Netflix Inc. shares soared to a record high on Wednesday after the streaming giant reported its biggest quarterly subscriber gain in history, buoyed by its first major live sporting events and the return of Squid Game.
Six of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through January 21, 2025. France's CAC 40 is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 5.10%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 5.08% while England's FTSE 100 is in third with a year to date gain of 3.49%.
Travel on all roads and streets increased in November. The 12-month moving average was up 0.03% month-over-month and was up 1.04% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was down 0.04% MoM and up 0.43% YoY.
Outlooks for higher education and healthcare are the weakest while transportation and essential utilities are the strongest. Resiliency to withstand an economic downturn is strong for all sectors.
There will be more humanoid robots than people by 2040, Elon Musk recently bragged.
Nominal retail sales in December were up 0.45% month-over-month (MoM) and up 3.92% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 0.06% MoM and up 1.00% YoY.
Builder confidence inched up in January to its highest level in 9 months on hopes for economic growth and an improved regulatory environment. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) rose to 47 this month, up one point from December. The latest reading came was above the forecast of 45.
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for December revealed headline sales were up 0.4% last month. Additionally, November retail sales were revised higher to 0.8%. The latest reading was lower than the expected 0.6% monthly growth in consumer spending.
The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index jumped to its highest level since April 2021 as manufacturing activity increased overall. In January, the index rose to 44.3 from -10.9 in December, the largest monthly increase since June 2020. The latest reading was much higher than the forecast of -5.0.
This series has been updated to include the December release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $51,595, down 6.7% from over 50 years ago.
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
Manufacturing activity declined in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing January survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions was fell nearly 15 points to -12.6. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of 2.7.
Inflation ticked up in December while core growth slowed. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index rose to 2.89% year-over-year, right in line with economist expectations. Additionally, core CPI came in lower than expected, slowing to 3.2% year-over-year.
Nothing is more fundamental to the current health of the economy than jobs creation and income growth.
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for December. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 256,000.
The headline number for the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index surged to its highest level in over six years last month, coming in at 105.1. December's reading marks the 2nd consecutive month the index has been above the historical average of 97.9 and was higher than the forecast of 101.3.
Wholesale inflation increased less than expected last month. The producer price index for final demand was up 0.2% month-over-month (s.a.), below the 0.4% forecast. On an annual basis, headline PPI accelerated from 3.0% in November to 3.3% in December, below the 3.5% forecast.
Our commentary on household income distribution offers some fascinating insights into average U.S. household incomes, but misses the implications of age for income. In this update, we examine household income with a focus on age bracket.
Let's take a close look at December's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. The latest data shows that 82.7% of total employed workers are full-time (35+ hours) and 17.3% of total employed workers are part-time (<35 hours).
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of those indicators, nonfarm employment. December saw a 256,000 increase in total nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment ticked down to 4.1%.
This chart series features an overlay of four major secular bear markets: the Crash of 1929, the Oil Embargo of 1973, the Tech Bubble, and the Financial Crisis. The numbers are through the December 31, 2024 close.
The latest job openings and labor turnover summary (JOLTS) report showed that job openings unexpectedly rose in November, while hiring and quits slowed. Vacancies increased to 8.098 million in November from October's upwardly revised level of 7.839 million. The latest reading was more than the expected 7.730 million vacancies and is the highest level of job openings since May.
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has released its December services purchasing managers' index (PMI). The headline composite index is at 54.1, better than the forecast of 53.5. The latest reading keeps the index in expansion territory for the sixth straight month.
The December U.S. services purchasing managers' index (PMI) conducted by S&P Global came in at 56.8, the highest level since March 2022. The latest reading came in below the forecast of 58.5 but keeps the index in expansion territory for the 23rd straight month.
The U.S. international trade in goods and services is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. In November, the trade deficit expanded 6.2% to -$78.19B. The latest reading was better than the forecast of -$78.30B.
In a recent discussion on TheRealInvestmentShow, Bob Farrell and his 10 investment rules were discussed, which elicited several email questions asking, “Who is Bob Farrell, and where are these rules?”.
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 28.8 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 37.7.
Although the general public might not pay much attention to such price swings, they still leave a serious impact on global trade and investment.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 49.3 in December, higher than November's 48.4 reading, but keeping the index in contraction territory for the 9th straight month. The manufacturing sector has now contracted for 25 of the past 26 months. The latest reading was better than the forecast of 48.2.
The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ fell to 49.4 in December from 49.7 in November, marking the sixth consecutive month of worsening conditions in the manufacturing sector. The latest reading was above the forecasted reading of 48.3.
Fixed income is top of mind as investors look to a new interest rate regime. Sylvia Yeh dives into the outlook for 2025.
The clouds that hung over the financial-technology industry in 2024 appear to be clearing as interest-rate cuts, recoveries in fintech stocks and promises of a looser regulatory environment in the second Trump administration paint a more promising outlook for startups.
Home prices continued to trend upwards in October as the benchmark national index rose for the 21st consecutive month to a new all-time high. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.3% increase MoM, and a 3.6% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to -0.1% and YoY fell to -1.5%.
The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index (Chicago Business Barometer) fell to its lowest level in 7 months in December. The index dropped to 36.9 from 40.2 in November, marking the third consecutive decline. The latest reading was worse than the 42.7 forecast and keeps the index in contraction territory for a thirteenth straight month.
It’s that time of year again, when pundits are forecasting next year’s stock market performance. I believe investors are being gaslighted more than usual this year because the basic underlying assumptions are optimistic and unlikely.
Annuities can provide a guaranteed lifetime income stream in retirement, no matter how long you live. They thrive under high interest rate environments and are currently offering the highest payouts seen in years.
America’s national debt would have horrified Ronald Reagan.
For 2025, the financial markets will be entering a new chapter in the ever-evolving policy story. Indeed, not only will the U.S. economy be operating under a new political and attendant fiscal backdrop, but it will also be in the midst of a different monetary policy setting—rate cuts, not the after-effects of rate hikes.
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® pulled back in December. The index decreased to 104.7 this month from November's upwardly revised 112.8. This month's reading was much lower compared to the 112.9 forecasted.
A rude surprise could be in store for the millions of Americans who get health coverage through the Affordable Care Act. If Congress doesn’t act next year, enhanced premium subsidies will expire by December, causing enrollees’ payments to increase by more than 75% on average.
AI has the potential to elevate industries by blending mechanical precision with human creativity. The key lies in balance: harnessing its capabilities while preserving the uniquely human touch that remains irreplaceable.
This is the first part of a series of Bloomberg Opinion columns exploring the risks related to the US’s rapidly expanding debt and budget deficit.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in November and is up 4.6% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.2% month-over-month and up 2.1% year-over-year.
Surprises most often are hiding in plain sight. Being aware and prepared with a plan for the unexpected are keys to achieving goals.
The U.S. economy is experiencing a remarkable period of economic stabilization and growth
This has been a year of market highs, puzzling signals, and a few head-scratching moments.
The clouds hanging over Boeing’s operations finally appear to be clearing.
What is there to say with Bitcoin at $100,000 for those of us who thought $10,000 looked nuts.
China’s economic ascent over the past four decades has been a remarkable story of growth, driven by several factors.
As the office buildings market faces headwinds, investors look to alternative sectors.
We believe municipal bonds currently offer a compelling balance of risk and reward for investors in higher tax brackets.
How to unlock value in a complex market landscape.
We are all familiar with this SEC-required warning that “past performance does not predict future performance.”
A couple of weeks ago, we wrote about how the deficit had come back into focus for the U.S. financial markets.
The $1.8 trillion federal budget deficit in the fiscal year that ended in September was the third biggest ever in dollar terms, trailing only the pandemic deficits of the 2020 and 2021 fiscal years. As a share of gross domestic product, a better gauge for historical comparisons, it was, at 6.4%, the biggest ever outside of a large war or global crisis.
The WisdomTree BioRevolution Fund (WDNA) is showing signs of recovery, reflecting renewed investor confidence in biotechnology innovation.
Big banks have been warning their investors about the competition they face from private credit, electronic market makers and others for some time.
Credit spreads are critical to understanding market sentiment and predicting potential stock market downturns.
There has been a lot of talk about (in)efficiencies in government spending, both before and since the election. Much of the conversation has been driven by Elon Musk, who will co-head the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE, not an actual government agency). Musk has boasted he could find $2 trillion to cut from the federal budget.
With the re-election of President Donald Trump, the worries about tariffs and pro-business policies sparked concerns of “Trumpflation.” Inflation has been a top concern for policymakers, businesses, and everyday consumers, especially following the sharp price increases experienced over the past few years.
The post-election stock market is already giving investors a wild ride. Big individual stock selloffs, massive rallies, and a dizzying array of market narratives built on Wall Street’s best attempts to read President-elect Donald Trump’s mind.
We take an early look at how a new policy platform could factor into the US deficit and debt.
Our model, How America Spends, has been tracking the purchasing behavior of 135 million U.S. households since 2014. This model is not a black box – it is a data file representing the spending of 135 million households on goods and services since 2014.
With President-elect Donald Trump set to assume office in January, the U.S. military and cybersecurity sectors could experience sweeping changes, creating opportunities for investors who recognize the long-term growth potential in defense and technology.
The 10 largest stocks in the S&P 500 returned a staggering 104.6% from January 2023 through June 2024—more than double the broader index return
This isn’t the same China that greeted Donald Trump after his first win in 2016. The economy, once widely believed on a course to knock the US off its perch as the preeminent commercial power, has since revealed some acute vulnerabilities that don’t seem to be going away. And the president-elect seems to be gearing up for a trade war he no longer needs to fight.
Healthcare companies often grab headlines for their exciting drug innovations. But we think the focus should be on business fundamentals.
Recent data, early results, and a relatively firm economy point toward possible improvement in Q3 retail earnings as Walmart, Target, and other big-box stores prepare to report.
The housing market inderwent huge transformations in recent decades with the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis & the COVID-19 pandemic.
Mike Wirth became the king of Big Oil on Oct. 7, 2020. That was the day the chief executive officer of Chevron Corp. elbowed out archival Exxon Mobil Corp. to become America’s largest oil corporation by market value. It was the zenith of a honeymoon between Wall Street and Wirth.
Most of the time the yield on long-term bonds exceeds that on short-term bonds, in order to compensate for the greater risk attached to long-term debt. But until recently the yield curve was inverted, with short-term rates exceeding long-term rates. This happens when investors expect interest rates to decline in the future.
Here’s something that would have seemed pretty much inconceivable two years ago: According to Zillow, home prices have now risen more in New York City and its environs since the beginning of 2020 than in metropolitan Austin, Texas.
If we had to choose one indicator to watch over the next few months, it would be weekly initial jobless claims.
While the primary focus for the financial markets has been on the continued resilient U.S. economy and what the current Fed rate cut cycle will ultimately look like, there has been another topic that has been making the rounds in the bond arena: the budget deficit.
When Covid-19 brought the US economy to a standstill in the spring of 2020, America’s top executives called for a “national conversation” about the need for workers to return to work, warning of an “economic catastrophe” if they didn’t.
Franklin Templeton Fixed Income believes investing in companies promoting gender equality and diversity can lead to inclusivity and strong financial returns. Despite the persistent gender gap, there's an increase in women in leadership roles, positively impacting financial performance, corporate governance and crisis resilience.
Legendary investors Paul Tudor Jones and Stan Druckenmiller are short bonds. You might want to carefully consider the data before you follow their lead.
Bill Bernstein digs into a book that follows the complicated history of Elon Musk's chaotic acquisition of Twitter and its subsequent transformation into X.
Thematic portfolios that tap into big global trends offer exciting opportunities for equity investors. But the devil is in the detail.
Here we are, another calendar quarter down with one more to go in 2024, and investors have yet to see a “hard landing” emerge.
State and municipal budgets are adjusting to life after pandemic interventions.
The greatest dangers to a portfolio during an election year are either external events or the investor’s own actions. An election year makes staying the course more important than ever.
The titans of finance who congregated in Riyadh this week for Saudi Arabia’s annual Davos-style confab were mostly upbeat on the prospects for the US economy, but concerned about more sluggish growth in Europe.
Apple Inc.’s iPhone exports from India jumped by a third in the six months through September, underscoring its push to expand manufacturing in the country and reduce dependence on China.
An independent central bank supports better economic and market outcomes.
Although Americans say they don’t like paying the current level of prices for goods and services that resulted from the worst bout of inflation in 40 years, they can take comfort from the fact that those prices, while admittedly not coming down in most cases, are actually becoming more affordable.
The U.S. election outcome is anyone’s guess, so let’s try to game out the winners and losers from the candidates’ major policy proposals.
The robotics space has underperformed broader tech recently, leading to investment opportunities as the market underappreciates major tailwinds.
With the backdrop of U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) headlines in addition to the shifting narratives of the election season, we have been focusing on what we are calling the Great Normalization as overall economic trends in the U.S. are getting back to normal.
While tariffs have been utilized heavily in the past, both their usage and rates have fallen considerably over the past half century as countries have engaged in different stages of trade negotiations.
COVID-19: Coronavirus Coverage
Netflix Shares Soar to Record After Huge Gain in Subscribers
Netflix Inc. shares soared to a record high on Wednesday after the streaming giant reported its biggest quarterly subscriber gain in history, buoyed by its first major live sporting events and the return of Squid Game.
World Markets Watchlist: January 21, 2025
Six of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through January 21, 2025. France's CAC 40 is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 5.10%. Germany's DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 5.08% while England's FTSE 100 is in third with a year to date gain of 3.49%.
America's Driving Habits: November 2024
Travel on all roads and streets increased in November. The 12-month moving average was up 0.03% month-over-month and was up 1.04% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was down 0.04% MoM and up 0.43% YoY.
2025 Municipal Bond Sector Outlook: Stability and Resiliency
Outlooks for higher education and healthcare are the weakest while transportation and essential utilities are the strongest. Resiliency to withstand an economic downturn is strong for all sectors.
Elon Musk’s Robotopia Will Bloom in Aging Europe
There will be more humanoid robots than people by 2040, Elon Musk recently bragged.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Sales Up 0.1% in December
Nominal retail sales in December were up 0.45% month-over-month (MoM) and up 3.92% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 0.06% MoM and up 1.00% YoY.
NAHB Housing Market Index: Builder Confidence Inches to 9-Month High in January
Builder confidence inched up in January to its highest level in 9 months on hopes for economic growth and an improved regulatory environment. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) rose to 47 this month, up one point from December. The latest reading came was above the forecast of 45.
Retail Sales Up 0.4% in December, Lower Than Expected
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for December revealed headline sales were up 0.4% last month. Additionally, November retail sales were revised higher to 0.8%. The latest reading was lower than the expected 0.6% monthly growth in consumer spending.
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Activity Jumps to Highest Level Since April 2021
The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index jumped to its highest level since April 2021 as manufacturing activity increased overall. In January, the index rose to 44.3 from -10.9 in December, the largest monthly increase since June 2020. The latest reading was much higher than the forecast of -5.0.
Real Middle Class Wages as of December 2024
This series has been updated to include the December release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $51,595, down 6.7% from over 50 years ago.
Inside the Consumer Price Index: December 2024
Let's do some analysis of the Consumer Price Index, the best-known measure of inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides all expenditures into eight categories and assigns a relative size to each. The pie chart illustrates the components of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers, the CPI-U.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Activity Declines in January
Manufacturing activity declined in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing January survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions was fell nearly 15 points to -12.6. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of 2.7.
Consumer Price Index: Inflation Ticks Up to 2.9% in December
Inflation ticked up in December while core growth slowed. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index rose to 2.89% year-over-year, right in line with economist expectations. Additionally, core CPI came in lower than expected, slowing to 3.2% year-over-year.
Expect Innovation Led American Exceptionalism to Continue
Nothing is more fundamental to the current health of the economy than jobs creation and income growth.
U.S. Workforce Recovery Analysis: December 2024
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for December. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 256,000.
NFIB Small Business Survey: Optimism Surges to Six-Year High
The headline number for the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index surged to its highest level in over six years last month, coming in at 105.1. December's reading marks the 2nd consecutive month the index has been above the historical average of 97.9 and was higher than the forecast of 101.3.
Producer Price Index: Wholesale Inflation Increased Less Than Expected in December
Wholesale inflation increased less than expected last month. The producer price index for final demand was up 0.2% month-over-month (s.a.), below the 0.4% forecast. On an annual basis, headline PPI accelerated from 3.0% in November to 3.3% in December, below the 3.5% forecast.
Median Household Incomes by Age Bracket: 1967-2023
Our commentary on household income distribution offers some fascinating insights into average U.S. household incomes, but misses the implications of age for income. In this update, we examine household income with a focus on age bracket.
A Closer Look at Full-time and Part-time Employment: December 2024
Let's take a close look at December's employment report numbers on Full and Part-Time Employment. The latest data shows that 82.7% of total employed workers are full-time (35+ hours) and 17.3% of total employed workers are part-time (<35 hours).
The Big Four Recession Indicators: December Employment
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of those indicators, nonfarm employment. December saw a 256,000 increase in total nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment ticked down to 4.1%.
The Four Bad Bear Recoveries: Where Is Today's Market?
This chart series features an overlay of four major secular bear markets: the Crash of 1929, the Oil Embargo of 1973, the Tech Bubble, and the Financial Crisis. The numbers are through the December 31, 2024 close.
Job Openings Unexpectedly Rise in November
The latest job openings and labor turnover summary (JOLTS) report showed that job openings unexpectedly rose in November, while hiring and quits slowed. Vacancies increased to 8.098 million in November from October's upwardly revised level of 7.839 million. The latest reading was more than the expected 7.730 million vacancies and is the highest level of job openings since May.
ISM Services PMI Expanded for Sixth Straight Month in December
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has released its December services purchasing managers' index (PMI). The headline composite index is at 54.1, better than the forecast of 53.5. The latest reading keeps the index in expansion territory for the sixth straight month.
S&P Global Services PMI: Reaches 33-Month High in December
The December U.S. services purchasing managers' index (PMI) conducted by S&P Global came in at 56.8, the highest level since March 2022. The latest reading came in below the forecast of 58.5 but keeps the index in expansion territory for the 23rd straight month.
Trade Balance Jumps 6.2% in November
The U.S. international trade in goods and services is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. In November, the trade deficit expanded 6.2% to -$78.19B. The latest reading was better than the forecast of -$78.30B.
The Rules Of Bob Farrell – An Updated Illustrated Guide
In a recent discussion on TheRealInvestmentShow, Bob Farrell and his 10 investment rules were discussed, which elicited several email questions asking, “Who is Bob Farrell, and where are these rules?”.
P/E10 and Market Valuation: December 2024
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 28.8 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 37.7.
How Climate Volatility Is Redefining Commodity Markets
Although the general public might not pay much attention to such price swings, they still leave a serious impact on global trade and investment.
ISM Manufacturing Index Contracts for 9th Straight Month
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 49.3 in December, higher than November's 48.4 reading, but keeping the index in contraction territory for the 9th straight month. The manufacturing sector has now contracted for 25 of the past 26 months. The latest reading was better than the forecast of 48.2.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Tough End to 2024
The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ fell to 49.4 in December from 49.7 in November, marking the sixth consecutive month of worsening conditions in the manufacturing sector. The latest reading was above the forecasted reading of 48.3.
Muni Bonds in a New Interest Rate Regime
Fixed income is top of mind as investors look to a new interest rate regime. Sylvia Yeh dives into the outlook for 2025.
Regulation, Deals and Crypto: Fintech Themes to Watch in 2025
The clouds that hung over the financial-technology industry in 2024 appear to be clearing as interest-rate cuts, recoveries in fintech stocks and promises of a looser regulatory environment in the second Trump administration paint a more promising outlook for startups.
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Hits 17th Consecutive All-Time High in October
Home prices continued to trend upwards in October as the benchmark national index rose for the 21st consecutive month to a new all-time high. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.3% increase MoM, and a 3.6% increase YoY. After adjusting for inflation, the MoM fell to -0.1% and YoY fell to -1.5%.
Chicago PMI Falls to 7-Month Low in December
The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index (Chicago Business Barometer) fell to its lowest level in 7 months in December. The index dropped to 36.9 from 40.2 in November, marking the third consecutive decline. The latest reading was worse than the 42.7 forecast and keeps the index in contraction territory for a thirteenth straight month.
A Look Behind the Gaslight Curtain: Optimistic Assumptions Underlie 2025 Market Forecasts
It’s that time of year again, when pundits are forecasting next year’s stock market performance. I believe investors are being gaslighted more than usual this year because the basic underlying assumptions are optimistic and unlikely.
The Popular Rise of Lifetime Income on Annuities
Annuities can provide a guaranteed lifetime income stream in retirement, no matter how long you live. They thrive under high interest rate environments and are currently offering the highest payouts seen in years.
In American Debt We Trust — But for How Long?
America’s national debt would have horrified Ronald Reagan.
2025 Economic & Market Outlook: Turning the Page
For 2025, the financial markets will be entering a new chapter in the ever-evolving policy story. Indeed, not only will the U.S. economy be operating under a new political and attendant fiscal backdrop, but it will also be in the midst of a different monetary policy setting—rate cuts, not the after-effects of rate hikes.
Consumer Confidence Pulls Back in December
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® pulled back in December. The index decreased to 104.7 this month from November's upwardly revised 112.8. This month's reading was much lower compared to the 112.9 forecasted.
Obamacare Is More Popular and Costlier Than Ever
A rude surprise could be in store for the millions of Americans who get health coverage through the Affordable Care Act. If Congress doesn’t act next year, enhanced premium subsidies will expire by December, causing enrollees’ payments to increase by more than 75% on average.
Embracing AI Can Help RIAs Transform Their Practices
AI has the potential to elevate industries by blending mechanical precision with human creativity. The key lies in balance: harnessing its capabilities while preserving the uniquely human touch that remains irreplaceable.
America Needs to Break Its Debt Addiction — Crisis or Not
This is the first part of a series of Bloomberg Opinion columns exploring the risks related to the US’s rapidly expanding debt and budget deficit.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income Up 0.2% in November
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in November and is up 4.6% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.2% month-over-month and up 2.1% year-over-year.
Top Five Surprises for 2025
Surprises most often are hiding in plain sight. Being aware and prepared with a plan for the unexpected are keys to achieving goals.
The Beat Goes On
The U.S. economy is experiencing a remarkable period of economic stabilization and growth
Five Charts for 2025
This has been a year of market highs, puzzling signals, and a few head-scratching moments.
Boeing Resumes Production as the Airline Industry Prepares for a Record-Breaking 2025
The clouds hanging over Boeing’s operations finally appear to be clearing.
Does Bitcoin at $100,000 Signal a Last Laugh for HODLers?
What is there to say with Bitcoin at $100,000 for those of us who thought $10,000 looked nuts.
Watching China’s Economic Miracle (and Relevance) Fade Before Our Eyes
China’s economic ascent over the past four decades has been a remarkable story of growth, driven by several factors.
The Shifting Landscape of Commercial Real Estate
As the office buildings market faces headwinds, investors look to alternative sectors.
2025 Municipal Bond Outlook
We believe municipal bonds currently offer a compelling balance of risk and reward for investors in higher tax brackets.
Turning the Corner? Commercial Real Estate Themes for 2025
How to unlock value in a complex market landscape.
The Greatest Scourge in Factorland: Revaluation Alpha = Fake Alpha (JPM Series)
We are all familiar with this SEC-required warning that “past performance does not predict future performance.”
When Will the “Bill” Come Due?
A couple of weeks ago, we wrote about how the deficit had come back into focus for the U.S. financial markets.
Health-Care Spending Is Sinking the Federal Budget
The $1.8 trillion federal budget deficit in the fiscal year that ended in September was the third biggest ever in dollar terms, trailing only the pandemic deficits of the 2020 and 2021 fiscal years. As a share of gross domestic product, a better gauge for historical comparisons, it was, at 6.4%, the biggest ever outside of a large war or global crisis.
Opportunities in Biotechnology Will Follow Advancements in the Science
The WisdomTree BioRevolution Fund (WDNA) is showing signs of recovery, reflecting renewed investor confidence in biotechnology innovation.
Investment Banks Will Lose Billions of Dollars to Private Rivals
Big banks have been warning their investors about the competition they face from private credit, electronic market makers and others for some time.
Credit Spreads: The Markets Early Warning Indicators
Credit spreads are critical to understanding market sentiment and predicting potential stock market downturns.
Looking For Efficiencies in Government Spending: Look Elsewhere
There has been a lot of talk about (in)efficiencies in government spending, both before and since the election. Much of the conversation has been driven by Elon Musk, who will co-head the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE, not an actual government agency). Musk has boasted he could find $2 trillion to cut from the federal budget.
“Trumpflation” Risks Likely Overstated
With the re-election of President Donald Trump, the worries about tariffs and pro-business policies sparked concerns of “Trumpflation.” Inflation has been a top concern for policymakers, businesses, and everyday consumers, especially following the sharp price increases experienced over the past few years.
Trump Is Making the 60/40 Portfolio Great Again
The post-election stock market is already giving investors a wild ride. Big individual stock selloffs, massive rallies, and a dizzying array of market narratives built on Wall Street’s best attempts to read President-elect Donald Trump’s mind.
Fiscal Futures: Gauging the Potential Impact of Post-Election US Policy
We take an early look at how a new policy platform could factor into the US deficit and debt.
How America Spends: A Macroeconomic Inflation Model
Our model, How America Spends, has been tracking the purchasing behavior of 135 million U.S. households since 2014. This model is not a black box – it is a data file representing the spending of 135 million households on goods and services since 2014.
How Trump’s Second Term Could Impact Defense and Cybersecurity Spending
With President-elect Donald Trump set to assume office in January, the U.S. military and cybersecurity sectors could experience sweeping changes, creating opportunities for investors who recognize the long-term growth potential in defense and technology.
What Happens After the Top 10 Stocks Outperform?
The 10 largest stocks in the S&P 500 returned a staggering 104.6% from January 2023 through June 2024—more than double the broader index return
China Trade War Is One Trump Doesn’t Have to Fight
This isn’t the same China that greeted Donald Trump after his first win in 2016. The economy, once widely believed on a course to knock the US off its perch as the preeminent commercial power, has since revealed some acute vulnerabilities that don’t seem to be going away. And the president-elect seems to be gearing up for a trade war he no longer needs to fight.
Why Healthcare Investors Shouldn’t Bank on Drug Pipelines
Healthcare companies often grab headlines for their exciting drug innovations. But we think the focus should be on business fundamentals.
Optimism Improves Ahead of Q3 Retail Earnings
Recent data, early results, and a relatively firm economy point toward possible improvement in Q3 retail earnings as Walmart, Target, and other big-box stores prepare to report.
The U.S. Housing Market: Challenges and Solutions
The housing market inderwent huge transformations in recent decades with the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis & the COVID-19 pandemic.
Can Chevron Win Back Wall Street in 2025?
Mike Wirth became the king of Big Oil on Oct. 7, 2020. That was the day the chief executive officer of Chevron Corp. elbowed out archival Exxon Mobil Corp. to become America’s largest oil corporation by market value. It was the zenith of a honeymoon between Wall Street and Wirth.
Behind the Scenes of Uninverting the Yield Curve
Most of the time the yield on long-term bonds exceeds that on short-term bonds, in order to compensate for the greater risk attached to long-term debt. But until recently the yield curve was inverted, with short-term rates exceeding long-term rates. This happens when investors expect interest rates to decline in the future.
Austin Exposes New York City’s Broken Housing Market
Here’s something that would have seemed pretty much inconceivable two years ago: According to Zillow, home prices have now risen more in New York City and its environs since the beginning of 2020 than in metropolitan Austin, Texas.
Q4 Global Market Outlook 2024: U.S. Soft Landing: Is It Possible?
If we had to choose one indicator to watch over the next few months, it would be weekly initial jobless claims.
A Closer Look at the Budget Deficit
While the primary focus for the financial markets has been on the continued resilient U.S. economy and what the current Fed rate cut cycle will ultimately look like, there has been another topic that has been making the rounds in the bond arena: the budget deficit.
Boeing Shows Why Squeezing Workers Is Reckless
When Covid-19 brought the US economy to a standstill in the spring of 2020, America’s top executives called for a “national conversation” about the need for workers to return to work, warning of an “economic catastrophe” if they didn’t.
Empowering Change: The Role of Social Bonds in Promoting Gender Equality
Franklin Templeton Fixed Income believes investing in companies promoting gender equality and diversity can lead to inclusivity and strong financial returns. Despite the persistent gender gap, there's an increase in women in leadership roles, positively impacting financial performance, corporate governance and crisis resilience.
Can Paul Tudor Jones and Stanley Druckenmiller Be Wrong?
Legendary investors Paul Tudor Jones and Stan Druckenmiller are short bonds. You might want to carefully consider the data before you follow their lead.
What Makes Elon Tweet
Bill Bernstein digs into a book that follows the complicated history of Elon Musk's chaotic acquisition of Twitter and its subsequent transformation into X.
Why Are Investors Drawn to Thematic Portfolios?
Thematic portfolios that tap into big global trends offer exciting opportunities for equity investors. But the devil is in the detail.
2024 Economic & Market Outlook: The Final Stretch
Here we are, another calendar quarter down with one more to go in 2024, and investors have yet to see a “hard landing” emerge.
Local Finances, Challenging Choices
State and municipal budgets are adjusting to life after pandemic interventions.
Electing to Stay Invested This November
The greatest dangers to a portfolio during an election year are either external events or the investor’s own actions. An election year makes staying the course more important than ever.
Wall Street CEOs Tout US Resilience Against Concerns Over Europe
The titans of finance who congregated in Riyadh this week for Saudi Arabia’s annual Davos-style confab were mostly upbeat on the prospects for the US economy, but concerned about more sluggish growth in Europe.
Apple Ships $6 Billion of iPhones From India in Big China Shift
Apple Inc.’s iPhone exports from India jumped by a third in the six months through September, underscoring its push to expand manufacturing in the country and reduce dependence on China.
The Election And The Fed
An independent central bank supports better economic and market outcomes.
The Porterhouse at Weis Points to Inflation’s Demise
Although Americans say they don’t like paying the current level of prices for goods and services that resulted from the worst bout of inflation in 40 years, they can take comfort from the fact that those prices, while admittedly not coming down in most cases, are actually becoming more affordable.
The Race to Fiscal and Monetary Stimulus
The U.S. election outcome is anyone’s guess, so let’s try to game out the winners and losers from the candidates’ major policy proposals.
2024 Recap for Pure-Play Robotics Ecosystem & Outlook Ahead
The robotics space has underperformed broader tech recently, leading to investment opportunities as the market underappreciates major tailwinds.
The Great Normalization: Post-Pandemic Economic Trends in the United States
With the backdrop of U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) headlines in addition to the shifting narratives of the election season, we have been focusing on what we are calling the Great Normalization as overall economic trends in the U.S. are getting back to normal.
Trade and Tariffs: The Impact on Consumers
While tariffs have been utilized heavily in the past, both their usage and rates have fallen considerably over the past half century as countries have engaged in different stages of trade negotiations.