Builder confidence inched up in April thanks to a recent dip in mortgage rates however economic uncertainty stemming from tariff concerns kept sentiment negative for a 12th straight month. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) rose to 40 this month, up 1 point from March. The latest reading was above the 38 forecast.

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Bitcoin's closing price rose nearly 10% from last week's low. BTC is down ~11% year to date and ~21% below its record high from January 2025.

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Industrial production fell 0.3% in March, the first monthly drop since November and more than the expected 0.2% decline. Compared to one year ago, industrial production is up 1.3%.

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The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for March showed a surge in consumer spending last month, with headline sales rising 1.4%. This is the largest monthly increase since January 2023 and higher than the expected 1.3% growth.

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Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.

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Gas prices fell for the first time in four weeks, experiencing its largest weekly drop in over ten months. As of April 14th, the price of regular and premium gas were each down 7 cents from the previous week.

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Travel on all roads and streets declined in February. The 12-month moving average was down 0.11% month-over-month but was up 0.95% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was down 0.17% MoM and down 0.95% YoY.

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Manufacturing activity contracted for a second consecutive month in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing April survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions rose 11.9 points but remained below zero at -8.1. The latest reading was better than the forecast of -12.8.

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Four of the nine indexes on our emerging markets watch list have posted gains through April 11, 2025. Chile's IPSA is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 11.2%. Brazil's IBOVESPA is in second with a year to date gain of 6.3% while Mexico's BMV IPC is in third with a year to date gain of 3.5%.

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Consumer confidence took another hit this month, primarily due to escalating worries about trade wars, inflation, and the labor market. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index plummeted to 50.8 in April, its second-lowest reading on record, surpassed only by June 2022.

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Wholesale inflation unexpectedly fell in March, dropping for the first time in 17 months. The producer price index for final demand was down 0.4% month-over-month after a 0.1% increase in February. This was lower than the expected 0.2% growth.

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The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) release for March puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 2.39%. The latest reading keeps inflation below the 3.73% average since the end of the Second World War. Additionally, for a second straight month, inflation sits below the 10-year moving average which is at 2.95%.

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This series has been updated to include the March release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $52,322, down 5.9% from over 50 years ago.

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Inflation cooled for a second straight month in March, falling to its lowest level in over four years. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index was at 2.4% year-over-year, lower than the expected 2.5% growth.

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The 20th century Baby Boom was one of the most powerful demographic events in the history of the United States. We've created a series of charts to show seven age cohorts of the employed population from 1948 to the present.

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Today, one in three of the 65-69 cohort, one in five of the 70-74 cohort, and one in ten of the 75+ cohort are in the labor force.

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The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is a simple computation: You take the civilian labor force (people aged 16 and over employed or seeking employment) and divide it by the civilian non-institutional population (those 16 and over not in the military and or committed to an institution). As of March, the labor force participation rate is at 62.5%, up from 62.4% the previous month.

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Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for March. The unemployment rate inched up to 4.2%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 228,000.

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The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped for a third straight month, falling to 97.4 in March. Notably, the net percent of small business owners expecting higher sales volume fell for a third consecutive month after surging from recession levels after the election.

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March's employment report showed that 82.6% of total employed workers were full-time (35+ hours) and 17.4% of total employed workers were part-time (<35 hours).

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Multiple jobholders account for 5.6% of civilian employment, the highest level in over 20 years.

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What does the ratio of unemployment claims to the civilian labor force tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?

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The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of March 28th, the index was at 12.038, down 1.225 from the previous week, with 3 of the 6 components in expansion territory.

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This chart series features an overlay of four major secular bear markets: the Crash of 1929, the Oil Embargo of 1973, the Tech Bubble, and the Financial Crisis. The numbers are through the March 31, 2025 close.

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There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In March, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 228,000, while the unemployment rate inched up to 4.2%.

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Light vehicle sales spiked to their highest level in nearly four years in March while heavy truck sales dropped to its lowest level since July 2020.

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The latest employment report showed that 228,000 jobs were added in March, exceeding the expected 137,000 addition. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate unexpectedly inched up to 4.2%.

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The S&P 500 real monthly averages of daily closes reached a new all-time high in December 2024 but has retreated from it over the past few months. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical bull and bear market trends in market performance.

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Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $19,313 for an annualized real return of 13.24%.

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Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the March 2025 close.

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With the Q4 GDP third estimate and the March close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 209.6%, up slightly from the previous quarter.

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Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. This analysis focuses on the P/E10 ratio, key indicator of market valuation, and its correlation with inflation and the 10-year Treasury yield.

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The U.S. trade deficit narrowed as exports surged and imports inched lower. In February, the trade deficit shrank 6.1% to -$122.7B, the first decline in four months.

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The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its March Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 50.8—below the forecast of 53.0. This marks the ninth consecutive month of expansion but the slowest growth since June 2024.

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The March U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 54.4, just above the 54.3 forecast. The reading marks the 26th consecutive month of expansion and the fastest growth of the year so far.

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Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.

• The Crestmont Research P/E ratio
• The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor
• The Q ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost
• The relationship of the S&P composite price to a regression trendline

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Based on the March S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E of 38.2 is 152% above its arithmetic mean, 175% above its geometric mean, and is in the 99th percentile of this 14-plus-decade series.

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Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 26.1 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 34.7.

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The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. The latest Q-ratio is at 1.85, down from 1.97 in February. This is the lowest level in eight months.

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At the end of March, the inflation-adjusted S&P Composite Index was 160% above its long-term trend, down from 178% in February. This is the lowest variance in seven months.

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The ADP employment report revealed that 155,000 nonfarm private jobs were added in March, almost twice as much as the 84,000 from February. The latest reading was higher than the expected 118,000 addition.

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The 10-year Treasury yield has experienced dramatic fluctuations, ranging from a peak of 15.68% in October 1981, during the height of the Volcker era, to a historic low of 0.55% in August 2020, amidst the economic uncertainty of the pandemic. As of March 31, 2025, the weekly average stood at 4.33%.

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February's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed a larger-than-anticipated drop in job openings, falling to 7.568 million from January's revised 7.762 million. The latest reading was below the forecast of 7.690 million. Additionally, layoffs and hiring saw slight increases, while quits declined.

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The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 49.0 in March, indicating contraction in U.S. manufacturing after marginal expansion in February. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of 49.5.

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U.S. manufacturing growth stalled in March amid economic and tariff uncertainty. The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI remained in expansion territory for a third straight month in March at 50.2 signaling a marginal improvement in operating conditions. The latest reading was higher than the 49.8 forecast.

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Valid until the market close on April 30, 2025

Consumer attitudes are measured by two monthly surveys: the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). In March, the MCSI fell to 57.0, its lowest level since November 2022. Meanwhile, the CCI dropped to 92.9, is lowest level since February 2021.

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The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for March. The general business activity index came in at -16.3, its lowest level since July. This marks an 8 point decline from the previous month and the second straight monthly decline.

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The BEA's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for February showed that core inflation continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 2.8%. The February core Consumer Price Index (CPI) release was higher, at 3.1%. The Fed is on record as using core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.

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The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business Barometer) rose for a third straight month in March, reaching its highest level since November 2023. The index increased to 47.6 from 45.5 in February, surpassing the 45.5forecast. The latest reading marks the 16th consecutive month the index has contracted.

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With the release of February's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.83% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.50% when we adjust for inflation, the largest monthly gain since January 2024. The year-over-year metrics are 3.63% nominal and 1.06% real.

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Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in February and is up 3.7% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.1% month-over-month and up 1.1% year-over-year.

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The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report showed inflation remained elevated at the start of 2025. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, rose 2.8% year-over-year in February and 0.4% from December. Both readings were higher than expected.

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Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q4 GDP second estimate, three of the four components made positive contributions.

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The third estimate for Q4 GDP came in at 2.45%, a deceleration from 3.07% for the Q3 third estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 1.82%, a slowdown from 2.22% for the Q3 headline number.

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The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey revealed regional activity decreased modestly in March, with the composite index at -2. This is slightly above February's -5 reading and is tied for the highest reading since August 2023. Future expectations stayed positive, though they dipped from 14 in February to 10 in March.

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The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index increased more than expected in February, rebounding from the previous month's record low. The index came in at 72.0, a 2.0% rise from the previous month but a 3.6% drop from one year ago. Pending home sales were expected to rise 0.9% month-over-month.

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Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.45% in Q4 2024, according to the third estimate. The latest estimate was higher than the 2.3% forecast but lower than the Q3 final estimate of 3.1%.

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The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.18 in February from -0.08 in January. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from January, and two categories made positive contributions in February.

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New orders for manufactured durable goods unexpectedly rose to $289.29B in February. This represents a 0.9% increase from the previous month and a 3.4% rise from one year ago. The latest reading was better than the projected 1.1% decline.

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New home sales rebounded slightly in February but still came in just below the forecast. According to the Census Bureau, new home sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 676,000 in February, below the 682,000 forecast. This represents a 1.8% increase from January's upwardly revised rate of 664,000 and a 5.1% rise from one year ago.

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The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® sank to its lowest level in over four years in March. The index fell to 92.9 this month from February's upwardly revised 100.1, marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline, the longest streak since 2012

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Fifth district manufacturing activity slowed in Mach, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index fell to -4 this month from 6 in February, the largest monthly decline in over a year. This month's reading was worse than the forecast of 8.

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Home prices continued to trend upwards in December as the benchmark national index rose for a 24th consecutive month to a 19th straight record high. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.6% increase MoM, and a 4.1% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to 0.3% and YoY fell to -0.5%.

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The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) rose to 436.5 in January. U.S. house prices were up 0.2% from the previous month, as expected, and up 4.8% from one year ago. This marks the 29th consecutive monthly increase for the index.

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When we think of the U.S. government's finances, we often focus on the massive debt. But what about the assets? What does Uncle Sam actually own, and which asset is the largest?

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Existing home sales rebounded in February with their largest monthly increase in a year. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales rose 4.2% from January, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.26 million units in February.

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The Federal Reserve concluded its second meeting of the year by keeping the federal funds rate (FFR) at 4.25-4.50%, as expected.

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As of Q4 2024, the latest Fed balance sheet indicates that household net worth has risen 186% since reaching its 2009 low. However, when adjusted for inflation, household net worth has actually increased by only 93% since the 2009 trough.

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In the week ending March 1st, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 221,000. This represents a decrease of 21,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was lower than the 234,000 forecast.

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Household debt increased by $93 billion (0.52%) in Q4 2024, reaching $18.04 trillion. While all debt categories saw quarterly gains, the overall rise was primarily driven by credit card debt.

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The Census Bureau released its latest quarterly report for Q4 2024 showing the latest homeownership rate is at 65.7%, up from Q3 but practically unchanged from a year ago.

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Earlier this week we posted an update on the median household income for the 50 states and DC which includes annual data from 1984 to 2023. Let's now look at the actual purchasing power of those median incomes. For this adjustment, we're using the "C2ER Cost of Living Index" produced by C2ER, the Council for Community and Economic Research.

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The median US income in 2023 was $80,610, up from $22,420 in 1984 — a 260% rise over the 39-year time frame. However, if we adjust for inflation chained in 2023 dollars, the 1984 median is $55,828, and the increase drops to 37%.

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What is the relationship between education and household income? The Census Bureau’s 2023 annual survey data provides valuable insights into this question. The median household income for individuals aged 25 and older was $82,010, but how does this figure vary based on educational attainment?

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The median household is the statistical center of the Middle Class. Let's take a closer look at the Census Bureau's latest annual household income data with a focus on middle class income. In this update, we'll focus on the growing gap between the median (middle) and mean (average) household incomes across the complete time frame of the Census Bureau's annual reporting from 1867 to 2023.

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Our commentary on household income distribution offers some fascinating insights into average U.S. household incomes, but misses the implications of age for income. In this update, we examine household income with a focus on age bracket.

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A few months ago, the Census Bureau released its annual report on household income data for 2023. During 2023, the median (middle) average household income rose 8.0% to $80,730. Let's take a closer look at the quintile averages, which dates from 1967, along with the statistics for the top 5%.

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In the week ending January 4th, initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level since February 2024. Initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 201,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading was better than the 214,000 forecast.

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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) increased slightly in November. The index rose 0.3% from the previous month to 99.7 after eight consecutive monthly declines.

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As 2023 comes to an end, let’s revisit the top 10 most-read AP charts of the year.

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AP Charts and Analysis will be offline this week due to the holidays. We will resume publishing economic and market analysis and publish missed news on 12/26.

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The latest Underlying Inflation Gauge full data set for September is 2.9%, down 0.1% from last month, while the prices-only measure is 2.2%, down 0.2% from last month. Current Headline CPI is now 3.7% and Core CPI is 4.2%.

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Five out of the 12 Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia. The September average of the five districts is -6.5, down from the previous month.

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We've updated our periodic look at the Philly Fed ADS Index which includes real GDP (Q2 2023 third estimate) and initial jobless claims through 9/23.

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The Census Bureau has posted its advance report on new orders for durable goods for August. This series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation. Let's review durable goods data with those two adjustments.

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The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index is based on 85 economic indicators drawn from four broad categories of data. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from July. All four categories made negative contributions in August.

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The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development published their August findings for new residential housing starts and building permits. Over the long haul, the two series offer a compelling study of trends in residential real estate. Here is an overlay of the two series since the 1959 inception of the starts and permits data, which was tracked beginning a year later.

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The latest monthly employment report showed 187,000 nonfarm jobs were added in August. An industry breakdown of that number shows a gain of 151,000 service-providing jobs and a gain of 36,000 goods-producing jobs.

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Here's the top 10 most popular AP Charts of 2022.

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Today's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts the WLI at 145.6, up from the previous week's figure. The WLIg is at -10.3, up from last week and the WLI YoY is at -4.92%, down slightly from last week.

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The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) monthly data on volume sales is several weeks old when it released. The latest numbers, through mid-November, are now available.

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The team at HSH.com, features a periodic update entitled "The Salary You Must Earn to Buy a Home in the 50 Largest Metro Areas". The key question is:

"How much salary do you need to earn in order to afford the principal and interest payments on a median-priced home in your metro area?"

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Next week we are taking a hiatus from regularly scheduled updates and will be publishing a series of articles based on the Census Bureau's 2020 Income and Poverty Report. Stay Tuned!

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In yesterday morning's ADP employment report we got the September estimate of 568K nonfarm private employment jobs gained, an increase over August's revised 340K. The popular spin on this indicator is as a preview to the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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Let's take a look at major sectors in the ETF world since February 21, 2020. All but two sectors, hotels and airlines, have recovered since then. Retail has bounced back the fastest, while hotels and airlines are still lagging. Individuals are returning to travel rapidly as more vaccines are administered.

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The S&P 500 ETFs tracked include State Street Global Advisors’ SPDR (SPY), iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV), and Vanguard’s S&P 500 ETF (VOO).

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As a result of the COVID-19 virus and its effects on the market, here's a short analysis of major ETF market sectors and the S&P 500 since February 21.

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We are having some software issues and as a result, all economic news is delayed slightly. We will back-publish all missed updates once this is resolved. Thank you!

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Millennials make up the largest percentage of our population today, yet have seen some of the lowest labor force participation growth and highest unemployment out of all age groups since the turn of the century. This has larger implications when coupled with slow wage growth, high home prices, and mounting student debt.

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In July of 2015, CNN Money featured an article with the optimistic and intriguing title "More American teens are getting jobs. That's good for everyone." After reading the article, we revised one of our monthly charts on Labor Force Participation to include the age 16-19 cohort -- one we elsewhere combine with the 20-24 year-olds. We've updated this article to include the latest employment data.

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Cover retail mutual funds and ETFs in client IRAs, Roth IRAs, and taxable brokerage accounts to deliver reliable, sustainable income streams your clients can't outlive.

The big economic number tomorrow will be the Q2 Third Estimate for GDP. The last two quarters are behind us with their real annualized rates of 2.9% in Q4 2017 and 2.3% in Q1. What do economists see in their collective crystal ball for Q2 Third Estimate? Let's take a look at the latest GDP forecasts from the latest Wall Street Journal survey of economists conducted earlier this month.

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This is the second in a multi-part series where we examine pundits' opinions and predictions on the latest topics.

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The bitcoin and cryptocurrency craze has everyone talking. Here's what some of the big names in the industry are saying.

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Many of our readers have been experiencing 404 errors on dshort pages. These pages have not disappeared, they are merely being edited and as a result of our current process, it shows as a broken page. Please be sure to check back within a few days to see the newest update.

We are working on a new system that will prevent these errors.

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With the Republican tax bill looming, we've updated this article to include the latest figures and estimates for federal debt and taxes.

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The LMCI is a relatively recent indicator developed by Federal Reserve economists to assess changes in the labor market conditions. As of August 3, 2017, updates of the labor market conditions index (LMCI) have been discontinuedThe LMCI is derived from a dynamic factor model that extracts the primary common variation from 19 labor market indicators.

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An ETF sponsor is looking for 30 advisors to participate in an online focus group to be hosted on APViewpoint. The purpose of this focus group is to gather advisors’ observations on the ETF marketplace. Click for more info.

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If you're attending this week's Morningstar Investment Conference in Chicago, come visit us at booth #360. Meet members of our team, including CEO/Editor in Chief Bob Huebscher, National Account Manager Becky Allen and dshort's Research Director Jill Mislinski.

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Many reports on the cost of education and affordability over the last decade have focused on the rapid growth of educational debt. Here we examine student aid, costs of undergraduate education, and enrollment over time. We've used data from the College Board's annual Trends in Higher Education publications. We've updated this report with the latest data.

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College Tuition and Fees constitute one of the biggest threats to our economic outlook. Here is a chart of data from the relevant Consumer Price Index sub-component reaching back to 1978, the earliest year Uncle Sam provides a breakout for College Tuition and Fees. As an interesting sidebar, we've thrown in the increase in the cost of purchasing a new car as well as the more substantial increase for the broader category of medical care, both of which pale in comparison.

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We continue our real estate research with a study on metropolitan affordability in the rental and mortgage markets. Once again, we tap into Zillow Group’s wealth of data and use a data set that includes mortgage affordability, rental affordability, and price-to-income ratios for the five most populous US cities with comparison to the national median.

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According to the Census Bureau, 84% of U.S. citizens live in Metropolitan Statistical Areas - defined as a region with at least one urbanized area of population 50,000 or more. Here we look at home values in the top five metro areas over a 20 year period using data from Zillow Group. We focus on Zillow Sales prices and the Zillow Home Value Index, a house price index that uses Zillow data.

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Note from dshort: Since the middle of the last century, there have been nine bear markets in the S&P 500 using the 20% selloff of the "bear-market" benchmark. There have been two additional corrections that came within a hair's breadth of the -20% qualification. Here are snapshots of those official bears and initial recoveries. Rather than scrolling down, you can click on a chart for an enlarged version and a slide-show of the series.

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Note from dshort: We've updated this commentary in the wake of the Census Bureau's release last month of the 2015 annual household income data from the Current Population Survey.

One of our favorite discussions on APViewpoint, which addressed "The Sad State of Happiness", included an indirect reference to a popular 2010 academic study by psychologist Daniel Kahneman and economist Angus Deaton. Their topic was the correlation between annual household income and day-to-day contentment. They analyzed more than 450,000 total responses to a Gallup weekly survey of households across the 50 states and DC. The survey was conducted in 2009.

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With the US presidential election about five weeks away, the popular press has feasted on the campaign events and survey results, with the primary focus on the Trump spectacle. The fundamental question remains: How did The Don succeed in winning the Republican Party nomination in the first place? And how could he remain in contention in the wake of his bizarre campaign rhetoric? A provocative new report from Sentier Research gives us insight into what might be the key factor in the Trump phenomenon: A secular decline in the financial well-being of white working class males and what we can infer as the resulting anger directed at the political powers that be.

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Visitors to Advisor Perspectives will recognize the S&P Composite Stock Price Index as a regular feature in our long-term charts of market and economic happenings. We're referring to the data series made popular in recent years by Yale Professor Robert Shiller, not to be confused with the S&P Composite 1500, an index that combines the S&P 500, the S&P Mid Cap 400, and the S&P Small Cap 600. Here's a an overlay of the Dow and the S&P Composite from May of 1896, the month the Dow Jones Industrial Average index of 12 stocks was established.

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With the 2016 Rio Olympics in the news and on many minds, we decided to investigate whether particular indicators were a predictor of performance.

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According to this system, the market is now tradable and a signal to enter and continue all long trading. The OEXA200R is at 84% and all three secondary indicators are positive.

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Often conversations about home buying end up in discussions on the high cost of homes today and their affordability – or lack thereof. We decided to take a look at the long-term trends in home prices in comparison to income and found that incomes have been stagnant since the early 1970s, while home prices have risen dramatically in comparison.

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The big economic news on Friday was the Department of Labor's Employment Report for March. The mainstream press focused on two numbers: the 215K new jobs and the 5% unemployment rate. Over the next few days we'll dig in a bit deeper to look at some of the underlying employment demographics, which in many ways give a greater understanding of employment conditions. But the much more significant economic news on Friday was the Federal Reserve's noon release of the disturbingly negative annual benchmark revisions to Industrial Production.

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What is the single best indicator of the American Dream? Many would point to household income growth. The Census Bureau has now published some selected annual household income data in a new report: "Income and Poverty in the United States: 2014". Last year the median (middle) household income was $53,657 — a 0.13% year-over-year increase that shrinks to -1.48% when adjusted for inflation. Let's put the new release into a larger historical context.

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This is the second installment of a two-part article on P/E ratios by Ed Easterling. Ed's books, Unexpected Returns and Probable Outcomes, have our unqualified endorsement for anyone trying to understand the complex and often puzzling relationship between the economy and the market.

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We're delighted to welcome Ed Easterling with this first installment of a two-part article on P/E ratios. Ed's books, Unexpected Returns and Probable Outcomes, have our unqualified endorsement for anyone trying to understand the complex and often puzzling relationship between the economy and the market.

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