hit an all-time high last week; meaning the rally since March is now an “official” bull market.

Treasury bond yields have been drifting quietly lower since early June. But there is more going on beneath the surface than it might seem at first glance. Real yields—nominal yields less inflation—have declined steeply into negative territory. While nominal yields are near record-low levels from the deep economic decline, inflation expectations are picking up.

Confidence matters; faith in a brighter future drives risk taking, fueling growth through investment and consumption.

Although certain high-frequency data haven’t improved markedly, the threat of the virus has started to recede.

The July labor market report had talking points for both the economic bulls and bears; with Congress on the hot seat to keep the recovery from faltering.

Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities can help protect your portfolio against rising inflation, but there are nuances you should understand.

There’s a small portion of the bond market that investors may have overlooked in the past, but should now consider—the taxable municipal bond market.

Let’s take a look at how recent developments may have impacted long-term returns for stock market investors.

The U.S. dollar has fallen by about 7% against a broad basket of currencies since its mid-March peak. After a nearly decade-long bull market that saw it appreciate by more than 40%, we believe the dollar could be headed for a longer-term decline.

The Fed left rates unchanged near-zero, as expected, while emphasizing that “the path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus.”

Earnings have so far bested an extremely low bar, but stocks may be discounting too swift a recovery; while concentration remains a risk.

Investors must balance ongoing risks of the coronavirus against the extra yield the bonds provide.

If not extended or replaced, the fading support for the unemployed raises the risk of weakening economic momentum, turning the V-shaped recovery into a W.

U.S. stocks have been fairly resilient lately, even as coronavirus hotspots flare up around the country. Although consumers and businesses are increasingly worried about rolling shutdowns, major stock indexes generally have moved sideways. How long can this continue? Much depends on the shape of the economic recovery.

Rate of change and inflection points in economic data drive stocks; but in these unique times, the level of said data needs to be considered, too.

The first half of 2020 was dominated by the COVID-19 pandemic, which hit the municipal bond market hard. State and local governments experienced a sharp and sudden drop in revenue, and an increase in expenses, amid stay-at-home orders and business shutdowns.

We believe the risk that preferred-stock dividends will be suspended is low despite the recent announcement by the Federal Reserve that it is requiring banks to cap their common stock dividends.

While no one is ever really comfortable losing money, we often hear from investors that they are most uncomfortable when it seems that the stock market isn’t making any sense whether it’s heading up or down. In order to help try to make sense of it all, let’s take a look at where the stock market makes sense right now and where it doesn’t.

COVID-19 headlines dominated equity market action last week, with the S&P 500 suffering a near-3% decline; although all is not grim. The number of virus cases has been spiking in states that opened earliest—including my new home state of Florida, which went from a mid-60s average age for confirmed cases to the current mid-30s average age.

Investors should consider these various investments—cautiously. Given the challenging economic outlook and high level of uncertainty, we believe bouts of volatility are possible, albeit not to the level witnessed in February and March.

A second wave of global COVID-19 is getting a lot of media attention, but the appearance of a global second wave of cases is primarily driven by the different timing of first waves across countries—rather than second waves within countries.

As the economy reopens from COVID-19 restrictions, a question looms: What will colleges and universities look like come fall? Will students return to a more normal on-campus learning experience, some form of online experience, a combination of both … or will they simply not return?

Economies and markets whipsawed in the first half of 2020. Here’s what we expect for the rest of the year.

Returns for most fixed income asset classes are positive so far this year, but the numbers mask the rocky road markets have traveled since January.

Investors often think of municipal bonds, which are sold by local and state governments to fund public projects like building new schools and repairing city sewer systems, as being totally tax-free—but that’s not always the case.

Why did stocks rise over the past month despite grim economic news? The Federal Reserve’s massive liquidity injection is one reason.

As expected, the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at 0-0.25% and said it will keep them near zero through at least 2022, in a unanimous vote.

In our 2020 Global Market Outlook, we cited many indicators pointing to heightened risk of a recession; now we highlight increasing signs of a recovery from one.

The dominant question we’ve been getting from investors is about the perceived disconnect between what’s happening on Main Street and what’s happening on Wall Street.

There may be something amiss with the stock market rebound. Ahead of any meaningful improvement in economic data, global stocks have gained about 30% over the past two months from their low on March 23, as measured by the MSCI World Index.

When the COVID-19 crisis shook markets in March, the Federal Reserve moved early and aggressively to help increase liquidity in financial markets.

On a day that started with good news on an experimental COVID-19 vaccine, with the stock market showing strong early gains, today’s report is more visual and less wordy than normal. Since I know not every reader of these publications follows me on Twitter—where I’m constantly posting charts, tables and data that I find compelling...

Why did stocks rise over the past month despite grim economic news? The Federal Reserve’s massive liquidity injection is one reason.

It is becoming increasingly clear that the massive global stimulus is being financed by a rise in money, not debt.

Negative corporate news and economic data buffeted stocks, after markets racked up wins in April.

Both the bear market and subsequent rally have occurred at warp speed; yet the economic recovery may be disappointing to what the market’s now “priced in.”

The FOMC restated its commitment to use its full range of tools to support the virus-crippled economy and keep markets functioning smoothly.

A lot has happened in the month following global stocks’ low on March 23, as represented by the MSCI All Country World Index. Nearly every major country seems to have put the peak in new COVID-19 cases behind them by several weeks and the discussion has now turned to the timing and staging of re-openings.

Coronavirus-related stay-at-home orders and falling consumer demand have been extremely challenging for small businesses. If you’re a small-business owner, make sure you’re taking advantage of the help that’s available.

The effects of COVID-19 have been tough on the Energy sector, to say the least. With businesses around the global shuttered and vacations called off—and an estimated 40% of the global population ordered to stay at home—demand has fallen sharply. And that has taken both the price of oil and energy stocks down with it.

With the U.S. corporate default rate likely to rise, a growing number of investors may be wondering what they should do if their bond issuer is unable to repay its debts. Unfortunately, the answer isn’t always straightforward. There are, however, several things corporate bond investors should know.

Oil prices fell below zero on Monday for the first time in at least 155 years, dragging major stock indexes down, as well. West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices fell to -$37.63 per barrel during trading on Monday...

Stocks and earnings don’t always move in tandem; with stocks typically leading earnings … but is the market’s rally too much, too soon?

The COVID-19 pandemic has severely affected the U.S. economy, with containment efforts leading to widespread business closings and surging unemployment—and stock market volatility. The key questions now are when can the economy reopen, and what happens when it does?

Weak data revived investor concerns about the economic impact.

While the COVID-19 crisis is far from over, we expect central bank and government policies to be key to performance in the second quarter.

The most widely used measure of economic activity, gross domestic product (GDP), will soon be released for the first quarter by different countries.

Labor market data has never looked as ugly, with more hits to come; but many are looking ahead at what an eventual recovery will look like.

U.S. stocks ended lower Friday, capping a volatile week of swings both higher and lower, as investors reckoned with the increasing evidence of the COVID-19 pandemic’s economic toll.

Stocks dropped on Wednesday as investors focused on growing fears about the human and economic toll of COVID-19. The S&P 500 index lost 4.4% on Tuesday, and at the close of trading was down about 27% from its February peak.

In a typical recession, the global economy tends to have large imbalances that take a long time to unwind, such as a housing bubble or overinvestment by businesses. This time the global economy is experiencing a shock, rather than the natural end result of a slow build-up of excesses.

Schwab experts share their perspectives on how the legislation may affect individuals and markets.

We know a lot more about COVID-19 than we did a few weeks ago; but there remain questions that are unanswerable at this stage. We don’t know how much worse this gets before it starts to get better...

U.S. stocks fell again on Friday, ending another volatile week, as coronavirus fears outweighed central bank and government attempts to support the economy. The S&P 500 index fell 4.3% on Friday, and is now down 31.9% from its February peak.

As COVID-19 spread around the world in the early months of 2020, governments enacted quarantines, travel bans, school closings and other measures. Global supply chains were disrupted. Reduced demand is weighing on many industries, starting with travel, hospitality and leisure. Oil prices dropped after Saudi Arabia boosted production, in effect launching a price war with Russia. U.S. Treasury yields fell to record lows.

In a surprise move on Sunday night, the Federal Reserve cut its short-term interest rate to the 0% to 0.25% range and announced a series of moves to address the economic threat posed by the novel coronavirus. The central bank used a full range of its potential policies to support the economy and financial system.

Stocks rebounded on Friday, ending a week of wide swings that drove major U.S. stock indexes into bear-market territory. Overall, it was a rough week for the stock markets.

Stocks have plummeted this month as investors struggled to assess what impact the COVID-19 coronavirus may have on the economy.

U.S. stocks fell again on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing in bear market territory.

U.S. stocks plummeted on Monday, with the S&P 500 index closing down 7.6%, its worst day since 2008, capping two weeks of extreme volatility amid the spreading coronavirus epidemic.

In the easiest of times (are they ever, really?) it’s futile to make predictions about the market with any semblance of accuracy. Clearly, these are not the easiest of times; so the futility is magnified. Even with non-stop coverage of COVID-19; with every question answered, there’s another question to ask.

The coronavirus outbreak has affected global supply chains, consumer demand and interest rates. In response, we’re downgrading Financials and upgrading Utilities.

Despite lower prices and higher relative yields, there’s room for prices of high-yield bonds, preferred securities and bank loans to fall further.

In a surprise move, the Federal Reserve on Tuesday lowered the target range for the federal funds rate, its key benchmark interest rate, by 50 basis points,or half a percentage point, to a new range of 1% to 1.25%. The reasoning behind the move was concern about the “evolving risks” to the economy posed by the coronavirus.

Rather than trying to call the bottom, a more effective way to think about investing right now is to focus more on the duration rather than the decline. Markets may have further to fall, but they may not stay down for the rest of the year barring a severe pandemic.

What does a “correction” mean, what’s likely to happen next and what can investors do now?

How contained is the coronavirus outbreak? That’s the question that rattled markets on Monday, sending the Dow industrials down more than 1,000 points, or 3.6%. The S&P 500 index declined by 3.4%.

The impact of the coronavirus is spreading; both geographically and economically. Central banks will likely step in; but supply shocks are difficult to combat.

The coronavirus outbreak and the Democratic primary have affected sector leadership. However, we’re keeping our sector views unchanged—for now.

As a recovery in global manufacturing began to take hold in the fourth quarter of last year, commodity prices rose dramatically. Yet, emerging market (EM) stocks failed to see the similarly strong outperformance of U.S. stocks that typically accompanies rising commodity prices.

Although stocks rebounded after a sharp drop in January, the market’s reaction to the coronavirus outbreak highlighted stock vulnerabilities.

Friday’s jobs report, as well as other recent labor market data, has an “on the one hand; on the other hand” flavor to it.

While it is impossible to predict the extent a virus can spread and have greater consequences than past epidemics, history indicates that the global economy and markets have been relatively immune to the effects of past epidemics. A key reason is that global health organizations are prepared for outbreaks and effective when mobilized.

As expected, a long and strong move up in stocks attracts more and more believers and adherents, which can stretch sentiment to extremes, like now.

The U.S. economy split sharply in 2019—manufacturing activity lagged services, corporate profits lagged stock performance—while investor sentiment surged. How long will these divergences continue in 2020?

For nearly three years we’ve been tactically recommending overweighting large caps (S&P 500) and underweighting small caps (Russell 2000)—time for an update.

Next year is set to start on a high note, with consumers and the Fed keeping the economy and market afloat; but risks remain elevated, including trade and elections.

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, as expected; while signaling rates would stay in their current range through next year.

The U.S. economy likely will remain split in early 2020.

U.S. stocks continue to trade near their all-time highs but recent hiccups in trade talks have re-emphasized that a deal remains elusive, decisively unpredictable, and incomplete. Key components of the first phase have yet to be put in writing and major structural issues—such as intellectual property theft and forced technology transfers—will remain unaddressed for the foreseeable future, confirming that little-to-no material progress has been made.

While all eyes are on estimated sales throughout December, sector performance for the month is historically not impressive.

Market valuation is always a factor; but often misunderstood is the vastness of the spectrum of metrics, and the sentiment nature of valuation.

As we head into 2020, investors should be cautious in assuming that the return of central bank balance sheet growth means stocks will follow along. The real driver of the stock market in 2020 may be the outlook for growth tied to prospects for a comprehensive U.S.-China trade deal, which may revive growth in manufacturing and corporate earnings.

-U.S. stocks entered November in the process of finally breaking out of their post-January 2018 trading range. -Along with new highs has come elevated optimistic sentiment; a near-term warning sign. -Spread between the “smart money” and “dumb money” recently reached an extreme.

While volatility has remained subdued and U.S. stocks are at all-time highs, a near-term concern is that investor sentiment may be getting a bit too frothy. The potential signing of a “phase one” U.S.-China trade deal and rollback of some tariffs has contributed substantially to the rally; yet the proposals made have yet to be corroborated by anything in writing.

Although economic signals are mixed, bottom-up sector fundamentals help inform decisions on sector ratings.

Last week’s key releases of job growth and ISM manufacturing data highlight the ongoing bifurcation in the economy; with the consumer bucking manufacturing’s malaise.

As expected, the FOMC lowered the fed funds rate (and the IOER) by 25 basis points; with a slightly more hawkish tone in the accompanying statement.

While volatility has receded lately and geopolitical tensions haven’t heated up, little-to-no progress has been made on a comprehensive U.S.-China trade agreement; while the timetables for Brexit continue to shift. Although U.S. stocks are trading near their all-time highs, investor hesitation has persisted due to mixed economic data, the questionable effects of monetary policy and trade uncertainty. We continue to recommend that investors use volatility to rebalance and stay near their strategic asset allocations; maintaining our neutral stance on U.S. equities (with a bias toward large caps at the expense of small caps), and our neutral stance on both developed international and emerging market equities.

For certain sectors, a change in interest rates has a relatively large impact—and that impact has increased significantly in the “new normal” environment of low interest rates.

• Third quarter earnings season is underway, so it’s time to look under the hood.

• A wide gap between S&P 500 profits and the broader NIPA measure from the BEA supports a late-cycle view.

• The late-cycle view is also supported by weakening leading indicators.

Volatility has resurfaced due to a revival in trade tensions, heated political fighting in Washington, and confusion over whether the Fed will continue to ease or hold off on rate cuts later this month. Stocks have dropped back into a tight range and have still yet to breach their all-time highs. With the market still highly reactionary to major headlines and struggling to find its footing, we continue to recommend that investors stay near their long-term asset allocation. We also continue to recommend using volatility as a means of rebalancing; and maintaining a bias toward large-cap stocks at the expense of small caps. So long as myriad uncertainties continue to mount, we believe stocks will remain under some pressure and headway will be limited.

With a resurfacing in trade tensions and persistent economic uncertainties, investors should prepare for further volatility.

Employment reports are increasingly in focus due to weak survey data and a risk that manufacturing’s weakness spills over to services/consumer segments.

U.S. stocks plunged Wednesday, as weak economic data rattled investors. Here’s what you should know.

While U.S. stocks emerged out of their tight range a couple weeks ago, they have yet to surpass their July highs—as trade uncertainties remain, economic data continues to be mixed, and cloudy monetary policy and political outlooks persist.

It continues to be a difficult environment in which to trade around short-term news, even if short-term news is having an outsized impact on market behavior.

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index was flat last month; and although at a cycle high, it remains in a flattish trend over the past year.

In line with expectations, the FOMC cut rates by 25 basis points; also lowering the IOER by 30 basis points to address liquidity problems in the repo market.

Stocks have climbed higher but we don’t recommend attempting to trade around short-term moves; rather, investors should remain disciplined and diversified, and use any volatility to rebalance as needed. The consumer continues to drive the economy, while weakness is mostly still concentrated in manufacturing. Yet, the potential for volatility remains, as a comprehensive trade deal is not in sight, tariffs on consumer goods are still set to kick in on December 15, and monetary policy’s ability to spur growth and inflation may be waning. We continue to favor large caps over small caps and are neutral to U.S. and global equities.

Stocks recently broke out of their short-term range on “good” trade news; but trying to trade around trade-related news has been a treacherous exercise.

Risks to the market are growing but the American consumer continues to look strong. Some preparation for a potential storm are prudent, but no drastic actions are suggested.

It doesn’t appear that the U.S. has entered a recession yet, or even that one is imminent—although start dates to recessions typically aren’t known until we’re looking in the rear-view mirror.

Economic uncertainty has spiked given the escalating U.S.-China trade war; with increasing risk it weakens the dividing line between the manufacturing and consumer sectors.

Stock markets have become more volatile as trade tensions have worsened and weakness in the manufacturing side of the economy has caused increasing concern. Swift resolutions to these issues seem unlikely and a dovish Fed may not be the elixir to what ails the economy. With the likelihood of persistent volatility in the coming months, we recommend investors stay broadly diversified and focused on the long term. From a tactical perspective, we remain neutral to U.S. and global equities; with a bias within the U.S. market toward large cap stocks relative to small caps. Investors should not attempt to trade around short-term moves in the equity markets; but instead remain disciplined, diversified, and use rebalancing as necessary.

Current economic conditions do not look recessionary, but risks are rising and if we’re heading into one, it’s possible it already started.

Market volatility can make anyone nervous. Here’s what investors should know about dealing with it.

The manufacturing side of the economy is showing increasing signs of weakness, but the consumer still looks healthy—which side wins and what should investors do?

When the Federal Reserve lowers its key short-term interest rate, financial markets often move in response. But the impact isn’t uniform across the board.

The national debt and deficits remain at worrisome levels, spawning questions of how economic growth will be affected and whether we will hit another wall.

Stocks have been buoyed by rate cut expectations, but are investors putting too much stock in monetary policy and setting themselves up for potential disappointments?

Round number crosses for each of the three major U.S. equity averages over the past month helped elevate investor sentiment, but is it now stretched?

If you just woke from an 18-month slumber and looked at the market you might be fooled into thinking it’s gone nowhere; but what a ride it’s been.

In the first half of 2019, major stock indexes including the S&P 500^® reached new highs, yet the outlook for global economic growth softened. Recession risk has risen, and rising tariffs have created even more uncertainty.

The last 18 months have been anything but boring, but if you had ignored the market over that time and only recently started paying attention, you may think that little has happened. The running in place analogy is probably better replaced by hiking a mountain.