Energy infrastructure companies are known for their free cash flow generation and generous, growing dividends. But what are the long-term growth drivers for these businesses and how do structural trends in energy benefit midstream/MLPs?
Stock buybacks have boomed in recent years. With corporate cash flows remaining high and potential rate cuts from the Fed, the trend appears set to continue.
We are entering a time I think will include a deep crisis. We are going to need each other. We really do need to “find our tribe.”
ETFs saw a record number of inflows in August, including bond-focused funds, which are offering opportunities in corporate debt.
The U.S. economy may be heading into choppy waters, and investors might be wise to buckle up.
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Investment Strategist BeiChen Lin assessed the state of the economy, including the health of the services and manufacturing sectors, and the likelihood of a big rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.
High-yield investors put off by today’s narrow spreads could be missing out.
The main focus for investors should is no longer if the Fed will cut rates in 2024, but how much and how quickly the Fed will lower interest rates.
Recent growth data have been muddled and subject to conflicting interpretations. There have been mixed signals from leading indicators and hard data and divergent readings across major economies.
Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said that while the August employment report wasn’t particularly poor, it did make predicting the size of the Federal Reserve’s likely interest-rate cut this month a tougher call.
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, a.k.a. Mr. Valuation and Professor Nathan Mauck, Phd. are going to talk about how to approach dividend growth stocks-focusing on the health of the dividend, the growth of the dividend. Smart investing with research-driven principles.
As market sensitivity to economic data continues, investors would do well to consider active strategies amidst ongoing volatility.
After two days of record sales in the US blue-chip corporate debt market, another 11 companies are looking to sell bonds on Thursday, and demand for the securities is holding strong by key measures.
Former President Donald Trump’s proposals for targeted tax breaks are resonating with battleground-state voters, who overwhelmingly approve of his ideas to eliminate taxes on tipped income and retirement benefits.
We think the decline in the S&P 500 Index on Tuesday may be more technical than fundamental.
The concept of portable alpha is over 40 years old. And while it has evolved through various forms over that time, it continues to be a valuable portfolio tool for institutional investors. Arguably, the most popular iteration right now is adding alpha expected from hedge funds on top of synthetic beta exposure.
Gold is typically an asset that doesn’t generate yield, but there are ETFs that deliver yield on a gold position through options.
The yield on the 10-year note ended September 6, 2024 at 3.72%, the 2-year note ended at 3.66%, and the 30-year at 4.03%.
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of those indicators, nonfarm employment. August saw a 142,000 increase in total nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment fell to 4.2%.
The latest employment report showed 142,000 jobs were added in August, falling short of the expected addition of 164,000 new jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked lower to 4.2%.
Most people see “blockchain” and “funds” in the same sentence and immediately think of pools of money betting on cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ether. That isn’t how Singapore sees the utility of distributed ledgers.
US hiring fell short of forecasts in August after downward revisions to the prior two months, a development likely to fuel ongoing debate over how much the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates.
US Treasuries gained and traders ramped up their bets that the Federal Reserve will opt for a supersized interest-rate cut this month after a mixed report on the US labor market.
The world’s biggest asset manager is taking some chips off the table as markets enter a “new phase” of turbulence ahead of a Federal Reserve interest rate cutting cycle and the US presidential election.
In a recent discussion with Adam Taggart via Thoughtful Money, we quickly touched on the similarities between the U.S. and Japanese monetary policies around the 11-minute mark. However, that discussion warrants a deeper dive. As we will review, Japan has much to tell us about the future of the U.S. economically.
Money can still be a factor in inflation.
Candidate tax policies could affect municipal bonds, but the bigger picture is important too.
With Labor Day now in the rearview mirror, the money and bond markets will no doubt become laser focused on the September FOMC meeting. Yes, Fed Chair Powell telegraphed that a rate cut is forthcoming, but he also emphasized how monetary policy is still data dependent.
Recent changes to the FAFSA form and process include a simpler form, fewer questions and a revised eligibility formula. Our Bill Cass highlights what you need to know to apply for federal financial aid for college.
Presidential elections tend to have limited impact on market performance, regardless of party win (although markets prefer Democratic switches). Investors should capitalize on the uptick in market volatility, which investors can use for strategic investing.
We often write about the opportunity for fixed income investors to lock in relatively attractive long-term rates. And we would argue that investment consultants and financial advisors have no more important charge than to convince their clients to take advantage of this while they still can.
High interest rates have had the predictable effect of restraining the performances of dividend stocks and related exchange traded funds.
Private assets are the fastest-growing market in the financial world, but could be the most challenging field for ETF providers to penetrate.
The Federal Reserve is creating the potential for extreme bouts of volatility surrounded economic data releases.
Tax policies touted in the US presidential election could have a big impact on S&P 500 earnings, according to Goldman Sachs Inc. strategists.
The bold bet from the likes of Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. that the Federal Reserve will slash interest rates by a half-percentage-point this month faces its biggest test yet from Friday’s US jobs report.
Despite pullbacks and elevated volatility in the earlier days of the month, major equity indices were up in August.
Jane Street Group LLC and Citadel Securities are on a tear. First-half revenue at the two predominantly electronic market makers grew about 80% compared with the first six months of 2023, according to Bloomberg News. That’s enough to make traditional Wall Street executives green with envy — but these upstarts aren’t going to completely devour the old guards’ lunch.
A key segment of the US Treasury yield curve briefly turned positive as weaker-than-anticipated labor-market data bolstered bets on steep interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Investors should be careful what they wish for in hoping for an aggressive Fed rate cutting cycle, given stocks tend to do better when cuts are slow and steady.
When we’re viewing markets, it’s not surprising sentiment shifts quickly if we don’t instantly see the anticipated results. Market pundits quickly point fingers and determine the Fed, economists, and participants are wrong. Reactions can be powerful in number and sway momentum for stocks and/or bonds.
A bright spot in Chinese investment could spell trouble for its financial institutions.
After a decade of consistent outperformance, Japanese small caps began underperforming their large cap peers in 2018, a trend that has accelerated since 2023.
This week’s data reflects the resilience of the U.S. economy. Currently, the economy is holding steady with jobless claims in the 230,000 range and recent inflation data showing stability. Friday’s inflation report was essentially at expectations and indicates that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will make a rate cut of at least 25 basis points (bps) at the September meeting. Whether the cut is 25 or 50 will depend mostly on this week’s employment report.
We’ve always admired the great artistry of David Byrne from the Band Talking Heads. My favorite song of theirs is “Once in a Lifetime.” We think this song can tell our readers a great deal about how to look at our portfolio as we navigate an expensive and maniacal S&P 500 Index environment.
This week I had the chance to run a half-day workshop helping seasoned, successful advisors learn techniques for emerging as strong leaders, so I’ll share some of the information here in this column.
In this edition, Harold Evensky explores the challenges facing sustainable and active funds, the implications of the new DOL Fiduciary Rule, and the value of long-term performance projections. With candid observations and critical analysis--read on to gain perspective on navigating the complex world of investing, the importance of risk management, and the role of fiduciary advisors in securing your financial future.
Bond traders are bracing for wilder market swings in the US than in Europe, as signs the world’s largest economy is faltering fuel bets on a jumbo interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve.
A record number of blue-chip firms swarmed the US corporate bond market on Tuesday, taking advantage of cheaper borrowing costs as they look to issue debt ahead of the US presidential election.
The case for infrastructure investment is rising, but so are its costs.
With his Jackson Hole speech, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell all but promised rate cuts were coming. That’s cool. But it is why that matters.
A soft landing for the U.S. economy still appears to be the most likely outcome.
As more Chinese companies get comfortable paying dividends, investors may find new sources of equity return potential.
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Director and Senior Investment Strategist Alex Cousley and ESG and Active Ownership Analyst Zoe Warganz discussed key takeaways from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the August 2024 close.
With the Q2 GDP second estimate and the August close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 194.9%, down from 197.4% the previous quarter.
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. On August 4, 2020, the 10-year Treasury yield hit its all-time low of 0.52%. As of August 31, it was 3.91%.
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $17,095 for an annualized real return of 10.77%.
Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 27.2 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 34.9.
Few human activities are more central to historiography than war, and yet historians are poorly equipped to understand its evolutionary and psychological roots: Why War? attempts, with only partial success, to close this gap.
Half your coworkers might have just spent August in Europe, but there were no holiday doldrums in the booming world of ETFs.
Apple Inc.’s upcoming iPhone release has sent its stock price soaring because of promised artificial-intelligence features. Those gains appear vulnerable, at least in the short term, if history is any guide.
In our view, stagflation scenarios tend to be worse for balanced portfolios than recessions.
This week saw a nontech giant cross a unique milestone and a tech giant’s earnings report become a Mainstreet sensation.
As noted in this past weekend’s newsletter, following the “Yen Carry Trade” blowup just three weeks ago, the market has quickly reverted to more extreme short-term overbought conditions.
I asked my great friend and business partner David Bahnsen, who is about as politically wired as anyone and one of the truly great economic and investment minds, to reflect on the intersection of politics and markets. It is a quick, balanced, and reasonable read...
As I write this, gold continues to trade above $2,500 an ounce after surging past the psychologically important level for the first time ever in mid-August. For seasoned gold mining investors, this should be a moment of validation. After all, the yellow metal has long been seen as the ultimate hedge against economic uncertainty.
As of August 31, 2024, the 10-year note was 339 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52% reached on August 4, 2020.
Seven of our eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through August 30th, 2024. The U.S.'s S&P 500 finished in the top spot with a year-to-date gain of 19.09%. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 finished in second with a year-to-date gain of 15.49% while India's BSE SENSEX finished in third with a year-to-date gain of 14.57%.
The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of August 23rd, the index was at 24.827, down 1.545 from the previous week, with 4 of the 6 components in expansion territory.
Whatever the exact cause of recent volatility, the more significant point is that it was an opportunity to add credit risk amid a positive outlook for underlying fundamentals.
A number of myths exist about value investing as it pertains to timing the economic cycle, interest rates, and elections.
The forthcoming presidential election is certainly adding a healthy dose of intrigue into the municipal bond space.
Has the tide turned decisively against King Dollar? A fall of around 5% in the greenback versus major currencies in the past two months, pushing the dollar index to a 13-month low, suggests its post-pandemic surge has meaningfully faltered.
Establishing the optimal workplace retirement plan follows a pecking order, which starts by prioritizing plan design over investments. Our Mike Dullaghan discusses the process.
Investors pursuing widely followed 60/40 strategies should consider swapping out bonds for commodities, according to strategists at Bank of America Corp.
The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of underlying US inflation rose at a mild pace and household spending picked up in July, reinforcing policymakers’ plan to start cutting interest rates next month.
The US economic data released in early August not only triggered a brief, but dramatic episode of financial-market volatility. It also fueled an abnormal degree of instability in forecasts by leading Wall Street economists, suggesting that they, like the Federal Reserve, may have lost their strategic bearings.
As tax season draws nearer, advisors and investors increasingly look to their portfolio to optimize exposures for taxation purposes.
Valid until the market close on September 30, 2024
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for July showed that core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 2.6%. The July core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 3.2%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.
Consumer attitudes are measured by two monthly surveys: the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). In August, the MCSI rose for the first time in 5 months, inching up to 67.94. Meanwhile, the CCI increased to 103.3, its highest level in 6 months.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.32% in July and is up 4.1% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.16% month-over-month and up 1.6% year-over-year.
Consumer sentiment rose for the first time in five months, according to the final August report for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The index rose 1.5 points (2.3%) from July's final reading to 67.9. The latest reading was above the forecast of 67.8.
With the release of July's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.21% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.06% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 3.09% nominal and 0.58% real.
The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report revealed inflation remained at its lowest level since early 2021. The PCE price index, the Fed's favored measure of inflation, was up 2.5% year-over-year, just below the forecasted 2.6% growth. On a monthly basis, PCE inflation was up 0.2% from June, as expected.
When you see that behavior at extreme valuations, it tends to be a sign of underlying skittishness and risk aversion. When valuations are setting record extremes because the news can’t get any better, even a slightly less optimistic outlook becomes a risk.
China's economic transformation presents both challenges and opportunities for global markets.
Income
Midstream/MLPs: What’s Fueling Long-Term Growth?
Energy infrastructure companies are known for their free cash flow generation and generous, growing dividends. But what are the long-term growth drivers for these businesses and how do structural trends in energy benefit midstream/MLPs?
With Rate Cuts Ahead, Stock Buybacks May Continue
Stock buybacks have boomed in recent years. With corporate cash flows remaining high and potential rate cuts from the Fed, the trend appears set to continue.
The Time Has Come
We are entering a time I think will include a deep crisis. We are going to need each other. We really do need to “find our tribe.”
Higher ETF Inflows Could Benefit Corporate Bond Funds
ETFs saw a record number of inflows in August, including bond-focused funds, which are offering opportunities in corporate debt.
The Yield Curve Inversion Just Ended, but Economic Risks Remain
The U.S. economy may be heading into choppy waters, and investors might be wise to buckle up.
Health Check: How Is the U.S. Economy Holding Up?
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Investment Strategist BeiChen Lin assessed the state of the economy, including the health of the services and manufacturing sectors, and the likelihood of a big rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.
High-Yield Opportunity Persists, Despite Tight Spreads
High-yield investors put off by today’s narrow spreads could be missing out.
Fed Rate Cuts Coming in September: What’s Next?
The main focus for investors should is no longer if the Fed will cut rates in 2024, but how much and how quickly the Fed will lower interest rates.
Back to School: Macro Cliff Notes and a Look Ahead
Recent growth data have been muddled and subject to conflicting interpretations. There have been mixed signals from leading indicators and hard data and divergent readings across major economies.
Summers Says Jobs Weakness Makes It Closer Call on Fed Going 50
Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said that while the August employment report wasn’t particularly poor, it did make predicting the size of the Federal Reserve’s likely interest-rate cut this month a tougher call.
Smart Investing with Dividend Growth Stocks: Research-Driven Principles
In this video, Chuck Carnevale, Co-Founder of FAST Graphs, a.k.a. Mr. Valuation and Professor Nathan Mauck, Phd. are going to talk about how to approach dividend growth stocks-focusing on the health of the dividend, the growth of the dividend. Smart investing with research-driven principles.
August’s PMI Underscores Need for Active Management
As market sensitivity to economic data continues, investors would do well to consider active strategies amidst ongoing volatility.
Blue-Chip Company Debt Deluge Hits Record Two-Day Streak
After two days of record sales in the US blue-chip corporate debt market, another 11 companies are looking to sell bonds on Thursday, and demand for the securities is holding strong by key measures.
Voters Love No Tax on Tips, But Split Over $25,000 Housing Help
Former President Donald Trump’s proposals for targeted tax breaks are resonating with battleground-state voters, who overwhelmingly approve of his ideas to eliminate taxes on tipped income and retirement benefits.
Volatility Strikes in September: Our Thoughts
We think the decline in the S&P 500 Index on Tuesday may be more technical than fundamental.
Portable Alpha: Divorcing and Remarrying Alpha and Beta
The concept of portable alpha is over 40 years old. And while it has evolved through various forms over that time, it continues to be a valuable portfolio tool for institutional investors. Arguably, the most popular iteration right now is adding alpha expected from hedge funds on top of synthetic beta exposure.
Why Now & How: 3 ETF Ways to Access Gold Ahead of Rate Move
Gold is typically an asset that doesn’t generate yield, but there are ETFs that deliver yield on a gold position through options.
Treasury Yields Snapshot: September 6, 2024
The yield on the 10-year note ended September 6, 2024 at 3.72%, the 2-year note ended at 3.66%, and the 30-year at 4.03%.
The Big Four Recession Indicators
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: August Employment
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of those indicators, nonfarm employment. August saw a 142,000 increase in total nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment fell to 4.2%.
Employment Report: 142K Jobs Added in August, Less Than Expected
The latest employment report showed 142,000 jobs were added in August, falling short of the expected addition of 164,000 new jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked lower to 4.2%.
Why Singapore Is Bringing Blockchain Into Mutual Funds
Most people see “blockchain” and “funds” in the same sentence and immediately think of pools of money betting on cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ether. That isn’t how Singapore sees the utility of distributed ledgers.
US Job Growth Comes Up Short in Possible Warning Sign for Fed
US hiring fell short of forecasts in August after downward revisions to the prior two months, a development likely to fuel ongoing debate over how much the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates.
Traders Add to Bets on Jumbo Fed Cuts as Data Fuels Bond Rally
US Treasuries gained and traders ramped up their bets that the Federal Reserve will opt for a supersized interest-rate cut this month after a mixed report on the US labor market.
BlackRock Dials Back Risk Across $131 Billion Model Portfolios
The world’s biggest asset manager is taking some chips off the table as markets enter a “new phase” of turbulence ahead of a Federal Reserve interest rate cutting cycle and the US presidential election.
Japanese Style Policies And The Future Of America
In a recent discussion with Adam Taggart via Thoughtful Money, we quickly touched on the similarities between the U.S. and Japanese monetary policies around the 11-minute mark. However, that discussion warrants a deeper dive. As we will review, Japan has much to tell us about the future of the U.S. economically.
Musings on the Money Supply
Money can still be a factor in inflation.
The 2024 US Election and Municipal Bonds: What to Know
Candidate tax policies could affect municipal bonds, but the bigger picture is important too.
Inflation Now Taking a Back Seat
With Labor Day now in the rearview mirror, the money and bond markets will no doubt become laser focused on the September FOMC meeting. Yes, Fed Chair Powell telegraphed that a rate cut is forthcoming, but he also emphasized how monetary policy is still data dependent.
Navigating Financial Aid: New FAFSA Rules and Tips for Families
Recent changes to the FAFSA form and process include a simpler form, fewer questions and a revised eligibility formula. Our Bill Cass highlights what you need to know to apply for federal financial aid for college.
Maintain Your Investment Strategy During Election Years
Presidential elections tend to have limited impact on market performance, regardless of party win (although markets prefer Democratic switches). Investors should capitalize on the uptick in market volatility, which investors can use for strategic investing.
Two in the Bush: Still Time to Lock in Long-Term Rates
We often write about the opportunity for fixed income investors to lock in relatively attractive long-term rates. And we would argue that investment consultants and financial advisors have no more important charge than to convince their clients to take advantage of this while they still can.
Rate Cuts Could Stoke Dividend Stock Renaissance
High interest rates have had the predictable effect of restraining the performances of dividend stocks and related exchange traded funds.
Can ETFs Capture Private Equity Markets?
Private assets are the fastest-growing market in the financial world, but could be the most challenging field for ETF providers to penetrate.
Volatility Cocktail
The Federal Reserve is creating the potential for extreme bouts of volatility surrounded economic data releases.
S&P 500 Earnings Hinge on Trump, Harris Tax Plans, Goldman Says
Tax policies touted in the US presidential election could have a big impact on S&P 500 earnings, according to Goldman Sachs Inc. strategists.
Wall Street’s Big Bet on Jumbo Fed Cuts Hangs on US Jobs Report
The bold bet from the likes of Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. that the Federal Reserve will slash interest rates by a half-percentage-point this month faces its biggest test yet from Friday’s US jobs report.
Fed Rate Cuts Give Higher Probability of the Great Rotation Occurring
Despite pullbacks and elevated volatility in the earlier days of the month, major equity indices were up in August.
Jane Street and Citadel Won’t Devour All of Wall Street’s Revenue
Jane Street Group LLC and Citadel Securities are on a tear. First-half revenue at the two predominantly electronic market makers grew about 80% compared with the first six months of 2023, according to Bloomberg News. That’s enough to make traditional Wall Street executives green with envy — but these upstarts aren’t going to completely devour the old guards’ lunch.
US Yield Curve Disinverts as Soft Labor Data Fuels Fed Cut Bets
A key segment of the US Treasury yield curve briefly turned positive as weaker-than-anticipated labor-market data bolstered bets on steep interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
It's Time … For a Fed Pivot
Investors should be careful what they wish for in hoping for an aggressive Fed rate cutting cycle, given stocks tend to do better when cuts are slow and steady.
A Slow Moving Economic Cycle
When we’re viewing markets, it’s not surprising sentiment shifts quickly if we don’t instantly see the anticipated results. Market pundits quickly point fingers and determine the Fed, economists, and participants are wrong. Reactions can be powerful in number and sway momentum for stocks and/or bonds.
China’s Bond Market Rally
A bright spot in Chinese investment could spell trouble for its financial institutions.
Small Wonders: Overlooked Japan Small Caps Poised for Resurgence
After a decade of consistent outperformance, Japanese small caps began underperforming their large cap peers in 2018, a trend that has accelerated since 2023.
A Careful Recalibration Needed
This week’s data reflects the resilience of the U.S. economy. Currently, the economy is holding steady with jobless claims in the 230,000 range and recent inflation data showing stability. Friday’s inflation report was essentially at expectations and indicates that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will make a rate cut of at least 25 basis points (bps) at the September meeting. Whether the cut is 25 or 50 will depend mostly on this week’s employment report.
Same as it Ever Was
We’ve always admired the great artistry of David Byrne from the Band Talking Heads. My favorite song of theirs is “Once in a Lifetime.” We think this song can tell our readers a great deal about how to look at our portfolio as we navigate an expensive and maniacal S&P 500 Index environment.
What Every Leader Should Understand
This week I had the chance to run a half-day workshop helping seasoned, successful advisors learn techniques for emerging as strong leaders, so I’ll share some of the information here in this column.
Navigating the Investment Landscape: Insights and Warnings
In this edition, Harold Evensky explores the challenges facing sustainable and active funds, the implications of the new DOL Fiduciary Rule, and the value of long-term performance projections. With candid observations and critical analysis--read on to gain perspective on navigating the complex world of investing, the importance of risk management, and the role of fiduciary advisors in securing your financial future.
Bond Volatility in US Eclipses Europe as Recession Angst Rises
Bond traders are bracing for wilder market swings in the US than in Europe, as signs the world’s largest economy is faltering fuel bets on a jumbo interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve.
Firms Pile Into Bond Market in Busiest Day on Record
A record number of blue-chip firms swarmed the US corporate bond market on Tuesday, taking advantage of cheaper borrowing costs as they look to issue debt ahead of the US presidential election.
Reinforcing Economic Foundations
The case for infrastructure investment is rising, but so are its costs.
Navigating Earnings Season: Tailwinds of Tomorrow
With his Jackson Hole speech, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell all but promised rate cuts were coming. That’s cool. But it is why that matters.
August Sees Markets Close Strong After Tough Start
A soft landing for the U.S. economy still appears to be the most likely outcome.
Chinese Equities: How Investors Can Unlock the Power of Dividends
As more Chinese companies get comfortable paying dividends, investors may find new sources of equity return potential.
Key Highlights From Q2 Earnings Season Around the Globe
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Director and Senior Investment Strategist Alex Cousley and ESG and Active Ownership Analyst Zoe Warganz discussed key takeaways from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since Their 2000 Highs
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the August 2024 close.
Buffett Valuation Indicator: August 2024
With the Q2 GDP second estimate and the August close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 194.9%, down from 197.4% the previous quarter.
Market Valuation, Inflation and Treasury Yields - August 2024
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. On August 4, 2020, the 10-year Treasury yield hit its all-time low of 0.52%. As of August 31, it was 3.91%.
The Total Return Roller Coaster
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $17,095 for an annualized real return of 10.77%.
Market Valuation: Is the Market Still Overvalued?
Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.
P/E10 and Market Valuation: August 2024
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 27.2 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 34.9.
The Problem with Human Beings
Few human activities are more central to historiography than war, and yet historians are poorly equipped to understand its evolutionary and psychological roots: Why War? attempts, with only partial success, to close this gap.
Sizzling ETF Flows in Manic Markets Fuel a $609 Billion Haul
Half your coworkers might have just spent August in Europe, but there were no holiday doldrums in the booming world of ETFs.
Apple Rally Fueled by AI Promises Approaches a Crucial Test
Apple Inc.’s upcoming iPhone release has sent its stock price soaring because of promised artificial-intelligence features. Those gains appear vulnerable, at least in the short term, if history is any guide.
Stagflation vs. Recession
In our view, stagflation scenarios tend to be worse for balanced portfolios than recessions.
Berkshire Hathaway vs Nvidia: The Battle Between Value & Growth
This week saw a nontech giant cross a unique milestone and a tech giant’s earnings report become a Mainstreet sensation.
Overbought Conditions Set Up Short-Term Correction
As noted in this past weekend’s newsletter, following the “Yen Carry Trade” blowup just three weeks ago, the market has quickly reverted to more extreme short-term overbought conditions.
Your Portfolio and the Election
I asked my great friend and business partner David Bahnsen, who is about as politically wired as anyone and one of the truly great economic and investment minds, to reflect on the intersection of politics and markets. It is a quick, balanced, and reasonable read...
Why Gold Stocks Could Be a Contrarian Investor’s Dream Right Now
As I write this, gold continues to trade above $2,500 an ounce after surging past the psychologically important level for the first time ever in mid-August. For seasoned gold mining investors, this should be a moment of validation. After all, the yellow metal has long been seen as the ultimate hedge against economic uncertainty.
Treasury Yields: A Long-Term Perspective
As of August 31, 2024, the 10-year note was 339 basis points above its historic closing low of 0.52% reached on August 4, 2020.
World Markets Watchlist: August 30, 2024
Seven of our eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through August 30th, 2024. The U.S.'s S&P 500 finished in the top spot with a year-to-date gain of 19.09%. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 finished in second with a year-to-date gain of 15.49% while India's BSE SENSEX finished in third with a year-to-date gain of 14.57%.
RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Economic Index
The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of August 23rd, the index was at 24.827, down 1.545 from the previous week, with 4 of the 6 components in expansion territory.
Fixed Income Perspectives: We Said to Expect Volatility
Whatever the exact cause of recent volatility, the more significant point is that it was an opportunity to add credit risk amid a positive outlook for underlying fundamentals.
Don’t Fall for These 3 Value Investing Myths
A number of myths exist about value investing as it pertains to timing the economic cycle, interest rates, and elections.
Election Year Adds Intrigue to Municipal Bonds
The forthcoming presidential election is certainly adding a healthy dose of intrigue into the municipal bond space.
King Dollar's Softening Is Good News for Nearly Everyone
Has the tide turned decisively against King Dollar? A fall of around 5% in the greenback versus major currencies in the past two months, pushing the dollar index to a 13-month low, suggests its post-pandemic surge has meaningfully faltered.
The Pecking Order of 401(K) Plan Design: A Bird’s Eye View
Establishing the optimal workplace retirement plan follows a pecking order, which starts by prioritizing plan design over investments. Our Mike Dullaghan discusses the process.
Swap Bonds for Commodities in 60/40 Funds, BofA Strategists Say
Investors pursuing widely followed 60/40 strategies should consider swapping out bonds for commodities, according to strategists at Bank of America Corp.
Fed Favored Inflation Gauge’s Mild Gain Sets Stage for Rate Cut
The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of underlying US inflation rose at a mild pace and household spending picked up in July, reinforcing policymakers’ plan to start cutting interest rates next month.
Analytical Volatility Is Worse than Market Whiplash
The US economic data released in early August not only triggered a brief, but dramatic episode of financial-market volatility. It also fueled an abnormal degree of instability in forecasts by leading Wall Street economists, suggesting that they, like the Federal Reserve, may have lost their strategic bearings.
The Tax Implications of Your Short-Term Investments
As tax season draws nearer, advisors and investors increasingly look to their portfolio to optimize exposures for taxation purposes.
Moving Averages: S&P Finishes August 2024 Up 2.3%
Valid until the market close on September 30, 2024
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
Two Measures of Inflation: July 2024
The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for July showed that core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 2.6%. The July core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 3.2%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.
Two Measures of Consumer Attitudes: August 2024
Consumer attitudes are measured by two monthly surveys: the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). In August, the MCSI rose for the first time in 5 months, inching up to 67.94. Meanwhile, the CCI increased to 103.3, its highest level in 6 months.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income Up 0.2% in July
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.32% in July and is up 4.1% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.16% month-over-month and up 1.6% year-over-year.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Rose for First Time in 5 Months
Consumer sentiment rose for the first time in five months, according to the final August report for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The index rose 1.5 points (2.3%) from July's final reading to 67.9. The latest reading was above the forecast of 67.8.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Up 0.1% in July
With the release of July's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.21% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.06% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 3.09% nominal and 0.58% real.
PCE Inflation Rises 2.5% in July, Less Than Expected
The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report revealed inflation remained at its lowest level since early 2021. The PCE price index, the Fed's favored measure of inflation, was up 2.5% year-over-year, just below the forecasted 2.6% growth. On a monthly basis, PCE inflation was up 0.2% from June, as expected.
Fed Pivots and Baby Aspirin
When you see that behavior at extreme valuations, it tends to be a sign of underlying skittishness and risk aversion. When valuations are setting record extremes because the news can’t get any better, even a slightly less optimistic outlook becomes a risk.
China's Growth Evolution: Opportunities and Challenges for the Global Economy
China's economic transformation presents both challenges and opportunities for global markets.