Our outlook on the 11 S&P 500 equity sectors.
The odds are good that Santa won’t disappoint in 2024. Here’s the history of the past 99 Decembers, compared to the other months.
he economic-policy consensus that prevails in the US is right about one thing.
As a concept, environmentally responsible investing is in its flop era. Right-wing backlash has turned “ESG” into a four-letter word in terrified corporate boardrooms.
Just a few short years (months?) ago, few would have believed it possible. But it happened: Bitcoin has traded above $100,000 for the first time ever.
In the port city of Duluth, Minnesota, local activists and Washington-based groups are coalescing to scrutinize — and possibly stall — a $6.2 billion acquisition of a power utility led by Global Infrastructure Partners.
In their 2025 outlook, Head of Americas Equities Marc Pinto and Head of EMEA and Asia Pacific Equities Lucas Klein say a changing macroeconomic backdrop could create new pockets of leadership in global equity markets.
Our research suggests that healthcare firms with sound pay practices may yield healthier returns.
It’s the anniversary of the first-ever controlled nuclear fission chain reaction. And it’s the day that Enron filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 2001.
With human rights regulations expanding, investors need a broader approach to assessing risk and opportunity.
When it comes to personalized investment strategies, multiple perspectives come into play: the client, the provider and the advisor.
Investors are scrambling to decide if Donald Trump’s impending return to the White House will sustain or derail the rally in emerging-market bonds witnessed under Joe Biden.
Policy changes could reshape return potential for companies across the US market. Here’s how investors can start thinking about the challenges ahead.
VettaFi spoke recently with Nate Williams, a vice president and ETF specialist with Franklin Templeton, about the growth of its ETF business.
Most Americans, from both parties, say the government needs to increase the supply of affordable housing. For President-elect Donald Trump, that should offer a good opportunity to summon his instincts for development — and self-promotion — to get America building again. Call it the “Trump Building Boom.”
The global transition to clean energy should open opportunities for fixed income investors in bond funds that focus on the ESG theme.
With President-elect Donald Trump set to assume office in January, the U.S. military and cybersecurity sectors could experience sweeping changes, creating opportunities for investors who recognize the long-term growth potential in defense and technology.
Your fixed income strategy does not necessarily need to be adjusted based on every personnel or environmental change.
Change is on the horizon for hard working Americans saving for their future, as 401(k) plans are now embracing private market investments. Savers may soon have access to opportunities previously reserved for institutional investors.
Marc Pinto, Head of Americas Equities, and Lucas Klein, Head of EMEA and Asia Pacific Equities, say a surprisingly straightforward U.S. election could provide additional momentum to U.S. stocks through the end of 2024. But it remains to be seen how policy will impact future earnings—the real driver of long-term returns.
Over the past few years, investors and regulators have increased scrutiny of greenwashing.
Franklin Templeton Fixed Income believes investing in companies promoting gender equality and diversity can lead to inclusivity and strong financial returns. Despite the persistent gender gap, there's an increase in women in leadership roles, positively impacting financial performance, corporate governance and crisis resilience.
With Direct Indexing, you can help your clients prepare for life-changing transactions and minimize capital gains taxes by selectively harvesting losses to offset those gains, and implementing tax-efficient trading strategies.
I was emailed several times about a recent Morningstar article about J.P. Morgan’s warning of lower forward returns over the next decade. That was followed up by numerous emails about Goldman Sachs’ recent warnings of 3% annualized returns over the next decade.
Integrating the physical toll of climate change helps investors spot key risks—and opportunities.
In a corner of the credit market that regulators last year characterized as a potential hot-bed of greenwashing, there are signs that bankers have been cracking down on corporate pitches.
Join the experts at Adasina Social Capital for a free educational webcast that explores a social justice investing strategy that could boost your portfolio and help bring more equity into the world.
Seasonality has long influenced stock market trends, offering insights into predictable cycles of strength and weakness throughout the year. Yale Hirsch, the creator of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, is one of the most well-known contributors to studying these patterns.
Been with the same employer for 10 years or more? That doesn’t exactly make you a rarity in the US, where 30.2% of employed wage and salary workers were in that situation as of January 2024, according to data released last month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. And while this percentage is down from a decade ago, it’s close to where things stood for the much of the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s.
We don’t talk about China enough. I suspect this is for several reasons. First, because the country is so incomprehensibly big and populous. Second, it has been an economic miracle. Many Chinese enthusiasts just see a straight line projection of their growth. To the moon, Alice!
Even with inflation well and truly on the way down after the most aggressive interest-rate tightening in a generation, central banks are averse to declarations of victory. That the pace of price increases has been reined in without a major economic downturn is an accomplishment that warrants some trumpeting.
Advisors and their clients who seek to take advantage of the potential rewards of private equity investing should understand the performance dispersion between top- and bottom-performing managers, a factor that heightens both the risk and opportunity. Since private equity investments are designed to be long-term investments where capital can be locked up for years, getting the manager selection wrong can be a vexing obstacle to success.
Memory inflation of past events amplifies one's emotions and behaviors. As I will discuss, I believe that distress from recent price inflation is causing many investors to overly fear that a similar situation will reoccur.
When Warren Buffett calls a book on investing “by far the best book about investing ever written,” it is common sense to concede the point.
To those who argue that value investing has gotten too hard in today’s momentum-chasing, passive-driven world, Scott McBride’s results are a bit of a conundrum.
One of the only things growing faster than progress in AI applications is speculation about AI’s effect on the economy. I don’t have all the answers, not by a long shot, but I do think we should expect great unevenness in adaptation, and that itself will alter our world.
The Federal Reserve's dual mandate is to maintain stable inflation and maximize employment. The Fed manages liquidity through its policy tools, but it's crucial to remember that the Fed is just one source of liquidity among several. In this quick insight, Dan Suzuki examines why tight Fed policy doesn't always equate to tight liquidity and looks into the historical data on Fed cuts.
Two major labor unions, the Dock Workers Union and the Boeing Machinists Union, have attempted to reach an agreement with their employers on a contract. The dock workers agreement proposes an average 8.5% per year wage increase over six years, and the Boeing Machinists Union’s proposal is for an average 7.5% wage increase over four years.
Asset managers in Europe and the US have spent 2024 winding down hundreds of ESG funds, as the investment strategy continues to bump up against regulatory headwinds.
As Steward Health Care Systems LLC’s network of hospitals was struggling, it stopped paying some of its vendors. One of those vendors was a supplier of bereavement boxes, the tiny cases used to transport the remains of newborns who don’t survive.
The sharp selloff in Treasuries abated on Thursday, with US bonds rallying alongside European peers, after three straight days of declines.
If you listen to tech industry leaders, business-sector forecasters, and much of the media, you may believe that recent advances in generative AI will soon bring extraordinary productivity benefits, revolutionizing life as we know it. Yet neither economic theory nor the data support such exuberant forecasts.
The U.S. election outcome is anyone’s guess, so let’s try to game out the winners and losers from the candidates’ major policy proposals.
It’s inevitable that the market dynamics that have delivered cheaper airfares, used cars and rents in the past year will eventually turn around. One high-profile reminder came from United Airlines’ earnings last week.
Treasury yields climbed for the third straight day amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates at a gradual pace and as traders fretted about the potential inflationary implications of the US presidential election.
Determining your client’s risk tolerance is a critical first step in constructing a tailored investment portfolio.
With third quarter GDP being reported next Wednesday – less than a week before election day – the US is still not in recession.
Tighter fiscal policy in Europe and China may hinder the economic response to easing monetary policy, with a resulting shift in investors' focus.
Global oil markets are working through many disruptions.
Thanks to a variety of structural advantages, including favorable demographic trends, we believe the U.S. remains the most attractive investment environment in the world.
The latest economic data reveals a resilient economy, led by strong retail sales and a surprising drop in jobless claims. Despite some weakness in manufacturing, industrial production, and housing, overall economic strength is reflected in the projected third-quarter real GDP growth, expected to come in at a robust 3%—largely driven by productivity gains. This productivity led rebound is very positive and this confirms that despite tighter monetary conditions, the real economy remains strong.
With polls showing Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in a close race, how do the key economic metrics favor each candidate?
Big Tech is going nuclear in its pursuit of artificial intelligence. Power-hungry datacenters are just one part of a broader freak-out over how the US grid will handle even bigger loads including electric vehicles and re-shored factories, plus withstand extreme weather, all while decarbonizing at a reasonable cost.
Energy policy decisions today will have long-lasting implications.
Even without new staff projections, the European Central Bank makes policy less restrictive and lowers its relevant rate to 3.25%.
It's important to stay informed regarding the latest updates to 529 college savings plans, for both current account holders and prospective savers. In recent years there have been significant changes, including The Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement (SECURE) 2.0 Act in December of 2022, which helps enhance the flexibility and benefits of 529 plans.
We take this opportunity to help you better understand implied volatility. Furthermore, we discuss other lesser-followed measures of implied volatility that help better assess whether implied VIX readings infer bullish or bearish sentiment.
The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) within financial institutions is no longer the future; it’s the present reality rapidly transforming the industry. In an extremely competitive landscape, AI offers banks new opportunities for efficiency and innovation.
Price action in some of the world’s most risk-sensitive assets is signaling concern that the Federal Reserve’s decision to begin lowering interest rates may have been premature — or unsustainable.
Benchmark Treasury yields may soon hit a key level on the back of rising inflation expectations and concerns over US fiscal spending, according to T. Rowe Price.
A dark cloud will be hanging over Boeing Co. when it releases its third-quarter earnings report Wednesday morning and Chief Executive Officer Kelly Ortberg, who has only been in the job since August, presides over his first quarterly conference call with analysts for the storied planemaker.
With the presidential election less than a month away, and the two candidates running head-to-head in the polls, there is certainly a lot of uncertainty in the markets.
While greed is necessary to build wealth, excessive greed often has far more terrible consequences when investing.
Housing prices matter to everyone, even if you aren’t trying to buy, sell, or rent a home. They are the key to inflation, which drives Fed policy and interest rates, which drive financial markets. We’re all part of this, like it or not. Today we’ll review what is happening.
One of most dangerous habits of a speculative crowd is the tendency to use unconditional averages and unconditional probabilities regardless of how extreme market conditions have become. This is like stepping into a house with two rooms, one with the temperature at 0 degrees and one at 140 degrees, and expecting a temperature of 70 either way.
In an age of accelerating progress in artificial intelligence, everyone is debating AI’s implications for the labor market or national security. There is far less discussion of what AI could or should mean for philanthropy.
The looming wealth transfer from Baby Boomers and the Silent Generation to younger generations is set to reshape the financial landscape in unprecedented ways. Estimated at $84 trillion, this transition is a huge financial event.
We expect bond yields to trend gradually lower—but it may be a bumpy ride. These seven strategies may help investors take advantage.
Sand. Salt. Iron. Copper. Oil. Lithium. These, not petabytes or algorithms or innovative ideas, are the building blocks of human life as we know it. At least that’s what Ed Conway, author of Material World, tells us.
Historically, investors have struggled to add meaningful alpha through security selection. A dynamic new credit scoring approach could change that.
Schwab Sector Views is our six- to 12-month outlook for stock sectors, which represent broad sectors of the economy. The Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR) combines a factor-based approach with a market and economic assessment to determine the ratings. For the basics on sectors, please see Stock Sectors: What Are They? How Are They Used?
Investors poured money into exchange-traded funds that buy emerging-market bonds last week as optimism around the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle fueled risk appetite.
As GMO celebrates its 30th anniversary managing emerging debt this year, we offer our comprehensive guide to emerging debt markets. Given the tumultuous recent events – a global pandemic, defaults, repricing of interest rates, relentless strength in the U.S. dollar – we’ll focus on the Why as a starting point. Then we’ll dive into the proliferating How, covering strategies and vehicles.
VettaFi provides an overview of the Marcellus and Utica shale.
Aligning a client’s values with their financial decisions is often touted as a best practice for financial advisors. It’s time to reexamine that premise.
History suggests Presidential elections are not nearly as important to the financial markets as the media plays them up to be, and a focus on fundamentals rather than political slogans has generally been beneficial. Historical asset class and sector performance shows virtually no consistent performance pattern under Democratic or Republican Presidents.
Investors piled money into exchange-traded funds that buy emerging-market bonds on Friday amid optimism that developing-nation debt will get a boost from a highly anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut this week.
“Fracking” is an expletive in environmental circles. Yet the spirit of shale is creeping into a business with transformational potential for the energy transition. Schlumberger NV, the industrial giant best known for sucking oil and gas from shale, the seabed (and other places besides), this week announced a breakthrough in direct lithium extraction, or DLE.
As AI's usage becomes increasingly widespread around the globe, energy consumption is soaring, along with a demand for additional power.
The U.S. economy may be heading into choppy waters, and investors might be wise to buckle up.
In this edition, Harold Evensky explores the challenges facing sustainable and active funds, the implications of the new DOL Fiduciary Rule, and the value of long-term performance projections. With candid observations and critical analysis--read on to gain perspective on navigating the complex world of investing, the importance of risk management, and the role of fiduciary advisors in securing your financial future.
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Director and Senior Investment Strategist Alex Cousley and ESG and Active Ownership Analyst Zoe Warganz discussed key takeaways from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
Will 2030 DC plans perform better at preparing U.S. workers for retirement?
“What happened in 1971?” It is one of the most important and debated questions in US economic history, and new research suggests that the answer may be lurking a few decades earlier — in 1948, to be precise.
Ethical Capital's Sloane Ortel marshals the data to counter the arguments against aggressively fighting climate change laid out in Larry Siegel's recent article.
The Jensen Quality Growth ETF is a high-conviction U.S. large-cap ETF with a growth tilt. The ETF’s investment approach is rooted in bottom-up fundamental analysis, focusing on quality companies that have demonstrated consistent performance and resilience over time.
The Biden administration is nearly finished divvying up $39 billion in grants under the Chips and Science Act, the landmark bipartisan legislation aimed at revitalizing the domestic semiconductor industry. The bigger test still lies ahead.
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Investment Strategist BeiChen Lin and ESG and Active Ownership Analyst Zoe Warganz discussed key takeaways from recent central bank meetings. They also provided an update on how U.S. small cap companies are performing during second-quarter earnings season.
A recent mid-year strategist pulse check from Natixis revealed where strategists believe the top opportunities exist across markets.
Today’s passive index investing requires active choices, as customization and innovations in index funds have resulted in new considerations for investors and the potential for greater control.
ESG
Sector Views: Monthly Stock Sector Outlook
Our outlook on the 11 S&P 500 equity sectors.
Santa’s Gift to the Stock Market
The odds are good that Santa won’t disappoint in 2024. Here’s the history of the past 99 Decembers, compared to the other months.
The US Can’t Manufacture Its Way to a Thriving Middle Class
he economic-policy consensus that prevails in the US is right about one thing.
ESG Is in Its Flop Era
As a concept, environmentally responsible investing is in its flop era. Right-wing backlash has turned “ESG” into a four-letter word in terrified corporate boardrooms.
Bitcoin’s Rise to $100,000 Signals Global Adoption Shift
Just a few short years (months?) ago, few would have believed it possible. But it happened: Bitcoin has traded above $100,000 for the first time ever.
BlackRock’s Big Bet on GIP Puts Fink’s Firm in Local Spotlight
In the port city of Duluth, Minnesota, local activists and Washington-based groups are coalescing to scrutinize — and possibly stall — a $6.2 billion acquisition of a power utility led by Global Infrastructure Partners.
A More Dynamic Playing Field for Equity Investors
In their 2025 outlook, Head of Americas Equities Marc Pinto and Head of EMEA and Asia Pacific Equities Lucas Klein say a changing macroeconomic backdrop could create new pockets of leadership in global equity markets.
In Sickness and in Wealth: A Closer Look at Executive Pay in Healthcare
Our research suggests that healthcare firms with sound pay practices may yield healthier returns.
Enron 2.0 — So Bad It’s Good?
It’s the anniversary of the first-ever controlled nuclear fission chain reaction. And it’s the day that Enron filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 2001.
Human Rights and Portfolio Risk: Why Investors Should Think Big
With human rights regulations expanding, investors need a broader approach to assessing risk and opportunity.
How to Create a Personalized Portfolio with Direct Indexing
When it comes to personalized investment strategies, multiple perspectives come into play: the client, the provider and the advisor.
Stocks Versus Bonds Dilemma Hits EM Traders as Trump Returns
Investors are scrambling to decide if Donald Trump’s impending return to the White House will sustain or derail the rally in emerging-market bonds witnessed under Joe Biden.
Beyond the Trump Trade: US Equity Investing in a New Policy Era
Policy changes could reshape return potential for companies across the US market. Here’s how investors can start thinking about the challenges ahead.
Financial Giant Charts a Differentiated Course in Active ETFs
VettaFi spoke recently with Nate Williams, a vice president and ETF specialist with Franklin Templeton, about the growth of its ETF business.
Trump Should Bring On a Great American Housing Boom
Most Americans, from both parties, say the government needs to increase the supply of affordable housing. For President-elect Donald Trump, that should offer a good opportunity to summon his instincts for development — and self-promotion — to get America building again. Call it the “Trump Building Boom.”
Green Energy Transition Opens ESG Opportunities in Bonds
The global transition to clean energy should open opportunities for fixed income investors in bond funds that focus on the ESG theme.
How Trump’s Second Term Could Impact Defense and Cybersecurity Spending
With President-elect Donald Trump set to assume office in January, the U.S. military and cybersecurity sectors could experience sweeping changes, creating opportunities for investors who recognize the long-term growth potential in defense and technology.
Resist Short-Term Temptations
Your fixed income strategy does not necessarily need to be adjusted based on every personnel or environmental change.
Modernizing Retirement Plans With Alternative Investments
Change is on the horizon for hard working Americans saving for their future, as 401(k) plans are now embracing private market investments. Savers may soon have access to opportunities previously reserved for institutional investors.
Quick View: A Win for Republicans Boosts US Stocks
Marc Pinto, Head of Americas Equities, and Lucas Klein, Head of EMEA and Asia Pacific Equities, say a surprisingly straightforward U.S. election could provide additional momentum to U.S. stocks through the end of 2024. But it remains to be seen how policy will impact future earnings—the real driver of long-term returns.
Greenwashing Focus Not Indictment of ESG Investing
Over the past few years, investors and regulators have increased scrutiny of greenwashing.
Empowering Change: The Role of Social Bonds in Promoting Gender Equality
Franklin Templeton Fixed Income believes investing in companies promoting gender equality and diversity can lead to inclusivity and strong financial returns. Despite the persistent gender gap, there's an increase in women in leadership roles, positively impacting financial performance, corporate governance and crisis resilience.
How Direct Indexing Can Help Offset Taxes on a Future Financial Windfall
With Direct Indexing, you can help your clients prepare for life-changing transactions and minimize capital gains taxes by selectively harvesting losses to offset those gains, and implementing tax-efficient trading strategies.
Lower Forward Returns Are A High Probability Event
I was emailed several times about a recent Morningstar article about J.P. Morgan’s warning of lower forward returns over the next decade. That was followed up by numerous emails about Goldman Sachs’ recent warnings of 3% annualized returns over the next decade.
As Climate Change Gets Hyperphysical, Investors Should Too
Integrating the physical toll of climate change helps investors spot key risks—and opportunities.
JPMorgan Sees Fear Receding in a $1.8 Trillion Loans Market
In a corner of the credit market that regulators last year characterized as a potential hot-bed of greenwashing, there are signs that bankers have been cracking down on corporate pitches.
Beyond ESG: Social Justice Investing
Join the experts at Adasina Social Capital for a free educational webcast that explores a social justice investing strategy that could boost your portfolio and help bring more equity into the world.
Seasonality: Buy Signal And Investing Outcomes
Seasonality has long influenced stock market trends, offering insights into predictable cycles of strength and weakness throughout the year. Yale Hirsch, the creator of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, is one of the most well-known contributors to studying these patterns.
Haven’t Worked at the Same Place for 10 Years? Join the Club
Been with the same employer for 10 years or more? That doesn’t exactly make you a rarity in the US, where 30.2% of employed wage and salary workers were in that situation as of January 2024, according to data released last month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. And while this percentage is down from a decade ago, it’s close to where things stood for the much of the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s.
Broken China
We don’t talk about China enough. I suspect this is for several reasons. First, because the country is so incomprehensibly big and populous. Second, it has been an economic miracle. Many Chinese enthusiasts just see a straight line projection of their growth. To the moon, Alice!
The Inflation Struggle Is Over. Just Don’t Tell Anyone
Even with inflation well and truly on the way down after the most aggressive interest-rate tightening in a generation, central banks are averse to declarations of victory. That the pace of price increases has been reined in without a major economic downturn is an accomplishment that warrants some trumpeting.
Why Manager Selection Is Critical for Private Equity Investing
Advisors and their clients who seek to take advantage of the potential rewards of private equity investing should understand the performance dispersion between top- and bottom-performing managers, a factor that heightens both the risk and opportunity. Since private equity investments are designed to be long-term investments where capital can be locked up for years, getting the manager selection wrong can be a vexing obstacle to success.
Memory Inflation Warps Bond Yields
Memory inflation of past events amplifies one's emotions and behaviors. As I will discuss, I believe that distress from recent price inflation is causing many investors to overly fear that a similar situation will reoccur.
The Intelligent Investor Is Still Worth Reading 75 Years Later
When Warren Buffett calls a book on investing “by far the best book about investing ever written,” it is common sense to concede the point.
How a $33 Billion Fund Manager Scored a Perfect Record Betting on Value
To those who argue that value investing has gotten too hard in today’s momentum-chasing, passive-driven world, Scott McBride’s results are a bit of a conundrum.
AI’s Effect on the US Economy Will Be Wildly Uneven
One of the only things growing faster than progress in AI applications is speculation about AI’s effect on the economy. I don’t have all the answers, not by a long shot, but I do think we should expect great unevenness in adaptation, and that itself will alter our world.
Navigating the Tight Policy, Loose Liquidity Paradox
The Federal Reserve's dual mandate is to maintain stable inflation and maximize employment. The Fed manages liquidity through its policy tools, but it's crucial to remember that the Fed is just one source of liquidity among several. In this quick insight, Dan Suzuki examines why tight Fed policy doesn't always equate to tight liquidity and looks into the historical data on Fed cuts.
Inflation Mathematics
Two major labor unions, the Dock Workers Union and the Boeing Machinists Union, have attempted to reach an agreement with their employers on a contract. The dock workers agreement proposes an average 8.5% per year wage increase over six years, and the Boeing Machinists Union’s proposal is for an average 7.5% wage increase over four years.
Hundreds of ESG Funds Are Being Wound Down, Morningstar Says
Asset managers in Europe and the US have spent 2024 winding down hundreds of ESG funds, as the investment strategy continues to bump up against regulatory headwinds.
US Hospitals Are Hanging by a Thread
As Steward Health Care Systems LLC’s network of hospitals was struggling, it stopped paying some of its vendors. One of those vendors was a supplier of bereavement boxes, the tiny cases used to transport the remains of newborns who don’t survive.
US Treasuries Rebound as Market Takes Break From Days of Losses
The sharp selloff in Treasuries abated on Thursday, with US bonds rallying alongside European peers, after three straight days of declines.
Don’t Believe the AI Hype
If you listen to tech industry leaders, business-sector forecasters, and much of the media, you may believe that recent advances in generative AI will soon bring extraordinary productivity benefits, revolutionizing life as we know it. Yet neither economic theory nor the data support such exuberant forecasts.
The Race to Fiscal and Monetary Stimulus
The U.S. election outcome is anyone’s guess, so let’s try to game out the winners and losers from the candidates’ major policy proposals.
Say Goodbye to Cheaper Rent and Airfares
It’s inevitable that the market dynamics that have delivered cheaper airfares, used cars and rents in the past year will eventually turn around. One high-profile reminder came from United Airlines’ earnings last week.
Treasuries Slide for Third Straight Day as Fed-Cut Bets Wane
Treasury yields climbed for the third straight day amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates at a gradual pace and as traders fretted about the potential inflationary implications of the US presidential election.
Your Clients Are Clueless About Their Risk Tolerance
Determining your client’s risk tolerance is a critical first step in constructing a tailored investment portfolio.
GDP Growth Still Solid
With third quarter GDP being reported next Wednesday – less than a week before election day – the US is still not in recession.
Pivot to Fiscal Policy
Tighter fiscal policy in Europe and China may hinder the economic response to easing monetary policy, with a resulting shift in investors' focus.
The Middle East, and Oil
Global oil markets are working through many disruptions.
Equity Outlook: Invest in the Best, Avoid the Rest
Thanks to a variety of structural advantages, including favorable demographic trends, we believe the U.S. remains the most attractive investment environment in the world.
Strong Retail Sales and Rising Yields Signal Resilience
The latest economic data reveals a resilient economy, led by strong retail sales and a surprising drop in jobless claims. Despite some weakness in manufacturing, industrial production, and housing, overall economic strength is reflected in the projected third-quarter real GDP growth, expected to come in at a robust 3%—largely driven by productivity gains. This productivity led rebound is very positive and this confirms that despite tighter monetary conditions, the real economy remains strong.
Can Economic Indicators Or Betting Markets Predict Election Results?
With polls showing Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in a close race, how do the key economic metrics favor each candidate?
AI's Power Drain Demands a Novel Solution: Us
Big Tech is going nuclear in its pursuit of artificial intelligence. Power-hungry datacenters are just one part of a broader freak-out over how the US grid will handle even bigger loads including electric vehicles and re-shored factories, plus withstand extreme weather, all while decarbonizing at a reasonable cost.
Tough Choices for Energy Policy
Energy policy decisions today will have long-lasting implications.
ECB: Growth Concerns
Even without new staff projections, the European Central Bank makes policy less restrictive and lowers its relevant rate to 3.25%.
Is College 529 Financial Planning Really That Simple?
It's important to stay informed regarding the latest updates to 529 college savings plans, for both current account holders and prospective savers. In recent years there have been significant changes, including The Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement (SECURE) 2.0 Act in December of 2022, which helps enhance the flexibility and benefits of 529 plans.
The VIX and Market Climb: Should We Care?
We take this opportunity to help you better understand implied volatility. Furthermore, we discuss other lesser-followed measures of implied volatility that help better assess whether implied VIX readings infer bullish or bearish sentiment.
Ensuring Balance: AI Implementation Impacts Employees and Customers for Financial Institutions
The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) within financial institutions is no longer the future; it’s the present reality rapidly transforming the industry. In an extremely competitive landscape, AI offers banks new opportunities for efficiency and innovation.
Fears of False Start for Fed Leave Emerging Markets in Limbo
Price action in some of the world’s most risk-sensitive assets is signaling concern that the Federal Reserve’s decision to begin lowering interest rates may have been premature — or unsustainable.
Treasury 10-Year Yields Will Test 5% in Six Months, T. Rowe Says
Benchmark Treasury yields may soon hit a key level on the back of rising inflation expectations and concerns over US fiscal spending, according to T. Rowe Price.
Boeing's Union Finally Has a Labor Deal That Makes Sense
A dark cloud will be hanging over Boeing Co. when it releases its third-quarter earnings report Wednesday morning and Chief Executive Officer Kelly Ortberg, who has only been in the job since August, presides over his first quarterly conference call with analysts for the storied planemaker.
Alternatives: An Ace in the Hole During Election Years?
With the presidential election less than a month away, and the two candidates running head-to-head in the polls, there is certainly a lot of uncertainty in the markets.
Greed And How To Lose 100% Of Your Money
While greed is necessary to build wealth, excessive greed often has far more terrible consequences when investing.
Frozen Homes
Housing prices matter to everyone, even if you aren’t trying to buy, sell, or rent a home. They are the key to inflation, which drives Fed policy and interest rates, which drive financial markets. We’re all part of this, like it or not. Today we’ll review what is happening.
Subsets and Sensibility
One of most dangerous habits of a speculative crowd is the tendency to use unconditional averages and unconditional probabilities regardless of how extreme market conditions have become. This is like stepping into a house with two rooms, one with the temperature at 0 degrees and one at 140 degrees, and expecting a temperature of 70 either way.
AI Will Transform Philanthropy, Too
In an age of accelerating progress in artificial intelligence, everyone is debating AI’s implications for the labor market or national security. There is far less discussion of what AI could or should mean for philanthropy.
Navigating the $84 Trillion Wealth Transfer: Shaping the Future of Financial Planning
The looming wealth transfer from Baby Boomers and the Silent Generation to younger generations is set to reshape the financial landscape in unprecedented ways. Estimated at $84 trillion, this transition is a huge financial event.
Fixed-Income Outlook: Strategies for a Controlled Descent
We expect bond yields to trend gradually lower—but it may be a bumpy ride. These seven strategies may help investors take advantage.
Living in a Material World: The Surprisingly Gripping Tale of Six Natural Resources
Sand. Salt. Iron. Copper. Oil. Lithium. These, not petabytes or algorithms or innovative ideas, are the building blocks of human life as we know it. At least that’s what Ed Conway, author of Material World, tells us.
Core Score: How a New Approach to Credit Investing May Harness More Alpha
Historically, investors have struggled to add meaningful alpha through security selection. A dynamic new credit scoring approach could change that.
Sector Views: Monthly Stock Sector Outlook
Schwab Sector Views is our six- to 12-month outlook for stock sectors, which represent broad sectors of the economy. The Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR) combines a factor-based approach with a market and economic assessment to determine the ratings. For the basics on sectors, please see Stock Sectors: What Are They? How Are They Used?
Rate Cut Kickoff Sparks Rush to Emerging Market Bond ETFs
Investors poured money into exchange-traded funds that buy emerging-market bonds last week as optimism around the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle fueled risk appetite.
The What-Why-When-How Guide to Owning Emerging Debt
As GMO celebrates its 30th anniversary managing emerging debt this year, we offer our comprehensive guide to emerging debt markets. Given the tumultuous recent events – a global pandemic, defaults, repricing of interest rates, relentless strength in the U.S. dollar – we’ll focus on the Why as a starting point. Then we’ll dive into the proliferating How, covering strategies and vehicles.
Basin Basics: Appalachia Offers More Than Gas
VettaFi provides an overview of the Marcellus and Utica shale.
Aligning Values With Money Isn’t Your Job
Aligning a client’s values with their financial decisions is often touted as a best practice for financial advisors. It’s time to reexamine that premise.
Fade the Election
History suggests Presidential elections are not nearly as important to the financial markets as the media plays them up to be, and a focus on fundamentals rather than political slogans has generally been beneficial. Historical asset class and sector performance shows virtually no consistent performance pattern under Democratic or Republican Presidents.
Risk Traders Buy Emerging-Market Bond ETFs Ahead of Fed’s Cut
Investors piled money into exchange-traded funds that buy emerging-market bonds on Friday amid optimism that developing-nation debt will get a boost from a highly anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut this week.
The Spirit of Fracking Comes to US Lithium Mining
“Fracking” is an expletive in environmental circles. Yet the spirit of shale is creeping into a business with transformational potential for the energy transition. Schlumberger NV, the industrial giant best known for sucking oil and gas from shale, the seabed (and other places besides), this week announced a breakthrough in direct lithium extraction, or DLE.
Is AI Slowing Down the Energy Transition?
As AI's usage becomes increasingly widespread around the globe, energy consumption is soaring, along with a demand for additional power.
The Yield Curve Inversion Just Ended, but Economic Risks Remain
The U.S. economy may be heading into choppy waters, and investors might be wise to buckle up.
Navigating the Investment Landscape: Insights and Warnings
In this edition, Harold Evensky explores the challenges facing sustainable and active funds, the implications of the new DOL Fiduciary Rule, and the value of long-term performance projections. With candid observations and critical analysis--read on to gain perspective on navigating the complex world of investing, the importance of risk management, and the role of fiduciary advisors in securing your financial future.
Key Highlights From Q2 Earnings Season Around the Globe
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Director and Senior Investment Strategist Alex Cousley and ESG and Active Ownership Analyst Zoe Warganz discussed key takeaways from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
8 Ways DC Plans Are Likely to Change by 2030
Will 2030 DC plans perform better at preparing U.S. workers for retirement?
When Did the Great Stagnation Actually Begin?
“What happened in 1971?” It is one of the most important and debated questions in US economic history, and new research suggests that the answer may be lurking a few decades earlier — in 1948, to be precise.
A Rebuttal to an Energy Transition “Realist”
Ethical Capital's Sloane Ortel marshals the data to counter the arguments against aggressively fighting climate change laid out in Larry Siegel's recent article.
Jensen Investment Management Launches the Jensen Quality Growth ETF
The Jensen Quality Growth ETF is a high-conviction U.S. large-cap ETF with a growth tilt. The ETF’s investment approach is rooted in bottom-up fundamental analysis, focusing on quality companies that have demonstrated consistent performance and resilience over time.
With US Chips Act Money Mostly Divvied Up, the Real Test Begins
The Biden administration is nearly finished divvying up $39 billion in grants under the Chips and Science Act, the landmark bipartisan legislation aimed at revitalizing the domestic semiconductor industry. The bigger test still lies ahead.
Fed Signals Rate Cuts Could Begin in September
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Investment Strategist BeiChen Lin and ESG and Active Ownership Analyst Zoe Warganz discussed key takeaways from recent central bank meetings. They also provided an update on how U.S. small cap companies are performing during second-quarter earnings season.
Where Strategists See Market Opportunities in Second Half
A recent mid-year strategist pulse check from Natixis revealed where strategists believe the top opportunities exist across markets.
Index Investing as an Active Decision: Implications for Equity Investors
Today’s passive index investing requires active choices, as customization and innovations in index funds have resulted in new considerations for investors and the potential for greater control.