Inflation

Israel-Iran hostilities brought a short-term market focus on oil. Longer term, artificial intelligence (AI) electricity needs could create a power shortage, as well as opportunities and risks for investors.

Proposed regulatory changes involving the Supplementary Leverage Ratio may have benefits for both large banks and the Treasury market.

Equity markets continued to march higher in June, seemingly unfazed by heightened Middle East tensions (which were short-lived) and the looming July 8 deadline for the administration’s pause on reciprocal tariffs.

We began the year optimistic that an environment of slowing growth, disinflation and easier monetary policy would be favorable for fixed income markets. Now at midyear, we maintain that view, while acknowledging that policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks may likely result in continued volatility.

It has been over six months since the FOMC has made a change to the Fed Funds rate. While the debate continues as to when the next cut will be, market consensus (per Bloomberg calculations) is currently for a 25 basis point cut in September.

An economy cannot subsist on services alone.

On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Global Chief Investment Strategist Paul Eitelman explored key drivers behind the strong performance in markets. He also provided an update on a proposed U.S. tax measure.

The US economy is important, but it’s not the only one in a global approach.

With the first half of 2025 in the books, it’s been a very interesting six months — emphasis on “V” because the S&P 500 saw a nice V-shaped formation following the April sell-off. As markets always reveal, interesting times call for interesting ETF trends to follow.

In recent months, markets have whipsawed amid changes in trade policy, geopolitical shocks, concerns about fiscal sustainability, challenges to central bank independence, technological advancements, and earnings surprises in both directions. Despite this, stocks and bonds in much of the world are close to where they began the year.

When the Fed increased the M2 money supply by over 40% during the COVID crisis, our instinct was that the implications would extend far beyond a temporary boost to the U.S. stock market and higher inflation. That intuition is proving accurate. We’re now seeing the long-term ripple effects play out in real time across multiple asset classes and global markets.

For good reasons, many investors have a love-hate relationship with commodity investments. Operationally, the annoying K-1 form complicates tax filing, although thankfully the industry has started to launch “no K-1” funds.

This year’s formidable challenges have clarified strategic lessons for equity investors to apply in the coming months

The marathon Senate budget vote took center stage early and stocks slipped from yesterday's all-time highs. Job openings, Powell, and manufacturing data are top of mind.

India has seen foreigners leaving the market for most of 2025. For this and other reasons, India has become one of the bigger shorts in our Systematic Global Macro Strategy’s equity portfolio

Markets notched fresh all-time highs on Friday with a positive tone and geopolitical outlook. Swift retreat in oil back to pre-strike levels, combined with friendlier NATO negotiations and de-escalated fighting in Iran restored risk appetite.

Only a subset of subsidies will be rolled back.

A potential conflict with Iran has consistently appeared in our monthly Market Risk Monitor for over two years. Now that risk has materialized. Our equity portfolio managers assess the implications for global markets.

Readers of a certain age will no doubt recall President Ronald Reagan launching one of the most ambitious military buildups in American history.

Growth is expected to decelerate, but not come crashing down.

Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.

This article will help you evaluate whether it’s still a good time for clients to gain Bitcoin exposure—even after its recent all-time high—and how to do so responsibly. You’ll learn how Bitcoin fits into a diversified portfolio, what leading financial institutions forecast for its future, and why spot Bitcoin ETFs offer a regulated, practical entry point for long-term investors.

The United States’ tariff announcement on April 2, 2025, created significant market volatility, as the tariffs were perceived as higher, broader, and more punitive than expected, and the implementation sooner.

Market uncertainty needs a tailor-made approach to fixed income for advisors to construct the ideal portfolio for their clients. There’s an easier solution that encompasses an active management approach, various income sources, and low cost. It’s the Vanguard Multi-Sector Income Bond ETF (VGMS).

The Fed’s credibility rests not on never being wrong, but on being adaptive and forward-looking. Inflation has cooled, wage growth has moderated, and economic momentum is slowing. Now is the time for the Fed to focus not on headline fears, but on real-time data.

Until recently, commercial real estate appeared poised for a long-awaited rebound. However, 2025 has revealed a new reality: Uncertainty has become structural.

Until that US government debt-crisis moment arrives, which we will get through, things will muddle along.

Last week's economic data presented a mixed picture, emerging against the backdrop of a record market rally and rising inflation.

Index futures inched upward premarket as the headline May PCE data landed in line with expectations, though the core data and annual figures were up slightly.

Money Metals Midweek Memo host Mike Maharrey isn’t buying the recent bearish turn in gold forecasts from Wall Street.

Today’s investment landscape, shaped by persistently above-target inflation, structurally higher debt and deficits, and reduced global dollar recycling into US financial markets, has contributed to elevated market volatility alongside historically high policy uncertainty.

The Fed left rates unchanged and signaled it’s still in wait-and-see mode, even as inflation risks and policy uncertainty persist.

Former Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida explains where yields may be headed, as well as positioning considerations for the long-run by charting the relationship between r* and term premium.

Jeff Chang, CFA, President of Vest, a pioneer of Target Outcome Investments with some $50 billion under management, examines how geopolitical events like U.S. airstrikes can create ripple effects across global markets, and why the actual impact often depends more on context than headlines suggest.

Target-date fund glide paths can be important tools for retirement planning. Advisors should focus on assumptions, transparency, and outcomes to ensure they align with participants' needs.

Tensions in the Middle East and their effect on oil prices have dominated the recent news headlines—and for good reason. A rise in oil prices, especially if it lasts, can push up inflation and slow down economic growth.

The US Census Bureau’s May retail sales report came in weaker than expected, with the headline measure — total nominal sales — down 0.9% on the month. It’s the largest drop in nearly two years and reflects broad-based softness across categories like autos, gas stations, and restaurants.

The old Wall Street quip about economists having “predicted nine of the last five recessions” has never felt more painfully relevant.

While both valuation and technical factors suggest to us that the dollar may continue to weaken in the near-term, we would caution investors against reading too much concerning the US’ long-term economic stability into further dollar weakness.

Inflation's trend has been favorable this year, but a growing conflict in Iran—combined with already-imposed tariffs—might put upward pressure in prices later this year.

Newsflow and misperceptions can obscure the drivers of profit growth—especially during a volatile year like 2025.