Join the experts at SS&C ALPS Advisors for a product spotlight on their dynamic commodities strategy that could help your portfolio better navigate inflation and uncertainty.
For the second meeting in a row, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to keep rates unchanged, leaving the Fed Funds trading range at 4.25%–4.50%.
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Director and Global Head of Solutions Strategy, Van Luu, discussed the latest rate decisions from key central banks. He also talked about fiscal reform in Germany and reviewed recent U.S. market performance.
The yield on the 10-year note ended March 21, 2025 at 4.25%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.94% and the 30-year note ended at 4.59%.
US Treasuries consolidated gains in a choppy trading session with markets remaining confident that policymakers at the Federal Reserve are still on a path toward lower interest rates.
The Federal Reserve’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged was right — but easy to misinterpret.
The US stock market is on edge. The S&P 500’s recent 10% correction has investors worried, though a highly uncertain policy environment and an unusually top-heavy market obscure just what is spooking stocks.
he central bank made a technical move on the balance sheet, reducing the pace of permitted runoff in its Treasury holdings from $25 to $5 billion per month.
The Fed held the federal funds rate steady and signaled two rate cuts this year, despite expecting inflation to remain elevated.
With only eight trading days left in the first quarter, M&A announcements are set to come in at their lowest level since Q2 2020.
Despite the increase in policy uncertainty, the Federal Reserve held its forecast steady at the March FOMC meeting with two rate cuts projected in 2025.
The Federal Reserve held rates steady today, but downgraded the outlook for economic growth in the year ahead. Policy changes in Washington, looming tariffs, and a cautious consumer have made “uncertainty” the new favorite word in the Fed’s vocabulary.
In February, home values rose for the 23rd consecutive month, reaching a new all-time high, according to the Zillow Home Value Index. However, after adjusting for inflation, real home values declined for the 10th straight month, hitting their lowest level since May 2021.
When we think of the U.S. government's finances, we often focus on the massive debt. But what about the assets? What does Uncle Sam actually own, and which asset is the largest?
Existing home sales rebounded in February with their largest monthly increase in a year. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales rose 4.2% from January, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.26 million units in February.
On the predictable side, the Fed kept policy rates in a range of 4.25%-4.5%, and the rate-setting committee pledged to slow the pace at which it’s allowing securities to roll off its balance sheet.
In the understatement of 2025 thus far, the headlines emanating from Washington, D.C., have been fast and furious. Whether they be tariff-related, involving federal government cuts or geopolitical in nature, there has been a headline for many facets that investors could think of.
Recession fears have risen sharply of late as economic soft data have rolled over, upping the risk that hard data start to catch down.
European equities have started 2025 on a positive note. Several factors could help support the market overcome challenging conditions.
Since our last update of our ‘Three Tactical Rules’ on February 4, equity markets have been under pressure as the S&P 500 has retraced more than 23% of the rally that started October 2023.
The Federal Reserve concluded its second meeting of the year by keeping the federal funds rate (FFR) at 4.25-4.50%, as expected.
Bond investors will look for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to hit just the right notes in his Wednesday remarks to keep up the momentum behind a rally in the $29 trillion Treasury market.
Two Sessions, or Lianghui, is the popular name for the annual meeting of China’s top legislative and consultative bodies. These gatherings are closely watched by overseas observers as they provide key insight into China’s political landscape, economic priorities and overall policy direction.
As of the end of trading on Thursday, March 13, the S&P 500 closed down 10 percent from its all-time high, marking an official correction. It was the first correction since October 2023—17 months ago.
One of the textbook drivers of alpha is an information edge. Having more information, advanced ways to use that information, and the ability to react to it before anyone else has been a massive advantage throughout the history of markets.
What does a "correction" mean, what's likely to happen next, and what can investors do now?
A time-honored belief holds that inflation is bad for stocks, but recent developments may be challenging this view.
The U.S. housing market has been a critical factor in the broader economic landscape, and its trends have profound implications.
Gas prices were down for a fourth straight week, hitting their lowest level in two months. As of March 17th, the price of regular and premium gas were down 1 and 2 cents from the previous week, respectively. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $67.373, up 2.0% from last week.
Although annuities can offer a guaranteed income stream in retirement, they come with significant risks and complexities. It's essential to thoroughly understand these products and consider whether they align with your financial goals and risk tolerance.
For years, Federal Reserve meetings have been the main event on Wall Street as the central bank fought to contain runaway inflation.
There’s nothing like a good sale to get people excited—unless that sale happens in the stock market. Instead of celebrating a chance to buy at a discount, investors panic, dump stocks, and brace for economic doom.
Last week’s economic data was plagued by uncertainty. A brief respite in inflation pressures was overshadowed by sentiment concerns.
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Director and Senior Investment Strategist Alex Cousley discussed recent developments in the trade war and the impact on markets. He also dug into the latest U.S. economic data and provided an update on investor sentiment.
Keep calm and carry on. Recent weeks have seen financial markets rattled by swirling news headlines, tariff whiplash, and rising economic uncertainty.
Unpredictable U.S. tariff policy has heightened concerns about a potential U.S. economic recession.
This morning’s retail sales report is a bit of relief. The economy, as of the end February, is not in free fall as the control group increase of 1.0% offset the same decline in January. Nevertheless, the underlying concerns that emerged over the last few days cannot be ignored.
One of the biggest challenges investors face today is navigating the most concentrated U.S. stock market in history, where the largest stocks represent a record share of total market value.
Join the experts at ProShares for a discussion on an inflation hedged bond strategy that aims to virtually eliminate rate risk while capturing returns.
Prices can continue to rise, until they don’t. Have we reached the point where they don’t?
Nominal retail sales in February were up 0.20% month-over-month (MoM) and 3.11% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 0.02% MoM and up 0.38% YoY.
Builder confidence fell for a second straight month as economic uncertainty, tariff threats, and elevated construction costs continue to weigh on sentiment. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) dropped to 39 this month, down 3 points from February and the lowest level since August. The latest reading was below the 42 forecast.
Markets have been overwhelmed lately by the administration’s fast-paced and, many times, highly uncertain tariff measures.
Disappointing retail sales last month added to concerns of a pullback in consumer spending in the US, while a pair of business surveys suggested growing caution.
Gen Z is right to have negative feelings about the economy. Not only were its oldest members entering the workforce as the pandemic struck, but those in their early to mid-20s are also now bearing the brunt of a labor market that’s largely been frozen in place for the past two years.
The tendency of stocks to produce all their gains at night, when markets are closed, and systematically lose money during the daylight hours, has baffled researchers for four decades and potentially put retail investors at a disadvantage.
Understanding actual inflation – instead of what the media’s narrative tells you it should be – is critical to your investment planning. It is one thing for a pundit to say this or that, but it is another to look at the actual data for yourself.
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for February showed a moderate rebound last month, with headline sales rising 0.2%. Meanwhile, January's figure was revised downward to a 1.2% loss. The latest data came in weaker than the anticipated 0.6% growth in consumer spending.
Recent economic data has been all over the map. Consumer confidence sank this month to the lowest level since November 2022, yet the labor market remains strong, with historically low unemployment and rising wages.
One thing we have seen underscored in 2025 is that the bond market can change its mind very quickly, particularly as it relates to policy emanating from Washington, D.C. Following President Trump’s election win, the dominant theme in the U.S. Treasury (UST) arena was that his Administration’s policies would lead to higher budget deficits, increasing UST supply and, ultimately, higher rates for maturities like the 10-Year yield.
Stocks rebounded on Wednesday as core inflation in the United States came in below consensus expectations and news of a possible 30-day truce in the Russia-Ukraine war emerged. Big tech stocks also recovered after flirting with bear-market territory earlier this week.
During the onset of the COVID crisis, I made a note to myself to write an update in five years to discuss what happened to the markets since that trying period of time. This week, I received a task alert in Salesforce reminding me to write that update.
News headlines this week have been dominated by recession fears in the U.S., with the S&P 500 and the Magnificent 7 shedding value. Yet, amid this rising uncertainty, a positive story is emerging—the performance of European markets.
It took just 16 trading sessions for US stocks to tumble into a correction, leaving a frazzled Wall Street asking just how long the “adjustment period” White House officials have warned about will last.
Markets will be laser focused on Federal Reserve policy and economic projections next week, looking for signs about where interest rates are heading.
As of Q4 2024, the latest Fed balance sheet indicates that household net worth has risen 186% since reaching its 2009 low. However, when adjusted for inflation, household net worth has actually increased by only 93% since the 2009 trough.
Ben Inker and John Pease look at the economics of trade and tariffs at a theoretical level and explain why broadly applied tariffs are a needlessly economically way to achieve U.S. goals.
News related to tariffs, DOGE, geopolitical unrest, NVIDIA earnings, and more significantly impacted U.S. stock markets recently, with the S&P 500 retreating over 2.5% during the second half of February. There are signs that meaningful structural shifts are taking place in the market.
The 60/40 portfolio, where 60% is invested in stocks and 40% in bonds, is the initial starting point for many portfolios. The exact asset mix is often adjusted based on an investor’s time horizon, risk tolerance, and financial goals, but the simple, proportional stock-bond combination is what is often considered a “balanced” portfolio.
US stocks gained after a volatile session as dip buyers emerged after a cooler-than-forecast February inflation report.
There have been few winning strategies to seek refuge in as the stock rout sparked by President Donald Trump’s start-stop tariff war drags on for a third week.
Wholesale inflation eased significantly in February, slowing more than expected. The producer price index for final demand was flat month-over-month, down from 0.6% in January and lower than the 0.3% forecast. On an annual basis, headline PPI increased 3.2%, down from 3.7% in January and below the 3.3% forecast.
The risk of a recession in the U.S. is not zero. This is particularly true as the current Administration tackles Government bloat and implements tariffs. However, before we discuss why the risk of a recession could increase, it is crucial to remember the 2022 experience.
Germany is newly motivated to reconsider its fiscal restraint.
In a world of rich valuations and heightened geopolitical uncertainties, we believe Japanese equities are well positioned to deliver attractive returns.
Stock/bond divergence allows investors to reap the benefits of portfolio diversification, giving bond exchange-traded funds credence.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) release for February puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 2.82%. The latest reading keeps inflation below the 3.73% average since the end of the Second World War. Additionally, inflation now sits below the 10-year moving average which is now at 2.93%.
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.
Inflation cooled for the first time in five months in February. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index was at 2.8% year-over-year, lower than the expected 2.9% growth. Core CPI also came in lower than expected, cooling to 3.1% year-over-year.
US consumer prices rose at the slowest pace in four months in February, offering some reprieve ahead of tariffs that are expected to drive costs higher.
President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports came into force Wednesday, triggering concern across export-reliant Asia and immediate reprisals from the European Union and Canada as the global trade war enters a rocky phase.
Treasuries fell despite evidence of cooler-than-expected US inflation as the data ignited a rebound in stock prices that eroded demand for bonds.
President Donald Trump is attempting the most sweeping transformation of government and policy in decades. The White House is moving furiously to slash spending, expand tariffs, repeal regulations and rewrite tax rules.
As we wade into March, market volatility is at the forefront, leaving investors grappling with uncertainty surrounding tariffs and mixed economic signals. Though the S&P 500 experienced a bounce towards February's end, it slipped 1% overall, revealing lingering challenges for iconic tech stocks and the broader equity landscape.
As the consumer goes, so goes the U.S. economy. Consumers make up roughly 70 percent of U.S. GDP.
For decades, the U.S. dollar’s dominance has rested on two pillars: America’s deep capital markets and its global security alliances. Today, both are under strain.
Volatility across financial markets has become a persistent theme in 2025. The recent volatility has stemmed from a range of factors, including:
As Donald Trump’s tariffs send markets into a tailspin, pressure is mounting on the president to speed up his main proposal for juicing the economy: a sweeping tax bill.
US Treasuries surged and investors boosted their bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts Monday as fear of a economic slowdown took hold across US markets.
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped for a second straight month, falling to 100.7 in February. While optimism among small business owners moderated last month, uncertainty spiked to its second highest reading of all time.
At the start of the year, our Investment Strategy Committee outlook was positive for both the economy and the equity market, supported by strong consumer, labor market, and corporate fundamentals.
Trade policy clarity is a long way off.
Last week brought another wave of volatility to the markets, with investors grappling with mixed economic signals, geopolitical developments, and ongoing trade policy uncertainty.
It is true that tariffs are a tax. It is also true that tariff policies have been volatile…on and off again…different carve outs…different countries…phone calls that change things. All of this clearly has an impact on the market. So, we are not surprised to see stock market volatility.
Investor’s bearish sentiment has surged to levels that generally align with previous market corrections and crashes.
WEIRDness provides rewards – wealth, the pursuit of happiness, political freedom – that should cause it to succeed, over the long run, in the Darwinian competition between social systems that we call “history.” I hope it wins. WEIRD is good.
One of the bond market’s favorite trades is getting fresh momentum in Europe, as the worst rout in German bonds in more than two decades propels selling of long-term debt.
A chorus of Wall Street strategists is warning about rising volatility in the stock market, with Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson the latest to sound the alarm on slumping economic growth amid President Donald Trump’s trade wars.
Emerging-market stocks declined for a second day and currencies halted a four-day rally as concerns grew that China’s deflation is spreading to its consumer economy and Donald Trump’s tariffs threaten US growth.
Inflation
Harnessing the unique powers of commodities
Join the experts at SS&C ALPS Advisors for a product spotlight on their dynamic commodities strategy that could help your portfolio better navigate inflation and uncertainty.
Fed Watch: Let’s Just Wait and See
For the second meeting in a row, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to keep rates unchanged, leaving the Fed Funds trading range at 4.25%–4.50%.
Germany Takes the Handbrake Off
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Director and Global Head of Solutions Strategy, Van Luu, discussed the latest rate decisions from key central banks. He also talked about fiscal reform in Germany and reviewed recent U.S. market performance.
Treasury Yields Snapshot: March 21, 2025
The yield on the 10-year note ended March 21, 2025 at 4.25%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.94% and the 30-year note ended at 4.59%.
US Bonds Rise as a Cloudy Economic Path Backs Bets on Fed Cuts
US Treasuries consolidated gains in a choppy trading session with markets remaining confident that policymakers at the Federal Reserve are still on a path toward lower interest rates.
Don’t Look to the Fed for the Answer to Stagflation
The Federal Reserve’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged was right — but easy to misinterpret.
What Spooked the S&P 500? It Wasn’t the Trade War
The US stock market is on edge. The S&P 500’s recent 10% correction has investors worried, though a highly uncertain policy environment and an unusually top-heavy market obscure just what is spooking stocks.
Is 'Stagflation Lite' on tap?
he central bank made a technical move on the balance sheet, reducing the pace of permitted runoff in its Treasury holdings from $25 to $5 billion per month.
Fed Holds Steady, Cites 'Elevated Uncertainty'
The Fed held the federal funds rate steady and signaled two rate cuts this year, despite expecting inflation to remain elevated.
Economic Headwinds Chill M&A Deals
With only eight trading days left in the first quarter, M&A announcements are set to come in at their lowest level since Q2 2020.
Interest Rate Cuts Remain Likely in 2025
Despite the increase in policy uncertainty, the Federal Reserve held its forecast steady at the March FOMC meeting with two rate cuts projected in 2025.
Uncertain
The Federal Reserve held rates steady today, but downgraded the outlook for economic growth in the year ahead. Policy changes in Washington, looming tariffs, and a cautious consumer have made “uncertainty” the new favorite word in the Fed’s vocabulary.
Zillow Home Value Index: "Real" Home Values Hit Lowest Level Since May 2021
In February, home values rose for the 23rd consecutive month, reaching a new all-time high, according to the Zillow Home Value Index. However, after adjusting for inflation, real home values declined for the 10th straight month, hitting their lowest level since May 2021.
The Fed's Financial Accounts: What Are Uncle Sam's Largest Assets?
When we think of the U.S. government's finances, we often focus on the massive debt. But what about the assets? What does Uncle Sam actually own, and which asset is the largest?
Existing Home Sales Rebound 4.2% in February
Existing home sales rebounded in February with their largest monthly increase in a year. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales rose 4.2% from January, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.26 million units in February.
The Federal Reserve Is Driving Blind
On the predictable side, the Fed kept policy rates in a range of 4.25%-4.5%, and the rate-setting committee pledged to slow the pace at which it’s allowing securities to roll off its balance sheet.
From the Beltway to Main St.: Certain Uncertainty
In the understatement of 2025 thus far, the headlines emanating from Washington, D.C., have been fast and furious. Whether they be tariff-related, involving federal government cuts or geopolitical in nature, there has been a headline for many facets that investors could think of.
A Future Uncertain: Recession Coming?
Recession fears have risen sharply of late as economic soft data have rolled over, upping the risk that hard data start to catch down.
Can European Equities Regain Footing amid Global Adversity?
European equities have started 2025 on a positive note. Several factors could help support the market overcome challenging conditions.
Tactical Rules Turn More Bullish
Since our last update of our ‘Three Tactical Rules’ on February 4, equity markets have been under pressure as the S&P 500 has retraced more than 23% of the rally that started October 2023.
Fed’s Interest Rate Decision: March 19, 2025
The Federal Reserve concluded its second meeting of the year by keeping the federal funds rate (FFR) at 4.25-4.50%, as expected.
Investors Look for Fed’s Take on Growth After US Bond Rally
Bond investors will look for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to hit just the right notes in his Wednesday remarks to keep up the momentum behind a rally in the $29 trillion Treasury market.
China Stimulus: Better Luck Next Year
Two Sessions, or Lianghui, is the popular name for the annual meeting of China’s top legislative and consultative bodies. These gatherings are closely watched by overseas observers as they provide key insight into China’s political landscape, economic priorities and overall policy direction.
The Market Has Corrected: What’s Ahead?
As of the end of trading on Thursday, March 13, the S&P 500 closed down 10 percent from its all-time high, marking an official correction. It was the first correction since October 2023—17 months ago.
How To Invest with Clarity Through Market Volatility
One of the textbook drivers of alpha is an information edge. Having more information, advanced ways to use that information, and the ability to react to it before anyone else has been a massive advantage throughout the history of markets.
Market Correction: What Does It Mean?
What does a "correction" mean, what's likely to happen next, and what can investors do now?
Equities as an Inflation Hedge?
A time-honored belief holds that inflation is bad for stocks, but recent developments may be challenging this view.
The U.S. Housing Market: Risks, Realities, and the Road Ahead
The U.S. housing market has been a critical factor in the broader economic landscape, and its trends have profound implications.
Gasoline Prices Down for Fourth Straight Week
Gas prices were down for a fourth straight week, hitting their lowest level in two months. As of March 17th, the price of regular and premium gas were down 1 and 2 cents from the previous week, respectively. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $67.373, up 2.0% from last week.
Are Annuities Right for Retirement?
Although annuities can offer a guaranteed income stream in retirement, they come with significant risks and complexities. It's essential to thoroughly understand these products and consider whether they align with your financial goals and risk tolerance.
Fed Day Takes on New Meaning in Stock Market Transfixed by Trump
For years, Federal Reserve meetings have been the main event on Wall Street as the central bank fought to contain runaway inflation.
Tariffs and the Stock Market: Resist Panic, Reach for Patience
There’s nothing like a good sale to get people excited—unless that sale happens in the stock market. Instead of celebrating a chance to buy at a discount, investors panic, dump stocks, and brace for economic doom.
Weekly Economic Snapshot: Inflation Relief Tempered by Sentiment Concerns
Last week’s economic data was plagued by uncertainty. A brief respite in inflation pressures was overshadowed by sentiment concerns.
Volatility Returns With a Vengeance
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Director and Senior Investment Strategist Alex Cousley discussed recent developments in the trade war and the impact on markets. He also dug into the latest U.S. economic data and provided an update on investor sentiment.
Putting the Recent Volatility Into Perspective
Keep calm and carry on. Recent weeks have seen financial markets rattled by swirling news headlines, tariff whiplash, and rising economic uncertainty.
Schwab Market Perspective: Recession Risk Rising?
Unpredictable U.S. tariff policy has heightened concerns about a potential U.S. economic recession.
Tariffs Shake Markets as Sentiment Plummets
This morning’s retail sales report is a bit of relief. The economy, as of the end February, is not in free fall as the control group increase of 1.0% offset the same decline in January. Nevertheless, the underlying concerns that emerged over the last few days cannot be ignored.
How To Survive Falling Markets
One of the biggest challenges investors face today is navigating the most concentrated U.S. stock market in history, where the largest stocks represent a record share of total market value.
Inflation, Interest Rates and Your Bond Portfolio
Join the experts at ProShares for a discussion on an inflation hedged bond strategy that aims to virtually eliminate rate risk while capturing returns.
The Math Behind Earnings Growth Does Not Support High Stock Prices
Prices can continue to rise, until they don’t. Have we reached the point where they don’t?
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Sales Flat in February
Nominal retail sales in February were up 0.20% month-over-month (MoM) and 3.11% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 0.02% MoM and up 0.38% YoY.
NAHB Housing Market Index: Uncertainty Drags Builder Confidence to 7-Month Low
Builder confidence fell for a second straight month as economic uncertainty, tariff threats, and elevated construction costs continue to weigh on sentiment. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) dropped to 39 this month, down 3 points from February and the lowest level since August. The latest reading was below the 42 forecast.
Tariffs Noise Hides Positive Inflation Developments
Markets have been overwhelmed lately by the administration’s fast-paced and, many times, highly uncertain tariff measures.
Disappointing Retail Sales Add to Concerns About US Outlook
Disappointing retail sales last month added to concerns of a pullback in consumer spending in the US, while a pair of business surveys suggested growing caution.
Gen Z’s Job Recession Needs Urgent Attention
Gen Z is right to have negative feelings about the economy. Not only were its oldest members entering the workforce as the pandemic struck, but those in their early to mid-20s are also now bearing the brunt of a labor market that’s largely been frozen in place for the past two years.
We Still Need to Find Out Why Stocks Gains Come at Night
The tendency of stocks to produce all their gains at night, when markets are closed, and systematically lose money during the daylight hours, has baffled researchers for four decades and potentially put retail investors at a disadvantage.
The Inflationista Illuminati
Understanding actual inflation – instead of what the media’s narrative tells you it should be – is critical to your investment planning. It is one thing for a pundit to say this or that, but it is another to look at the actual data for yourself.
Retail Sales Rise 0.2% in February, Weaker Than Expected
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for February showed a moderate rebound last month, with headline sales rising 0.2%. Meanwhile, January's figure was revised downward to a 1.2% loss. The latest data came in weaker than the anticipated 0.6% growth in consumer spending.
Gold Smashes Through $3,000 as Recession Fears Mount
Recent economic data has been all over the map. Consumer confidence sank this month to the lowest level since November 2022, yet the labor market remains strong, with historically low unemployment and rising wages.
Discounting the D.C. Effect in the Bond Market
One thing we have seen underscored in 2025 is that the bond market can change its mind very quickly, particularly as it relates to policy emanating from Washington, D.C. Following President Trump’s election win, the dominant theme in the U.S. Treasury (UST) arena was that his Administration’s policies would lead to higher budget deficits, increasing UST supply and, ultimately, higher rates for maturities like the 10-Year yield.
Economic Vitals Stay Strong Amid Trade Dustup
Stocks rebounded on Wednesday as core inflation in the United States came in below consensus expectations and news of a possible 30-day truce in the Russia-Ukraine war emerged. Big tech stocks also recovered after flirting with bear-market territory earlier this week.
One of Those Times
During the onset of the COVID crisis, I made a note to myself to write an update in five years to discuss what happened to the markets since that trying period of time. This week, I received a task alert in Salesforce reminding me to write that update.
Europe – A Bright Spot Amid Market Uncertainty
News headlines this week have been dominated by recession fears in the U.S., with the S&P 500 and the Magnificent 7 shedding value. Yet, amid this rising uncertainty, a positive story is emerging—the performance of European markets.
US Stocks Face Uneven Recovery From Tariff-Triggered Correction
It took just 16 trading sessions for US stocks to tumble into a correction, leaving a frazzled Wall Street asking just how long the “adjustment period” White House officials have warned about will last.
Latest Inflation Readings Put the Federal Reserve in a Bind
Markets will be laser focused on Federal Reserve policy and economic projections next week, looking for signs about where interest rates are heading.
Household Net Worth Q4 2024: The "Real" Story
As of Q4 2024, the latest Fed balance sheet indicates that household net worth has risen 186% since reaching its 2009 low. However, when adjusted for inflation, household net worth has actually increased by only 93% since the 2009 trough.
Trade: The Most Beautiful Word in the Dictionary
Ben Inker and John Pease look at the economics of trade and tariffs at a theoretical level and explain why broadly applied tariffs are a needlessly economically way to achieve U.S. goals.
Quality Is On Sale
News related to tariffs, DOGE, geopolitical unrest, NVIDIA earnings, and more significantly impacted U.S. stock markets recently, with the S&P 500 retreating over 2.5% during the second half of February. There are signs that meaningful structural shifts are taking place in the market.
Rebuilding Resilience in 60/40 Portfolios
The 60/40 portfolio, where 60% is invested in stocks and 40% in bonds, is the initial starting point for many portfolios. The exact asset mix is often adjusted based on an investor’s time horizon, risk tolerance, and financial goals, but the simple, proportional stock-bond combination is what is often considered a “balanced” portfolio.
US Stocks Rebound After Volatile Session on Softer CPI Data
US stocks gained after a volatile session as dip buyers emerged after a cooler-than-forecast February inflation report.
Stagflation Trade Emerges as Rare Winner in US Stock Market Rout
There have been few winning strategies to seek refuge in as the stock rout sparked by President Donald Trump’s start-stop tariff war drags on for a third week.
Producer Price Index: Wholesale Inflation Eased Significantly in February
Wholesale inflation eased significantly in February, slowing more than expected. The producer price index for final demand was flat month-over-month, down from 0.6% in January and lower than the 0.3% forecast. On an annual basis, headline PPI increased 3.2%, down from 3.7% in January and below the 3.3% forecast.
The Risk Of A Recession Isn’t Zero
The risk of a recession in the U.S. is not zero. This is particularly true as the current Administration tackles Government bloat and implements tariffs. However, before we discuss why the risk of a recession could increase, it is crucial to remember the 2022 experience.
Germany’s New Deal
Germany is newly motivated to reconsider its fiscal restraint.
Three Reasons We’re Overweight Japanese Equities
In a world of rich valuations and heightened geopolitical uncertainties, we believe Japanese equities are well positioned to deliver attractive returns.
Stocks/Bonds Divergence Benefits Portfolio Diversification
Stock/bond divergence allows investors to reap the benefits of portfolio diversification, giving bond exchange-traded funds credence.
Inflation Since 1872: A Long-Term Look at the CPI
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) release for February puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 2.82%. The latest reading keeps inflation below the 3.73% average since the end of the Second World War. Additionally, inflation now sits below the 10-year moving average which is now at 2.93%.
Inside the Consumer Price Index: February 2025
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.
Consumer Price Index: Inflation Cools to 2.8% in February
Inflation cooled for the first time in five months in February. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index was at 2.8% year-over-year, lower than the expected 2.9% growth. Core CPI also came in lower than expected, cooling to 3.1% year-over-year.
US Inflation Eases, Offering Some Relief Ahead of Tariffs
US consumer prices rose at the slowest pace in four months in February, offering some reprieve ahead of tariffs that are expected to drive costs higher.
Trump Metal Tariffs Spark Retaliation Moves, Calls for Talks
President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports came into force Wednesday, triggering concern across export-reliant Asia and immediate reprisals from the European Union and Canada as the global trade war enters a rocky phase.
US Bonds Rebuff Cooler Inflation as Stock Rally Saps Demand
Treasuries fell despite evidence of cooler-than-expected US inflation as the data ignited a rebound in stock prices that eroded demand for bonds.
There’s No Recession Alarm in the Collective Wisdom of Markets
President Donald Trump is attempting the most sweeping transformation of government and policy in decades. The White House is moving furiously to slash spending, expand tariffs, repeal regulations and rewrite tax rules.
Navigating Market Turbulence: Decoding the Impact of Tariffs and Economic Trends
As we wade into March, market volatility is at the forefront, leaving investors grappling with uncertainty surrounding tariffs and mixed economic signals. Though the S&P 500 experienced a bounce towards February's end, it slipped 1% overall, revealing lingering challenges for iconic tech stocks and the broader equity landscape.
All Eyes on the Consumer: Is the Economic Engine Sputtering?
As the consumer goes, so goes the U.S. economy. Consumers make up roughly 70 percent of U.S. GDP.
Why the U.S. Dollar Is Losing Some of Its Luster
For decades, the U.S. dollar’s dominance has rested on two pillars: America’s deep capital markets and its global security alliances. Today, both are under strain.
Looking Through the Volatility
Volatility across financial markets has become a persistent theme in 2025. The recent volatility has stemmed from a range of factors, including:
Stocks/Bonds Divergence Benefits Portfolio Diversification
Stock/bond divergence allows investors to reap the benefits of portfolio diversification, giving bond exchange-traded funds credence.
Tariff Worry on Wall Street Pressures Trump to Speed Up Tax Cuts
As Donald Trump’s tariffs send markets into a tailspin, pressure is mounting on the president to speed up his main proposal for juicing the economy: a sweeping tax bill.
US Bonds Rose as Recession Angst Fuels Haven Demand
US Treasuries surged and investors boosted their bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts Monday as fear of a economic slowdown took hold across US markets.
NFIB Small Business Survey: Uncertainty is High and Rising
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped for a second straight month, falling to 100.7 in February. While optimism among small business owners moderated last month, uncertainty spiked to its second highest reading of all time.
Despite Recent Volatility, We Maintain Our Constructive Outlook
At the start of the year, our Investment Strategy Committee outlook was positive for both the economy and the equity market, supported by strong consumer, labor market, and corporate fundamentals.
A Frenzied Week for Tariffs
Trade policy clarity is a long way off.
Markets Struggle for Direction as Uncertainty Mounts
Last week brought another wave of volatility to the markets, with investors grappling with mixed economic signals, geopolitical developments, and ongoing trade policy uncertainty.
It's Not All About Tariffs
It is true that tariffs are a tax. It is also true that tariff policies have been volatile…on and off again…different carve outs…different countries…phone calls that change things. All of this clearly has an impact on the market. So, we are not surprised to see stock market volatility.
Bearish Sentiment Surges As If The Market Just Crashed
Investor’s bearish sentiment has surged to levels that generally align with previous market corrections and crashes.
It’s Good to Be Weird: Joseph Henrich’s ‘WEIRDest People in the World’ Five Years On
WEIRDness provides rewards – wealth, the pursuit of happiness, political freedom – that should cause it to succeed, over the long run, in the Darwinian competition between social systems that we call “history.” I hope it wins. WEIRD is good.
Hottest Trade in Bonds Gets Boost From German Spending Plan
One of the bond market’s favorite trades is getting fresh momentum in Europe, as the worst rout in German bonds in more than two decades propels selling of long-term debt.
Strategists See More S&P 500 Volatility as Tariff Fears Kick In
A chorus of Wall Street strategists is warning about rising volatility in the stock market, with Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson the latest to sound the alarm on slumping economic growth amid President Donald Trump’s trade wars.
Emerging Markets Decline Amid China Deflation, US Growth Worries
Emerging-market stocks declined for a second day and currencies halted a four-day rally as concerns grew that China’s deflation is spreading to its consumer economy and Donald Trump’s tariffs threaten US growth.